I might have related this story in some of my many writings, but this is the story of a boyhood friend. His name was Jeff, and he was one year older than myself.
He lived one block up the hill from my house, and we played a lot. He had a horse, a canoe, and a cool attic bedroom with all of his brother’s airplane models still hanging from the ceiling. He loved Mad magazine, and science fiction. In fact, I bought my entire Doc Savage collection from him for the princely sum of ten dollars.
He was a little odd, not bad, just odd. His parents had divorced, and he lived with his mother. And she was nice but odd. On one occasion she wanted to hide me in their house for a week to get the entire town all worked up. I said no. After all, all that I could think of was the hurt and terror my parents would feel if I did that.
Anyways, he lived in a house with a two car garage.
One day, I went to visit him, and sitting in that garage was a massive pile of dirt. You see, he was trying to become a earth-worm king. He had this idea that he could raise earthworms right there and sell them to the local fishing bait shop.
Good idea, but he over-estimated the value of his product.
Anyways, for a whole month he would water that pile of dirt, and farm out earth-worms. Big news for a fifth grader.
Then one day it was all gone.
He sold one coffee can full of worms for a $1. And yeah, things were cheaper back then, but even he realized that that was a far cry from becoming a millionaire.
So he moved on to other things of boyhood interest. Which included model rockets (Estes) and crossbows.
Ah. Boyhood.
Eventually he moved away when I turned 16 years old. And during the furniture auction for his house, I met my first girlfriend; a Ms Georgia Beck. A fine thin, willowy lass all of 15 years old.
And that is another story for another time.
Today…
How much alcohol did Winston Churchill consume? Was he a big drinker?
We can get a peek into how much Churchill drank since the White House butler, Alonzo Fields, wrote about Churchill’s drink requests in his memoir. Not long after Churchill arrived at the White House in December of 1941, he pulled Mr. Fields aside and said the following:
“Listen, Alonzo, when I leave here we want to depart as friends, right? I’ll have no whistling in the hallways in the mornings. Now, I must have a tumbler of sherry in my room before breakfast, a couple of glasses of scotch and soda before lunch and French champagne, and 90-year-old brandy before I go to sleep at night.” This was not inclusive of everything Churchill drank during the day, however, it was just a starting point.
Essentially, Churchill drank for a good part of his waking hours every single day. His drinking sessions were known to last until 2 a.m. or 3 a.m. every night, wherein he kept President Roosevelt up to talk shop. This exasperated the First Lady, who was at least a little pleased to see him go at the end of his three week trip to Washington.
Churchill maintained his heavy drinking and smoking lifestyle all while leading his nation through a war and as a renown public speaker and author. He still managed to live to age 90. Good genetics.
Reaction to @hoe_math . Is Promiscuity that bad? Women should stop aiming above their level.
A breeding visa? in Japan?
This is the tragic story of Seath Jackson, who was born in Belleview, Florida.
In 2011, at the age of 15, Jackson briefly dated Amber Wright. However, their relationship ended in March of that year after Jackson learned that Amber had cheated on him with an 18-year-old named Michael Bargo.
Bargo despised Jackson so much that he even believed Jackson had abused Amber, and he began to devise a plan to punish him. Bargo collaborated with four others to carry out the plan. Amber lured Jackson to a mobile home under the pretense of wanting to “work things out,” but when Jackson arrived, he was ambushed by the group.
![main qimg 15b44d8bde8fb38c34014abea9bbd584 main qimg 15b44d8bde8fb38c34014abea9bbd584](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/main-qimg-15b44d8bde8fb38c34014abea9bbd584.jpeg)
Image: Seath Jackson(top right), the attackers, and evidence recovered in the investigation.
The attackers bludgḛoned him on the head with a piece of wood, causing him to stumble outside, where Bargo shot him several times. They then wrapped his body in a sleeping bag and threw it into a burning pit fire. The group’s heinous crime was exposed when one of the perpetrators confessed.
Bargo was sentenced to dḛậth, while the others received life in prison for their roles in the m̃urdḛr of Seath Jackson. Michael Bargo is the youngest person on Florida’s dḛậth row.
Footnotes:
Can you destroy your entire life with one wrong decision?
Effortlessly.
Guy I went to school with turned down the advances of a young lady at a party because she was underage and he wasn’t in to that. This wasn’t a huge age gap (four years) but she was fifteen and that’s illegal.
She went to the police and said he raped her (at a later date).
Police did their usual stirling job and nabbed him without even asking for an alibi.
His name was leaked to the press. (Norfolk police in the 90’s were really bad).
He was cleared in court because his alibi was that he had been going through army selection that weekend and had a whole training base of folk who could prove he was a hundred miles away from where she claimed things happened.
Didn’t matter. Papers named him and whipped the locals in to a frenzy. His car was set on fire, house vandalised, fired from his job, army rejected him (he passed selection but the army was trying to clean up their image at the time so …).
