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Like, well for instance, the kinds of books that are being published these days inside of America.
How and why do you think the United States is spending trillions of dollars it does not have, on trivialities such as social re-engineering, and wars in foreign lands? It’s because the USA has forced the world to conduct international trade using American and European banks. This system of banks is known as SWIFT and is the root behind all the trouble and problems plaguing the world today.
The system takes a million tiny bites out of every financial transaction in the world, and that money is used to finance the enormous American economy, and mindless, and uncontrolled spending.
Well, guess what?
Yep. This dominance of SWIFT is coming to an end. And the rest of the world is eagerly looking forward to it happening. And with it, will be the harsh slap of reality when the ACTUAL value, and the actual worth of American money settles in place.
Some predict a catastrophic collapse.
I don’t.
Instead, I see a swift contraction of all things financial, and the economy will follow suit. If it is managed by a talented and alert bureaucracy, then it will be managed well. Otherwise, it will be a frightening time, and a time where the most unreasonable notions will enter the minds of the American leadership.
But first, let’s review…
[1] America has no REAL democracy
It is instead an oligarchy of selfish and evil corporations that use the American people as cattle to serve them. video 9MB
[2] America Believes that it owns 1/3 of the world
The facts speak for you cannot deny this truth, and the rest of the world is mighty pissed off about it. video 8MB
[3] America is a Military Empire where war is an every-day event
And that might be just fine for blowing up mud huts, and strafing goats and sheep, but it’s really dangerous when the USA tries to bully the BIG players. And that is exactly what is going on. Not only with military threat but hybrid-war at all levels. This is pissing them off to no end. video 8MB
[4] Everyone is suffering because of these facts.
Maybe the ultra-rich are happy, and their enablers are, but the rest of the world is hurting, and it is manifesting in horrible scenes throughout the United States. video 6MB
[5] The wealthy has sucked America bone dry.
How can a nation that is willing to spend trillions of dollars destroying other nations cannot provide food, shelter and health care for it’s own citizens? What is wrong with the system? Because it is broken very, very badly. It is NOT worthy of saving. video 4.7MB
Let’s talk about changing the system…
Well, the wealthy oligarchy in America doesn’t want to change. So “outsiders” will need to force the changes themselves. Thus this…
Washington hawks float expelling Russia from SWIFT but Moscow’s budding geo-economic alliance with Beijing will keep the money flowing
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin spent an hour and 14 minutes in a video conversation on Wednesday. Geopolitically, paving the way for 2022, this is the one that really matters – much more than Putin-Biden a week ago.
Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov, who generally carefully measures his words, had previously hinted that this exchange would be “extremely important.”
It was obvious the two leaders would not only exchange information about the natural gas pipeline Power of Siberia 2. But Peskov was referring to prime time geopolitics: how Russia-China would be coordinating their countercoups against the hybrid war/Cold War 2.0 combo deployed by the US and its allies.
While no substantial leaks were expected from the 37th meeting between Xi and Putin since 2013 (they will meet again in person in February 2022, at the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics), Assistant to the President for Foreign Policy Yuri Ushakov did manage to succinctly deliver at least two serious bits of information.
These are the highlights of the call:
Moscow will inform Beijing about the progress, or lack thereof, in negotiations with the US/NATO on security guarantees for Russia.
Beijing supports Moscow’s demands on US/NATO for these security guarantees.
Putin and Xi agreed to create an “independent financial structure for trade operations that could not be influenced by other countries.” Diplomatic sources, off the record, say the structure may be announced by a joint summit in late 2022.
They discussed the Biden-hosted “Summit for Democracy,” concluding it was counterproductive and imposed new dividing lines.
Of all of the above, the third point is the real game-changer – already in the works for a few years now, and gaining definitive momentum after Washington hawks of the Victoria “F**k the EU” Nuland kind recently floated the idea of expelling Russia from SWIFT – the vast messaging network used by banks and other financial institutions to make money transfer instructions – as the ultimate sanctions package for the non-invasion of Ukraine.
Putin and Xi once again discussed one of their key themes in bilaterals and BRICS meetings: the need to keep increasing the share of the yuan and ruble in mutual settlements – bypassing the US dollar – and opening new stock market avenues for Russian and Chinese investors.
Bypassing a SWIFT mechanism “influenced by third counties” then becomes a must. Ushakov diplomatically put it as “the need to intensify efforts to form an independent financial infrastructure to service trade operations between Russia and China.”
Russian energy businesses, from Gazprom to Rosneft, know all there is to know not only about US threats but also about the negative effects of the tsunami of US dollars flooding the global economy via the Fed’s quantitative easing.
This Russia-China drive is yet another dimension of geoeconomic, geostrategic and demographic power rapidly shifting towards Eurasia and possibly foreshadowing the advent of a new world system related to other matters Putin-Xi certainly discussed: the interconnection of Belt and Road with the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), the expanded reach of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the coming Chinese presidency of BRICS in 2022.
The US – with US$30 trillion in debt, 236% of its militarized GDP – is virtually bankrupt. Russia-China have already experimented with their alternative payment systems, which will inevitably integrate.
The most important banks in both countries will adopt the system – as well as banks across Eurasia doing business with them, and then vast swaths of the Global South. SWIFT, in the long run, will be used only in exceptional cases if China and Russia have their way.
Maidan redux
Now to the heart of the geopolitical puzzle.
Ushakov confirmed that the Russian Federation has submitted proposals on security guarantees to the US. As Putin himself had confirmed even before talking to Xi, it’s all about “indivisible security”: a mechanism that has been enshrined all across the territory of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe since a 1975 summit in Helsinki.
Predictably, under orders of the powers that be, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg already rejected it.
Both Xi and Putin clearly identify how Team Biden is deploying a strategic polarization gambit under good old divide-and-rule. The wishful thinking at play is to build a pro-American bloc – with participants ranging from the UK and Australia to Israel and Saudi Arabia – to “isolate” Russia-China.
That’s what’s behind the narrative thunderously splashed non-stop all across the West – to which Biden’s Summit for Democracy was also tied. Taiwan is being manipulated against Beijing while Ukraine is being literally weaponized against Russia. “China aggression” meets “Russian aggression.”
Beijing has not fallen into the trap but has asserted at different levels that Taiwan will eventually be integrated into the mainland motherland, without any ludicrous “invasion.” And the wishful thinking that massive American pressure will lead to cracks inside the Chinese Communist Party is also likely generating zero traction.
Ukraine is a much more volatile proposition: a dysfunctional nightmare of systemic instability, widespread corruption, shady oligarchic entanglements and poverty.
Washington still follows the Zbigniew Brzezinski-concocted Maidan plan laid out for cookie distributor Nuland in 2014. Yet seven years later, no American “strategist” managed to understand why Russia would fail to invade Ukraine, which has been part of Russia for centuries.
For these “strategists”, it’s imperative that Russia faces a second Vietnam, after Afghanistan in the 1980s. Well, it’s not going to happen because Moscow has no interest whatsoever in “invading” Ukraine.
It does get more complicated. The ultimate fear dictating all US foreign policy since the early 20th century is the possibility of Germany clinching a new version of Bismarck’s 1887 Reinsurance Treaty with Russia.
Add China to the combination and these three actors are able to control just about the entire Eurasian landmass. Updating Mackinder, the US would then be turned into a geopolitically irrelevant island.
Putin-Xi may have examined not only how the imperial hybrid war tactics against them are floundering against them, as well as how the tactics are dragging Europe further into the abyss of irrelevance.
“The EU has virtually ruptured its relations with both Russia and China – at the same time. Washington’s hawks wanted it. A ‘European Brzezinski’ certainly would have advised the EU differently: never lose both in tandem – you are never that powerful.”
No wonder the leadership in Moscow-Beijing can’t take anyone in Brussels seriously – be it assorted NATO chihuahuas or the spectacularly incompetent Ursula von der Leyen at the European Commission.
A faint ray of light is that Paris and Berlin, unlike the Russophobic Poland and the Baltic fringe, at least prefer having some sort of negotiation with Moscow over Ukraine as opposed to slapping on extra sanctions.
Now imagine Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov explaining the ABCs of foreign policy to a clueless Annalena “Grune” Baerbock, now posing as German foreign minister while displaying a fresh mix of incompetence and aggressiveness. She actually placed the phone call.
Lavrov had to meticulously explain the consequences of NATO expansion; the Minsk agreement; and how Berlin should exercise its right to pressure Kiev to respect Minsk.
No leaks about it should be expected from Ushakov. But it’s fair to imagine that with “partners” like the US, NATO and the EU, Xi and Putin should conclude that China and Russia don’t even need enemies.
Big Big News
Next up is a second (!) excellent piece by Pepe Escobar giving details on the close collaboration between the Russian SPFSand the Chinese CIPS. It spells the doom for SWIFT.
SPFS = System for Transfert of Financial Messaging
CIPS = Cross-border Interbank Payment System
Not to mention the global geopolitical and geo-economical consequences examined in Escobar’s article.
Just to remind some relevant key moments :
1996
The Shanghai 5 created to solve some border problems & working together against terrorism. President Jiang Zemin & President Boris Yeltsine decided for cooperation in the post-Soviet space. Sergey Primakov played a key role.
The five are : China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan.
2000
President Vladimir Vladimirovitch Putin began to rule Russia.
2001
Uzbekistan joined and the group got a new name : Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) I also called “Sovereigns’ Coalition Organization.” Then, September 11, 2001 : 9-11 (NYC) occurred.
December 11, 2001
China is accepted into the World Trade Organization (WTO).
2007
Putin’s historic speech in Munich on American and NATO’s meddlings.
2010-2015
The CIA network in China decapitated. The endeavor started during the last 2 years of President Hu Jintao (2002-2012) and completed under President Xi Jinping.
2012
Iran excluded from using SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications).
November 2012
President Xi Jinping began to rule China
2013
Xi & Putin began their friendship and fruitful collaboration. Between 2013 and the last virtual Summit on December 15, 2021, they met 37 times (an average of ~ 4 times a year). They will meet again in February 2022 at the beginning of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
End of 2013
The Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) announced by President Xi Jinping first in Astana (for the Eurasian Landbridge) and in Jakarta (for the Maritime Silk Roads)
Feb 2014
The Maidan color revolution in Ukraine. Return of Crimea to Russia just after the Sochi Olympic Games.
2014
Leviathanesque gas deal between China & Russia.
February 2015
Minsk Accords between Kiev & the autonomous Republics of Donetz & Luhansk
Russia signed too as a witness.
July 2015
JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) signed by Iran, the US, Russia, China, the UK, France. and Germany. Iran can then use again the SWIFT system.
June 2017
India & Pakistan welcomed together at the historic Astana Summit into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization aka the Sovereigns’ Coalition Organization (SCO).
2018
Iran excluded a second time from the SWIFT system.
March 1st, 2018
Vladimir Putin announced to the world the new Russian weapons, including hypersonic missiles. (Avangard, Kinzhal, Poseidon, Burevestnik, Sarmat, etc.). Nuclear parity is restored.
Putin:"They did not listen to us then. Listen up now !"
March 26, 2018
The Petro-yuan was created at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. It was a Monday.
October 1st, 2019
Celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.
January 7, 2020
Iranian General Qasem Soleimani murdered on January 7 by the US government.
2020
The Common Prosperity Initiative started in China. It is a concept created by His Excellency State Councillor Mr. Wang Huning, advisor to Presidents Jiang Zemin (1989-2002), Hu Jintao & Xi Jinping.
November 2020
The Chinese government announced the end of extreme poverty in China.
July 2021
Celebrations of the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China (CPC).
August 2021
China tested a hypersonic gliding vehicle.
August 15, 2021
Fall of Kabul. The invasion & occupation of Afghanistan by the US lasted practically 20 years. Named “Operation Enduring Freedom” started on October 7, 2001.
September 2021
Safe return to Earth of the 3 taikonauts after 3 months living in the Chinese Space Station Tian Gong (Heavenly Palace)
September 2021
Iran accepted as full member of the SCO at the historic Dushanbe Summit (Tajikistan).
October 2021
A second crew of 3 taikonauts reached the Chinese Space Station including the first Chinese female taikonauts Miss Wang. They should be back to Earth in April 2022.
December 2021 (second week)
Immensely fruitful Putin’s visit to India, concluding many deals with Modi,
contributing to Eurasian Integration.
December 15, 2021
During a virtual Summit (lasting one hour & fourteen minutes),, President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping agreed to establish a financial platform independent of SWIFT. They confirmed closer collaboration within the framework of the already solid Sino-Russian Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for a New Era.
THE SCO (WITH AT ITS CORE RUSSIA & CHINA) IS THE ONLY GROUP ON EARTH HAVING THE UNWAVERING INTENTION, THE DETERMINATION, THE RESOURCES, THE BRAINS, THE STAMINA, THE ORGANIZATIONAL SKILLS, THE PATIENCE, THE DIPLOMATIC NETWORK, THE WEAPONS AND THE QUALITY LEADERSHIP ENABLING THEM TO DEAL WITH THE EVIL & MADLY HUBRISTIC KFC-AZAEL (Kakistocratic Feudal Conglomerate of the Anglo-Zio-American EstabLishment) aka the PBGC (Psychopathic Barbarian Genocidal Crusaders) OR SIMPLY THE CRUSADERS.
In French, the KFC-AZAEL is called le CaCA. ("Kakistocratique" in French can also be written "Cacocratique"), hence le CaCA is for "le Caco-Conglomérat Anglo-Siono-Américain")
Putin and Xi plot their SWIFT escape
Russia and China’s announcement of an independent financial trading platform will free nations under US sanctions from western intrusion into their commercial activities.
Vladimir Putin got straight to the point. At the opening of his one hour and fourteen minute video conversation with Xi Jinping on 15 December, he described Russia-China relations as “an example of genuine inter-state cooperation in the 21st century.”
Their myriad levels of cooperation have been known for years now – from trade, oil and gas, finance, aerospace and the fight against Covid-19, to the progressive interconnection of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).
But now the stage was set for the announcement of a serious counter-move in their carefully coordinated ballet opposing the relentless Hybrid War/Cold War 2.0 combo deployed by Empire.
As Assistant to the President for Foreign Policy Yuri Ushakov succinctly explained, Putin and Xi agreed to create an “independent financial structure for trade operations that could not be influenced by other countries.”
Diplomatic sources, off the record, confirmed the structure may be announced by a joint summit before the end of 2022.
This is a stunning game-changer in more ways than one. It had been extensively discussed in previous bilaterals and in preparations for BRICS summits – mostly centered on increasing the share of yuan and rubles in Russia-China settlements, bypassing the US dollar, and opening new stock market options for Russian and Chinese investors.
Now we’ve come to the crunch. And the catalyzing event was none other than US hawks floating the – financially nuclear – idea of expelling Russia from SWIFT, the messaging network used by 11,000+ banks in over 200 countries, as well as financial institutions, for rapid money transfers worldwide.
Cutting off Russia from SWIFT would be part of a harsh new sanctions package developed in response to an ‘invasion’ of Ukraine that will never happen – mainly because the only ones praying for it are professional NATO warmongers.
Profiting from a strategic blunder
Once again, an American strategic blunder offers the Russia-China self-described “comprehensive strategic partnership” the chance to advance their coordination.
Ushakov put it very diplomatically: it’s time to bypass a SWIFT mechanism “influenced by third countries” to form “an independent financial structure.”
That amounts to a serious game-changer for the entire Global South – as scores of nations yearn to be released from a de facto US dollar dictatorship, complete with recurring Fed quantitative easing circus packages.
Russia and China have been experimenting with their alternative payment systems for quite a while now: the Russian SPFS (System for Transfer of Financial Messages) and the Chinese CIPS (Cross Border Interbank Payment System).
It won’t be easy, as the most powerful Chinese banks are deep into SWIFT and have expressed their reservations about SPFS. Yet, they will have to inevitably integrate prior to the launch of the new mechanism, possibly in late 2022.
Once the most important Russian and Chinese banks – from Sberbank to the Bank of China – adopt the system, the path opens for other banks across Eurasia and the Global South to join in.
In the long run, SWIFT, prone to non-stop American political interference, will be increasingly marginalized, or restricted to Atlanticist latitudes.
Bypassing the US dollar, on trade and all sorts of financial settlements, is an absolutely central plank of the ever-evolving Russia-China notion of a multipolar world.
The road will be long, of course, especially when it comes to offering a solid counterpoint to the US-controlled global financial system, a maze that includes the humongous investment houses of the BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street variety, with their interlocking shareholding of virtually every major multinational company.
Yet a SWIFT escape will rapidly gain momentum, because it is inextricably linked to a series of developments that Putin-Xi touched upon in their conversation, the most important of which are:
1. The progressive interconnection of BRI and EAEU, offering expanding roles to the BRICS-run New Development Bank (NDB) as well as the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
2. The increasing geopolitical and geo-economic reach of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), especially after the admission of Iran in October.
3. And crucially, the upcoming Chinese presidency of the BRICS in 2022.
China in 2022 will invest deeply in BRICS+. This expanded BRICS club will be linked to a development process that includes:
1. The consolidation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – a massive East Asia trade deal uniting China, the ASEAN 10 and Japan, and South Korea, as well as Australia and New Zealand.
2. The African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA).
3. And the memoranda of understanding signed between the EAEU and MERCOSUR and between the EAEU and ASEAN.
Anchoring West Asia
Yaroslav Lissovolik, one of the world’s leading experts on BRICS+, argues that it’s now time for BRICS+ 2.0, operating in a system that opens “the possibility for bilateral and plurilateral agreements to complement the core network of regional alliances formed by BRICS countries and their respective regional neighbors.”
So if we’re talking about a major qualitative jump in terms of economic development across the Global South, the question is inevitable. What about West Asia?
All these interconnections, plus an escape from SWIFT, will certainly profit the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), arguably the flagship BRI project, to which Beijing plans to annex Afghanistan.
CPEC will be progressively connected to the future Iran-China corridor via Afghanistan, part of the 20 year Iran-China strategic deal in which BRI projects will be prominently featured. Iran and China already trade in yuan and rials, so settlements between Iran and China in a non-SWIFT mechanism will be a given.
What happened to Iran is a classic example of SWIFT becoming hostage of imperial political manipulation. Iranian banks were expelled from SWIFT in 2012, because of pressure from the usual suspects. In 2016, access was restored as part of the JCPOA, clinched in 2015. Yet in 2018, under the Trump administration, Iran was once again cut off from SWIFT.
None of that will ever happen with Iran joining the new Russia-China mechanism.
And that leads us to the interconnection of China’s BRI expansion in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The reconstruction of Syria may be largely financed via the non-SWIFT mechanism. Same for China buying Iraqi energy. Same for the reconstruction of a Yemen possibly hosting a Chinese-owned port, part of the “string of pearls.”
Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Israel may remain in the US financial sphere of influence, or lack thereof. And even if there is no BRICS nation anchoring West Asia, and no regional integration economic agreement on the horizon, the role of the economic integrator is bound to be eventually played by China.
China will play a similar role to Brazil anchoring MERCOSUR, Russia anchoring the EAEU and South Africa anchoring the SADC/SACU.
Both BRI and the EAEU will get a tremendous boost by bypassing SWIFT. You simply can’t go multipolar if you trade using (devalued) imperial legal tender.
BRI, EAEU and those interlocking economic development agreements, combined with digital technology, will be integrating billions of people in the Global South.
Think of a possible, auspicious future spelling out cheap telecom delivering financial services and world market access, in a non-dollar environment, to all those who have been so far cut off from a truly globalized economy.
…
With that in mind, consider that the rest of the world is already moving away from the USD.
Iran to pay Chinese, Turkish builders in crude, minerals
Iran will pay builders from China and Turkey in crude or minerals rather than cash if they become involved in housing projects in the country, says a member of the country’s Supreme Housing Council.
Ahmad Donyamali said on Saturday that Iran is in talks with Chinese and Turkish construction companies to get them involved in a tiny segment of its massive project to build four million affordable houses in the country in the next four years.
However, Donyamali said that a main condition for working with those companies will be to avoid paying them in cash because of restrictions facing Iran in banking and crude export issues.
“In talks with foreign companies we are seriously discussing the oil barter mechanism and we have declared that the condition for partnership … is that we will not pay any cash,” the official was quoted as saying by semi-official ILNA news agency.
The comments are the latest to come from Iranian government officials about the need to use crude shipments to fund key projects or to pay for imports of basic goods into the country.
The oil barter mechanism has been highlighted as a major instrument to offset the impacts of American sanctions on Iran’s economy, especially since an administration came into office in August on promises that it will seek to neutralize the sanctions.
Donyamali said that Chinese or Turkish builders will have a small share of Iran’s affordable housing project, saying government’s policy will be to award around 90% of the contracts to Iranian companies despite their more expensive bids.
He said paying foreign builders in crude or minerals shipments was not yet final, saying main government departments have to reach a decision on the issue.
Conclusion
2022.
China and Russia will start performing monetary transactions using their SEO based systems. As more and more transactions use the Asian systems, the use of the USD dollar will decrease. That will radically change the transactional value of the US Dollar.
It will start to deflate towards it’s true and actual value.
Within a year or two, 2023 to 2024, the actual and real value of the US dollar will be exposed. The entire world will witness this. This will result in inflation domestically (perhaps hyper-inflation, depending on the financial adroitness of those in Washington DC), and financial consternation in all nations that are fundamentally tied to the US Dollar. There WILL be shock waves in any nation that is not being serious about taking care of their domestic needs.
It will be a “bumpy” time, but not a catastrophic one. Well, at least the measure of discomfort should be well controlled by skilled and talented leadership in the various nations so affected.
How the USA leadership will react to this is anyone’s guess.
Do you want more?
You can find more articles related to this in my latest index; A New Beginning. And in it are elements of the old, some elements regarding the transition, and some elements that look towards the future.
"Get off our front porch. Get out of our front yard. And stay out of our backyard."
-Summary by Pat Buchanan
And it is not at all being reported in the Western “news”. I wonder why?
Guess.
There is a risk in giving an ultimatum. If the other side rejects this ultimatum (and the possibility is real) then Russia will have to react and will have to switch from diplomacy to military arguments.
If the ultimatum will be rejected it will inevitably lead to much worse bilateral relations and tensions never seen since 1962.
Time is on Russia’s side (each year Russia becomes more powerful militarily) so why taking the risk to dramatically escalate everything now?
The only reason I see is that with the current path Russia considers a clash as inevitable and they see their ultimatum as the only real possibility to avoid a conflict in the near future.
The positive side of the ultimatum is that if it’s a success then the risk of war will be substantially reduced.
The negative side is that if the ultimatum will be rejected then war will become even more likely and may start even sooner.
I'm sure the Russians realize their technical advantage can only be temporary, and are utilizing their advantages while they can.
Searching for the "Russian ultimatum" on the western corporate mouthpieces, it doesn't even register. I'm sure 99% of Americans are absolutely clueless. The propaganda masters are most probably formulating a line of bs that will make Russia look like they aggressor. There really is no access to the masses by non-corporate media.
The questions to me is, "can the East make the West uncomfortable enough without starting a nuclear holocaust to come to reason, or will the West spin the situation to increase its aggression?"
What truly frightens me is when the Empire develops its own hypersonic weapons and first strike tactics become very attractive to the idiots and sociopaths running the Western show.
A Throne of Chinese Skulls! Oh Yeah?
By Chris Faure for the Saker Blog
The hot question among a number of hot questions is: What will China do?
Is there clarity? I would argue yes there is .. some.
The paradox is that West pushes for terms of a new partitioning of the world (democracy summit, unending belligerence, cynical, and hypocritical paranoia), while Russia and China expect terms of surrender.
According to China, there has to be payback for past empire atrocities.
After all, it is well established that the United States has been unyielding attack of China with everything from Bio-Weapons (livestock and human), to color revolutions, to non-stop "hybrid-wars".
In such an environment a kinetic hot war makes little sense because there is no overt military threat against western leadership.
I would argue that Russia’s ultimatum is military containment by agreement, as a first step.
I would also argue that because we do not have insight into step 2 (military/technical counter-threats), we cannot reason that step 2 is not highly coordinated with China, to the nth degree.
Double negatives in the passive voice are confusing. To rewrite the statement:
"There is no reason to believe that China and Russia are not coordinating step 2."
It is so that the USA is no longer the world’s only ‘indispensable nation’.
They are now both dispensable and replaceable in their current form and the only hope is that they will reform themselves.
As there is much that we do not know in terms of further steps, there is also much that we do not know about how China is going to interrelate.
What we do know is that they will be a part of the final dethroning of Western powers’ force for empire. We know this, because they said so and China is dead serious.
Russia made their proposals known.
China did too.
Just today…
20 December 2021
Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on the United States to work with China to find out the way of peaceful coexistence between the two major countries.
He noted some people in the United States are [1] unwilling to admit that other countries also have the right to development, [2] unwilling to accept the fact that China is growing stronger and making progress, [3] unwilling to agree that China and the United States can achieve mutual benefit and win-win results, and [4] are trying to form a camp to contain and suppress China.
“The wrong words and deeds of the U.S. side not only seriously damage the interests of the two peoples, but also seriously impact world peace and stability” Wang said.
Here are the Chinese statements over the past few days:
Shortly after the Putin/Xi Jingping virtual meeting, this question was posed to Foreign Minister Spokesperson Wang Wenbin. Mr Wenbin is a highly competent diplomat.
Question from TASS: In his virtual meeting with Russian President Putin, President Xi Jinping said China will continue to carry out flexible and diverse cooperation with Russia and other member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to safeguard security and stability in the region. What challenges are China and Russia facing in this aspect? What can China and Russia do to safeguard regional security?
Wang Wenbin: On December 15, President Xi Jinping had a virtual meeting with Russian President Putin. The two heads of state had an in-depth exchange of views on core and major issues of common concerns including safeguarding regional security, and achieved new, important consensus.
Translation
The world is witnessing the combined forces of changes and a pandemic both unseen in a century against the backdrop of complex and profound changes in international and regional landscape.
We believe that China and Russia, two permanent members of the UN Security Council, take on an important mission in defending regional peace and stability and promoting development and revitalization of all countries.
For some time, certain countries have been drawing ideological lines, building new military blocs and stoking regional tensions, which have all brought grave threats and challenges to regional peace and stability and global strategic stability.
China and Russia firmly reject this.
We will continue to follow the two leaders’ consensus, take up responsibility, unite all forces that love peace and support peace, and make active contribution to realizing sustained, universal and common security in the region and the wider world.
Certain sentences and words need to be lifted out of ‘diplo-speak’.
Note, the question from the TASS reporter is about regional security. Mr Wenbin, in his response, brought it back to the strategic stability of the wider world.
This sentence: Russia/China take on important mission in defending regional peace and stability and promoting development and revitalization of all countries.
Again, he then speaks about Global Strategic Stability and not only regional.
For some time, certain countries have been drawing ideological lines, building new military blocs and stoking regional tensions, which have all brought grave threats and challenges to regional peace and stability and global strategic stability.
And here is the shocker:
We will continue to follow the two leaders’ consensus, take up responsibility, unite all forces that love peace and support peace, and make active contribution to realizing sustained, universal and common security in the region and the wider world.
The phrase the two leader’s consensus indicates that all plans have been made, everyone stands at the ready, and Putin and Xi Jinping will take the next step probably on a phone call.
The fate of the world is now in the hands of Putin and Xi Jinping.
It is astonishing that China is subjecting itself to The Consensus of the Two Leaders and shows without a shadow of a doubt that they are acting in full concert, strategically, politically, economically coordinated, and we know militarily as well, we just don’t know to what extent.
Another statement from Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin: This statement is interesting in that it shows the emotion (which I’ve never seen him display) of the Chinese people. They are at the end of their strategic patience as well and this is how they feel.
“The era in which the USA acted arbitrarily in the world under the pretext of democracy and human rights is now over.”
CHINA: “The era in which the USA acted arbitrarily in the world under the pretext of democracy and human rights is now over.”
pic.twitter.com/TxIuQHn1GE
— ASB News / MILITARY〽️ (@ASBMilitary) December 15, 2021
Currently, the destruction that the Western powers waged on the world, is transparent. Take a look: Pentagon documents reveal ‘deeply flawed’ US air war: report
Russia and China are stepping into alternative world relations…
…still based on the UN Charter and Law…
…and based on respect between countries.
And more than that, they are proving that it is possible since the first discussions of multi-polarity in the world in 2015 and the first public discussions of Belt and Road in 2013.
The Time Has Come
For years now Russia and China tried to help the Western powers out of their sorry state; but the time has come.
‘Gung-ho’ and ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ seem to be over and at least from China side, this is a tipping point.
The Western powers need to face their downright self-inflicted humiliation.
This will happen economically by moving the world to a new economic system with new economic tools and will go right through to military intervention should the Western powers continue their arbitrary actions.
But nobody will be fighting the ‘West’s War’ and I submit we may see something quite unanticipated by our usual analysis and calculus.
It is already unprecedented that Mr. Lavrov published his diplomatic correspondence with France and Germany regarding the Ukraine.
It is also unprecedented for draft proposals from Russia to be open to the public at this stage.
We are in an unprecedented time.
Want peace, but…
The fact that both Russia, China, and Iran do not start the shooting, is incontrovertible proof that they are genuine in their statements that they want to bring peace.
China is in, boots ‘n all.
If a regional conflagration should break out and it is in Russia’s ballpark (the Ukraine), and Russia can deal with it on her own, China will make sure that the Russian soldiers are the best outfitted and supported of any modern military force that we have ever seen.
You will see a voentorg to beat all voentorgs. Russian forces will drink champagne and eat oysters (OK, this is shameless hyperbole, but it makes the point).
Taiwan has simmered down.
The latest words there from China in the person of Foreign Minister Wang Yi, is Taiwan’s reunification with China is a question of time. “China must and will be reunified,” he stressed.
He noted that there has been growing support for the ‘One-China’ principle around the world, referring to the recent decision by the government of Nicaragua to break ties with Taipei.
“Ten days ago, we resumed diplomatic relations with Nicaragua. The total number of countries with [whom China has] diplomatic ties has increased to 181, and the one-China consensus has been consolidated internationally,”
He said.
If there is a fight, no matter the size, or the manner of the fight, the Chinese are in and I would argue that they are in right now!
Nobody can beat them at producing what is necessary for a fight.
Their own aircraft carrier battle groups are out in the ocean through the near Pacific, South China Seas and other seas.
One has to get used to how China presents things.
Even the media reporting these maneuvers, puts scare quotes around the words “routine drills”. Battle groups are out for scare quoted “routine drills”. They do not say that China is readying herself for a defense of her own basin, in which case Russia will support in the same way that China will support Russia.
Will anyone be able to penetrate beyond and inside the first island chain?
So, it is clear that the Russia/China double helix is operating fine currently.
Mr Wang is not playing a good cop to Russia’s bad cop.
He is making it clear that what is happening is not only a Russian problem, but a problem of the strategic stability in the world, It affects not only Russia, but China as well, and no longer can one entity be allowed to attack others like fish in a barrel.
We cannot think of a multi-front war: the West cannot possibly be that deranged.
Yet, the ludicrous rhetoric in the Western spheres continues apace and distracts from reality.
It is hardly worthwhile rebutting every accusation.
China is not using much rhetoric currently but we can be sure that they note this rhetoric. Knowing the strategic situation in the world, they are not rebutting.
There is no need.
A Throne of Chinese Skulls
We need men ” … who want to sit on a throne of Chinese skulls …”
Tucker Carlson’s guest:“We don’t need a military that’s woman-friendly, that’s gay friendly” we need men “who want to sit on a throne of Chinese skulls, but we don’t have that now. We can’t get women off of naval vessels, that should be step one but most are pregnant anyway.”-pic.twitter.com/9uNzdbx0ON
— nikki mccann ramírez (@NikkiMcR) December 18, 2021
Andrei Martyanov is causing high hilarity about USA representatives that want to ‘kill themselves some Ruskis’ and even offers up a few:
This boy, obviously, despite his tour in Iraq never saw a real war and a real enemy who can actually kill you back even when one is in the bunker inside your own army base.
We can conclude then that the slew of accusations made to Russia, are similar in tone and also in substance, as those made to China.
The minds of these accusers cannot contemplate a peaceful world.
It seems to be impossible for them.
Although Russia is not threatening the Ukraine, and China is not threatening her own Taiwanese province, they believe their belligerent rhetoric can make it so.
Western states are slowly approaching the state of being disconcerted and soon now they will enter a stage of being stunned, as they are now being dictated to on the red lines of the other forces in the world.
We can never forget Iran, which showed everyone how to say NO!
There will be NO conformity to Western red lines.
I venture to say that the USA and cronies will NOT even be allowed to keep operating their Monroe Doctrine.
They will NOT be allowed a sphere of influence.
They will ONLY be allowed their space as a pole in multi-polarity.
The leftist candidate won the elections in Chile yesterday (although there are questions as to how ‘empire-proof’ he is). The one slogan that was visible is:
“If neocolonialism started in Chile, we will end it in Chile”.
Within China, China is looking after China.
They are developing their space program, their Belt and Road which is ‘a force for good’ in the world, and building their economy and continuing to create an increasingly varied and better life for their people. The Olympic Games will continue, and in time Taiwan will reunify.
They are also, with Russia and others, building out a new financial system for the world.
What can stop a war at this stage?
The West will lose. The West has a very strong and simple reason to avoid a new war: They will lose. Their actions are now futile.
The USA is dying. Xi and Putin can still decide to let it die and continue to stay out of the fray. But they have made the decision to enter a confrontational era. We could speculate as to why as the situation reveals itself.
Ready to strike the death blow. China, Asia or the AsiaPacific is ready to end the empirical era. Both Russia and China are ready to end the empirical era in such a way that retaliatory strikes are almost impossible. It is a most complex ballet of threat and counterthreat, coherently managed by the two countries. Russia is not arriving, China is not arriving and Iran is not arriving for the war that the hegemon is inviting them to. How frustrating for them.
What can stop a war?
China and Russia, the consensus of the two leaders probably can. I repeat:
“The era in which the USA acted arbitrarily in the world under the pretext of democracy and human rights is now over.”
Yankee Go Home!
Russia’s ultimatum to the West (IMPORTANT UPDATE)
To understand what just happened, we need to look at two things: how Russia chose to communicate her demands and then the contents of the demands themselves.
However, before I do that, I want to recommend two other points of view, both of which are, in my opinion, very helpful:
I recommend you read them before we continue. This being said, let’s look in more detail at just what happened.
First, this was clearly an ultimatum. Second, it was a public ultimatum.
This is absolutely crucial, as it marks, at the very least, a total break with normal Russian (and Soviet) diplomatic practice.
It is also pretty obvious that both the form and the substance of that ultimatum would be unacceptable to the USA and the US colonies in Europe.
Which begs the question: what are the Russians trying to achieve here?
Some will say that the Russians (or Putin personally) are simply stupid and that they are too arrogant to realize that their ultimatum would never be accepted.
Well, if the USA (the only part of the “West” which matters because it has actual agency) ignores that ultimatum and then merrily continues on the path it has been on since at least Bill Clinton, and if the Russians (or Putin personally) do nothing, then those who believe that the Russians are stupid will be proven right.
Now let’s look at what else might happen.
The first thing we need to understand is that Russia holds all the military cards (read Martyanov for details I won’t bother repeating it all here).
So let’s quickly worst case: “Biden” ignores Russia and Russia replies by deploying weapon systems, including hypersonic weapons, which will threaten the US not only in Russia, but in Belarus, the Arctic, and the mid-Atlantic. Then the US will feel the same way Moscow does: 5 minutes away from annihilation. Will that be good for “Biden”?
Let’s imagine that “Biden” decides to play tough and creates some kind of incident that will force the Russians to either sink a USN ship or shoot down a USAF aircraft. That would mean war.
Here “Biden” would have two options: keep the war below the nuclear threshold and lose that war (the NATO military infrastructure would be gone) or go nuclear and risk a nuclear holocaust. Will either one of these be good for “Biden”?
Now let’s say that “Biden” agrees to negotiate with Russia (while, of course, keeping up with all the pretenses about “consulting with partners and allies”) and the two sides come to some kind of deal. How would that deal manifest itself? Well, that is quite obvious – NATO would have to give up its expansion while Russia would have to provide verifiable guarantees that she will not attack any NATO country. I know, I am skipping over a gazillion of details in which, as the expression goes, the devil lies, but for our purposes this is sufficient. Then, again, I would ask the same question as above: would that be a good outcome for “Biden”?
