Is the crisis of the Fourth Turning in process right now?

For the longest time, I had believed that the Strauss and Howe predictions for the Fourth Turning was correct but that the timing was slightly off. Instead of a Crisis Catalyst in 2005 and a Climax in 2020. I argued that the Crisis Catalyst occurred three years later in 2008. Which would launch a Climax in 2023.

Now I am not so sure.

What Strauss and Howe stated

If the Crisis catalyst comes on schedule, around the year 2005, then the  climax will be due around 2020, the resolution around 2026. 

What will  America be like as it exits the Fourth Turning? History offers no  guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong—the  possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues,  from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume  that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible  tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary  hardship, but debasement and total ruin. 

Since Vietnam, many Americans  suppose they know what it means to lose a war. 

Losing in the next Fourth  Turning, however, could mean something incomparably worse. It could  mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence—and perhaps even  our nation—might never recover. As many Americans know from their own  ancestral backgrounds, history provides numerous examples of  societies that have been wiped off the map, ground into submission, or  beaten so badly they revert to barbarism.

Indeed, the dates are close but seem to be off by a few years.

In our case, it appears that the “Crisis catalyst” did not occur in 2005 as predicted. It occurred in 2008 with the Wall Street “too big to fail” debacle.

That was three years later.

But does that mean that the Climax would also be delayed by three years?

I am now thinking “no”.

What is the Forth Turning Crisis?

This is what Strauss and Howe wrote;

And finally we enter the Fourth Turning, which is a Crisis. 

This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. 

Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. 

In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity. 

Currently, this period began in 2008, with the Global Financial Crisis and the deepening of the War on Terror, and will extend to around 2030. 

If the past is any prelude to what is to come, as we contend, consider the prior Fourth Turning which was kicked off by the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II. 

Just as a Second Turning reshapes our inner world (of values, culture and religion), a Fourth Turning reshapes our outer world (of politics, economy and empire). 

To be clear, the road ahead for America will be rough. 

But I take comfort in the idea that history cycles back and that the past offers us a guide to what we can expect in the future. 

Like Nature’s four seasons, the cycles of history follow a natural rhythm or pattern. Make no mistake. Winter is coming. How mild or harsh it will be is anyone’s guess but the basic progression is as natural as counting down the days, weeks and months until Spring. 

As you can see, the essay originally published on 3/11/19 by Neil Howe confirmed that the “Crisis catalyst” did not occur in 2005 as predicted. It occurred in 2008 with the Wall Street “too big to fail” debacle.

But no one knows exactly WHEN the actual Crisis will occur.

It could be as early as 2020, or as late as 2025. And as I look at what is going on around the world, most especially with the belligerent activities of the American military empire, I see elements of a Hot War everywhere.

A “hot war” is a hallmark of this Crisis.

The Hot War

America has been involved in all sorts of operations against China since 2017 when Trump become President and John Bolton was put in charge of the Bio-Weapons office.

John Bolton was in charge of the American military bio-weapons operation.

• John Bolton is a Dangerous Neocon Who Wants to Wage …
• John Bolton: The Angriest Neocon – TIME
• John Bolton – Neocon/Zionist Warmonger/Psychopath …
• John Bolton is out, but neocon agenda stays | The Grayzone

Most notably was the attempt(s) at trying to generate famine and starvation inside China. This all was attempted by the selective destruction of food, grains, and livestock via drone-propagated bio-weapons.

But…

…it is when PEOPLE are targeted for death and destruction is when a “hot war” occurs.

I am convinced that the Hot War started in 2020 with the carpet bombing of China by the three strains of bio-weapons designed to target the Chinese people.

• COVID-19 strain B against China, Iran. (Death by seizure virus) February 2020
• SFTS Virus (Death by vomiting virus) August 2020
• H1N1 flu G4 strain (Death by diarrhea virus) July 2020

But, China hit back…

The plan to “suppress” China fell flat on it’s face.

You see, China threw the COVID 19 B-strain right back at the USA in April 2020.

No longer was the COVID-19 A-strain (light sniffle virus) going to provide herd immunity. The lethal B-strain was starting to rampage. And Americans started to “drop like flies” just like they did inside of China on CNY2020.

And suddenly, out of the blue, all Americans were told to start wearing masks in (May 2020). That the “herd immunity” is no longer possible.

And the Washington Elite were clueless…

Well, you would think that the USA would “take the hint”.

Nope.

They “stuck to their guns” and “doubled down”.

And when the reports started to surface that the American designed COVID-19 B-strain lethal bio-weapon suddenly showed up inside of America…

…in April 2020…

…Trump said, not more “Mr. Nice Guy”, and used his black operation forces inside of China to torch the newest Chinese Naval vessel…

• China Type-075 amphibious assault ship catches fire. April 2020.

Which the Chinese effectively put out. They repaired the damage in record time, and launched on schedule.

