It is the western media which is blaming them for everything that goes wrong on our planet.

You must remember that in the US, the for-profit corporate media is owned by only six corporations, and they are dependent on several major advertisers for most of their income. These advertisers are all American, and they want to weave a narrative about the US and the world which they and the American government can support:

• “America is the greatest country in the world, and you should be proud to live in it because you have freedom and democracy!”
• “Freedom and democracy are under threat in the rest of the world from Russia and China who want to spread dictatorships all over the world, and are against everything Americans stand for!”
• “You must support everything the US stands for without question because if you don’t, you are a bad person who supports Russia and China and what they are trying to do!”
• “Don’t ask any awkward questions. We have told you everything you need to know, so just shut up!”

Now, these corporate media types hang out with their billionaire globalist buddies and their government minions at Davos and other venues, where they make deals and pat each other on the back about what a good job the West is doing running the world.

Or was doing running the world because things are going pear-shaped pretty fast in 2022.

So the problem is that while most Americans and Europeans have no trouble buying into this narrative, many other countries are not. Example: Many governments are not supporting or enforcing the Western sanctions against Russia. Some of them are significant countries like China, Indonesia, India, Brazil, Argentina and Saudi Arabia.

They have decided to stay neutral over the Ukraine matter and continue to do business with Russia while most of NATO Europe does not do business with Russia.

This should make you, dear reader, ask the question “Why am I getting such a different view of Russia in the west from those other countries and governments?”

The answer is simple: Those countries do not rely only on the Western media to tell them what to think. In those countries, their governments usually have control of the media, not private for-profit media corporations. Their governments want their people to have a very different worldview than what Americans have.

So, instead of seeing Russia and China as nation-states which do not deserve to exist, they see Russia and China as having governments which are no longer content to have the west dictate the terms of world affairs unilaterally.

Which is why Russia and China founded BRICS. They have now positioned BRICS as an alternative to G7 and are asking other nations which share their views to join it.

That is what is going on.

I remember my first night before battle.

The Croats in Bosnia had assembled almost 20.000 troops, which was about half their army, to make a decisive attack against the positions of the Bosnian army. My unit was right in the middle. Preparations had already started days before the attack. Nobody told us that there would be an attack, but this wasn’t necessary, we saw the signs everywhere.

At first a reconnaissance unit from Croatia came to our base and started to observe the territory with some big binoculars. The next day some high ranking officers arrived and were discussing their plans over maps and aerial fotos.

Two days before day zero a mortar unit set up a dozen of 82 mm mortars in our backyard. And finally, when there was only one day to go, a complete mechanized infantry brigade from Croatia arrived. As my unit was our brigade’s intervention unit, the freshly arrived Croats sent their intervention unit to join us. We would attack together with them.

It was all very busy and crowded at our camp during these days. People coming and going. Trucks bringing ammunitions and weapons.

Finally all preparations came to an end and the support and logistics troops left us in the afternoon. Dusk settled in and everybody knew that the next morning would be the day. Some alcohol was served and we were reminded not to drink too much of it. One of my comrades didn’t listen and passed out somewhere. Another one started vomiting, not from the alcohol, but from stress and anxiety.

Most soldiers were busy preparing their gear, cleaning their rifles and getting ammo for their guns.

Around midnight a blue cotton ribbon was given to each soldier. We were told to put them on our uniforms to easily recognize each other as friendly troops. This was necessary as our enemy had very similar uniforms to ours.

After midnight an eerie quiet settled in. All weapons were cleaned, checked and double checked. Everybody was prepared and there was nothing left to do then wait. You can clean your weapon only that many times and puke your guts out only once.

In these last moments most soldiers preferred not to talk to each other, but to stay for themselves. I saw some of them praying. Others tried to sleep, but most of us were just laying down on our flak jackets, staring holes into the night sky and smoking one cigarette after another.

