Choppy times, but things are accelerating towards change like a “bat out of Hell”.
The USA is in full-on “war mode”. It’s all downhill from here. Worrisome.
But, seriously, China plays a tough game, and the participants on the side of the USA are one big clown-show.
But do not worry.
MM lays out the future
Laying the groundwork for war
These Bills to punish and isolate China in the event of hostilities between US and China are only the first raft of measures against China. They are a prelude to all manner of Isolation Sanctions and Sequestration of China USD reserves and assets overseas, including the assets of Chinese individuals, defined as they please. The wave of McCarthyism sweeping the US against things Chinese can only intensify with the bipartisan support for containing China. Can the breakout of War be far behind?
Today, the House Financial Services Committee advanced several bipartisan bills during its first markup of the 118th Congress to combat the generational threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) economic aggression. This comes after the Committee held its first hearing of the Congress on combatting the economic threat from China.
The following measures were agreed to and subsequently reported to the House of Representatives:
- H.R. 554, the “Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act of 2023,” sponsored by Rep. French Hill (AR-02), will disincentivize Chinese aggression towards Taiwan by publishing the assets of top Chinese leaders, as well as cutting them and their family members off from financial services, if Beijing acts against Taiwan.
- H.R. 1076, the “Preventing the Financing of Illegal Synthetic Drugs Act,” sponsored by Rep. Monica De La Cruz (TX-15), will combat the flow of illicit Chinese fentanyl into American communities through a study on illicit financing in connection with the trafficking of synthetic drugs.
- H.R. 540, the “Taiwan Non-Discrimination Act of 2023,” sponsored by Rep. Young Kim (CA-40), will require the U.S. to advocate for Taiwan’s membership at the International Monetary Fund.
- H.R. 510, the “Chinese Currency Accountability Act of 2023,” sponsored by Rep. Warren Davidson (OH-08), will prevent the CCP from coopting critical international institutions like the International Monetary Fund by requiring the Treasury Secretary to oppose an increase in the weight of China’s renminbi in the basket of currencies determining the value of Special Drawing Rights.
- H.R. 839, the “China Exchange Rate Transparency Act of 2023,” sponsored by Rep. Dan Meuser (PA-09), will protect global market participants from the CCP’s exploitative practices by requiring the U.S. Director at the International Monetary Fund to advocate for greater transparency in China’s disclosure of its exchange rate policies.
- H.R. 803, the “PROTECT Taiwan Act,” sponsored by Rep. Frank Lucas (OK-03), will help isolate the CCP from the international financial system by directing the Federal Reserve, the Secretary of Treasury, and the Securities and Exchange Commission to exclude representatives from the People’s Republic of China from proceedings of various international financial groups and organizations in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.
- H.R. 555, the “Securing America’s Vaccines for Emergencies (SAVE) Act of 2023,” sponsored by Rep. Hill, will help end U.S. over-reliance on adversarial governments for medical supplies during an emergency by bolstering and diversifying existing supply chains through the Defense Production Act.
- H.R. 1156, the “China Financial Threat Mitigation Act of 2023,” sponsored by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (VA-07), will promote American financial resiliency by requiring the Treasury Secretary to report on global economic risks emanating from the Chinese financial sector.
- H.R. 1166, the “Public Health Emergency Medical Supplies Enhancement Act of 2023,” sponsored by Rep. Juan Vargas (CA-52), will ensure adequate stockpiles of emergency supplies by classifying certain materials as scarce during an emergency period.
- H.R. 1161, the “Aligning SEC Regulations for the World Bank’s International Development Association Act,” sponsored by Rep. Maxine Waters (CA-43), would classify securities issued by the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) as exempted securities.
China pioneers portable electromagnetic gun, sets development trend for future weapons
“Aint No Reason”Be cool 1080p Final Song Scene
How to Fight Smart (Sun Tzu)
The Chinese military general and strategist Sun Tzu, who lived around 2,500 years ago, argued that the ability to wage war is of vital importance to the state. According to him, it’s a matter of life and death, and cannot be neglected. In his manual The Art of War, Sun Tzu states that the superior way of winning a war is winning by not fighting.
But when this path, for some reason, is not accessible, then we must confront the situation with the utmost care. We must know what strategies to use in the right conditions, and which battles to enter and which to avoid. Being unskilled in the art of war can have devastating consequences. Going into battle without a plan, letting our emotions get the best of us, not taking the welfare and humanity of the army into account, or attacking a stronger opponent that we simply cannot defeat, are among the mistakes that will lead to our doom.
Hence, according to Sun Tzu we must use our intelligence to fight a war, study our enemy closely, take into account the circumstances before we attack, not overextend and exhaust ourselves, and even throw ‘honor’ out of the window by using tricks and diversions to win if necessary, as the Soviets did (quite brutally) by using suicide dogs against Nazi tanks; not for glory or fame, but for effectiveness and victory.
In a previous video about Sun Tzu, we’ve globally explored his ideas on warfare from a viewpoint of ‘winning without fighting’. This video is the first part of a series that dives deeper into Sun Tzu’s wisdom for fighting smart in war, and how we can use this to approach the battles of everyday life. The third chapter of Sun Tzu’s book focuses on choosing the right strategy, which is a good place to start our journey. Hence, this first part is based on the third chapter. Also, the elaborations in this video are partly based on the author’s interpretations and reasoning.
Using the right strategy
During his career, John Perkins stood before the Shah of Iran, the president of Indonesia, and the royal house of Saudi Arabia, offering them large sums of money if they would agree to the terms that he laid out in front of them. But if they didn’t agree, then retaliation would follow. John Perkins was an economic hitman, who helped to shape a global capitalist system that’s based on the exploitation of resources through bribery, assassination, and even war.
In his book Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, he describes the tactics that his organization used to conquer its opponents, which were generally leaders of countries. First, they would make them an offer they can’t refuse. This could be a sum of money in exchange for cheap labor or a deal with a company to pay off the country’s debt in exchange for oil. If they refused, then they would try to overthrow or assassinate them. This, according to Perkins, happened to Jaime Roldós, president of Ecuador, who didn’t want to change his plans to reorganize the hydrocarbon sector, which threatened the interests of the United States. In 1981 Roldós died in a plane crash.
In some cases, these assassination attempts failed. An example of this is Saddam Hussein, who, said Perkins, refused to implement the same oil policy as the Saudis did. In 2003, a combined force of troops invaded Iraq. In the same year, Saddam Hussein was captured. After his trial, he was executed. In no way this video intends to condone the actions described by Perkins. It’s merely a pitch-black example to illustrate how this strategy has been successfully implemented many times: unfortunately for questionable reasons and with terrible consequences. However, the strategy that the economic hitmen use resembles the tiered system that Sun Tzu proposed in the third chapter of his book, which aims to prevent violent conflict if possible.
Sun Tzu distinguished different forms of warfare. The highest form is to attack strategy, the second-highest form is to attack alliances, the next is to attack armies, and attacking cities is the last resort. In the ethical sense, we want to win without causing too many casualties because it’s the most humanitarian thing to do. Winning without fighting causes virtually no casualties, but bombing cities will result in the death of many innocent civilians.
An example of the devastating effects that choosing the last resort can have is the atomic bombings on the Japanese cities Nagasaki and Hiroshima during the Second World War. This event ended the war quickly, but it wasn’t a victory to be festive about, as these bombings resulted in a death toll of hundreds of thousands of people. With a total death toll of around seventy-five million people as a consequence of the Second World War, we can’t speak of any victory; it was a humanitarian catastrophe with mostly losers. This is something that Sun Tzu wants us to prevent.
In a pragmatic sense, we can also make a case for fighting smart by preventing not only destruction but also unnecessary effort and spending of resources. Sun Tzu states:
The rule is, not to besiege walled cities if it can possibly be avoided. The preparation of mantlets, movable shelters, and various implements of war, will take up three whole months; and the piling up of mounds over against the walls will take three months more.