But then, you know…

…and make no mistake…

… the Chinese were well aware of what was going on and told the American leadership exactly that.

They told the Americans that a measured response to all provocations will now occur. And a “tit for tat” series of battles began.

So, two months later…

• United States amphibious assault ship USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD 6)  caught fire on July 2020. It burned for three days and was a total and complete loss. It was later hauled off to the scrap yard for disassembly.

Oh, well, that was not to the liking of President Trump.

Washington still did not accept the message…

So that is when he unleashed the (Death by diarrhea virus) in July 2020 in China. This is a very, very nasty tick based virus. In Beijing. You do realize that there are no ticks in Beijing, don’t you?

Ah, the American media...

...keeping Americans stupefied since 1980.

And as soon as the CIA courtiers handed the vials to their local assets inside of China…

…these “assets”, in a strong action suggesting of Chinese patriotism, and perhaps some Geo-political understanding…

… dutifully handed over the vials to the PLA immediately.

And Washington DC was stunned.

So. Round Two. Or is it three, or four…

So then round two, the two-double punch, was unleashed. H1N1 flu G4 strain (Death by diarrhea virus) July 2020. It’s an extremely dangerous, lethal and contagious swine flu that was adapted to kill humans.

And yet again…

… the CIA assets dutifully handed over the vials to the PLA.

And China took action. China started to perform the “famous” anal swabs for testing for the three viral agents, and the American press is aghast as to why would China dare do this for a simple “flu like” virus.

Ah. The ignorance of the manipulated American sheeple.

But China handling three bio-weapons strains and interrogating the CIA assets inside of China did not go down well in Washington. As soon as it was discovered that the Chinese (and Russian) leadership were aware of what was going on…

… Trump went into a secure bunker immediately and set the USA on DEFCON ONE.

But nothing happened, and three days later, in October 2020 he exited. With a remarkable “cure”. In which case he was miraculously cured in three days.  And the media was all aghast at how amazing the President was to get cured so quickly.

Ah. American sheeple. Kept as clueless as ever.

Now, of course, none of this is reported in the “news”. At least not in context. It’s just random noise with no contextual meaning or connections.

So a Carrier Battle Group set sail for China

But you know, the morons in Washington DC, and Jesus H. Christ, they must be morons…

…decided to go ahead with that eight carrier flotilla to the South China Sea.

And the result of it has not been reported in the Western press. Still giving the idea of the American invincibility on the high seas.

Ah. American media is the "window to the world" as described by Washington DC.

Such a pity.

As well as the absolute fiasco that occurred with the Trump eight carrier invasion force that steamed home with it’s tail between it’s legs after confronting China in the South China Sea. Read about it HERE.

This is only the tip of the iceberg

As well as a number of other events that I will not go into detail about. Anyways, all of this pretty much tells me that a hot “shooting” war between China and the USA started in 2020.

Both American and Chinese people have died as a result of it.

The showdown.

And the policy positions of the two belligerents were put on the table for the entire world to see in the meeting on March 2021 in Anchorage, Alaska. And that meeting told the world that war was on-going.

Sure, there were other elements of conflict.

We have the eight viral strains designed to cause starvation inside of China that were propagated by drones. We had the color revolutions in Hong Kong. We had the positioning and build up for action “to save the Uighur Muslims” in Xinjiang, and the efforts to make Taiwan a United States protectorate.

But none of those events involved military forces.

American military were used to hurt China on Chinese soil

The American military forces started using their skills to kill, destroy and create havoc in 2020. In fact, it was precisely American military “boots on the ground” in China, at Wuhan that kicked off the first wave of biological warfare.

And the only reason that it did not erupt into World War III is because of the calm composure of China in the face of the moronic instability of the United States leadership.

But don’t relax yet.

Let’s not forget these words…

The next Fourth Turning could mark the end of man.  It could be an omnicidal armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing.  If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly. 

So with that being said, let’s look at the timing.

The date of 2020 is the Strauss and Howe initial target date for the Climax of the Fourth Turning. But the Crisis Catalyst was supposed to occur in 2005 to have a Climax in 2020.

I have previously argued that since the Crisis Catalyst occurred three years later in 2008, it would launch a Climax in 2023. Now I am not so sure.

I am starting to believe that the Climax hit as planned on 2020. And as a result we are seeing the Strauss and Howe “textbook” results of that Climax.

The only difference is that it is not being reported at all in the American media. Which is surreal, in all the previous Fourth Turning events, the issues were always reported. But the United States is so absolutely fucked up today, that no one really knows anything, and the amount of crime, corruption and sheer incompetence is mind boggling.

So, with all that being said, let’s make it official…

The Fourth Turning Climax hit in 2020

And the next three years to five years will determine the followup events that the crisis started.

