By Pepe Escobar

(Written this morning in Istanbul, BEFORE Putin buried the Minsk agreements. Everything else – and beyond – stands.)

History will register that the birth of the baby twins – Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics – only a few hours before 2/22/22, was simultaneous to the birth of the real, 21^st century multipolar world.

• • • Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR)
    • Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR)

As my columns have stressed for a few years now, Vladimir Putin has been carefully nurturing his inner Sun Tzu.

And now it’s all in the open:

“Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”

The thunderbolt was months in the process of being meticulously polished.

To paraphrase Lenin, who “created Ukraine” (copyright Putin), we did live many decades in only these past few days.

• • • It all started with the detailed demands of security guarantees sent to the Americans, which Moscow knew would be rejected.  (The so called “non-ultimatum”.)
    • Then there was the Russia-China joint statement at the start of the Winter Olympics – which codifies not only the strategic partnership but also the key tenets of the multipolar world.
    • The culmination was a stunning, nearly one hour-long address to the nation by Putin shortly after the Russian Security Council live session deliberating on the request for independence by the DPR and the LPR (here is a condensed version.)

A few hours later, at an emergency UN Security Council meeting, Russian Permanent Representative Vasily Nebenzya precisely outlined why the recognition of the baby twins does not bury the Minsk agreements.

The baby twins (DPR & LPR) actually declared their independence in May 2014.

In 2015 they signed the Minsk agreements as one of the interested parties.

Theoretically they could even be back within Ukraine if Kiev would ever decide to respect the agreements, (which will never happen because the US has vetoed it since 2015).

Moreover, the people of Donbass do not want to be subjected to a regime harboring neo-Nazis.

As Nebenzya outlined,

“I would like to remind you that at the time of the conclusion of the Minsk agreements, the LPR and DPR had already declared independence. 

The fact that Russia today recognized it does not change the composition of the parties to the Minsk agreements, since Russia is not one (…) 

Another thing is that the Minsk agreements have long been openly sabotaged by Ukraine under the auspices of our Western colleagues. 

Now we see that many colleagues want to sign that the Minsk agreements are dead. 

But this is not the case (…) 

We are still open to diplomacy, but we do not intend to allow a new bloody massacre in the Donbass.”

And here’s the clincher, directly addressing imperial support for the killing of ethnic Russians in Donbass:

“The main task of our decision [on recognizing independence] was to preserve and protect these lives. 

This is more important than all your threats.”

There you go: Responsibility to Protect (R2P), a concept invented by the Americans to launch wars, used by Russia for preventing one.

That certified nullity, German chancellor Scholz, deriding Putin’s characterization of a genocide in Donbass as “laughable”, was a decisive factor in the birth of the baby wins.

Putin, in his address to the nation, especially took time to detail the Odessa massacre:

“We cannot but shudder when we remember about the situation in Odessa, when people were burned alive (…) 

And those criminals who did this, they are not punished (…) 

But we know their names, and we will do everything to punish them (…) and to bring them to justice.”

What about China?

Geopolitically, in Eurasian terms, two huge questions stand out: [1] the role of the CSTO and [2] the response from China.

If we look at the Article 19, Chapter VI of the  CSTO charter, we learn that,

“any state sharing the goals and principles of the Organization and being ready to undertake the obligations containing in this Charter and other international treaties and resolutions effective within the framework of the Organization may become a member of the Organization.”

That would open the door for the baby twins, as soon as they have finalized all the bureaucratic endeavors pertaining to new, independent nations, to request CSTO membership.

Incidentally, CSTO secretary-general Pashinian has already gone to Moscow to discuss this exact issue.

China is a way more complex proposition.

One of the key tenets of Beijing’s foreign policy is the fight against separatism – embedded in the foundation of the SCO.

So Beijing cannot possibly recognize the baby twins, or what would amount to Novorossiya – yes, Putin did pronounce the magic word – before Kiev itself does or, a serious possibility, completely disintegrates.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry so far has been extremely cautious.

Wang Yi has reiterated;

“China’s long-standing position that the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be respected, and the purposes & principles of the UN Charter must be upheld.”

Further on down the road, presumably after some serious exchanges between Wang Yi and Lavrov, China can always find myriad ways to unofficially help the baby twins – including advancing BRI-related connectivity and sustainable development projects.