We need to look at this possibility even further:
First, some of the US EU vassals would be incensed and they would do two things: verbally protest as loudly as possible and engage in whatever action they could come up with to force the situation and create a crisis.
And no, that would not be good for “Biden” at all.
But, consider this: first, “Biden” can tell the EU vassals to shut up and behave. But even more importantly, that “bad option” will look “less bad” to “Biden” than either one of the two options mentioned above (place the entire USA 5min away from destruction or face a full-scale war).
Remember how I said that Russia holds all the military cards?
Russia also holds much stronger political and economic cards than the USA which has close to nothing.
Politically, Russia is now “more than an ally” to China, she is a close partner to India (to the fury of the White House) and politically, she is much less isolated than the USA!
Even the map above does not give the full measure of the situation. Why?
Because most of the “international community” which “supports” (well, obeys) the USA is the EU, which itself is in a terminal crisis on too many levels to count here!
Compare the red and the grey zones on the map, and ask yourself these questions: which zone has the most powerful military? Which zone has the most natural and human resources? which zone has the most promising trading routes? which zone has a real GDP, as opposed to a purely FIRE one? Which one is literally dying spiritually under the trans-national “Woke” ideology and which one has retained the willingness and ability to fight for its spiritual, cultural, and civilizational values? Finally, which zone has a viable vision of the future?
I could go on and on with many more such questions, but I think that you see my point: the USA is not only losing militarily, but it is also losing on all fronts!
Next question: what does the USA need most?
Well, there are plenty of things the USA need, but I would single out one: time. Why? Because the truth is that the USA has only two options left: a “Kabul style” retreat from Europe or an orderly, negotiated “rearrangement” of the European collective security system (which, let’s not forget, the USA screwed up all by itself, a true disaster for which the USA is now totally responsible for).
[Sidebar: there is not such thing as unilateral security. All real security is always collective. That truism is now a dangerous political heresy in the West for which folks get (figuratively) burned at the stake for. Unilateralism is just a trigger for insecurity and, eventually, war.]
If there is no war, then NATO will survive, at least politically. If there is no war, “Biden” will be able to say that the West’s “firm and united” stance forced Russia to make concessions: remember how the Cuban missile crisis was presented by the USA as a US victory when, in fact, it forced the USA to withdraw missiles from Turkey?
It has been many decades since the Cuban missile crisis, yet something like 99% of the people in the US and EU sincerely believes that the US “won”!
The AngloZionist propaganda machine can easily repeat that once more.
Except for a “small” problem: this time around, Russia presented her ultimatum first and made so very publicly.
Why did the Russians choose this method?
Well, I don’t know, I cannot read the Kremlin’s mind, but my guess is that Russia wants way more than just a “draw” (which is what the Cuban missile crisis was). Russia wants a full victory which she would define as “defanging NATO“, at least in Europe. Why?
Now let’s look at Russia’s options:
Do nothing aka “more of the same”: that means full surrender to the West, followed by a partition of Russia and a US attack on China. To say that this is unacceptable to Russia would be an understatement.
Or
Gradually step down from the demands of the ultimatum: that is a more interesting one and it is again a case of “the devil is in the details”. For example, the existence of NATO by itself means nothing to Russia. Ditto for the EU, by the way. All these are in reality are irrelevant Kaffeeklatsch pretexts for politicians with no future, and countries with no agency. The biggest mistake made by both the EU and NATO was its “glorious” expansion to the East only to find out that all this achieved was irreparably weaken both the EU NATO as the newcomers were, how shall I put it politely, quite terminally stupid, corrupt and infantile. When I listen to EU and NATO politicians, I think of a Kindergarten on crack cocaine or something equally insane (see here for a perfect example).
So one option for Russia would be to “creatively revisit” the terms of her ultimatum and then keep the substance while jettisoning the hostile tone and giving the West some symbolic “concessions”. Would that be a good option for Putin? Well, it all will depend on the mentioned “devil in details”. If at the end of the process NATO is defanged, then yes. If NATO remains as aggressively hostile as it is today, then no.
Which begs the question: what will Russia do in such a case?
Here we need to at least consider one option: a Russian recognition of the LDNR justified by Kiev’s total rejection (de facto and de jure) of the Minsk Agreements and the constant Ukronazi provocations and attacks on the LDNR: remember two things Putin said recently. He spoke of “not yet recognized republics” and he spoke of “genocide“.
Of course, the Ukronazis would have to attack (even at least symbolically), which would allow Russia to make a military move against the Ukraine, free the LDNR and deploy Russian forces inside these republics, fully backed by Belarus, of course, and, possibly, even China (politically). Notice I did not say “invasion”.
Let’s imagine that Russia will use her standoff weapon systems to defang the Ukies, liberate the LDNR, and then will turn to the rest of Europe with a “smile” strongly suggesting the following “which of you guys wants to be next?” This would result in a total panic in Europe, especially in Mons, Brussels, and Warsaw.
And here is the beauty of that option: Russia can easily strike Mons and Brussels (or Warsaw) with conventional weapons and leave most of these cities in mint shape. And if the EU/NATO decides to strike back, then Russia will wage a full-scale war against the EU/NATO and she will win it.
What about the “Biden” administration in such a scenario? The Pentagon knows what Russian missiles can do to it and any other military objective in the continental USA. I very much doubt that the US deep state will be willing to commit mass suicide just to try (and fail!) to protect the EU. Besides, the Russians have no intentions or capabilities, to invade the EU anyway, so why destroy the USA for a threat which does not even exist?!
Does “Biden” want to go down in history as “the President who lost Europe”?
Would “the President who triggered a nuclear holocaust” sound any better?
So by making her demands public, Russia has (for the first time and finally!!) also sent a message to the people of the West. This message can be summarized like this: we don’t want war, but if you insist, we will oblige.
And, for the first time since 1991, Russia does have the objective means to achieve these goals.
So there, we have it, I think.
Now we also need to address the elephant in the room: the US War Party and, even more so, the EU infantiles on crack cocaine. For them, defanging NATO would be utterly unacceptable…
… or would it?
The US War Party is just that, US-based. And while some of the talking heads on the idiot tube do sound like real “hawks”, the military professionals in the US armed forces know the real score.
Not only that, but the “smart wing” of the War Party understands that the USA desperately needs time and an orderly draw-down, even if just a temporary one!
Their game is, as I said many times, a game of what I call “nuclear chicken” but, crucially, a game short of actual nuclear war which they don’t need at all (if only because they would likely die themselves).
Which leaves the EU infantiles on crack cocaine.
Here I am going to say something terrible, and I feel really bad for writing this, but I only see one method to get the Europeans back from la-la-land to the real world: Russia has to defeat them militarily, yet again, as she did over and over in her history.
Somehow, the narcissistic megalomaniacs who currently administer the European continent on behalf of the USA won’t read history and won’t rein in their deep sense of racial superiority over the subhuman Russian Asiatic hordes.
These modern wannabe Kulturtraegers and assorted Herrenvolk still hate Russia for defeating Hitler, Napoleon, and the rest of them, and for them, their phobia (in the sense of both hate and fear) of everything Russian is now part of their identity, something quite sacred to them and to hell with those who think otherwise!
The only effective way to bring the European Master Races back to reality is well-known (see picture).
I would argue that such an outcome goes directly against the interests of BOTH the USA and Russia. And, most obviously, it goes totally against the interests of the people of Europe.
But if the latter does nothing to prevent such an outcome, then it is for the USA and Russia to prevent it.
And if the USA won’t prevent it, then Russia will deliver.
As for the notion that boycotts, sanctions (even from hell!), or the cancellation of NS2 will stop the Russians -it is truly beyond ridiculous. Last time around, Russia lost 27 million people and then rebuilt her economy within a decade.
In fact, it is so real that it was made public for two reasons I believe: first, of course, to try to appeal to the people of the West and, second, to morally “untie the hands” of Russia should it come to full-scale war.
Analysts in the West always assume that public gestures are somehow exclusively aimed at them. They are wrong.
This ultimatum is also addressed to the Russian people and Russian armed forces and says this to them:
“people of Russia, we tried all we could to avoid this, we pleaded and begged for decades, and we retreated on many fronts, yet in spite of that, the West keeps pressing on. We will never allow a June 22nd to happen again. Prepare for war“.
I will end with three quotes by Putin himself:
“As a citizen of Russia and the head of the Russian state I must ask myself: Why would we want a world without Russia?”
“Fifty years ago, the streets of Leningrad taught me one thing: If a fight’s inevitable, you must strike first”
“Any aggressor should know that retribution will be inevitable and he will be destroyed. And since we will be the victims of his aggression, we will be going to heaven as martyrs. They will simply drop dead, won’t even have time to repent,”
UPDATE: according to the Russian media citing “diplomatic sources”, China has given her full support to the Russian demands. What that actually means or implies is unclear, but this is the first indication that the Russian ultimatum was coordinated with the Chinese and that China will have some kind of role to play in the next move of the Russians if the US rejects the Russian demands.
Why? Well, we definitely don’t know the answer to that because it’s a secret. But we can guess. And my guess is that Russia knows something: that, essentially, the US is much weaker than anyone in the US thinks and waiting any longer will leave the world in an untenable situation. Thus, Russia is eager to get these deals signed ASAP, while there is still someone in Washington who can hold a pen. And the last useful thing that Washington can do is, essentially, disband NATO (which is what signing Russia’s ultimatum would essentially accomplish).
I’ve written about all of this before, and it goes like this:
• A situation where offering a million dollars for a book of matches gets you a punch to the face
• No access to imports of any sort within the (former) US because there is no longer a credit mechanism for funding trade; no functioning utilities or transportation networks; a new economy based on looting and barter.
• My “Five Stages of Collapse” in chorus with 4-part harmony while Russia and China do their best to keep US nuclear and bioterror installations and facilities under control while repatriating their nationals and providing a bit of humanitarian aid to those who cooperate with them.
Look at the title of this article: it contains the word “ultimatum” for a really excellent reason. Russia is not negotiating; Russia is spelling out how it will all go down, either voluntarily or involuntarily, and that last bit is all that’s left to decide. But while the ultimatum is as public as possible, its implementation will be as secretive as possible. Essentially, we don’t know how it will happen because we are not allowed to know.
Comments – Whozhere
You are correct Dmitry…..
“that Russia knows something: that, essentially, the US is much weaker than anyone in the US thinks”
In a nutshell, the Biden operation has no access to the nuclear arsenal of the US.
Comments – Mike from Jersey
I live in the United States.
There is a dynamic playing out.
A very substantial amount of the population no longer supports the government or major institutions. They look on their own government/institutional structure as the enemy. They no longer consider this to be a flawed, but nonetheless, functioning system.
They consider themselves living under the heel of an occupying army which is suppressing them and their freedom. The numbers who take this position are large. Probably as much as thirty per cent or more.
On the other hand the people pulling the levers of power have no understanding of this erosion of faith. They act with a total lack of awareness that they are surrounded by large numbers of very angry citizens.
It may be that Russian intelligence understands what the American “intelligencia” does not.
Comment – Dmitry
The numbers the Russians have voiced are that 40% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans are in favor of disbanding the USA. This is quite far beyond what’s needed to make it happen with even a minimal external stress.
Comment – Eagle Eye
Looks like schadenfruede is going to get a workout shortly.
And if disbanding the USA happens, where does that leave Klaus Swabbe and his WEF Great Reset agenda? What happens to Wall Street and Operation Mockingbird media control in the collapse scenario and how does that play out globally?
“On the other hand the people pulling the levers of power have no understanding of this erosion of faith. They act with a total lack of awareness that they are surrounded by large numbers of very angry citizens.”
I see that same dynamic here in Australia at a state and federal level. Others are seeing it elsewhere. It is no longer an academic debate, but an existential problem. The media no longer accurately portray the public mood with the exception of grief following tragedy, like the local one where kids got killed in a freak playground accident. Beyond that the public reaction is endlessly spun to deliver the story “media” wants told, the truth be damned.
The danger for “the West” is that nominally democratic nations will fall to totalitarianism. There is a very interesting but disturbing interview with clinical psychologist, Professor Matthias Desmet at panedemic podcasts which should be on the must listen list of the readership. It details the steps to take to create a mass formation and what that psychological phenomenon is capable of delivering. In his well qualified view the management of the Covid Pandemic in the West can bring about such a response from the public. If it does the damage will compound with that from the USA collapse Dmitry forsees and the result will be truly biblical carnage.
Comment – Blackring
@Dmitry Orlov
“…while the ultimatum is as public as possible, its implementation will be as secretive as possible”
Ok, that explained lack of “else” in ultimatum. But because of showing too much patience to spoiled brats, now it is necessary to bitch-slap them to senses. As many times as it takes.
I do not see how this can be done secretly enough. Thanks to informational technology and MSM dominance, West have advantage in clandestine game.
In addition, since UKUS always preferred to use proxies, it is wise to embolden vassals to defect.
Russian advantage is in having hyper-sonic weapons, which allows tactics used by West against weak opponents without air defense. Maybe something like Israelis did in Gaza can be done to, say, Aegis Ashore in Romania. “Knock on roof”, followed with Big Kaboom after personnel runs away. Big hole in the ground – no casualties. After that, friendly talk can begin.
Seriously, it is long overdue that Empire get a taste of its own medicine.
Comment – Scuppers
Why now? Because it’s the right moment. I keep coming back to the game of chess, in my mind. White (the west in this analogy) starts the game with the initiative, and black (Russia in this analog) has the task of arresting that initiative, and stealing it. Black did that in 2015-2018, and locked the board. But white keeps trying to regain the initiative, and at this point, black blocks, but also ensures that every counter move makes white’s next move more catastrophic. And 3 years later, we are at the point that if white decides to start trading pieces, it will lose catastrophically. So you offer your opponent a way out. Tip your king and bow out, and come back another day to play again or get blown out and humiliated. There is a third option; throw the board in the air and everyone loses. Let us hope the west doesn’t choose option 3.
Comment – RZW
Why I agree with Orlov, my guess is that Russia has intelligence about false flag or attack on Donbass. Just for the record keep in mind 6th of January (Orthodox Christmas eve) and 4th of February (Opening of Olympic games, Putin in China).
Comment – Ted Richard
Andrei, ultimatums are generally if not always time dependent…. time specific, which is to say a Russian ultimatum declared today has a shelf life before agreement or action must be taken………that time is in your opinion……..years, months, weeks?
Comment – The Saker
To begin negotiations, the Russians said “tomorrow in Geneva”, but that was metaphorical.
A month, maybe 2 max.
But the key decisions might have already been taken.
I don’t think these people understand what is at stake here.
That is exactly my biggest fear too.
Comments – Razor
it seems logical to me that Russia has already decided what action it will take if, as likely, the West brushes off its ultimatum. I would assume that whatever action it takes, will be measured. A trip wire if you like, to show it means business, and to awaken the sleeping masses in EU US, while allowing the West to step back from Armageddon. And if that doesn’t create the desired result, they will also no doubt have planned for this eventuality, which could of course mean full pedal to the metal, God save us.
Comments – Peterd
I recently came across the wicked suggestion by somebody to counteract NATOs eastward expansion of Russia by offering Kaliningrad (formerly Königsberg until 1946) as a naval/military base for China, sharing it with the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy. That would certainly put the cat among the euro-pigeons sandwiched as it is between Lithuania and Poland.
Comments – War is coming
These people need a ‘lesson’ teached by Russia to be sure they never come back again with their idiocy, wargames, sanctions, ‘kill some Russians” etc…they must have ‘the fear of their life’ at least once, otherwise they will double down forever.
Comments – GRI
I read on another site the following news: from February 1, 2022, for the first time in Russia, the national standard “Urgent burial of corpses in peacetime and wartime” is being introduced. It describes that the authorities must be prepared to bury thousands of people in mass graves. The standards for graves, labor costs, the amount of equipment and the way of storing corpses have been established. The question is whether the ultimatum and the introduction of the above-mentioned measures are correlated.
Comment – Vaughan
The reason for Russia’s hardened stance imo may be the absolute and quickened spiritual and moral decline of the West.
They’ve become like the bully in a bar room brawl who, will pounce with the killer blow once the peace deal and handshake have been made and the innocent victim looks away.
Russia has endured so much ridicule, lies and mockery via Western leaders now for the past 12-15 years now. There are too many statements to quote.
Russia and Putin in general, have become the ‘hit piece’ of mocking ridicule of the Western Leaders and US Generals and simply, their time is up.
I feel that Russia has finally taken as much as she can and the Russian Leaders KNOW that they can no longer trust a country like the USA who’s own people have lost faith in their once robust institutions.
The American people have lost faith in their democratic system, the media, the judiciary, and their stumbling bumbling President’s’.
Indeed, the people have become the enemy of their own government.
On the world stage, the US has become a joke unto herself. A mockery of the great country she once was and, the decline of that country and all that made her great have been systematically dismantled and white anted away.
Her leaders words mean nothing. Their deals mean nothing and their words mean nothing.
Sadly, truth to them, holds no value and is treated accordingly.
Words are used by them but their words mean nothing and have no weight. No long lasting reach. No true value. Therefore, their words have become like the wind, carrying with it a scent from where it was but not strong enough to have any value
Russia knows that unless they can draw the line now, a declaration of peace is impossible.
Russian leaders know that long lasting peace for Russia may not disappear with a bang but wither over time by a thousand cuts. A dissolving. A watering down of conditions, a watering down of borders and a watering down of understanding until soon enough, peace will no longer exist.
This kind of peace is no peace at all.
“Peace peace where there is no peace”.
War is an abomination but the dissolving of peace slowly before your very eyes is a burden no true Leader can entertain.
This is what has been happening since the Wall came down. A slow dissolving of peace.
The Russians have always seemed to attempt to turn the other cheek. They’ve used logic and were met with mockery. They’ve valued truth with a people who excelled in connivance.
They valued respect and were met with ridicule.
Finally, they’ve run out of humour. They’ve run out of hope that hope still exists in the West. They’ve been met with no truth, no logic and no respect
And now, we will see if these western ‘leaders’ have steel in their backbones or jelly in their pants.
I know what I believe we’ll see.
Comment – Band Itkoitko
“I only see one method to get the Europeans back from la-la-land to the real world: Russia has to defeat them militarily.”
Alternatively, and almost equivalently in term of a shock effect, is Russia completely defeating them economically. Let’s have Western people go and clean toilets in Asia or US Americans work in the fields of Mexico. Let the world reverse, they will be more than humbled and more than defeated. Their “greatness” illusion will be destroyed. Their ridiculous “superiority” will be vanquished.
Notably, the West is doing everything necessary to enact their own economic defeat. So no much effort on the Russian side is needed.
Comment – CDvision
Very smart move by Russia. They are likely convinced a conflict is unavoidable, but want to lay these documents down so that history will be unequivocally on their side.
At this point. I too am convinced that a conflict is inevitable. The collective West is finished economically, politically and culturally. Its their last gambit – to upset the board.
Should the peace terms be rejected (likely) then I expect Russia to have a Mike Tyson, punch in the face, at the ready. Paradoxically, 404 attacking the Donbass plays into Russia’s hands, and provides the cause for a Gotterdammerung. Then there will be a much shorter ultimatum sent to the West.
Comment – Tedrichard
the other half of the ultimatum neither written or spoken is the elegance of china moving against taiwan simultaneous to something happening in ukraine.
this places the pentagon and usa in an utterly untenable place where neither victory can be achieved and a massive loss of face.
if you are russia and china and you coordinate so many things now and for future it makes no sense NOT coordinate this geopolitical move resolving both problems at the same time with a minimum of fuss and which will overwhelm the western msm narrative manipulation.
Comment – MIJJ
My feeling is Russia/China have already won. What US is doing is what any ill-disciplined child would do to instinctively create a primitive sense of dominance – throw the chess board across the room, trample the pieces scream hate and yell threats to instinctively create a primitive sense of dominance.
If you hate a person , then you are defeated by them
– Confucius.
MM Comments
Russia and China are SERIOUS.
I fully expect the USA to take zero action. Just like when China announced at the UN in 2020 that the United States had to answer for the 11 bio-weapon attacks against China.
Nothing apparently happened.
Well, nothing publicly visible happened.
And I fully expect the same thing; a repeat of the sloth, and arrogance of the United States government. Only this time, it will be visibly kinetic.
Do you want more?
You can find more articles related to this in my latest index; A New Beginning. And in it are elements of the old, some elements regarding the transition, and some elements that look towards the future.
Well, the warning signs are everywhere. America is the worst, but throughout the West the facade and the walls are collapsing everywhere.
Uh oh.
“Whether the mask is labeled fascism, democracy, or dictatorship of the proletariat, our great adversary remains the apparatus—the bureaucracy, the police, the military.
Not the one facing us across the frontier of the battle lines, which is not so much our enemy as our brothers’ enemy, but the one that calls itself our protector and makes us its slaves.
No matter what the circumstances, the worst betrayal will always be to subordinate ourselves to this apparatus and to trample underfoot, in its service, all human values in ourselves and in others.”
—Simone Weil, French philosopher and political activist
It’s actually very sad.
And everyone is aware of all this. It’s not like it is a secret or anything. The United States government has been out of control from some time now, and today everyone has passed the “take the money and run” phase of societal collapse.
Today it’s the verge of conflagration.You can taste it in the air. You hear whispering, murmurings. You feel things aren’t exactly right. It’ the building up right before the holy Hell storm knocks cars, buildings and trees flat.
It’s the point in time where the monkeys are starting to jump up and down, the birds are flying off somewhere, and the dogs and cats can’t be found.
As for all the economic benefits, they're just a lot of well-known narratives using the USD as a measurement of success, wealth, or power.
Why should we even be comparing economies using a measurement that one nation can print while all others have to earn?
It makes no sense.
You are Here…
Indeed it doesn’t. Which puts us (and the world) the big massive mess that it is in today. Let’s look where the USA military empire is right now…
However, no one knows how long it is from “here” to the actually accepted “death” of the United States oligarchy-run military empire. We can only wait and hope that it will be transformative, quick and as painless (for us) as possible.
Pissed Lizard speaks…
To Americans. This week is going to be the first of the birthpangs.
In the EXACT SAME WAY MM was able to anchor sentiences, using LITERALLY the exact same mechanism (its the movement of gravity thru a tube of E/M during the PARTICLE phase - and he really really does a better job than I explaining it - BUT:
Think of that on a micro scale with “major events” on the world template. This is called vertical time travel.
Right now there are many MANY (I can’t go into numbers but if you live in America you are feeling it) but these Chrononauts are INTENTIONALLY RUNNING THE ECONOMY I TO THE GROUND. It’s on purpose.
The cleanup will NOT be worse than the crash.
This is a race between nuclear annihilation or economic - but either way we all know we are going down.
Just hang on. You will feel pain next week and into November. IT WILL BE OVER BY NEW YEARS.
Them the rest of the world deals with their economic problems - if they have them. Or WILL have them. Who knows.
Mid-November you will NOT get a flight out of the States to China. Period. This percentage is well into the “done deal” numbers.
We are DOING IT ON PURPOSE. We are feeeding on the dreams of our enemies and they are having nightmares.
BUT WE ARE FEEDING STARTING TONIGHT.
Please - Americans - take it easy on eachother.
What will be balanced will be balanced.
What will be will BE.
So Mote it BE.
All of this I know to be true.
EMMAA///EMMIT
The following is a good article that sums all this up nicely. At least as far as the domestic side of the United States today…
Tyrants of the Nanny State: When the Government Thinks It Knows Best
We labor today under the weight of countless tyrannies, large and small, carried out in the so-called name of the national good,,,
…by an elite class of governmental and corporate officials who are largely insulated from the ill effects of their actions.
We, the middling classes, are not so fortunate.
We find ourselves badgered, bullied and browbeaten into bearing the brunt of their arrogance, paying the price for their greed.
We find ourselves suffering the backlash for their militarism, and agonizing as a result of their inaction.
We tire of them feigning ignorance about their backroom dealings, overlooking their incompetence, and turning a blind eye to their misdeeds.
And we tire of cowering from their heavy-handed tactics, and blindly hoping for change that never comes.
The overt signs of the despotism exercised by the increasingly authoritarian regime that passes itself off as the United States government (and its corporate partners in crime) are all around us:
COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccine mandates that strip Americans of their freedom of movement and bodily integrity;
censorship,
criminalizing,
shadow banning and de-platforming of individuals who express ideas that are politically incorrect or unpopular;
warrantless surveillance of Americans’ movements and communications;
SWAT team raids of Americans’ homes;
shootings of unarmed citizens by police;
harsh punishments meted out to schoolchildren in the name of zero tolerance;
armed drones taking to the skies domestically;
endless wars;
out-of-control spending;
militarized police;
roadside strip searches;
roving TSA sweeps;
privatized prisons with a profit incentive for jailing Americans;
fusion centers that spy on, collect and disseminate data on Americans’ private transactions;
and militarized agencies with stockpiles of ammunition, to name some of the most appalling.
Yet as egregious as these incursions on our rights may be, it’s the endless, petty tyrannies…
…those heavy-handed, punitive-laden dictates…
…inflicted by a self-righteous, Big-Brother-Knows-Best bureaucracy on us.
For we are an overtaxed, overregulated, and underrepresented populace…
One that that illustrates so clearly the degree to which “we the people” are viewed as incapable of common sense…
… moral judgment…
… fairness…
… and intelligence…
… not to mention lacking a basic understanding of how to stay alive, raise a family, or be part of a functioning community.
What is America today?
It’s hard to say whether we’re dealing with a kleptocracy (a government ruled by thieves)…
A kakistocracy (a government run by unprincipled career politicians, corporations and thieves that panders to the worst vices in our nature and has little regard for the rights of American citizens), or…
This certainly isn’t a constitutional democracy, however.
Nanny State despotism
This overbearing Nanny State despotism is what happens when government representatives (those elected and appointed to work for us) adopt the authoritarian notion that the government knows best.
And therefore MUST control, regulate and dictate almost everything about the citizenry’s public, private and professional lives.
The government’s bureaucratic attempts at muscle-flexing by way of overregulation and overcriminalization have reached such outrageous limits…
…that federal and state governments now require on penalty of a fine that individuals apply for permission before they can…
grow exotic orchids,
host elaborate dinner parties,
gather friends in one’s home for Bible studies,
give coffee to the homeless,
let their kids manage a lemonade stand,
keep chickens as pets,
or braid someone’s hair, as ludicrous as that may seem.
And while Californians are free to have sex with whomever they choose (because that’s none of the government’s business), removing a condom during sex without consent could make you liable for general, special and punitive damages.
Oh, and by the way, a war of distraction is not going to happen.
The funding for all of this hate-China is straight from Taiwan billionaires, and my gut feeling is that if China needs to “take them out”, they will do so. Through black operations, or a dirty nuke, these people are going to be silenced one way or the other. Remember, boys and girls, China does not play. Video.
Please note that there are a bunch of videos in this article. Your best best bet is to click on the “VIDEO here” and open up the video in a new window. Otherwise it might take a while for the videos to load if you click on the movie arrow below.
It’s getting worse.
Almost every aspect of American life today—especially if it is work-related—is subject to this kind of heightened scrutiny and ham-fisted control.
This is what happens when bureaucrats run the show, and the rule of law becomes little more than a cattle prod for forcing the citizenry to march in lockstep with the government.
Overregulation is just the other side of the coin to overcriminalization, that phenomenon in which everything is rendered illegal and everyone becomes a lawbreaker.
That same overcriminalization mindset reared its ugly head again when police arrested a 90-year-old man for violating an ordinance that prohibits feeding the homeless in public unless portable toilets are also made available.
Florida
It’s no coincidence that both of these incidents—the fishing debacle and the homeless feeding arrest—happened in Florida.
Despite its pristine beaches and balmy temperatures, Florida is no less immune to the problems plaguing the rest of the nation in terms of overcriminalization, incarceration rates, bureaucracy, corruption, and police misconduct.
A few years back, in fact, Florida officials authorized police raids on barber shops in minority communities, resulting in barbers being handcuffed in front of customers, and their shops searched without warrants.
As if criminalizing fishing, charity, and haircuts wasn’t bad enough, you could also find yourself passing time in a Florida slammer for such inane activities as singing in a public place while wearing a swimsuit…
In this way, the Sunshine State is representative of the transformation happening across the nation, where a steady diet of bread and circuses has given rise to an oblivious, inactive citizenry content to be ruled over by an inflexible and highly bureaucratic regime.
America has gone from being a beacon of freedom to a locked down nation.
And “we the people,” sold on the idea that safety, security and material comforts are preferable to freedom, have allowed the government to pave over the Constitution in order to erect a concentration camp.
The problem with these devil’s bargains, however, is that there is always a catch, always a price to pay for whatever it is we valued so highly as to barter away our most precious possessions.
We’ve bartered away our right to self-governance, self-defense, privacy, autonomy and that most important right of all—the right to tell the government to “leave me the hell alone.”
In exchange for the promise of an end to global pandemics, lower taxes, lower crime rates, safe streets, safe schools, blight-free neighborhoods, and readily accessible technology, health care, water, food and power, we’ve opened the door…
…to
lockdowns,
militarized police,
government surveillance,
asset forfeiture,
school zero tolerance policies,
license plate readers,
red light cameras,
SWAT team raids,
health care mandates,
overcriminalization,
overregulation
and government corruption.
In the end, such bargains always turn sour.
We relied on the government to help us safely navigate national emergencies (terrorism, natural disasters, global pandemics, etc.) only to find ourselves forced to relinquish our freedoms on the altar of national security, yet we’re no safer (or healthier) than before.
Oh, Here’s American “Leadership”
Watch one of the major American Senate leaders discuss matters with her “constituents”. VIDEOhere.
So Huawei has 5G, and the USA doesn’t… because Huawei “reverse engineered” it from American companies. Huh?
America is fucked “360 ways from November”…
We asked our lawmakers to be tough on crime, and we’ve been saddled with an abundance of laws that criminalize almost every aspect of our lives. So far, we’re up to 4500 criminal laws and 300,000 criminal regulations that result in average Americans unknowingly engaging in criminal acts at least three times a day.
We wanted criminals taken off the streets, and we didn’t want to have to pay for their incarceration. What we’ve gotten is a nation that boasts the highest incarceration rate in the world, with more than 2.3 million people locked up, many of them doing time for relatively minor, nonviolent crimes, and a private prison industry fueling the drive for more inmates, who are forced to provide corporations with cheap labor.
A special report by CNBC breaks down the national numbers:
One out of 100 American adults is behind bars — while a stunning one out of 32 is on probation, parole or in prison.
Police seminars advise officers to use their “department wish list when deciding which assets to seize” and, in particular, go after flat screen TVs, cash and nice cars.
In Florida, where police are no strangers to asset forfeiture.
Florida police have been carrying out “reverse” sting operations, where they pose as drug dealers to lure buyers with promises of cheap cocaine, then bust them, and seize their cash and cars.
Over the course of a year, police in one small Florida town seized close to $6 million using these entrapment schemes.
We fell for the government’s promise of safer roads, only to find ourselves caught in a tangle of profit-driven red light cameras, which ticket unsuspecting drivers in the so-called name of road safety while ostensibly fattening the coffers of local and state governments.
Despite widespread public opposition, corruption and systemic malfunctions, these cameras—used in 24 states and Washington, DC—are particularly popular with municipalities, which look to them as an easy means of extra cash.
Building on the profit-incentive schemes, the cameras’ manufacturers are also pushing speed cameras and school bus cameras, both of which result in heft fines for violators who speed or try to go around school buses.
Yet when all is said and done, who is really to blame when the wool gets pulled over your eyes: you, for believing the con man, or the con man for being true to his nature?
It’s time for a bracing dose of reality, America.
Wake up and take a good, hard look around you, and ask yourself if the gussied-up version of America being sold to you—crime free, worry free, disease free and devoid of responsibility—is really worth the ticket price: nothing less than your freedoms.
And on the Geo-Political front…
…we have this;
...As for your suggestions of how China should behave with Taiwan, China didn't listen to such reasonable advice in 1950 and suffered thirty years of economic embargo, what is the chance of them listening to yours today?
China has already learned the lesson of trusting in the goodwill of dissemblers in 1992, why should they repeat some more of the same?
Should we expect the Chinese Communists to be stupid?
As for all the economic benefits, they're just a lot of capitalist narrative using the USD lie as measurement. Why should we even be comparing economies using a measurement that one nation can print while all others have to earn?
The real danger for the empire is that this big lie is about to collapse.
Most people forget that the power of the empire's lie comes from the support of its victims. You and I support it when we use it.
China is in fact a strong supporter of it. They still measure their GDP using the USD, giving the lie legitimacy. This is the next narrative that must be changed.
As for your changing social forces in Taiwan and elsewhere, a lot of it is manufactured consent.
How many Taiwanese do you know? Do you know that a million Taiwanese live in China as long term residents?
Do you know most Taiwanese originally came from mainland China and have hometowns and relatives in China?
The manufactured social forces, similar to the social forces that were in Hong Kong, come from a lot of brainless people with a headful of poison for all things China.
Guess who created them? The same insidious "deep state" that has been conducting the global anti-China propaganda war, the benign source of your changing social forces.
This true "deep state" wants us to believe that all of the empire's atrocities suffered by its victims come from some nebulous, intangible, and invisible Deep State, so that people become confused and do not know their real enemy.
How do you fight your enemy if you do not know what it is and where it is? These people have unlimited budgets drawn from the victims. They use their power to spy, threaten, disrupt, starve, torture, and kill their victims with impunity.
Most importantly, they corrupt a society dependent on truth to create a giant cesspool of lies where their victims become maggots, who know nothing but shit from the moment of their birth until they take their last breath.
For these maggots, shit is mother's milk and it tastes good.
China is threatening this cesspool by waking the maggots to their shitty world while showing them the possibility of a life prancing among flowers while drinking sweet nectar.
The reunification of Taiwan will accelerate this awakening. Geopolitical advantages aside, which will make the encircled China the encircler, China will also own and control a majority of the supply chain for all things electronic.
The capitalist lies of the USD will be exposed.
Why would China receive useless paper in return for their valuable and irreplaceable goods that the rest of the world can't make? In fact, why would anyone else who has a choice?
The propaganda that comes out of the lying machine will simply be shit that no one wants to go near.
The blowback will be complete and the lying empire will drown in its own cesspool of lies.
The true benefit of the reunification with Taiwan is the acceleration of the empire's downfall.
There is no amount of USD that can measure this benefit not only for China but for the rest of the world.
In the end, China will remain America's friend, don't worry, when the mesmerized people of America rise up and give the empire's evil enablers their comeuppance.
-[redacted]
And the point is…
…Americans will NEVER rise up. It will never happen. Why?
But,Lets be real…
America is a police state, domestically. A military empire internationally, and is failing in every measure of success.
It won’t be long now until the final moments of the last vestiges of the lies be torn from the facade.
In case you all haven’t been paying attention, the United States is a real mess. It’s a nation of serfs that service the ultra-billionaire class. And everything in America is for profit, with only one goal and that is to make the rich richer. This horrible leeching of society has reached a point of danger. And you all must face the fact that the only way that it is going to change is by kinetic action.
Yahoo! News Informs the Stupid Peasants Why the US Needs to Go to War to Protect Taiwan
The actual appropriate headline for this article would be
“A Baby’s First Guide to Why the US Must Initiate a World War in Order to Prevent Chinese Reunification.”
The article gives a quick, slanted and false outline of the situation which does not attempt to either:
Explain the Chinese position on Taiwan, or
Explain why Taiwan is important to “American interests.”
It then gives a series of quotes from supposed experts on what Joe Biden should do.
A firm commitment to defend Taiwan is the best way to prevent an invasion
“The United States needs to remove the ambiguity about whether it would come to Taiwan’s defense. Uncertainty about U.S. intentions raises the risk of war. … President Biden should declare that, though we will not support a Taiwanese declaration of independence from China, we will defend the island if it is attacked.” — Max Boot, Washington Post
The U.S. must accept it has nothing to gain from defending Taiwan
“Bluntly put, America should refuse to be drawn into a no-win war with Beijing. It needs to be said up front: there would be no palatable choice for Washington if China finally makes good on its decades-long threat to take Taiwan by force.” — Daniel L. Davis, defense priorities senior fellow, Guardian
The U.S. should maintain its noncommittal position as long as it can
“As a superpower, the United States should preserve flexibility in its global security relationships. It also is not even obvious that Taiwan’s body politic would welcome an explicit security guarantee from the United States.” — Therese Shaheen, National Review
Taiwan is too important to U.S. interests to let it be taken by the Chinese
“Abandoning Taiwan in the face of a Chinese military assault would be a monumental disaster. … The U.S. cannot afford to see a country that occupies vital strategic space in the Western Pacific subdued by Beijing.” — Hal Brands, Bloomberg
War with China would pose an existential threat to the U.S.