End of the day he did a bunk in the middle of the night. Went to eastern Europe and got a series of shitty jobs. I got one email from him back around 2000 just to let me know he was alive and I’ve never heard from him since. So, there you go, one young man’s whole life pissed away because he wouldn’t cop off with a girl at a party.
Why I Left the USA (Again)
Did you ever accidentally overhear a conversation about you on a conference call?
Not a conversation that I overheard, but a technical conversation I had for work that was overheard by other people.
I was a civil engineer working as the project manager for the replacement of a very, very weird bridge. First let me tell you about this bridge – it carried a small, local road over the main Amtrak line. It was an historic truss structure dating back to just after the civil war (back when the rail-line belonged to Pennsylvania railroad), and, weirdest of all, there was a driveway to a car dealership *on the actual bridge*. And all of this was located in the heart of the Main Line where property values were super-high, and it was crowded among some very luxe businesses.
Redesigning this bridge was a complete nightmare.
First off, I could not meet a single design standard. Not roadway width (too narrow), grade (too steep), clearance, nothing. There were just too many constraints. So I call my Federal counterpart (because this bridge has federal funding) and try to explain all of the problems.
Only our line was crossed with a pair of women who were having their own conversation.
That’s fine, we can hear them, but their volume is low, and we know that they can hear us, but we aren’t discussing anything secret – so we each ignore the other conversation, for the most part.
I explain the problem to my counterpart and ask if he can grant me a design exception for the design speed. If I can design the bridge for 15 miles per hour I can meet the design criteria. No, that is too big an ask. I continue to explain the problem with all the constraints. Then my counterpart asks me how much it would cost to design the bridge to meet all the standards. (Quick aside here, cost is NOT supposed to be a factor in choices like this, unless it is extremely excessive *AND* there are other safety factors involved. But extreme costs can be considered as a mitigating factor.)
So I tell him that the the extra construction cost won’t be that much, maybe a hundred thousand dollars on a million dollar project. But the two properties on either side of the bridge at one end are owned by a Lexus dealership and a Mercedes dealership who do not want to give up a square inch of land and are going to make the state pay through the nose. The other side of the bridge has an historic church on one side and a medical office building on the other – not quite as expensive but still hard to obtain the land. So the cost of the real estate would probably be about a million dollars in that area. On top of that, there are utilities everywhere – water, electric, phone, gas, cable, fiber optic lines – so there goes another three-quarters to a million dollars moving all of them. Then, because the bridge is very close to a heavily trafficked commuter route, and improving the grade on the bridge would mean repaving that road, too, the cost of traffic management would easily run another four to five hundred thousand dollars.
And the women overhearing our conversation exclaim, “Oh my God! That’s two and a half million dollars!” Then, realizing that they were overheard, they say their goodbyes and quickly hang up.
My counterpart says he has to see this bridge before making a decision, so we set up a meeting on the site for about a week later. And just as I am about to leave for that meeting, I get a panicked phone call from my counterpart saying that he is at the bridge and he is too nervous to even drive across it. He moves the meeting to my office, arrives thirty minutes later and signs off on all of the design exceptions.
It still took another three years to completely the design – mainly because the Lexus dealership didn’t want to lose their driveway, or sell the tiny amount of land that was required, but it did get built, safely and for a lot less than two and a half million dollars.
Southwestern Beef and Chili Pizza
![southwest beef and chile pizza vertical southwest beef and chile pizza vertical](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/southwest-beef-and-chile-pizza-vertical.jpg)
Yield: 4 servings
Ingredients
- 1 pound ground beef
- 1/4 teaspoon salt
- 1 (12 inch) thick prebaked Italian bread shell
- 1 1/4 cups mild thick and chunky salsa
- 1 1/2 cups Mexican cheese blend or Monterey Jack cheese, shredded
- 1 (4 ounce) can diced green chiles, drained well
- 2 medium plum tomatoes, seeded and coarsely chopped
- 1/3 cup thin red onion slivers
- 2 tablespoons fresh cilantro, chopped
Instructions
- Heat oven to 450 degrees F.
- In large skillet, brown ground beef over medium heat 8 to 10 minutes or until no longer pink, breaking up into 3/4 inch crumbles.
- Pour off drippings.
- Season with salt.
- Place bread shell on ungreased baking sheet.
- Spread salsa over shell. Sprinkle with half of cheese.
- Top with beef chiles, tomatoes, red onion and remaining cheese.
- Bake for 11 to 13 minutes or until cheese is melted.
- Sprinkle with cilantro; cut into 8 wedges.
Have you ever met a celebrity and found they were much kinder or ruder than you expected?
In the late 1980s I worked as a chauffeur for Beverly Hills Limousine (At that time a small family run business) and I had occasion to drive many of the “Hollywood elite”. As I have recounted in another post here, the absolute nicest celeb I drove would be actor Kirk Douglas. Intelligent, thoughtful, funny but not to be trifled with. I thoroughly enjoyed having him in my car.