As for Kiev disintegration, that’s directly linked to Moscow demanding the immediate stop of the mini-blitzkrieg against Donbass, otherwise they will bear full responsibility.

Yes, regime stalwarts will be hunted and punished – complete with a possible War Crimes Tribunal.

Its no wonder all sorts of oligarchic/political rats, big and small, are scurrying away, to Lviv, Poland and the UK.

The Munich effect

The intervention of all 12 members at the Security Council session, combined with Putin’s address to the nation was the stuff of gripping geopolitical drama.

Putin’s body language and the look in his eyes testified to the immense gravity of the moment – and it all came to the forefront when he embarked in a concise history lesson spanning a century.

Barely containing his anger at the countless ways Russia has been vilified by the West, and taking no prisoners when referring to communism, what mostly stood out was the clear-cut rendition of the insurmountable antagonism between the Anglo-American islands and the civilizational Heartland – or the clash between maritime powers and land powers.

That Eurasia classic was the bulk of his exposition: the recognition of the baby twins took less than three minutes.

The Munich Security Conference, this past weekend, had made it all so explicit.

Munich, as terrifying as it was in terms of a congregation of headless chickens posing as eagles, at least confirmed everything is in the open.

• • • The enemy is Russia.
    • NATO infinite expansion – to outer space – is against Russia.
    • And then we had a parade of add-on threats:
      • no disarmament in Eastern Europe,
      • cutting off the Russian economy from the EU,
      • end of Nord Stream 2,
      • Ukraine in NATO,
      • world order built on “universal liberal values”.

Munich spelled out No Compromise Whatsoever – which was exactly what Putin, Lavrov, Patrushev and co. expected.

The warmongering rhetoric burying any meaningful discussion of migration, inflation, cyber wars, the European energy crisis.

And, of course, the only thing that matters for the MICIMATT (military-industrial-congressional-intelligence-media-academia-think tank complex, as defined by Ray McGovern):

• • • Let’s milk this Eurotrash lot for untold billions in new contracts.
    • Let’s isolate Russia.
    • Let’s destroy Nord Stream 2 to sell them our ultra expensive LNG.
    • Let’s keep them on a leash – forever.

So actually it’s not even war against Russia: the $30 trillion-indebted Empire with a woke military attached simply could not afford it.

Not to mention the certified freak out in case they receive a phone call from Mr. Khinzal and Mr. Zircon : cue to the spectacular Russian display of “military and technical” superiority, hypersonic and otherwise – staged, irony of ironies, in synch with the circus in Munich.

What we have here is so lame: just a lowlife offer-you-can’t-refuse racket to be inflicted on the EU.

The Indivisible Security dance

The rabid Munich “No Compromise” show; the imperially-ordered Ukro crypto-blitzkrieg against Donbass; and the role of the US Lack of Intelligence Community – an Andrei Martyanov-coined howler – altogether sealed the deal for the Security Council deliberations and Putin’s decision.

Considering the ideological stupidity of the current Brussels gang – Stoltenberg, von der Leyen, Borrell –, incapable of understanding even basic economics, the fact remains that the EU without Russian energy is doomed.

Martyanov stresses the algorithm: Russia can afford the break up with Europe. Europe cannot.

The US just wants to collect.

And we’re not even talking about the dire, incoming ramifications of the systemic crisis across NATOstan.

Even as Moscow plays a very long, calculated game, as it stands that does not necessarily mean that Russia will be “winning” the baby twins while “losing” Europe.

Russia’s strategic swing repeatedly baffles the Atlanticist combo.

The US lack of intelligence community was predicting a Russian “aggression” every other day – and still is.

Instead they got the baby twins as the latest independent republics of the Global South.

Even before Munich, the Ukro crypto-blitzkrieg, and the recognition of the baby twins, Moscow had again warned it may respond with “military and technical measures” to ensure its own security after the US and NATO blatantly ignored key points from its proposal for a long-term European security architecture, and instead “cherry-picked” issues from a package deal.

Moscow will not let the Americans run away from the by now notorious 10-page Russian response.

Putin, addressing the Stavka, had already warned …

“we are in a situation (…) where we are forced to resolve it.”

Which bring us to what John Helmer niftly qualified as Russia’s black box defense.

The beauty is no one knows what’s inside the black box.

Enter, once again, the “military-technical measures” that will be “reciprocal” (Putin) to what US and NATOstan are already deploying against Russia.

