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The tipping point happened. The crisis point has passed. The battle still rages, but the major threat is now neutralized.

I will be composing a video of significance in the following week or two.

This turning; this Crisis, this potential World War 3 scenario has just passed the crisis stage. We made it!

Phew!

It is behind us. The worst has passed.

Oh, we are not yet through the brambles, and events are still firing, but yeah. We passed through the worst.

And no, it’s not “gonna be in 2027”.

Peak crisis (Climax) has just occurred in May 2023.

It’s done.

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A graphic MM made back in 2021.

Remember, boys and girls, real events are not reported.

Oh, for certain, there will be some trials and political issues with Japan, Korea, and other nations. The United States will continue in it’s long drawn out madness, and all the rest.

But the risk; the BIG GLOBAL RISK, has passed.

Tipping point was some time early 3MAY23.

There will be those of you that will still read the prepper journals and pine-away worrying about nuclear war. And certainly those events can still happen.

But, I am of the (learned) opinion, that the worst is over, and we (as a species) are  moving towards a period of “uncomfortable adjustment of the West to the new global realities“.

More later.

For today…

UH OH! THREE MORE BANKS – STOCK TRADES HALTED – PLUNGING

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BREAKING NEWS: Three more large U.S. Banks have seen their stock values PLUNGE today, causing all three to have stock trading SUSPENDED!

Last night I told my radio audience that, with the Banking Crisis, “We’re just getting started” after First Republic Bank failed. This morning, three MORE banks are heading south . . .

PacWest Bancorp $PACW stock trading halted, citing volatility, after sinking 30% today.

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Western Alliance Bank, $WAL, now down 25%, stock halted.

Metropolitan Bank, $MCB, now down 24%, stock halted.

I also pointed out to my radio audience that some of the very same people who told us all that the COVID-19 “vaccines” were “safe and effective” are now the people telling us the banks are “safe and sound.”

Well, we all found out that the allegedly “safe and effective” COVID vaccines, were nothing of the sort. So what does THAT say for folks who are now telling us the banks are “safe and sound?”

Leaked Chinese Hypersonic Drone Will Change Naval Warfare: WZ-8

Albondigas con Chipotle
(Meatballs in Chipotle Sauce)

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Ingredients

  • 6 fresh, ripe tomatoes, halved
  • 1 pound ground beef
  • 4 tablespoons bread crumbs
  • 2 cloves garlic, chopped
  • 2 whole cloves garlic
  • 3 eggs
  • 2 1/4 teaspoons ground cumin
  • Sea salt, to taste
  • Freshly-ground black pepper, to taste
  • 4 chipotle chiles in adobo
  • 1 cup chicken stock
  • 1 tablespoon dried Mexican oregano
  • 2 tablespoons vegetable oil

Instructions

  1. To roast tomatoes, grill or broil them as close to heat as possible, turning as needed, until skin is blackened in spots, about 3 minutes on each side. Cool.
  2. When cool enough to handle, remove skins. Reserve.
  3. Combine beef, bread crumbs, chopped garlic, eggs, 2 teaspoons cumin, salt and pepper. Cover mixture, and let chill in refrigerator.
  4. In a blender or food processor, blend reserved tomatoes with chipotles, stock, whole garlic cloves, remaining cumin and oregano.
  5. Heat the oil in a heavy skillet. Add the tomato sauce, season to taste with additional salt and pepper, and bring mixture to a boil.
  6. Meanwhile, make uniform medium-size meatballs from meat mixture. Add meatballs to simmering sauce and cook about 25 minutes.
  7. Serve as an entree over rice, or alone as an hors d’oeuvre.

Jiang offered an even better plan, just get both sides to change names to a simple China to acknowledge One China but continue to rule as before. In effect, both sides can live with their own status quo and interpret China according to their own situations. Looks clear that the DPP wants independence by rejecting this is why PLA went on to spend usd trillions to move to Plan B, retaking Taiwan by force.

 

GET OUT NOW, This is a DEATH blow to the US!

https://youtu.be/HGNBnuGtl74

These chains are meant to be broken !

Passengers, please tighten your seat belt, next stop, Hawaii

Surely, the American wouldn’t be bothered with the PLAN loiter around the so call island chain in the name of “Freedom of Nativigation”, right?

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19 countries want to join BRICS

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There are far more nations that are waiting in a line that are not shown on the map.