This moment reminded me of all the soldiers and armies in history who found themselves in the same situation. From ancient Germanic tribes , the French in Dien Bien Phu to our own enemy who was just a couple of hundred meters away. They must have felt the same thing. Being part of a big army going into combat you feel big and tiny at the same time. Fate is out of your hands and you can just hope and pray that tomorrow at the same time you will still be alive. You look around and watch your comrades. To see how they cope and to remember their faces. Some of them won’t come back.

My squad leader interrupted my thinking. We were called to pick up our gear and to advance to our starting positions. As our base was practically in the center of the attack, we just had to sit there and watch the other units to leave, wondering what will happen to them.

Then came our turn. We walked a few meters to our trenches to await the final signal for the attack from there. It was now absolutely quiet and dark. No talk, no cigarettes. Everybody’s eyes were directed towards enemy territory.

Then a small “blop” sound behind us, seconds later a sound over our heads, like a gush of wind or a swarm of wild geese flying over us and finally a big explosion in front of us, right in the middle of the enemy’s positions.

The waiting was over and the game was on…

What happened next?

We left the trench in small groups of five or six soldiers. I was the last soldier to get out. This was my first “big” battle and I decided to take it slowly. We were walking in single file, because the first soldier had to keep us clear of the mines. We had mined the whole area around our base just a couple of weeks before and although nobody had made any maps that could show us where the mines were, the guy we had put to walk in front had a good memory and knew which places to avoid.

Our own artillery now started a massive barrage. As we advanced so did our artillery fire, constantly hitting targets about two or three hundred meters in front of us.

After about two hundred meters we came to the first buildings of an enemy village. There was nobody there. We had expected some resistance, but not a single shot was fired at us. There were not even the unavoidable dogs around to bark at us. The village was totally dead, so we thought. We slowly passed through it and nothing happened.

Behind the village were several railroad tracks. We were about to enter a big industrial area. In the upcoming light of dawn I could make out warehouses, an oil refinery with several huge oil storage tanks and a lot of smaller buildings, like pump stations and office buildings. There were plenty of railroad tracks going in every direction and on them were dozens of railroad wagons of all kinds.

While we navigated ourselves towards the oil refinery a bullet zipped over our heads. Used to getting shot at we continued our way without even looking up. After a minute a second bullet hit a nearby railway wagon. The more we approached the refinery the more shots were fired at us. They seemed to come from all directions, even from the village that we had left behind. Every time a bullet hit a railway car it was ricocheting from the metal surface with a nasty “pling” sound. From somewhere somebody with a megaphone started yelling : Allah u Akhbar! “

We ran the last meters to the refinery. The bullets were now raining at us. We hunkered down in a trench near a giant oil storage tank which luckily seemed to be empty. Every time a bullet hit this storage tank it made a resonating sound like a drum. Soon it was like a thousand drums were playing all at once.

Now the first enemy grenades were hitting nearby. Mortar and RPG grenades, which could be fired only from a close distance. Although by now we had complete daylight, we still couldn’t figure out from where the enemy was shooting at us. We encountered another small group from our unit nearby. They had made out an enemy position at the far end of the refinery and decided to attack it. I saw one of the guys fixing his bayonet to his AK rifle. Then they disappeared. We also decided to move, but in another direction, towards a big warehouse building next to the refinery.

The building was half empty and we used its cover to take a break from the bullets and grenades, smoke a cigarette and wait for orders coming over the radio. This was a warehouse from a tea factory: There were thousands of teabags everywhere around us: Chamomile tea. The smell of it became soon intolerable.

By listening to the radio communication we got a clearer image about what was going on : Obviously there were still enemy troops in the village we had marched through earlier on. They either hadn’t seen us when we sneaked through or they had decided to let us pass. Either way, the enemy was now between us and our base. They were in well camouflaged positions and we were an easy target for them. Furthermore, the group of soldiers we had encountered earlier on near the refinery was now in serious trouble and had suffered its first casualties.

We were ordered to retreat. Now we just had to find a way back. We decided to try our luck by following the railway line in one direction to get around the enemy village and then to cut through open ground and reach our own lines. This was easier said than done: We left the warehouse on the opposite side from where we’ve entered it and met two more groups of our unit. It seemed that by retreating from the enemy’s fire most of our unit had ended up right in this spot. We all took cover in a long trench which ran along the side of the building.