The absolute worst celeb (though certainly not the absolute worst client) was actress Susan Clark. Married to football star turned actor Alex Karras (“Mongo” in “Blazing Saddles”) she had a reputation as a lady with class and upbringing. The car I drove her in was a Lincoln Continental 4-door hardtop with NO window “screen” between driver and passenger. I drove her to a photo shoot from the Hollywood hills to Glendale, approx. a half hour drive. All was “normal” for a while until I heard a loud belch behind me. Hey, everyone burps, only it is standard to apologize for such an indiscretion. She was silent. Shortly after that I saw her produce a toothpick to give her teeth the “once over”. Afterwards she unwrapped a stick of chewing gum and put it to work, presumably to freshen her breath. Moments later there was a loud fart… I cracked some windows to insure there was no “poison gas”…
Fortunately, we arrived at the photo studio shortly thereafter and I dropped her off. I pulled the car over in a nearby filling station to dispose of the gum wrapper and toothpick. They were not visible. I found her gum stuffed into the rear passenger ash tray (Yes, cars all had ash trays then) but the wrapper and toothpick were not visible. Running my hand between the seat and the backrest, I found them both there stuffed in between the upholstery.
Not my worst day driving a limousine but NOT my definition of a classy lady.
Why you SHOULDN’T get US Citizenship even if you have a chance?
Why Americans think Chinese are most brainwashed but World see Americans the most brainwashed and they believe theories like flat earth?
The Americans are the most brainwashed people in the world and the evidence is out there in the open for everyone to see.
A country who spent north of $7 trillion on the stupid wars in Iraq and Afghanistan while allowing itself to decay in almost every aspect of its essential services and amenities, has to be a country drowned so deeply in corruption.
And today the American people are still electing their favourite politicians from the the equally corrupt bi-parties instead of sending them to the gallows is truly mind numbing.
Shorpy
![SHORPY 01434u.preview SHORPY 01434u.preview](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/SHORPY_01434u.preview.jpg)
![SHORPY 8d20965u.preview SHORPY 8d20965u.preview](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/SHORPY_8d20965u.preview.jpg)
![SHORPY 4a07220a.preview SHORPY 4a07220a.preview](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/SHORPY_4a07220a.preview.jpg)
![SueDean68.preview SueDean68.preview](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/SueDean68.preview.jpg)
![SHORPY 4a21396a.preview SHORPY 4a21396a.preview](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/SHORPY_4a21396a.preview.jpg)
![SHORPY 18936u.preview SHORPY 18936u.preview](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/SHORPY_18936u.preview.jpg)
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![SHORPY 31828u.preview SHORPY 31828u.preview](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/SHORPY_31828u.preview.jpg)
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![SHORPY 4a13536a.preview SHORPY 4a13536a.preview](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/SHORPY_4a13536a.preview.jpg)
Col. Richard Black: NATO Is Preparing For a Nuclear Strike on Russia, And Russia Knows It
NATO & the US are making a decision to up the ante—we will escalate. We will take more and more perilous actions and take this thing right up to the edge of WW3.
The Schiller Institute is trying to mobilize public opinion to bring a greater air of caution. By preempting the most aggressive and most reckless people we have managed to ward off some of the worst excesses during this war.
If we can continue doing it successfully then perhaps peace will come and we can reconsider our foreign policy and some of the very grave mistakes that we’ve made recently.
The Western corporate elite have made up their mind. They are determined for WWIII. If they can’t have total world domination they will stomp on the blocks and nuke the Whole thing.
What’s the most expensive thing you’ve found/lost/broken?
My wife & I had just boarded a cruise ship and were settling into our state room. The prior occupant had left some valuables in the safe, closed but unlocked: her wallet (with ID) with some cash in it, and then various envelopes with $20s, $100s, etc written on the front, stuffed with that kind of bill. Of course, we had to count the money. It was over $3k.
The ID was for an elderly lady, and we found a paper with a phone number on it for a relative (same last name).
Some people may think it was silly of us, but we tried calling the number to return the wallet & cash. No one answered—we left a message but never heard back. So instead we took the cash & wallet to the customer service desk and turned it over to them. The lady at the desk was pretty surprised I think. We had to stand there while she counted it out in front of us twice.
We’ll never know whether the old lady got her wallet & cash back.
EDIT: Some are asking why housekeeping didn’t find it. The safe was physically shut most of the way and the contents were not visible. I assume housekeeping doesn’t usually pull open the safe door to see if the safe is empty. We didn’t find the stuff until we went to put our valuables in the safe.
Crossing the Airfield – The Pacific
Has a cop ever said something to you which was completely unexpected?
I bought a Mazda RX3 in early 1972 with the new rotary engine. I was living in Los Angeles when I learned my mother had pancreatic cancer and would not likely survive very long. I jumped in my car and drove as fast as I could to her home in Phoenix to spend a little time with her before she passed.