Like Mexico…

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Like Turkey…

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Like many, MANY African nations…

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Like Canada…

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Like Pakistan…

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TSMC to Charge up to 30% More for Chips Made in the U.S. | Tom’s Hardware

Before it started, the logic of market already issued a death warrant. Thanks to comrade Trump and Biden, the chip industry outside China will soon either gone out of business or backward.
TSMC is ready to produce chips in the U.S., but are its American customers willing to pay extra for them?

Article HERE

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This position is only the most natural, and legally and morally defensible position to take for any nation, not just China.

Actually, this position of refusing to recognize Japan’s attempt to re-annex Ryukyu and even displaying sympathy for Ryukyuan independence has been a long-held one by the government of the Republic of China (ROC), sometimes conveniently referred to as Taiwan, where I am from. It is a position grounded in international law, and fully in keeping with the principles of moral justice, human right and national self-determination. It is shameful that the world community, especially the West, has intentionally turned a blind eye to this gross transgression of international law, justice, and human right for so long. Few cases are better than Ryukyu to expose the West’s hypocrisy and double standard*.

– Ryukyu is an independent nation of its own race, ethnicity, language, history, custom, religion, and culture, all distinct from those of Japan.

– Japan brutally annexed the independent kingdom of Ryukyu in 1879, murdering its people, obliterating its history, culture and language and renamed it Okinawa.

– Japan used Ryukyuans massively as human shields against Allied invasion in WWII (see the HBO series The Pacific, produced by Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks), resulting in decimation of its civilian population. Japan also used this opportunity to murder Ryukyuans of uncounted number, many of which by forced suicide.

– Japan renounced all its claims to Ryukyu/Okinawa and other territories in no uncertain terms when it unconditionally surrendered in 1945, per terms stipulated in the Potsdam Proclamation signed by ROC, the US and the UK.

– Japan re-annexed Ryukyu under tacit agreement by the US, who unilaterally transferred to it “administrative rights” of Ryukyu in the 1970, disregarding vehement objection from the ROC, one of the signatory nations of the Potsdam Proclamation whose opinion by definition was required in such decisions.

– Japan has not treated the Ryukyuans nicely. They have been second class citizens ever since the beginning, and always got the short end of the stick. For more detail, see the links included below.

  • Japan has dumped 74.4% of its share of the US military bases on Ryukyu, which accounts for less than 1% of the Japanese land area. The attendant lion’s share of intrusion, noise, accidents, pollution, rape, crime etc. are born by Ryukyuans alone.
  • Japanese officials can often be caught making racially derogatory remarks about Ryukyuans with impunity, let alone discriminatory and abusive practices committed daily against Ryukyuans in the society accepted as the norm.
  • Native grown voices and movements for greater Ryukyuan autonomy have been relentlessly suppressed by the Japanese government, counter to the liberal façade it presents to the outside world. Without this heavy-handed, anti-democratic oppression by the Japanese government, we would be hearing 100 times more outcries from native Ryukyuans accusing their Japanese colonizers of their crimes, and demanding more autonomy, if not independence.

I grew up in ROC/Taiwan. For a long time, the ROC government vocally expressed its refusal to recognize Japan’s claim to Ryukyu, although it was too weak and too beholden to the US to assert or enforce what was right in this issue. The ROC government has nonetheless insisted on sending ambassadorial level diplomats to the capital of Ryukyu as a protest, and used the name Ryukyu, not Okinawa, in all official proceedings. Such practice has persisted well into the 21st Century, until the DPP regime, backed by major financial donors and supporting US lobbyists with shady Japanese links, came to power. Today on Taiwanese streets one stills finds the name Ryukyu used much more often than Okinawa. Recently when the Governor of Ryukyu, Denny Tamaki, visited Taiwan, he was greeted by the sign “Welcome Governor of Ryukyu”, for which he expressed great appreciation. The well-respected Taiwanese political journal 遠望雜誌 has made it its mission to advocate Ryukyu independence. It is only the most legally and morally defensible position to take.

I should relate a story shared by a friend who lives in the US. Once he and his wife stepped into a sushi restaurant. They sat down, started talking to the sushi chef, and learned that the chef was a Ryukyuan. The next thing he heard was deep resentment, even hatred, toward the Japanese by the chef, who stated that he shared nothing in common with the Japanese, and wished his nation could become free from its oppressors one day. My friend was deeply impressed by the passion displayed by this Ryukyuan chef.