Sun Tzu, The Art of War, 3.4
So, if we can, it’s always better to try fighting with efficient and non-destructive methods. The first one is to attack strategy. Attacking strategy means attacking the enemy’s plans; or, in some way, obstructing them. By doing this we solve the conflict at the root; which is the scheme from which a possible threat arises. The beauty of this method is that it doesn’t generally involve bloodshed.
Imagine, for example, a couple of coworkers are planning to reorganize your department, with the consequence that your position within the company becomes obsolete. You can sue your company as a countermove, but chances are that you’ll lose the case, and you’ll suffer great financial losses in the process. Instead, it’s more efficient to obstruct their plans, for example by convincing the management that their plans are bad, and by presenting counter plans that involve you. Or you can try to sabotage their plans in one way or another.
When this doesn’t cut it, Sun Tzu urges us to attack alliances. For example, if the obstruction of your coworkers’ plans fails, you can then try to weaken the alliances by turning people against each other. This can be done by gossiping, creating alliances yourself, and disclosing information that shows your opponents in a bad light. Admittingly, these methods aren’t the most elegant ways of achieving one’s goal. But, again, they generally don’t involve bloodshed, although they could provoke violence nonetheless.
Knowing when to fight
When none of the previous methods work, it may be a lost cause. Sure, we can try to attack the company as a whole. But we must choose our battles well. The strength of an army is limited, as is the case with ourselves and our resources. Sun Tzu lies the importance of calculations at the base of all of his strategies. Is there a chance of winning? Or is it better to avoid battle?
It is the rule in war, if our forces are ten to the enemy’s one, to surround him; if five to one, to attack him; if twice as numerous, to divide our army into two. If equally matched, we can offer battle; if slightly inferior in numbers, we can avoid the enemy; if quite unequal in every way, we can flee from him.
Sun Tzu, The Art of War, 3.8-9
If you have a reasonable chance of winning, fighting could be a viable option. But then it’s essential to remember that our resources and energy are finite. To put it pragmatically: what’s the ‘net profit’ as a result of fighting this battle? Will it improve our situation or will it drain us and leave us worse than before we entered it? Sun Tzu argued against fighting long, exhausting battles, as they do not only deplete one’s resources but also destroy the army’s morale. “There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare,” he stated.
Sun Tzu justly argues that it’s better to take a country intact and to capture a regiment, detachment, or company without harming or destroying it. With such thinking, we could also approach the battles of everyday life. If we evaluate all proposed steps in detail, will the benefits outweigh the losses or the other way around? If the latter is the case, and we’re still eager to fight, we’re probably being led by emotion rather than reason and logic. According to Sun Tzu, being led by emotion can have disastrous effects when it comes to decision-making. I quote:
The general, unable to control his irritation, will launch his men to the assault like swarming ants, with the result that one-third of his men are slain, while the town still remains untaken. Such are the disastrous effects of a siege.
Sun Tzu, The Art of War, 3.5
Wrap-up
At the end of the day, life is full of battles, and it’s best to prevent destructive confrontations if that’s possible.
Unfortunately, this isn’t always an option.
But this doesn’t mean that the degree of destructiveness cannot be mitigated. Sun Tzu teaches us that there are many shades of grey between peace and violence.
He shows us the alternatives to the equivalent of what he calls ‘siege warfare’.
If we can’t solve the problems by diplomacy, can we win by sabotaging the enemy’s plans?
Can we destroy alliances?
Can we defeat the armies and spare innocent civilians?
Sun Tzu urges us to choose our battles carefully.
This requires calculations as well as sufficient knowledge about ourselves, the enemy, and the circumstances we’re up against.
Defeating the enemy quickly and efficiently is preferable. But getting entangled in long, exhausting conflicts must be avoided.
And in some cases, when the odds are so clearly stacked against us, there’s no reasonable course of action but to give up and leave.
Thank you for watching.
Chicken Edovo
A delicious Philippine entree!
Ingredients
- 1 whole chicken
- 4 or 5 cloves garlic, minced
- 1 onion, sliced into rings
- 1 tablespoon oil
- 3/4 cups water
- 1/2 cup vinegar
- 1/3 cup soy sauce over chicken
- Salt and pepper
- 4 or 5 bay leaves
Instructions
- Rinse chicken. Cut up into small pieces.
- Brown onion rings and garlic in oil, then add chicken pieces and brown.
- Mix remaining ingredients and pour over the chicken.
- Bring to boil and cook covered until chicken is tender and done.
- Taste juice. Add more vinegar or soy sauce to your taste.
- Serve chicken and juice over rice.
82-Year-Old Man Covers DROWNING POOLS “Bodies” on Americas Got Talent!
This guy is fucking living life. Man! I hope that I still can rage like him at 83!
This software reveals true color of ‘Summit for Democracy’: Global Times editorial
U.S. calls for joint G-7 action to prevent China’s economic bullying – Nikkei Asia
How would the G7 countries respond? French company TotalEnergies just sold LNG to China in RMB. A revolt, a rebellion, and from a major ally. With Russia, Brazil and very soon Saudi Arabia as well as other Gulf States selling their oil and gas in RMB, we will see more of similar reports. With Aramco's refinery investments in China, delivering upwards of 700,000 barrels a day, it means that China will be selling finished products to ASEAN and surrounding countries needing energy to develop their economies (may even include American lapdogs). All of that will, of course, be in RMB. As petro-dollar gets eaten up by petro-yuan, so goes dollar-hegemony. At some point, the US will be forced by its loss of dollar-hegemony to act responsibly. No longer will it be able to continue with its profligate printing and inflating. No longer will it be able to ask the rest of the world to suffer the consequences of its QEs. No longer will it be able to create unlimited funds to fuel wars and feed its MIC. No longer will it be able to sanction anyone at will. That is how an empire falls, and that is the global change unseen in a century. I actually predicted this in a Quora article when Trump started the US-China Trade War in 2018. I'm no prophet. All I did was stop believing in lies. Read the comments too. Some of my replies are brutal. I really haven't done much on Quora, maybe starting again after finishing my trilogy, which is taking very long. Here is a cleaner copy on my blog page. I won't end this without another prediction. This may surprise some people because you can't depend on pundits to tell you any real insight. The fall of the empire will cause great changes for Israel and Palestine. A lot of the move to the east by Arabian countries is caused by an unspoken sliver of pain and humiliation stuck in the heart of most Arabs, There are 450 million Arabs surrounding less than 10 million Israelis, of which over 20% are Arabs. The walls that Israel built to imprison the Palestinians will become prison walls for the future Israel if they do not see the writing on the wall. The Jews will survive as they have survived for millenia. The state of Israel has come and gone in the past, and if the modern state of Israel continues on its current path, no one will weep a single tear when it gets replaced by a just and peaceful entity, probably under another name. And they can kiss their shekels goodbye. PM
Owners Let Their Norwegian Forest Cat Roam Freely Outside, And He Looks Majestic
In March 2018, Camilla from Norway fell head over heels in love with an 8-week-old kitten she saw online. It was a Norwegian Forest cat looking for his forever home. In the photo that captivated Camilla, the little rascal was simply irresistible, tilting his head and staring at the woman from the screen with the biggest, most innocent eyes she had ever seen.
“I was completely sold,” Camilla told Bored Panda. “A few moments later, [there was no question about it]. Me and my boyfriend Sondre were going to become cat owners. In May, we brought home the sweetest little ball of fur. He made us so happy.”
More: Instagram h/t: boredpanda
Bubbles and the Shitrockers (feat. Alex Lifeson) – Who’s Got Yer Belly
Moscow Diary: The Capital of the Multipolar World
This is about Russia-China - and beyond. After nearly 4 decades as a foreign correspondent all over the planet, I am not exactly impressed by anything anymore. But my four weeks in Moscow that felt like decades - in the eye of the hurricane - were something on a whole new level. I did manage to talk to some of the Chinese sherpas in Xi's delegation. Preferred to keep it private. The diary was originally published on Strategic Culture - totally censored all across NATOstan. And yet ZeroHedge picks up a lot of my columns - without mentioning the source - so now tons of Americans are reading it. Talk about a Sun Tzu media move. All the best to all of you, Pepe Link HERE
Escobar: The Capital Of The Multipolar World – A Moscow Diary
In Moscow you feel no crisis. No effects of sanctions. No unemployment. No homeless people in the streets. Minimal inflation.