There were no other cars on Interstate 10 so I decided to see just how fast that little engine could go. I had just pegged the needle (140) and was still gaining speed when I heard the “whoop” of the siren. I looked in my rear view mirror and could see the California Highway Patrol car trying to catch up with me. I pulled over (safely), rolled down my window, grabbed my documents, and waited for him.
The officer quickly parked, exited his vehicle, and ran toward me shouting “Get out of the car!” I thought perhaps my car was on fire so I leaped out and practically ran into him yelling “What’s happening?” He stopped, grabbed me by the shoulders and stared and me with a very surprised look on his face. I repeated, “What’s happening?”
Then he started laughing. “You’re just a kid! And a girl!” I was still confused, but told him I knew I was driving fast, that I was in a hurry to spend time with my mother who was in her last days, and that the truth was that I was also really curious about what that rotary engine could do and thought the road was empty.
He took a few breaths and told me my speed was extremely dangerous and even a slight bump or pothole in the road could have caused me to crash. He was sorry about my mother. He was also sorry that had to write me up since he had already called in a “reckless driver”, but he would write the ticket for the maximum that would allow me to continue on my journey (and not be arrested on the spot).
Then he said, “Before you go, can I take a peek at that rotary engine?” I nodded and popped the hood. We had a nice chat. I drove safely away to see my mom for the last time.
The Loudest Silence
Submitted into Contest #250 in response to: Write a story about a child overhearing something they don’t understand.… view prompt
Catherine Gunn
I crawl away from the door, heading across the freezing tiles to where Oscar is sleeping in a pile of blankets.
“Oscar.” I whisper, afraid to startle him. He continues sleeping, unmoved. Annoyed, I begin to shake him. I just can’t sleep until I talk to somebody about this! “Oscar, wake up!” I cry out, as loud as I can without drawing the attention of the monsters. He jerks up, squinting at me through the darkness.
“What time is it?” He mumbles, rubbing his eyes. I guess he’s still groggy because we haven’t had access to clocks since the day we came here.
“It’s still night. But I need to tell you something important, so I need you to be awake with me!” I explain, frantically.
“I don’t care how much your stomach hurts…”he begins, his eyes closing.
“It’s not that! It’s about the others.” He opens his eyes again, interested.
“What about the others? Did one of them come back?”
“No. I don’t think so. But I was leaning against the door and I heard the monsters talk about them! Or at least it sounded like it was about them and us. They were talking about how they did something to them and how they were sick and how the monsters won’t get rid of us cause we’re different genders or something!” I say hurriedly. I gasp for breath, glad to have told someone. He frowns.
“They were sick for a long time.” He mutters, staring at the floor.
Yes, all of them had dark circles around their eyes from lack of sleep because coughing kept them up all night. They were also unusually skinny despite all the food we were fed. But I guess I didn’t think of it that much until now. All they ever really were was friends.
In my old home, my mother had a small, sparse garden. One day I watched as she threw away a wilted flower. Even though it was wilted I remember asking why she threw it away. She told me that the flower had gotten sick and eventually died. Like flowers, humans can probably wilt too. So did that mean that because my friends were sick…
My stomach churns. I wish I had been born deaf so I couldn’t hear a single word anyone ever said. To be blissfully unaware of the fear and dangers of this world. But most importantly, so that I would never have heard the monsters through the door.
“They’re not coming back.” I state, something hot and wet running down my cheek. That should’ve been a question, but somehow it feels true. Oscar doesn’t say anything, his eyes glossy.
I cling to him, grabbing onto the silky fabric of his shirt. I don’t understand. I don’t understand why they were so sick or why they’re not coming back. The only thing I do understand is that right now in this room without the voices of my friends, this is the loudest silence I’ve ever heard.
We are Living in The Twilight Zone ….. Part 3
What was the most unexpected knock you got on your door?
I was alone, my husband was away on a training course. I had been sick for days to the point I no longer knew what day it was or what time it was, I had fallen asleep on the couch with all the lights on. I had taken some medication for my cold. There was frantic knocking at my door I didn’t realize it but it was 4 AM. I opened the door and standing there shivering in the -15C temperature, was a teenage boy with no shoes on. There was at least 2 ft on snow on the ground. I
His head was bleeding. He started pleading all in one long breathe, “Please, please let me in, some guys are trying to kill me, they hit me in the head with a bat and I don’t even know them, your house was the only house that had lights on, PLEASE! I was a little dazed by it all and the medication, I just said, “Come on in”. Later my Mom and husband gave me such a hard time about opening the door in the middle on the night. I kept telling them I didn’t know it was the middle of the night. Besides the kid needed help and I had a son just a bit older than him. I would hope someone would do the same for him.