No need for the Ryukyuans to despair. I remember once, in the 1980s, seeing a small group holding a banner of “Independent Lithuania” in the Chicago July 4th parade. Everyone laughed his head off when he saw this procession pass by. But lo and behold, 10 years later, Independent Lithuania was a reality. By international law, Ryukyu has at least as much right to be independent.

We shall see.

* As you may know, whenever I see a brainwashed question about Xinjiang or Tibet, I ask the questioner to ask the same question about Ryukyu first before anyone should bother to answer.

Chinese Recipes Brought to Life: 12 Favorite Recipes Illustrated in Comics for Improved Memory

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Linda Yi is an artist and a lover of Chinese food. As a Sichuanese American, she grew up cooking and eating the delicious cuisine of her heritage.

But, despite her love of cooking, Linda struggled with feeding herself consistently in her 20s. She felt overwhelmed by the thought of having to choose a recipe, grocery shop, and prepare a meal, leading her to resort to takeout or cold cereal for dinner.

More: Kickstarter h/t: boredpanda

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Police Body Cam: THIS is the type of Sociopath our Society is Producing

Police Body-Cam footage from East Peoria, IL shows in vivid, stunning, detail, exactly the type of complete sociopaths our society is producing.  The woman killed two people while driving drunk and all she wants to know is when she can get her car and go to school.

Watch:

Sheech!

Amazingly, when the arresting officer tells her that she seems to care less that she killed two people, she has the unmitigated gall to ask “Can you say that to me as a cop?”

Why, sweetheart? A little too abrasive for your snowflake feelings?

I am not a Psychiatrist, and I don’t have any special training in the mental health field, but as an average man, THIS is what I envision a “sociopath” as being; no empathy, no remorse, no concern WHATSOEVER for anyone or anything, other than herself.

THIS is the type of monster our society is producing.  People who are totally self-centered and self-absorbed.

This story is about the engineer who worked in various major companies like Yahoo, Microsoft, Baidu, etc, contributed greatly, and was also the creator of what we now know as “Yahoo Shopping”.

He is Qi Lu.

During his twenties, his biggest dream was to study in the United States. But, in China, if you wanted to go to the States, you had to take two tests. The fees to take them were sixty dollars. His salary each month was about seven dollars.

So, to take the tests he needed to amass eight months’ worth of salary.

But on a Sunday night, things changed. As usual, he was planning to ride to his family in the village like he did every Sunday but on this particular day, it was raining heaving, and Qi stayed in his dorm room.

That evening, a friend came by to ask for help. A visiting professor from Carnegie Mellon University was about to give a lecture on model checking, but because of the rain, attendance was embarrassingly low. Qi agreed to help fill the seats, and during the lecture, he asked some questions. Afterward, the professor complimented Qi on the points he’d raised and wondered if he’d done any research on the topic.

Turns out, Qi hadn’t just done some research—he’d published five papers.

The professor asked to see the papers. Qi fetched them from his dorm room. After the professor looked them over, he asked Qi if he’d be interested in studying in the United States.

Qi explained his financial constraints and the professor said he would waive the sixty-dollar qualification tests. Qi applied, and months later, a letter arrived. Carnegie Mellon offered him a full scholarship.

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Now, none of this would have happened if it hadn’t rained that day. But none of them would have happened if he was not been the most prepared person in the room either.

He had worked incredibly hard. Reengineered his sleep patterns to four hours so he could’ve more hours to work. There was nothing coincidental about the papers he had published.

When asked about luck and coincidence, he said,

“Luck is like a bus. If you miss one, there’s always the next one. But if you’re not prepared, you wouldn’t be able to jump on”.

