It is late August 2020. The United States is a mess. It really is. Even my Chinese friends who normally don’t bother with the news and international issues can see this. Face it. The United States is collapsing and all the rest of the world can do is hold on, and hope that there are some smart people managing the collapse.
Many of the nouveau riche, the ultra-wealthy, can read the handwriting on the wall. They can see the wheels coming off in America, as a debt-soaked economy, along with violence and pervasive poverty continues to increase, and our national problems have all resisted solutions and resolutions for years. Federal government has become virtually dysfunctional, as the political extremism has destroyed professionalism and cooperation, and politicians accuse, insult, even curse at each other without ever agreeing on anything. It is not surprising that they're lining up other countries they can move to when the time comes. And the way things are going, that time is almost now. -Marketwatch
The following is a well written article that I pulled off the UNZ website. I passed it on to other retired professionals, current analysts, and businessmen in very senior roles within global international companies and asked them for their opinions. These are not the people who make decisions based on what MSN, CNN, Drudge, or Rush Limbaugh has to say. Instead, these are people who have experience in global trade, scientific advancements and technology. They are the people who actually make the decisions (on a working level) regarding international commerce and industry. Of the around two hundred that I queried, about thirty five responded.
All of them that responded pretty much agreed with me that is is a very accurate assessment on what is going on within China, and the world currently. That it makes complete sense, and that they have expected this all to occur and be put into place.
If you want to part the curtains a little bit, and see how things are really working…
…free of all that “noise” from the political, and media machinery within the United States (and their client nations) then read this post.
This is a reprint of “Everything Going According to Plan in China. The contours of China’s long-term strategy for the new Cold War are quickly coming into view” by Pepe Escobar. Found on the UNZ website. Written August 24, 2020. Edited to fit this venue. All credit to the author. With 33 Comments on the original post. (Republished from Asia Times)
Everything Going According to Plan in China. The contours of China’s long-term strategy for the new Cold War are quickly coming into view
Let’s start with the story of an incredibly disappearing summit.
The mysterious secretive BeiDaiHe Meeting
Every August, the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) converges to the town of Beidaihe, a seaside resort some two hours away from Beijing. They do so to discuss serious policies that then coalesce into key planning strategies. Strategies that are presented to be approved at the CCP Central Committee plenary session later on in October.
The Beidaihe ritual was established by none other than Great Helmsman Mao, who loved the town where. It is not by accident, Emperor Qin, the unifier of China in the 3rd century B.C., kept a palace there.
2020 being, so far, a notorious Year of Living Dangerously, it’s no surprise that in the end Beidaihe was nowhere to be seen.
The Chinese Leadership is a cautious organization.
Yet Beidaihe’s invisibility does not mean it did not happen. It did.
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 1 was the fact that Premier Li Keqiang simply disappeared from public view for nearly two weeks.
Curiously, this was after President Xi chaired a crucial Politburo gathering in late July. One where he laid out no less than China’s whole development strategy for the next 15 years.
Premier Li Keqiang resurfaced soon afterwards. Suddenly chairing a special session of the all-powerful State Council.
This was at the same time that (CCP’s top ideologue), Wang Huning (who happens to be number 5 in the Politburo) showed up as the special guest at a meeting of the All China Youth Federation.
What’s even more intriguing is that side by side with Wang, one would find Ding Xuexiang.
Ding Xuexiang is President Xi’s chief of staff.
He wasn’t alone. There were three other Politburo members with him.
In this “now you see them, now you don’t” variation, the fact that they all showed up in unison after an absence of nearly two weeks was more than just curious..
This led sharp Chinese observers to conclude that Beidaihe in fact had taken place. Even if no visible signs of political action by the seaside had been detected.
Curious. The semi-official spin is that no get-together happened at Beidaihe because of Covid-19.
Exhibit 2
Yet it’s Exhibit 2 that may clinch the deal for good.
The by now famous end of July Politburo meeting chaired by Xi in fact sealed the Central Committee plenary session in October.
Translation: the contours of the strategic road map ahead had already been approved by consensus. There was no need to retreat to Beidaihe for further discussions.
Trial balloons or official policy?
The plot thickens when one takes into consideration a series of trial balloons that started to float a few days ago in select Chinese media. Here are some of the key points.