How sharp was good ol’ Lenin, prime modernist, when he mused, “there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”. This global nomad now addressing you has enjoyed the privilege of spending four astonishing weeks in Moscow at the heart of an historical crossroads – culminating with the Putin-Xi geopolitical game-changing summit at the Kremlin.
To quote Xi, “changes that haven’t been seen in 100 years” do have a knack of affecting us all in more ways than one.
James Joyce, another modernity icon, wrote that we spend our lives meeting average and/or extraordinary people, on and on and on, but in the end we’re always meeting ourselves. I have had the privilege of meeting an array of extraordinary people in Moscow, guided by trusted friends or by auspicious coincidence: in the end your soul tells you they enrich you and the overarching historical moment in ways you can’t even begin to fathom.
Here are some of them. The grandson of Boris Pasternak, a gifted young man who teaches Ancient Greek at Moscow State University. A historian with unmatched knowledge of Russian history and culture. The Tajik working class huddling together in a chaikhana with the proper ambience of Dushanbe.
Chechens and Tuvans in awe doing the loop in the Big Central Line. A lovely messenger sent by friends extremely careful about security matters to discuss issues of common interest. Exceptionally accomplished musicians performing underground in Mayakovskaya. A stunning Siberian princess vibrant with unbounded energy, taking that motto previously applied to the energy industry – Power of Siberia – to a whole new level.
A dear friend took me to Sunday service at the Devyati Muchenikov Kizicheskikh church, the favorite of Peter the Great: the quintessential purity of Eastern Orthodoxy. Afterwards the priests invited us for lunch in their communal table, displaying not only their natural wisdom but also an uproarious sense of humor.
At a classic Russian apartment crammed with 10,000 books and with a view to the Ministry of Defense – plenty of jokes included – Father Michael, in charge if Orthodox Christianity relations with the Kremlin, sang the Russian imperial anthem after an indelible night of religious and cultural discussions.
I had the honor to meet some of those who were particularly targeted by the imperial machine of lies. Maria Butina – vilified by the proverbial “spy who came in from the cold” shtick – now a deputy at the Duma. Viktor Bout – which pop culture metastasized into the “Lord of War”, complete with Nic Cage movie: I was speechless when he told me he was reading me in maximum security prison in the USA, via pen drives sent by his friends (he had no internet access). The indefatigable, iron-willed Mira Terada – tortured when she was in a U.S. prison, now heading a foundation protecting children caught in hard times.
I spent much treasured quality time and engaged in invaluable discussions with Alexander Dugin – the crucial Russian of these post-everything times, a man of pure inner beauty, exposed to unimaginable suffering after the terrorist assassination of Darya Dugina, and still able to muster a depth and reach when it comes to drawing connections across the philosophy, history and history of civilizations spectrum that is virtually unmatched in the West.
On the offensive against Russophobia
And then there were the diplomatic, academic and business meetings. From the head of international investor relations of Norilsk Nickel to Rosneft executives, not to mention the EAEU’s Sergey Glazyev himself, side by side with his top economic adviser Dmitry Mityaev, I was given a crash course on the current A to Z of Russian economy – including serious problems to be addressed.
At the Valdai Club, what really mattered were the meetings on the sidelines, much more than the actual panels: that’s when Iranians, Pakistanis, Turks, Syrians, Kurds, Palestinians, Chinese tell you what is really in their hearts and minds.
The official launch of the International Movement of Russophiles was a special highlight of these four weeks. A special message written by President Putin was read by Foreign Minister Lavrov, who then delivered his own speech. Later, at the House of Receptions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, four of us were received by Lavrov at a private audience. Future cultural projects were discussed. Lavrov was extremely relaxed, displaying his matchless sense of humor.
This is a cultural as much as a political movement, designed to fight Russophobia and to tell the Russian story, in all its immensely rich aspects, especially to the Global South.
I am a founding member and my name is on the charter. In my nearly four decades as a foreign correspondent, I have never been part of any political/cultural movement anywhere in the world; nomad independents are a fierce breed. But this is extremely serious: the current, irredeemably mediocre self-described “elites” of the collective West want no less than cancel Russia all across the spectrum. No pasarán.
Spirituality, compassion, mercy
Decades happening in only four weeks imply precious time needed to put it all in perspective.
The initial gut feeling the day I arrived, after a seven-hour walk under snow flurries, was confirmed: this is the capital of the multipolar world. I saw it among the West Asians at the Valdai. I saw it talking to visiting Iranians, Turks and Chinese. I saw it when over 40 African delegations took over the whole area around the Duma – the day Xi arrived in town. I saw it throughout the reception across the Global South to what Xi and Putin are proposing to the overwhelming majority of the planet.
In Moscow you feel no crisis. No effects of sanctions. No unemployment. No homeless people in the streets. Minimal inflation. Import substitution in all areas, especially agriculture, has been a resounding success. Supermarkets have everything – and more – compared to the West. There’s an abundance of first-rate restaurants. You can buy a Bentley or a Loro Pianna cashmere coat you can’t even find in Italy. We laughed about it chatting with managers at the TSUM department store. At the BiblioGlobus bookstore, one of them told me, “We are the Resistance.”
By the way, I had the honor to deliver a talk on the war in Ukraine at the coolest bookshop in town, Bunker, mediated by my dear friend, immensely knowledgeable Dima Babich. A huge responsibility. Especially because Vladimir L. was in the audience. He’s Ukrainian, and spent 8 years, up to 2022, telling it like it really was to Russian radio, until he managed to leave – after being held at gunpoint – using an internal Ukrainian passport. Later we went to a Czech beer hall where he detailed his extraordinary story.
In Moscow, their toxic ghosts are always lurking in the background. Yet one cannot but feel sorry for the psycho Straussian neocons and neoliberal-cons who now barely qualify as Zbig “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski’s puny orphans.
In the late 1990s, Brzezinski pontificated that, “Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical center because its very existence as an independent state helps transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.”
With or without a demilitarized and denazified Ukraine, Russia has already changed the narrative. This is not about becoming a Eurasian empire again. This is about leading the long, complex process of Eurasia integration – already in effect – in parallel to supporting true, sovereign independence across the Global South.
I left Moscow – the Third Rome – towards Constantinople – the Second Rome – one day before Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev gave a devastating interview to Rossiyskaya Gazeta once again outlining all the essentialities inherent to the NATO vs. Russia war.
This is what particularly struck me: “Our centuries-old culture is based on spirituality, compassion and mercy. Russia is a historical defender of sovereignty and statehood of any peoples who turned to it for help. She saved the U.S. itself at least twice, during the Revolutionary War and the Civil War. But I believe that this time it is impractical to help the United States maintain its integrity.”
In my last night, before hitting a Georgian restaurant, I was guided by the perfect companion off Pyatnitskaya to a promenade along the Moscow River, beautiful rococo buildings gloriously lighted, the scent of Spring – finally – in the air. It’s one of those “Wild Strawberry” moments out of Bergman’s masterpiece that hits the bottom of our soul. Like mastering the Tao in practice. Or the perfect meditative insight at the top of the Himalayas, the Pamirs or the Hindu Kush.
So the conclusion is inevitable. I’ll be back. Soon.
Trailer park boys, jroc KNOW WHAT I’M SAYING?
By Global Times
As US armchair politicians and analysts are hyping up a possible war, true American warriors are calling for peace. Everyone needs to calm down about war with China, top US general Mark Milley said on Friday in an interview with Defense One. On Monday, Taipei Times published a front-page story featuring Milley’s rhetoric.
