Yup. We’ve still got the onslaught of “threats of war” and other bullshit on a railroad train straight to Hell. But you know, we don’t have to ride. So let’s just review what is going on right now, and live life on our terms instead. Ukraine; please put up the white flag and get off the American locomotive.
So yeah.
Enjoy.
Heavily promoted article on Conservative American Media
This article is popping up all over American Conservative media. Not only once or twice, but multiple times over a period of days. Someone REALLY wants to promote this particular narrative…
As I have said, over and over… Look at what is NOT being reported, and observe what is being reported heavily.
You have to ask “why?”
It all makes me hungry.
Slow-Cooker Beef Brisket
Simple, savory and warming, this slow-cooker brisket is a traditional take on pot roast that’s as easy as it is comforting. Make it the centerpiece of a family feast, or slice and shred it for a sandwich stuffer. Either way, this brisket is true to tradition (or maybe it’s superstition), in that it tastes better the next day. So next time you’re hosting the family gathering, save some stress and get this done ahead of time.
Ingredients
- 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 lb fresh beef brisket (not corned beef)
- 2 tablespoons vegetable oil
- 2 teaspoons salt
- 2 teaspoons pepper
- 2 cups thinly sliced onions
- 1 cup 1 1/2-inch pieces peeled carrots
- 5 cloves garlic, chopped
- 1 can (14.5 oz) Muir Glen™ organic fire roasted diced tomatoes, undrained
- 1 cup Progresso™ beef flavored broth (from 32-oz carton)
Step 1
Spray 6-quart slow cooker with cooking spray. Rub brisket with 1 tablespoon of the vegetable oil. Rub with salt and pepper. Heat 12-inch skillet over medium-high heat. Cook brisket in skillet 2 minutes on fattiest side, then turn and cook 2 to 3 minutes on other side, until browned. Transfer to slow cooker.
Step 2
Reduce heat to medium; add remaining tablespoon of vegetable oil to skillet. Add onions; cook 5 to 8 minutes, stirring frequently, until beginning to brown. Add carrots and garlic; cook 1 minute. Stir in tomatoes and broth; heat just to simmering. Pour mixture over brisket in slow cooker. Cover and cook on Low heat setting 7 to 8 hours or until brisket is very tender.
Step 3
Transfer brisket to cutting board; cool slightly, cut into slices, and serve with vegetables and cooking juices.
Britain adds MORE nuclear warheads to Trident submarines
BRITAIN has increased the number of warheads each Trident nuclear missile carries as part of a precautionary measure in the face of growing threats from Russia.
News of the move – which follows a decision last year to increase the overall warhead stockpile – emerges ahead of tomorrow’s May 9 celebrations in Moscow, where Vladimir Putin is expected to send a “doomsday message” to the west. Britain’s continuous at-sea nuclear deterrent uses four Vanguard-class submarines, of which two are always on patrol, while a third is at operational readiness and the fourth undergoes maintenance.
Following the 2010 defense review, it was decided that each armed boat be allowed to carry a maximum of 40 warheads to be distributed unevenly among eight D5 missiles.
However, while details are classified, it is believed the V-boats have been carrying considerably fewer of both.
Last year defense secretary Ben Wallace announced a significant shift in Britain’s nuclear posture by announcing the number of nuclear warheads in Britain’s arsenal would increase by 40 per cent to 260.
Most of the warheads, which are manufactured in Britain, have a yield of 80-100 kilotons – the equivalent of TNT –five or six times greater than the “Little Boy” atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
The move, announced as the Integrated Review dubbed Russia Britain’s “most acute threat”, reversed a decision which was to have seen the number of warheads reduced from 195 to 180.
But it was not until Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine that steps began to be taken to increase the nuclear payloads carried by the Trident fleet, sources have confirmed.
In a statement made just days after the February 24 invasion, the Russian leader warned that any nation that considered interfering from outside would “face consequences greater than any you have faced in history”.