“Stumbling into a shooting war over Taiwan is akin to opening a Pandora’s box, and it would make the last 20 years of conflict in the Middle East look like an uneventful peacekeeping mission. A fight between Washington and Beijing could also escalate to the nuclear level, particularly if the Chinese Communist Party determines that the use of such weapons is the only thing standing in the way of a humiliating defeat.” — Daniel R. DePetris, NBC News
America has a duty to protect the free world from authoritarianism
“The United States and its allies have built and defended a rules-based system over the past 75 years that has produced unprecedented peace, prosperity, and freedom globally. I don’t want to trade that in for a world in which Americans stand by as revisionist autocracies like China gobble up neighbors by military force.” — Matthew Kroenig, Foreign Policy
The U.S. also has diplomatic tools to deter China from invading
“To further demonstrate U.S. resolve, Biden should tell Beijing that any more threats of force against Taiwan’s participation in the democracy summit will trigger immediate diplomatic recognition of Taiwan and an official statement of Washington’s new ‘One China, One Taiwan’ policy. Beijing must understand that war would mean instant Taiwan independence.” — Joseph Bosco, The Hill
The best way to defend Taiwan is through investment, not military threats
“Hyping the threat that China poses to Taiwan does Beijing’s work for it. Taiwan’s people need reasons for confidence in their own future, not just reminders of their vulnerabilities. If American policy makers want to help Taiwan, they will need to go beyond focusing on the military threat. They need to modernize the U.S.-Taiwan economic relationship, help Taiwan diversify its trade ties and provide platforms for Taiwan to earn dignity and respect on the world stage.” — Richard Bush, Bonnie Glaser and Ryan Hass, NPR
Some of those are funnier than others. The idea that a country that is force-vaccinating its population is less authoritarian than a country that is not doing that is actually so ridiculous that it borders on the deranged or outright insane.
But this is actually more anti-war material than you usually see anywhere on a mainstream website, so I guess good job with that, Yahoo!
But while they do include people saying “we really should probably think about whether or not we want to start a nuclear war,” what is lacking is a sober perspective.
Why is Taiwan even an issue?
Why are we even talking about this at all?
Not one single person in this entire media landscape will either:
Outline, in real terms, how occupying Taiwan is in “the interests of America,” or
Point out that no one will give that outline
You end up in a situation where no one even has any idea what we’re actually talking about.
How is it possible that we’ve reached the point where we’re considering a nuclear war over vague “strategic interests” that no one is able to explain in concrete terms?
Furthermore – and I hate to be the one to have to point this out – but things are tough all over.
America and the rest of the West have a lot, lot, lot of problems. We have very real economic, political and social problems that no one is offering any solutions to. So the idea that we’re talking about going to war to protect some fake country on the other side of the globe is simply inexplicable.
If I was allowed to offer a 200-word sound bite for that Yahoo! News article, it would be this:
Taiwan is a part of China, and the reasons the US occupied it originally are no longer relevant. Instead of continuing to support the fantasy of a democratic China under the guise of the myth of Taiwanese nationhood, the United States should open talks about reunification. China will be open to giving wide-ranging concessions in exchange for the opportunity at peaceful reunification, and this will allow the West to clear up various unrelated conflicts with China, including on matters of international trade.
— Andrew Anglin, Hoax Watch
I am happy that some in the media are finally saying that what we are talking about here is a nuclear war. That’s a long way from where we were a couple years ago, when the State Department first started its saber-rattling under Donald Trump. The humiliation in Afghanistan seems to have sobered a few people up.
But the fact that this discussion still remains so very far outside of the real, in the realm of the viciously and confusingly abstract, speaks to the moronic nature of the American mind. These people are literally asking you to believe that every single person in the entire Western world supports the idea of an “independent and democratic Taiwan” being “strategically important to the United States and its allies” even while not one person among this unified chorus is capable of explaining what either of those concepts means.
The basic fact, which anyone who knows the history knows but which no one in the American media is willing to say (and it wouldn’t be printed if they were willing), is that Taiwan was set up as an alternative government to the CCP government of China. The American goal was to foster a “democracy” government in Taiwan, which would eventually rule all of China. To this day, the government of Taiwan officially claims that it is the legitimate government of the entirety of China. This is not a secret, and yet somehow, it remains totally unsaid, and instead we are told that “Taiwan” is some kind of independent country that “China” is trying to invade and conquer.
The fact that Taiwan is not a country, but a piece of China occupied by the United States, does not necessarily mean that we should just give it back to China. But any serious discussion about whether we should or should not give it back to China should start from the point of accurately defining what Taiwan is. Obviously, if it is accurately defined, that would lead a lot of people to grasp the Chinese perspective on the issue, and make China look much less villainous, which is why there is some kind of soft ban on properly defining Taiwan in the media.
I think it would be morally good to simply give Taiwan back to China. But geopolitics are not based around moral goodness, so it makes sense that because America currently maintains control of Taiwan, America would instead negotiate concessions from China as part of the reunification process. But because we live in this fantasy world, we can’t have that discussion, and instead it’s simply “should we go to war to protect Taiwanese independence?” – a stupid and nonsensical question.
America is not a serious country, and its fixation with censorship has ensured that there can never be any form of seriousness injected into any discussion. Instead of talking about actual reality, the media and the political class argue about fantasies with only abstract connection to physical realities.
Look at what Chinese elementary school kids learn…
Here’ we have the red-necktie “Pioneers”, all volunteers, all elementary students (This seems to be fifth grade or so) watching a training film.. VIDEO.
And here we have some first grade students demonstrating their skills in front of the rest of the school in assembly. Note that all students not only learn English, but also get weekly lessons in military warfare, strategy, and operations. VIDEO.
And here are how a Pioneers assembly looks like. These are all first grade students around 6 years old. VIDEO.
In the title, I am spelling it out as clearly as I can. The rest of the world is moving on and forward. While America has turned into a nasty, nasty cesspool.
Here is America today…
The cities are inhabited by zombies. They really are. Video.
Well, not all the cities are inhabited by zombies. You have a bunch of people walking around in “freedom”, “doing their own thing”. Such as this fine upstanding “pillar of the community” here. VIDEO.
Woman raped on train as bystanders did nothing, police say
UPPER DARBY, Pa. (AP) — A woman was raped by a stranger on a commuter train in suburban Philadelphia in the presence of other riders who a police official said “should have done something.”
Superintendent Timothy Bernhardt of the Upper Darby Police Department said officers were called to the 69th Street terminal around 10 p.m. Wednesday after the assault on the westbound train on the Market-Frankford Line.
An employee of the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority who was in the vicinity as the train went past called police to report that “something wasn’t right” with a woman aboard the train, Bernhardt said.
SEPTA police waiting at the next stop found the woman and arrested a man. The woman was taken to a hospital.
Bernhardt called the victim an “unbelievably strong woman” who provided police with a lot of information. She did not know her attacker, he said.
“She’s on the mend,” Bernhardt said. “Hopefully she will get through this.”
The entire episode was captured on surveillance video that showed other people on the train at the time, Bernhardt said.
“There was a lot of people, in my opinion, that should have intervened; somebody should have done something,” Bernhardt said. “It speaks to where we are in society; I mean, who would allow something like that to take place? So it’s troubling.”
Fiston Ngoy, 35, has been charged with rape, aggravated indecent assault and related counts, according to Delaware County court records. Bernhardt said he is known to both SEPTA and Upper Darby police.
Court documents don’t list a defense attorney, and a listed number for him couldn’t be found Saturday.
SEPTA issued a statement calling it a “horrendous criminal act” and urging anyone witnessing such a thing to report it to authorities.
“There were other people on the train who witnessed this horrific act, and it may have been stopped sooner if a rider called 911,” the authority said.
…
It’s called a serious breakdown in society.
MM contributor BoChen speaks…
Quote from pissedlizard on October 12, 2021, 2:44 am
Please listen to this warning. Believe what you will, but it IS a warning - and a message of hope.
Mathematically the odds of you being able to get out of the USA are dwindling by the day. If you are visiting or whatever. Look at the flights. The Neocons in DC are rapidly playing chicken with each other and I am afraid YOU all may get caught up in it.
I am just saying that at any day China and the USA can become enemies, right? MM has written dozens of TRUE articles. So let’s agree to THAT point.
Asians - in America - look at the SEVERE spike in black on Asian crime. This shit is BY DESIGN. Hillary, et.al.
That coupled with a DC - who nobody REALLY knows who is running the show - we THINK Obama - ok. But China/US Relations CAN deteriorate quickly.
And flights - ALLLLLLLL over America - are cancelling flights - slowly at first... BY DESIGN.
What happens when relations pop - and they will - and there are no flights to be had - OUT of America.
Think Afghanistan a few weeks ago.
I warn you as a friend. And I will warn you further. For when it happens - I WILL NOT have this blood on my hands.
And as a friend I offer you this. Earlier I made a blood pact with MY Gods and Goddesses that you will ALWAYS have safe haven while this human body is alive. Always. Period. Any Asian in America that can’t get out and is targeted has safe haven while this human heart beats.
Your enemies will be mine when things go sideways.
You know what insect to look for.
All of this I know to be TRUE.
EMMAA///EMMT
I am an Asian (Chinese) living in America (Dallas, Texas area) and I’ve pretty much resigned to the fact that I’m almost certain to get gas-chambered by the US government in concentration death camps by this time next year… Most (vast majority) of Asians, including so-called “Chinese Americans” are still largely clueless how bad it can get and how fast it can get that bad…
Late 2019 is when total global energy consumption peaked globally, so after we crossed that point of inflection, its now overarchingly not only a “zero-sum game” in terms of the bigly picture, but rather more aptly it has been since CIA released the biovirus upon the world very much a “negative-sum game” where everyone’s pieces of the pie get ever smaller…. and the only way to get ahead or even run in place is to cannibalization….
As the USD is still global reverse currency, US printing to QE infinity means the rest the world is getting harvested and everyone else is getting squeezed that much more all so that Americans can stay at home collecting stimmy or working fake jobs making bank whilsts the rest of the world tightens their effective consumption…
China said NO.
No to Plaza Accord 2.0, No to US appeasement, and No to continuing to prop up the useless eater middle man that is Uncle Sam… Amerikkkan’s are like 5% of the global population but consume like 25% of all the resources…. and China had been a great enabler of this… keeping US inflation at bay for largely the last two or three decades…
No more…
What did yall think the BRI was all about? It is to create the trade routes with the developing countries so that China can one day soon directly trade with them in digital Yuan for raw resources that China needs to power its own domestic consumption instead of making small margins on the side by slaving away for Uncle Sam. This is what “Dual Circulation” is all about, to cut out the middle man… the useless eater turned hostile geopolitical adversary that carpet bombed Wuhan with the CIA biovirus in its opening salvos of a covert and hybrid WWIII…
China’s return blow is to completely fuck up the entire US ‘supply chain’ and e-CONomy for good… No toys for Christmas will be the least of the American people’s concerns….
Meanswhiles, the iSheeple suckers are still saving money to “invest” in their 401k and stonks… and some dumb enough are still depriving themselves (even going in debt) so that they can buy and/or mine more CIAcoins as their supposed long term planning for “generational wealth” lolz
For every iphone that sells for $1000, something like only $12 returns to China as net profit… This is the real reason US strongarm its vassals to ban Huawei… and soon also Xaomi… this is the true purpose of America getting its allies to gang up on China to subvert Chinese technology development and China’s rise…
Speaking of the semiconductor chip shortage, Moores law is dead and so is Dennard scaling… This gives China the time to play catch up whilsts leapfrogging the West in new domains like quantum computing… By the time Taiwan TSMC finishes building those 5nm fabs in Arizona in 2025 the world will again be a vastly different place. China’s MIC2025 goal was to catch up and be completely self sufficient in high end semiconductor supply chain (including EUV and other tooling) by 2025… China spends more money importing chips than it does oil… and the US plan to extent the petrodollar is to do a digital OPEC with semiconductors as the new oil… and tech sanctions as the new chokepoints…
Whether its chips or jet engines or whatever other high tech , China’s goal is to become fully self sufficient so it can make whatever its own citizens need for internal consumption and only trade when necessary with developing countries for the raw resources it doesn’t have…
As China gets rid of the USA middle man, the efficiencies it gains from cutting out the fat overhead will allow it to continue to buy time to develop and scale out new energy solutions… I understand many believe its a lost cause… But one thing is for damn certain, China can no longer afford to keep making and shipping real goods to the US in exchange for cheap paper and fake digital money….
Wonder why Biden is opening the flood gates to massive immigration? Or how its even possible to simultaneously have a so-called “labor shortage” while in a bad jobs-market reports all at the same time? Its because with China cutting US off (its been planned) the US has no choice than to find another way to replace the EROEI Energy Slaves that its lost, (it had originally pinned its hopes on India and Vietnam but that’s not turning out so well either) not to mention the seemingly contradiction can be explained the same way as how you can explain the paradox of still having oil under the ground but yet have it be pointless to extract an energy source with negative EROEI… basically, a lot of the gig worker jobs in US actually pay net negative wages but in desperation the permanent and exponentially growing underclass of Americans are unwittingly reverse-mortgaging away their own cars to pay themselves by essentially converting the accelerated depreciation of their vehicles assets into the illusion of an temporary income source…. seems like the cannibalization is scale-invariant these days…
Compare China to where you live. Are people helping each other out? Working together? Trying to support each other? Or is it a dog-eat-dog world where only the richest control in comfort? Video.
Be the Rufus.
China has come a long way…
Yes it has, and the rest of the world is blinded by the bullshit. Face the facts. Live up to the ideals. Do your part. Be the best that you can be. Help others, make meaningful changes for the good of all. Videohere.
Sure the world is not homogenized. Yet we all have to realize when groups of people are moving in the “right” or positive direction, and where groups of people are moving in the “wrong” or negative direction. It matters not where they are. What matters is what they are doing and why.
What they are doing and why…
The world is changing. It is historic.
The evil and selfish, self centered psychopathic idiots running the West are being displaced, and the rest of the world will no longer tolerate all their shenanigans. Going into outer space might have been the “final last hurrah” for the self-centered billionaire class.
Soon, very soon, a new reality will be realized. I have hope and I am so very optimistic. VIDEO.
And on a positive note…
There’s a lot of beauty out there.
A lot of friends to meet. A lot of things to do. A lot of food to eat, and a lot of memories to make. Don’t wrap yourself in the comfortable blanket of fear. Go out and look around. You might be very pleased with the new friends that you will make. VIDEO.
A fine Chinese woman.
She deserves a nice luncheon, some fine “chit chat”, and a lovely walk.
Bonus。
Be the Rufus. The world is changing. If you act like a cat; be the best that you can be, you will endure, survive and thrive. Be that Rufus. Help others. Make the world a better place. Be the Rufus. Video.
(Sorry about the audio quality.)
Do you want more?
You can find more articles related to this in my latest index; A New Beginning. And in it are elements of the old, some elements regarding the transition, and some elements that look towards the future.
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because I just don’t care to.
Please kindly help me out in this effort. There is a lot of effort that goes into this disclosure. I could use all the financial support that anyone could provide. Thank you.
You all know this. Right? The USA is a shambles. The guy or guys that you thought would be voted in to change things didn’t really do much. The messed up train is still on it’s tracks and it’s still on a collusion course with that very rickety old bridge. You know it. You family knows it. Your co-workers know it. Everyone knows it.
But what about the government?
Are they clueless?
No they are not. They saw the writing on the wall for some time now, and have been ready. Obviously, they could see that elements have been building up for some time, most certainly. And there have been some events that definitely contributed to this situation, but make absolutely no mistake. SHTF is now active and the entire United States is in turmoil.
You are Here…
Though there is some minor debate on how close the USA is to the final pivotal moment. Those in Washington DC think (somehow) that it can be avoided or bypassed. While most of the people are like rats on a sinking ship and lashing out everywhere at everyone.
All you have to do is watch some of the American police shooting videos, or the shoplifting videos, or the crime videos. It’s all out in the open. It’s all brazen. It’s all dangerous. And no one is reporting it. Do I need to post the video after video of African-Americans just going into stores and robbing in broad daylight with no fear of being caught, arrested, apprehended or jailed. It’s a complete breakdown of society.
Like this man. He just walks into the pharmacy, picks out the narcotic drugs and walks out with them. Video HERE.
Yup.
We’re in the shit.
From Hal Turner. For what ever it is worth, it is something to ponder and think about. But nothing to get all hot and bothered about. The Federal government has all sorts of plans on how to handle things when one condition or the other manifests. Edited to fit this venue and all credit to the author.
And please don’t freak out.
Sheech!
U.S. Treasury Plan If Economic Collapse: “Force Majeure,” Paratroopers to Fed Res. Banks, “De-Monetize” U.S. Dollar
Did you know the United States of America actually has a PLAN in the event they can no longer service their debt? They do! Adopted it back in the early 2000’s. Meet the “6900 Protocols.”
With all the hoopla taking place nowadays, our national government being completely ILLEGITIMATE via a fraudulent and stolen election, and hyper-inflation creeping just around the corner, it might be worth a minute or two to learn what our “trusted public servants” have planned . . . for us . . . . after THEY have Bankrupted the nation.
Protocols For Economic Collapse In America By Al Martin 2-23-2008
And this is how the U.S. Treasury would handle an economic collapse. It’s called the 6900 series of protocols. It would start with the Secretary of the Treasury declaring a force majeure, preventing the United States of America from servicing its debt.
This, of course, would immediately be interpreted by the marketplaces as a de facto repudiation of U.S. debt.
They even know precisely WHAT TIME they would make such a declaration: 11:38 AM eastern U.S. Time. That’s because by 11:38 AM ET, markets in Asia and Europe will be closed, leaving only US markets operating for a few more hours.
A few seconds after that announcement was made, all United States markets, both equities debt and commodities i.e., stock, bonds, commodities, that have trading limits or permissible daily limits would all be limit-offered with pools. Limit-offered means that there are more sellers at the limit i.e., limit down, than there are buyers.
So-called ‘pools’ would immediately begin to form, probably a thousand contracts every few minutes. ‘Limit-offered with pools’ – this is trader language. Pools to sell 2,000 lots, 3,000 lots. That means, the number of sellers over and above the available buyers at the limit- offered price. That would begin to build.
By 1:00, the news would begin to sink in because it would take awhile before panic selling would arise from the public. This news is being released at lunch hour.
Most of the American people initially would not even understand the horror of the news. You would see professional selling first, and as that professional selling intensified over the afternoon, the SEC, the CFTC, NASDAQ, and various market regulatory authorities would begin to institute certain emergency market protocols. This would be the installation of the so-called ‘declaration of fast market conditions,’ for instance; the declaration of ‘no more stop orders,’ the declaration of ‘fill at any price,’ etc. in a desperate bid to maintain liquidity.
That first day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and related indices on a percentage basis would lose about 20%-30% of their value by the close of business that day. The real impact would come overnight when the American people found out what this was all about when it was explained to them.
The SEC and various regulatory entities have anticipated the market’s decline, hour by hour and they will be closely watching every move (down) the markets make. It is widely expected that “circuit breakers” will be triggered within an hour, then triggered again, until the market suspends trading for the rest of that day.
When Japan’s markets open the next day – we will call this “Day 2” – what would happen is almost instant collapse. At 7:30 a.m. EDT, the Tokyo markets would open, and no price would be affixed for probably three or four hours into the session due to the avalanche of selling.
Once prices were established, the government of Japan would close all of its financial markets.
Europe would not even open. All European governments would close all capital exchanges.
When the U.S. goes down, everything around the world in matters financial, goes with us.
On that second day, here in the US, Army Forces would be dropped in via parachute to the cities where the twelve Federal Reserve district banks are located.
The reason they would be brought in by parachute is there won’t be enough time to do this via driving. Those troops would HAVE to be in-place around the twelve federal reserve banks, to protect the plexi-glass pallets of currency in their vault stacked to the ceiling and whatever gold is also inside.
The origin of these U.S. Treasury protocols comes from the Department of Defense (DoD). The DoD has contingency plans for a variety of scenarios. Those scenarios would include, obviously, military collapse, World War III, and its aftermath. What we’re talking about now is aftermath — how the aftermath of the U.S. being unable to service its debt, would be handled.
One does not necessarily know how the events would transpire that would cause the collapse, whether it’s military collapse or economic collapse. In World War III, it would become obvious — when the mushroom clouds started to appear over cities.
Economic collapse scenarios were always premised on the basis of a US declaration of force majeure on debt service. It’s a very extensive scenario.
The scenarios are all together, i.e., military, economic, political and social, complete destabilization leading to collapse.
Then they break down individual scenarios. In the economic collapse scenario, the starting point would be the United States Treasury declaring a force majeure on debt service, which is de facto repudiation, and that’s how it would be interpreted by the world’s capital marketplaces. Then the scenario goes on from there.
The US Treasury would obviously declare a force majeure after the European markets had closed. In other words, they had gone out for the day, which means 11:38 a.m. EDT, our time. They’d wait until the European markets closed, and the US markets had been open for a couple of hours. That’s when they’d determine how to begin the process of unwinding or controlling the collapse to the best extent possible, mainly because they know that the greatest hedge pressure would be people seeking to use other markets to hedge their long exposure in the United States and that the US would be the biggest seller in all the rest of the world’s markets.
Therefore you would want to declare the force majeure when the rest of the world’s markets closed. (catch’em off guard! I like it-its just so American.) The declaration of force majeure would be precipitated by the declaration that the United States is no longer able to service its debt. That’s pretty simple.
Who makes that decision? The Treasury Department. The President does not make that decision. The Secretary of the Treasury does. He has that authority.
You might ask — wouldn’t he have his arm twisted not to do that? The answer is that if there isn’t any money left to service the debt, it doesn’t make any difference what the current regime might want to do.
The day of reckoning is now coming. What has happened in the interim, from 2001 to present, is dynamic, global economic deterioration. The economic deterioration visited upon the United States by rampant deficit spending enacted by Congress is not a localized event. It is, in fact, global. We have a planet now that is sinking into a sea of red ink.
Back around the year 2008, the United States was consuming about 80% of the entire world’s savings to finance its debt. At some point after 2008, the US began to need MORE than the entire world had to lend. Enter the U.S. Federal Reserve, monetizing debt by entering digits into a computer account. PRESTO! Money created out of thin air to buy Treasury Bonds!
Bringing this problem to a head is the issue of the central banks of Germany, Japan, and Saudi Arabia; they are no longer the powerhouses they used to be. Their reserves have now been substantially depleted. They can, therefore, no longer hide the fact that they own a certain number, likely in the trillions of dollars, of U.S. Treasury debt that isn’t being serviced, because they can’t hide it through bookkeeping tricks anymore; because their reserves are so depleted.
This is why not too long ago, someone put the arm on Great Britain and demanded payment in Gold Bullion. It was all very hush hush, but readers of the Hal Turner Radio Show web site did get the information quickly.
Very serious amounts of Gold/Silver Bullion and cash money was abruptly removed from the United Kingdom on 13 April 2021, and shipped to Doha, Qatar without explanation.
Authorities in London did a rolling road block along the motorway to allow the tremendous shipment of bullion and cash to get through! Three (3) armored bullion trucks, 4 unmarked police cruisers, 6 marked police cars and a police helicopter was following in the sky. (Story HERE)
Someone is putting demands on western banks because they see the US money is in gigantic trouble. Someone is saying to the US…
"You've got to start servicing this debt because we, and foreign central banks, are in nations - European and Asian - whose reserves are now nearly exhausted. We no longer trust you to pay the debt, we want Gold. Now."
Foreign Central banks can no longer make it appear that the U.S. debt is being serviced because those foreign central banks own reserves are so substantively depleted. Therefore the US and the west in general, are being told they must begin to cover this debt. If the US cannot, or will not, then, at some point, people in banking around the world will have to publicly admit in order to save their own necks — that THEY were the end buyers of a lot of stealth debt, a lot of debt that the U.S. Treasury issued illegally and has never serviced. That would then expose the whole cabal.
The process of unraveling has already begun because of ever-spiraling budget deficits.
The U.S., even in its overt policies (now they're overt political, economic, social and military policies) is generating a $2 TRILLION-plus deficit per year.
There isn't enough money on the entire planet to lend such amounts to the US.
Because foreign central banks are so depleted from buying other US debt, they can’t refinance the stealth debt by issuing more stealth debt anymore. Nor can they bleed money out of the system like they could in the 1980s. There is no mechanism that they can use anymore to hide expansion of debt that could be used to service said stealth debt, and they are, frankly, running out of assets that they can steal from the American people.
So the proverbial day of reckoning is coming.
Back in 2008, David Walker, US Comptroller General and chief of the GAO has said that the United States would no longer be able to service its debt beyond 2009.
Yet here we are, now, in 2021.
How could that be? Well, as stated earlier, the federal reserve is monetizing US debt. The fed is entering digits into an account on their computer system, then using that account to “buy” U.S. Treasury Notes. Money out of thin air.
What does that mean?
The key is in what Walker meant when he says the debt can no longer be serviced. It simply meant the United States would no longer be able to pay even the interest on its debts because it needs more than the planet has available to lend to them.
Therefore, if the planet can no longer generate any more liquidity to lend to the United States, one of three things have to happen:
A
There has to be a sudden and dramatic reduction in federal spending. There are only two places that can come from. There would have to be an immediate slashing of defense spending probably by 65-75% OR; there would have to be an immediate cut in all social programs: Welfare, Food Stamps, Social Security and all the rest.
B
The other option, 6900 B, is a dramatic increase in the rate of federal income taxation from the current nominal rate of 28% to 65%-85%, which is what the Treasury Department estimated would be required post-2009 to provide the U.S. Treasury with sufficient revenues to continue to service debt, OR;
C
The third option, 6900 C, becomes the declaration of a force majeure on credit service of U.S. Treasury debt by the United States Treasury, which is tantamount to, and would be accurately construed as, de facto debt repudiation by the United States of America.
…
Day One. When that day comes, in other words, when the U.S. Treasury declares a force majeure on debt, it wouldn’t be broadcast on mainstream media. There’s no sense because the American people don’t even understand what it means. The announcement would actually be put on the Federal Reserve wire system, which would, of course, immediately be picked up by all media outlets anyway.
The United States would, in order to accommodate global electronic trading, attempt to open the market on the second day, which they would do, regardless of price, just to maintain some liquidity.
At the end of Day Two, the Dow Jones and related indices, would have lost two thirds of their value, and prices would be set accordingly.
On Day Three, the New York Stock Exchange, the SEC and other related agencies would recommend to the United States Treasury and the Federal Reserve that all markets be closed. That would be on the morning of Day Three.
At Eleven AM EDT, the Federal Reserve would then order all domestic banks closed.
At 9:00 PM EDT on Day Three, the President of the United States would declare a state of martial law. All financial transactions would come to an end. The Treasury would act to formally de-monetize the U.S. dollar and declare it worthless.
This would be totally unprecedented. In the past, collapses have been temporary and have been brought back up. But what we’re talking about now is the end.
These protocols that I’m referring to aren’t even all that secret. They were publicly available all through the Clinton era. These are Treasury protocols that were instituted mostly in the late 1970s when the Treasury and Federal Reserve began to feel that it was important to have an emergency-collapse protocol in place.
What precipitated the timing of this was the inflationary spiral of the mid-late 1970s, during Richard Nixon /Gerald Ford terms up to that point. The U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve were both concerned that this inflationary spiral, which was occurring not only domestically but globally, might lead to a global, uncontrollable hyper-inflation that the Federal Reserve or major central banks could not stop by traditional means, i.e., by raising interest rates and contracting money supply.
There was also the recognition, of course, that global central reserve bank bullion inventories had been so depleted over the previous 30 years that any re-institution of a species currency, even on a temporary basis, and even within a regional or individual nation-state basis, was no longer possible.
This is an analogy. In a military scenario, it’s like the President of the United States pushing the final red button — the commit button. The Treasury Secretary of the United States has a similar mechanism. It’s called the yellow button, the commit button. The Secretary of Defense has the same system. This is what happens. Computer programs start to institute these protocols.
Imagine the complexity of trying the manage all this. I think it’s going to happen all simultaneously. There are hundreds of different agencies involved, both domestically and internationally.
In order to maintain liquidity for as long as possible, it has to be extremely well-coordinated, and there must be existing collapse protocols that can be used.
The reason I was familiar with them was because I used to see the U.S. Treasury 6900 Series Collapse Protocol, 6903, 6904 there’ll be A, B, and so on which keyed in to the Department of Defense to be incorporated within the Department of Defense’s own World War III scenario and various types of military/ political/ social instability/ war/ pestilence, chaos, etc. scenarios.
All federal agencies had individual collapse protocols that ultimately got coordinated through the Department of Defense. Obviously, the Department of Defense would be the ultimate coordinator because it would need to have special forces available, on a stand-by basis, ready, that could quickly parachute into areas all over the country, into the cities particularly, to secure federal properties and assets.
And that’s literally how it would begin. By the end of the third day, it would be all over — a state of martial law. We’re not talking about war, now; this is just economic collapse.
There’s no military implication here, no political, no social implication or policy directive thereunto. This is strictly economic collapse.
By the end of Day Three, effectively, all banks in the world will be shut down, all paper currencies will become valueless. Martial law would be declared.
There would be no continuing transactions, at least for a period of time, of commodities. All providers of fuels and foods would be shut down automatically.
They have this planned in extremely great detail too. For instance, the U.S. Department of Defense Special 117th Assault Unit would parachute in to seize control of the cattle yards in Oklahoma City. This is how well it’s planned. In other words, economic collapse would automatically involve expansive military action and control.
By the end of the third day, when you no longer have a domestic medium of exchange, you have to have secured food and fuel stocks. You’ve got to have troops that have secured distribution points where there is food and fuel stocks, warehouses, tanks, etc. Otherwise people are just going to go get them, and the people have to know that if they try to go break into that store and steal that loaf of bread, they’re going to be shot.
The scaling-circle scenarios
Protocols for environmental disasters are called ‘scaling-circle scenarios.’ ‘Scaling circles’ is a Department of Defense euphemism. It’s also used in FEMA, OEM and other emergency management services.
In environmental catastrophes, which are going to become national or global, it’s got to start someplace. It’s going to start in one very small, specific area. Therefore what happens is that the immediate force containment is the greatest in the first circle, to try to contain the spread of the disaster and keep it within that circle-not allowing it into circle 2.
The environmental problem, to whatever extent it’s possible, before it spreads, will be neutralized or mitigated, in order to keep that catastrophe within that circle, or, if it is likely that it is to escape that circle, to attack whatever it is in such a fashion as to mitigate its strength and its ability to contaminate or otherwise affect other areas.
In the case of earthquakes, for instance, affecting the west coast, beginning at Mt. Rainier and moving southward — that’s a different type of scenario. That does not include as much Department of Defense involvement. It includes separate protocols, wherein mostly FEMA and OEM act as the senior coordinating agencies between municipal, county and state disaster and containment, which is called Disaster and Containment Units. Federal troops would only be brought in for the purposes of maintaining control.
In a military or economic collapse situation, National Guard units would provide any spare help they could in combating whatever the problem is. Federal troops would be used in order to have the specific authority simply to shoot anyone.
There are plans for all sorts of scenarios. The economic-disaster scenario is the one I always found the most intriguing because it is the one that is least understood by the American people.
Military control would be necessary when lines begin to form at the banks, people trying to access their money. But that wasn’t even anticipated as a big problem. Lines would form at the banks, but it was not even envisioned until sometime on Day Three because the American people wouldn’t get it. It would be announced that the stock markets are down 2000 or 3000 points, and since we’ve always been taught they’ll come back, the people would still be buying stocks.
You could count on everybody remaining in ignorance all the way down because the American people have never been taught Economics 101. The American people wouldn’t realize the full extent of it until the markets were closed on the third day, or until the time when they went down to cash a check and the bank was closed with soldiers out in front. Then they would go down and see the gas station’s closed. They see the local supermarket has been shuttered, and there’s federal troops in front of it. Then they might begin to catch on.
And remember — it’s not just federal troops. In emergency-collapse protocols, even before the declaration of a formal state of emergency or a state of martial law, the local military authorities within any given county or jurisdiction have the ability to essentially militarize anyone, that is, any civilian. This would be more than just deputizing civilians. It’s federal. In other words, they would have the ability to militarize and give military authority to a civilian force. This would include not only police and the sheriffs and state police, but all local law enforcement that exists below the state level would be immediately militarized. They wouldn’t take just anybody like they did in Iraq. It would be like the military when they call for volunteers.
In other words, this is how it would unfold over three days, but, in fact, very few Americans would know what to do about it or how to take any precautions. They wouldn’t have a clue because they don’t understand enough about economics to know what is happening. So that’s what it is — Economic Armageddon.
Conclusion
In conclusion, since there is very little the people of the United States can do to protect themselves. We’re not going to make any suggestions of how to protect yourselves because there’s very little you can do.
We could tell you to go out and buy gold coins and bury them in the coffee can in the back yard and go to your nearest survivalist store, but, frankly, that’s useless. In the last analysis, it’s a lot of hype. There is very little the average US citizen could do.
Here’s an interesting and humorous aside. A couple of years ago, Hormel Foods, which makes Spam, announced that in the last six months there have been record sales of Spam in the United States the survivalists’ food of choice. After all, they pride themselves on the fact, as the spokesman for Hormel said, “It is the only food product you can buy with an expiration that’s 50 years.”
When everything goes to hell, when all that man has created has turned to dust again, the final legacy is going to be Spam. It will be the last surviving item — when the anthropologists of 20 thousand years from now are digging sites and they see these enormous mountains of unopened cans of Spam-still unspoiled and ready to eat. They’ll have monuments to the past, out of Spam. (-Spam is the true definition of DEAD FOOD-it never goes bad)
Furthermore, on Washington Journal they were talking about how FEMA has recommended to the Office of Homeland Security to have increased restrictions regarding citizen hoarding of long-term food and fuel supplies. That’s pretty sinister too.
What they’re talking about is the purchase of long-term so-called stores of survival food. FEMA was talking about some sort of restriction preventing people from accumulating food stores; putting it simply, that’s what it means. The second point was to increase restrictions that already exist.
FEMA was recommending even tighter restrictions on citizens building their own private property underground storage tanks for the purposes of long-term storage of fuel. The real intent of this is is threefold: a) to restrict citizens’ ability to hoard food; b) restrict citizens’ ability to hoard long-term storage of fuel; c) the forced identification of citizens to reveal food and fuel stocks they may be hoarding.
And that, in my opinion, is the real essence. The government wanted this kept secret – having the FEMA supply restrictions angle put into the equation, because they knew how people would interpret it.
They have tried to use environmental legislation to restrict people’s ability to build fuel storage facilities on their own property — to get around what the true intent of that was.
But the bigger picture is that if you start to limit citizens’ ability to hoard fuel and food and shake them up by potential forced identification of gold holdings or forced redemption.
In other words, what you don’t want is citizens who have the ability to store a lot of food and fuel and to own gold because they would be able to resist state control in the future.
The feds need to have every citizen on a rationing card to control the civilian population. You can’t have citizens out there hoarding food and fuel because then people can say to government, “I ain’t taking a rationing card, baby, with my national ID card. I don’t have to. You can’t control me through food and fuel and worthless paper currency.”
I used to make fun of these people. But now, things have come full circle on this debate. The pattern is becoming increasingly clear. So is the future.
In fact, I would believe that those of the survivalist mentality (the food, fuel, the gold coins in the coffee can in the back yard) . . . people who think that way will be ultimately vindicated.
People should quit making fun of them because they would be vindicated – even though they were all burned out, twenty-dollared to death, buying books and tapes, and discredited by mainstream media.
It may sound like a hollow victory, but it won’t be a hollow victory for them – them that’s got the Spam…
Attribution and Conclusion
The majority of this article was written long ago, in 2008, by a guy named Al Martin.It was forwarded to me by a visitor to the Hal Turner web site.
I tweaked the numbers to make them more current, and added the info about the federal reserve monetizing the debt so as to afford an answer to anyone wondering how, if this was all slated to collapse in 2009, we're still here?
It brings many frightening realities to the forefront because these days, what's taking place in matters financial with our federal government, is absolutely off the rails. They're not just spending a little more than they take in via taxes, their spending almost DOUBLE what they take in in taxes.
Let me ask you, how much is the currency of a Bankrupt nation actually worth?