[1] On the trade war…
On the trade war front, Beijing won’t shut down US businesses already operating in China. But companies which want to enter the market in finance, information technology, healthcare and education services will not be approved.
[2] US Treasuries
Beijing won’t dump all its overwhelming mass of US Treasuries in one go, but – as it already happens – divestment will accelerate. Last year, that amounted to $100 billion. Up to the end of 2020, that could reach $300 billion.
[3] The Yuan as a global currency
The internationalization of the yuan, also predictably, will be accelerated. That will include configuring the final parameters for clearing US dollars through the CHIPS Chinese system – foreseeing the incandescent possibility Beijing might be cut off from SWIFT by the Trump administration or whoever will be in power at the White House after January 2021.
[4] America’s “Hybrid War”
On what is largely interpreted across China as the “full spectrum war” front, mostly Hybrid War, the PLA has been put into Stage 3 alert – and all leaves are canceled for the rest of 2020. There will be a concerted drive to increase all-round defense spending to 4% of GDP and accelerate the development of nuclear weapons. Details are bound to emerge during the Central Committee meeting in October.
[5] Chinese Independence and Self-Reliance
The overall emphasis is on a very Chinese spirit of self-reliance, and building what can be defined as a national economic “dual circulation” system: the consolidation of the Eurasian integration project running in parallel to a global yuan settlement mechanism.
Inbuilt in this drive is what has been described as…
“to firmly abandon all illusions about the United States... ...and conduct war mobilization with our people. We shall vigorously promote the war to resist US aggression... ...We will use a war mindset to steer the national economy... ...Prepare for the complete interruption of relations with the US.”
It’s unclear as it stands if these are only trial balloons disseminated across Chinese public opinion or decisions reached at the “invisible” Beidaihe.
So all eyes will be on what kind of language this alarming configuration will be packaged when the Central Committee presents its strategic planning in October.
Significantly, that will happen only a few weeks before the US election.
It’s all about continuity
All of the above somewhat mirrors a recent debate in Amsterdam on what constitutes the Chinese “threat” to the West.
Here are the key points.
[1] The Chinese Hybrid Economic Model
China constantly reinforces its hybrid economic model – which is an absolute rarity, globally: neither totally publicly owned nor a market economy.
[2] Hyper-Patriotic Nation
The level of patriotism is staggering: once the Chinese face a foreign enemy, 1.4 billion people act as one.
[3] No infighting. Powerful levers of control.
National mechanisms have tremendous force: absolutely nothing blocks the full use of China’s financial, material and manpower resources once a policy is set.
[4] Largest Industrial System on the Planet
China has set up the most comprehensive, back to back industrial system on the planet, without foreign interference if need be (well, there’s always the matter of semiconductors to Huawei to be solved).
[5] Long term planning
China plans not only in years, but in decades. Five year plans are complemented by ten year plans and as the meeting chaired by Xi showed, 15 year plans. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is in fact a nearly 40-year plan, designed in 2013 to be completed in 2049.
[6] Continuity of long-term purpose
And continuity is the name of the game – when one thinks that the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, first developed in 1949 and then expanded by Zhou Enlai at the Bandung conference in 1955 are set in stone as China’s foreign policy guidelines.
Conclusion
China is dealing with Chinese issues inside of China using Chinese methods. It is succeeding, and the future (as scary as it appears) seems to be well mapped out by a capable leadership supported by a robust industry, and an enthusiastic populace. America hasn't a clue. It's still a mish-mash of politics, crime, corruption and distortions. No one inside of America trusts their government, their police or their military. To try to distract attention from domestic issues by having a war with a very robust nations would be national suicide.
The Qiao collective, an independent group that advances the role of qiao (“bridge”) by the strategically important huaqiao (“overseas Chinese”) is on point when they note that Beijing never proclaimed a Chinese model as a solution to global problems.
What they extol is Chinese solutions to specific Chinese conditions.
A forceful point is also made that historical materialism is incompatible with capitalist liberal democracy forcing austerity and regime change on national systems, shaping them towards preconceived models.
That always comes back to the core of the CCP foreign policy: each nation must chart a course fit for its national conditions.
And that reveals the full contours of what can be reasonably described as a Centralized Meritocracy with Confucian, Socialist Characteristics: a different civilization paradigm that the “indispensable nation” still refuses to accept, and certainly won’t abolish by practicing Hybrid War.
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