He placed Russia’s nuclear deterrent on high alert, test fired a new Satan 2 missile which can carry 15 warheads and has a range of 11,000 miles.
Since then, prime time broadcasts on state-owned channels have continued to suggest that Russia would use nuclear weapons against countries who supported Ukraine.
MM commentary
Each of the two British Trident submarines will now carry 40 nuclear warheads of around 100 kTons in a single sub that only has 8 D5 missiles. These missiles are not MIRV.
It’s one missile, one bomb.
They fire a missile and then the ship is sunk.
The Brits and the United Stats has NOT been able to fire SLBM simultaneously, or one right after the other within 40 seconds like the Chinese and the Russians have.
Meanwhile, Russia has a single Satan two carrying 20 hyper-velocity MIRV each with multiple 240,000 KTon payload.
To me, as a weapons wonk, it looks like Britain is playing with slingshots while Russia has a twin-barreled 10 GA shotgun.
This is a dangerous “game” they are playing.
Trailer Park Boys Space Weed
Enjoy this strange Canadian comedy…
Boris Johnson – “Military aid to Ukraine is no longer enough to defend it.”
The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, said Sunday “Military aid to Ukraine is no longer enough to defend it.”
Ever anxious to exercise AMERICAN military might, and shed AMERICAN Blood, this is the “go” signal to other NATO members that the UK wants a military intervention with troops into Ukraine; which will result in literal World War 3 with Russia.
Hal Turner Commentary Opinion
I get tired repeating that this war is NOT just about Ukraine.
Russia prepared for this war since 2014 when the EU and USA overthrew the Ukraine government and installed a puppet government there. NATO has been preparing as well.
Ukraine is just the first step. Ukraine as a NATO member or under NATO control, is important because it gives NATO a massive opportunity to strike Russia without exposing Western Europe, or at least this is what West is thinking.
Ukraine under Russian control is EXTREMELY important for Russia, because it is a huge buffer against NATO.
Two of the Baltic states that are NATO and border Russia are INSIGNIFICANT, so the argument that NATO already borders Russia is null. Russia can overrun them in 24 hours.
So, again, until FACTS will catch up, this war is not about Ukraine, or not just about Ukraine.
It is a war of survival for Russia, and a war of expansion for the West, aiming at dismantling Russia and stealing its resources, just like Iraq, Libya, Syria, and ~20 other countries the West invaded in the last 70 years.
Who is going to win this war? The big one, not the Ukraine war?
(It will be) The ones fighting for survival …OR NO ONE, because those fighting for survival WILL nuke the shit out of the West.
Whether we like it or not, WW3 is imminent, and WILL be nuclear.
Slowly, but surely, those of us who argued that this war was clearly in the making for a long time, are proven right.
There is no way in hell that NATO and Russia “just” happen to be on a collision course after a few months.
There is no way in hell that Russia just decided to invade Ukraine, without knowing that NATO will intervene.
There is no way in hell that both NATO and Russia did not know, since the 2008 Bucharest Summit, that war is going to be inevitable, and both sides prepared since at least that point in time.
I don’t want to see war except in documentaries. I live extremely close to an area that will see WW3 . . . New York City. And even if this WW3 will not affect the entire world, or the entire Europe, it will 100% affect where my house is.
The U.K. is ALWAYS saying first what the U.S. will say later. So when Boris Johnson said today “Military aid to Ukraine is no longer enough to defend it” that’s the gigantic balloon going up.
Americans would do well to remember that we threw-off the King of England because he and his minions were despicable, lying, cheating, thieving, people who did great harm to us.
The British do not call what happened between us and them “The American Revolution” they call it “The American Insurrection.”
They never got over us breaking away and never forgave us for daring to do so.
Britain wants HARM to come to the United States because Britain is a little country, with a little economy, and a little military that can’t do much of anything anymore. But with America and Russia GONE, Britain would once have the ability to create a British Empire.
Britain wants us all dead so their little, insignificant country can rise in world stature again.