The very simple takeaway from this article is this: Have Emergency Food, Water, Medicine, and other supplies to tie you over for a few months, minimum.
If/When you hear the phrase "FORCE MAJEURE" - you will have only HOURS to get to the supermarket, buy as much food as you can with whatever cash or credit you have left, and haul ass home to pack and head to your bugout location, then move out fast.
Bear in mind too, the banks will get word of this before the rest of us. They may cut off all credit cards before the public is event TOLD of a force majeure. That would mean you could only buy more food with cash. Got enough cash at home to do that?
Once it all goes to hell, and money (as we know it) is "de-monetized" everyone is fucked; except the people who put their cash into something ELSE which is not cash. No, I don't mean gold or silver because government will try to get their filthy hands on all of that. Something with intrinsic value (it has its value within itself). Things like land/real estate, precious gems, food supplies, fuel. Anything that will be useful to you and holds its value in itself.
But for God's sake, don't just sit around and do nothing. Prepare because when this hits, it will strike like a lightning bolt out of the blue.
The masses who are asses have no idea such a thing CAN EVEN HAPPEN, never mind happen to them. When stores all have to close because there is no longer any monetary means of commerce, what do you think the savages in the cities are going to do? Maybe "Yo man, gimme all yo shit, Cracka, befo I bust a cap in yo ass"
Yes, it will be that simple. So bug out before the savages figure out what's going on because the cities and urban areas will descend into violent chaos very VERY fast.
Then remember, under our system of Government, it is CONGRESS that holds the purse strings. No President can borrow or spend a single cent, unless CONGRESS authorized it. All that debt which is collapsing our country, wrecking our currency, was done to you by CONGRESS. So if you see any of those scumbags on the street, you'll know what to do.
MM’s Conclusions and opinion
It might happen. It might not happen. But as crazy as the United States government is, I am confident that they have plans on how to handle whatever events transpire. So when these plans start to unwind, don’t worry too much about it. It’s just a natural progression that the officials do when checking off the boxes on their long lists.
Don’t freak out.
Just expect it to happen sooner or later. My guess is in the next two years.
Do you want more?
You can find more articles related to this in my latest index; A New Beginning. And in it are elements of the old, some elements regarding the transition, and some elements that look towards the future.
You’ll not
find any big banners or popups here talking about cookies and privacy
notices. There are no ads on this site (aside from the hosting ads – a
necessary evil). Functionally and fundamentally, I just don’t make money
off of this blog. It is NOT monetized. Finally, I don’t track you
because I just don’t care to.
Please kindly help me out in this effort. There is a lot of effort that goes into this disclosure. I could use all the financial support that anyone could provide. Thank you.
Well, well. Here’s some thing for thought. What? You didn’t think that the United States couldn’t be contained, did you?
I struggle to understand people like Cohen (and Blinken and Pompeo and Albright and the rest of them). I don't think pathologizing them as psychopaths or sociopaths is definitive. Simply evil comes closer. And yet we let them rule us.
-Posted by: NoOneYouKnow | Apr 14 2021 19:26 utc | 2
.
Indeed, everything on the “news”, almost without exception, is about how America is doing this to “contain China”, and doing that “to sanction Iran”, and doing this other such thing to “contain Russian actions”. You read this automatically, and you automatically get this idea in the back of your mind that…
.
America is out of control.
It is everywhere doing everything.
America is super powerful.
No one dares fight back.
.
And that is only because America controls the “news” media over most of the Western world, and if you read, speak or think in English, your thoughts are being manipulated.
But,you know, don’t you think that it is pretty fucking sick for the United States to try to contain anyone? I mean, that’s what “freedom” and “liberty” is supposed to be all about. It’s supposed to be a “live and let live”, and only fight at the very last possible moment when someone gets up in your face…
Instead, the US is out in everyone else’s face and “laying down the law”.
Here’s The 20-Point Plan For How Russia Could Contain The US
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov’s dramatic declaration that his country “will pursue the policy of active containment of the US on all fronts” if American pressure on Russia doesn’t soon end inspired a unique 20-point plan for what this could look like in practice.
Russia’s Anti-American Containment Policy
Russia finally appears to be serious about “decoupling” from the West after over half a decade of its well-intended and passionate efforts to enter into a rapprochement with it following the onset of the Ukrainian Crisis.
This event was a game-changer which would push Russia to accelerate its foreign policy diversification strategy towards non-Western countries, especially those in the Global South.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov is evidently very serious about this after dramatically declaring in February 2021 that his country “will pursue the policy of active containment of the US on all fronts” if American pressure on Russia doesn’t soon end.
He promised to [1] prevent foreign meddling in his country’s democratic processes, [2] promote multipolarity across the world, and [3] impose counter-sanctions on the US.
Markov’s 10 Euro-Centric Proposals
Prior to Ryabkov’s policy announcement, Russian expert Sergey Markov predicted ten ways in which his country could respond to more EU sanctions against it. As Google Translated into English from his original Facebook post and slightly edited for clarity, these are:
“1. Russia may recognize the DPR and the LPR and accelerate their integration into Russia;
2. Russia may impose strict sanctions in the economy against the EU;
3. Russia may cease to consider the interests of Europe in Syria and Libya;
4. Russia may impose strict restrictions on the work of Russian-speaking media that are supported by the EU;
5. Russia may limit the work of NGOs, with which the EU tries to influence Russian public opinion;
6. Russia may tighten the position regarding the Russophobic regime in Ukraine and start working on its elimination and replacement with a pro-Russian government;
7. Russia may switch its economic projects from the EU to other countries, especially the East;
8. Russia may significantly increase its military resources in the Kaliningrad region and other regions close to the EU;
9. Russia may begin to react significantly more strictly to the Russophobic policies of EU countries such as Poland, the Baltic countries, Romania;
10. Russia may dramatically reduce consultations with France and Germany on important global strategic issues. This will reduce the impact of France and Germany in the world.”
Korybko’s 10 Non-Western Proposals
I regard all ten of his proposals as viable options.
However, you have to understand and believe that they are (never the less) quite Euro-centric and reactionary.
For that reason, here are ten non-Western ones that could prospectively be paired with Markov’s and pursued even in the event that the West temporarily stops provoking Russia:
1. Rigorously implement “DemocraticSecurity” at home to safeguard Russia’s domestic political processes in accordance with Ryabkov’s vision;
2. Thoroughly articulate the unofficial national ideology of multipolarity and actively promote these views abroad through foreign policy & civil society outreaches, including through academia and the media;
3. Export bespoke “Democratic Security” solutions to at-risk Global South states modeled off of the CentralAfricanRepublic, Congo Republic, and Togo precedents to help defend others from US HybridWar threats;
4. Double down on “military diplomacy” with China through increased cutting-edge arms sales and joint military drills in order to send a message of unwavering security solidarity with the People’s Republic;
6. Prioritize progress on the N-CPEC+/RuPak Corridor in order to fulfill President Putin’s envisioned Arctic-Indian Ocean corridor that he first publicly proposed in October 2019 while speaking at the Valdai Club;
7. Ensure that Azerbaijani President Aliyev’s six-country regional integration platform is a success in turning the South Caucasus into the zone of geostrategic convergence between Russia, Iran, and Turkey;
8. Bring together steps 4-7 to ultimately create an expanded Golden Ring in the Eurasian Heartland which would function as the center of gravity for the emerging Multipolar World Order;
9. Continue practicing “vaccine diplomacy” to creatively establish strategic inroads in non-traditional partners that could then be courted to contribute to the collective cause of multipolarity;
Ryabkov’s official announcement that Russia is seriously countenancing the creation of an anti-American containment strategy proves that the Kremlin is finally fed up with the West’s games.
Markov’s prior ten proposals for how his country could react to the potential EU-initiated worsening of bilateral relations are thought-provoking and deserve to be considered.
However thy are nevertheless Euro-centric and reactionary.
The addition of these other points, which are non-Western in focus can be added to the mix. As such they can be proactively undertaken even without Brussels taking the first step by sanctioning Russia.
Taken together, this 20-point containment strategy should hopefully give Russian decision makers a better understanding of the full range of options available to them.
They probably won’t implement every proposal, but it’s likely that at least some of them will see the light of day, though it might still take time for their effects to be felt as would be the case with my long-term policy suggestions.
Comments
Is the greater public ever going to get a clear view of the difference behind the "rules based order" of the West (we own the money system and make the rules) and the negotiated International law based order?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 20 2021 17:05 utc | 4
You know, most American don’t have a clue to what is going on in Russia. it’s the same thing about China. It’s been a near non-stop hate-fest against Shina for the last five years, and yet the American (and Western) readership still hasn’t a clue as to anything. It’s all the same old nonsense.
And they are all falling for it. It’s like this…
Well…
These other nations are fed up.
They are linking together. They are investing time and money and doing so with very little “fan fare” and publicity. You might read about one thing or the others in your travels of daily “news” reading. But that’s about it. You read about a rail line in Pakistan, and an oil pipeline in the Black Sea. But since most people don’t know geography or history they have no context to put everything into context.
Russia has stopping playing games.
China has stopped playing games.
They have set things up for a big “spring loaded” global powers reset, and are just waiting for the USA-led Western powers to walk into the trap.
Do you want more?
I have more posts in my “International America and the rest of the world” index here…
You’ll not find any big banners or popups here talking about cookies and privacy notices. There are no ads on this site (aside from the hosting ads – a necessary evil). Functionally and fundamentally, I just don’t make money off of this blog. It is NOT monetized. Finally, I don’t track you because I just don’t care to.
A soft landing for America 20 years from now? Don’t bet on it. The demise of the United States as the global superpower could come far more quickly than anyone imagines. If Washington is dreaming of 2040 or 2050 as the end of the American Century, a more realistic assessment of domestic and global trends suggests that by 2025, it could all be over except for the shouting.
The screaming.
The writhing, and…
…the dying.
Despite the aura of omnipotence most empires project, a look at their history should remind us that they are fragile organisms. So delicate is their ecology of power that, when things start to go truly bad, empires regularly unravel with unholy speed.
It’s typically a long, long, looonnnggg build up.
And then, something snaps.
And it all unravels…
Like an over-wound spring.
We know this from history: just a year for Portugal, two years for the Soviet Union, eight years for France, 11 years for the Ottomans, 17 years for Great Britain, and, in all likelihood quite soon for the United States, ending within the next few years.
It’s all going to go “belly up”…
Economic (Health of the Economy)
Social (Social unrest, and a collapse of norms.)
Military (Attempts at creating large wars.)
Industrial (Jump starting the manufacturing base.)
Technology (Investments in R&D, NPD and innovation.)
Financial (Value of the USD)
The following is from the Kuntsler Blog also known as “Cluster-fuck nation”. He usually have some nice and pointed points, but this is a crown jewel. In this observation he talks about the major miscalculation(s) in economic policy inside the Washington DC beltway and how it will manifest in “heartland America” when the entire “deck of cards” come tumbling down.
This is a full reprint, all credit to the author. Reprinted to fit this venue with only minor editing as necessary.
We will start with this article, and the follow up with a second one, back to back…
Clusterfuck Nation
For your reading pleasure Mondays and Fridays
A nation literally falling apart certainly might want to Build Back Better, but it also might want to consider building back differently, consistent with the signals that reality is sending to humankind these days.
For instance, the signals that the old industrial paradigm is coming to an end, and that the furnishings and accessories of it may not be the ones that humankind actually requires going forward.
Alas, the psychology of previous investment tends to dictate that societies pound their capital — if they still have any —down a rat-hole in the vain and desperate attempt to keep old rackets going.
And this is the essence of Mr. Biden’s infrastructure bill; a colossal confection of government over-reach with its thin cake layers, cloyingly thick “social justice” frosting, and its giant cherry-on-top of drawing on “capital” that doesn’t exist.
The main racket is the ongoing effort to replace a transactional economy of individual enterprise with the managerial state (that attempts to allocate all resources and direct markets).
We’ve seen that movie before.
It beats a path directly to totalitarian tyranny, and that is already sickeningly visible in the pre-production activities for the new movie.
With social media assisting government to set up total control of its citizens lives — actually copying the techniques already operating in China.
Some pieces of the bill are just plain tragic.
Like the effort to prop up mass motoring by switching out electric cars for the old gasoline-powered cars that have ruled the land for a century.
It’s an appealing fantasy, of course…
…but the electric car thing ain’t a’gonna happen.
Not at the scale envisioned, not unless the government plans to buy the electric cars and give them away to everybody, and that’s rather a stretch.
First, the whole mass motoring racket is falling apart more on its financial model than on whether the cars move by gasoline or electricity.
Americans are used to buying cars on installment loans, and, with the middle-class withering away, there are ever-fewer credit-worthy borrowers for those loans (for ever more expensive cars).
Soon, as the debt markets wobble, there will also be even less hallucinated capital (“money”) to loan out to this shrinking pool of borrowers.
Second, the decrepit US electric grid can’t handle the charging needs of such a gigantic electric car fleet (and fixing the grid alone would be a trillion-dollar project).
Third, the manufacturing of electric cars depends on scarce rare mineral resources that are not readily available in the US, but controlled by foreign nations.
Fourth, car-making utterly depends on far-flung international supply lines for parts and electronics.
This is occurring at a time when the integrated global economy is cracking up under the strain of desperate competition for dwindling resources and the ill-will generated by that.
More… There are yet more kinks in the electric car scheme but those are enough.
MM Comments.
Of course he's talking about the Untied States. The rest of the world doesn't really have this problem. In China, for instance, most public transportation is electric, as is a sizable portion of the private automobile market.
Of course, this whole initiative is in the service of preserving a set of living arrangements that is going obsolete…
… namely, suburbia.
The previous investment represented by all the housing subdivisions, commercial highway strips, malls, office parks, and super-highways pretty much drove the American economy since the Second World War.
It’s understandable that we would be desperate to keep it all running.
As well as fix the pieces that are falling apart, because it’s where we put most of our national wealth.
It’s the whole American Dream in one nifty package.
And, it sure seemed like a good idea at the time, in such a big country, with so much cheap land, and all that oil.
But now things have changed and reality is sending us clear signals that we have to live differently.
The effort to oppose reality is apt to be ruinous for us.
A thumping sense of triumph attended the roll-out of the Build Back Better infrastructure bill…
… at least on the Democrats’ side, especially with all the chocolate Easter eggs for “social justice”…
…lodged in the $1.9 trillion basket.
I imagine it will mark the Biden regime’s high point of esprit.
By the time Congress churns through it all, the financial markets will be sending florid distress signals of deepening instability…
And, with Covid lockdowns ending (or even if they resume), warm weather will bring out people angry about one thing or another into the streets.
And a number of pending legal matters — the Derek Chauvin verdict, the Durham investigation, the Hunter Biden case at DOJ, and perhaps the burgeoning and rather sinister new Matt Gaetz melodrama…
… will stir the pot that the American zeitgeist is brewing in.
With plumes of chaos wafting over the land.
By fall, Build Back Better might transmogrify into the ominous question: build back anything?
Clusterfuck Nation
For your reading pleasure Mondays and Fridays
The people pretending to run the world’s financial affairs do.
The more layers of abstract game-playing they add to the existing armatures of unreality they’ve already constructed…
…the more certain it becomes that they will blow up all the support systems…
…support systems of a sunsetting hyper-tech economy that now has no safe lane to continue running in.
Virtually all the big nations are doing this now in desperation.
This is because they don’t understand that the hyper-tech economy is hostage to the deteriorating economics of energy.
Basically fossil fuels, and oil especially.
The macro mega-system can’t grow anymore.
We’re now in the de-growth phase of a dynamic that pulsates through history, as everything in the universe pulsates.
We attempted to compensate for de-growth with debt, borrowing from the future.
But debt only works in the youthful growth phases of economic pulsation, when the prospect of being paid back is statistically favorable.
Now in the elder de-growth phase, the prospect of paying back debts, or even servicing the interest, is statistically dismal.
The amount of racked-up debt worldwide has entered the realm of the laughable.
So, the roughly twenty-year experiment in Central Bank credit magic, as a replacement for true capital formation, has come to its grievous end.
Hence, America under the pretend leadership of Joe Biden ventures into the final act of this melodrama, which will end badly and probably pretty quickly.
They are about to call in the financial four horsemen of apocalypse:
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT),
A “command” economy,
Universal Basic Income (UBI, “helicopter” money for the people), and
the “Build Back Better” infrastructure scheme.
MMT
MMT is the idea that a nation which claims a monopoly on issuing money can “create” new money ad infinitum with no negative consequences.
That is, we can “lend” ourselves money (borrow it into existence) without having to worry about paying it back.
The theory caught on only because that’s what we’ve done for two decades and, so far, it hasn’t destroyed the banking system…
…though debt turned exponential, which is to say ruinous, only recently…
… so we won’t have to stand by long to see how this experiment works out.
Note this: MMT completes the divorce between productive activity and capital formation, that is, prosperity without wealth.
A “command” economy
A “command” economy means that government increasingly attempts to take over economic enterprise.
It does so to replace x-million individual economic choices of freely-acting people in a society with bureaucratic central planning.
MM Comments.
It is usually a complete and absolute failure. The sole lone exception is China, and it really isn't a "command" economy at all. Just a "top driven" one.
UBI
UBI is the primary feature of that because, in a command economy, production is mostly pretend, so you just have to give people money (for nothing).
Remember the old basic operating system of the Soviet Union, stated succinctly as: We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us.
Got that?
Build Back Better
The idea behind “Build Back Better” is to renovate the infrastructure of a hyper-tech economy that actually no longer exists.
Why?
Because we are in the contraction phase of an historic pulsation or cycle.
It is leaving us with lots of tech and less production, trending toward zero.
Nobody flogging this slogan actually knows what it ought to mean under the circumstances, which is to go with the flow of the reality of this contraction:
To downsize, downscale, and re-localize all our activities to bring them back into sync with actual productivity…
… that is, raising food, making real stuff, and trading it. Again, it’s the energy dynamic, stupid.
To get to that point, we’re going to shed the massive over-burden of financial game-playing that has pretended to represent our economy.
That means stock valuations and bond prices will vaporize along with the derivative activities concocted for trading gainfully in these now-phantom representations of capital.
If that happens sooner rather than later, we won’t even be able to pretend to Build Back Better the interstate highways, the electric grid, airports, and all the other stuff in the “infrastructure” folder.
Indeed, a lot of that would be malinvestment folly now because we’re nearing the end of mass motoring and commercial aviation as we’ve known them.
If we even have electricity twenty-five years from now, it will come from much-reduced grids on a much more regional basis.
The bottom line for all this is that pretty soon every corner of the country will be on its own amid quite a bit of social disorder and financial wreckage.
So, whatever energy you actually can marshal to Build Back Better, save it for your town or your local community.
And remember, all of the attempts by a national government to control these events…
… and coerce its citizens in the service of that…
… will only lead to a more ineffectual and impotent national government that nobody has faith in…
… confirming the fact…
…that you are on your own.
Yikes!
All things end…
Have no doubt: when Washington’s global dominion finally ends, there will be painful daily reminders of what such a loss of power means for Americans in every walk of life.
Even when the American government tries to distract from the collapse by launching a war.
This little quote was written over a decade ago, in 2010, in Salon…
By 2020, according to current plans, the Pentagon will throw a military Hail Mary pass for a dying empire.
It will launch a lethal triple canopy of advanced aerospace robotics that represents Washington's last best hope of retaining global power despite its waning economic influence.
By that year, however, China's global network of communications satellites, backed by the world's most powerful supercomputers, will also be fully operational, providing Beijing with an independent platform for the weaponization of space and a powerful communications system for missile- or cyber-strikes into every quadrant of the globe.
-Salon 2010
As a half-dozen European nations have discovered, imperial decline tends to have a remarkably demoralizing impact on a society…
…regularly bringing at least a generation of economic privation.
As the economy cools, political temperatures rise, often sparking serious domestic unrest.
Available economic, educational, and military data indicate that, when it comes to U.S. global power, negative trends has aggregated rapidly and are likely to reach a critical mass no later than 2025.
The American Century, proclaimed so triumphantly at the start of World War II, is already tattered and fading and by 2025, its eighth decade, and could (very probably) end up being history.
But don’t worry!
Here’s a number of articles that make the point that there is a significant difference between a collapse and a crisis.
And while not explicitly spelled out directly, it is implied that the worst possible thing that might happen is yet another economic crisis, not an economic collapse.
Economic Depressions vs Collapse
To begin with, I think it’s important to differentiate between economic collapse and economic depression.
A depression is a rather normal part of the market cycle.
As Adam Smith points out in Wealth of Nations, these occasionally happen as the market corrects imbalances within itself.
Maybe there’s some form of bubble akin to the Dutch Tulip Bubble of the 1600s where the price of rare tulip bulbs increased to preposterous levels before people lost entire fortunes when the market corrected itself.
Who knew?
The point is that economic depression is rather normal.
Panicked investors withdrew billions from money market accounts where businesses keep cash to fund day-to-day operations.
If withdrawals had gone on for even a week, and if the Fed and the U.S. government had not stepped in to shore up the financial sector, the entire economy would likely have ground to a halt.
Trucks would have stopped rolling.
Grocery stores would have run out of food, and businesses would have been forced to shut down.
That’s how close the U.S. economy came to a real collapse—and how vulnerable it is to another one.
Will the U.S Economy Collapse?
A U.S. economy collapse is unlikely. When necessary, the government can act quickly to avoid a total collapse.
MM Comment
Nonsense. Compare the US Economy with the Chinese economy.
Most of the CCP government debts are infrastructure = investment. If they need cash, they can simply privatised.
China have a lot of high quality SOEs, they not only make money and contributed to government tax revenue, but their stocks can be used by government to fund social services such as 10% of selected SOEs share are used for age care in China without the need to increase tax.
China Economy benefited from government infrastructure and water redirection strategies, as a result there are new growing opportunities to the economy. Government revenues are healthy with big potential to growth further.
So, no worries with the current china debt level. Beside, the CCP does not give tax Payer money to too big to fail private businesses. when they billed out a private business , they took over the ownership. Last year, there is a private bank become state own.
However, Western debts are given to wall street for speculative activities from real estate to stock markets. These businesses don't pay tax, they only bribe the politicians with campaign money, and enrich those most corrupt politicians with speech fees, book deals etc.
The super rich in the West keep taking from the tax payers by bribing the politicians and not giving back to the society.
So sources of western government revenue become narrower, national and household debt keep rising at radicurous speed. these are real debt with no ability to repay.
So western governmen keep taxing the 99% with yearly rising service fees, council rate, all kind of fines. These policies affect the average people buying power, hence affecting the people buying power. Thus, domestic consumption as one of the major pillars of Western GDP contracted, the economy in trouble.
As rich people don't pay tax, the 99% running out of money. As a result, small and medium sized businesses suffered, tax revenue for government reduced. So trump think that trade war is easy to win, he can raise tax from China, but he failed miserably.
US will collapsed once RMB successfully replace the dollar as world trading currency, when the ability to continue print money without inflation in US is gone, US dollar will collapse, economy will collapse.
Hope the above make sense.
Cheers
<redacted>
Demand would outstrip supply of food, gas, and other necessities.
If the collapse affected local governments and utilities, then water and electricity might no longer be available.
A U.S. economic collapse would create global panic.
MM Comment
Most of the world has expected this collapse for decades and have put in place systems to mitigate any American-centrist collapse. Certainly the five-eyes nations of Canada, UK, NZ and Australia will be negatively affected, but the rest of the world will not be so directly affected.
The USA does not own, run or dictate to the world.
Investors would rush to other currencies, such as the yuan, euro, or even gold. It would create not just inflation, but hyperinflation, as the dollar lost value to other currencies.
If you want to understand what life is like during a collapse, think back to the Great Depression. The stock market crashed on Black Thursday. By the following Tuesday, it was down 25%.
Many investors lost their life savings that weekend.
By 1932, one out of four people was unemployed.
Wages for those who still had jobs fell precipitously—manufacturing wages dropped 32% from 1929 to 1932.
U.S. gross domestic product was cut nearly in half.
Thousands of farmers and other unemployed workers moved to California and elsewhere in search of work.
Two-and-a-half million people left the Midwestern Dust Bowl states.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average didn’t rebound to its pre-Crash level until 1954.
MM Comment
Everything in America today is an illusion. The GDP is artificially skewed in favor of the fantastic wealth held by the 1%. Were they to lose 30% of their wealth, the GDP for the nation could possibly drop to a mere tiny fraction of it's value.
When the curtain comes falling down everything that is fake and an illusion becomes clear for the world to see.
Collapse Versus Crisis
An economic crisis is not the same as an economic collapse. As painful as it was, the 2008 financial crisis was not a collapse. Millions of people lost jobs and homes, but basic services were still provided.
Other past financial crises seemed like a collapse at the time, but are barely remembered now.
1970s Stagflation
The OPEC oil embargo and President Richard Nixon’s abolishment of the gold standard triggered double-digit inflation. The government responded to this economic downturn by freezing wages and labor rates to curb inflation.7 The result was a high unemployment rate. Businesses, hampered by low prices, could not afford to keep workers at unprofitable wage rates.
1981 Recession
The Fed raised interest rates in a bid to end double-digit inflation.
That created the worst recession since the Great Depression. President Ronald Reagan cut taxes and increased government spending to end it.
1989 Savings and Loan Crisis
One thousand banks closed after improper real estate investments turned sour. Charles Keating and other Savings & Loan bankers had mis-used bank depositor’s funds. The consequent recession triggered an unemployment rate as high as 7.5%. The government was forced to bail out some banks to the tune of $124 billion.
Post-9/11 Recession
The terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 sowed nationwide apprehension and prolonged the 2001 recession—and unemployment of greater than 10%—through 2003. The United States’ response, the War on Terror, has cost the nation $6.4 trillion, and counting.
2008 Financial Crisis
The early warning signs of the 2008 Financial Crisis were rapidly falling housing prices and increasing mortgage defaults in 2006. Left untended, the resulting subprime mortgage crisis, which panicked investors and led to massive bank withdrawals, spread like wildfire across the financial community. The U.S. government had no choice but to bail out “too big to fail” banks and insurance companies, like Bear Stearns and AIG, or face both national and global financial catastrophes.
2020 Recession
It is too soon to tally up the total costs of the 2020 global health crisisCoronavirus pandemic—the crisis is still ongoing. Already we have seen worldwide supply-chain interruptions, heightened volatility and steep losses in financial markets, and sharp slowdowns in the travel and hospitality industries.
How much economic cost should we expect? According to the United Nations’ Conference on Trade and Development, the global economic hit could reduce global growth rates to 0.5% and cost the global economy as much as $2 trillion for 2020.
So what is going to happen?
I am not really all that good in predicting future events. You know, it’s all a very personal event that lies upon your world-line template. But regardless as to what your template map looks like we can make a couple of basic and reasonable statements…
America is deep, deep in debt.
There are no efforts to control this debt, or slow down spending.
This is not sustainable.
Since it is not sustainable, there will come a time when this kind of behavior will end. It might be gradual, or sudden. But it will have to end.
How the nation handles this change in economic policy will depend on may, many factors. Knowing human nature, humans do not like change, and those accustomed to doing things a certain way will have a difficult time adapting.
Gradual Change
If the change is gradual, and those managing the economy are talented, capable and willing…
… the United States economy can contract in a very controlled implosion, will little radical change, and managed in such as way that the United States might experience a simple minor recession.
Significantly, in 2008, the U.S. National Intelligence Council admitted for the first time that America's global power was indeed on a declining trajectory. In one of its periodic futuristic reports, Global Trends 2025, the Council cited "the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way, roughly from West to East" and "without precedent in modern history," as the primary factor in the decline of the "United States' relative strength -- even in the military realm."
Like many in Washington, however, the Council’s analysts anticipated a very long, very soft landing for American global preeminence, and harbored the hope that somehow...
... the U.S. would long "retain unique military capabilities… to project military power globally" for decades to come.
Sure…
What ever you say.
Wrapped in imperial hubris, like Whitehall or Quai d'Orsay before it, the White House still seems to imagine that American decline will be gradual, gentle, and partial. In his State of the Union address last January, President Obama offered the reassurance that "I do not accept second place for the United States of America."
A few days later, Vice President Biden ridiculed the very idea that "we are destined to fulfill [historian Paul] Kennedy's prophecy that we are going to be a great nation that has failed because we lost control of our economy and overextended."
Similarly, writing in the November issue of the establishment journal Foreign Affairs, neo-liberal foreign policy guru Joseph Nye waved away talk of China's economic and military rise, dismissing "misleading metaphors of organic decline" and denying that any deterioration in U.S. global power was underway.
Ordinary Americans, watching their jobs head overseas, have a more realistic view than their cosseted leaders. An opinion poll in August 2010 found that 65 percent of Americans believed the country was now "in a state of decline." Already, Australia and Turkey, traditional U.S. military allies, are using their American-manufactured weapons for joint air and naval maneuvers with China.
Already, America's closest economic partners are backing away from Washington's opposition to China's rigged currency rates. As the president flew back from his Asian tour last month, a gloomy New York Times headline summed the moment up this way: "Obama's Economic View Is Rejected on World Stage, China, Britain and Germany Challenge U.S., Trade Talks With Seoul Fail, Too."
-Salon 2010
Sudden Change
If those in Washington DC, have been living in isolation bubbles, echo chambers, and have selfish, self-interests at heart rather than what is good for the nation, it is highly likely that there could be a very sudden change. Perhaps one that reaches the limits and boundaries of a catastrophe.
There are far too many variables involved to make accurate predictions. But that doesn’t stop people. And you can find these predictions all over the internet.
Viewed historically, the question is not whether the United States will lose its unchallenged global power, but just how precipitous and wrenching the decline will be.
In place of Washington’s wishful thinking, let’s use the National Intelligence Council’s own futuristic methodology.
Here we suggest four realistic scenarios for how, whether with a bang or a whimper, U.S. global power could reach its end in the 2020s (along with four accompanying assessments of just where we are today).
The future scenarios include:
Economic decline,
Oil shock,
Military misadventure, and…
World War III.
While these are hardly the only possibilities when it comes to American decline or even collapse, they offer a window into an onrushing future.
Economic Decline: Scenario 2020
After years of swelling deficits fed by incessant warfare in distant lands, in 2020, as long expected, the U.S. dollar finally loses its special status as the world’s reserve currency.
Hasn't happened... yet. But that is currently in process.
For many reasons, the Chinese authorities will probably someday stop pegging the yuan to a basket of currencies, and shift to a modern inflation-targeting regime under which they allow the exchange rate to fluctuate much more freely, especially against the dollar.
When that happens, expect most of Asia to follow China. In due time, the dollar, currently the anchor currency for roughly two-thirds of world GDP, could lose nearly half its weight.
Considering how much the United States relies on the dollar’s special status – or what then-French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing famously called America’s “exorbitant privilege” – to fund massive public and private borrowing, the impact of such a shift could be significant.
Suddenly, the cost of imports soars.
This did happen. From the "Trump Tariffs" of 25%, to the costs of shipping in 2021, importing products into the United States is factually much more costly than before.
Unable to pay for swelling deficits by selling now-devalued Treasury notes abroad, Washington is finally forced to slash its bloated military budget. Under pressure at home and abroad, Washington slowly pulls U.S. forces back from hundreds of overseas bases to a continental perimeter. By now, however, it is far too late.
Did not happen. The United States military instead got much larger.
Faced with a fading superpower incapable of paying the bills, China, India, Iran, Russia, and other powers, great and regional, provocatively challenge U.S. dominion over the oceans, space, and cyberspace.
True, and in process.
Meanwhile, amid soaring prices, ever-rising unemployment, and a continuing decline in real wages, domestic divisions widen into violent clashes and divisive debates, often over remarkably irrelevant issues.
True and in process.
Riding a political tide of disillusionment and despair, a far-right patriot captures the presidency with thundering rhetoric, demanding respect for American authority and threatening military retaliation or economic reprisal.
Good call. Donald Trump became President, and Biden continues his neocon ambitions.
The world pays next to no attention as the American Century ends in silence.
Oh, the world is paying attention. It's just that America is viewed as a declining and unstable nation.
Oil Shock: Scenario 2025
The United States remains so dependent upon foreign oil that a few adverse developments in the global energy market in 2025 spark an oil shock.
By comparison, it makes the 1973 oil shock (when prices quadrupled in just months) look like the proverbial molehill.
Angered at the dollar’s plummeting value, OPEC oil ministers, meeting in Riyadh, demand future energy payments in a “basket” of Yen, Yuan, and Euros.
That only hikes the cost of U.S. oil imports further.
At the same moment, while signing a new series of long-term delivery contracts with China, the Saudis stabilize their own foreign exchange reserves by switching to the Yuan.
Meanwhile, China pours countless billions into building a massive trans-Asia pipeline and funding Iran’s exploitation of the world largest percent natural gas field at South Pars in the Persian Gulf.
Concerned that the U.S. Navy might no longer be able to protect the oil tankers traveling from the Persian Gulf to fuel East Asia, a coalition of Tehran, Riyadh, and Abu Dhabi form an unexpected new Gulf alliance and affirm that China’s new fleet of swift aircraft carriers will henceforth patrol the Persian Gulf from a base on the Gulf of Oman.
Not happened, and there are no plans for this. What is happening is that China and Iran, with Russia have formed a joint military block.
Under heavy economic pressure, London agrees to cancel the U.S. lease on its Indian Ocean island base of Diego Garcia, while Canberra, pressured by the Chinese, informs Washington that the Seventh Fleet is no longer welcome to use Fremantle as a homeport, effectively evicting the U.S. Navy from the Indian Ocean.
Did not happen. In fact, the United States is pushing for even stronger military presence, and few other nations are enthusiastic about joining the QUAD.
With just a few strokes of the pen and some terse announcements, the “Carter Doctrine,” by which U.S. military power was to eternally protect the Persian Gulf, is laid to rest in 2025. All the elements that long assured the United States limitless supplies of low-cost oil from that region — logistics, exchange rates, and naval power — evaporate. At this point, the U.S. can still cover only an insignificant 12 percent of its energy needs from its nascent alternative energy industry, and remains dependent on imported oil for half of its energy consumption.
Did not happen. Instead, the USA is heavily involved militarily in the entire Middle East region.
The oil shock that follows hits the country like a hurricane, sending prices to startling heights, making travel a staggeringly expensive proposition, putting real wages (which had long been declining) into freefall, and rendering non-competitive whatever American exports remained.
Not happened yet, but 2025 is still four years away.
With thermostats dropping, gas prices climbing through the roof, and dollars flowing overseas in return for costly oil, the American economy is paralyzed. With long-fraying alliances at an end and fiscal pressures mounting, U.S. military forces finally begin a staged withdrawal from their overseas bases.
I would highly doubt it. If anything the last few years has been a nearly insane level of pro-military anti-China, anti-Russia and anti-Iran war-mongering.
Within a few years, the U.S. is functionally bankrupt and the clock is ticking toward midnight on the American Century.
Military Misadventure: Scenario 2014
Counterintuitively, as their power wanes, empires often plunge into ill-advised military misadventures. This phenomenon is known among historians of empire as “micro-militarism” and seems to involve psychologically compensatory efforts to salve the sting of retreat or defeat by occupying new territories, however briefly and catastrophically.
These operations, irrational even from an imperial point of view, often yield hemorrhaging expenditures or humiliating defeats that only accelerate the loss of power.
Embattled empires through the ages suffer an arrogance that drives them to plunge ever deeper into military misadventures until defeat becomes debacle.
In 413 BCE, a weakened Athens sent 200 ships to be slaughtered in Sicily.
In 1921, a dying imperial Spain dispatched 20,000 soldiers to be massacred by Berber guerrillas in Morocco.
In 1956, a fading British Empire destroyed its prestige by attacking Suez.
And in 2001 and 2003, the U.S. occupied Afghanistan and invaded Iraq.
With the hubris that marks empires over the millennia, Washington has increased its troops in Afghanistan to 100,000, expanded the war into Pakistan, and extended its commitment to 2014 and beyond, courting disasters large and small in this guerilla-infested, nuclear-armed graveyard of empires.
So irrational, so unpredictable is “micro-militarism” that seemingly fanciful scenarios are soon outdone by actual events. With the U.S. military stretched thin from Somalia to the Philippines and tensions rising in Israel, Iran, and Korea, possible combinations for a disastrous military crisis abroad are multifold.
Washington makes its move, sending in Special Operations forces to seize oil ports in the Persian Gulf. This, in turn, sparks a rash of suicide attacks and the sabotage of pipelines and oil wells. As black clouds billow skyward and diplomats rise at the U.N. to bitterly denounce American actions, commentators worldwide reach back into history to brand this “America’s Suez,” a telling reference to the 1956 debacle that marked the end of the British Empire.