Now snipers were starting to aim at us while mortar and RPG grenades were hitting the trench. It was clear that if we would stay there any longer we would all be doomed.

The only way out was a small road, but there was absolutely no cover for at least 400 meters. We started to leave the trench in small groups of 2 or 3 while the remaining soldiers shot cover fire.

I was in the last group to leave. When I jumped out of the trench I ran over the first dead body just a couple of feet away. I ran maybe 10 meters before I fell to the ground and started crawling. There were bullets everywhere. A friend of mine crawled just in front of me and I saw how some tracer bullets were hitting the tarmac just inches away from him. Another soldier behind me got hit in the leg and started screaming.

We managed to crawl down the road until we were stopped by a big wire fence. It was too high to climb over it: All the soldiers who escaped the trench were piled up in front of this fence and were attracting enemy fire.

Finally we managed to cut through the wire of the fence by connecting an AK bayonet with its scabbard. This makes a perfect wire cutter. On the other side of the fence we continued crawling.

About 100 meters further down the road I reached the first of our own defense positions. I entered a small bunker, its floor was covered in blood. A wounded Croatian soldier was getting first aid there.

Meanwhile a Croatian T-55 tank was approaching to cover our retreat. Under its protection we started to evacuate some of the wounded soldiers along the road.

In the evening we took count: From 18 soldiers of our platoon six were killed during that day. Another two were missing. The next day we learned that they also got killed. The guy that I saw planting his bayonet on his AK was also dead. Another comrade was heavily injured by a head shot and died later in a hospital. Three days later two more soldiers of our platoon were killed when their car was hit by a mortar grenade.

The following week we buried our dead comrades. During one of the funerals we came under heavy artillery fire, but luckily nobody died.

And I don’t drink Chamomile tea anymore.

The Bombardier Beetle

Meet the Bombardier Beetle, named so because it expels from its rear a highly combustible spray. It only smokes visually at this scale,, but make no mistake this is deadly!

This weapon, which is primarily used for defense, as with everything in the insect world, can fry everything within range. Ants, worms, other beetles, a spider, it all gets burns. The spray reaches temperatures of up to 100 degrees Celsius, most of it vaporizes from the heat. This bug likes its food charbroiled, apparently.

A letter…

If You’re So Smart, Why Aren’t You Rich? Turns Out It’s Just Chance.

The most successful people are not the most talented, just the luckiest, a new computer model of wealth creation confirms. Taking that into account can maximize return on many kinds of investment.

The distribution of wealth follows a well-known pattern sometimes called an 80:20 rule: 80 percent of the wealth is owned by 20 percent of the people. Indeed, a report in 2017 concluded that just eight men had a total wealth equivalent to that of the world’s poorest 3.8 billion people.

This seems to occur in all societies at all scales. It is a well-studied pattern called a power law that crops up in a wide range of social phenomena. But the distribution of wealth is among the most controversial because of the issues it raises about fairness and merit. Why should so few people have so much wealth?

The conventional answer is that we live in a meritocracy in which people are rewarded for their talent, intelligence, effort, and so on. Over time, many people think, this translates into the wealth distribution that we observe, although a healthy dose of luck can play a role.

But there is a problem with this idea: while wealth distribution follows a power law, the distribution of human skills generally follows a normal distribution that is symmetric about an average value. For example, intelligence, as measured by IQ tests, follows this pattern. Average IQ is 100, but nobody has an IQ of 1,000 or 10,000.

The same is true of effort, as measured by hours worked. Some people work more hours than average and some work less, but nobody works a billion times more hours than anybody else.

And yet when it comes to the rewards for this work, some people do have billions of times more wealth than other people. What’s more, numerous studies have shown that the wealthiest people are generally not the most talented by other measures.

What factors, then, determine how individuals become wealthy? Could it be that chance plays a bigger role than anybody expected? And how can these factors, whatever they are, be exploited to make the world a better and fairer place?