But Britain can’t defeat us, politically, economically, or militarily. In addition, Britain cannot defeat Russia. Soooooo, Britain is trying to get America and Russia to fight each other, and KILL EACH OTHER, so we’re all out of its way.
The advice and desires of Boris Johnson and the United Kingdom should be viewed by Americans as the deadliest of snake venom.
I had hoped that this war could be avoided, and still hope…but once the U.S. began deploying the omen of war in the area (A-10 jets), which arrived in Norway this weekend as seen in photos below, my hopes diminished to an absolute zero.
Four A-10’s arrived in Norway. Six others flew to North Macedonia on May 7th.
I spoke to a US military contact Sunday afternoon and he told me directly:
"Russia has a very large and effective fleet of nuclear submarines that lie off the coast of the U.S. They have a great number of nuclear-tipped missiles that can evade any defenses we have. If there were a nuclear war, all of northern Virginia would be essentially annihilated." "The Pentagon would simply be a glowing mass of molten sand. There would be no human life there. There would be no human life for many miles around it. Just across the Potomac, the nation’s capital, there would be no life remaining in the nation’s capital" "...you have the Norfolk Naval Shipyard, you have the Port of Norfolk. You have the greatest accumulation of naval power on the face of the Earth. This is where we park all of our aircraft carriers, our nuclear submarines, all of those things. There would be nothing remaining."
…
I would be on guard for anything within the next 24 hrs.
It doesn’t make sense why Trudeau and his ministers would be in Ukraine, along with Pelosi, Jill Biden, …Bono…
Add this to the pope saying Russia assured him it would end today, and the fact of Russia holding a parade.
The parade strikes me as a ruse.
Putin is moving his troops from Syria, and with Boris Johnson’s comment things are extremely tense right now.
It has a feeling that something is being built up to. A-10 warthogs brought in, and the only way they can be piloted is having the crews who are assigned to them and know the aircraft. U.S. crews.
I think NATO joins in the war VERY VERY soon!
It may be a matter of hours or days, but it looks like that’s what is going to happen.
…
Update:
Russian State Duma Speaker:
"The declaration of the G7 not to allow Russia to achieve victory in Ukraine is evidence of the success of our military operation. Russia has smashed NATO's plans to expand eastward."
The president of the Russian Space Agency just said,
“If there is a nuclear war, we will wipe out NATO countries from the world in 30 minutes.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that
(We will not allow) "peace be accepted on Russia's terms: There should be no dictatorship of the world by Russia. The Ukrainians will not accept him, and we will not accept him either”
According to the Social Media Post below, Russia is sending GENERAL MOBILIZATION NOTICES out TONIGHT!
MORE: Russia is reportedly transferring units from Syria to Ukraine. These Russian units will cede bases to Iran and Hezbollah. Israel will be on high alert.
ICING ON THE CAKE:
From Politico…
On a FINAL NOTE:
Look what the Pentagon announced today in the social media posting below . . . Who asked them? . . . . and WHY do they feel the need to say this??????
Mama decides to run for mayor | Mama’s Family
This is the start of a very funny episode…
The Battery Boom Will Redraw Geopolitical Maps
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,
- The vulnerability of global energy markets is once again back in focus due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
- The race for a renewable future will come with its own geopolitical issues and could lead to new conflicts as new supply chains emerge.
- In March, President Biden introduced a plan to secure the strategic and critical materials necessary for the clean energy transition—such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and manganese.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed, once again, the vulnerability of the global energy markets and economy to the actions of petrostates with the power to weaponize their energy resources for political purposes. In the biggest shock to oil flows since the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the war in Ukraine and the hesitancy of Europe to immediately punish Putin threw into sharp relief the geopolitical power that countries with huge oil and gas resources currently hold.
The European Union’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is to wean off Russian energy as soon as possible and reduce overall fossil fuel consumption in the longer term in order to stop being beholden to malign actors for energy sources.
The mad dash to boost renewables and transport electrification, however, comes with its own set of geopolitical issues.