The boy had been at a house party where some people were kicked out for being too rowdy. Those people came back with more people with baseball bats. They hit anyone who was there. The kid didn’t know them or them him. He said he left via a balcony window and jumped down into the snow with no shoes. He ran down the alley, saw my lights on and came to my door. We called the police who came and took the young man away. I never heard anymore about it. My family said I should never do that again, But I have!
BEST 21 Minutes of Men Going Their Own Way – Special Video
Why does the U.S. have so many military bases outside of the United States?
The US military does not maintain 900 bases abroad.
Full stop.
Just because Ron Paul said it doesn’t mean it’s true (or, with all due respect to Politifact, even “mostly” true).
The Department of Defense most recently reported having 4,855 active sites as of 2015. Of those, 587 are overseas.
Not 900. 587.
And more to the point, the vast majority of those 587 sites aren’t “bases,” but small installations – which the Department of Defense defines as being worth less than $100 million (and, hint: a proper military base costs way more than $100 million). They include things like 144 square feet of leased space somewhere in Newfoundland, Canada, and a medical research center in Lima, Peru.
The majority of these sites, while counted separately, are actually satellite components of a central base or base complex. The complex for Wiesbaden, Germany, for example, headquarters for United States Army Europe, gets 25 separate listings. Every minor camp and installation in South Korea gets a mention.
Seriously, things like golf courses (which they’re slowly divesting) and family housing units get counted towards the overseas “site” total. A lot of them are just parcels of leased land that the government has to account for (like a random acre of land in Costa Rica, versus the regularly debunked “army base”).
The fact of the matter is that America’s overseas military presence is largely, usually overhyped. Yes, it has very large military commitments in places like Japan, South Korea, and Germany, but it isn’t an imperial force with its boots on the necks of every country everywhere. 90 percent of the US’ forces are based inside the United States, and the vast majority of other nations that house US military personnel only have a handful.
Here’s a map of the number of nations with at least one US military servicemember assigned, according to the Defense Manpower Data Center:
![main qimg 07556931677daf63cbdfa8a2f639304f pjlq main qimg 07556931677daf63cbdfa8a2f639304f pjlq](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/main-qimg-07556931677daf63cbdfa8a2f639304f-pjlq.jpeg)
Now here’s a map with those assignments weighted by the size of deployment.
![main qimg 07a2fa411bd7e13e69f1f943ddbc36ce pjlq main qimg 07a2fa411bd7e13e69f1f943ddbc36ce pjlq](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/main-qimg-07a2fa411bd7e13e69f1f943ddbc36ce-pjlq.jpeg)
A lot less shocking. The US’ main overseas commitments are to Europe, South Korea, and Japan to honor mutual defense pacts. Everywhere else has just a handful of service personnel whose roles are probably advisory in nature, if not entirely contained within the US embassies in those nations.
I know all the popular answers to this question come up with fancy reasons related to the US’ need to project its power or some such, and people have reflexively upvoted those answers because they sound smart, but they’re built on the incorrect premise.
The fact of the matter is that the US has neither the interest nor the resources to sustain such a massive, overseas military presence that 900 bases would require. That it has large deployments in selected countries represents its commitment to existing alliances and ongoing conflicts. But putting a bunch of hardware around the world and the garrisons necessary to zealously defend them isn’t on the table.
Seriously, before you ask (or answer) “Why?” ask “If.”
Essential resource: US Department of Defense Base Structure Report (FY 2015 Baseline)
Related reading: Carter Moore’s answer to How many countries does the US have its military stationed in?
Smoked Turkey and Cranberry
Gourmet Pizza
![cranberry barbecue turkey pizza3 cranberry barbecue turkey pizza3](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/cranberry-barbecue-turkey-pizza3.jpg)
Yield: 1 large pizza
Ingredients
- 1 (16 ounce) pre-cooked Italian bread shell
- 1 (14 ounce) can Ocean Spray® Whole Berry Sauce
- 3/4 cup sliced green onion, white and green parts
- 1 (8 ounce) package shredded Monterey Jack cheese
- 1/4 pound smoked deli-turkey, cut into thin strips
![cranberry barbecue turkey pizza2 cranberry barbecue turkey pizza2](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/cranberry-barbecue-turkey-pizza2.jpg)
Instructions
- Heat oven to 375 degrees F.
- Place bread shell on an ungreased baking pan.
- Spread cranberry sauce evenly over bread shell. Sprinkle with green onion and cheese. Top with turkey.
- Bake for 10 minutes or until heated through and cheese has melted.
![cranberry barbecue turkey pizza cranberry barbecue turkey pizza](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/cranberry-barbecue-turkey-pizza.jpg)
“Don’t Breathe” The Plan Goes Wrong | Land of Bad (2023) | Movie Clip 4K
By Yves Smith
Ukraine putting out its begging bowl at the Berlin “Restoration and Infrastructure Conference” this week has led to a smidge more press attention to the impact of Russia’s campaign against Ukraine’s electrical system. Similar to coverage of the war as a whole, bad information is being dribbled out, accompanied by doses of hopium as to how conditions could be made markedly better if the West only provided more weapons, money, and other salves.