According to Defense One, the China heat is on following this year’s Chinese balloon saga. In the past few weeks, members of Congress in hearings aimed a list of concerns about China – everything from nuclear weapons to computer chips, “invading” Taiwan, and allying with Russia – at Milley and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. “Milley has taken to telling lawmakers that war with China – and Russia – is not imminent or inevitable. It’s part of an effort to lower the heat,” Defense One reported, citing Milley and adding that Milley stressed a more realistic and less emotional approach is needed when dealing with China-US ties.
Milley clearly recognizes the predicament the US faces amid US politicians and media’s excessive hype of tensions with China. To some extent, he was saying that something has gone wrong in the US’ China policy, and the problem is mainly on the US side.
As a career soldier, Milley realizes when the US displays overly hawkish hostility against China, it goes far beyond the actual needs of American national interests. Thus, he made his point – the US military should not be dragged into a war with China for hysterical reasons, in other words, for the constant hype of unreasonable tensions, Shen Yi, a professor at Fudan University, told the Global Times.
Taiwan regional leader Tsai Ing-wen is on a visit to Central America with a planned stop-by in California and a scheduled meeting with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. US officers, think tanks, and media have been sparing no effort to stir up troubles about the Taiwan question long before the trip. They either constantly make speculations on the timetable of a possible cross-Straits war, or simulate war games on the possible American cost of such a conflict.
When American elites who have never fought in a war are obsessed with talking out loud about a military showdown, Milley remains sober. He is well aware that it is not journalists nor politicians who will have to fight on the front lines. And he knows it is not in the US’ interest to actually fight a war against China. For a career military personnel, it is more important to boost deterrence than actually joining a hot war.
More importantly, it is completely unrealistic for the US to confront both China and Russia militarily simultaneously. Milley is aware of the strength of American military power; thus, he knows that Washington should not provoke Beijing and Moscow at the same time. Otherwise, the US will simply wreck its capability to seek absolute military hegemony worldwide, Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times.
Milley’s argument is objective and calculative. After calling for a cooling down of tensions, he said that he prefers the “speak softly, carry a big stick” tactic – lowering the rhetoric a little bit while making sure the US has an incredibly powerful military that is capable. And he agrees with calls for the US to send arms to Taiwan island as quickly as possible.
It means that despite the fact that the US still has a clear military advantage, such an advantage is no longer overwhelming. Hence Milley believes a military means is not an option before it has a sufficient advantage in the armed forces.
That’s the reason for ceaseless US arms sales to the Taiwan island – the US is not preparing to fight China; it is preparing Taiwan island to fight the Chinese mainland. The US won’t willingly sacrifice itself to help Taiwan secessionist forces, but it is willing to fight a proxy war, using the Taiwan island as a consumable or a pawn.
The US still remains the most powerful country on the globe, but its toxic political environment has been eroding its strength since the end of the Cold War. The toxic environment is what drives Milley’s concerns on whether the US’ might can be long-lasting.
China’s development and the US’ decline are not directly related. And the current era is no longer one in which one country can play a dominant role with purely military power. Benign competition can help both China and the US develop. If China becomes strong enough one day, it will be grateful to both its friends and strong competitors, including the US, Song said.
The US is too anxious and hysterical, because it has lost its way and is on the wrong path.
Bratwurst
Ingredients
- 1 pound link bratwurst
- 2 green bell peppers, cut into strips
- 2 medium onions, sliced
- 2 tablespoons olive oil
- 1 teaspoon garlic salt
- 1 teaspoon basil
Instructions
- Heat the olive oil in a large skillet.
- Cut the bratwurst into 1-inch pieces and brown well in the skillet.
- Add the peppers and onions and sauté until cooked, stirring frequently.
- Season and mix well.
OPEC CUTS OIL PRODUCTION
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Within the past few hours today, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has agreed to a cut of one million barrels a day in oil production. This comes just after Russia announced a cut of its own by 500,000 barrels per day.
These cuts will now drive UP the price of oil and, by extension, gasoline and Diesel fuel.
Since the illegitimate Biden regime here in the US has drained much of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the regime is now UNABLE to counter this loss of daily production.
UPDATE 6:00 PM EDT —
The White House has reportedly responded to OPEC+’s decision to cut crude production by 1 million barrels/day by saying that “output cuts aren’t advisable right now,” adding that The White House is “focused on prices for American consumers.”
Recall too, Biden threatened the Saudis with “consequences” over last October’s 2 million barrel oil cut but then he took no action.
Let’s see if this new OPEC cut elicits any further response.
Hal Turner Remark: This is a squeeze play against us. They know our idiot in chief has already depleted our strategic oil reserves to artificially lower prices so and they know his options are now very limited. He either continues to deplete those reserves from an already dangerous level or prices are going up.
Best CHINESE SCIENTISTS Are Leaving The United States For China
https://youtu.be/JU5S22pbJgI
GT Voice: China is best safe haven; global investors shouldn’t miss out because of politics
For months, China’s swift economy recovery has been making headlines around the world, often portrayed as the only “bright spot” across a slowing global economy. But what does such a recovery look like? What does it mean for global investors? There was no clear, full picture, and there were some doubts, especially in foreign media.
But, a growing number of recent signs suggest that the pace of the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is faster than many have expected. In March, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI), a gauge of factory activity, beat some economists’ forecasts and reached 51.9, well within expansion territory. What’s more, the PMI reading for the non-manufacturing sector jumped to 58.2.
And things may be just getting started. Following the two sessions, where China set an annual GDP growth target of about 5 percent this year, Chinese officials at all levels have moved swiftly to further speed up the economic recovery, with a series of policy measures. On Friday, Zhu Zhongming, a vice minister of finance, said China will step up fiscal support for the economy, including tax and fee reductions for businesses. The extended and optimized tax and fee cuts are expected to reduce more than 480 billion yuan ($69.9 billion) in costs for market players.
What’s more, various central government departments and local governments have also launched what appears to be a nationwide campaign to improvement business climate for businesses. Just over the past several days, provincial governments from Northeast China’s Liaoning Province to South China’s Hainan Province held special meetings for the effort.
All of this points to an optimistic picture for China’s economic recovery. Amid the growing signs of rapid recovery, the World Bank, in a report on Friday, raised its forecast for China’s growth by 0.6 percentage point to 5.1 percent in 2023. Some context will help better grasp the scale of China’s recovery this year. For the Asia Pacific, growth excluding that of China will slow to 4.9 percent this year, down 0.9 percentage point from 2022. For the world economy, growth will average 2.2 percent throughout the rest of the decade, according to the World Bank. So, from every aspect, China’s growth will be the bright spot for the world economy – and an ideal market for global businesses seeking growth.
And that’s not all. While China is on a stable trajectory toward recovery, advanced economies like the US and the eurozone are facing both significant slowdowns and the risk of financial and banking crises. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and some other banks in the US and the failure of Credit Suisse in Switzerland exposed the profound risks in the Western banking system. While Western officials have repeatedly claimed that a broader crisis is not imminent, investors are understandably jittery and in desperate need for viable options to cushion the risks in advanced economies. And where they could find such options? One word: China.
There is no shortage of fearmongering headlines pushed by the Western media reports about China’s economy. Their assertion is often based on hearsay or outright lies. They claimed that China is increasingly “hostile” to foreign businesses and many foreign businesses are abandoning the Chinese market. But they ignored the steadily increases in foreign investment into China, even during the toughest period of the epidemic. In 2022, foreign direct investment into China grew 6.3 percent to 1.23 trillion yuan. That doesn’t exactly look like a “mass business exodus” from China, does it?
Also, there are the ever growing calls for “decoupling” or “reducing reliance” from US and other Western officials, asserting that it is unsafe for foreign businesses to invest in China. But for any fair-minded person, it should be crystal clear which country is making it unsafe for cross-border investments. In a desperate attempt to preserve its shrinking global dominance, the US is picking fights, economic or otherwise, around the world. It is adopting protectionist policies at home to bolster its domestic industries. Externally, it is imposing unilateral sanctions on any country it deems to be unfriendly. Worse yet, it is now exporting risks of financial and banking crises to the world.