Countries that aren’t Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran hold vast resources of the metals and minerals that will be critical to enabling a faster energy transition. But those resource holders also include Russia, China, and a host of African and South American nations still living “the resource curse”, where conflict, forced and child labor, and critically low environmental standards are undermining the “green” credentials of the clean energy transition.
As developed economies look to lessen their dependence on fossil fuels and, by extension, on the political goals and whims of major oil and gas resource holders such as Russia and the members of OPEC, the geopolitical influence of the petrostates would likely wane over time. But a new geopolitical issue would rise—potential dependence on countries holding resources of critical minerals. And those countries include the likes of China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), for example.
Oil Wars
The geopolitics of oil resources has shaped the second half of the 20th century and continues to do so in the 21st century.
“Although the threat of “resource wars” over possession of oil reserves is often exaggerated, the sum total of the political effects generated by the oil industry makes oil a leading cause of war,” Jeff D. Colgan, Assistant Professor in the School of International Service at American University in Washington, D.C, wrote in a policy brief in the peer-reviewed journal International Security nearly a decade ago.
Since 1973, between one-quarter and one-half of interstate wars have been connected to one or more oil-related causal mechanisms, Colgan notes, adding that “No other commodity has had such an impact on international security.”
International and energy security continue to be influenced by fossil fuel resources a decade later.
Due to the high dependence on Russian oil by some of its members, the EU is debating how to implement an oil embargo on Moscow without plunging Europe into a recession and without fracturing a united EU front against Putin and his aggression in Ukraine.
Renewables Could Hold The Key To Energy Independence…
Therefore, the EU is looking to switch to renewables faster, as a way to reduce fossil fuel consumption and reliance on Russia.
“The quicker we switch to renewables and hydrogen, combined with more energy efficiency, the quicker we will be truly independent and master our energy system,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in early March, announcing a goal to reduce EU demand for Russian gas by two-thirds before the end of this year.
“Renewables give us the freedom to choose an energy source that is clean, cheap, reliable, and ours. And instead of funding fossil fuel imports and Russian oligarchs, we can create jobs here,” European Commission Executive Vice-President for the European Green Deal, Frans Timmermans, said.
The EV revolution would also help reduce the geopolitical power of petrostates.
“The ability to electrify transportation and get off combusting fossil fuels, and oil specifically, means we would solve massive geopolitical problems, which have been just a plague for the last 100 years,” Adam Scott, executive director at Toronto-based charity advocating for sustainable investing, Shift, told Andre Mayer of Canada’s CBC News.
…If Clean Energy Didn’t Need Key Metals Resources
The war in Ukraine is accelerating the shift to increased investment in renewables as a way to lessen dependence on imports of fossil fuels, a large part of which comes from OPEC and Russia.
However, the big challenge in the energy transition will be supply chains, Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said last week.
“Costs for solar and wind turbine components are already experiencing inflation and demand is only going to intensify. There’s also going to be a massive scramble to access the metals to build out electrification – from steel, key base metals including copper, aluminum and nickel, and battery raw materials,” Flowers noted.
Developed economies, including the United States, currently depend on imports for boosting low-carbon energy sources. The U.S. imports more than half of its annual consumption of 31 of the 35 critical minerals, the Department of Energy said at the start of President Biden’s term in office. America does not have domestic production for 14 of those critical minerals and is completely dependent on imports to supply its demand.
President Biden included in March strategic and critical materials necessary for the clean energy transition—such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and manganese for large-capacity batteries—in the Defense Production Act of 1950.
This is a step in the right direction for ensuring more domestic supply, considering that geopolitics will play a role in the energy transition, too, although the resource holders may be different.
“There is an underappreciated risk to the energy transition: the supply of clean energy depends on mined natural resources, which are steeped in geological, geopolitical, and governance challenges,” KPMG and Eurasia Group said in a report last year.
