A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. 

But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. 

The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.

The various RAND reports are for insiders to read. If you know what to look for, these documents will be able to tell more of the real story than any news of propaganda.

While even sensible reports funded by the Defense Department and the military industrial complex call for an end to the endless war in Ukraine, even many self-proclaimed socialists are advocating adding more fuel to this war machine.

This can only be understood in terms of class struggle: without war to divert people’s attention, it is not easy for them to tolerate their declining standard of living and the subjugation of the perpetrators that led to it.

The American ruling class knows full well that their wealth today is built on looting rather than building. The Indians, the blacks and the third world countries they plundered still remember this.

Imagining a fictional conflict between Russia and China is like opium to the brain dead. It’s a clutching effort to grab that last drink before the bar closes, or to play one last round at the roulette table.

The United States is over, and any sensible entity should be devoting all their efforts to prevent the “leadership” from slamming the “game board” and tossing everything up in the air.

Ukraine – RAND Study Sees Risks In Prolonged War

RAND Corp is a government and industry financed large research institute. Founded shortly after the end of the second world war it mostly works for the Pentagon by developing policies and strategies.

In April 2019 RAND published a report about Extending Russia (pdf).

biggerThe report summary explained its purpose:

As the 2018 National Defense Strategy recognized, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to define areas where the United States can compete to its own advantage. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data from Western and Russian sources, this report examines Russia’s economic, political, and military vulnerabilities and anxieties. It then analyzes potential policy options to exploit them — ideologically, economically, geopolitically, and militarily (including air and space, maritime, land, and multidomain options).

RAND developed policy options in those four fields. It then evaluated their benefit, cost and risks as well as their likelihood of success.

Here is their summary table for economic measures:

biggerThe first three measures were implemented when the war in Ukraine was launched.

The geopolitical measures included an option of providing lethal aid to Ukraine. This would create the risk that Russia would respond militarily and eventually take more of Ukraine than the two Donbas republics:

Taking more of Ukraine might only increase the burden [for Russia], albeit at the expense of the Ukrainian people. However, such a move might also come at a significant cost to Ukraine and to U.S. prestige and credibility. This could produce disproportionately large Ukrainian casualties, territorial losses, and refugee flows. It might even lead Ukraine into a disadvantageous peace.

While they at times underestimate Russia’s capabilities RAND people are not dumb. They knew of the likely outcome of a war.

Other geopolitical measure RAND evaluated included more support for ‘Syrian rebels’, regime change per color revolution in Belarus, to exploit tensions in the southern Caucasus and to reduce Russian influence in Central Asia.

RAND’s summary for geopolitical measures:

biggerThe Trump and Biden administrations both implemented the measures that seemed to have high benefits as well as high risks.

The use of ideological measures against Russia was seen as having rather low benefits.

bigger

There follow more options, mostly in military categories, that the RAND report developed and evaluated. They emphasize industry pork.

The Trump administration took some of the measures RAND provided but seemed not too enthusiastic about them. Its regime change attempt in Belarus failed. The Biden administration changed tact. He endorsed Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the color revolution candidate that had failed the elections in Belarus. Biden also allowed for the delivery of more offensive weapons to Ukraine. The regime in Kiev was encouraged to retake the rebellions Donbas republics. The green light for that was given in early 2022 even as the White House knew that Russia would respond militarily. The consequences for Ukraine that RAND had predicted in 2019 ensued.

The U.S. aim for the war is, as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in April 2022, to ‘weaken Russia’:

A National Security Council spokesperson said that Austin’s comments were consistent with what the US’ goals have been for months – namely, “to make this invasion a strategic failure for Russia.”“We want Ukraine to win,” the spokesperson added. “One of our goals has been to limit Russia’s ability to do something like this again, as Secretary Austin said. That’s why we are arming the Ukrainians with weapons and equipment to defend themselves from Russian attacks, and it’s why we are using sanctions and export controls that are directly targeted at Russia’s defense industry to undercut Russia’s economic and military power to threaten and attack its neighbors.”

That, however, will take a very long time.

Letting the conflict extend longer, concludes a newly released RAND report, is itself a danger. The U.S. must avoid a long war:

The authors argue that, in addition to minimizing the risks of major escalation, U.S. interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict. The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States. Although Washington cannot by itself determine the war’s duration, it can take steps that make an eventual negotiated end to the conflict more likely.