We finally get an answer thanks to the work of Alessandro Pluchino at the University of Catania in Italy and a couple of colleagues. These guys have created a computer model of human talent and the way people use it to exploit opportunities in life. The model allows the team to study the role of chance in this process.

The results are something of an eye-opener. Their simulations accurately reproduce the wealth distribution in the real world. But the wealthiest individuals are not the most talented (although they must have a certain level of talent). They are the luckiest. And this has significant implications for the way societies can optimize the returns they get for investments in everything from business to science.

Pluchino and co’s model is straightforward. It consists of N people, each with a certain level of talent (skill, intelligence, ability, and so on). This talent is distributed normally around some average level, with some standard deviation. So some people are more talented than average and some are less so, but nobody is orders of magnitude more talented than anybody else.

This is the same kind of distribution seen for various human skills, or even characteristics like height or weight. Some people are taller or smaller than average, but nobody is the size of an ant or a skyscraper. Indeed, we are all quite similar.

The computer model charts each individual through a working life of 40 years. During this time, the individuals experience lucky events that they can exploit to increase their wealth if they are talented enough.

However, they also experience unlucky events that reduce their wealth. These events occur at random.

At the end of the 40 years, Pluchino and co rank the individuals by wealth and study the characteristics of the most successful. They also calculate the wealth distribution. They then repeat the simulation many times to check the robustness of the outcome.

When the team rank individuals by wealth, the distribution is exactly like that seen in real-world societies. “The ‘80-20’ rule is respected, since 80 percent of the population owns only 20 percent of the total capital, while the remaining 20 percent owns 80 percent of the same capital,” report Pluchino and co.

That may not be surprising or unfair if the wealthiest 20 percent turn out to be the most talented. But that isn’t what happens. The wealthiest individuals are typically not the most talented or anywhere near it. “The maximum success never coincides with the maximum talent, and vice-versa,” say the researchers.

So if not talent, what other factor causes this skewed wealth distribution? “Our simulation clearly shows that such a factor is just pure luck,” say Pluchino and co.

The team shows this by ranking individuals according to the number of lucky and unlucky events they experience throughout their 40-year careers. “It is evident that the most successful individuals are also the luckiest ones,” they say. “And the less successful individuals are also the unluckiest ones.”

That has significant implications for society. What is the most effective strategy for exploiting the role luck plays in success?

Pluchino and co study this from the point of view of science research funding, an issue clearly close to their hearts. Funding agencies the world over are interested in maximizing their return on investment in the scientific world. Indeed, the European Research Council invested $1.7 million in a program to study serendipity—the role of luck in scientific discovery—and how it can be exploited to improve funding outcomes.

It turns out that Pluchino and co are well set to answer this question. They use their model to explore different kinds of funding models to see which produce the best returns when luck is taken into account.

The team studied three models, in which research funding is distributed equally to all scientists; distributed randomly to a subset of scientists; or given preferentially to those who have been most successful in the past. Which of these is the best strategy?

The strategy that delivers the best returns, it turns out, is to divide the funding equally among all researchers. And the second- and third-best strategies involve distributing it at random to 10 or 20 percent of scientists.

In these cases, the researchers are best able to take advantage of the serendipitous discoveries they make from time to time. In hindsight, it is obvious that the fact a scientist has made an important chance discovery in the past does not mean he or she is more likely to make one in the future.

A similar approach could also be applied to investment in other kinds of enterprises, such as small or large businesses, tech startups, education that increases talent, or even the creation of random lucky events.

Clearly, more work is needed here. What are we waiting for?

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1802.07068 : Talent vs. Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure

Noteworthy “news”

What happened after the death of Caeser

The Most Amazing Lasagna

This is a great video. Inspirational!

Emperor Honorius was an idiot

Honorius was one of the last “major” emperors of the Western Roman Empire. He ruled for a long time from 393 – 423, which is much longer than the average 7 years emperors reigned for.