The new global energy ecosystem could shift “from OPEC to OMEC”, where OMEC is what KPMG and Eurasia Group describe as a “freshly minted acronym for ‘Organisation of Mineral Exporting Countries’ – this grouping may not yet exist, but the point remains: geopolitical power could shift from oil-dominated countries to critical metal-dominated countries.”
Family Ties – Sin Against Capitalism
A President Reagan-era sitcom… Can you catch the jokes?
Woman Snags Priceless Roman Bust For $35 At Texas Thrift Shop
In 2018, an antique dealer with a good eye snagged a 2,200-year-old Roman bust at a Goodwill in Austin, Texas for just $35, after going into the thrift store “hoping to find something cool.”
An independent antique and vintage dealer, she told the BBC she went into the thrift store "hoping to find something cool".
On closer examination in the sunlight, the bust looked like it could be "really, really old", she said. She did a quick Google search for Roman marble busts and thought they looked similar. -BBC
It looked “really, really old” said Laura Young, who snapped a picture of the Roman bust sitting in the passenger seat of her car after the purchase.
“I’m not even sure how it’s possible to put a meaningful monetary value on something that has such an important history, but on the other hand could never, ever be sold,” Lynley McAlpine from the San Antonio Museum of Art told the BBC.
The bust may represent Roman military leader Sextus Pompey, who fought against Julius Caesar.
An attempt to trace its origin revealed that the bust was linked to a replica Roman Villa in Germany which exhibited legitimate artifacts next to replicas.
The Pompejanum in the Bavarian town of Aschaffenburg was built in the 1840s and had been severely damaged by Allied bombing during World War Two. How the bust got from Aschaffenburg to Austin is unclear, but it seems probable that an American soldier took the statue to the US. American troops were stationed in Aschaffenburg until the end of the Cold War. And because it was probably an item looted during war time, Ms Young could not think about selling it as an antique. -BBC
Young has loaned the bust to the San Antonio Museum of Art, after which it will eventually return to Bavaria where it will sit in the Pompejanum. While negotiations were underway, she kept the bust in her living room.
“He looked very nice. And he was just there staring at us for three plus years,” she said.
Soul Train Line Dance to Jungle Boogie (1973)
I hope that you all enjoy this glimpse into the past…
Europe´s mad ban on Russian oil
By Jorge Vilches for the Saker Blog
Ursula von der Leyen
Cognitive scientists would concur in that the current performance of European leadership could be diagnosed as either myopic ignorance or — most probably — full intellectual blindness. In the case of so far happy-go-lucky Ursula von der Leyen there is no doubt it´d be the latter… but only if we first dismiss her warm on-the-record support for Bundeswehr colonial policies and military involvement… plus her praise of Third Reich famous general Field Marshall Erwin Rommel, Commander of the Führer Headquarters. But leaving that possible Nazi whiff aside, full ´intellectual blockage´ is the only kind way to dare explain a most strategic project as foolish and doomed to fail as banning Russian oil sales worldwide. Why so you may ask ?
Ref #1 Article
asymmetrical retaliation
The short answer is massive — ´Russian´ massive – unmitigated “asymmetrical non-military retaliation” through surgical and divisive optional sales of natural gas – and other key commodities – just leaving EU sanctioned Russian oil for sale to and re-sale by third parties. And, oh yes, weaponization is not limited to any particular means as various European war schools should have internalized already. War means war and pretty much anything is fair game. But apparently, it´d be as if through the centuries, uppity European leaders – most especially German, French, Swedish, British and Poles — have not learned a single thing despite the über-high costs already paid for by their nations large-caliber warfare experiences most especially with Russia. By the way, the UK also has the additional ( unsolvable? ) burden of its current Brexit ballast…
Ref # 2 Article
Ursula´s softball
May I call you Ursula ? Thank you. “We will make sure that we phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion [… a phenomenal bad joke of sorts… ] in a way that allows us and our partners to secure alternative supply routes and minimises the impact on global markets” you said. Question: will the Russians just idly watch you trying to execute such enormity at the EU´s preferred speed and political and geopolitical sequencing? And the Russians would never dare to strike back with natural gas or other restrictions no? For starters, what about nickel, uranium, and lithium? Not having them would be like trying to prepare tasty food without salt, pepper or mustard. Without uranium no nuclear power is possible, did you know? [ more on that later ]. Ursula, your pink unicorn wishful thinking is unfathomable gal.