Well things are going on. Most are not reported. There is the enormous Beirut explosion, as well as various other oil related military Mal-adventures.
World War III: Present Situation
In the summer of 2010, military tensions between the U.S. and China began to rise in the western Pacific, once considered an American “lake.” Even a year earlier no one would have predicted such a development. As Washington played upon its alliance with London to appropriate much of Britain’s global power after World War II, so China is now using the profits from its export trade with the U.S. to fund what is likely to become a military challenge to American dominion over the waterways of Asia and the Pacific.
With its growing resources, Beijing is claiming a vast maritime arc from Korea to Indonesia long dominated by the U.S. Navy.
In August, after Washington expressed a “national interest” in the South China Sea and conducted naval exercises there to reinforce that claim, Beijing’s official Global Times responded angrily, saying, “The U.S.-China wrestling match over the South China Sea issue has raised the stakes in deciding who the real future ruler of the planet will be.”
Amid growing tensions, the Pentagon reported that Beijing now holds “the capability to attack… [U.S.] aircraft carriers in the western Pacific Ocean” and target “nuclear forces throughout… the continental United States.” By developing “offensive nuclear, space, and cyber warfare capabilities,”
China seems determined to vie for dominance of what the Pentagon calls “the information spectrum in all dimensions of the modern battlespace.” With ongoing development of the powerful Long March V booster rocket, as well as the launch of two satellites in January 2010 and another in July, for a total of five, Beijing signaled that the country was making rapid strides toward an “independent” network of 35 satellites for global positioning, communications, and reconnaissance capabilities by 2020.
To check China and extend its military position globally, Washington is intent on building a new digital network of air and space robotics, advanced cyberwarfare capabilities, and electronic surveillance. Military planners expect this integrated system to envelop the Earth in a cyber-grid capable of blinding entire armies on the battlefield or taking out a single terrorist in field or favela.
By 2020, if all goes according to plan, the Pentagon will launch a three-tiered shield of space drones — reaching from stratosphere to exosphere, armed with agile missiles, linked by a resilient modular satellite system, and operated through total telescopic surveillance.
Last April, the Pentagon made history. It extended drone operations into the exosphere by quietly launching the X-37B unmanned space shuttle into a low orbit 255 miles above the planet. The X-37B is the first in a new generation of unmanned vehicles that will mark the full weaponization of space, creating an arena for future warfare unlike anything that has gone before.
From 2008 through 2016, American military forces were training to invade islands in the South China Sea, and moneys were spent enlarging military bases in the Pacific.
From 2017 through 2020, it's been war. Mostly "hybrid", but there has been a major biological warfare effort involved against China with 7 strains attacking livestock, and three attacking people. All have failed.
Leaving and resulting a March 2021 Alaskan meeting where the USA told China to "roll over and die", or be destroyed. China responded back with "Fuck you".
World War III: Scenario 2025
The technology of space and cyberwarfare is so new and untested that even the most outlandish scenarios may soon be superseded by a reality still hard to conceive. If we simply employ the sort of scenarios that the Air Force itself used in its 2009 Future Capabilities Game, however, we can gain “a better understanding of how air, space and cyberspace overlap in warfare,” and so begin to imagine how the next world war might actually be fought.
It’s 11:59 p.m. on Thanksgiving Thursday in 2025. While cyber-shoppers pound the portals of Best Buy for deep discounts on the latest home electronics from China, U.S. Air Force technicians at the Space Surveillance Telescope (SST) on Maui choke on their coffee as their panoramic screens suddenly blip to black. Thousands of miles away at the U.S. CyberCommand’s operations center in Texas, cyberwarriors soon detect malicious binaries that, though fired anonymously, show the distinctive digital fingerprints of China’s People’s Liberation Army.
The first overt strike is one nobody predicted. Chinese “malware” seizes control of the robotics aboard an unmanned solar-powered U.S. “Vulture” drone as it flies at 70,000 feet over the Tsushima Strait between Korea and Japan. It suddenly fires all the rocket pods beneath its enormous 400-foot wingspan, sending dozens of lethal missiles plunging harmlessly into the Yellow Sea, effectively disarming this formidable weapon.
Determined to fight fire with fire, the White House authorizes a retaliatory strike. Confident that its F-6 “Fractionated, Free-Flying” satellite system is impenetrable, Air Force commanders in California transmit robotic codes to the flotilla of X-37B space drones orbiting 250 miles above the Earth, ordering them to launch their “Triple Terminator” missiles at China’s 35 satellites. Zero response. In near panic, the Air Force launches its Falcon Hypersonic Cruise Vehicle into an arc 100 miles above the Pacific Ocean and then, just 20 minutes later, sends the computer codes to fire missiles at seven Chinese satellites in nearby orbits. The launch codes are suddenly inoperative.
As the Chinese virus spreads uncontrollably through the F-6 satellite architecture, while those second-rate U.S. supercomputers fail to crack the malware’s devilishly complex code, GPS signals crucial to the navigation of U.S. ships and aircraft worldwide are compromised. Carrier fleets begin steaming in circles in the mid-Pacific. Fighter squadrons are grounded. Reaper drones fly aimlessly toward the horizon, crashing when their fuel is exhausted. Suddenly, the United States loses what the U.S. Air Force has long called “the ultimate high ground”: space. Within hours, the military power that had dominated the globe for nearly a century has been defeated in World War III without a single human casualty.
A New World Order?
Even if future events prove duller than these scenarios suggest, every significant trend points toward a far more striking decline in American global power by 2025 than anything Washington now seems to be envisioning.
As allies worldwide begin to realign their policies to take cognizance of rising Asian powers, the cost of maintaining 800 or more overseas military bases will simply become unsustainable…
… finally forcing a staged withdrawal on a still-unwilling Washington.
With both the U.S. and China in a race to weaponize space and cyberspace, tensions between the two powers are bound to rise, making military conflict by 2025 at least feasible, if hardly guaranteed.
Complicating matters even more, the economic, military, and technological trends outlined above will not operate in tidy isolation.
As happened to European empires after World War II, such negative forces will undoubtedly prove synergistic.
They will combine in thoroughly unexpected ways, create crises for which Americans are remarkably unprepared, and threaten to spin the economy into a sudden downward spiral, consigning this country to a generation or more of economic misery.
As U.S. power recedes, the past offers a spectrum of possibilities for a future world order.
At one end of this spectrum, the rise of a new global superpower, however unlikely, cannot be ruled out.
Yet both China and Russia evince self-referential cultures, recondite non-roman scripts, regional defense strategies, and underdeveloped legal systems, denying them key instruments for global dominion. At the moment then, no single superpower seems to be on the horizon likely to succeed the U.S.
Nonsense. As of 2021, Russia, China and Iran have combined for a unified Asia.
In a dark, dystopian version of our global future, a coalition of transnational corporations, multilateral forces like NATO, and an international financial elite could conceivably forge a single, possibly unstable, supra-national nexus that would make it no longer meaningful to speak of national empires at all.
As stated by an American inside of America over ten years ago. Such dated ignorance.
While denationalized corporations and multinational elites would assumedly rule such a world from secure urban enclaves, the multitudes would be relegated to urban and rural wastelands.
In “Planet of Slums,” Mike Davis offers at least a partial vision of such a world from the bottom up. He argues that the billion people already packed into fetid favela-style slums worldwide (rising to two billion by 2030) will make “the ‘feral, failed cities’ of the Third World… the distinctive battlespace of the twenty-first century.”
As darkness settles over some future super-favela, “the empire can deploy Orwellian technologies of repression” as “hornet-like helicopter gun-ships stalk enigmatic enemies in the narrow streets of the slum districts… Every morning the slums reply with suicide bombers and eloquent explosions.”
At a midpoint on the spectrum of possible futures, a new global oligopoly might emerge between 2020 and 2040, with rising powers China, Russia, India, and Brazil collaborating with receding powers like Britain, Germany, Japan, and the United States to enforce an ad hoc global dominion, akin to the loose alliance of European empires that ruled half of humanity circa 1900.
Another possibility: the rise of regional hegemons in a return to something reminiscent of the international system that operated before modern empires took shape.
In this neo-Westphalian world order, with its endless vistas of micro-violence and unchecked exploitation, each hegemon would dominate its immediate region — Brasilia in South America, Washington in North America, Pretoria in southern Africa, and so on. Space, cyberspace, and the maritime deeps, removed from the control of the former planetary “policeman,” the United States, might even become a new global commons, controlled through an expanded U.N. Security Council or some ad hoc body.
All of these scenarios extrapolate existing trends into the future on the assumption that Americans, blinded by the arrogance of decades of historically unparalleled power, cannot or will not take steps to manage the unchecked erosion of their global position.
If America’s decline is in fact on a 22-year trajectory from 2003 to 2025, then we have already frittered away most of the first decade of that decline with wars that distracted us from long-term problems and, like water tossed onto desert sands, wasted trillions of desperately needed dollars.
Duh. It's pretty fucking obvious.
If only 15 years remain, the odds of frittering them all away still remain high. Congress and the president are now in gridlock; the American system is flooded with corporate money meant to jam up the works; and there is little suggestion that any issues of significance, including our wars, our bloated national security state, our starved education system, and our antiquated energy supplies, will be addressed with sufficient seriousness to assure the sort of soft landing that might maximize our country’s role and prosperity in a changing world.
Yup. Forget about a "soft landing". The psychopaths in Washington DC will have none of that.
Europe’s empires are gone and America’s imperium is going.
It seems increasingly doubtful that the United States will have anything like Britain’s success in shaping a succeeding world order that protects its interests, preserves its prosperity, and bears the imprint of its best values.
This was written a decade ago in 2010.
The “knee jerk” reaction is for America to start a war.
Don’t.
China. Does. Not. Play.
The Oligarchy have their ideas…
Certainly the PTB, and the oligarchy skedaddled to their hidy-holes in remote areas of NZ, Canada, and Europe. So that tells me that the oligarchy believe that a collapse is imminent.
So, taking their lead and some common sense, we can take note and prepare…
As Ayn Rand points out throughout her books (particularly in Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal), it is production which is true wealth. The person who produces, whether that be food, shoes, holsters, or some other form of tangible good, is the one who holds true wealth. They’re adding something to society, creating something that others need or want.
In the same spirit, I would argue that the person who can provide a tangible service as well also has true wealth. An electrician who can provide light to a building, a plumber who can ensure personal hygiene is a diminished issue, and a doctor who can repair a wound are all examples of people who may not necessarily produce tangible goods (such as in the case of farmers, leatherworkers, and blacksmiths), but they still are able to produce a service that is both wanted and needed.
So, one of the first things that we can do to prepare ourselves for economic collapse is to become capable of producing.
This can be done in two primary ways: by the learning of a new skill or by getting into the business of producing merchandise.
Learning a New Skill
This is part of the reason that I went and became a locksmith. I have more than one job but wanted to have something of a backup plan perchance something should happen to my primary income. Tradesmen are both necessary and (typically) in short supply. Learning a concrete skill seemed to be something that would provide a fairly decent insurance policy should I need to fall back on something else. I’m glad I did, too. We’re a ‘key’ business.
Whether it be plumbing, carpentry, farrier work, or any other kind of trade for that matter, the point is that becoming proficient in a trade is to make yourself proficient in something that is likely to always be necessary. To look at a rather morbid example of such, we can analyze what the Germans did to the Jews throughout the Holocaust. Whether you are reading Schindler’s List, Maus, or The Man Who Broke into Auschwitz, you can see that it was the Jews who knew a trade such as metal polishing, mechanical work, or machining were (at least for a while) kept alive. (Of course, I’m by no means saying that pianists, teachers, and shopkeepers had no value.)
Learning to Produce Products
The second aspect would be investment in a particular merchandise. It involves producing products, starting a side business of some sort, perhaps. True, this often requires increasing one’s knowledge in a particular field, but there are some regions where it is simply the investment that allows a man to produce. As the saying goes, it takes money to make money.
This is where a shopkeeper would fit in. It is because such a man has invested capital into supplies that he is able to produce wealth for himself. Post-economic collapse though, which supplies will help one to produce wealth, however? Well, that leads me to the next topic: bartering.
Barter Society
I think that one of the first things that people need to realize when it comes to economic collapse is that things revert to a BARTER society. Look throughout history, and you’ll see that this is the case. The world doesn’t go to pot and a day later people are walking around and trading gold coins with one another. (I believe Joe Nobody illustrates this point rather well in his Holding Their Own series).
No, people start with trading goods and services for other needed/desired goods and services. Greece proved this with their recent economic collapse within the past five years or so. People traded eggs, milk, and meat for what they needed. I think it’s important to note that the farmer – a producer – was the one that was able to provide this for people as well. HE had true wealth throughout the collapse.
Again, in Venezuela we saw the same thing. People resorted to trading bananas for haircuts. The FIRST thing that becomes of value during an economic collapse is goods and services. True, there will be a very short window in which cash is king until people realize that the paper they have trusted all those years is now truly worthless in every sense of the word, but that window is short.
Barterable Goods and Services
So, after the brief cash window closes, after your world resorts to barter, the question becomes: “Okay, so what do I barter with? How do I get the things that my family needs?”
Regarding goods, I believe that the following is a good list to begin with. These are the things that people are going to need, and that are going to hold intrinsic value post-economic collapse:
Water – Particularly water bottles. These are readily portable, and not so value dense as to be unpractical for trade.
Water Filters – The majority of Americans have less than 3 days of food in their home. That includes water. If people can’t afford their electric bill, post-economic collapse, they are going to need access to safe water, and a water filter provides that.
Ammo– I truly believe that this will be one of the most practical and widely accepted forms of currency. It’s been used before as a currency, and it’ll be used again.
Guns– Value-dense, but there are going to be people who want them to protect their families from post-collapse violence. The demand for guns skyrocketed this year thanks to the riots and government action. What do you think the demand will look like post-collapse?
Food – There will always be a need for food, and – as witnessed by food bank lines – one of the first indicators of economic downturns.
Diapers – Parents go through thousands of these per year and will not have an adequate supply for their kids post-collapse. I believe reusable cloth diapers will be important.
Body Armor – Value-dense, but people will want it. There are record sales of it this year, and that desire will continue in a violent, post-collapse economy.
Coffee – It creates an addiction, and the withdrawal effects SUCK. People are going to want coffee, and there are ways to store it for a long time.
Boots – There will be an increase in the amount of walking the average man does thanks to the unavailability of gasoline. Shoes will wear out and need to be replaced.
Coats – Clothing wears out, new people are always being created, people constantly change size, and people always need it.
Gloves– There will be an increase in outdoor work, and gloves wear out.
Alcohol – Another thing that mankind can’t seem to get enough of. I just wouldn’t broadcast how much of this stuff that you have. People kill for it.
Tobacco – Another addiction that I wouldn’t broadcast you have a lot of. Cigarettes were routinely used as currency among POWs in WW2, and still are used in prisons throughout the world as currency.
Baby Formula – If breastfeeding is no longer an option, people are going to need formula to feed their babies. Parents WILL feed their babies, and there will be a dire need for such. Once again, not something I would advertise that I have a stockpile of.
Gasoline – This will always be needed for vehicles and generators.
Salt – Needed for meat storage since it is very unlikely that people will have access to constant electricity for refrigeration.
Medical Supplies – Crutches, slings, gauze, various first aid equipment and more will be in short supply. People always hurt themselves, and very few of much stored for their own first aid.
Medicine – There will always be a need for medication.
Spare Gun Parts – Guns break, and few have spare parts stored.
Condoms – People are going to realize that now is probably not the best time to get pregnant. If you staple three of them together and sell them in multi-packs, you can create a market for your baby formula as well! (I’m kidding, I’m kidding.)
Eye Glasses – Maybe it’s difficult to get replacement glasses, but reading glasses can be bought in bulk cheaply. It’s one of the most difficult things to get in prison, as the “state issue” glasses make you look like a retired mob boss.
Holsters – The thousands of people who bought pistols to keep in their nightstand will come to realize that they need a way to carry their weapon around with them. Things will be too dangerous to do otherwise, and many forget to buy a holster ahead of time.
When it comes to services, these are the skills that I believe will be in great demand post-economic collapse. It would be wise to learn at least some degree of proficiency in one of them.
Farming – Food production will be vital, and the man with beehives, fields, a garden, chickens, or dairy animals will be able to produce an item that people need on a daily basis.
Ranching – Much different than farming. Whether you know how to manage cattle for somebody else, or have the knowledge to raise them of your own accord, cattle, sheep, goats, and so on are going to need to be cared for to provide meat, leather, hides, and more for people.
Mechanical Work – Vehicles, generators, and more will break down and people will need them to be fixed.
Electrical Work – Wiring solar, pumps for wells, and more will always be needed.
Machining – It is likely that there will still be factories producing, and machinists will be needed for such.
Gunsmithing – Accidents happen, and few trust their own abilities to fix a firearm. Gunsmiths will be needed for such events.
Leatherwork – Primarily for holsters, gun straps, and clothing.
Medical Work – There will be a dire need for such workers post-economic collapse. People will be unable to afford their medications, or regular healthcare services, and thus there will be a drastic increase in acute conditions. Medical workers will be needed to address such, even if it is on the individual barter basis.
Protection – Herds, businesses, neighborhoods, and residences are going to want permanent protection, and will be willing to hire experienced armed men to do so. Knowing how to patrol, set up a perimeter, and dispose of threats will be in demand.
Baking – Knowledge of how to make bread will allow you to produce an item that everyone will need and want post-collapse.
Textile Creation – Whether this comes in the form of knitting, crocheting, tailoring, or so on, there will be a need for items of cloth as clothing gradually wears out, is lost, soiled, or stolen.
Keep in mind that all the above are general lists. Undoubtedly, you will be able to think of both goods and services that will have post-economic collapse value that are not included above. These are simply given to get your mind thinking about some sure-fire ways to be able to barter for what you need in the event of an economic collapse.
What About Precious Metals?
There are two reasons gold and silver have been omitted:
First, the use of precious metals doesn’t seem to come into common use until well after the period of barter transactions.
Second, I believe that precious metals are much more important for wealth evacuation. Let’s take a look at both of these in more detail.
To begin with, seldom throughout history do we see precious metals instantly being reverted to as currency post-economic collapse. Why? You can’t eat them, you can’t drink them, and few understand their inherent value (ask a friend what the current price of gold is to find see). Even fewer can tell if the gold/silver that you are offering them is the real deal or a fake.
Stocking precious metals is now how to survive an economic collapse. People don’t want gold and silver after an economic collapse. They want to be able to feed their families. Gold and silver will not be a readily used means of exchange in such an event.
To further complicate matters, gold is incredibly value dense. As of this writing, gold is a little over $2000 an ounce. That’s a lot of value wrapped up in that little coin. If you need ammunition, and go to buy it from some small-time reloader, do you think he’ll be able to honor the equivalent of an ounce of gold’s worth of ammo? Odds are he won’t even have that much in stock. If we really want to examine the issue, I think that silver would be a better form of currency, precious-metals wise.
Silver is currently around $25/ounce. That’s a much more useable value amount on a daily basis. (If you want to read more, read about the best silver for preppers.) However, what we see throughout history is the reversion to barter, not to the gold standard.
Gold Exception – Wealth Evacuation
If you’ve got to get the heck out of somewhere, and fast, then I believe that gold is where it’s at. Silver is too bulky. A pocket full of gold coins would allow you to “start fresh” somewhere a bit more stable (if you can find such a place). Shoot, we can even look at the US post-Civil War here. Southern money was worth nothing after the war. However, those with gold and silver were able to have something with inherent value that would be redeemable for the new currency.
Again, we can look to the German Jews of the late 1930s. This was a very scary time to be a Jew in Europe. The persecution was very real, and things were heating up. The man who was able to sew gold coins up into the hem of his jacket, and get the heck out of Dodge ASAP was able to arrive at a new and politically friendlier climate with at least some of his wealth intact and under the radar. Baggage is lost and stolen. Clothing seldom is. Thus, I believe that one of the best purposes of gold is wealth evacuation.
How to Survive an Economic Collapse Summary
If you had asked people a year ago if they ever thought the entire world would enact lockdowns and throw refuse people for not wearing a surgical mask at Kroger, they would have said you were nuts. Yet, here we are. Why is it so improbable to think an economic collapse couldn’t be next? All of the warning signs are there? Is it foolish to just ignore them, and pretend that things will always continue on as “normal”?
I’ll let you come to your own conclusions.
Conclusion
So, let’s simplify things.
The statists argue that nothing really bad will happen in the future. At worst will be a recession, but Washington DC will have everything under control.
The “doom and gloomers” are forecasting a complete melt-down of the American society, and it will happen regardless of an American involvement in World War III.
Preppers are fearful for the worst of the worst.
Fourth Turning followers are also fearful for the worst of the worst.
Media Shrills are mindless automatons. They just regurgitate their programming.
Sheeple are oblivious. They know that things are going to shit, but they believe what ever they read. The the “news” says that everything is under control.
Neocons believe that everything will be fixed and turn around once the USA wins World War III.
So what is going to happen?
I cannot tell you all because everyone’s future is different. We all have our own MWI topography maps, and our futures depend on our thoughts, and affirmations.
Would it be too strange for me to allude that the members of each of the groups above will have their own futures play out exactly as their thoughts and actions dictate…
…Yup. That is what it’s gonna be (more or less).
No one is going to be unscathed. We will all experience changes. It’s just that the magnitude of the changes will differ from person to person. The best advice that I can give is to make your immediate environment safe, secure and as stable as possible.
There is no way to predict what will happen for the vast bulk of humanity. All you can do is prepare for your own family and your own region.
The best way to prepare is to be prudent. Be cautious. Be positive, and conduct prayer affirmations that include a GENEROUS listing of affirmations that describe safety and isolation from any looming catastrophes as a result of American mismanagement, evil behaviors, or insanity of one level or the other.
You’ll not find any big banners or popups here talking about cookies and privacy notices. There are no ads on this site (aside from the hosting ads – a necessary evil). Functionally and fundamentally, I just don’t make money off of this blog. It is NOT monetized. Finally, I don’t track you because I just don’t care to.
Please kindly help me out in this effort. There is a lot of effort that goes into this disclosure. I could use all the financial support that anyone could provide. Thank you very much.
Yeah. So today I went and got myself a nice beer, as is my custom on my way to the house for lunch. It’s a nice day. The weather is warming up. Getting a little glare from the clouds and the “feeling” in the air is one of calmness. There was a gaggle of young girls near the elevator. All in their lower to mid 20’s. Nice. Cute. Entry-level office workers.
Came home, and my damn dog decides to break the afternoon stillness by barking like a mad-dog.
He’s getting old and doggie dementia is kicking in. I had to go up to him let him smell my hand before I could calm him down. Ah. That’s life, you know. There’s always different folk on different wavelengths creating the canopy of life that we know and love.
The wife made me a Cobb Salad to have with my beer. It’s good stuff, I’ll tell you what.
Lately I have been a-wondering about what is “next”. You know, World War III, a new beginning, or something else. I have come to the conclusion that we have reached the point that I like to refer to as “The end of the beginning“.
Ah. Isn’t that the case.
It’s like this video (below).
As always, please click on the picture to have the video load and open up in a new window.
It’s not a dreary thing.
It’s a realization that things are changing, and yet the changes will continue.
My top running posts, by far, are my writings on SHTF. As has been the case for the last three months or so. People from all over the internet have been visiting my writings on these matters. They don’t post comments, but they read, stick around and then disappear. Like ghosts in the night. I don’t know who they are, or why they are reading about how to prepare for turmoil inside of America. But they do.
People are scared.
As uncomfortable as things are, they are not yet dire. There is this feeling like an axe is going to fall any day now, and it’s at all levels. It’s like the cats and dogs barking before an earthquake, or that bird migrate South before a disaster. Something is up, but no one can put their finger on it.
The “news” is following the direction that must have been set in place years earlier. It does not reflect this feeling; this situation, or this condition. Instead its the same old bullshit.
The same bullshit.
Accuse China of XXXX, and YYYY.
Don’t report on radical Marxist legislation or progressive issues, but they continue apace.
Harp on the Coronavirus.
Promote the super wealthy as if the debt-serfs give a fuck anymore.
New taxes on the horizon!
But NASA is developing new things!
Yeah. Different subjects, but the same tired old formula.
It’s the end of the beginning.
People know. They KNOW.
The world that we all used to live in, and the ideas and the beliefs that we all used to have are long gone. They are dead. Dead as in two day old fish dead. Dead like Fat Fredy’s Cat sniffing a dead fish dead.
.
But why?
Why is the human species out in the West (not in China, nor Russia, nor Africa) feel this way?
Why?
Certainly there’s a lot of “chatter” on the social media. Today “Moon Over Alabama” and all sort of “armchair experts” talking and discussing the Tao inside of China and how that defines what China is today. LOL!
Fact of the matter.
Inside of China… no one talks about the Tao.
I do mean NO ONE.
Although Taoism is China's only indigenous religion, its sway now pales compared with its previous status.
- Corespirit
That’s like assuming all Americans have daily discussions about the influences of President Taft on contemporaneous social media platforms. Especially what President Traft would have to say in regards to selfies on Tiktok, and shadow-blocking trolls.
So silly.
Seriously.
I don’t know whether to laugh or to cry.
Perhaps it has something to do with how the West; the American run Western societies have evolved. And to which degree they sit as the world around them evolves in a different direction. Perhaps it is something much more fundamental to this degree…
The End of the Beginning
I believe that the big changes that all of us are due to experience have already been set in motion. And with this understanding comes the realization that “the stage is set”.
What is next…
Well it is the Start of the changes.
All that we have experienced so far is just the prep-work. And it’s all in place. Every single thing is where it needs to be for the big changes to take place.
What am I talking about?
I am talking about this….
This is a most excellent interview from the Greanville post. All credit to the authors. It was edited to fit this venue, but aside from that it is as intact as possible.
It deals with economics and finance and government systems. All stuff that I find boring. But this point of view is refreshing as it looks at what is going on and how the banking class is looking at profiting from the collapse. Yikes! What a great read!
Pepe: So, what’s going to happen in the, let’s say, short to mid-term in the U.S.?
Michael, we are seeing the corrosion of the whole system, not only externally in terms of foreign policy and the end of the free lunch, but internally with those 70-million-plus “deplorables” being literally canceled from public debate, the impoverishment of the middle classes, with over 50 million people in America who are practically becoming literally poor.
And obviously the American dream ended a few decades ago, maybe, but now there’s not even a glimpse of it, that there could be a renewal of the American dream.
So we have a larval civil war situation, degrading on a daily basis.
What’s the end game in fact? And what exactly does Wall Street, the American ruling class —the guys who have those lunches at the Harvard club — what do they ultimately want?
Michael: Well, what you call a disaster for the economy, isn’t it a bonanza for the 1 percent?
This is a victory of finance.
You look at it as a collapse of industrial capitalism. I look at it as the victory of rentier finance capitalism.
You’re having probably 10 million Americans that are going to be thrown out of their apartments and their homes in June when the moratorium on rents and mortgages ends.
You’re going to have a vast increase in the homeless population.
That will probably represent an increase in people who use the subways. Where else are they going to live?
And all of this, there’s an immense amount of private capital firms that have all been created in the last year of just wealth accumulations and they’re saying there are going to be such great opportunities to pick up real estate at bargain prices, all of this for the commercial real estate, that’s broken, all the buildings and the restaurants that have to be sold because they can’t meet their mortgage payments and their rents, all the houses that are going to be under, private capital can come in and do what was done after the Obama evictions.
We can do what Blackstone did. We can buy them all out for pennies on the dollar. So, for them, they’re looking at their own 20-year plan. And their 20-year plan is to grab everything!
The United States is an object lesson for China on what to avoid, not only in industrializing the economy, but in creating a picture of the economy as if everybody earns everything and there’s no exploitation, no unearned income, nobody makes money in their sleep and there’s no 1 percent..."
Michael Hudson: Well, I’m honored to be here on the same show with Pepe and discuss our mutual concern. And I think you have to frame the whole issue that China is thriving, and the West has reached the end of the whole 75-year expansion it had since 1945.
So, there was an illusion that America is de-industrializing because of competition from China. And the reality is there is no way that America can re-industrialize and regain its export markets with the way that it’s organized today, financialized and privatized and if China didn’t exist. You’d still have the Rust Belt rusting out. You’d still have American industry not being able to compete abroad simply because the cost structure is so high in the United States.
The wealth is no longer made here by industrializing. It’s made financially, mainly by making capital gains. Rising prices for real estate or for stocks and for bonds. In the last nine months, since the coronavirus came here, the top 1 percent of the U.S. economy grew by $1 trillion. It’s been a windfall for the 1 percent. The stock market is way up, the bond market is up, the real estate market is up while the rest of the economy is going down. Despite the tariffs that Trump put on, Chinese imports, trade with China is going up because we’re just not producing materials.
America doesn’t make its own shoes. It doesn’t make some nuts and bolts or fasteners, it doesn’t make industrial things anymore because if money is to be made off an industrial company it’s to buy and sell the company, not to make loans to increase the company’s production. New York City, where I live, used to be an industrial city and, the industrial buildings, the mercantile buildings have all been gentrified into high-priced real estate and the result is that Americans have to pay so much money on education, rent, medical care that if they got all of their physical needs, their food, their clothing, all the goods and services for nothing, they still couldn’t compete with foreign labor because of all of the costs that they have to pay that are essentially called rent-seeking.
Housing in the United States now absorbs about 40 percent of the average worker’s paycheck. There’s 15 percent taken off the top of paychecks for pensions, Social Security and for Medicare. Further medical insurance adds more to the paycheck, income taxes and sales taxes add about another 10 percent. Then you have student loans and bank debt. So basically, the American worker can only spend about one third of his or her income on buying the goods and services they produce. All the rest goes into the FIRE sector — the finance, insurance and real estate sector — and other monopolies.
And essentially, we became what’s called a rent-seeking economy, not a productive economy. So, when people in Washington talk about American capitalism versus Chinese socialism this is confusing the issue. What kind of capitalism are we talking about?
America used to have industrial capitalism in the 19th century. That’s how it got richer originally but now it’s moved away from industrial capitalism towards finance capitalism. And what that means is that essentially the mixed economy that made America rich — where the government would invest in education and infrastructure and transportation and provide these at low costs so that the employers didn’t have to pay labor to afford high costs — all of this has been transformed over the last hundred years.
And we’ve moved away from the whole ethic of what was industrial capitalism. Before, the idea of capitalism in the 19th century from Adam Smith to Ricardo, to John Stuart Mill to Marx was very clear and Marx stated it quite clearly; capitalism was revolutionary. It was to get rid of the landlord class. It was to get rid of the rentier class. It was to get rid of the banking class essentially, and just bear all the costs that were unnecessary for production, because how did England and America and Germany gain their markets?
“We’ve moved away from the whole ethic of what was industrial capitalism.”
They gained their markets basically by the government picking up a lot of the costs of the economy. The government in America provided low-cost education, not student debt. It provided transportation at subsidized prices. It provided basic infrastructure at low cost. And so, government infrastructure was considered a fourth factor of production.
And if you read what the business schools in the late 19th century taught like Simon Patten at the Wharton School, it’s very much like socialism. In fact, it’s very much like what China is doing. And in fact, China is following in the last 30 or 40 years pretty much the same way of getting rich that America followed.
It had its government fund basic infrastructure. It provides low-cost education. It invests in high-speed railroads and airports, in the building of cities. So, the government bears most of the costs and, that means that employers don’t have to pay workers enough to pay a student loan debt. They don’t have to pay workers enough to pay enormous rent such as you have in the United States. They don’t have to pay workers to save for a pension fund, to pay the pension later on. And most of all the Chinese economy doesn’t really have to pay a banking class because banking is the most important public utility of all. Banking is what China has kept in the hands of government and Chinese banks don’t lend for the same reasons that American banks lend.
(When I said that China can pay lower wages than the U.S., what I meant was that China provides as public services many things that American workers have to pay out of their own pockets – such as health care, free education, subsidized education, and above all, much lower debt service.
When workers have to go into debt in order to live, they need much higher wages to keep solvent. When they have to pay for their own health insurance, they have to earn more. The same is true of education and student debt. So much of what Americans seem to be earning — more than workers in other countries — goes right through their hands to the FIRE sector. So, what seems to be “low wages” in China go a lot further than higher wages in the United States.)
Eighty percent of American bank loans are mortgage loans to real estate and the effect of loosening loan standards and increasing the market for real estate is to push up the cost of living, push up the cost of housing. So, Americans have to pay more and more money for their housing whether they’re renters or they’re buyers, in which case the rent is for paying mortgage interest.
So, all of this cost structure has been built into the economy. China’s been able pretty much, to avoid all of this, because its objective in banking is not to make a profit and interest, not to make capital gains and speculation. It creates money to fund actual means of production to build factories, to build research and development, to build transportation facilities, to build infrastructure. Banks in America don’t lend for that kind of thing.
“So, you have a diametric opposite philosophy of how to develop between the United States and China.”
They only lend against collateral that’s already in place because they won’t make a loan if it’s not backed by collateral. Well, China creates money through its public banks to create capital, to create the means of production. So, you have a diametric opposite philosophy of how to develop between the United States and China.
The United States has decided not to gain wealth by actually investing in means of production and producing goods and services, but in financial ways. China is gaining wealth the old-fashioned way, by producing it. And whether you call this, industrial capitalism or a state capitalism or a state socialism or Marxism, it basically follows the same logic of real economics, the real economy, not the financial overhead. So, you have China operating as a real economy, increasing its production, becoming the workshop of the world as England used to be called and America trying to draw in foreign resources, live off of foreign resources, live by trying to make money by investing in the Chinese stock market or now, moving investment banks into China and making loans to China not actual industrial capitalism ways.
“China is gaining wealth the old-fashioned way, by producing it.”
So, you could say that America has gone beyond industrial capitalism, and they call it the post-industrial society, but you could call it the neo-feudal society. You could call it the neo-rentier society, or you could call it debt peonage but it’s not industrial capitalism.
And in that sense, there’s no rivalry between China and America. These are different systems going their own way and I better let Pepe pick it up from there.
Pepe Escobar: Okay. Thank you, Michael, this is brilliant. And you did it in less than 15 minutes. You told the whole story in 15 minutes. Well, my journalistic instinct is immediately to start questions to Michael. So, this is exactly what I’m gonna do now. I think it is much better to basically illustrate some points of what Michael just said, comparing the American system, which is finance capitalism essentially, with industrial capitalism that is in effect in China. Let me try to start with a very concrete and straight to the point question, Michael.
Okay. let’s says that more or less, if we want to summarize it, basically they try to tax the nonproductive rentier class. So, this would be the Chinese way to distribute wealth, right? Sifting through the Chinese economic literature, there is a very interesting concept, which is relatively new (correct me if I am wrong, Michael) in China, which they call stable investment. So stable investment, according to the Chinese would be to issue special bonds as extra capital in fact, to be invested in infrastructure building all across China, and they choose these projects in what they call weak areas and weak links. So probably in some of the inner provinces, or probably in some parts of Tibet or Xinjiang for instance. So, this is a way to invest in the real economy and in real government investment projects.
Right? So, my question in fact, is does this system create extra local debt, coming directly from this financing from Beijing? Is this a good recipe for sustainable development, the Chinese way and the recipe that they could expand to other parts of the Global South?
Michael: Well, this is a big problem that they’re discussing right now. The localities, especially rural China, (and China is still largely rural) only cover about half of their working budget from taxation. So, they have a problem. How are they going to get the balance of the money? Well, there is no official revenue sharing between the federal government and its state banks and the localities.
So, the localities can’t simply go to central government and say, give us more money. The government lets the localities be very independent. And it is sort of the “let a hundred flowers bloom” concept. And so, they’ve let each locality just go the long way, but the localities have run a big deficit.
What do they do? Well in the United States they would issue bonds on which New York is about to default. But in China, the easiest way for the localities to make money, is unfortunately they will do something like Chicago did. They will sell their tax rights for the next 75 years for current money now.
So, a real estate developer will come in and say; look we will give you the next 75 years of tax on this land, because we want to build projects on this (a set of buildings). So, what this means is that now the cities have given away all their source of rent.
Let me show you the problem by what Indiana and Chicago did. Chicago also was very much like China’s countryside cities. So, it sold parking meters and its sidewalks to a whole series of Wall Street investors, including the Abu Dhabi Investment Fund for seventy-five years. And that meant that for 75 years, this Wall Street consortium got to control the parking meters.