Historically, the Crisis would always set the pace of the resulting changes that would follow in the subsequent decades. And there are so many aspects and issues going on that it is difficult to anticipate what to expect.

What can we look forward to?

[1] It could go really, really, REALLY bad…

And when I mean BAD, I mean Baaaaaaaad!

The next Fourth Turning could mark the end of man.  

It could be an omnicidal armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing.  If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly.  

But this end, while possible, is not likely.  

Human life is not so easily extinguishable.  

One conceit of linear thinking is the confidence that we possess such godlike power that—at the mere push of a button—we can obliterate nature, destroy our own seed, and make ourselves the final generations of our species.  

Civilized (post-Neolithic) man has endured some 500 generations, prehistoric (fire-using) man perhaps 5,000 generations, Homo Erectus ten times that.  

For the next Fourth Turning to put an end to all this would require an extremely unlikely blend of social disaster, human malevolence, technological perfection, and bad luck.  

Only the worst pessimist can imagine that.

[2] It could change the way the world works.

And if the United States keeps on bearing down and pushing the combined nations of Russia/China/Iran you can well expect to see this…

The Fourth Turning could mark the end of modernity.  

The Western saecular rhythm—which began in the mid-fifteenth century with the Renaissance—could come to an abrupt terminus.  The seventh modern saeculum would be the last.  

This too could come from total war, terrible but not final.  

There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society.  

The “Western Civilization” of Toynbee and the “Faustian Culture” of Spengler would come to the inexorable close their prophesiers foresaw.  

A new dark ages would settle in, until some new civilization could be cobbled together from the ruins.  

The cycle of generations would also end, replaced by an ancient cycle of tradition (and fixed social roles for each phase of life) that would not allow progress.  

As with an omnicide, such a dire result would probably happen only when a dominant nation (like today’s America) lets a Fourth Turning ekpyrosis engulf the planet.  

But this outcome is well within the reach of foreseeable technology and malevolence.

[3] It could end the USA, but spare the rest of the world.

Which seems to be what the entire globe is hoping for. Few people outside of Washington DC wants America to continue being what it is. That includes most Americans. America is not “balkanized” for nothing. Most people want this “nightmare” to end.

The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation.  

It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify.  

This nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, Etruria ten, the Soviet Union (perhaps) only one.  

Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival.  

Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: 

In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a threat in more than one battle.  

In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most horrible war in history.  

In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed.  

In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.

...

The new saeculum could find America a worse place.  

As Paul Kennedy has warned, it might no longer be a “great power.”  

Its global stature might be eclipsed by foreign rivals.  

Its geography might be smaller, its culture less dominant, its military less effective, its government less democratic, its Constitution less inspiring.  

Emerging from its millennial chrysalis, it might evoke nothing like the hope and respect of its “American Century” forbear.  

Abroad, people of goodwill and civilized taste might perceive this society as a newly dangerous place.  

Or they might see it as decayed, antiquated, an Old New World less central to human progress than we now are.  

All this is plausible, and possible, in the natural turning of saecular time.

The items highlighted in BROWN have already happened.

[4] Or, it could just be a “place holder” in the grand scheme of things.

The aggressive elements inside of Washington DC might retreat, and the same-old would continue in the same-old “well worn” pathways.

Or the Fourth Turning could simply mark the end of the Millennial Saeculum.  

Mankind, modernity, and America would all persevere.  

Afterward, there would be a new mood, a new High, and a new saeculum.  America would be reborn.  But, reborn, it would not be the same.

[5] Or,alternatively, things could end up being very, very good.

Alternatively, the new saeculum could find America, and the world, a much better place.  

Like England in the Reformation Saeculum, the Superpower America of the Millennial Saeculum might merely be a prelude to a higher plane of civilization.  

Its new civic life might more nearly resemble that “shining city on a hill” to which its colonial ancestors aspired.  

Its ecology might be freshly repaired and newly sustainable, its economy rejuvenated, its politics functional and fair, its media elevated in tone, its culture creative and uplifting, its gender and race relations improved, its commonalities embraced and differences accepted, its institutions free of the corruptions that today seem entrenched beyond correction.  

People might enjoy new realms of personal, family, community, and national fulfillment.  

America’s borders might be redrawn around an altered but more cogent geography of public community.  

Its influence on world peace could be more potent, on world culture more uplifting.  

All this is achievable as well.

But I strongly doubt that such a positive outcome is possible.

Conclusion

As I sit here in a hot May 2021, it appears that scenario number [3] (above) is the most likely scenario.

With the option scenario number [2] (above) still possible.

We can only wait and see.

And these are my thoughts on this matter. If you feel otherwise, you are welcome to posit which of the five scenarios that you believe is possible. But for now, I am strongly placing my bets on scenario number [3].

Do you want more?

You can find more articles related to this in my latest index; A New Beginning. And in it are elements of the old, some elements regarding the transition, and some elements that look towards the future.

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