EU kelpers
This mad-ban requires EU approval with conditional support from Hungary, Greece, and others. So some special EU members will be exempted while regular EU ´kelpers´ will not. Now could that lead to serious friction ? How many years will it take all of Europe to reconvert its industry and supply chains? “This is why we will phase out Russian supply of crude oil within 6 months and refined products by the end of the year.” Okay, so Aunty Ursie you believe the Russians are dumb enough to let you phase this idea out nice and easy at your own pace and whenever you decide to act per your own special EU schedule. No market dynamics involved as Europe plays everybody else´s pieces too as grandpas would do with 3-year-old grandkids.
Ref # 3 Article
Russian DNA
No way Ursula, the Russians play world-class professional chess while you play elementary school checkers, not even being good at that either. The instant Russia perceives the initial execution of your game plan regarding banning of Russian oil, they´ll make their moves, not yours. And those Russian moves will not be nice and pretty. For one, Europe will not have anywhere nearly ready its own diesel refining capacity by the end of 2022 while the middle distillate market is ever much tighter everywhere as demand recovers from the Covid pandemic. So the EU “plan” is
to frantically search for hard-to-find or simply non-existent substitutes while investing tons of time, money, effort and risk. Well, the Russians know that already even before you start. Diesel is already in critically short supply in the EU.
Furthermore, Europe will continue buying Russian oil and distillates via third countries once it introduces any embargo only that at much higher prices than today. Such old, quick and dirty business is known as “triangulation” Ursula.
Russian hardball
The existential threat imposed on Russia by the EU with its macabre “Ukraine Plan” and sanctions has not left Russia any way out other than playing hardball for keeps. Furthermore, the Russian non-military retaliation domain is actually unlimited due to the full-scale and open-ended addiction that Europe has developed for Russian imports of different sorts including commodities of any and every imaginable type. Without such, Europe will cease to exist as we know it in a matter of a very few months, if not weeks. As Francis Fukuyama should posit, Europe´s dependency on Russian commodities is the end of its own history. The unipolar world is dying, admit it Frank. Hint: write a new book guy.
Ref # 4 Article
Ref # 5 Article
not your dog
It seems that Ursula von der Leyden has convinced the EU that feeding a refinery or a chemical plant is pretty much like feeding your dog. But nothing can be further from the truth. Chemical plants and refineries are very closely matched and subtly calibrated to very specific supply feeds very difficult to substitute. Changes can and have been made, but it requires lots of time, effort, money, dedicated facilities, experimentation, specific expertise, risk, and most important fixed, unchanging feeds always complying with specs. This means that Russia today supplies Europe with exclusive unreplaceable oil & gas grades of very specific chemical content (even coal grades) that would be impossible to get from third parties fast enough and cheap enough. So it´s a very delicate and tight matching already achieved between European facilities and Russian fuels and other inputs that cannot be altered or replaced that easily, let alone all at the same time !! Are EU countries aware of all this ?
Ref #6 Article
expensive divorce
So maybe after investing years, money, expertise, trials & errors, risk and lots of hard work Europe may possibly and eventually be able to partially switch from current to dirtier or far more inefficient options. But that would be (a) against the EU´s Green Deal compliance and (b) a very short-term non-sustainable “solution” (c) against the whole world.
So how can Europe transition to a 0% Russian supplies end-point as swiftly and safely as Chinese plate spinners?
