The following is a chart based on the latest findings (as of 5MAR20) from a Los Alamos National Laboratory analysis of the outbreak in China in December 2019 and January 2020. I have placed the information on a graph using data from the Information is Beautiful website. It is very interesting and very instructive.

On the chart are two data points. They are labeled “L” and “S”. This is because there are two strains of the virus.

Coronavirus: there are 2 types, Chinese researchers find, while  authorities say faeces and urine can transmit the infection. They found  that one type, which they called the L type, was more prevalent than the  other, the S type, meaning it was more infectious.   

They also found that the L type had evolved from the S type, and that  the L type was far more widespread before January 7 and in Wuhan, ground  zero of the outbreak. 

https://lnkd.in/g-NrpBJ 

While there are two strains, I labeled the points in the chart based on the probability of where a given individual may live and their situation.

For instance, I live inside of China, but outside of Wuhan. For my situation, the data point “S” would be most appropriate. Everyone is taking extreme caution, and the hospital and medical facilities inside China are top rate.

If you, however lived in or near a city inside America, say Pittsburgh or Cleveland your data point might be in the middle of the red box. While those inside the big cities like Chicago, Los Angles and New York might be closer to the “L” data point.

"The preliminary study found that a more aggressive type [L] of the coronavirus accounted for about 70% of analyzed strains, while 30% was linked to a less aggressive type [S]." 

- Roger Ng 黄扬光

Notice where the flu is on the chart. It’s difficult to see. It is all the way over buried in the lower left hand corner. If you are treating this COVID-19 like the flu, you are making a grave mistake. It’s no where near as lethal or contagious.

Theraflu will not stop you from going into a seizure.

This COVID-19 coronavirus shares the same general region (on the chart) with Smallpox and the Bubonic Plague.

Additional notes of interest…

  The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

 [Excerpts:] Integrating uncertainties in the exponential growth  rate estimated from the ‘first arrival’ approach and the uncertainties  in the duration of latent and infectious periods, we estimated the  values of R0 to be 6.3 and 4.7. The high R0 values we estimated have  important implications for disease control.

 The 2019-nCoV epidemic is still rapidly growing and spread to  more than 20 countries as of February 5, 2020. Here, we estimated the  growth rate of the early outbreak in Wuhan to be 0.29 per day (a  doubling time of 2.4 days), and the reproductive number, R0, to be  between 4.7 to 6.6.

 How contagious the 2019-nCoV is in other countries remains to be  seen. If the value of R0 is as high in other countries, our results  suggest that active and strong population-wide social distancing  efforts, such as closing down transportation system, schools,  discouraging travel, etc., might be needed to reduce the overall  contacts to contain the spread of the virus.

 This shockingly high original Chinese R0 value meant a doubling of  the number of cases every few days, and subsequently, regional hospitals  were overrun by infected patients. The Chinese experience indicates how  it may spread in the West and the 3rd world. Critically, the  often-quoted case fatality rate (CFR) of “only” 2% for Covid-19 occurs  when severely affected patients have access to first-class medical  treatment, with teams of nurses and doctors caring for them in isolation  ICUs. About 15% of people infected with the virus will develop severe  symptoms (pneumonia, etc.) requiring intensive individual treatment in  order to survive. Once hospitals are swamped and many of the medical  staff become infected, the CFR can swiftly rise to above 15%. This is  believed to be the situation inside the Wuhan City quarantine zone.

 An infectious disease with an R-naught above five, and the number of  cases doubling every two days, is like a biological atomic bomb chain  reaction, particularly in the age of jet travel to all points of the  globe.   

Be safe everyone.

Please implement Chinese-level quarantine measures, and do not believe the nonsense that the flu is far worse. The Chinese were ONLY able to control the outbreak by putting the entire nation under the DEFCON ONE military emergency, and building three hospitals in the infected area. As well as moving all the national medical personnel to Wuhan.

That action controlled the mortality rate and moved it from 14% to 4% within Wuhan. And 1% in the rest of the nation.

This COVID-19 has brought everyone together…

 The virus is China’s 9/11. Not literally – there is a different  mechanism that created this crisis, not a terrorist attack but a viral  attack. But the effect on society is very similar – people feel the same.

The  single biggest effect of this virus on modern China is that it brought  people together in an unprecedented and organic way.   

It’s not the  result of a government campaign to foster national pride.  It came about  naturally, people have sacrificed in ways big and small, they have lost  income, family members have died, they have lost business, their  personal freedom of movement was sacrificed,  their children’s education  and lives have been upended, and more.  The whole country has pulled  together during this crisis.  The feeling, the emotion that this crisis  created in society is one of unity. Of strength and sacrifice for a  cause bigger than the individual. It has created an overwhelming wave of  pride and solidarity, of what some call nationalism.

...

  On a personal note:  To the people on LinkedIN who called me out for not  piling on to the criticism of China’s leadership or government for  handling the virus in the early days – I don’t care. It was inhumane,  unkind, and worse to lob criticism of any kind during onset of the  crisis. 

There has been a clear divide. Those that are engaged in  modern China, that live(d) there, that speak Chinese, that acknowledge  the complexity of modern China and can separate the people from their  government. And on the other side of the divide those that want to  enforce their own views about religion or political governance or  whatever soap box they want to get on and don’t care who they hurt along  the way. 

People have seen which side you are on. Last minute  posts trying to recast yourself as someone who cares – don’t undo a  month or more of hateful language directed towards the Chinese. 

- The COVID-19 Virus is China’s 9/11 

Most everyone (except for the 1% of “bad apples”) are with the program and 100% with the government. They are also very hyper-patriotic and very spiritual people. Here is a church service via the internet. Everyone is connected using their cell-phones and they are all singling together all over the nation. Check it out.

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More information on this subject can be found in my Trump Trade War index here…

Trump Trade War

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