So, I took my vacation. Normally I live in China, but every year I take a “vacation” to another nation to live “like a local” Last year was Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. This year it’s Bangkok.

Bangkok is always a favorite place of mine. I just love the people. Period.
But this year I see what is going on “in the rest of the world” though my Chinese eyes.

Lots and lots of Chinese visitors. Sure there’s an abnormal amount of Westerners in Thailand, but the huge numbers of Chinese was a bit of a surprise. Much more than I figured given the “Thailand is dangerous” tropes that have been flooding the Chinese internet as of late.
Size shrinkage on American chain restaurants. Regular portion sizes and affordable meals for the most part (excluding the fancy-pantsy joints). However, if you go into a American chain, you will see portion shrinkage. I went to KFC, and ordered a large coffee. The coffee portion was small, like REALLY small. It was the size of a paper Dixie “sampler” cup. Whoa!
Noisy. I have forgotten that outside of China the rest of the world is still in the 19th century. Noisy gasoline engines everywhere, with motors-scooters, and chainsaws, and hedge-trimmers. If you are not used to it (Like I used to be when living in the ‘States) it’s terribly jarring.
No free Wifi. In China wifi is generally free, everywhere, and 5.5G. I found a few hot-spots (for a price) at 5G, but most was 2.5G and pricey. Most locals get a SIMM and use roaming charges tied to their phone accounts.
Lots of interesting people. This hasn’t changed. Thailand is full of all sorts of people with interesting stories. But this time, I shared a pool in my apartment complex with some Ukrainian beauties with NAZI tattoos. Not judging. Just reporting the changing times.
My daughter is an attraction. No matter where I go, my daughter attracts the ladies. They love her pale skin, mixed race, and huge smile. I thought that it would be a little different in Thailand as they seem to have darker skin and flatter broader noses. But that is not the case at all. My expectations fall flat when it hits the door of reality.
The West is in a tailspin, but SE Asia is thriving. Thailand, as well as the rest of South East Asia are thriving. China and the rest of Asia are doing just great, and you can see that, and the “news” out of the West is a disturbing contrast. Screeching horrors vs. a pleasant reality.

Just some observations.

Now, I don’t want to be offensive, but (ah, I cannot help myself).

Lots of “white water buffaloes” shambling around. They seem to be from the USA, England or Nordic nations. It was this way 20 years ago, and that hasn’t changed at all. Perhaps it was that way in 1930 during Colonial times too.
Many Anglo-Saxon men of various national pedigrees. I guess that I fit this description too. Though they generally are traveling in small groups of 2 – 3 men and talking about other people they know and business, money making opportunities, etc.
A couple of international couples. Some with kids, some not. Just your typical iconic internet franchise. I guess.
Youth. Some young college-aged, or early 20’s kids having the time of their lives. Well, who can blame them. Right?
Lots and lots of Indians. Yeah, I know this is the case, but they are strangely absent inside of China, so for me it’s kind of a shocker. They have money, wealth and travel. But fear China, and steer away from it.

One final note, no indictment on Thailand, but rather a statement on people. The apartment that we rented is nice, new, recently furnished with all new appliance. But the owner is absent. He just brokered workers to install the furnishings.

Nice. He did all the work, via his laptop. new everything. Carpets, drapes, linens, kitchen appliances, and you know, a brand new wifi router.

But this router is locked, but no password.

Other people in similar apartments told me that none of the places had wifi, yet they all possessed brand new routers. WTF?

So though detective sleuthing, I found out what happened. The bozo who bought the block of apartments just contracted out all the work. The IT guy came in installed the router, and told the owner who is probably not computer savvy. And so, he just kept the passwords to himself. Rendering all the routers in the entire apartment building worthless bricks.

A locked router without a password is just a useless brick.

So yeah. I have wifi, but I had to do some serious sleuthing after a 14 hour flight and adventure. As a courtesy to the next people, i put the password on a adhesive label on placed it on the back of the router. Do unto others… right?

And that all for now. Maybe someone out there in the void might appreciate my observations. Be good you all.

…

Snow that does not melt?

What the Hell is going on inside of the USA?

America Has Changed Completely Since 2020 — Everyone Sees It

America has changed completely since 2020 and everyone sees it. Americans are feeling the cost of living crisis, inflation, rising prices, job layoffs, and a deep cultural shift that’s hard to ignore. Something is very different about life in America right now, and people everywhere are waking up to it.

In this video, we talk about the quiet realization spreading across the country as everyday Americans notice the economy tightening, communities changing, trust eroding, and a growing sense that the American way of life is not what it used to be. From grocery bills and utility costs to job security, housing, and the pace of modern life, many people sense that we’re entering a new chapter.

This isn’t just about politics or headlines. It’s about a shared feeling that the ground beneath us has shifted. More families are questioning the system, rethinking priorities, turning to preparedness, self-sufficiency, frugal living, and a return to simpler values. If you’ve felt like something is “off” but couldn’t quite put it into words, you’re not alone. Americans across the country are recognizing the signs, adapting, and searching for stability in uncertain times.

Let’s talk about what’s really happening, why so many people feel it, and what it means for the future of America.

I’m really glad that I am at the other end of the world.