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Absolutely

India doesn’t need to become a One Party Nation or a Communist Nation for that

All India needs is

  • Drastic Legislation
  • Massive Base Education Program at Government Cost
  • Meritocracy and more Meritocracy
  • Failure Standards and Continuous evaluation in every arena

That’s how China became what it is

It was a Communist Autocracy for 43 years and yet was the same level as India

So it couldn’t have been Autocracy alone that steered Chinas massive growth. It should have been the above qualities


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Education and Meritocracy are Chinas biggest strength

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Social Justice, Reservations and Cheap Politics are Indias biggest weaknesses

In China,being poor gets you nothing except a free schooling and a lunchtime meal and community tutions

In China, the richer and poorer students go to similar Public Schools with the same Syllabus

So you can’t make excuses of poverty or of daddys daddy being oppressed

China says “Too bad. If you don’t have the merit , please go work at a farm”


Another biggest strength of the Chinese System is ACCOUNTABILITY and FAILURE STANDARDS

Any Problem and China will zero in on the culprit in minutes or days

Every Department has its own role to play

Every Ministry has its own Failure Standards and Performance standards and Promotions are based on these standards

Take Chinas 4.5% Growth for Q1 against the Target 3.9%.

Many Officials got rewarded, promoted

Had this been 3.2% Growth, then many officials wouldnt have got promoted for a long time

Every blunder in China has to be paid with

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India is the opposite

Zero Accountability, Zero failure Standards, Zero Goals for the Government and Excuses all the time

The Greatest Weakness

Like Sivans 98% Success


So definitely yes

India must follow the Chinese basics and they can do so even without having to be a dictatorship or an Autocracy

And of course China slogged hard for 45 years

India wants to sit down and expect magic to happen. That attitude must also change

Pay attention

Well known in China, NEVER reported on in the West. Pay attention people. Your lives would be much, much better, inflation would be lower, quality of life would be higher, if you would follow this simple Chinese model of governance.

A shocking figure was announced by the Chinese leader Xi Jinping: “For two five-year periods in China, 3.7 million bribe-takers were sent to court. And we are very worried about corruption”‼️

This figure is equal to the ENTIRE population of Kharkiv, Odesa and Dnipro TOGETHER.

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I would want to ask any Chinese comrades: “And how did you achieve such success if you do not have anti-corruption bodies – such as the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office and the High Anti-Corruption Court?”

In Ukraine it would be useful to adopt such practical experience.

Yoon Seok-Yeol’s reckless embrace of America

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On Saturday I visited a mini-museum in Seoul themed on the island of Dokdo, a small series of rocks and cliffs which Korea has fiercely defended its national sovereignty over amidst its territorial dispute with Japan. I was vaguely surprised that the museum had been allowed to continue to exist, especially seen as the foreign policy of the Yoon Seok Yeol presidency is now to improve ties with Japan and effectively brush historical disputes between the two countries under the carpet.

More surprising still, was the fact the museum highlighted that in 1948, the US Air Force conducted a series of bombing training missions around Dokdo island that resulted in the deaths of many Korean fishermen, I considered such as historical facts that might be scarcely acknowledged amidst the love in for the US that dominates this current, and its present leadership. As it happens, Yoon is visiting the United States today on an official state visit, having prepared the ground lavishly by attempting to unilaterally settle the wartime forced labour dispute and antagonizing China over Taiwan.

Despite South Korea’s overtly pro-American stance, and nationalist antagonism that has emerged pertaining to China over cultural patents, Yoon’s policies have ultimately proved to be deeply unpopular and have led to widespread disapproval from the Korean public. To say the least, Yoon is a right-wing populist, Trumpian sort of leader, with no political experience, who won political office by being controversial and aggressively opposing feminism, having exploited a dispute with President Moon Jae in while he was public prosecutor in order to put himself in the spotlight.

Having become President, his foreign policy is quite simple, to tilt towards the US and Japan, while taking a harsher approach to China, despite the overwhelming economic relationship between the two countries as neighbours, as well as unravelling the peace regime with North Korea, and sticking his nose in on Ukraine. Such of course is natural for South Korean conservatives, who stem from a traditional camp of Anti-Communism and of course are the successors of the right-wing dictatorships who governed the country from the 1950s to the 1980s, such as Syngman Rhee and Park Chung-hee. One only has to look at the unhinged supporters of such who gather in Gwanghuamun regularly, waving US and Korean flags together, and often simultaneously espouse zealous US evangelical style Christianity.

However, to take this path is a fundamental betrayal of Korean interests. First of all, the US is wilfully undermining the South Korean economy in pursuit of its crusade against China. By rewriting the global semiconductor supply chain, the US has strongarmed Korean semiconductor firms to invest in capacity in the United States, while simultaneously China’s own semiconductor expansion, a forced reaction to the US technology war, is undermining South Korea’s own favourable trade surplus with the US. Secondly, the United States has imposed unilateral and extraterritorial jurisdictions on Korean firms which block them from expanding in the China market, something of course which will obviously backfire. While other US protectionist policy, such as the Inflation reduction act, penalizes a wide variety of Korean industries.