The study (pdf) argues that Ukraine’s retaking of territory Russia controls should not be relevant for U.S. plans. It has little benefits but high costs. Prolonging the war, while having some benefits for the U.S., has even more risk and costs attached to it.

bigger

Especially important to RAND seems to be that the war in Ukraine diverts the U.S. from starting a war with China:

Beyond the potential for Russian gains and the economic consequences for Ukraine, Europe, and the world, a long war would also have on sequences for U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. ability to focus on its other global priorities —particularly, competition with China— will remain constrained as long as the war is absorbing senior policymakers’ time and U.S. military resources.
…
And although Russia will be more dependent on China regardless of when the war ends, Washington does have a long-term interest in ensuring that Moscow does not become completely subordinated to Beijing. A longer war that increases Russia’s dependence could provide China advantages in its competition with the United States.

The U.S., says RAND, can take measures that make a quick end of the war possible. It can press Ukraine to start negotiations and to accept a bad outcome by threatening to stop financing the war. It can encourage Russia to enter into negotiations by offering substantial sanctions relief.

The reports final policy advice concludes:

A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.

Start working on this now, says Rand.

It is likely not by chance that the previous call for an immediate start of negotiations to end the war came from the U.S. Chief of Staff Mark Milley. That he did so publicly was a sign that he had lost the internal White House debate on that issue. He probably asked for the RAND study to bolster his argument.

But the neocons, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, State Secretary Anthony Blinken and his deputy Victoria Nuland, who together wage their war against Russia, have Joe Biden’s ears and can control the information he gets. Milley and other realist will have a difficult stand.

Steady Russian progress in its campaign will be the best argument for them to win the internal war in Washington DC.

Posted by b on January 27, 2023 at 16:57 UTC | Permalink

Evidence For Reincarnation: This Kid Knows Things He Shouldn’t – He Survived Death –

This is really good.

Just incredible. You were correct young man. Those parents are top notch! Good job mom and dad. He came back so quickly after that life but for good reason, he found the right parents to help him heal.

Athenian Stuffed Peppers

Ingredients

• 1 pound ground beef
• 1 cup Minute rice or 1 cup cooked regular rice
• 2 onions, ground
• 1 clove garlic, minced
• 1/2 cup vegetable oil
• 1 (6 ounce) can tomato paste, divided
• 1 1/2 tablespoons salt, divided
• 3/4 teaspoon pepper, divided
• 1/2 teaspoon oregano
• 1 egg, well beaten
• 8 green bell peppers
• 6 cups water
• 5 medium potatoes, sliced

Instructions

1. Combine meat, rice, onions, garlic, oil, 1 tablespoon tomato paste, 1 tablespoon salt, 1/2 teaspoon pepper, oregano and egg.
2. Wash green peppers; cut and remove seeds. Fill peppers with meat mixture; place open side down in circle in roasting pan.
3. Combine remaining ingredients except potatoes; pour over peppers. Place potatoes in center of pan.
4. Bake for 1 hour and 15 minutes at 400 degrees F.

11,000-Year-Old Human Remains Found in British Cave

An astounding discovery in the Heaning Wood Bone Cave in northern England has revealed the oldest human remains found in the region, dating back 11,000 years. A team from the University of Central Lancashire ( UCLAN), uncovered evidence of human activity in the early Mesolithic period, shedding new light on the technologies and cultural habits of our ancestors.

Lead archaeologist Martin Stables says the cave was inhabited in the early Mesolithic period (Middle Stone Age) when Homo sapiens , or modern humans, were the only hominid species to roam in the British Isles.

The Heaning Wood Bone Cave in Cumbria was first excavated in 1958 by E.G. Holland and this limestone formation with a vertical shaft has developed into a complex karstic fissure system. The cave was found to contain the preserved skeletal remains of three adults and a juvenile dated to the Early Bronze Age. However, recent excavations by the UCLAN team has unearthed the true antiquity of the cave in a collection of human remains that date back 11,000 years.

Excavations at the Cumbria cave uncovered human remains, animal bones, stone tools and beads, such as this shell bead. ( UCLan)

Deciphering and Dating Ancient Cave Bones

Prof. Martin Stables has been excavating this northern English cave since the summer of 2016. According to an article on Cumbria Crack , during his work Stables has recovered “animal bone, stone tools, prehistoric pottery and beads made from perforated periwinkle shells.” Included in the collection are the bones of “Bos, Sus and Canis,” reports Heritage Daily .