So, they put up the parking meters all over Chicago, raised the price of parking, raised the cost of driving to Chicago. And if Chicago would have a parade and interrupt parking, then Chicago has to pay the Abu Dhabi fund and Wall Street company what it would have made anyway. And this became such an awful disaster that finally Wall Street had to reverse the deal and undo it because it was giving privatization a bad name here. The same thing happened in Indiana.
Indiana was running a deficit and it decided to sell its roads to a Wall Street investment firm to make a toll road. The toll on the Indiana turnpike was so high that drivers began to take over the side roads. That’s the problem if you sell future tax revenues in advance.
Now what China and the localities there are discussing is that we’ve already given the real estate tax at very low estimates to the commercial developers, so what do we do? Well, I’ve given them my advice. I’m a professor of economics at the Peking University, School of Marxist studies and I’ve had discussions with the Central Committee. I also have an official position at Wuhan University. There, we’re discussing how China can put an added tax for all of the valuable land, that’s gone up. How can it be done to let the cities collect this tax? Our claim is that the cities, in selling these tax rights for 75 years, have sold what in Britain would be called ground rent (i.e. what’s paid to the landed aristocracy).
Over and above that there’s the market rent. So, China should pass a market-rent tax over and above the ground rent tax to reflect the current value. And there they’re thinking of, well, do we say that this is a capital gain on the land? Well, it’s not really a capital gain until you sell the land, but it’s value. It’s the valuation of the capital. And they’re looking at whether they should just say this is the market rent tax over and above the flat tax that has been paid in advance, or it’s a land tax on the capital gain for land.
Now, all of this requires that there be a land map of the whole country. And they are just beginning to create such a land map as a basis for how you calculate how much the rent there is.
What I found in China is something very strange. A few years ago, in Beijing, they had the first, International Marxist conference where I was the main speaker and I was talking about Marx’s discussion of the history of rent theory in Volume II and Volume III of Capital where Marx discusses all of the classical economics that led up to his view; Adam Smith, Ricardo, Malthus, John Stuart Mill, and Marx’s theory of surplus value was really the first history of economic thought that was written, although it wasn’t published until after he died. Well, you could see that there was a little bit of discomfort with some of the Marxists at the conference. And so, they invited for the next time my colleague David Harvey to come and talk about Marxism in the West.
Well, David gave both the leading and the closing speech of the conference and said, you’ve got to go beyond volume I of Capital. Volume I was what Marx wrote as his addition to classical economics, saying that there was exploitation in industrial employment of labor as well as rent seeking and then he said, now that I’ve done my introduction here, let me talk about how capitalism works in Volumes II and III. Volumes II and III are all about rent and finance and David Harvey has published a book on Volume III of Capital and his message to Peking University and the second Marxist conference was – you’ve got to read Volume II, and III.
Well, you can see that, there’s a discussion now over what is Marxism and a friend and colleague at PKU said Marxism is a Chinese word; It’s the Chinese word for politics. That made everything clear to me. Now I get it! I’ve been asked by the Academy of Social Sciences in China to create a syllabus of the history of rent theory and value theory. And essentially in order to have an idea of how you calculate rent, how do you make a national income analysis where you show rent, you have to have a theory of value and price and rent is the excess of price over the actual cost value. Well, for that you need a concept of cost of production and that’s what classical economics is all about. Post-classical economics denied all of this. The whole idea of classical economics is that not all income is earned.
Landlords don’t earn their income for making rent in their sleep as John Stuart Mill said. Banks don’t earn their income by just sitting there and letting debts accrue and interest compounding and doubling. The classical economists separated actual unearned income from the production and consumption economy.
Well, around the late 19th century in America, you had economists fighting against not only Marx, but also even against Henry George, who at that time, was urging a land tax in New York. And so, at Columbia University, John Bates Clark developed a whole theory that everybody earns whatever they can get. That there was no such thing as unearned income and that has become the basis for American national income statistics and thought ever since. So, if you look at today’s GDP figures for the United States, they have a figure for 8 percent of the GDP for the homeowners’ rent. But homeowners wouldn’t pay themselves if they had to rent the apartment to themselves, then you’ll have interest at about 12 percent of GDP.
And I thought, well how can interest be so steady? What happens to all of the late fees; that 29 percent that credit card companies charge? I called up the national income people in Washington, when I was there. And they said well, late fees and penalties are considered financial services.
And so, this is what you call a service economy. Well, there’s no service in charging a late fee, but they add all of the late fees. When people can’t pay their debts and they owe more and more, all of that is considered an addition to GDP. When housing becomes more expensive and prices American labor out of the market, that’s called an increase in GDP.
This is not how a country that wants to develop is going to create a national income account. So, there’s a long discussion in China about, just to answer your question, how do you create an account to distinguish between what’s the necessary cost to production and what’s an unnecessary production cost and how do we avoid doing what the United States did. So again, no rivalry. The United States is an object lesson for China on what to avoid, not only in industrializing the economy, but in creating a picture of the economy as if everybody earns everything and there’s no exploitation, no unearned income, nobody makes money in their sleep and there’s no 1 percent. Well, that’s what’s really at issue and why the whole world is splitting apart as you and I are discussing in what we’re writing.
“When people can’t pay their debts and they owe more and more, all of that is considered an addition to GDP.”
Pepe: Thank you, Michael. Thank you very much. So just to sum it all up, can we say that Beijing’s strategy is to save especially provincial areas from leasing their land, their infrastructure for 60 years or 75 years? As you just mentioned, can we say that the fulcrum of their national strategy is what you define as the market rent tax? Is this the No. 1 mechanism that they are developing?
Michael: Ideally, they want to keep rents as low as possible because rent is a cost of living and a cost of doing business. They don’t have banks that are lending to inflate the real estate market.
However, in almost every Western country — the U.S., Germany England — the value of stocks and bonds and the value of real estate is just about exactly the same. But for China, the value of real estate is way, way larger than the value of stocks.
And the reason is not because the Chinese Central bank, the Bank of China lends for real estate; it’s because they lend to intermediaries and the intermediaries have financed a lot of housing purchases in China. And, this is really the problem for if they levy a land tax, then you’re going to make a lot of these financial intermediaries go bust.
That’s what I’m advocating, and I don’t think that’s a bad thing. These financial intermediaries shouldn’t exist, and this same issue came up in 2009 in the United States. You had the leading American bank being the most crooked and internally corrupt bank in the country, Citibank making junk mortgage, and it was broke.
Its entire net worth was wiped out as a result of its fraudulent junk mortgages. Well, Sheila Bair, the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) wanted to close it down and take it over. Essentially that would have made it into a public bank and that would be a wonderful thing. She said, look Citibank shouldn’t be doing what it’s doing. And she wrote all this up in an autobiography. And, she was overruled by President Obama and Tim Geithner saying, but wait a minute, those are our campaign contributors. So, they were loyal to the campaign contributors, but not the voters; and they didn’t close Citibank down.
And the result is that the Federal Reserve ended up creating about $7 trillion of quantitative easing to bail out the banks. The homeowners weren’t bailed out. Ten million American families lost their homes as a result of junk mortgages in excess of what the property was actually worth.
All of this was left on the books, foreclosed and sold to private capital companies like Blackstone. And the result is that home ownership in America declined from 68 percent of the population down to about 61 percent. Well, right where the Obama administration left off, you’re about to have the Biden administration begin in January with an estimated 5 million Americans losing their homes. They’re going to be evicted because they’ve been unemployed during the pandemic. They’ve been working in restaurants or gyms or other industries that have been shut down because of the pandemic. They’re going to be evicted and many homeowners, low-income homeowners have been unable to pay their mortgages.
There’s going to be a wave of foreclosures. The question is, who’s going to bear the cost? Should it be 15 million American families who lose their homes just so the banks won’t lose money? Or should we let the banks that have made all of the growth since 2008? Ninety five percent of American GDP of the population has seen its wealth go down. All the wealth has been accumulating for the 5 percent in statistics. Now the question is should this 5 percent that’s got all the wealth lose or should the 95 percent lose?
The Biden administration says the 95 percent should lose basically. And you’re going to see a wave of closures so that the question in China should be that, these intermediate banks (they’re not really banks they are sort of like payday loan lenders), should they come in and, bear the loss or should Chinese localities and the people bear the loss? Somebody has to lose when you’re charging, you’re collecting the land’s rent that was paid to the creditors, and either the creditors have to lose or, the tax collector loses and that’s the conflict that exists in every society of the world today. And, in the West, the idea is the tax collectors should lose and whatever the tax collector relinquishes should be free for the banks to collect. In China obviously, they don’t want that to happen and they don’t want to see a financial class developing along US lines.
Pepe: Michael, there’s a quick question in all this, which is the official position by Beijing in terms of helping the localities. Their official position is that there won’t be any bailouts of local debt. How do they plan to do that?
Michael: What they’re discussing, how are you not going to do it? They think they sort of let localities go their own way. And they think, well you know which ones are going to succeed, and which ones aren’t, they didn’t want to have a one-size-fits all central planning. They wanted to have flexibility. Well, now they have flexibility. And when you have many different “let a hundred flowers bloom,” not all the flowers are going to bloom at the same rate.
And the question is, if they don’t bail out the cities, how are the cities going to operate? Certainly, China has never let markets steer the economy, the government steers the markets. That’s what socialism is as opposed to finance capitalism. So, the question is, you can let localities go broke and yet you’re not going to destroy any of the physical assets of the localities, and all of this is going to be in place. The question is how are you going to arrange the flow of income to all of these roads and buildings and land that’s in place? How do you create a system? Essentially, they’re saying well, if we’re industrial engineers, how do we just plan things? Forget credit, forget property claims, forget the rentier claims. How are we just going to design an economy that operates most efficiently? And that’s what they’re working on now to resolve this situation because it’s gotten fairly critical.
Pepe: Yes, especially in the countryside. Well, I think, a very good metaphor in terms of comparing both systems are investment in infrastructure. You travel to China a lot so, you’ve seen. You’ll travel through high-speed rail. You’ll see those fantastic airports, in Pudong or the new airport in Beijing. And then you’ll take the Acela to go from Washington to New York City, which is something that I used to do years ago. And the comparison is striking. Isn’t it?
Or if you go to France, for instance, when France started development of the TGV, which in terms of a national infrastructure network, is one of the best networks on the planet. And the French started doing this 30 years ago, even more. Is there…it’s not in terms of way out, but if we analyze the minutia, it’s obvious that following the American finance utilization system, we could never have something remotely similar happening in United States in terms of building infrastructure.
So, do you see any realistic bypass mechanism in terms of improving American infrastructure, especially in the big cities?
Michael: No, and there are two reasons for that. No. 1, let’s take a look at the long-term railroads. The railroads go through the center of town or even in the countryside, all along the railroads, the railroads brought business and all the businesses had been located as close to the railroad tracks as they could.
Factories with sightings off the railroad, hotels and especially right through the middle of town where you have the railway gates going up and down. In order to make a high-speed rail as in China, you need a dedicated roadway without trucks and cars, imagine a car going through a railway gate at 350 miles an hour.
So, when I would go from Beijing to Tianjin, here’s the high-speed rail, there’s one highway on one side, one highway on the other side. There’ll be underpasses. But there it goes straight now. How can you suppose you would have a straight Acela line from Washington up to Boston when all along the line, there’s all this real estate right along the line that has been built up? There’s no way you can get a dedicated roadway without having to tear down all of this real estate that’s on either side and the cost of making the current owners whole would be prohibitive. And anywhere you would go, that’s not in the center of the city, you would also have to have the problem that there’s already private property there.
And there’s no legal, constitutional way for such a physical investment to be made. China was able to make this investment because it was still largely rural. It wasn’t as built up along the railways. It didn’t have any particular area that was built up right where the railroad already was.
So certainly, any high-speed rail could not go where the current railways would be, and they’d have to go on somebody’s land. And, there’s also, what do you do if you want to get to New York and Long Island from New Jersey?
Sixty years ago, when I went into Wall Street, the cost of getting and transporting goods from California to Newark, New Jersey, was as large as from Newark right across the Hudson River to New York, not only because of the mafia and control of the local labor unions, but because of the tunnels. Right now, the tunnels from New Jersey to New York are broke, they are leaking, the subways in New York City, which continually break down because there was a hurricane a few years ago and the switches were made in the 1940s. The switches are 80 years old. They had water damage and the trains have to go at a crawl. But the city and state, because it is not collecting the real estate tax and other taxes and because ridership fell on the subways to about 20 percent, the city’s broke. They’re talking about 70 percent of city services being cut back. They’re talking about cutting back the subways to 40 percent capacity, meaning everybody will have to get in — when there’s still a virus and not many people are wearing masks, and there was no means of enforcing masks here.
So, there’s no way that you can rebuild the infrastructure because, for one thing the banking system here has subsidized for a hundred years junk economics saying you have to balance the budget. If the government creates credit it’s inflationary as if when banks create credit, it’s not inflationary. Well, the monetary effect is the same, no matter who creates the money. And so, Biden has already said that President Trump ran a big deficit, we’re going to run a bunch of surpluses or a budget balance. And he was advocating that all along. Essentially Biden is saying we have to increase unemployment by 20 percent, lower wages by 20 percent, shrink the economy by about 10 percent in order to, in order for the banks not to lose money.
“You’re going to price the American economy even further out of business because they say that public investment is socialism.”
And, we’re going to privatize but we are going to do it by selling the hospitals, the schools, the parks, the transportation to finance, to Wall Street finance capital groups. And so, you can imagine what’s going to happen if the Wall Street groups buy the infrastructure. They’ll do what happened to Chicago when it sold all the parking meters, they’ll say, OK, instead of 25 cents an hour, it’s now charged $3 an hour. Instead of a $2 for the subway, let’s make it $8.
You’re going to price the American economy even further out of business because they say that public investment is socialism. Well, it’s not socialism.It’s industrial capitalism. It’s industrialization, that’s basic economics. The idea of what, and how an economy works is so twisted academically that it’s the antithesis of what Adam Smith, John Stewart Mill and Marx all talked about. For them a free- market economy was an economy free of rentiers. Free of rent, it didn’t have any rent seeking. But now for the Americans, a free-market economy is free for the rentiers, free for the landlord, free for the banks to make a killing. And that is basically the class war back in business with a vengeance. That blocks and is preventing any kind infrastructure recovery. I don’t see how it can possibly take place.
Pepe: Well, based on what you just described, there is a process of turning the United States into a giant Brazil. In fact, this is what the Brazilian Finance Minister Paulo Guedes, a Pinochetista, as you know Michael, has been doing with the Brazilian economy for the past two years, privatizing everything and selling everything to big Brazilian interests and with lots of Wall Street interests involved as well. So, this is a recipe that goes all across the Global South as well. And it’s fully copied all across the Global South with no way out now.
Michael: Yes, and this is promoted by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. And when I was brought down to Brazil to meet with the council of economic advisers under Lula, [Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, former president of Brazil], they said, well the whole problem is that Lula’s been obliged to let the banks do the planning.
So, basically free markets and libertarianism is adopting central planning, but with central planning by the banks. America is a much more centrally planned economy than China. China is letting a hundred flowers bloom; America has concentrated the planning and the resource allocation in Wall Street. And that’s the central planning that is much more corrosive than any government planning, could be. Now the irony is that China’s sending its students to America to study economics. And, most of the Chinese I had talked to say, well we went to America to take economics courses because that gives us a prestige here in China.
I’m working now, with Chinese groups trying to develop a “reality economics” to be taught in China as different from American economics.
“America has concentrated the planning and the resource allocation in Wall Street. And that’s the central planning that is much more corrosive than any government planning, could be.”
Pepe: Exactly, because of what they study at Beijing University, Renmin or Tsinghua is not exactly what they would study in big American universities. Probably what they study in the U.S. is what not to do in China. When they go back to China, what they won’t be doing. It’s an object lesson for what to avoid.
Michael, I’d like to go back to what the BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa] had been discussing in the 2000s when Lula was still president of Brazil and many of his ideas deeply impressed, especially Hu Jintao at the time, which is bypassing the U.S. dollar. Well, at the moment obviously we’re still at 87 percent of international transactions still in U.S. dollars. So, we are very far away from it, but if you have a truly sovereign economy, which is the case of China, which we can say is the case of Russia to a certain extent and obviously in a completely different framework, Iran. Iran is a completely sovereign, independent economy from the West. The only way to try to develop different mechanisms to not fall into the rentier mind space would be to bypass the U.S. dollar.
Michael: Yes, for many reasons. For one thing the United States can simply print the dollars and lend to other countries and then say, now you have to pay us interest. Well, Russia doesn’t need American dollars. It can print its own rubles to provide labor. There’s no need for a foreign currency at all for domestic spending, the only reason you would have to borrow a foreign currency is to balance your exchange rate, or to finance a trade deficit. But China doesn’t have a trade deficit. And in fact, if China were to work to accept more dollars, Americans would love to buy into the Chinese market and make a profit there, but that would push up China’s exchange rate and that would make it more difficult for her to make its exports because the exchange rate would come up not because it’s exporting more but because it’s letting American dollars come in and push it up.
Well, fortunately, President Trump as if he works for the Chinese National Committee, said, look, we don’t want to really hurt China by pushing up its currency and we want to keep it competitive. So, I’m going to prevent American companies from lending money to China, I’m going to isolate it and so he’s helping them protect their economy. And in Russia he said, look Russia really needs to feed itself. And, there’s a real danger that when the Democrats come in, there are a lot of anti-Russians in the Biden administration. They may go to war. They may do to Russia what they tried to do to China in the ‘50s. Stop exporting food and grain. And only Canada was able to break the embargo. So, we’re going to impose sanctions on Russia. So immediately, what happened is Russia very quickly became the largest grain exporter in the world. And instead of importing cheese from the Baltics, it created its own cheese industry. So, Trump said look, I know that Russians followed the American idea of not having protective tariffs, they need protective tariffs. They’re not doing it. We’re going to help them out by just not importing from them and really helping them.
Pepe: Yeah. Michael, what do you think Black Rock wants from the Chinese? You know that they are making a few inroads at the highest levels? Of course, I’m sure you’re aware of that. And also, JP Morgan, Citibank, etc. What do they really want?
Michael: They’d like to be able to create dollars to begin to buy and make loans to real estate; let companies grow, let the real estate market grow and make capital gains.
The way people get wealthy today isn’t by making an income, it’s been by making a capital gain. Total returns are current income plus the capital gains. As for capital gains each year; the land value gains alone are larger than the whole GDP growth from year to year. So that’s where the money is, that’s where the wealth is. So, they are after speculative capital gains, they would like to push money into the Chinese stock market and real estate market. See the prices go up and then inflate the prices by buying in and then sell out at the high price. Pull the money out, get a capital gain and let the economy crash, I mean that’s the business plan.
Pepe: Exactly. But Beijing will never allow that.
Michael: Well, here’s the problem right now, they know that Biden is pushing militarily aggressive people in his cabinet. There’s one kind of overhead that China is really trying to avoid and that’s the military overhead because if you spend money on the military, you can’t spend it on the real economy. They’re very worried about the military and they say, how do we deter the Biden administration from actually trying a military adventure in the South China Sea or elsewhere? They said well, fortunately America is multi-layered. They don’t think of America as a group. They realize there’s a layer and they say, who’s going to represent our interests?
“There’s one kind of overhead that China is really trying to avoid and that’s the military overhead because if you spend money on the military, you can’t spend it on the real economy.”
Well, Blackstone and Wall Street are going to represent their interests. Then I think one of the Chinese officials last week gave a big speech on this very thing, saying look, our best hope in stopping America’s military adventurism in China is to have Wall Street acting as our support because after all, Wall Street is the main campaign contributor and the president works for the campaign contributors.
The politician works for the campaign contributors. They’re in it for the money! So fortunately, we have Wall Street on our side, we’ve got control of the political system and they’re not there to go to war so that helps explain why a month ago they let wholly-owned U.S. banks and bankers in. On the one hand, they don’t like the idea of somebody outside the government creating credit for reasons that the economy doesn’t need. If they needed it, the Bank of China would do it. They have no need for foreign currency to come in to make loans in domestic currency, out of China.
The only reason that they could do it is No. 1, it helps meet the World Trade Organization’s principles and, No. 2, especially during this formative few months of the Biden administration, it helps to have Wall Street saying; we can make a fortune in China, go easy on them and that essentially counters the military hawks in Washington.
Pepe: So, do you foresee a scenario when Black Rock starts wreaking havoc in the Shanghai stock exchange for instance?
Michael: It would love to do that. It would love to move things up and down. The money’s made by companies with the stock market going up and down; the zigzag. So of course, it wants to do a predatory zigzag. The question is whether China will impose a tax to stop this, all sorts of financial transactions. That’s what’s under discussion now. They know exactly what Black Rock wants to do because they have some very savvy billionaire Chinese advisers that are quite good. I can tell you stories, but I better not.
Pepe: Okay. If it’s not okay to tell it all, tell us part of the story then.
Michael: The American banks have been cultivating leading Chinese people by providing them enough money to make money here, that they think that, okay they will now try to make money in the same way in China and we can join in. It’s a conflict of systems again, between the finance capital system and industrial socialism. You don’t get any of this discussion in the U.S. press, which is why I read what you write because in the U.S. press, the neocons talk about the fake idea of Greek history and fake idea of the Thucydides’ problem of a country jealous of another country’s development.
There’s no jealousy between America and China. They’re different, they have their own way. We are going to destroy them. And if you look at the analogy that the Americans draw —and this is how the Pentagon thinks — with the war between Athens and Sparta. It’s hard to tell, which is which. Here you have Athens, a democracy backing other democracies and having the military support of the democracies and the military in these democracies all had to pay Athens protection money for the military support and that’s the money that Athens got to ostensibly support its navy and protection that built up all of the Athenian public buildings and everything else. So, that’s a democracy exploiting its allies, to enrich itself via the military. Then you have Sparta, which was funding all of the oligarchies, and it was helping the oligarchies overthrow democracies. Well, that was America too. So, America is both sides of the Thucydides war if the democracy is exploiting the fellow democracies and is the supporter of oligarchies in Brazil, Latin America, Africa and everyone else.
So, you could say the Thucydides problem was between two sides, two aspects of America and has nothing to do with China at all except, for the fact that the whole war was a war between economic systems. They’re acting as if somehow if only China did not export to us, we could be re-industrialized and somehow export to Europe and the Third World.
And as you and I have described, it’s over. We painted ourselves into such a debt corner that without writing down the debts, we’re in the same position that the Eurozone is in. There’s so much money that goes to the creditors to the top 1 percent or 5 percent that there is no money for capital investment, there is no money for growth. And, since 1980 as you know, real wages in America have been stable. All the growth has been in property owners and predators and the FIRE sector, the rest of the economy is in stagnation. And now the coronavirus has simply acted as a catalyst to make it very clear that the game is over; it’s time to move away from the homeowner economy to rentier economy, time for Blackstone to be the landlord. America wants to recreate the British landlord class and essentially what we’re seeing now is like the Norman invasion of England taking over the land and the infrastructure. That’s what Blackstone would love to do in China.
“There’s so much money that goes to the creditors to the top 1 percent or 5 percent that there is no money for capital investment, there is no money for growth.”
Pepe: Wow. I’m afraid that they may have a lot of leeway by some members of the Beijing leadership now, because as you know very well, it’s not a consensus in the political arena.
Michael: We’re talking about Volume II and III of Capital.
Pepe: Exactly. But you know, you were talking about debt. Coming back to that, in fact I just checked this morning, apparently global debt as it stands today is $277 trillion, which is something like 365 percent of global GDP. What does that mean in practice?
Michael: Yeah, well fortunately this is discussed in the 19th century and there was a word for that — fictitious capital — it’s a debt that can’t be paid, but you’ll keep it on the books anyway. And every country has this. You could say the question now, and The Financial Times just had an article a few days ago that China’s claims on Third World countries on the Belt and Road Initiative is fictitious capital, because how can it collect?
Well, China’s already thought of that. It doesn’t want money. It wants the raw materials. It wants to be paid in real things. But a debt that can’t be paid, can only be paid either by foreclosing on the debtors or by writing down the debts and obviously a debt that can’t be paid won’t be paid.
“Fictitious capital — it’s a debt that can’t be paid, but you’ll keep it on the books anyway. And every country has this.”
And so, you have not only Marx using the word fictitious capital. At the other end of the spectrum, you had Henry George talking about fictive capital. In other words, these are property claims that have no real capital behind them. There’s no capital that makes profit. That’s just a property claim for payment or a rentier claim for payment.
So, the question is, can you make money somehow without having any production at all, without having wages, without having profits, without any capital? Can you just have asset grabbing and buying-and-selling assets? And as long as you have the Federal Reserve in America, come in, Trump’s $10 trillion Covid program gave $2 trillion to the population at large with these $1,200 checks, that my wife and I got, and $8 trillion all just to buy stocks and bonds. None of this was to build infrastructure. None of this $8 trillion was to build a single factory. None of this 8 trillion was to employ a single worker. It was all just to support the prices of stocks and bonds, and to keep the illusion that the economy had not stopped growing. Well, it’s growing for the 5 percent. So, it’s all become fictitious. And if you look at the GDP as I said, it’s fictitious.
Pepe: And the most extraordinary thing is none of that is discussed in American media. There’s not a single word about what you would have been describing.
Michael: It’s not even discussed in academia. Our graduates at the university of Missouri at Kansas City, we’re all trained in Modern Monetary Theory. And as hired professors they have to be able to publish in the refereed journals and the refereed journals are all essentially controlled by the Chicago School. So, you have a censorship of the kind of ideas that we’re talking about. You can’t get it into the economic journals, so you can’t get it into the economics curriculum. So, where on earth are you going to get it? If you didn’t have the internet you wouldn’t be discussing at all. Most of my books sell mainly in China, more than in all the other countries put together so I can discuss these things there. I stopped publishing in orthodox journals so many years ago because it’s talking to the deaf.
“None of this $8 trillion was to build a single factory, employee, a single worker.”
Pepe: Absolutely. Yeah. Can I ask you a question about Russia, Michael? There is a raging debate in Russia for many years now between let’s say the Eurasianists and the Atlanticists. It involves of course, economic policy under Putin, industrial capitalism Russian style. The Eurasianists basically say that the central problem with Russia is how the Russian central bank is basically affiliated with all the mechanisms that you know so well, that it is an Atlanticist Trojan Horse inside the Russian economy. How do you see it?
Michael: Russia was brainwashed by the West when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991. First of all, the IMF announced in advance that there was a big meeting in Houston with the IMF and the World Bank. And the IMF published all of its reports saying, first you don’t want inflation in Russia so let’s wipe out all of the Russian savings with hyperinflation, which they did. They then said, well now to cure the hyperinflation the Russian central bank needs a stable currency and you need a backup for the currency. You will need to back it with U.S. dollars.
“Russia was brainwashed by the West when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991.”
So, from the early 1990s, as you know, labor was going unpaid. The Russian central bank could have created the rubles to pay the domestic labor and to keep the factories in place. But, the IMF advisers from Harvard said, no you’ll have to borrow U.S. dollars. I met with people from the Hermitage Fund and the Renaissance Fund and others. We had meetings and I met with the investors. Russia was paying 100 percent interest for years to leading American financial institutions for money that it didn’t need and could have created itself. Russia was so dispirited with Stalinism that, essentially, it thought the opposite of Stalinism must be what they have in America.
“…to destroy a country, you don’t need an army anymore. All you have to do is teach it American economics.”
They thought that America was going to tell it how America got rich, but America didn’t want to tell Russia how it got rich, but instead wanted to make money off Russia. They didn’t get it. They trusted the Americans. They really didn’t understand that, industrial capitalism that Marx described had metamorphosized into finance capitalism and was completely different.
And that’s because Russia didn’t charge rent, it didn’t charge interest. I gave three speeches before the Duma, urging it to impose a land tax. Some of the people I noticed, Ed Dodson was there with us and we were all trying to convince Russia, don’t let this land be privatized. If you let it be privatized, then you’re going to have such high rents and housing costs in Russia that you’re not going to be able to essentially compete for an industrial growth. Well, the politician who brought us there, Viatcheslav Zolensky was sort of maneuvered out of the election by the American advisers.
The Americans put billions of dollars into essentially financing American propagandists to destroy Russia, mainly from the Harvard Institute of International Development. And essentially, they were a bunch of gangsters and the prosecutors in Boston were about to prosecute them.
The attorney general of Boston was going to bring a big case for Harvard against the looting of Russia and the corruption of Russia. And I was asked to organize and to bring a number of Russian politicians and industrialists over to say how this destroyed everything. Well, Harvard settled out of court and essentially that made the perpetrators the leading university people up there. (I’m associated with Harvard Anthropology Department, not the Economics Department.)
So, we never had a chance to bring my witnesses, and have our report on what happened, but I published for the Russian Academy of Sciences a long study of how all of this destruction of Russia was laid out in advance at the Houston meetings by the IMF. America went to the leading bureaucrats and said; look, we can make you rich why don’t you register the factories in your own name, and if you’re registered in your own name, you know, then you’ll own it. And then you can cash out. You can essentially sell, but obviously you can’t sell to the Russians because the IMF has just wiped out all of their savings.
You can only cash out by selling to the West. And so, the Russian stock market became the leading stock market in the world from 1994 with the Norilsk Nickel and the seven bankers in the bank loans for shares deal through 1997. And, I had worked for a firm Scutter Stevens and, the head adviser, a former student of mine didn’t want to invest in Russia because she said, this is just a rip off, it’s going to crash. She was fired for not investing. They said look, we know that’s going to crash. That’s the whole idea, it’s going to crash. We can make a mint off it before the crash. And then when it crashes, we can make another mint by selling short and then all over again. Well, the problem is that the system that was put in with the privatization that’s occurred, how do you have Russia’s wealth used to develop its own industry and its own economy like China was doing. Well, China has rules for all of this, but Russia doesn’t have rules, it’s really all centralized, it’s President Putin that keeps it this way.
Well, this was the great fear of the West. When you had Mikhail Gorbachev beginning to plan to do pretty much what is done today, to restrain private capital, the IMF said hold off. We’re not going to make any loans to stabilize the Russian currency until you remove Mr. Primakov.
The U.S. said we won’t deal with Russia until you remove him. So, he was pushed out and he was probably the smartest guy at the time there. So, they thought [President Vladimir] Putin was going to be sort of the patsy. And he almost single-handedly, holding the oligarchs in and saying, look, you can keep your money as long as you do exactly what the government would do. You can keep the gains as long as you’re serving the public interest.
But none of this resulted into a legal system, a tax system, and a system where the government actually does get most of the benefits. Russia could have emerged in 1990 as one the most competitive economies in Eurasia by giving all of the houses to its people instead of giving Norilsk Nickel and the oil companies to Yukos. It could have given everybody their own house and their own apartment, the same thing in the Baltics. And instead it didn’t give the land out to the people. And Russians were paying 3 percent of their income for housing in 1990. And rent is the largest element in every household’s budget.
“Russia could have emerged in 1990 as one the most competitive economies in Eurasia by giving all of the houses to its people.”
So, Russia could have had low-price labor. It could have financed all of its capital investment for the government by taxing, collecting the rising rental value. Instead, Russian real estate was privatized on credit and it was even worse in the Baltics.
In Latvia, where I was research director for the Riga Graduate School of Law, Latvia borrowed primarily from Swedish banks. And so, in order to buy a house, you had to borrow from Swedish banks. And they said, well, we’re not going to lend in the Latvian currency because it can go down. So, you have a choice; Swiss Francs or German Marks or U.S. Dollars. And so, all of this rent was paid in foreign currency. There came an outflow that essentially drained all the Baltic economies. Latvia lost 20 percent of its population. Estonia and Lithuania followed suit.
And of course, the worst hit by neo-liberalism was Russia. As you know, President Putin said that neo-liberalism cost Russia more of its population than World War II. And you know that to destroy a country, you don’t need an army anymore. All you have to do is teach it American economics.
Pepe: Yes, I remember well, I arrived in Russia in the winter of 91 coming from China. So, I transited from the Chinese miracle. In fact, a few days after Deng Xiaoping’s famous Southern tour when he went to Guangzhou and Shenzhen. And that was the kick for the 1990s boom, in fact a few years before the handover, and then I took the Trans-Siberian and I arrived in Moscow a few days after the end, in fact, a few weeks after the end of the Soviet Union.
But yeah, I remember the Americans arrived almost at the exact minute, wasn’t it, Michael? I think they already were there in the spring of 1992. If I’m not mistaken.
Michael: The Houston meeting was in 1990. But all before that already in, 1988 and 1989, there was a huge outflow of embezzlement money via Latvia. The assistant dean of the university who ended up creating Nordex, essentially the money was all flying out because Ventspils in Latvia, was where Russian oil was exported and it was all fake invoicing. So, the Russian kleptocrats basically made their money off false export invoicing, ostensibly selling it for one price and having the rest paid abroad and, this was all organized through Latvia and the man who did it later moved to Israel and finally gave a billion dollars back to Russia so that he went on to live safely for the rest of his life in Israel.
Pepe: Well, the crash of the ruble in 1998 was what, roughly one year after the crash of the baht and the whole Asian financial crisis, no? It was interlinked of course, but let me see if I have a question for you, in fact, I’m just thinking out loud now. If the economies of Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia, the case of South Korea and Russia, were more integrated at the time as they are trying to integrate now, do you think that the Asian financial crisis would have been preventable in 1997?
Michael: Well, look at what happened in Malaysia with Mohammad Mahathir. Malaysia avoided it. So of course, it was preventable, and they had the capital controls. All you would have needed was to do what Malaysia did. But you needed an economic theory for that.
And essentially the current mode of warfare is to conquer the brains of a country to shape how people think and how they perceive the economy. And if you can twist their view into an unreality economics, where they think that you’re there to help them not to take money out of them, then you’ve got them hooked. That was what happened in Asia. Asia thought it was getting rich off the dollars inflows and then the IMF and all the creditors pulled the plug, crash the industry. And now that all of a sudden you had a crash, they bought up Korean industry and other South Asian industries at giveaway prices.
That’s what you do. You lend the money; you pull the plug. You then let them go under and you pick up the pieces. That’s what Blackstone did after the Obama depression began, when Obama saved the banks, not the constituency, the mortgage borrowers. Essentially that’s Blackstone’s modus operandi to pick up distressed prices at a bankruptcy sale, but you need to lend money and then crash it in order to make that work.
Pepe: Michael, I think we have only five minutes left. So, I would expect you to go on a relatively long answer and I’m really dying for it. It’s about debt, it about the debt trap. And it’s about the New Silk Roads, the Belt and Road Initiative, because I think rounding up our discussion and coming back to the theme of debt and global debt.
The No. 1 criticism apart from the demonization of China that you hear from American media and a few American academics as well against the Belt and Road is that it’s creating a debt trap for Southeast Asian nations, Central Asian nations and nations in Africa, etc…. Obviously, I expect you to debunk that, but the framework is there is no other global development project as extensive and as complex as Belt and Road, which as you know very well was initially dreamed up by the Ministry of Commerce. Then they sold it more or less to Xi Jinping who got the geopolitical stamp on it, announcing it, simultaneously, (which was a stroke of genius) in Central Asia in Astana and then in Southeast Asia in Jakarta. So, he was announcing the overland corridors through the heartland and the Maritime Silk Road at the same time.
At the time people didn’t see the reach and depth of all that. And now of course, finally the Trump administration woke up and saw what was in play, not only across Eurasia but reaching Africa and even selected parts of Latin America as well. And obviously the only sort of criticism, and it’s not even a fact-based criticism, that I’ve seen about the Belt and Road is it’s creating a debt trap because as you know Laos is indebted, Sri Lanka is indebted, Kyrgyzstan is indebted etc. So, how do you view Belt and Road within the larger framework of the West and China, East Asia and Eurasia relations? And how would you debunk misconceptions created, especially in the U S that this is a debt trap.
Six proposed corridors of Belt and Road Initiative, showing Italy inside circle, on maritime blue route. (Lommes, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)
Michael: There are two points to answer there. The first is how the Belt and Road began. And as you pointed out, the Belt and Road began, when China said, what is it we need to grow and how do we grow within our neighboring countries so we don’t have to depend upon the West, and we don’t have to depend on sea trade that can be shut down? How do we get to roads instead of seas in a way that we can integrate our economy with the neighboring economies so that there can be mutual growth?