Ref # 7 Article
No minimally informed no-nonsense mindset has thought out the foolish idea of coordinating the whole European continent in this self-destructive mission. Taking matters to an extreme, let´s assume that Europe completely weans itself – or is cut off — from Russian oil & gas imports tomorrow morning and everything else sourced in Russia. In that hypothetical case, Moscow may feel the financial problem possibly within 6 months… or maybe never. But if such event were to happen, the timing would be quite different as the EU would necessarily start imploding in 6 days and would achieve full implosion in 6 weeks. With the oil mad-ban Europe would badly need to find substitutes for Russian imports. The problem is such need cannot ever be satisfied fast enough and right enough no matter how it is diced or sliced. Triangulation means Europe will buy quality Russian imports via third countries only that at much higher prices
plug & play (not)
No, it is not anywhere near “plug & play” either. No. Several EU landlocked countries can only import nat-gas thru existing Russian pipeline unless a nightmarish and highly risky sea-land supply lines are established by different means going across complicated mountain ranges sometimes, a project which no one wants to entertain. Replacing Russian feeds & supply lines is an incommensurable task that Russia will not help out with either. Once Russia withstands the “ban Russian oil” idea, Europe will find itself in the worse of both worlds not being able to rewind back.
tit-for-tat ?
Also, the impact of the Russian reaction may most probably result to be disproportionate to the damage inflicted by an EU worldwide ban on Russian oil. Hence, ´asymmetrical´, simply because an exact ´tit-for-tat´ result is impossible to calculate for and let alone effectively achieve. If ever implemented, the unintended consequences of a haphazard decision such as proposed will necessarily mean for the EU either to (1) instantly back-pedal to square one or (2) finally suicidal Europe would follow through and achieve its goal. I kid you not. Other commodities could be included.
human food
And food for thought, as Europe would face famine in-its-face if grains from Ukraine, Belarus, Russia and elsewhere are tied up or absent by Russian retaliation or impossibility to deliver. And the lack of cheap diesel and natural gas from Russia means that farmers everywhere face sharply increased costs, whereby fertilizer is either not available at all, or too expensive to use, and thus crop yields will fall worldwide increasing the price of food products. Greenhouse producers in many parts of Europe have already shut down over high energy costs as prices stand today, not even thinking of the possibility of having Russian oil banned worldwide. Banning Russian oil from Europe can only back-fire.
Ref # 8 Article
Russian leverage
It´s impossible to approach all aspects involved at once, so let´s briefly touch upon part of Russia´s bargaining power.
- Russia does not want, let alone need, to defeat all of Europe. Just turning Germany — or Poland for that matter — into a messy mess would be more than enough for the whole EU to focus and reason out basic stuff.
- No uranium from Russia means the 3 remaining German nuclear power stations cannot be re-commissioned. Not having already scheduled substitute delivery of finely-tuned Russian uranium means an adaptive retro-fit with newly-sourced feed, which technically is risky and mission almost impossible which would take years.
- China + India + Brazil have ´free-patent-IP´ investments plans in Russia kicking off an entirely new ball game
- 60% of German gas consumption is Russian. Today German industry would not survive without Russian gas.
- A partial or total reduction of Russian nat-gas and coal supply in retaliation for banning Russian oil would negatively and instantly impact Europe in many ways and the rest of the world with irregular market dynamics.
- If not delivered to the EU, the Russian nat-gas can be vented or flared at well-heads as there is plenty more.
- Russian oil can be sold elsewhere and/or stockpiled relatively rapidly and easily, or production can be slowed down without damaging reservoirs or wells. Russia will actually increase its “drill baby drill” policy.
- Paraphrasing former US Secretary of Treasury John Connally “Sorry, Russian commodities, your problem”
- Russia´s market is 85% of the world population largely under growth and just as fed up with the US-dollar reserve currency system. The EU trade embargo on Russia does not work per parallel imports from 3rd parties
- The defiant Russian economy is doing just fine, the Ruble is as strong as ever. US President Biden vowed “to make sure the pain of our sanctions hits the Russian economy, not ours” as if he were getting the picture…
- China and others definitely back Russia while the rest of the world de-dollarizes and does not sanction Russia
- There are $ 500 billion worth of physical Western assets in Russia that can be confiscated at any time.