Furthermore, the archaeologists recovered “stone tools, pottery, and shell beads ” from the Cumbria cave. Of particular interest was a tiny periwinkle shell bead. This informed the researchers that the cave’s inhabitants had access to coastal marine resources.

Researchers from the University of Nevada and Pennsylvania State University studied the artifacts and bones. They determined that the cave was used for burials around 4,000-years-ago in the Early Bronze Age and also around 5,000-years-ago in the Early Neolithic. And while both of these dates were somewhat predictable, what came as a big surprise were human bones that carbon-dated to around 11,000-years-ago, in the Mesolithic period.

Archaeologist Martin Stables exploring a cave. ( UCLan)

Traditional “Oldest Northerner” is Pipped at the Post

The discovery of these 11,000-years-old human remains doesn’t just serve as hard evidence of human activity in northern Britain after the end of the last Ice Age . The surrounding artifacts provide evidence for the technologies and cultural habits of people living 11,000 years ago. According to the BBC, the Cumbria cave remains belong to the “oldest northerner.”

The discovery of these 11,000-years-old human remains doesn’t just serve as hard evidence of human activity in northern Britain after the end of the last Ice Age. - https://ctt.ec/3b6de+

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Dr. Stable said that not in his “wildest dreams” did he ever expect to find anything like the “Early Mesolithic connection” in this cave. He added that after six years digging his research has “ended up in a place I never expected it to get to.”

In an article published in The Mail , the researcher said the dating of the bones and artifacts “are staggering,” adding that it is very difficult to imagine what life would have been like in the cave over 11,000 years ago.

Before this discovery, the earliest “northerner” was a 10,000-year-old burial from the nearby Kent’s Bank Cavern located on the north side of Morecambe Bay. Scientists from Liverpool John Moores University and the University of Nottingham analyzed some of these bones and discovered a fragment of human leg bone dated to just over 10,000 years old.

Part of the tibia of an early human believed to be Homo heidelbergensis discovered at the Boxgrove archaeological site in West Sussex. ( Ethan Doyle White / CC BY-SA 3.0 )

Earliest Human Remains and Tools Discovered to Date in Britain

Earlier remains have been discovered in southern England and Wales but the destructive effect of past glaciations means such finds are exceptionally rare. However, deposited during the Middle Pleistocene, the Boxgrove fossils in Sussex included a fragment of tibia (shinbone) and two teeth from a mature well-built man. It is thought these belonged to the common ancestor of modern humans or Neanderthals, Homo heidelbergensis , who walked around 480,000 years ago.

While the Boxgrove fossils represent the earliest human remains ever discovered in Britain, the discovery of stone tools which date back more than 700,000 years from sites in Suffolk and Norfolk demonstrate that humans were living in Britain long before those from Boxgrove.

In 2010 The Independent announced that archaeologists excavating on a Norfolk beach, near the village of Happisburgh, unearthed more than 70 flint tools belonging to “the first-known prehistoric people to live in Britain.” These extraordinarily old tools, and technologies, were dated as having been made between 1 million and 800,000 years ago.

By Ashley Cowie

What Life Is Like Before And After You Get A Dog

I might have already posed this, but what the heck…

If you decide to get a dog or any other animal as a pet, experienced owners have something to tell you. The owner of a golden retriever, John, shows how his life has changed after getting his pup Maimai — whom he describes as ’’a cute little furry devil’’.

As pup’s owner explains, everyone who has a dog soon starts feeling guilty that they don’t share their food or buy new toys for it. And you can forget about having a tidy apartment — ever again. But it’s all worth it. Because there’s no one else who’s happier than the person who sees their dog greeting them every evening in the hallway.

h/t: brightside, boredpanda, facebook

David Gilmour – Shine On You Crazy Diamond feat. Crosby & Nash (Remember That Night)

We remember and talk about so many great bands, sometimes comparing one against the other. But Pink Floyd is in a league of their own. There’s no other band to compare them to. They are the most legendary group of all time.

Doodle Diary Of A New Mom: An Illustrated Journey Through One Mommy’s First Year

In 2012, Lucy Scott gave birth to her first baby. Despite her extensive pre-baby research, nothing prepared her for the momentous task of caring for this new little person.