Many multinationals are fully aware of what is actually happening on the ground. And if there was any doubt about China’s continuously expanding market access and improving business climate for global businesses, face-to-face meetings with Chinese officials at two major forums – China Development Forum and the Boao Forum for Asia – should offer sufficient reassurance. For businesses around the world that seek win-win cooperation, don’t miss out on China just because of geopolitical ramblings in the US.
Old South Silken Peanut Soup
Ingredients
Soup
- 4 tablespoons butter
- 1 onion, chopped
- 2 celery stalks with leaves, chopped
- 2 tablespoons flour
- 5 cups chicken stock (or vegetable stock which is not traditional)
- 2/3 cup creamy peanut butter
- 2/3 cup heavy cream
Garnish
- Dribbles of heavy cream
- Finely-minced celery leaves
Instructions
- Sauté onion and celery in the butter until soft, but not brown. Stir in the flour and cook, stirring, for about 30 seconds.
- Stir in the stock a little at a time, whisking, then bring to a boil. Reduce heat and let simmer for 15 minutes.
- Puree, solids first, then whisk in peanut butter and cream until the soup is smooth.
- When ready to serve, reheat (don’t let boil), then ladle into small bowls.
- Dribble 1/2 teaspoon of cream in a pretty pattern, then sprinkle with minced celery leaves and finely crushed peanuts.
- Serve immediately.
- Serve hot as a first course.
Survivor of last week’s Tornados talks about his “Preps” and what went wrong
I found this story while surfing the web and thought it would be very relevant and helpful to my readers. It’s from a guy who survived the Tornados in Little Rock, Arkansas this week. Quick read . . .
My City Being Hit By A Tornado Taught A lot About The Limits Of My PREPS Ok, so we live in Little Rock. An entire swath of the city from basically the southwest toward the river just looks like a bomb went off. Been without power since the Tornado struck our neighborhood, luckily for my family, our home was spared any significant damage. Though it was one of the scariest things I've ever been through. There is nothing like holding your wife and daughter in a pitch black bathroom while it sounds like a freight train is barreling through your entire world. With that said we've been running off preps at the moment and I have learned a lot about things. 1) Bad things happen FAST. It was just a "normal afternoon" and lucky for us we were all home, but within the span of hardly anytime we went from tornado sirens, to all in the sheltered part of our home, to what sounded like the world was being torn apart outside, to no power, no cell service, no nothing within minutes. Having plans of how to get in touch or meet up should we have all been separated are non existent really and I need to make one and improve on that. 2)Ham radio was a lifesaver. Literally. Remember cell service went down instantly here. A tower was crumped like a pretzel and no one could call out or in. I was listening and talking on the 2M repeater here in town right before the storm after the warning went off with storm spotters. After the tornado moved on I quickly began checking on neighbors. Ingress and egress to the neighborhood was blocked by downed trees. Within minutes I was able to get a group of hams from close by and their friends and other neighbors with chainsaws to make quick work of cutting and moving them. This allowed for emergency services to get in quickly and rescue an elderly resident from her home who may have been having a heart attack. Without this kind of ability to quickly coordinate, void of grid comms, I don't know if that would have been so efficient. More people need to at the least their Technician license, and be active on simplex and their local repeaters. 3) You need more gas. I need more gas. I keep two 5 gallon NATO jerry cans USUALLY full. When I fill up our truck I will fill them up also, then have gotten into the bad habit of using that gas and not filling them up immediately. Bad mistake. I had to make a run, after the pandemonium, to a gas station with power. Not smart. This was a failure on my part. Never again will I be without gas on hand for my generator. Also adding two more jerry cans. Keep oil on hand too for your generator and the oil changed. Luckily I done so very recently. 4) Luckily for us the weather is quite pleasant, so our small generator need only run our fridge, freezer, etc. But we are heavily reliant on gas for our cooking and water. Should the gas lines be down (if they need repair) these service would not work. Need more public gas independent methods of doing this things. I have a small camp stove but with limited propane this isn't great. Adding keeping LP on hand and a camp shower and solar shower option. 5) There are VERY FEW PEOPLE PREPARED. It definitely made me aware of how after a few days without supplies people will be coming FOR YOUR SHIT. There is only a handful of people in my neighborhood with generators. We are being generous and allowing people to charge phones, laptops, etc. But at night, when all the lights were out and there was no cell service, It certainly made me aware that my whirring generator and the smell from my neighbors grill cooking steaks, would be a call for starving and desperate in times of need. Definitely makes one consider the bug in / bug out argument. I don't have a definitive response for that at the moment, just making notice. These leftist idiots sayings stupid shit like "why does anyone NEED an AR15?" Well that's why. Your shit will be at the least harder to take if you are well armed and able to defend against MULTIPLE attackers. 6) Candles Candles Candles. Flashlights are good but you need more candles. Buy a big ass pack of tea lights or a few. Buy a case. You need more than you think. Again flashlights are great, definitely headlamps are VERY helpful. 7) Should this event have happened in the bitter cold of winter we can heat our home with wood, and usually have plenty, had it been the 100 degree summer, this would really suck. A small window AC unit is probably a good investment to at least be able to keep one room comfortable. Buying one. We now have cell service back, though power is still out. It is not estimated to be back on until very late this evening, thought he lineman working our area said that was itself a very optimistic window. So far, no loss of life that I know of, which is surprising when you actually see the damage this tornado caused. Godspeed. Stay prepared. Shit goes crazy in a snap. It's never the thing you see coming that gets you.
China EximBank, Saudi National Bank achieve first loan cooperation in yuan
Chinese college developed 4th-generation chip materials, invalidating European and US restrictions.
ChatGPT prompts and result
China and the United States: A Comparative Analysis of Their Balance Sheets In recent years, China and the United States have emerged as two of the world's largest economic powers, with significant influence on global financial markets. As such, it is essential to take a closer look at their respective balance sheets to understand their economic strengths and weaknesses. In this analysis, we will examine the balance sheets of China and the United States, and compare their government, corporate, and household finances. Government Finances: In terms of government finances, both China and the United States have a significant amount of debt. China's national debt as a percentage of GDP stands at around 60%, while the United States' national debt is at around 107% of GDP. However, it is worth noting that China has a higher level of foreign reserves, which are around $3 trillion, compared to the United States' reserves of $121 billion. This indicates that China has a higher level of financial security in the event of a financial crisis. Corporate Finances: When it comes to corporate finances, China has a higher level of corporate debt than the United States. This can be attributed to the significant amount of investment made in the country's infrastructure and real estate sector in recent years. However, it is important to note that China's corporate debt is largely held by state-owned enterprises, which could pose a potential risk to the economy in the event of an economic downturn. On the other hand, the United States has a higher level of equity financing, with a more significant proportion of corporate financing coming from the stock market. This suggests that the United States' corporate sector may be more resilient in the face of economic challenges. Household Finances: In terms of household finances, China has a higher level of household savings than the United States. This can be attributed to the cultural differences between the two countries, where Chinese households tend to save a higher proportion of their income compared to American households. However, it is important to note that China's household savings are largely held in low-yielding bank accounts, which may not provide adequate returns over time. On the other hand, American households have a higher level of equity investments, which have historically provided higher returns over the long-term. Overall, it is evident that both China and the United States have unique strengths and weaknesses in their respective balance sheets. While China has a higher level of foreign reserves and household savings, it also has a higher level of corporate debt held by state-owned enterprises. In contrast, the United States has a higher level of equity financing and a more significant proportion of corporate financing coming from the stock market. By understanding the strengths and weaknesses of each economy, policymakers in both countries can make informed decisions to promote economic growth and stability. In conclusion, it is clear that both China and the United States have significant economic influence on the global stage. By examining their respective balance sheets, we can gain a better understanding of their economic strengths and weaknesses. As policymakers in the United States continue to navigate economic challenges, it is essential that they take into account the lessons learned from China's economic model to achieve long-term stability and growth.