When Yoon Seok Yeol began his US trip, he met with the CEO of Netflix, who pledged an additional $2.5 billion or so to invest in Korean content, a booming market. Yet if Yoon seeks to market that as the “prize” of his growing subservience to the US and the only thing he can gain for his country from such a visit, that truly leaves much to be desired. Even his one-sided grovelling to Japan over the wartime labour and comfort woman issue brought very little in terms of political concessions. On every front, he is selling out his country, and no doubt in Washington he will agree to a lengthy bilateral statement which will seek to lock South Korea into a number of anti-China commitments, such as aspirations for a “free and open Indo Pacific” and “preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan strait”, and potentially, deeper cooperation with the Quad, while finally taking aim at North Korea.

None of this will ultimately serve to empower South Korea, it will make it even more a client state of the United States, who is happy for Yoon to recklessly antagonize China, North Korea and Russia simultaneously, creating a myriad of crises which will jeopardize the stability, security and prosperity of South Korea. We can only hope South Koreans will send him the same way Park Geun-Hye went amidst his staggering incompetence.

What MM thinks…

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It’s pretty obvious.

There are people who would sell off their family; sell their daughters into prostitution, their sons into slavery, pimp out their wives, and sell their dogs to the local butcher so that they can eat table scraps from their master’s table.

Yun Seok-yeol is one such person.

But he represents South Korea, and obviously he was elected by the majority of South Koreans. So obviously, they all share his world view; share his love for the United States, and share his desire for Korea to become the next Ukraine.

As a “American style” democracy, the spokesperson of Korea has clearly enunciated the desires and wants of the South Korean people. We have to respect that.

Cattle Baron’s Pepper Steak

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Ingredients

  • Top sirloin or T-bone steak
  • Worcestershire sauce
  • Black pepper
  • Green bell peppers
  • Onions
  • Mushrooms
  • Butter
  • Cracked black pepper
  • Seasoned salt

Instructions

  1. Rub a top sirloin or T-bone steak with Worcestershire sauce and black pepper and allow it to sit for about 15 minutes.
  2. Meanwhile, roughly cut green peppers, onions and whole mushrooms.
  3. Sauté in butter, keeping them slightly crisp.
  4. Season with cracked black pepper and seasoned salt.
  5. Grill steak to the desired degree of doneness.
  6. Cover steak with the sautéed vegetables.
  7. Serve with baked potatoes.

THIS IS WW3, the U.S. is in real trouble!

https://youtu.be/Fqlo7YeN_1M

Ukraine SitRep: Offensive In Doubt – No Talks – Social Breakdown

Since early April, when Pentagon briefing slides about the state of the Ukrainian army ‘leaked’ onto the web, the writing in ‘western’ media about the much discussed Ukrainian counteroffensive has become more gloomy.The hyping is largely gone and the assessments become more realistic. Three days ago the London Times offered a piece in that category:

Ukraine isn’t ready for its big offensive, but it has no choice (paywalled, archived version)
Kyiv is locked into a spring or summer push despite burning through ammo so fast that the West can’t keep up. Luckily Russia is out of ideas too

[W]hile the Ukrainians are moving quickly to assimilate their 230 new and reconditioned western tanks and 1,550 armoured vehicles, they still lack proper air defences for any big offensive operation. That puts them at risk from Russian airpower. Western defence sources are also uncertain whether senior commanders can adapt to the new systems as well as their soldiers on the ground.Yet Kyiv has little real choice but to launch a major spring or summer offensive. Its leaders are increasingly boxed in. As an American defence official put it: “The Ukrainians have surprised us as well as Putin in the past, but have much less room for manoeuvre now . . . and the Russians know it.”

President Zelensky has managed the West with great skill, but to maintain its support he has to show what Washington insiders rather tastelessly call a “return on investment”.

He must also balance domestic politics. Hawks such as Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, prevent any meaningful talk about negotiations, even though some in the government think now is the time to put out feelers. One western diplomat in Kyiv described a “surreal parallel experience” as his interlocutors “discuss potential formats for negotiations one evening” and then “shout that there can be no talks with Russia” in public the next day.