Another telling aspect is that the articles are only willing to project out to Ukraine having the high odds of a cold and dark winter, and the impact of that on households. It’s as if we were given old fashioned naval maps, with their warnings at the periphery, “Beyond here lie dragons.” They avert their eyes from the fact that highly constrained power translates into massive constraints on and likely cascading problems with commerce.
Even if you consider only the difficulties for residents, it is not just that they will be in freezing, blackout conditions come winter. What about food? What about getting gas, since many stations rely on electricity to run their pumps?
And when we get to commerce, just start with processing transactions. What happens when Internet access is limited, and retailers and suppliers can’t take card or electronic payments on their merchant systems? Or for that matter, banks if theres is only power for a few hours a day?
And most of all, what about sewage, which John Helmer identified as the big chokepoint in terms of municipalities having a hope of remaining habitable? From his post earlier this week:
Independently of one another, Russian and Ukrainian reporters are confirming the impact of the power losses on the operation of water and sewerage systems in the majority of Ukrainian cities. According to Oleg Popenko, a Ukrainian expert on energy for communal services, “Armageddon has already arrived. We just don’t feel it yet. But the residents of Poltava, for example, feel it, because since May 5 of this year, 120,000 residents of the city receive water by the hour and use sewerage by the hour. You can imagine what happened in Zhitomir when the central sewerage collector didn’t work there for a week, but now in Poltava [it’s been] a month. And this is the problem with water utilities in 70% of Ukrainian cities. Water utilities are probably more important than rest of the infrastructure in the city. Heat and electricity can be replaced somehow, and you can go somewhere. But if the sewer system breaks down in a city, the city is no longer viable in principle.”
Also note that there is some artful positioning on the extent of the devastation. Ukraine’s biggest energy company DTEK confirmed Washington Post reporting. From DTEK on June 7:
In a recent Washington Post article, DTEK CEO Maxim Timchenko revealed that russia’s missile attacks have devastated Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, with the country’s largest private power producer losing 86 percent of its generating capacity.
“What makes the situation worse is that many of the electrical facilities have been targeted repeatedly — a cycle of destruction, recovery, destruction,” Timchenko told the Washington Post. He pointed to one DTEK power unit that was repaired just weeks ago only to be struck again over the weekend, saying “Now it’s just gone.”
Yet various new reports state that Ukraine has lost only 50% of its generation. This is plausible given that DTEK in 2019 and 2020 supplied only 18% to 19% of Ukraine’s electricity, per Fitch. So the math could work. But 86% for DTEK versus 50% overall would mean DTEK has been singularly unlucky. So it’s not unreasonable to think that 50% is an understatement.
BBC provided one Ukraine electricity update this week. The Twitterverse amplified this section:
If Russia continues to attack power plants, the worst-case scenario is that come winter Ukrainians could be spending up to 20 hours a day without power and heating, according to Ukraine’s largest private energy company DTEK. Part of the issue is that Ukraine’s thermal and hydroelectric power stations are difficult and expensive to fix.
They skipped over the significance of this part:
Ukraine is buying energy from the European Union to try to cover its shortfall. Its energy ministry said it was planning on Wednesday to import its largest amount of power to date. However, this is not enough to make up its deficit, meaning nationwide power cuts have been planned during an eight-hour window, from 3pm to 11pm, in order to protect critical infrastructure such a hospitals and military facilities.
The BBC piece made it sound as if 3 PM to 11 PM power outages are the new normal (although in fairness “power cuts” could mean rolling blackouts in this window). Anyone who has read about load balancing in connection with solar power knows that residential usage peaks when people come home from work. They cook dinner (and open their fridges, also increasing power demand), turn on lights, turn on air conditioning or turn up heat, depending on the time of year, and in normal circumstances, many turn on entertainment devices.
So this window is part of the business day and the most active time for households. In the US, the consumer sector is the largest user of electricity, but represents less than half the total (commercial and industrial are classified separately). Ukraine is probably not wildly different (it probably has a larger industrial sector, but that was concentrated in the Donbass, which Russia now deems to be part of Russia). So even though the outage time is only 8 hours a day, on a guesstimated basis, it seems consistent with a 50% reduction. But when you consider the profile, it already represents a lot of pain for individuals.
A new story in the Wall Street Journal applies as much porcine maquillage as possible to this dire and worsening situation. Key extracts:
Ukraine is imposing blackouts, launching hasty repairs and hunting for spare parts after a Russian bombing campaign targeting power infrastructure in recent months slashed the country’s electricity production by half.
The Russian attacks, using waves of missiles and explosive drones, have sparked fears of a painful winter should the power outages severely hamper the economy and lead to an exodus from cities. Ukraine has long pleaded with the West for more air-defense systems, and Ukrainian officials say deliveries have been insufficient to protect both cities and the front lines.