…

Meanwhile…

FLASH: Bank of Japan Announces “Foreign Bond Selloff” at 9:00 AM Tokyo Time

Hal Turner World February 12, 2026 Hits: 8888

The Bank of Japan issued a sudden announcement at about 3:00 PM eastern US time today (Thursday) telling the world they will conduct a Selloff of “Foreign Bonds” beginning at 7:00 PM Eastern US Time tonight, which translates into 9:00 AM Friday morning, in Tokyo.

This comes just three DAYS after China instructed their banks to “Dump Every Dollar” and eliminate their exposure to anything denominated in “Dollars.” (Story Here)

This a calamity.

Bonds are the rock-solid, steel-reinforced-concrete foundation, of literally EVERY other financial instrument and transaction. Bonds are the basis of E V E R Y T H I N G.

Let me explain:

The bond market — particularly the market for high-quality government bonds (e.g., U.S. Treasuries) — serves as the foundational benchmark for virtually all other financial instruments. It establishes the risk-free rate and the yield curve (the term structure of interest rates), which act as the baseline “cost of money” against which every other asset is priced, valued, and hedged.

The Risk-Free Rate as the Universal Benchmark

Government bonds from creditworthy sovereigns (U.S., Germany, Japan, etc.) are treated as essentially default-free. Their yields therefore represent the risk-free rate—the theoretical minimum return an investor requires for tying up capital with zero credit risk.

This rate is the starting point for pricing everything else:

Stocks and equities: In the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the expected return on a stock = risk-free rate + β × equity risk premium.

Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuations of companies, projects, or real estate also start with the risk-free rate as the base discount rate, then layer on risk premia.

A rise in Treasury yields directly raises the hurdle rate for all risky investments, lowering present values.

Corporate bonds and credit instruments: Yield = risk-free (Treasury) yield of similar maturity + credit spread (compensation for default and liquidity risk).

Corporate, municipal, and emerging-market bonds are all quoted as spreads over the government curve.

Mortgages, consumer loans, and bank lending: Mortgage rates are typically the 10-year Treasury yield + a spread.

Auto loans, credit cards, and corporate borrowing move in tandem because banks and lenders fund themselves relative to the Treasury curve.

Derivatives: Interest-rate swaps, futures, and options are built directly on the government yield curve. The Black-Scholes model (and its variants) uses the risk-free rate to price options.

Currency forwards and cross-currency basis swaps embed interest-rate differentials derived from bond markets.

Currencies and FX: Carry trades and exchange-rate expectations are driven by interest-rate differentials between countries’ bond yields. Higher bond yields in one country tend to strengthen its currency.

In short, all other instruments can be conceptually decomposed as “risk-free bond + risk adjustment.”

The bond market supplies the risk-free component; everything else is the premium layered on top.

The Yield Curve as the “Cost of Funding”

The shape of the government yield curve (short-term vs. long-term rates) is the market’s collective view of future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. It is the primary indicator of the economy-wide cost of capital and is used to:

Price fixed-income securities of all types.
Set discount rates in actuarial, pension, and insurance calculations.
Determine repo rates and collateral values in the plumbing of the financial system (government bonds are the dominant form of collateral in repurchase agreements and derivatives clearing).

Supporting Evidence from Market Size and Expert Consensus

The global bond/credit market is roughly three times larger than the global equity market and far more liquid in many segments. What China and Japan are now doing . . . . is SMASHING it.

Government bonds are the bedrock of capital markets: “serving as benchmarks whose yields influence other financial instruments like corporate bonds, mortgages, and derivatives. Many financial transactions use government securities as collateral for hedging against risk, and to guide pricing.”

Ray Dalio has repeatedly called the (U.S.) bond market “the backbone of all markets” because it sets the risk-free interest rate against which every other asset is measured.

Why This Relationship Is “Foundational”

When bond yields move, the entire pricing grid for stocks, real estate, private equity, infrastructure, derivatives, and loans shifts in response.

A sustained rise in Treasury yields raises borrowing costs economy-wide, compresses equity valuations, widens credit spreads, and can strengthen the currency.

A fall in yields does the opposite.

No other single market has this universal, mechanical transmission mechanism.

In essence, the bond market does not merely coexist with other financial instruments—it defines the baseline return and risk-free benchmark from which all other instruments derive their value and required compensation for risk.

This is why central banks, investors, and policymakers watch the bond market (especially the U.S. Treasury curve) more closely than any other for signals about the health and direction of the entire financial system.

First China, and now Japan, are taking financial SLEDGE HAMMERS to the US Bond Market. Literally! It will impact the E N T I R E financial system and the E N T I R E financial stability of the United States (and by extension, the world.)

As the Bonds are sold by China and Japan, the Bond Market will view US Bonds as “riskier.” That will FORCE interest rates on those bonds to go up, because otherwise Investors will not buy the Bonds.

As the US Bond Market is forced to raise the amount it pays, E V E R Y T H I N G else will have to go up, too.

But there isn’t enough money to pay the new Interest rates. Companies will not be able to refinance debt. They will default.

Real Estate Commercial Mortgages will go up. Companies won’t be able to afford the new Interest and they will default.

Layoffs will come.

Without jobs, consumers will stop buying, causing massive economic downturn.

This will trigger layoffs in ALL industries, which will make everything worse.

Those Consumers won’t be able to pay their mortgages, their auto loans, their credit card bills . . . they will default.

As creditors see their income all defaulting, THEY will go under.

The financial destruction will be everywhere.