During the war Kiev first burned through its standing army material and personnel. It then received a large amount of Soviet era equipment from former Warsaw Pact members and burned through that stash. It has now received ‘western’ arms for a third army that will largely consist of mobilized civilians with little military experience. After the counteroffensive has run its course, no matter the outcome, that third army will largely be destroyed. There will be no more material and personnel for a fourth army.

In contrast the Russian military is largely undamaged. So says General Cavoli, the U.S. commander in Europe:

Russian ground forces have suffered significant losses in Ukraine. Despite these setbacks, and their diminished stockpiles of equipment and munitions, Russian ground forces still have substantial capability and capacity, and continue to possess the ability to regenerate their losses.Russia remains a formidable and unpredictable threat that will challenge U.S. and European interests for the foreseeable future. Russian air, maritime, space, cyber, and strategic forces have not suffered significant degradation in the current war. Moreover, Russia will likely rebuild its future Army into a sizeable and more capable land force [..] Russia retains a vast stockpile of deployed and non-deployed nuclear weapons [..] …
Russia pursues a military modernization program that prioritizes a range of advanced conventional, hybrid, and nuclear capabilities to coerce the West. […] These weapons provide Russia asymmetric threats to NATO and present new challenges to Western response options.

If or when the Ukrainian counteroffensive will start is still an open question. The weather is a major factor:

The spring rains have been much more intense this year than normal. The heavy downpours in Zaporizhzhia over the last few weeks have turned the battlefield into a gelatinous soup.“This has been an unusual spring,” a commander with the brigade said. “There has never been this much rain before.”

There is of course also the question of ammunition. Ukraine already lacks sufficient numbers of artillery rounds. Each days it uses more than it receives and what it receives is more than the ‘west’ can produce. The counteroffensive will burn through whatever ammo is left. Then what?

There may be additional reasons to hold up the counter offense. The British Ministry of Defense is requesting offers from the industry for some specific equipment. Among it are mine breaching equipment for main battle tanks, tank launched bridges with 70 tons capacity and transporters for heavy main battle tanks.

With around 40 tons Soviet tanks are build significant lighter than ‘western’ tanks which weigh up to 70 tons. The newly delivered Leopard and other tanks can not pass over typically Ukrainian country bridges without seriously damaging them. Without the necessary infrastructure and support equipment in place the ‘western’ tanks are largely useless. To launch a counteroffensive against hardened Russian defense lines without such equipment is not really possible.

But waiting is not possible either. There is not only the pressure from Washington and other supporters of the war in Ukraine but there is also the permanent threat of Russian strikes on the accumulated stocks and forces. As longer those stay in the preparation areas the higher is the chance that they will get detected and destroyed.

Over the last two weeks Russia destroyed a large part of the Ukrainian air defenses in the Kherson and Pavlograd region. There are no replacements for those systems.

Still, the British Ministry of Defense seams to believe that the war will continue for several more years. For Ukraine it also wants to acquire:

Missiles or Rockets with a range 100-300km; land, sea or air launch. Payload 20-490kg

The closing day for that request is May 4. If you happen to have a few of those missiles laying around or if can produce those you have two more days to make your offer. But realistically the earliest possible delivery for such missiles will likely be in 2024/25. One wonders if Ukraine will by then still be around.

Yves Smith is discussing the chances of a ceasefire after the counteroffensive has run its course. She finds that Russia is unlikely to agree to one without receiving very significant concessions:

I don’t see how peace talks get anywhere. The hawks are still in the driver’s seat and will either balk at negotiations or set preconditions. Recall Russia previously rejected preconditions; even if they were to entertain them now, the odds are very high the West’s initial demands, like an immediate ceasefire, would be rejected, or quickly vitiated by Russian counters like “Only if you suspend the sanctions.” That does not mean there won’t be backchannel chatter, but don’t expect it to go far.

Let’s charitably assume, despite all that, that the West actually does ask Russia to negotiate. Unless the request is made in an obviously unacceptable manner, Russia has to entertain it.But I don’t see how this goes anywhere until leaders in West have really, really internalized that Russia holds a great hand and does not have good reasons to stop until it has subjugated Ukraine.

And all Russia has to do to substantively sabotage negotiations is to bring up the demand that Putin has been making in different forms since the Munich Security Conference of 2007: security guarantees.