In reviving and expanding a tactic used earlier in the war, Ukrainian officials say Russia is seeking to spark a humanitarian crisis as part of an effort to break Ukrainians’ will to fight and force a capitulation.
The streets of Kyiv are already filled with the sound and fumes of generators, as power companies impose hourslong blackouts to manage consumption and carry out repairs. Ukraine has increased electricity imports from European Union neighbors it was exporting power to as recently as March. And repair crews are working across its energy grid to restore capacity, sometimes only to see the same facilities struck again.
This section implies, and more Ukraine complaints in the article later explicitly claim, that this campaign could be neutralized if the West provided more air defenses. While technically accurate, it breezes past the fact that that’s na ga happen. Ukraine’s former Soviet weaponry generally outperformed Western replacements. As anyone who has been even dimly following this story knows, the US and NATO have been scrounging to find more Patriot missiles, even as Russia has been successfully hunting and destroying the platforms. Ukraine has also been pinning far too much hope on the eventual delivery of F-16 fighter jets, which the Anglosphere media has dutifully also overhyped. And we see no mention of ever-more effective Russian signal jamming.
It’s not surprising to see frustration and upset on Twitter:
The Journal piece turns to the notion that Ukraine can restore service as the war is on, which is akin to bailing water out of a badly leaking boat:
DTEK estimates the price of restoring the energy system at $50 billion…Focused on maintenance, they are looking for spare parts, equipment and investment to keep Ukraine’s grid working. To address the need for parts, [Maxim] Timchenko [CEO of DTEK] said DTEK has been working with countries across Europe to visit decommissioned power plants to scour for usable parts. At least 10 countries have opened their doors.
During the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin, Ukraine’s Energy Ministry said it helped coordinate a dozen new cooperation agreements for rebuilding and maintaining the country’s power grid. State power company Ukrenergo said it has received 30.4 million euros, equivalent to around $33 million, from Germany to support energy infrastructure. The EU said 1.4 billion euros in grants will be available to businesses working in the sector. DTEK announced partnerships with U.S. energy companies Honeywell International and GE Vernova as well as French energy company Schneider Electric, which has donated 43,000 pieces of emergency equipment worth 4 million euros since February 2022.
In fairness, the article does acknowledge, as minimally as possible, that energy facilities are “sometimes” destroyed again after repairs.
The Journal describes Ukraine plans to rely more on solar and other distributed generation, with DTEK having launched a new wind farm even while the war was on. But the article also describes the use of generators as a stopgap, without acknowledging that they are not a viable ongoing solution. Again hoisting from Helmer:
On June 7, a video recorded stroll down one of Odessa’s shopping streets revealed an emergency generating set providing electricity for almost all of the commercial establishments.
“This is in no way sustainable,” comments a NATO military engineer. “Note how each shop has its own genset. The generators in the video are not designed for the duty cycle they’re being run at. They’ll wear out soon enough. The military, including deployed NATO personnel, use the shops and the gensets, too. The idea of pooling their resources, sharing load among gensets, thus reducing wear and tear on the whole network, while collectivizing fuel and maintenance costs, doesn’t seem to have occurred to them. To be sure, what follows will be no lack of electrocutions, carbon monoxide poisonings, and fires. We can bet the manifestations of the social pathology we’re seeing here have been factored in by the General Staff. Their attack point will now be to stop fuel, engine oil, spares, and replacements from getting through.”
Russia is working on two overlapping tracks, that of degrading Ukraine’s power system so severely as to cripple its military’s ability to supply itself and communicate, with the ancillary effect of getting civilians to leave cities, which would give Russia more degrees of freedom in taking them, if it has to resort to offensive operations. At the same time, it is relentlessly attriting Ukraine’s men and weapons in the east. Russia can decide how to manage the tempo of each campaign. It will be interesting to see which vector Russia prefers over time, since this may also give early signals as to how Russia is thinking about the end game. For instance, more emphasis on the electrical campaign could presage Russia eventually asserting control over western Ukraine, which they would regard as an unwelcome necessity. Consistent with that notion, John Mearshimer on Judge Napolitano pointed out yesterday (starting at 8:58):
Ukrainians needs more manpower on the battlefield, they need more weaponry, and we don’t have weaponry to give them in meaningful numbers, and we certainly don’t have any manpower to give them. So there is not much we can do at this point in time. And I would argue, by the way, that by doubling down the way we are doubling down, especially by giving Ukraine a 10 year military commitment, we’re just guaranteeing that Russians have a powerful incentive to really wreck Ukraine.
Mearshimer did at least disagree with Gilbert Doctorow and said he thought Russia would not flatten Kiev. But that view does not make the overall trajectory that much better.
What was the most disappointing birthday present you ever saw someone get?