He oversaw the collapse of his Empire. He witnessed it slowly decline into a failed shell of its former self. Worse yet – he did nothing to stop it.

Flavius Stilicho was the last great Roman leader (or one of the last). He was a brilliant general who saved Italy 2 times at least. He personally saved Honorius twice and negotiated a decades-long peace with the Sassanid Persians.

Stilicho really tried to save the empire. He wasn’t out for wealth or fame – he just really wanted to save Rome. He had limited resources, limited time, and was one of the only capable men in all of the Empire. Yet again and again he desperately tried to save the empire.

Whenever things seemed doomed, when armies were at the gates of the capital, Stilicho would raise an army, taking garrisons where he could and hiring barbarians to serve him and rush down to save Italy.

Alaric – the man who sacked Rome and one of the most brilliant generals of the age – was defeated by Stilicho twice.

As stated, Honorius was an idiot and a child. He allowed everyone to manipulate him and cared nothing for Rome so long as he got to live in luxury. Luckily for Rome, Stilicho dominated him and was the de facto ruler of the empire.

Eventually, Stilicho found himself in a hard space. He relied on barbarians to fill the ranks of his army. The Senate and Nobles hated this, but he couldn’t do anything else as they refused to allow Stilicho to recruit from their estates.

Stilicho wanted to eventually reunite East and West, but for now, he wanted Illyria back, hoping to use it as recruitment grounds. Illyria meanwhile was in the hands of the Eastern Roman Empire and Emperor Arcadius (Honorius’s just-as-stupid brother) refused to give it back.

When Arcadius died, Stilicho had a choice. He could go down to Constantinople and influence the process of crowning a new emperor. Maybe he could get Illyria back and help unite East and West. But by doing so he would be leaving Italy and Honorius would be alone – surrounded by Stilicho’s enemies. What if they turned Honorius against him?

Stilicho chose to head to Constantinople and press Honorius’s claims. It was just too good of an opportunity to pass up.

Before he even left the Western Empire, Honorius fell under the sway of Olympius – an anti-barbarian racist who hated Stilicho. Olympius turned Honorius against Stilicho with ease and that was it.

Stilicho’s army revolted against him. His loyal officers were executed along with their families, and the Roman elements turned against their general. Stilicho heard and turned back. He was hoping to get a chance to speak with Honorius and fix this. He knew the risk but made for Ravenna anyway. Soon he was found and captured at a church by Honorius’s men.

He was taken away to be executed. When his bodyguards protested, Stilicho waved them off and allowed himself to be executed. In the end, he knew that a civil war would cost the empire too dearly and so he allowed himself to be killed.

A true man of Rome until the end. He was 10 times the man that ruled over the Western Roman Empire and had Stilicho been serving a capable emperor maybe the empire could have been saved.

With Stilicho gone, Rome lost maybe its last real hope of survival. Even with Stilicho alive the odds of Rome surviving were practically 0. However with Stilicho gone, everything came crashing down around the empty uncaring head of Honorius.

I guess nobody realized exactly how much of the Empire Stilicho was alone holding together. They soon would.

Bear with me a moment – this all comes full circle.

You see Rome at this time faced 3 really serious issues:

1. Millions of barbarians pouring into the Empire. They had all been displaced by the Huns
2. No money to raise a large army to resist this migration
3. No recruits to fill the ranks even if they had enough money

This is what Stilicho was dealing with as well.

In response, Rome had a decent idea. They gave the barbarians pieces of the Empire under the condition they fight for Rome. This could have worked too. Rome’s great strength was their ability to assimilate new peoples into the Empire. After all, they had been doing it for 1000 years well enough.

In fact, the Roman Republic had a similar set up in Italy. They left everyone their independence if they just sent men to fight.

With this move, Rome hoped to bolster its ranks for cheap while also keeping the barbarian on their side. It’s actually not a bad idea at all and may have worked.

So where does Stilicho fit in?

Well, Stilicho was not a Roman or at least not ethnically. He was half Vandal, which made him almost a barbarian in the eyes of the Romans.