They won’t necessarily be implemented in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, in the airspace above Donbass, even in cyberspace.

It could be anywhere – from the Syrian theater to Latin America. From Brussels to New York City.

Surprise!

That’s what strategic ambivalence, ambiguity, or – let’s get down to the rhythm – swing is all about.

You don’t believe in the principle of indivisible security?

• Fine.

Now we dictate the security rhythm.

You’re not gonna stop deploying nuclear weapons outside your territory?

• Fine.

Here’s some reciprocity.

You’re not gonna accept legally binding guarantees of our security?

• Fine.

Meet our “military-technical” measures.

Now dance, suckers.

I just listened to Biden (here if you have the stomach). Oh he is pissed, badly.  Putin totally and comprehensively ignored him or the USA (one sign of that is that Putin did warn Scholz and Macron but, apparently, nobody told the White House).

Scholz truly scared the Kremlin when he told that he pulled back the certification of NS2 “jetzt” that is “now”.

Okay, he probably misspoke, he meant “no NS2 forever!”.

Scholz is one tough cookie!

I love it when petty flaccid Eurognomes try to scare Russia.

With sanctions, of all things.

This is RUSSIA we are talking about.

Of all people, the Germans ought to know better.

I guess they don’t.

• Fine, I wish the Germans lots of fun!

Speaking of NS2, two small factoids:

• • • gas prices are already up by 10% in the spot markets.
    • Thanks to the increase of the energy prices Gazprom has already paid for the construction of NS2 with that extra windfall (that according to a senior Duma member, Petr Tolstoy).

Where do you think this is headed?

Exactly, me too!

Biden also said something two really interesting in his otherwise totally vapid speed.

First, he asked who the hell Putin thought he was to recognize states in other sovereign nations?

Second, he warned Russia: we shall judge you by your actions.

I think I can help Biden and give him two very simple replies:

1. Putin is the President of Russia and he does ask for anybody’s approval, least of all – the USA’s.
2. You don’t get to judge Russia.  That ship has sailed.  If anything, the day will come when Zone B will judge you on a 21st century of the Nuremberg Tribunal.  As Putin said “we have all their names”.

But I also know this: in the minds of the leaders of Zone A both of these replies are literally *unthinkable*.  Ok.

Hence, they will have to be shown that which they currently cannot fathom.

Today the Russian Duma and Federation Council have ratified all the needed documents and given Putin the right to engage Russian forces abroad.

Where exactly was not specified.

Putin was asked about where he would engage the Russian forces and he basically reply “wait and see, we will use them wherever needed and to comply with all our obligations”.

Putin loves to make the western Tabaki-jackals guess his next move.  He is now openly trolling them 🙂

Western Crusaders attacking Russia is nothing new.

But in the past, the Crusaders were at least a credible threat (at times, even a very credible one).

But the modern Crusaders are a joke.

Their threats are a joke, their armed forces are a joke and their leaders are a joke.

A good example is Biden sending more of this invincible military forces to the Baltic statelets.

I am sure the Russians are now truly terrified.

What we do know is the the good folks at Commentary Mag are bracing for impact.

Will the people of the USA find out, for the very first time, that the actions of their rulers can actually directly impact them personally?

God willing, they will learn fast and act accordingly.

What about the Ukros?

So far, they have mostly ignored Putin’s warnings to “immediately cease the attacks against the LDNR”.

I don’t know if they are amazingly courageous, very dumb or suicidal.

Either way, I would recommend they heed Putin’s warning, there shall be no more warnings.

True, the know that their western masters don’t give a damn about Russian lives, mass graves, thousands of kidnapped “separatists”, numerous torture centers or open calls to murder.

• Fine.  So for 8 years the Ukronazis have murdered the Russian by the tens of thousands.

But don’t they understand that their lives will be the next one?

Or do they really think that the western “advisors” will protect them?

Oh well, I guest that, again, they will have to be shown that which they currently cannot fathom.

By the way,

From a legal point of view, until now Russia has insisted that this was an internal Ukrainian civil war and not an international conflict.

Now this has changed.

Now, from the point of view of the Kremlin, this is now an international conflict directly involving Russia.

Here I want to use the occasion to congratulate the United West and, especially, the Ukronazis.  For seven years you dreamed about a war involving Russia.