Who will give them? The gleeful French and German admissions of duplicity with respect to the Minsk Accords means no NATO state can be trusted, save maybe Turkey (and if Erdogan survives, he’ll likely be deemed too close to Russia to be acceptable). The US clearly can’t be trusted. China would not be acceptable, and is not suited to the role (it’s not a land power and does not have a presence in theater).

So unless some tail events happen (and Taleb warns tails are fat), we still look to be on course to Russia prosecuting the war until it can impose terms on Kiev.

Meanwhile the social-economic situation in Ukraine is getting worse:

The scene in the pawn shop illustrates the crisis of growing poverty in Ukraine, the reality of which stands in contrast to the surface bustle of Kyiv’s busy restaurants and bars where it is often hard to get a table, with many living a precarious existence.Poverty increased from 5.5% to 24.2% in Ukraine in 2022, pushing 7.1 million more people into poverty with the worst impact out of sight in rural villages, according to a recent report by the World Bank. With unemployment unofficially at 36% and inflation hitting 26.6% at the end of 2022, the institution’s regional country director for eastern Europe, Arup Banerji, had warned that poverty could soar.

Behind his window in Treasure, Stepanov describes the hardships experienced even by those who have work. “The price of everything has gone up. Food is the most expensive and then it is fuel for the car. Some things have gone up by 40-50%. Before the war my wife would go to the supermarket to shop and it would cost 200 hryvnia, now the same shop costs 400-500.”

The billions of dollars and Euros the ‘west’ provided to Ukraine are skimmed off by those who visit fancy restaurants and bars in Kiev. Those not in the bribes receiving circles will have to get used to being hungry.

Posted by b on May 2, 2023 at 16:32 UTC | Permalink

Technically he would have to be

However there are many ways out of this

First is DIPLOMATIC IMMUNITY

If Putin comes at South Africa’s invitation , then he becomes a Diplomat and any and all warrants against him become null and void

Best example of this is Kim Jong Un who visited Singapore on invitation of Lee Hsien Loong and so had the immunity

Another example is Bokkasa (African Leader)

So South Africa may invite Putin separately and end this issue

Second is EQUAL APPLICATION OF LAW

South Africa may simply say they need to recognise that a crime was committed by Putin before enforcing the Warrant

South Africa may say they don’t feel there is sufficient Evidence to enforce the warrant or even say that such a law doesn’t exist in South Africa

Third is the “F**k off” Law

South Africa simply refuses to arrest Putin and tells the ICC to do what it feels like

ICC cannot expel South Africa as that would be counter productive

Fourth is the DIRECT TERRITORY law

Putin lands in an African Nation that doesn’t recognise the ICC and lands by Chopper right on Russian Soil and the BRICS summit is held at the Russian Cultural Center in Johannesburg which is an extension of the Russian Embassy

So Putin technically is in Russia

Or say the Chinese Heritage Centre or the Indian Independence Centre

All SA needs is to make these places and extension of their embassies

It’s very easy indeed

The Law is already in place

In the 1970s when Soviet Defectors had to escape to Western Embassies, the South Africans simply had such centers designated as Embassy extensions so that BOSS could give excuses that the territory was not in their jurisdiction

Plus another dozen more


My guess is Putin won’t come

Putin will already be talking with Xi and Modi and he recently talked to Lula

So only the South African is left

My guess is Lavrov will attend

Or if Medvedev comes I would love it

Imagine Medvedev facing the ICC!!!!!!! He would tell them the names of their children and where they go to school and watch them quail in terror

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Greg

I’d say the East Peoria event is staged. They wouldn’t release all that footage so soon to the public if it were real. There have been agg DUI’s in my area and only the basic details were released.

Apostolos

Greetings MM and everybody else,

I feel indeed very sorry not to agree with the learned opinion. WWW3 is planned almost a century ago and inevitable as well as imminent is plainly just waiting an accident which will surely happen.

Things to watch:
a> US forces evacuation of Syria (or annihilation).
b> Turkish military action or full blown war against Greece (both NATO members).
c> Russia’s full military engagement against Turkey.

And it remains as of yet unknown the breakdown of army coalitions which probably will be more than two and the global human toll.

LORD JESUS CHRIST HAVE MERCY ON ME THE SINNER AND ALL OF US