Featuring dozens of funny moments like baby’s first lunch out to a forensic view of the living room, this charming doodle collection includes 120 two-color illustrations and is the perfect gift for Mother’s Day, baby showers, or year-round fun. Also included are a few doodling prompts in the back of the book so moms can doodle their own first-year memories.

More: Lucy Scott, Shop

Rory Gallagher – A million miles away 1977

“Somewhere Somehow”: The Superb Dark and Surreal Photoworks of Lidija

These photoworks take me in a mystical atmosphere of childhood fears. It’s very dark and surreal. Unfortunately, there is no information about the author, except that she is from Serbia.

Why are the US mRNA vaccines lousy & the worst covid vaccines among all vaccines available globally?

VP of Pfizer group arrested after leaked documents show only 12% vaccine efficacy and severe side effects. To be verified.

This could be the reason.

Link HERE

Braised Chicken in Aromatic Tomato
Sauce (Pastitsatha)

This dish is one that evolved from Corfu to stretch scant supplies of meat. Consisting of chicken, turkey, beef or veal braised in tomato sauce fragrant with spices, it is served over thick tubular pasta from Corfu called “perciatellli” (if you can’t find it, use spaghetti). Kefalotyri is a nutty tasting hard cheese similar to Parmesan. It is available at Greek markets.

Ingredients

• 1/4 cup olive oil
• 1 (3 pound) chicken, cut into 8 pieces
• 3 cups chopped red onions
• 6 whole allspice
• 1 cinnamon stick
• 1 teaspoon ground cumin
• 1 teaspoon paprika
• 1/2 teaspoon ground nutmeg
• 1/2 teaspoon ground cloves
• Pinch cayenne pepper
• 1 (28 ounce) can whole Italian-style tomatoes, drained, juices reserved, tomatoes chopped
• 1 cup water
• 2 tablespoon (or more) red wine vinegar
• 2 tablespoon tomato paste
• Pinch of granulated sugar
• 12 ounces perciatelli pasta or spaghetti
• Freshly grated kefalotyri cheese or Parmesan cheese

Instructions

1. Heat oil in heavy large Dutch oven over medium-high heat. Add chicken in batches and cook until brown on all sides, about 8 minutes per batch.
2. Place chicken on platter. Add onions to Dutch oven; sauté until tender, about 5 minutes. Add spices; stir until fragrant, about 1 minute. Stir in tomatoes and their juices and water. Return chicken to Dutch oven. Cover; simmer over medium-low heat until chicken is very tender, about 35 minutes.
3. Transfer chicken to platter. Tent with foil. Add 2 tablespoons vinegar, tomato paste and sugar to Dutch oven. Simmer until thickened to sauce consistency, stirring occasionally, about 10 minutes. Season with salt, pepper and more vinegar, if desired. Remove from heat. Cover to keep warm.
4. Cook pasta in large pot of boiling salted water until tender but still firm to bite. Drain. Transfer pasta to platter. Top with chicken, sauce and cheese.

RAND has a follow up study…

I notice that the new RAND report makes risks more clear, and in red highlight.

Their previous concerns in the original report were mostly ignored, and that didn’t turn out so well.

It seems as though RAND now wants to make sure the US doesn’t start a nuclear war, and is a bit worried their concerns won’t be taken seriously, again.

Discussion of the Russia-Ukraine war in Washington is increasingly dominated by the question of how it might end. 

To inform this discussion, this Perspective identifies ways in which the war could evolve and how alternative trajectories would affect U.S. interests. 

The authors argue that, in addition to minimizing the risks of major escalation, U.S. interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict. 

The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States. 

Although Washington cannot by itself determine the war's duration, it can take steps that make an eventual negotiated end to the conflict more likely. 

Drawing on the literature on war termination, the authors identify key impediments to Russia-Ukraine talks, such as mutual optimism about the future of the war and mutual pessimism about the implications of peace. 

The Perspective highlights four policy instruments the United States could use to mitigate these impediments: clarifying plans for future support to Ukraine, making commitments to Ukraine's security, issuing assurances regarding the country's neutrality, and setting conditions for sanctions relief for Russia.

Read the full RAND report HERE

Clayton Morris: NATO is going to get us ALL killed with this move