But for Stilicho, this was an advantage. He was able to easily work with the Goths and Vandals and Franks, because in a way he was one of them. He wasn’t some uppity Italian Noble looking down his nose at everyone – he was one of the boys.

In a way, this made Stilicho the symbol of this new Roman world. He was a Roman by choice – a full-blooded die-hard Roman that really believed in the Empire and the eternal city. But he was also a barbarian. He should have been a symbol of the future – but it was never so.

Stilicho thus carefully cultivated a large army of barbarian auxiliaries to reinforce his dwindling numbers.

Over the decades, this army became rather formidable. It was an army that tasted victory after victory and never knew defeat. It was an army of veterans led by a brilliant tactician – it was exactly what Rome needed.

When anti-barbarian racist Olympius took over as Honorius’s new master, he basically sent these barbarians packing. Just like that, the veteran backbone of the Roman army was gone. Worse yet – this hardened army of veterans was now hungry, far from home, and a bit angry.

Naturally, Alaric was there to take them in. Suddenly Alaric went from recently defeated and on the ropes – to flush with hardened warriors. Just as suddenly Rome had no army and no good generals.

I’m sure this won’t lead to a legendary sack of a famous city or anything.

Speaking of sacking and cities, let’s talk about another stupid thing Honorius did.

So Alaric is looking good. The only man who could ever stop him, Stilicho, is dead. Even better, Stilicho’s army is now his army. So Alaric decides he is going to make a move for power.

Alaric invades Italy and Rome has literally no army to do anything about it. Alaric doesn’t want to conquer Italy though. He just wants to blockade Rome, have the Senate pay him off, and leave.

The Senate pays him and he honors his deal and leaves Rome. He then heads up to Ravenna to meet with Honorius and negotiate a long term peace deal.

Alaric makes the following demands

1. A spot as a Roman general
2. A yearly stipend of gold for his people
3. Grain shipments to keep his people fed
4. Land in Illyria and independence

The Senate comes up from Rome to meet with Honorius. They tell him to take the deal – Alaric is strong and there is nothing they can do.

Honorius agrees to everything except making Alaric a general.

Alaric then changes his tune. He suddenly drops all his demands. He simply demands land along the Danube and regular food shipments and in exchange, he would defend the Roman border.

We need to stop here and talk about this. Alaric has an army – the ONLY army in the area. Rome can literally do nothing to stop him. All he wants is some food and useless land along the Danube river and in return, he is willing to defend the Roman border from the coming barbarian hordes. This is an amazing deal. This is like someone holding a gun to your head and demanding you take their cash.

A lot of historians question why Alaric offered this deal. Most, including myself, think that he was planning ahead. He knew Rome was 1 good emperor away from being on top of the world and that he was positioning himself as a friend of Rome when that day came.

Either way, it doesn’t matter, because Honorius is an idiot.

HE TURNED DOWN THE DEAL AND BROKE OFF NEGOTIATIONS.

(Yeah. No shit!)

Alaric then sacked Rome……

Rome, the eternal city, a city that had not been taken for 800 years was sacked. 800 years…. think about that. The USA is 250 years old. So go way back to George Washington, then do that 3 times. That’s how long Rome remained safe.

This was really the true ending of Rome.

From here, the barbarians would continue to sack Rome. They made a few efforts to stay alive, but they lacked the funds, manpower, and resources to do anything at all.

Imagine how much a skilled general like Alaric with 40,000 veteran soldiers could have helped turn things around. And again – they were doing it for free.

So no matter how dumb you are, you will NEVER be as dumb as Honorius.

To be clear he

1. Killed the best general Rome had seen in perhaps a century
2. Then allowed his only decent army to go over to his enemies’ side
3. When his enemy offered to fight for him he REFUSED
4. He allowed Rome to be sacked

I mean if you tried to suck at life you still couldn’t be this bad.

EDIT: I am deleting comments about Trump. This question and answer couldn’t have less to do with Trump. No – Honorius is not Donald Trump. Honorius was a child that watched his empire burn while feeding chickens.