So, this was done pretty much on industrial engineering grounds. Here’s where you need the roads and the railroads. And then how do we finance it? Well, The Financial Times article, last week, said didn’t the Chinese know that [with past] railroad development, they’ve all gone broke? The Panama Canal went broke, you know, the first few times there were European railway investment in Latin America in the 19th century, that all went broke.
Well, what they don’t get is China’s aim was not to make a profit off the railroads.
The railroads were built to be part of the economy. They don’t want to make profit. It was to make the real economy grow, not to make profits for the owners of the railroad stocks. The Western press can’t imagine that you’re building a railroad without trying to make money out of it.
Then you get to the debt issue.
Countries only have a debt crisis if their debt is in a foreign currency. The first way that the United States gained power was to fight against its allies. The great enemy of America was England and it made the British block their currency in the 1940s. And so, India and other countries, that had all these currencies holdings in sterling, were able to convert it all into dollars.
The whole move of the U.S. was to denominate world debt in dollars. So that No. 1, U.S. banks would end up with the interest in financing the debt. And No. 2, the United States could, by using the debt leverage, control domestic politics.
Well, as you’re seeing right now in Argentina, for instance, Argentina is broke because it owes foreign-dollar debt. When I started the first Third World bond fund in 1990 at Scutter Stevens, Brazil and China and Argentina were paying 45 percent interest per year, 45 percent per year in dollars debt. Yet we tried to sell them in America. No American would buy. We went to Europe, no European buy this debt. And so, we worked with Merrill Lynch and Merrill Lynch was able to make an offshore fund in the Dutch West Indies and all of the debt was sold to the Brazilian ruling class in the central bank and the Argentinian bankers in the ruling class, we thought oh, that’s wonderful.
We know that they’re going to pay the foreign Yankee Dollars debt because the Yankee Dollars debt is owed to themselves. They’re the Yankees! They’re the client oligarchy. And you know, from Brazil client oligarchy is, you know, they’re cosmopolitan, that’s the word. So, the problem is that on the Belt and Road, how did these other countries pay the debt to China?
Well, the key there again is the de-dollarization, and one way to solve it is since we’re trying to get finance out of the picture, we’re doing something very much like, Japan did with Canada in the 1960s. It made loans to develop Canadian copper mines taking its payment, not in Canadian dollars, that would have pushed up the yen’s exchange rate, but in copper.
So, China says, you know you don’t have to pay currency for this debt. We didn’t build a railroad to make a profit and you want, we can print all the currency we want. We don’t need to make a profit. We made the Belt and Road because it’s part of our geopolitical attempt to create what we need to be prosperous and have a prosperous region. So, these are self-reinforcing mutual gain. Well, so that’s what the West doesn’t get — mutual gain? Are we talking anthropology? What do you mean mutual? This is capitalism! So, the West doesn’t understand what the original aim of the Belt and Road was, and it wasn’t to make a profitable railroad to enable people to buy and sell railway stocks. And it wasn’t to make toll roads to sell off to Goldman Sachs, you know. We’re dealing with two different economic systems, and it’s very hard for one system to understand the other system because of the tunnel vision that you get when you get a degree in economics.
“We’re dealing with two different economic systems, and it’s very hard for one system to understand the other system because of the tunnel vision that you get when you get a degree in economics.”
Pepe: Belt and Road loans are long-term and at very low interest and they are renegotiable. They are renegotiating with the Pakistanis all the time for instance.
Michael: China’s intention is not to repeat an Asia crisis of 1997. It doesn’t gain anything by forcing a crisis because it’s not trying to come in and buy property at a discount at a distressed sale. It has no desire to create a distressed sale. So obviously, the idea is the capacity to pay. Now, this whole argument occurred in the 1920s, between [John Maynard] Keynes and his opponents that wanted to collect German reparations and, Keynes made it very clear. What is the capacity to pay? It’s the ability to export and the ability to obtain foreign currency. Well, China’s not looking for foreign currency. It is looking for economic returns but the return is to the whole society, the return isn’t from a railroad. The return is for the entire economy because it’s looking at the economy as a system.
The way that neoliberalism works, it divides the economy in parts, and it makes every part trying to make a gain, and if you do that, then you don’t have any infrastructure that’s lowering the cost for the other parts. You have every part fighting for itself. You don’t look at in terms of a system the way China’s looking at it. That’s the great advantage of Marxism, you’ll look at the system, not just the parts.
Pepe: Exactly and this is at the heart of the Chinese concept of a community with a shared future for mankind, which is the approximate translation from Mandarin. So, we compare community with a shared future for mankind, which is, let’s say the driving force between the idea of Belt and Road, expanded across Eurasia, Africa and Latin America as well with our good old friends’, “greed is good” concept from the eighties, which is still ruling America apparently.
Michael: And the corollary is that non-greed is bad.
Pepe: Exactly and non-greed is evil.
Michael: I see. I think we ran out of time. I do. I don’t know if Alanna wants to step in to wrap it up.
Michael: There may be somebody who has a question.
Pepe: Somebody has a question? That’ll be fantastic.
Alanna: There is a question from Ed Dodson. He wanted to know why there are these ghost cities in China? And who’s financing all this real estate that’s developed, but nobody’s living there? We’ve all been hearing about that. So, what is happening with that?
Michael: Okay. China had most of its population living in the countryside and it made many deals with Chinese landholders who have land rights, and they said, if you will give up your land right to the community, we will give you free apartment in the city that you could rent out.
So, China has been building apartments in cities and trading these basically in exchange to support what used to be called a rural exodus. China doesn’t need as many farmers on the land as it now has, and the question is how are you going to get them into cities? So, China began building these cities and many of these apartments are owned by people who’ve got them in exchange for trading their land rights. The deals are part of the rural reconstruction program.
Alanna: Do you think it was a good deal? Vacant apartments everywhere.
Pepe: You don’t have ghost cities in Xinjiang for instance, Xinjiang is under-populated, it’s mostly desert. And it’s extremely sensitive to relocate people to Xinjiang. So basically, they concentrated on expanding Urumqi. When you arrive in Urumqi it is like almost like arriving in, Guangzhou. It’s enormous. It’s a huge generic city in the middle of the desert. And it’s also a high-tech Mecca, which is something that very few people in the West know. And is the direct link between the eastern seaboard via Belt and Road to Central Asia.
Last year I was on an amazing trip. I went to the three borders, the Tajik-Xinjiang border, Kyrgiz-Xinjiang border and the Kazakh-Xinjiang border, which is three borders in one. It’s a fascinating area to explore and specially to talk to the local populations, the Kyrgiz, the Kazakhs and the Tajiks.
How do they see the Belt and Road directly affecting their lives from now on?
So, you don’t see something spectacular for instance, in the Xinjiang – Kazakh boarder, there is one border for the trucks, lots of them like in Europe, crossing from all points, from Central Asia to China and bringing Chinese merchandise to Central Asia.
There’s the train border, which is a very simple two tracks and the pedestrian border, which is very funny because you have people arriving in buses from all parts of Central Asia. They stop on the Kazakh border. They take a shuttle, they clear customs for one day, they go to a series of shopping malls on the Chinese side of the border. They buy like crazy, shop till it drops, I don’t know for 12 hours? And then they cross back the same day because the visa is for one day. They step on their buses and they go back.
So, for the moment it’s sort of a pedestrian form of Belt and Road, but in the future, we’re going to have high-speed rail. We’re going to have, well the pipelines are already there as Michael knows, but it’s fascinating to see on the spot. You see the closer integration; you see for instance Uyghurs traveling back and forth. You know, Uyghurs that have families in Kyrgizstan for instance, I met some Uyghurs in Kyrgyzstan who do the back-and-forth all the time. And they said, there’s no problem. They are seen as businessmen so there’s no interference. There are no concentration camps involved, you know, but you have to go to these places to see how it works on the ground and with Covid, that’s the problem for us journalists who travel, because for one year we cannot go anywhere and Xinjiang was on my travel list this year, Afghanistan as well, Mongolia.
These are all parts of Belt and Road or future parts of Belt and Road, like Afghanistan. The Chinese and the Russians as well; they want to bring Afghanistan in a peace process organized by Asians themselves without the United States, within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, because they want Afghanistan to be part of the intersection of Belt and Road and Eurasian Economic Union. This is something Michael knows very well. You don’t see this kind of discussions in the American media for instance, integration of Eurasia on the ground, how it’s actually happening.
Michael: That’s called cognitive dissonance.
Alanna: To try to understand it gets you cognitive dissonance.
Pepe: Oh yeah, of course. And obviously you are a Chinese agent, a Russian agent. And so, I hear that all the time. Well, in our jobs we hear that all the time. Especially, unfortunately from our American friends.
Alanna: Okay. I know you have other things to do. This has been fabulous. I want to thank you so much, both of you, uh, with so easy to get attendance for this webinar. There were 20 people in five minutes enrolled and in two days we were at capacity. So, I know there are many more people who would love to hear you talk another time, whenever you two are so willing. And I think you both got much out of your first conversation in person. Everybody listening knows these two wonderful gentlemen, they have written more than 10 books, and they have traveled all over the world. They are on the top of geopolitical and geoeconomic analysis, and they are caring, loving people. So, you can see that these are the people we need to be listening to and understanding all around the world.
This was part ONE.
Now for the follow up; part TWO…
INDISPENSABLE READS: In Quest of a Multi-Polar World
Michael Hudson and Pepe Escobar resume their conversation about a global monetary system that appears headed for divorce.
“Free market meant giving power to the monopolists, to the oppressors, to violence. A free market was where armies can come in, take over your country, impose a client dictatorship like [Gen. Augusto] Pinochet in Chile or the neo-Nazis in the Ukraine. And you call that a free market…”
Michael Hudson: Fifty ago, I wrote Super Imperialism about basically how America dominates the world financially and gets a free ride.
I wrote it right after America went off gold in 1971, when the Vietnam War, which was responsible for the entire balance of payments deficit, forced the country to go off gold. And everybody at that time worried the dollar was going to go down. There’d be hyperinflation. And what happened was something entirely different.
Once there was no gold, America strong-armed its allies to invest in U.S. Treasury bonds because their central banks don’t buy companies. They don’t buy raw materials. All they could buy is other central bank’s treasury bonds. So, all of a sudden, the only thing that other people could buy with all the dollars coming in were U.S. Treasury securities.
And the securities they bought essentially were to finance yet more war making and the balance of payments deficit from war and the 800 military bases America has around the world. And the largest customer, I think we discussed it before, are the Defense Department and the CIA that looked at it [Super Imperialism] as a how-to-do it book. Well, that was 50 years ago.
And what I’ve done is not only re-edit the book and add more information that’s come out, but I’ve picked up the last 50 years and how it’s absolutely transformed the whole world. And it’s a new kind of imperialism.
There was still a view 50 years ago that imperialism was [essentially] economic. And this is the view that there’s still a rivalry for instance, between America and China or America and Europe and other countries.
But I think the whole world has changed so much in the last 50 years that what we have now is not really so much a conflict between America and China or America and Russia, but between a financial system economy run by finance and an economy run by governments — democratic or less democratic, but certainly a mixed economy.
Well, everything that made industrial capitalism rich, everything that made America so strong in the 19th century, through its protective tariffs, through its public infrastructure investment all the way down through World War II and the aftermath. We had a mixed economy in America, and that was very balanced. Europe had a mixed economy. Every economy since Babylon and Rome has been a mixed economy, but in America you’ve had since 1980 something entirely different. That was not foreseen by anybody because it seemed to be so disruptive.
And what that was, was the financial sector saying we need liberty and by liberty, meaning we have to take planning and subsidy and economic policy and tax policy out of the hands of government. And put it in the hands of Wall Street.
And so, libertarianism and free market is a centralized economy that is centralized in the hands of the financial centers, Wall Street, the City of London, the Paris Bourse. And what you’re having today is the attempt of the financial sector to take the role that the landlord class had in Europe, from feudal times through the 19th century. It’s a kind of resurgence.
If you look at the whole last 200 years of economic theory — from Adam Smith and, Henry George and Marx, onward — the whole idea was that everybody expected a mixed economy to become more and more productive and to free itself from the landlords, to free itself from banking to make land a public utility.
That was the tax base to make finance basically something public, and government would decide who gets the funding and thus, the idea of finance in the public sector was going to be pretty much what it is in China. You create bank credit in order to finance capital investment in factories. It means the production of machinery, agricultural modernization, of transport, infrastructure of high-speed trains of ports and all of that.
But in the United States and England, you have finance becoming something completely different. Banks don’t lend money to factories. They don’t want money to make means of production. They make money to take over other assets. Eighty percent of bank loans are mortgage loans to transfer the ownership of real estate. And of course that’s what created a middle class in the United States.
The middle class was able to buy its own housing, it didn’t have to pay rent to landlords or absentee owners or warlords and their descendants in England and Europe. They could buy their own. What nobody realized is that if you borrowed the money to take a mortgage, there’s still an economic rental value that is not paid to the landlords. It’s paid to the banks. And so, in the Western civilizations in America and Europe, the banks have played the role that the landlords played a hundred years ago.
And just as the landlord is trying to do everything they could through the House of Lords in England and the upper houses of government in Europe, they’re trying to block any kind of democratic government. And the fight really is against government that would do anything that is not controlled by the 1 percent, by the banks. Essentially the merger between finance insurance and real estate; the FIRE sector. So, you have almost a relapse of capitalism in the West back into feudalism, but feudalism with a financialized twist much more than it was in medieval times.
The fight against China, the fear of China is that you can’t do to China, what you did to Russia. America would love for there to be a [former Russian President Boris] Yeltsin figure in China to say, just give all of the railroads that you’ve built, the high-speed rail, the wealth, all the factories to individuals. And let the individuals run everything and, then we’ll lend them the money, or we’ll buy them out and then we can control them financially.
And China’s not letting that happen. And Russia stopped that from happening. And the fury in the West is that somehow, the American financial system is unable to take over foreign resources, foreign agriculture. It is left only with military means of grabbing them as we are seeing in the near East. And you’re seeing in the Ukraine right now.
Pepe Escobar: Well, as an introduction, Michael that was perfect because now we have the overall framework — geo-economic and historically — at least for the past 70 years.
I have a series of questions for you. I was saving one of these for the end, but I think I should start really the Metallica way. Let’s go heavy metal for a start, right?
So considering what you describe as a new kind of imperialism and the fact that this sort of extended free lunch cannot apply anymore because sovereigns around the world, especially Russia and China, I tried to formulate the idea that there are only three real sovereign powers on the planet, apart from the hegemon; Russia, China, and Iran, these three, which happen to be the main hub and the main focus of not only of the New Silk Roads but of the Eurasia integration process, they are actively working for some sort of change of the rules that predominated for the past 70 years.
So my first question to you would be, do you see any realistic possibility of a, sort of a Bretton Woods 2.0, which would imply the end of the dollar hegemony as we know it, and petrodollar recycling on and on and on, with the very important presence of that oily hacienda in the lands of Arabia. And do you think this is possible considering that President [Vladimir] Putin himself only a few days ago reiterated once again that the U.S. is no longer agreement- capable? So that destroys already the possibility of the emergence of the new rules of the game. But do you think this is still realistically possible?
Michael: I certainly do not see any repetition of a Bretton Woods because as I described in Super Imperialism, the whole of Bretton Woods was designed to make American control over Britain, over Europe total. Bretton Woods was a U.S.-centered system to prevent England from maintaining its empire. That’s okay. To prevent France from maintaining its empire and for America to take over the sterling area and, essentially with the World Bank, to prevent other countries from becoming independent and feeding themselves, to make sure that they supported plantation agriculture, not land reform. The one single fight of the World Bank was to prevent land reform and to make sure that America, and foreign investors, would take over the agriculture of these countries.
And very often people think of capitalism, certainly in the sense that Marx described in Volume One, capitalism is the exploitation of wage labor by employers. But capitalism also is an appropriation of the land rent, the agricultural rent, the natural resource rent, the oil and the mineral rent. And the idea of Bretton Woods was to make sure that other countries could not impose capital controls to prevent American finance coming in and appropriating their resources, of making the loans to foreign governments so that governments would not create their own money to promote their own social development but would have to borrow from the World Bank and the IMF, which essentially meant from the Pentagon and the State Department, in U.S. dollars.
And they would dollarize their economies and the economies would all be sucked. The economic rents from oil, agriculture, mining would all be sucked into the United States. That kind of Bretton Woods cannot be done again. And since Bretton Woods was an idea of centralizing the world’s economic surplus in a single country, the United States, no, that can never be done again.
What is happening? You mentioned the world of free, free lunch, and that’s what was a theme of Super Imperialism, when America issues dollars, for these all end up in central banks and they hold the dollars as a surplus. That means what can they do? All they can do is really lend them to the United States. America got a free lunch. It could spend and spend on its military, on bumping up corporate takeovers of other countries. The dollars have come in and foreign countries couldn’t cash them in for gold. They had nothing to cash them into. And all they could do is finance the U.S. budget deficit by buying Treasury bills.
That’s the irony now, what has happened in the last few years in the fight against Russia and China is America has killed the free lunch because it said, okay, now we’re going to have sanctions against Russia and China. We’re going to all of a sudden grab whatever money you have in foreign banks like we grabbed Venezuela’s money. Let’s go, we’re going to excommunicate you from the bank clearing system. So, you can’t use banking. We’re going to put sanctions against banks that deal with you.
So obviously Russia and China said, okay, we can’t deal with the dollar anymore, because the United States just crammed them. And if we do have dollars, we’re just going to hold everything in reserves and lending to the United States, the dollars that it’s going to spend building more military bases around us to make us waste our money on monetary spending. And so, America itself by the way, in fighting against China and Russia, has ended the free lunch.
“In America you’ve had since 1980 something entirely different. That was not foreseen by anybody because it seemed to be so disruptive.”
And now, Russia and China as you pointed out, are de-dollarizing, they’re trading in each other’s currency. They’re being the exact opposite of everything that Bretton Woods tried to create. They’re trying to create independence from the United States.
If Bretton Woods is this dependence on the United States, a centralized system dependent ultimately on Wall Street financial planners then, what China and Russia are trying to create is an economy that’s not run by the financial sector, but it is run by, let’s say, industrial and economic engineering and saying, what kind of an economy do we need in order to raise living standards and wages and self-sufficiency and preserve the environment, what is needed for the ideal world that we want?
Well, in order to do that, you’re going to have to have a lot of infrastructure. And in America, infrastructure is all privatized. You have to make a profit. And once you have infrastructure, a railroad or electric utility, like you see in Texas recently, it’s a monopoly. Infrastructure, for 5,000 years, Europe, the near East, Asia was always kept in the public domain that goes, if you’ll give it to private owners, they’ll charge a monopoly rent.
Well, the idea that China has is, “OK, we’re going to provide the educational system freely and let everybody try to get an education.” In America if you have an education, you have to go into debt for the banks for between $50,000 and $200,000. And whatever you make you’re going to end up paying the bank while in China, if you give free education, the money that they earned from the education will be spent into the economy, buying the goods and services that they produce, and the economy will be expanding, not shrinking, not having it all sucked out into the financial banks that are financing the education, same thing with the railroads, same things with the healthcare.
If you provide healthcare freely then the employers do not have to pay for the healthcare because that’s provided freely. In the United States, if the corporation and the employees have to pay for healthcare, that means that the employees have to be paid a much higher wage in order to afford the healthcare, in order to afford the transportation that gets him to work, in order to afford the auto loans, in order to drive to work, all of this is free, or subsidized in other countries, who create their own credit.
In the United States and Europe, governments feel that they have to borrow from the wealthy people in a bond and pay interest. In China they say, “we don’t have to borrow from a wealthy class. We can simply print the money.” That’s Modern Monetary Theory. As Donald Trump has explained in the United States, we can print whatever we want. Dick Cheney said, deficits don’t matter. We can just print it. And of course, Stephanie Kelton and my colleagues in MMT at Kansas City for many years have been saying.
“The economy has been saturated and Reaganized and the result is a fight of economic systems against China and Russia.”
The banks fear this because they say, “Wait a minute, Modern Monetary Theory means it’s not feudal monetary theory. We want feudal monetary theory. We want the rich people to be able to have a choke point on the economy that you can’t survive unless you borrow from us and pay us interest. We want the choke points.” That’s called economic rent.
And so, you have the West turning into a rent-extractive economy, a rent-seeking economy. And you’ll have the whole ideal of Russia, China, and other countries being the ideal of not only Marx, but Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill, Ricardo. The whole of classical economics was to free economies from economic rent. And the American economy is all about extracting rent through the real estate sector, the financial sector, the health insurance sector, the monopolies and infrastructure sector.
The economy has been saturated and Reaganized and the result is a fight of economic systems against China and Russia. So, it’s not simply that, there’s a fight between who makes the best computer chips and the best iPhones. It’s: are we going to have a fallback of civilization back into feudalism, back into control by a narrow class at the top of the economy, that 1 percent? Or are we going to have the ideal of democratic industrialization that used to be called socialism but it was also called capitalism. Industrial capitalism was socialism; it was socialized medicine, it was socialized infrastructure, it was socialized schooling. And so, the fight against socialism is a fight against industrial capitalism, a fight against democracy, a fight against prosperity.
That’s why what you’re seeing now is a fight for what direction civilization will go into. And you can’t have a Bretton Woods for a single kind of organization because the United States would never join that civilization. The United States calls a country trying to make its labor force prosperous, educated and healthy instead of sick with shorter lifespans, they call it communism or socialism.
Well, it can call it whatever it wants, but that’s the dynamic we are talking about.
Pepe: Well, you put it very, I would say starkly. The opposition between two completely different systems, what the Chinese are proposing, including, from productive capitalism to trade and investment all across Eurasia and beyond, including Africa, parts of Latin America as well. And the rentier obsession of the 0.01 percent that controls the U.S. financial system. In terms of facts on the ground, are we going slowly but surely and ominously towards an absolute divorce by a system based on rentier, ultra-financialization, which is the American system, not productive capitalism at all.
I was going through a small list of what the U.S. exports, it’s not much as you know, better than I do. Agricultural products but always privileging U.S. farmers. Hollywood, we are all hostages of Hollywood all over the world. Pop culture? That’s not the pop culture that used to be absolutely impregnable and omniscient during the ‘60s, the 70s, during the Madonna, Michael Jackson era in the ‘80s, right? Infotech. And that’s where a big bet comes in. And this is maybe the most important American export at the moment because American Big Tech controls social networks all over the planet. Big Pharma. Now we see the power of Big Pharma with the whole Covid operations, right? But Boeing prefers to invest in financial engineering instead of building decent products. Right?
So, in terms of a major superpower, the hyperpower, that’s not much, and obviously buyers all over the world already noticed that. So, China is proposing the New Silk Roads, which is a foreign-policy strategy, and a trade, investment and sustainable development strategy. [It’s] applied not only to the whole of Eurasia, but Eurasia and beyond to grow a great deal of the Global South and that’s why we have Global South partners to the New Silk Roads — 130-and-counting as we speak.
So, the dichotomy could not be clearer. What will the 0.001 percent do? Because they don’t have anything seductive to sell. To all those nations in the Global South to start with; the new version of the Non-Aligned Movement, NAM, the countries that are already part of New Silk Road projects, not even to Europe and this, we could see by the end of last year when the China-European Union agreement was more or less sealed. It’s probably going to be sealed in 2021 for good.
And at the same time, we had the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership, RCEP, with the ASEAN 10, my neighbors here, the Association of South East Asian Nations, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. So, when you have the China-EU deal, and when you have RCEP, you have China as the number one trade partner on the planet, no competition whatsoever.
And obviously every one of these players wants to do business with China. And they’re privileging doing business with China to doing business with the U.S., especially with a country that once again, according to President Putin, is non-agreement capable. So, Michael, what is your key geo-economic view of the next steps? Are we going towards the divorce of the American financialization system and the Eurasia-and-beyond integration system?
Michael: Well, you you’ve made the whole point clear. There is incompatibility between a rentier society controlled by the finance and real estate interests and military interests and an industrial democracy.
Industry in England and Europe in the 19th century — the whole fight for democratic reform to increase the role of the House of Commons against the House of Lords in England and the lower house in Europe — was a fight to get labor on the side of industry [and] to get rid of the landlord class. And it was expected that … capitalism [would then be] free of the landlord class, free of something that wasn’t really capitalism at all, it was a carry-over from feudalism. Once you free capitalism, you wouldn’t have this overhead of the idle 1 percent, only consuming resources and going to war, anymore.
And then World War I changed all of that . … Already, in the late 19th century, the landlords and the banks fought back, and they fought back largely through the Austrian School of individualism and the English marginalist and they called it freedom. They call it free markets. Free market meant giving power to the monopolists, to the oppressors, to violence. A free market was where armies can come in, take over your country, impose a client dictatorship like [Gen. Augusto] Pinochet in Chile or the neo-Nazis in the Ukraine. And you call that a free market.
The free world was a world centrally planned by the American military and finance together. So, it’s Orwellian, and the dynamic of this world is shrinking because it’s polarizing and you’ve seen with the Covid pandemic in the United States, the economy has polarized much more sharply than ever before between the 1 percent, the 10 percent and the rest of the economy.
Well, as opposed to that here, you have economies that are not run by a rentier class, that do not have a banking class and the landlord class controlling the economy, but a partnership. The kind of thing you had in Germany in the late 19th century, government industry and labor, all working together to design how we provide the financing for industry so that it can provide not only industrial capital formation, but public funding for us to build infrastructure and uplift the population.
What China is doing is what made America rich in the 19th century, what made Germany rich. It’s exactly the same logical engineering plan. Now, this plan because it’s based on economic expansion, and environmental preservation and economic balance instead of concentration, this is going to be a growing economy. So, you’re having a growing economy outside of the United States and a shrinking economy in the States and its satellites in Europe.
“What China is doing is what made America rich in the 19th century, what made Germany rich.”
Europe had a choice; either it could shrink, and be American, or it could join the growth. Europe has decided unanimously, we don’t want to grow. We want to be constant. We want our banks to take over just like in America. That’s a free market because Americans have found out, and I’m told by American officials we just buy the European politicians, they’re bribable. That’s why when president Putin says, America and Europe are not agreement capable, it means they’re just in it for the money. There is no ideology there. There is no idea of the overall social benefit. The system is “how can I get rich, and you can get rich by being bribed?” That’s why you go into politics. As you can tell in America with the Supreme Court law saying politics can be personally financed.
So, you’re having two incompatible systems and, they’re on different trajectories and if you have a system that is shrinking like the West and growing in the East, you have resentment. People who obtain their wealth in crooked ways, or without working — by inheritance, by crime, by exploitation — they will fight like anything to keep that. Whereas people who actually create wealth, labor, capital, they, they’re not willing to fight, they just want to be creative. So you have a destructive military force, in the West. And, basically a productive, economic growth force. And in Eurasia, the clash now is occurring largely in Ukraine. You’re having the United States back the neo-Nazis.
Pepe: The old Nazi movement!
Michael: It’s the same swastika-carrying group that threatened Russia in World War II. And this is like waving a red flag before a bull. Putin continues to remind the Russians. We know what happened with the 22 million Russians that died, in World War II with Europe coming in. We’re not going to let it happen again.
And you can be certain Russia is not going to be sucked into invading the Ukraine. The United States has its military advisers in the Ukraine. Now, the Vineyard of the Saker has a very good report on that. America’s trying to needle Russia into fighting back against the terrorist groups and Russia has no desire at all to. There’s nothing that Russia has to gain by taking it over. It’s essentially a bankrupt country.
The United States is trying to provoke a response so it can say Russia is attacking the West. The result will probably be that Russia will very simply provide arms to the Eastern Ukrainians to fight back the invasion. And you’re going to have a wasteland in Western Ukraine and Poland. And this wasteland will be the new buffer state with Europe. Already you have, maybe 10 percent of the Ukrainians having moved to Russia and the east. [Another] 10 percent are now plumbers in England and Europe, working. They’re beginning to look like Latvia and other neo-liberalized countries. Neo-liberalized countries? If you want to see the future, look at Latvia, Estonia. Look at Greece. That’s the American plan. Essentially, an emigration of skilled labor, a sharp reduction of living standards, a 20 percent decline in population. And although it may appear to have more income, all of this income and GDP is, essentially, interest collection and rents to the FIRE sector.
All the American GDP growth is essentially payment to the bank, to the landlords and the monopolist, it’s not, the population, the employees are not sharing in the GDP. It’s all concentrated at the top. They make a desert, and they call it growth.
It hasn’t changed. Rome was a predatory economy held by military force that ultimately collapsed and America is on the same trajectory as Rome. And it knows this, I have spoken to American policymakers and they say, “you know, we we’re going to be dead by then. It doesn’t matter if the West loses. I’m going to get rich. I’m going to buy a farm in New Zealand and make a big bomb shelter there and live underground, you know, like a cave dweller.”
The financial time frame and the predatory rentier time frame is short term. The Eurasian time frame is long-term. So, you’ve got to have the short-term burning what wealth it has as opposed to the longer-term building up.
[Consider the Biden Covid relief measure.] They call it a stimulus bill, but if you’re starving, if you haven’t been able to pay your rent, if you’re six months behind in your rent and you get enough money to pay the landlord, at least one month back rent, that’s not a stimulus, that’s a survival. And it’s a one-time payment. This kind of stimulus checks that America’s sending out are sent out every month in Germany and parts of Europe.
“All the American GDP growth is essentially payment to the bank, to the landlords and the monopolist.”
The whole idea in Europe is: OK, you have a pandemic, you have business interrupted. What we’re going to do is we’re going to have a pause. You don’t pay the rent, but the landlords are not going to pay the banks. And the banks are not going to be in arrears. We’re just going to have a pause so that when it’s all over people will go back to normal. Well, China and Russia are already pretty much there and where you are [in Asia], and especially in Thailand, are already back to normal.
But in America anybody who’s renting or who’s bought a house on mortgage credit or who has credit card debt or personal debt or automobile debt they’re way behind. And all of these stimulus checks are just being used to pay the banks and the landlords not to not to buy more goods and services.
All they’re trying to do is, is get out of the hole that they’ve been dug into in the last 12 months. That’s not a stimulus that’s a partial, desperation payment. This problem never existed in other civilizations. You have the whole tradition of Greece, Babylonia that’s what my book Forgiving the Debt is all about. The whole idea is when there is an economic interruption, you have an interruption, you don’t have people into debt. You wipe out all of the arrears that have mounted up. You wipe out the tax arrears, the rent arrears, the debt of payment arrears. So once the crisis is over, you can start from a normal position again.
There’s no normalization in America, there’s no normal position to start. You’re starting from a position, even more behind the financial problems than you were when you went in. The foreign economies of China and Russia don’t have that kind of problem, they don’t have any kind of deficit. So, the West is beginning with 99 percent of the population deeper and deeper into debt to the 1 percent.
Where is that whole polarization between the 1 percent and the 99 percent? It doesn’t exist certainly in China and in Russia, Putin is trying to minimize it, given the legacy of the kleptocracy that the neo-liberals put in he’s still trying to deal with that, but you really have that. It’s a difference in economic systems and the direction in which these systems are moving in.
Pepe: I’m really glad that you brought up Ukraine, Michael, because this, let’s say U.S. foreign policy, even, before Trump and now with the new Biden-Harris administration, basically more or less what it boils down to is sanction sanctions, sanctions, as we know, and provocations, which is what they’re doing certainly in Syria with that recent bombing.
And, in the case of Ukraine and Donbass, it’s absolutely crazy because NATO so-called strategists, when you talk to them in Brussels, they know very, very well about each state or whatever they weaponize and financialize to profit Kiev to mount some sort of offensive against the Donbass and even if they would have like 300,000 soldiers against like 30,000 in Donbass.
If the Russians see that this is going to get really heavy if they intervene in directly, with their bombing, with their super missiles, they can finish this story in one day. And if they want it, they could finish the whole story, including invading Ukraine in three days, like they did in 2008 with Georgia and still they keep the provocations, loosely acted on by people from inside the Pentagon.
And so, we have sanctions, we have nonstop provocations, and we have also a sort of introducing a Fifth Column — elements inside or at the top of government — which brings me to, and I would love to have your personal analysis on the role of Mario (Goldman Sachs) Draghi now in Italy, which is something I had been discussing with my Italian friends. And there’s more or less a consensus, among very well informed, independent Italian analysts that Draghi may be the perfect Trojan horse to accelerate the destruction of the Italian state, which will accelerate the globalist project of the European Union, which is absolutely non-state centric.
Let’s put it this way, which is also part of the Great Reset so if you could briefly talk to us about the role of Super Mario at the moment.
Michael: Well, Italy is a very good example to look at. It had strings for a long time. When you have a country that needs infrastructure, that needs public, social democratic spending, you need a government to create the credit. But when Americans and specifically the University of Chicago free market lobbyists created the European, the Eurozone financial system, their premise was that governments cannot create money. Only banks can create money. Only banks owned by the bond holders can create money for the benefit of their owners and bond holders. So, no European government, first of all, can run a budget deficit sufficient to cope with the coronavirus or with the problems that have been plaguing Italy for a decade. They can’t create their money to revive employment, to revive infrastructure, to revive the economy. The European Central Bank only lends to other central banks.
It’s created trillions of euros just to buy stocks and bonds, not to spend into the economy, not to hire labor, not to build infrastructure, but just for the holders of the stocks and bonds. The 1 percent or 5 percent of the population gets richer. The function of the European Central Bank is to create money, to save the wealthiest 5 percent from losing a single penny on their stocks and bonds.
And the cost is to impoverish the economy and to basically make the economy end up looking like Greece, which was sort of the dress rehearsal for how the Eurozone was going to just essentially reduce Europe to debt dependency, just like in feudalism everybody had to have access to the land by becoming a serf.
Well now you’re in debt peonage. It’s the modern, finance capital’s version of serfdom. And so, in Italy we’re going to need government spending. We’re going to need to do in our way what China’s doing in its way and what Russia is doing in its way. We’re going to have some kind of government program. And we can’t have the economy being impoverished just because the University of Chicago has designed a plan for Europe to prevent the euro ever from being a rival to the U.S. dollar. If there’s no European central bank to borrow, to pump euros into the world economy, then, only dollars will be left for central bank reserves. The United States doesn’t ever want a rival. It wants satellites and so that’s what it’s basically turned Europe into. And I don’t see any response outside of Italy for an attempt to say we can’t be a part of this system. Let’s withdraw from the euro.
I know that the Greeks, when I was in Greece years ago, we all thought can’t we join with Italy and Portugal and Ireland and say look, the system isn’t working. Everybody else no, no, the Americans will just simply get us out of office one way or another. And in Italy, of course, if you look at what happened after World War II, the great threat was Italian communism. You had the Americans essentially say well, we know the answer to communism, it’s fascism and, you saw where they put the money. They essentially did every dirty trick in the book in order to fight any left- wing group in Italy, just as they did in Yugoslavia, just as they did in Greece, wiping out the partisans, all the leading anti-Nazi groups from Greece to Italy to elsewhere. All of a sudden they were all either assassinated or moved out of office and replaced by the very people that America had been fighting against during World War II.
Well, now Italy is finally coming to terms with this and trying to fight back and you’re having what’s happening there, between Northern Italy and Southern Italy. You’re having the same splits occur in other countries.
Pepe: Yeah. Well, I’m going to bring up, perhaps an even more extreme case now Michael, which is the case of Brazil, which at the moment is in the middle of an absolutely out of this world mix of telenovela and Kabuki theater that even for most Brazilians is absolutely incomprehensible. It’s like a fragmentation bomb exploding over and over again, a Groundhog Day of fragmentation bombs.
In fact, it’s completely crazy. Lula [former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva] is back in the picture as well. We still don’t know under which terms, we still don’t know how the guys who run the show, which are the Brazilian military, are going to deal with him or instrumentalize him, et cetera.
In 2007, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) and his wife Marisa Letícia review troops during the Independence Day military parade. (Ricardo Stuckert, Agência Brasil, CC BY 3.0. Wikimedia Commons)
I bring up this case because … essentially it has convulsed Brazil completely and large parts of Latin America. It is a telenovela with one cliffhanger after another, sometimes in a matter of minutes, but it encompasses all the basic themes of what really interests the 0.01 percent, which we can identify for instance as a class war against labor which is what the system in Brazil, since the coup against Dilma [Former President Dilma Vana Rousseff] has been waging. A war against mixed economies, economic sovereignty, which is something that the Masters of the Universe of the 0.01 percent cannot wage against Russia and China. But that was very successfully waged against Brazil and implemented in Brazil. In fact, in a matter of two years, they completely devastated the country in every possible sense, industrially, sociologically, you name it…
And of course, because the main objective is something that you keep stressing over and over again, unipolar rentier dominance, in fact.