White House ADMITS Countries worldwide Refusing U.S. Dollar
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White House spokeswoman Karin Jean-Pierre was asked what the Biden regime was doing about countries switching away from US Dollars and using their own currency as settlement of foreign trade. Her response was stunning . . . .
"Switching to national currencies is a violation of the rights of American citizens."
The White House then threatened with sanctions those countries that refuse the dollar in mutual settlements.
It’s already trending on social media:
So there you have it. Countries around the world have, IN FACT, either stated their intention to cease accepting the US Dollar, or have already begun refusing the US Dollar.
The White House has now tacitly acknowledged it.
This is now a slow-moving train wreck for the United States. Our federal government has abused so many countries with our “economic sanctions” and has done it for so long, that countries around the world have begun rejecting the US dollar as a means of payment for international trade.
If countries no longer accept the US Dollar, then the US Government has no means by which to impose economic sanctions. The US Government becomes toothless against all those foreign nations.
On top of the economic sanctions abuse, that same US federal government has over-spent by so much, and run-up so much debt, that the world is rapidly losing faith that the US dollar will have __any__ value at all.
What this means for you and me here in the USA, is that hyper-inflation is already on its way.
Here’s why:
For almost 100 years, the US Dollar has been __THE__ currency for the world. It has been the only reliable currency for everyone.
No matter what country chose to trade with any OTHER country, both countries knew that settling the trade in US dollars preserved the value of their trade and was a rock-solid measure of value.
In order to be able to smoothly carry out those foreign trades, central banks all over the world, kept a supply a US Dollars in their central banks, so trade could be settled.
As of right now, at least six point four TRILLION U.S. Dollars, are resting in the central banks around the world.
As more and more countries cease using the dollar, foreign banks will no longer need to keep those dollars in their central banks.
Those dollars will begin to come home to the USA.
As those dollars come home, the value of the US dollar, against foreign currencies, will begin to drop. (Because nobody will want the Dollars)
Now, we here in the USA don’t manufacture much of anything anymore. Thanks to the corporate imbeciles who pushed us into becoming a “service economy” much of our manufacturing was shipped out to foreign countries.
Then, thanks to the other imbeciles who pushed “Free Trade” we removed Tariffs from foreign goods imported into our country. The idea was sold to us by the “Free Trade” shysters who claimed that if the US dropped tariffs, then all other countries would drop tariffs and that would mean American-made products would be cheaper overseas, thereby increasing demand, thereby increasing American jobs.
THAT WAS A FRAUD.
The people pushing “Free Trade” had no intention at all of selling American-made products to more foreign countries. What they ACTUALLY wanted was to ship American JOBS to foreign countries, use the cheap foreign labor, then sell those same products back here in the USA for the same high prices and without Tariffs! That allowed the manufacturers to pocket the increased profits from using cheap foreign labor but still sell the same good here in the US for the same high price.
In the end, it was only American JOBS that got exported, not American products.
So we now see the result of the “double-whammy.” Hit #1 was when we changed to a “service economy”. Hit #2 was when we bought into the “Free Trade” lie which allowed corporate Boards of Directors to move manufacturing jobs OUT of the USA to pocket the profits from cheap foreign labor.
Which brings us back to the value of the US Dollar. Since we don’t manufacture much here anymore, and have to buy MOST of the things we use from foreign manufacturers’, as the value of the dollar plummets, everything we need to buy will become FAR more expensive; several hundred percent more expensive!!!
This is what YOUR members of the US House of Representatives, and YOUR members of the US Senate have done. They have abused so many countries with the threat or actual application of economic sanctions, that those countries are now abandoning the US dollar AND, they’ve so over-spent that people worldwide now see the US Dollar as being UNRELIABLE and heading toward being worthless.
YOUR member of Congress caused this.
YOUR member of the Senate caused this.
When YOU cannot afford food and YOUR family is going hungry . . . or when YOU cannot buy the typical normal things that every family needs . . . .remember that when you see your members of Congress and the Senate on the street.
When you see them, hold them accountable right then and there.
China uses “Dual-chip Architecture” to counterattack USA, China doesn’t need to buy U.S. chips!
A little story
Hi <redacted>, My feedback on your 10 questions was that I thought they would need to be reframed to a less complicated language. A little of my own history, specifically because I recognized some years ago the war propaganda against China, I asked the Saker at the now frozen site if I could write a regular column on China. That site was in existence specifically to fight the empire's war on Russia and as recent history unfolded, we saw the very same war on China. It has been there for a long time but now only some years ago did it reach a prominence. But I was outside the focus of the Saker's site and had to be careful and could not be too enthusiastic on China. That was simply the norms of the site, and not anyone's shortcomings but lead to me to design the weekly articles as a magazine style and not too threatening to then existent propagandized minds. I knew we had to go broader, as the initial war on Russia was only a part of the development of the world and the war on China was equally and even actually more important. This could not be done on the then existent Saker site, and this is why I opened globalsouth.co - for a broader view on our world and the process of multipolarization and a fair economic structure globally. China is a massive part of that and a leader. Initially the China content was to say the least not welcome and I was beaten to a pulp. This is what I learned:
- Debunking takes too much time away from productive activities. Your article quoted here I would handle simply as follows: “This is a falun gong newspaper and that specific article repeats regularly, sometimes quoting organs are being taken from falun gong, and in other cases quoting organs being taken from the supposed ‘Uyghur concentration camps’ in Xinjiang. And then I would add links like: – What is falun gong, -What is happening in Xinjiang and other such appropriate or something that I had pre-developed. Should the commentator come back with more gripes, without reading the background material, I could not be less interested because it is a waste of time to get involved in this granular level of bickering, trying to inform those that do not want to be informed.
- A clear understanding that I cannot, even on such a big site as the now frozen Saker site, do a great deal to change minds. And this lead to …
- A surprise finding. On those articles I started following the elephants that went walk-about, every week. This lovely and emotional story engaged people and changed minds and hearts. People would start asking me to please keep updating on the elephants. People would start comparing how their country would have handled something like that. And as the elephants walked, the China story grew. Who would have thunk?
- At the end of the range of articles, the positive comments outweighted the negative comments materially.
- I took the direct feedback from the previous week’s articles, to design the content for the next week on the smaller magazine article mostly drawn from Godfree’s newsletter (and I am so grateful for that!) and a bigger article. That worked and now, if I do a China article, there is no negativity. I get email asking me to handle certain issues and it has changed to a net positive. It is as if people, at least in our grouping, now are open to want to know, and not fight. The minds have opened.
This personally designed process lead to major articles on say Governance or Economy or Technology, or Propaganda, and these were eventually tolerated on that site. But it took time. I had to swallow and tolerate comments such as "The Mad Han on the Saker Site probably eats baby organs for breakfast". We now have a problem in our fraternal sites. Seemingly some Russian commentators are creating polarization in the Russian/Chinese relationship. I just handled one of those and surprisingly I had some Russians write me to say ... High Time that someone said something! These commentators are following the western line. And took it back to their sites. So far, I have not made enemies among the fraternal sites even with professional and respectful critique of this sore point. Again, I won't change minds, but I find that many are now much more careful on how they phrase their issues. We gotta be thankful for small mercies yes. So, to end, one has to decide what suits your own style. In reality, I am not the savior of the west, their alt media, and their cockamamie ideas and propaganda about China. The simplest question now is: OK, you don't believe the propaganda about Russia, so, don't you think the story about China is equally propagandized and contrived in order to war against China? I personally am best placed to inform those that are already interested and willing to work at it, and in such a way build a network effect. So far, I have not even one infographic developed, but I do have an extensive library for things like Free Tibet, or China is our Enemy, Tiananmen Square, the development of western propaganda, or such topical issues. So, this is my own story. A blend of encouraging those that are interested but know nothing, ruthlessly pruning those who want to bicker, giving people the information to go and do the debunking themselves and as such save myself time, and telling the positive story about China. Again, if you want to develop something larger, I will of course help with dissimination, but so far, I have to follow what works for me and was developed on a site that was not fully friendly to this pivot and did not really believe that it needs attention. Yikes, walking on egg shells. I hope I did not waste your time in relating this history. In my heart, I am with you but real hard experience let me know that one has to labor and toil in your own garden almost peer-to-peer. A large anti-propaganda and debunking campaign would have to be as large as the initial propaganda campaign to make even a dent. <redacted>
Trailer Park Boys I am the liquor ultimate edit
Highly Detailed Illustrations By Ilya Milstein
Ilya Milstein is a Milan-born, Melbourne-raised and New-York based illustrator that works in a pretty traditional way.