A car. My oldest daughter was very mature and responsible and for a few reasons I decided to give her a (used) car for her 16th birthday. My girls went to school in a different town that started at 7:20 a.m. The bus came at 6:10. An extra half hour was big. At least three nights a week she went back to school for music rehearsals. My youngest was ill and I was back and forth to the hospital so it wasn’t a wild whim to give her a car; it was a bit of a necessity. But it was a big gift. I had a party for her and a friend put a bow on it and delivered it during the party. NO REACTION. She looked pained and everyone else was a bit taken back by her lack of enthusiasm.
That evening she apologized. She wasn’t extremely outgoing and being the center of attention, knowing people were expecting a big reaction, and not being mature enough to fake one, she basically froze. She wasn’t unappreciative – more a deer in the headlights. You couldn’t have asked for a better child – it was easy to understand and let it go, but now we joke when it’s a little box at Christmas ”sure hope its not a car!”
What did you do when you were suddenly fired from a job?
I was terminated from my job as a nurse after 14 years with the same hospital. I felt defeated, unworthy and depressed. I was not sure i wanted to be a nurse anymore.
I took a week off and decided to take a road trip to a place that once made me prouder and happier than I had ever been in my life. I drove down to Columbus, Georgia, the town just outside of Fort Benning where I had attended the U.S. Army Basic Parachutist course, a.k.a. “Jump School”, and had earned my wings. It was a pivotal moment in my life as Basic Training and my Combat Engineer school had not been the “band of brothers” experience that I had hoped for. Jump School was such an awesome experience that I was finally looking forward to what would become an eventful and mostly enjoyable 3 year tour of duty which would eventually lead me to become an Army Medic and then a Registered Nurse.
I spent the weekend visiting the Infantry Museum, which included watching a class of Infantrymen graduate, the Naval Museum of the Civil War, the Coca-Cola Space Center, ambling along the river walk, and exploring the old Civil War iron works that had been made into a conference center and events venue.
On the way to and from Columbus, I visited the Aquarium in Atlanta, the Army Airborne museum at Camp Taccoa, two other local museums and an old water-powered grist mill.
I returned home feeling refreshed and began a job search. It took me 15 months to find another full-time job as a nurse, but in the interim I did some volunteer driving for the local food bank, worked part-time in a nursing-adjacent job, and went on several job interviews, both nursing and non-nursing, just to see what was out there. I even got to visit a factory where the Army’s parachutes are made.
I was fortunate enough to have a paid-for house and car and a lot of savings, but I understand that there are many out there who are less fortunate than me.
I once read a cartoon in the which the narrator said that before a person can overcome tragedy, they must take some time to just stare at the rubble. That was certainly true for me, but I also recommend finding and going to a “happy place”, even if only for a brief time, just to remind ones self that there is still some happiness to be had in life, even as we suffer the darkest of times.
Philippine Marines Drew Firearms as China Seized Second Thomas Shoal Airdrop, Says Philippine Military Chief
JUNE 4, 2024 6:04 PM
Chinese and Philippine Armed Forces boats rigid hull inflatable boats clash near Second Thomas Shoal. AFP Image
The contingent of Philippine Marines onboard BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57) at Second Thomas Shoal reportedly drew their weapons as China Coast Guard boats moved in to take packages from a resupply airdrop.
Philippine military officials said this week that Chinese rigid hull inflatable boats intercepted an aerial resupply drop destined for Marines aboard BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal in an incident last month on May 19. This incident saw the vessels come as close as five meters to the grounded Second World War-era landing ship tank, which Manila grounded at the disputed shoal in 1999.
Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief of Staff Romeo Brawner said that the Marines deployed their weapons as a “precautionary measure” in self-defense.
“It’s part of the rules of engagement. That whenever you see imminent threats coming your way, you best be prepared,” said Brawner about the incident.
Chinese state media claimed that the Philippine Marines were pointing guns at China Coast Guard officers and released a video of the incident from the Chinese perspective that depicts two Philippine personnel onboard Sierra Madre wielding firearms. These claims were denied in a statement by the Armed Forces of the Philippines, citing the need for “heightened vigilance and alertness” because of the “CCG’s provocative presence near BRP Sierra Madre.”
According to the Philippine military, the China Coast Guard reportedly tore open the packages and threw their contents of foodstuffs into the water. Brawner said that may have been searching for construction materials, which Beijing has constantly cited as a reason for their interceptions of Philippine resupply missions to Sierra Madre. While most of the supplies sank, some were recovered by Philippine personnel. However, officials cited the overall resupply operation as a success as the majority of the other airdropped packages were recovered.
Two separate incidents also occurred last month around the disputed South China Sea feature. According to the Inquirer newspaper, the China Coast Guard obstructed a medical evacuation mission from Sierra Madre on May 19. The third incident occurred on May 24, which reportedly involved the use of water cannons by Chinese forces to force away a Philippine civilian fishing vessel from the proximity of the shoal.
This series of incidents are the first to be reported by Manila since March when Chinese water cannons injured Philippine personnel and damaged a vessel during a resupply mission to Sierra Madre.