Brazil, I would say is the extreme case in the world not only in the Global South, but in planetary terms of let’s say the last frontier of the rentier economy, when you manage to capture a country that was slowly emerging as a leader in the Global South, as an economic leader. Don’t forget that a few years ago, Brazil was the sixth-largest economy in the world and on the way to become the fifth. Now it’s the 12th and falling down nonstop and controlled by a mafia that includes not by accident, a Chicago Boy Pinochetista, Minister Paulo Guedes, who is implementing, in the 21st century, something that was implemented in Chile in the ‘70s and ‘80s. And they were successful. Apparently, at least so far.
Brazil is so disorganized as a nation, so shattered, so fragmented and atomized as a nation that basically it depends on the re-emergence of a single political leader, in this case, Lula to try to rebuild the nation from scratch. And even in a position where he cannot control the game he can interfere in the game, which is what happened, like you know, … when he gave a larger-than-life press conference, mixed with a re-presentation of himself as a statesman and said, “Look the whole thing is shattered, but there is some light at the end of the tunnel.”
But still he cannot confront the real Masters of the Universe that have allowed this to happen in the first place. So just to give an example to many of you who are not familiar with some details of the Brazilian case, and it involves directly the Obama-Biden scheme or the Obama-Biden larger operation. When Biden was vice president in 2013, in May 2013, he visited Brazil for three days and he met with President Dilma.
They discussed very touchy subjects, including the most important one, the absolutely enormous, pre-salt oil reserves, which obviously, the Americans wanted to be part of the whole thing, not by accident. You know what happened one week later? The start of the Brazilian color revolution, in fact, and this thing kept rolling and rolling and rolling.
We got the coup against Dilma in 2016, we got to the Car Wash operation landing Lula in jail. And we got to the election of [President Jair] Bolsanaro. And now we are in a place where even if the military controls this whole process, even if Bolsanaro is becoming bad for business will he become bad for the rentier class business, for the 0.01 percent in the U.S. that has all the connections in their new, large neo-colony in the tropics, which has enormous strategic value, not to mention, unforeseen resources, wealth resources, right? So, this is an extreme case and I know that you follow Brazil relatively closely. So, your geo-economic and geopolitical input on the running telenovela I think would be priceless for all of us.
Michael: Well, this problem goes back 60 years. In 1965, the former president of Brazil came to New York and we met. He explained to me how the United States essentially got rid of him because he wasn’t representing the banking class. And he said that they built Brasilia because it’s apart from the big industrial cities, they wanted to prevent industry and democracy and the population from controlling the government.
So, they built Brasilia. He said maybe they’ll use it as an atom bomb site. It certainly doesn’t have an economic thing. Well, fast forward, in 1980, after Mexico defaulted on its foreign debt in 1972, nobody would invest in Latin America. And by 1990, Brazil was paying 45 percent interest per year to borrow the dollars to be able to finance its deficit, which is mainly flight capital by the wealthy. Well, I think I’d mentioned before here, I was hired by Scudder, Stevens and Clark for the Third World bond fund. Forty five percent: I mean, just imagine that. That’s a fortune every year. No American would buy it, no European would buy it. Who bought it? The Brazilians and the Argentineans bought, and I get it, they’re the government, they’re the central bankers. They’re the president’s family. They’re the 1 percent, they’re the only people that are holding Brazil’s dollar debt.
So when Brazil pays its foreign dollar debt, it’s paying to its own 1 percent who are holding, who are saying well, we’re holding it off shore in the Dutch West Indies where the fund was located for tax-exempt purposes and pretending to be American imperialists, but actually being local imperialists.
Well then, just towards the end of Lula’s reign, the Council of Economic Advisors brought Jamie Galbraith and Randy Wray and me down for a discussion. How do we, you know, we’re, we’re really worried because, Lula in order to get elected, had to meet with the banks and agree to give them what they wanted.
They said, look, we can see that, you know, you have the power to be elected. We don’t want to have to fight you in dirty ways, but will let you be elected, but you’re going to have to do the policies and certainly the financial policies that we want and Lula made a kind of a devil’s agreement with them because he didn’t want to be killed and he wanted to do some good things.
So, he was sort of like a Bernie Sanders-type character. Okay, you have to go along with a really bad system in order to get something good done, because Brazil really needs something good done. Well, the fact is that even the little bit he did the finance couldn’t take because one of the characteristics of financial wealth is it’s addictive. It’s not like diminishing marginal utility. If you give more food to an employee or to a worker you know, at the end of the meal, you’re satiated, you don’t want much more. If you give enough money you know, OK, they buy a few luxuries and then, OK, they save it. But if you give more money to a billionaire they want even more and they grow even more desperate. It’s like a cocaine-addicted person and the Brazilian ruling class wanted it so desperately that they framed up and controlled the utterly corrupt judiciary. The judiciary in Brazil is almost as corrupt as it is in New York City.
Pepe: More, even more.
Michael: They framed them up and they want totalitarian control. And that sort of is what free market is.Totalitarian control by the financial class. That’s freedom for the financial class, if the freedom to do what they want to do to the rest of the economy, that’s libertarianism, it’s a free market, it’s Austrian economics.
It’s the right wing’s fight against government, it’s a fight against any governments for long enough who resist the financial and real estate interests. That’s what the free market is. And Brazil is merely the most devastating example of this because it takes such a racial term there. Not only does Brazil want to make a fortune, tearing down the Amazon, cutting up the Amazon, selling the lumber to China, turning the Amazon into soy production to sell to China. But for that, you have to exterminate the domestic population, the indigenous population that wants to use the land to feed itself. So you see the kind of race war and ethnic war that you have, not to mention the war against the blacks in the Brazilian slums that Lula tried so much to overcome.
So you have a resumption of the ethnic war there, and on Wall Street, I had discussions with money managers back in 1990. Well I wonder whether that’s going to be a model for what’s happening in the United States with the ethnic war here.
Essentially, it’s a tragedy what’s happening in Brazil, but it’s pretty much what happened in Chile under Pinochet which is why they have the Pinochetistas and the Chicago boys that you mentioned.
Pepe: Absolutely. Coming back to China, Michael, and the [recent] approval of the Five-Year Plan, which is not actually the five-year plan. It’s actually three five-year plans in one because they are already planning 2035, which is something absolutely unimaginable anywhere in the West. Right?
So, it’s a different strategy of productive investment, of expansion of social welfare and solidifying social welfare, technological improvements. I would say by 2025 China would be very close to the same infotech level of the U.S., which is part of “Made in China 2025,” which is fantastic. They stopped talking about it, but they are still implementing it, the technological drive in all those standard areas that they had codified a few years ago. And of course, this notion, which I found particularly fascinating because it is in one sense socialism with some Confucianist elements, but it’s also very Taoist: The dual development strategy, which is inversions and expansion of domestic investment and consumption and balancing all the time with projects across Eurasia, not only affiliated with the Belt and Road, with the New Silk Road, but all other projects as well. So, when you have a leadership that is capable of planning with this scope, amplitude breadth and reach, and when we compare it to the money managers in the West, which basically their planning goes, not even quarterly in many cases, it’s 24 hours.
So our dichotomy between rentier capitalism, financialization, or whatever we want to define it, and state planning with the view of social benefit is even starker in fact, and I’m not saying that the Chinese system can be exported to the rest of the world, but I’m sure that, all across the Global South, when people look at Chinese policies, long-term, how they are planning, how they are developed and how they are always fine tuning what they developed and discuss…. As you said in the beginning, this is a frontal shock of two systems and sooner or later we’re going to have the bulk of the Global South including nations which nowadays are still American vassals or satrapies or puppets or poodles, et cetera.
They’re going to see which way the wind is blowing. Right?
Michael: Why can’t the Chinese system be exported to the West? That’s a good question…. How would you make American industry able to follow the same productive path that China did? Well for one thing the biggest element in workers’ budget today is housing, 40 percent. There was one way to get rid of it, get rid of the high housing prices that essentially, or whatever a bank would lend. And the banks lend essentially the economic rent. There’s a very simple way to keep housing prices down. You tax the land rent, you use your tax system, not on taxing labor, that increases the cost of labor, not increasing capital, that leaves less, industrial capital, but your tax of the land and the real estate and the banks.
Well, suppose you were to lower the price of housing in America from 40 percent to 10 percent like China has, and this is the big element in the cost structure difference. Well, if all of a sudden people only had to pay 10 percent of their income for housing, then all the banks would go under because 80 percent of the bank loans are mortgage loans.
The whole idea is that the purpose of housing is to force how many buyers and renters go into debt to the banks so that the banks end up with all of the lend rent that the landlord class used to get. This is what’s preventing America from being like China. What if America would try to develop a high-speed railroad like China?
Well, then you need the right of way. You’d need to have the railroads go in a straight line. … They need a right of way and it doesn’t have a right of way because that conflicts with private property and most of the right of way is a very expensive real estate.
So, you can’t have high-speed rail in the United States, like in China. Suppose you would have a low-cost education. Well then, you get rid of the whole means of siphoning off labor’s income to pay for education loans. You could go, suppose you had private healthcare and prevent Americans from getting sick like they do in China and Thailand, where you are.
One of China’s many super-speed electric trains. They are generations ahead of America’s rail system. (Wikicommons)
Well, then the health insurance companies and the pharmaceutical companies wouldn’t be able to make their rent. So you could not have America adopt a China type industrial program without what would be really a revolution against the legacy of the monopoly of private banking, of finance and all of the fortunes that have been built up financially really in the last 40 years since 1980.
Pepe: So, what’s going to happen in the, let’s say, short to mid-term in the U.S.? Michael, we are seeing the corrosion of the whole system, not only externally in terms of foreign policy and the end of the free lunch, but internally with those 70-million-plus “deplorables” being literally canceled from public debate, the impoverishment of the middle classes, with over 50 million people in America who are practically becoming literally poor. And obviously the American dream ended a few decades ago, maybe, but now there’s not even a glimpse of it, that there could be a renewal of the American dream. So we have a larval civil war situation, degrading on a daily basis. What’s the end game in fact? And what exactly does Wall Street, the American ruling class —the guys who have those lunches at the Harvard club — what do they ultimately want?
Michael: Well, what you call a disaster for the economy, isn’t it a bonanza for the 1 percent? This is a victory of finance. You look at it as a collapse of industrial capitalism. I look at it as the victory of rentier finance capitalism. You’re having probably 10 million Americans that are going to be thrown out of their apartments and their homes in June when the moratorium on rents and mortgages ends. You’re going to have a vast increase in the homeless population. That will probably represent an increase in people who use the subways. Where else are they going to live? And all of this, there’s an immense amount of private capital firms that have all been created in the last year of just wealth accumulations and they’re saying there are going to be such great opportunities to pick up real estate at bargain prices, all of this for the commercial real estate, that’s broken, all the buildings and the restaurants that have to be sold because they can’t meet their mortgage payments and their rents, all the houses that are going to be under, private capital can come in and do what was done after the Obama evictions.
We can do what Blackstone did. We can buy them all out for pennies on the dollar. So, for them, they’re looking at their own 20-year plan. And their 20-year plan is to grab everything!
…
A Long read, eh?
Yeah. I know it was a long read. Maybe you all should have gotten a beer and some pizza before you started to read it, maybe.
.
Keep in mind that any disruption will be uneven. It will be in patches. Avoid the high-risk areas if you can, and be part of a group.
A Comment that generated this post…
The question;
Your website is by far THE MOST IMPORTANT resource for westerners right now. I have a lot to learn from site, and I also have some questions. The most important question I have at this moment is –
1) How do you advise Americans/Europeans who understand what is happening, the future that is approaching to prepare, survive AND maintain their sanity in these trying times. Especially those who can’t move outside USA/EU?
Your help and answer will be much appreciated. The feeling of doom and dread while your compatriots run towards jumping off a cliff (and forcibly drag you along) is not a fun feeling.
Note: I am in EU but I am using a VPN for my safety. My IP address will indicate an Asian country close to China but I am living in EU. Please approve my comment, it’s not a spam.
The Answer:
Thank you for this. This question has been asked of me my many people, and I have answered it. Long time MM readers can answer this for you, but I will take a quick stab at it yet again.
Essentially, the social system that humans established way back around 5000 years ago is faulted. The moment that banking interest obtained the same value as gold or physical exertion, the system was doomed. It just took 7000 years to manifest.
Now the USA is in debt for nearly 30 trillion dollars. All the gold on the planet earth wouldn’t be able to pay this debt. Yet this debt is jut an artificial creation. It’s just money out of thin air. Value from nothing.
For the last 75 years, the United States used this artificial value to control the world. The wealthy became like Gods. The poor became like slaves.
And as a result the world became a very difficult place to live. Are you enjoying life right now? If not, why?
Everything can be traced down to people who make nothing, who produce nothing, becoming Gods over those that do. And these “Gods” have their own group of toadies who service them. Creating wars, strife, and elements of control. It’s all ungainly and unraveling.
China, Russia and Iran are unifying.
They are not allowing this artificial wealth creation mechanism to become the monster that it is in the West, and this is a major threat to the “American way of life”, “democracy” and what little is left of “freedom”.
The world is resetting.
Now, America and the West (the five eyes) is like a big old enraged old elephant on a jet aircraft. It is thrashing about, banging into the side of the aircraft and is roaring and howling and tearing up the floor. The pilot and his crew are deciding whether or not it is in the best interests to just open up the rear cargo door and throw him out the plane with no parachute. This is where we are today.
You have no control on whether or not the elephant will get ejected. For you are just a tiny, tiny flea on the back of this enraged elephant. Your choices are quite limited, but they are clear. Do you [1] jump off now and land on the sterile clean floor of the aircraft, while the elephant stomps about, [2] ride the elephant as you have been and hope that the elephant calms down and the plane lands safely, [3] fight with the other fleas on the back of the elephant and try to build a little nest of elephant hair, and float gently to the side of the plane intact.
And who is this elephant? Why it is the United States; an Oligarchy-ruled Military-Empire.
I have advised everyone who could, to take option [1] and flee.
Those that could not, like yourself, I suggest option [3]. What ever you do, do not take option [2]. That is the herd option and it will be lethal.
And I will repeat my advice. Here is the advice for option [3]...
[1] Do not be a “lone wolf”. That is going to get you killed. Be part of a local community. Know who you can trust and who you cannot. Identify friends and foes. Again, I will repeat, do not try to be alone. You need to be part of a community to survive. This is your MOST IMPORTANT task.
[2] Learn a skill. Take an online class in paramedic technology, know some basic repair skills. You need to be useful when things go really crazy. have a skill. Have abilities. be able to work as a "team player". Be reasonable, balanced, and provide something of worth.
[3] Stock up on food supplies. Make sure that you have an enormous larder of dry goods.
[4] Guns and weapons. Having a firearm is beneficial only if you know how to use it well. Otherwise, count on the avoidance strategy of survival, but be absolutely ready to kill with your bare hands if necessary. If you are not at this point, then you need to get to that point. Its basic survival 101.
[5] Basics of location. If you are going to "hunker down", then be ready. Make sure that you have a hidden room in your basement or a place to go where you can hide if need be. Know where to get water, potable water easily, if you need to. Know how to recharge a batter with solar power or a generator from a bicycle.
[6] Do not trust the “news”. The "news" do not report anything, they actually provide deceptive reporting.
[5] Lie low, be low key. Do not get on any public or private arguments. Be as neutral as possible. Do not be a target. Use the avoidance strategy at every point.
[6] Do not have “burned bridges”. Go ahead “mend your fences”. Your future depends on your ability to work as a team.
[7] Barter goods. When times are rough, and money is worthless, humans resort to bartering. Women will provide sexual favors. Men can provide items, or services. Top rated items are small bottles of cheap whiskey, vodka, or spirits. Also good are tobacco, cigarettes and pipe tobacco. A box of 100 disposable lighters is very cheap and you would be surprised how valuable they can become. Be able to reload ammo even if you don't have a gun. Antibiotics will be worth YOUR weight in gold. Whether for animals, or humans or next best herbal alternatives, having a supply is important. Same goes with condoms. You do not want to have a nasty STD when you are in a SHTF situation.
[8] Avoid crowds. Stay out of the cities. Do not isolate in the country.
[9] Do not trust anyone. We are all entering a time where betrayal and lies have become normal. Don't believe anyone. Don't trust anyone.
In America today is a world of hurt because everyone demands their “freedom” and “independence”. Contrast that to here in China where people work together to the greater good of everyone. Sure there might be a star basketball player, but he is shit when he comes across a well trained and organized team.
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Let it be well understood that today 1JUN20 that SHTF in the United States is now official. Elements have been building up for some time, most certainly. And there have been some events that definitely contributed to this situation, but make absolutely no mistake. SHTF is now active and the entire United States is in turmoil.
As with anything, it’s difficult to pick a time when an event starts. Does Christmas start at 12:01 25 December, or when children wake up? Does it start when the presents are opened? Or, is is a month-long holiday with different phases.
Ah…
Let’s not parse the details too severely. All that wonderful “freedom”, “liberty” and “democracy” that Americans are so very happy that they have has…
… reared it’s ugly face.
In fact, it is nothing of the sort. It’s all just fancy slogans, endlessly repeated, by a dumbed down mindless mass of serfs. The United States is a military oligarchy-run empire, and the peasants are tired of it.
People are pissed off.
Some of them are just bored, and want a “regular” life.
Some are opportunists.
Some want to burn it all down, and literally kill anyone who is doing better than themselves.
If you all think that it’s going to die down in a day or two you are deluded. This is the start of a long slow collapse. Oh, certain regions will fare better than others. Certain people will do better than others, and certain situations will bring more advantages than others.
But that’s not what I am afraid of.
I’m afraid of the morons running the United States. For typically when there is economic turmoil such as this, the answer is always “distraction by war”. It focuses the people to something outside the poorly run domestic economy. And since this “domestic turmoil” is so expansive (this time), the up-scaled version of war could also be “up-scaled”.
And, I tend to be wrong about 50% of the time, don’t you know.
You are Here…
Leadership in hiding
The idea that President Trump is in a bunker, safe and sound under the White House while America is in flames reminds me of another event…
… when Hitler hunkered down in a bunker in the Reich Chancellery in Berlin while all of Germany burns.
While I actually am equating Trump with Hitler, it should not be misconstrued. I am actually equating the events of the collapse of the United States with the collapse of Germany. The mere fact that it is President Trump in Washington at this time instead of Obama, Bush, or Clinton makes no difference.
President Trump is a man of great strengths and great faults. He just happens to be at the helm at this historic event.
Other thoughts…
People of greater capability than I, and those with better writing skills have weighed in on this sequence of events. I find them illuminating. And now some “doom porn” for those of you who can stomach it…
A whopping 71% of jobless Americans haven’t gotten their unemployment payments from March. Lines at food banks are literally miles long in some areas. Rents and mortgages are not being paid. Anger is increasing. Soon it’s going to bubble over into rage and when it does, we could see unrest and crime like we haven’t seen in this country in centuries.
Charles Smith at Of Two Minds says What’s Collapsing Can’t Be Saved: Our Fraudulent Economy. Excerpts:
We live in a constantly distorted house of mirrors devoted to maintaining useful illusions of "democracy," "free markets" and other fairy tales we tell ourselves to reduce the pain of living a vast, all-encompassing fraud in which everyone who isn't a grifting insider is the loser.
We don't just have financial bubbles that are popping; we have bubbles in trust and credibility that are popping, too. All the lies, skims, scams, excuses, frauds, bezzles, artifices, profiteering, promotional schemes and rackets are unraveling, not because the virus shut down the economy but because the enormity of all the corruption, lies and fraud is now so great that the entire status quo is collapsing under its own weight...
Once the system collapses, we all lose, even the insiders who have traded every shred of their soul for financial gains, at the expense of everything that was once held dear.
National Post – Billionaire’s Instagram-perfect isolation on a luxury superyacht draws public outrage … as the world’s wealthy stay in vacation homes, custom bunkers or floating palaces, workers from nurses to supermarket cashiers juggle childcare and risk infection working essential jobs.
The Z Man (April 2020) – There’s lots of red lights flashing in the debt markets and the supply chain. The next months will be interesting. Maybe that will be how everyone forgets about this month of living like lepers and treating everyone like they stink. Before people can start to think about why they were locked in their homes, they will be directed to the next drama, the financial and economic panic of 2020. Perhaps the lesson here is the circus part of our bread and circuses is the government creating increasingly reckless panics seeing if they can blow it all up. Maybe this is all for their entertainment.
Riots, Z Man – The current black riots are being described as unprecedented, when in fact they are a regular feature of American life. Birds fly, fish swim and blacks riot. Amusingly, the man allegedly responsible for these riots, President Trump, you know, because of the low black unemployment, is in office because of the last round of black riots. In fact, black rioting is one of the regular features of the ongoing morality play that is modern liberal democracy. The usual suspects, looking for a reason to get white people to the theater, start scanning about for some case where a black was harmed by an unsympathetic white. They create a narrative around the incident, have the stories placed in the media and then encourage the black “activist groups” to start making an issue of it. From there, the story writes itself.
George Ure at Urban Survival: The food situation is getting dicey with meat, including pork and some poultry production coming off-line. And that will evolve over coming months into supply chain collapses and a general reset of lifestyles at a much lower-than-recent levels.
Putting everyone under house arrest and collapsing the economy is just the beginning. The can is being kicked and it moveth not. A historic catastrophe is plainly visible. Someone else's fine tuned and compelling opinion won't save you. Those who can save themselves will save themselves, not you. Those who can't save themselves certainly won't save you. Who does that leave?
Collapse, Of Two Minds – “Success” in America is now a game of creating believable facsimiles of what was once authentic. This requirement to hide the truth lest it collapse all the skims, scams, frauds, rackets and insider plundering and pillaging is the Monster Id of America. The more the insiders and institutional technocrat machinery attempt to censor and suppress critical inquiry, the greater the erosion of public trust in the credibility and legitimacy of the dominant institutions. When reality and truth become the sworn enemies of society’s political and economic elites, the society is well and truly doomed.
The current situation eventually will pass, but any time there’s any crisis — real, perceived, or exaggerated — government will instantly hit the police-state panic button. Thanks to so much of the reporting on the pandemic, which mostly has targeted those politicians who didn’t “do something” quickly enough, we’ll see an arms race over who can take the boldest moves without delaying over quaint concerns about our liberties.
Just as Americans have become accustomed to the TSA’s security theater and to endless police cameras and checkpoints, we soon may also become accustomed to routine lockdowns and arbitrary edicts any time officials get wind of a coming health or other problem. We won’t know for sure, of course, but just wait until next year’s flu season.
James Kunstler sees “a harsher, hungrier, angrier society of broken promises and dashed expectations” when “the hocus-pocus of Modern Monetary Theory” crashes in a heap. Excerpt:
The world never reached such a pitch of activity up to the blow-ups of 2008, and it went through the motions for a decade after that. Now that it’s stopped, all that’s left is the law of gravity, and it doesn’t get more basic. The “wealth” acquired in the decade since by the so-called “one-percent” was loaded onto a defective aircraft, like a Boeing 737-MAX, and an awful lot of it will fall to earth now on broken wings.
Their agents and praetorians on Wall Street are working feverishly to stave off that crash-landing, like a band of magicians casting spells on the ground while that big hunk of juddering metal augers earthward. Wait for it as spring brings new life across the land and things unseen before steal onto the scene.
Can you imagine if our grid went down and we lost electricity for an extended period of time? As bad as our current situation is, it could always be a lot worse. We relied on our government leaders to prepare our country for a pandemic, and we see what that got us. We rely on that same leadership now to protect our electric grid...
The EMP Commission estimates a nationwide blackout of the United States lasting one year could kill 90% of Americans from starvation and societal collapse...
The strategy of pretending to do something but really doing nothing and then throwing money at the threat when it happens will get millions of Americans killed when there is an EMP.
It’s suspicious how many articles about an EMP attack are showing up for no obvious reason.
Experts, Burning Platform – Not one penny of the trillions generated by the Fed out of thin air is helping the 38.6 million people who were thrown out into the streets by government decree. It wasn’t meant to trickle down. It’s just another example of socialism for the corporate fascists and another screw job for the average working stiff. The Fed’s sole purpose is to enrich their banker benefactors, corporate titans, hedge fund managers and corrupt politicians. The unemployment rate is headed toward 30%. GDP in the 2nd quarter will approach -40%. We’ve entered a 2nd Great Depression. The damage is permanent and ultimately fatal.
"It's not a lack of food, it's that the food is in one place and the demand is somewhere else and they haven't been able to connect the dots. You've got to galvanize people."
The immediate outcome of this food supply chain collapse will be even more rapid food inflation, hitting Americans at a time of unprecedented economic hardships with at least 26.5 million now unemployed since the pandemic struck the US.
And with a sharp economic recession, if not outright depression unfolding, more Americans are ditching grocery stores for food banks, putting incredible stress on these charities, which has forced the government to deploy National Guard troops at many locations to ensure food security to the neediest.
We’re just circling the drain. We ain’t seen nothin’ yet. Those ingénues who believe troops are being positioned to “ensure food security” will be among the first to discover otherwise. Get away, and stay away from crowds. It’s the indispensable first step.
We live in a constantly distorted house of mirrors devoted to maintaining useful illusions of "democracy," "free markets" and other fairy tales we tell ourselves to reduce the pain of living a vast, all-encompassing fraud in which everyone who isn't a grifting insider is the loser.
We don't just have financial bubbles that are popping; we have bubbles in trust and credibility that are popping, too. All the lies, skims, scams, excuses, frauds, bezzles, artifices, profiteering, promotional schemes and rackets are unraveling, not because the virus shut down the economy but because the enormity of all the corruption, lies and fraud is now so great that the entire status quo is collapsing under its own weight...
Once the system collapses, we all lose, even the insiders who have traded every shred of their soul for financial gains, at the expense of everything that was once held dear.
Lockdowns, Mises Institute – Those who have claimed that lockdowns are “the only option” had virtually no evidence at all to support their position. Indeed, such extreme over-the-top measures such as the general lockdowns required an extreme level of high-quality, nearly irrefutable evidence that lockdowns would work and were necessary in the face of a disease with an extremely high fatality rate. But the only “data” the prolockdown people could offer was speculation and hyperbolic predictions of bodies piling up in the streets. The lockdown crowd destroyed the lives of millions to satisfy the hunches of a tiny handful of politicians and technocrats.
Peter Grant at Bayou Renaissance Man mentions the unmentionable in his essay, Bailing out the states: the momentum and the prospect for violence builds. Excerpts:
If their residents find that government largesse is no longer flowing; and if they believe that they're entitled to such largesse; then they're going to get out of control and try to take what they want. The results are likely to be catastrophic for law and order, and civil society.
I think the ordinary people of America realize this. After all, that's why they bought more guns in March than any other month in previous US history. They're getting ready to defend what's theirs—and I believe they're right in anticipating the need to do so...
You want to know why my friends want me to upgrade their rifles? You want to know why I've been warning about COVID-19 as a threat to personal security, and suggesting ways to keep your shooting skills honed, even during the lockdown? ... Look no further.
American Gun News – Another Maryland Man Red-Flagged to Death by the Cops … cops shot him through a window while asleep in bed. They also shot his pregnant girlfriend
Power grab, Sovereign Man – If you think about 9/11 in particular, its remarkable how much power the government grabbed, and how many freedoms they took away. What I’m most concerned about at this point is not the virus, nor even the economic devastation.They have us all cowering in our homes, stripped of the most basic freedoms to do just about anything. People are being thrown off their own private property because they’re not an ‘official resident’ of the town. Others have been arrested for attending a funeral. Others threatened with jail for their social media posts. There’s going to be a huge impact on our freedom from this astonishing growth of unchecked government power.
Lockdown, The Z Man – You can’t help but wonder if what we are seeing is just a dry run for something more permanent in the future. I don’t think this was premeditated. Like the radicals of the French Revolution, our rulers are now captive to events they set in motion. As the evidence stacks up it is clear the lock downs were a terrible idea, but the people in charge have the whiff of authoritarianism in their nostrils and like a rutting beast they can think of nothing else. They are now busy dreaming up more insane restrictions just to humiliate people. It is increasingly difficult to remain a reasonable person. I’m getting a little salty.
Debt, Paul Craig Roberts – An economic system that enriches the rentier class by converting as much of personal income as possible to the service of debt is an economic system that is dead in the water. One possible way out is a debt writedown in order to create some discretionary income. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan substituted growth in consumer debt for the missing income growth, and by this substitution created discretionary income by loading up the consumer with debt. That load is now full. We are in the unenviable position of having very high stock prices in an economy that has no growth potential. The high stock prices are the product of trillions of dollars injected into financial asset prices.
Charles Smith at Of Two Minds has posted strategies for surviving tough times. He does not claim to deal with a collapse of civilization, but rather the slower and uneven “devolution” he sees as more likely. He advises developing multiple skillsets and social networks, cutting expenses and relying on health and social wealth.
Mr. Smith is not just one of my regular reads, he's one of those few I often reread. His particular "take" on events is worth close attention, always well thought out and grounded in fact. However, he's not talking about survival, he's talking about enduring tough times. To this end he suggests avoiding extreme preps as "predicated on a decisive 'end of the world as we know it'".
I believe he's an optimist.
Being a generous nice guy with community connections is not a viable strategy for surviving the emerging catastrophe. And emerging it is. Understand what we're looking at. Shopping became raiding as the collapse visibly accelerated. Civic compliance is being quietly withdrawn as government leaders and their credentialed experts reveal themselves as corrupt opportunists and inept posers.
No one "survived" the Great Depression any more than they "survived" the good times. They bore up, endured and got through. People "survived" real catastrophes; Genghis Khan and the Golden Horde or the homicidal slave labor camps of the last century.
Survivalism is unpleasant and difficult, but it's the only alternative in unpleasant and difficult times. It won't be about becoming a handy, well liked member of a cozy little community. Open handed nice people with their Norman Rockwell settlements will be ruthlessly exploited and left for dead. Viable communities will emerge, but more like the Bielski or Forest Brothers woodland partisans, minus the antique politics.
Preparationalism—known as "prepping"—is part of survival, not survivalism itself. Preppers posit hard times and scarcity. Survivalists posit destitution, murderous chaos, pestilence and famine. Survival is prepping's precondition, not visa versa.
Mr. Smith talks like a nineteenth century idealist with a stock portfolio. It would please me if he were right, but betting the other way is wiser. We ain't seen nothin' yet.
This is what the end of the end of history looks like. We had asked ourselves how it would appear and when. These questions mattered, and not only incidentally. They matter less now as we prepare for what I suspect will be at least a decade of immiseration on a scale unimaginable to at least three generations...
Here I think foreboding is justified. Trends that were worrisome long before we had heard of the new virus are accelerating to a point at which they are probably irreversible.
Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit notes the quiet self-authorized reopenings and says,
The shutdowns were sold as “two weeks to slow the spread,” and “flattening the curve,” and so on, and lots of people thought that was sensible, and it was. A two-month (or longer) shutdown is a different animal, and nobody consented to that. So now people are, mostly silently, withdrawing their consent from the state.
Ruling system, The Z Man – If you take time to read up on the Flynn case or the much larger plot around it, you see a large cast of people with one thing in common. They all live together as a social class and social relationships transcend the formal positions and titles of the people. Once a ruling class becomes a ruling community, reform is no longer possible. The only way to change the system is to decapitate it. The lesson of the Soviet system is that technology can perpetuate the community until it exhausts itself. The low quality of the people involved in the FBI shenanigans suggests they are reaching the same point as the Soviets in the 1980’s.
Serfdom, American Mind – The barbarians who seized Roman lands took advantage of chaos to fuel their ascendancy in what became the Middle Ages. Pestilence-driven depopulation and weakened political institutions enabled them to establish their hegemony over shrinking economies. Yet to assure their power, the Medieval aristocracies needed a belief system that would allow them to control the lower classes effectively. Today this role is played by a far-reaching “expert class” teeming with highly-credentialed functionaries.
The dichotomy between what is happening in the real world and what is happening in the world of the financiers will lead to violent upheaval on a timeline not anticipated by the ruling class. There is a good reason gun stores were overwhelmed with business at the outset of this over-hyped flu pandemic. Trust in the government, central bankers, the corporate media, and “experts” is disintegrating rapidly. The anger and disillusionment grows by the day and pockets of resistance are propagating throughout the country...
The only thing that matters is we will experience a disastrous outcome in the very near future from this reckless issuance of debt. The civic decay has entered the confrontational stage, with sides taken, weapons at the ready, awaiting the spark which will ignite the dynamite.
Reopen the nation, American Thinker – Hundreds of thousands of businesses are on the verge of bankruptcy and permanent closure. 33+ million are unemployed, and the federal government is creating massive unsustainable debt. This nation has made the biggest blunder in its history. The time has come for the politicians from the President to the Governors and Mayors to stop hiding behind the scientist/bureaucrats and fully reopen the nation. Focus on that segment of the population most at risk, without compulsory isolation or de facto imprisonment. And restore the civil liberties that have been wantonly eroded.
Fred Reed, Unz Review – We are told that In China, everything you say or do is monitored. Obviously China is a most terrible place. Who could doubt it? By contrast, in America, cameras are everywhere, all email is recorded, every bank transaction, credit-card purchase, who you called by telephone and when, and of course criminal records. Since little of this is directly done by the federal government, we do not live in a surveillance state. After all, none of the entities involved would share their information with the feds–would they?
From the woodpile report; July will tell the truth about the economy. I’ve chosen November as the month of general truth, whether the years following will be of manageable coping, of unexampled disaster, or something in between.
We could see a return to pre-Covid conditions, the economy revive, preps largely unneeded. Or hard times will persist but get no worse than they are now, with normalcy slowly returning, preps helpful but not critical. Or daily life could worsen long term and become the new normal, modest preps necessary but sufficient until a slow turnaround takes hold some years out.
Or systemic disruption and shortages could multiply, the recession deepen into a depression , extensive preps needed to make it from one month to the next. Or it could become a general disaster with outright starvation, government rule by decree, cities uninhabitable, regional withdrawals into fiefdoms, and only extensive preps being enough to avoid personal catastrophe. Or we'll see a rapid and unstoppable national and global collapse, criminal raids on a regional scale, rule by force, preps depleted or confiscated and the widespread rise of outright survivalism.
Preppers attempt to maintain some or most of their present circumstances in tough times. The survivalist has his own definition of preps. He practices to survive by anticipating and training for the worst of the possibilities.
Survivalism comes first, not last, because in the end preps assume the prepper survives to use them.
There are entirely reasonable variations on these themes. This is merely my personal arrangement.
He also goes on to say…
It appears we're at the start of an economic collapse similar to that of 1929 and into the 1930s. What we're seeing in Minneapolis and elsewhere appears to add the danger of organized violence.
A widespread decampment from big cities began some time ago and appears to be accelerating. Bloomberg reports RV sales are up 30% in some urban places.
The causes are fascinating but in the end what matters is how their migration to the "flyover country" they so despise may affect your personal plans.
July, when the long term direction of the economy will be plain to see, may be your last opportunity to shape your preparations more exactly, meaning food, shelter and protection. November is the month of the presidential election, when all sides reveal their intentions and one is chosen. It's also when winter weather begins.
Time is running out.
The United States is in a state of “free fall” and it’s only going to get worse. The American leadership are just actors reading scripted lines to appeal to the masses of under-educated, and easily manipulated serfs. This is a time when the actors and figureheads need to step aside and real leaders take the helm.
It’s not going to happen.
The only one that can prepare for this is you.
Friendships are your most valuable asset. Know everyone in your local neighborhood. Create strong friendships and alliances. Start today.
Keep your family close, protected and guarded. Youth must be corralled and controlled. They can easily create problems.
Organize and support each other. If no one stands up to lead, then you must do so. This could mean sharing resources, group patrols or sharing assets. Now is the time to organize.
Not every area is the same. Some areas will suffer more than others. Do not compare yourself to others. Just do the best in your little “neck of the woods”.
Things MIGHT calm down. I however, believe that this is the start of a three year long event cycle. Plan for the worst, but be cautiously hopeful.
About the urban rioters announcing that they are coming to the suburbs next…
“I would tell them, if you value your life, you probably shouldn’t do that in Polk County. Because the people of Polk County like guns, they have guns, I encourage them to own guns, and they’re going to be inside their homes tonight with their guns loaded. And if you try to break into their homes tonight and try to steal, to set fires, I’m highly recommending they blow you back out of the house with their guns.”
-Sheriff Grady Judd
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