«I’m drafting all my work with blue pencil, then hand-drawing them with black ink on paper before coloring them in computer», he says.
More: Ilya Milstein, Instagram h/t: fubiz
Veruca Salt – Volcano Girls
The Melancholy of Dreams: Illustrations by Felicia Chiao
Felicia Chiao is an artist from California who sketches the life of a certain bald man. The little man is melancholic but sweet, and his existence is dull and sad, but his sadness is light and even cozy. Chiao’s illustrations suggest that she depicts the typical everyday life of each of us – drawn out like an old man’s daydreams.
Be Cool (10/11) Movie CLIP – That’s Not Gangsta (2005) HD
Opinion: ‘Most U.S. banks are technically near insolvency, and hundreds are already fully insolvent,’ Roubini says
In January 2022, when yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.503% were still roughly 1% and those on German Bunds were -0.5%, I warned that inflation would be bad for both stocks and bonds.
Higher inflation would lead to higher bond yields, which in turn would hurt stocks as the discount factor for dividends rose. But, at the same time, higher yields on “safe” bonds would imply a fall in their price, too, owing to the inverse relationship between yields and bond prices.
This basic principle — known as “duration risk” — seems to have been lost on many bankers, fixed-income investors, and bank regulators. As rising inflation in 2022 led to higher bond yields, 10-year Treasurys lost more value (-20%) than the S&P 500 SPX, +1.44% (-15%), and anyone with long-duration fixed-income assets denominated in U.S. dollars DX00, -0.13% or euros USDEUR, -0.27% was left holding the bag.
The consequences for these investors have been severe. By the end of 2022, U.S. banks’ unrealized losses on securities had reached $620 billion, about 28% of their total capital ($2.2 trillion).
Making matters worse, higher interest rates have reduced the market value of banks’ other assets as well. If you make a 10-year bank loan when long-term interest rates are 1%, and those rates then rise to 3.5%, the true value of that loan (what someone else in the market would pay you for it) will fall. Accounting for this implies that U.S. banks’ unrealized losses actually amount to $1.75 trillion, or 80% of their capital.
The “unrealized” nature of these losses is merely an artifact of the current regulatory regime, which allows banks to value securities and loans at their face value rather than at their true market value.
In fact, judging by the quality of their capital, most U.S. banks are technically near insolvency, and hundreds are already fully insolvent.
To be sure, rising inflation reduces the true value of banks’ liabilities (deposits) by increasing their “deposit franchise,” an asset that is not on their balance sheet. Since banks still pay near 0% on most of their deposits, even though overnight rates have risen to 4% or more, this asset’s value rises when interest rates are higher. Indeed, some estimates suggest that rising interest rates have increased U.S. banks’ total deposit-franchise value by about $1.75 trillion.
If depositors flee, the deposit franchise evaporates, and the unrealized losses on securities become realized. Bankruptcy then becomes unavoidable.
But this asset exists only if deposits remain with banks as rates rise, and we now know from Silicon Valley Bank and the experience of other U.S. regional banks that such stickiness is far from assured. If depositors flee, the deposit franchise evaporates, and the unrealized losses on securities become realized as banks sell them to meet withdrawal demands. Bankruptcy then becomes unavoidable.
Moreover, the “deposit-franchise” argument assumes that most depositors are dumb and will keep their money in accounts bearing near 0% interest when they could be earning 4% or more in totally safe money-market funds that invest in short-term Treasurys. But, again, we now know that depositors are not so complacent. The current, apparently persistent flight of uninsured — and even insured — deposits is probably being driven as much by depositors’ pursuit of higher returns as by their concerns about the safety of their deposits.
Investing Insights with Global Context
In short, after being a non-factor for the past 15 years — ever since policy and short-term interest rates fell to near-zero following the 2008 global financial crisis — the interest-rate sensitivity of deposits has returned to the fore. Banks assumed a highly foreseeable duration risk because they wanted to fatten their net-interest margins. They seized on the fact that while capital charges on government-bond and mortgage-backed securities were zero, the losses on such assets did not have to be marked to market. To add insult to injury, regulators did not even subject banks to stress tests to see how they would fare in a scenario of sharply rising interest rates.
The economy is falling into a ‘debt trap.’
Now this house of cards is collapsing. The credit crunch caused by today’s banking stress will create a harder landing for the U.S. economy, owing to the key role that regional banks play in financing small- and medium-size enterprises and households.
Central banks therefore face not just a dilemma but a trilemma. Owing to recent negative aggregate supply shocks — including the COVID pandemic and the war in Ukraine — achieving price stability through interest-rate hikes was bound to raise the risk of a hard landing (a recession and higher unemployment). But, as I have been arguing for over a year, this vexing tradeoff also features the additional risk of severe financial instability.
Borrowers are facing rising rates — and thus much higher capital costs — on new borrowing and on existing liabilities that have matured and need to be rolled over. But the increase in long-term rates is also leading to massive losses for creditors holding long-duration assets. As a result, the economy is falling into a “debt trap,” with high public deficits and debt causing “fiscal dominance” over monetary policy, and high private debts causing “financial dominance” over monetary and regulatory authorities.
As I have long warned, central banks confronting this trilemma will likely wimp out (by curtailing monetary-policy normalization) to avoid a self-reinforcing economic and financial meltdown, and the stage will be set for a de-anchoring of inflation expectations over time. Central banks must not delude themselves into thinking they can still achieve both price and financial stability through some kind of separation principle (raising rates to fight inflation while also using liquidity support to maintain financial stability). In a debt trap, higher policy rates will fuel systemic debt crises that liquidity support will be insufficient to resolve.
Central banks also must not assume that the coming credit crunch will kill inflation by reining in aggregate demand. After all, the negative aggregate supply shocks are persisting, and labor markets remain too tight. A severe recession is the only thing that can temper price and wage inflation, but it will make the debt crisis more severe, and that in turn will feed back into an even deeper economic downturn. Since liquidity support cannot prevent this systemic doom loop, everyone should be preparing for the coming stagflationary debt crisis.
Trailer Park Boys Space Weed
Report: Israel Passes U.S. Military Technology to China
"From personal knowledge, I know that the IDF has had a very long and deep relationship with the PLA, a lot of it being under the radar. They took off their uniform, put on a different hat, and visited each other (doing a lot of things behind closed doors) when it was not kosher to do so."
Secret U.S. missile and electro-optics technology was transferred to China recently by Israel, prompting anger from the U.S. and causing a senior Israeli defense official to resign.
The head of defense exports for the Israeli Defense Ministry resigned after a U.S. investigation concluded that technology, including a miniature refrigeration system manufactured by Ricor and used for missiles and in electro-optic equipment, was sent to China, according to the Israeli newspaper Maariv.
Another Israeli news site, Aretz Sheva, reports the U.S. is concerned the technology could ultimately find its way to Iran, which last year sought to buy military equipment from China for its nuclear program.
Ricor, on its company website, identifies a number of defense programs using its miniature cryo-coolers, including UAVs, airborne enhanced vision systems, missile warning systems, hand-held thermal imagers and thermal weapons sights.