BRAVO! Congrats – now you got what you fought so hard for: the Russian bear has *officially* placed a paw on the LDNR.

Now I want to see who you all will volunteer to make move first to make him remove that paw 🙂

Maybe the US forces in the Baltics?

Or the Poles?

Maybe the Czechs or even the Brits?

Something tells me that “super-pooper sanctions from hell” and hurricanes of hot air are more likely.

Crusaders are not like they used to be.

Good.

Andrei

So what are we actually talking about here?

We are talking about SERIOUS consequences made by idiots who have no concept about what kind of deep-shit that they are in now. They simply do not realize that they are in deep, deep shit.

We are talking about a cocky know-it-all little punk bully threatening a group of  big, burly, mean and nasty hard-core bikers.

The bullet is going to hit the bone.

HERE

I do not know how it will happen, nor, what will happen. I do not know when it will happen, or any of the particulars. But I do know THAT it will happen.

It will be very bad.

Certainly the American media are hyping up war. But they are just treating it like some kind of Baseball game, and not the threat of massive nuclear destruction of the host cities (American, British, NATO) promoting this danger.

To imagine that the United States would remain unscathed after all this provication (not to mention their color revolution that set up the current Neo-Nazi regime in 2014) is unfathonable.

But there you have it. Spin the narrative…

Others, including myself, have suggested that it might include a nuclear first strike. Maybe or maybe not. As I see things, the USA is already half destroyed as it is. Why use a cannon when a slingshot will do?

But seriously, and cautiously, realize that Asia is defining the rules right now. And the expectations of the collective West might as well be thrown out the window. They are as obsolete as a buggy whip.

Putin goes to Siberia

Whoa!

Russia Fires “Warning Shots” at American Navy

Russian ship “Admiral Essen” fires warning shots in front of US ships in the Black Sea.

The Russians report that the frigate “Admiral Essen” fired warning shots in front of American ships in the Black Sea.

"The appearance of three US Navy ships has forced Russia to show strength to the US military and use radical methods to reassure them of the protection of its borders."

That is why the frigate “Admiral Essen” fired Kalibr cruise missiles in front of American ships.

At the moment we are talking about a practical training ” the Russian media report and emphasize the” for now “while adding:

"All the targets were successfully hit by the Russian cruise missiles, although the exact area and the distance they traveled were not known."

"Russia has successfully completed the launch of the missiles and has shown its readiness to use these weapons against anyone who threatens Russia,"

…said a Russian expert.

Nuclear thoughts…

Look at some “nuclear strike maps”.

Many of the nuclear strike maps were made before Russia and China developed systems to shoot down ICBMs and SLBM missiles. They also reflected an industrial base that disappeared in the 1980s.

In the map below, it suggests that the Russians would hit the underground ICBM silos, knock out Pittsburgh, and Syracuse. My guess that it would be a quite different target map.

And here in this map, the strikes as triangles are most accurate. Though you wouldn’t need to launch all those nuclear bombs to take out the coastal cities. Just generate a huge tidal wave with the Satan 2 standoff weapon.

And here we see that FEMA still ignores the Satan 2, and the irrelevance of the Underground Minuteman silos.

Not a joke

The United States has grown accustomed to picking on nations, sanctioning them, starting “color revolutions”, sabotaging their food supplies and all the rest. Now, both Russia and China told the United States to STOP.

And the United States said no.

And it’s allies agreed with the United States, and also said no

And I really don’t think thay are ready for the consequences of dealing with a very angry and pissed off Asia. As the consequences can end up being most lethal…

Conclusions

There’s a major realignment of global power taking place. The fulcrum is now directly under us. And as such the balance of power is now tipping and changing. And like all changes in equilibrium, once the tipping point has been reached, the changes come quick, fast and sudden.

Look at all the things that happened since three months ago. Things are moving fast, and swift.

No need to panic, that is unless you are an avid consumer of Western “news” or are a technology billionaire of some pedigree.

Just stay calm and let the changes manifest. Things will be fine in the afterwards. They really will.

In the meantime, appreciate what you have. Worrying about a future that might not materialize is fruitless. It has been my experience that our fears never happen, but change does.

So enjoy what you have…

A Nice Chinese girl

She looks like she could really use a nice delicious meal. Along with a nice light wine, and some delicious salad.

I love her eyes. They are really big.