The Maariv report identified the Israeli defense official as Meir Shalit, and said he apologized to U.S. officials on a recent visit.
Israel has a long record of getting U.S. military technology to China.
In the early 1990s then-CIA Director James Woolsey told a Senate Government Affairs Committee that Israel had been selling U.S. secrets to China for about a decade. More than 12 years ago the U.S. demanded Israel cancel a contract to supply China with Python III missiles, which included technology developed by the U.S. for its Sidewinder missiles, The Associated Press reported in 2002.
You Ain’t Woman Enough To Take My Man (2005) HD
Biden ADMITS: Using Indictment(s) Against Trump “To make sure he does not become President Again”
Sponge – Wax Ecstatic (To Sell Angelina)
Program shows CIA behind Wikipedia entries
The world according to the online encyclopedia Wikipedia is in a constant state of update, as tens of thousands of contributors work to ensure the site’s content is correct.
But now an innovation on the site has confirmed a long-held suspicion: that Wikipedia is a prime target for spin-doctoring.
A new identification program on the site reveals that some of the most prolific contributors to Wikipedia are the CIA, the British Labour Party and the Vatican – and they are not just updating their own entries.
The Wikiscanner site shows the CIA has edited entries on many issues relating to the United States Government, including presidential biographies and descriptions of military operations.
It has also edited topics as diverse as Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations and the singer Richard Marx.
Seamus Byrne is the editor of online technology site Gizmodo Australia.
“Wikipedia is basically an open encyclopedia online that basically anyone can edit, anyone can add entries to and anyone can change anything they read on there,” he said.
But he says while anyone can put up content, users do keep track of entries to ensure they’re accurate and balanced.
“It’s quite a large community of users that are really devoted to Wikipedia, and something they do spend a lot of time monitoring is when changes are made,” he said.
“I guess so far it hasn’t been a case of monitoring the source, but they do try to keep an eye on any bias that may appear within any articles.”
And the Wikiscanner has revealed some interesting sources of that bias. It rummages through entries and edits posted on Wikipedia to find where they originate.
And among the usual list of companies and celebrities spinning their online image are some unusual mentions, including the British Labour Party, the Church of Scientology and the CIA.
Mr Byrne says he is not surprised.
“You’ve always got the feeling that they’ve been doing it and it just confirms that idea because there’s a lot of both vanity editing but more serious editing that goes on,” he said.
Checking sources
Gerard Goggin is an expert on the use of the internet in politics at Sydney University, and he says the influence of organisations such as the CIA on Wikipedia is cause for alarm.
“This underscores that we need to be careful with all the sources we quote,” he said.
Despite the CIA’s input, Dr Goggin remains a fan of Wikipedia.
“What is really crucial here is that people are aware of how Wikipedia comes to be, how entries are created and what the limitations of it are,” he said.
“One of its advantages is that any change to the entries can be tracked and you can actually reference those. People need to be aware of that kind of thing because Wikipedia is not the be-all and end-all.”
Mr Byrne says proof that the CIA is editing on Wikipedia will fuel internet conspiracy theories.
He says Wikipedia is just one place where government agencies are watching people.
“Obviously there’s the quite large – and people in online circles certainly know about it – Echelon Project,” he said.
“It’s a series of surveillance systems around the world that actually monitor phone, data, all kinds of traffic that goes on, looking for keywords related to things like terrorism and all kinds of troublesome issues and they pull that out and try to sift through it to find any connections that could be made to point to a real problem.”
Indonesian Chicken Breasts
You can make this with whole chicken breasts or with boneless ones. The advantage of the boneless is that they are lower in fat and easy to slice and work well on a serving platter. The advantage of the whole ones is that they have more flavor.
Ingredients
- 1/2 cup fresh-squeezed orange juice
- 1/4 cup peanut butter
- 2 cloves garlic, minced
- 2 teaspoons best quality curry powder
- 1/4 cup shredded coconut
- 4 boneless, skinless chicken breast halves (about 1 pound)
- 1 medium red bell pepper, cut in half
Instructions
- Make a marinade from the first 5 ingredients. Pour it over the chicken and refrigerate for several hours, turning it occasionally to make sure every part of the chicken is coated.
- Heat the grill and remove the chicken from the marinade.
- Grill the chicken and the bell pepper for about 15 minutes, using the leftover marinade as you do so.
- To serve, cut chicken and the pepper diagonally into 1-inch slices.
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Indonesian Pork Skewers
Ingredients
- 1/4 cup vinegar
- 1/4 cup prepared mustard
- 1/4 cup light molasses
- 2 tablespoons ginger preserves or orange marmalade
- 1/4 teaspoon ground ginger
- 1 (1 1/2 pound) lean boneless pork, cut into 1-inch cubes
- 1/2 medium pineapple, halved lengthwise, cored and cut into 1/2-inch-thick slices
- 1 medium red sweet pepper, cut into strips
Instructions
- Combine the vinegar, mustard, molasses, ginger preserves and ginger in a small mixing bowl.
- Alternately thread the pork cubes, pineapple slices and pepper strips on 12 (6-inch) metal skewers, leaving about 1/4 inch between pieces.
- Brush with the molasses mixture.
- Grill the kabobs on the rack of an uncovered grill directly over medium-hot coals about 12 minutes or until no pink remains and juices run clear, turning and brushing with molasses mixture after 6 minutes.
- Heat the remaining molasses mixture and pass with the kabobs.
‘Medicine God’ in Central China found guilty, but faces no punishment for illegal trading of epilepsy medication
Quote of the day
China’s Proctor & Gamble Politics
Godfree Roberts
Chinese democracy resembles Procter & Gamble more than Pericles of Athens.
Hundreds of times every day an arm of government asks people their opinion, solicits solutions to their revealed problems and test-markets the most promising. VC Robin Daverman explains:
China is a giant trial portfolio with millions of trials everywhere: innovations in everything from healthcare to poverty reduction, education, energy, trade, and transportation are being trialed in different communities. Every one of China’s 662 cities is experimenting: Shanghai with free trade zones, Guizhou with poverty reduction, twenty-three cities with education reforms, Northeastern provinces with SOE reform, pilot schools, pilot cities, pilot hospitals, pilot markets, pilot everything. Mayors and governors, the Primary Investigators, share their ‘lab results’ at the Central Party School and publish them in State-owned media, their ‘scientific journals.’
Significant policies usually begin as ‘clinical trials’ in small towns, where they generate test data. If the stats look right, they’ll add test sites and do long-term follow ups. They test and tweak for 10-30 years, then ask the 3,000-member People’s Congress to review the data and authorize national trials in three provinces. If those trials are successful, the State Council (China’s Brains Trust) polishes the plan and returns it to Congress for a final vote. It’s very transparent, and if your data is better than mine, your bill gets passed, and mine doesn’t. Congressional votes are nearly unanimous because reams of data back the legislation.
This allows China to accomplish a great deal in a short time because your winning solution will be quickly propagated throughout the country. You’ll be a front-page hero, invited to high-level meetings in Beijing and promoted. As you can imagine, the competition to solve problems is intense.
Local governments have a great deal of freedom to try their own things as long as the local people support them. Various villages and small towns have tested everything from bare-knuckled liberalism to straight Communism.
Critics who label China’s Congress a ‘rubber stamp’ miss the point of that institution: to vote based on data, not rhetoric or promises. Congresspeople visit mature Trial Spots, survey local opinion, audit statistics, calculate budgetary impacts, and debate national scalability and political viability. Though few trials even reach the provincial level – where they can affect one-hundred million people – even failures contribute to the trove of data that shapes legislation.
Trial Spots, and the data they generate, are one of China’s most remarkable political strengths. They allow legislation to be rolled out confidently and rapidly and, largely thanks to them, most Chinese say the country is run for their benefit rather than for particular groups. Harvard’s Tony Saich, who conducts his own surveys says, “Ninety percent of people are happy with their government–and getting steadily more optimistic”.
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