Ref # 9 Article
Ref # 10 Article
Ref # 11 Article
Ref # 12 Article
Ref # 13 Article
Ref # 14 Article
eyes wide shut
Agreed, it´s a multi-variable environment in a context of constant change with plenty of moving parts interacting on each other. But, for starters, no ( or less) Russian nat-gas and no Russian oil means many unsolvable things for the EU today. We´d also need to add the impact of having no oil, coal, or gas substitutes fast enough in large enough quantities. All of that put together means no (or less) refined products, no intermediate distillates, no heavy-duty machinery (think mining) no nickel nor aluminum, cobalt or lead or magnesium, no neon, no grains or edibles at large, wheat, corn, barley, rye, soybeans, timber, paper, titanium, rocket engines, nitrogen fertilizer, crop nutrients, potash, less petrochemicals, iron ore, minerals and rare-earths, uranium for nuclear power plants, lithium for batteries, no inputs for production of metals, plastics, fabrics, pharmaceuticals, fertilizer, chemicals, etc., no manganese, chromium, platinum, essential palladium for catalytic converters, copper, tin, mica, wolfram, bismuth, kaolin, talcum, tungsten, diamonds, phosphates, sulphur… and even no gold. By the way, as we should all know, none of these can be printed.
Russian vacations
By the way, fewer distillates such as diesel and fuel oil means that private and public transportation and freight would slow down lots, also affecting heavy-duty vehicles, industrial machinery, and airplane travel. Also far lower tourism. So might as well shut down the EU and go away on vacation to beautiful Russia right? You won´t find that much food or heating or A/C either, just new massive unheard of migrations all around you. With less Russian imports, very huge German industrial giants run the certainly serious risk of shutting down otherwise continuous year-round processes which cannot be re-started and would mean irreparable harm & negative impact on the German economy and the rest of the world. And it’s not only Russian produce that would be missing. Also from Belarus and Ukraine itself + the Stans
mission impossible
Only mediocre light-brained European leadership can propose such suicidal move 100% guaranteed to blowback in-their-face much harder and faster than their original strike. It´d be like poking a bear ( sound familiar ? ) with a sharply pointed pole and pretending the beast to continue munching fish unbothered by the aggression itself and the presence of the aggressor, both. Not even young unexperienced teen-aged urban Canadians would think of doing such a thing. Of course, they would know that the bear will necessarily focus attention first ( already done that… ) then would rise on his hind legs and swing his sharp deadly paw wide and fast sooner than the EU can react to what just happened.
It isn´t European David vs. Russian Goliath either. It´s a well-fed and rested Russian Goliath with hypersonic weapons under his arm vs. a worn-out underweight European David with a worn-down sling and lots of very small stones…
to “Schwedt” or not to “Schwedt”
Schwedt is a key refinery for which the German government better find fast good & reliable sources of substitute Russian oil. If Schwedt does not deliver as usual, problems will be felt throughout Germany, Poland, and elsewhere.
But one problem is that Schwedt is majority-owned by Rosneft, the Russian state oil company which has control.
Now supposedly Schwedt has already dramatically reduced its dependence on Russian oil. But there´s a rub.
data laundromat
The rub is that EU member countries are very good at data laundering practices since inception of EU membership acceptance proceedings. Don´t trust me, ask Goldman Sachs they should know. So, for example, if imported Russian oil stays stationary in an EU depot for a couple of months it is “nationalized” and it is no longer considered to be ´Russian´. Also, the official oil inflow figures cheat, as for partial mixtures of Russian oil 45%+ 55% ´oil from somewhere else´ it is considered to be non-Russian, see? So Russian oil import substitution is a topic not yet anywhere close to being solved. And if Russian oil is banned right here, well Russians might deny delivery of either Russian oil or Russian gas – or whatever — over there. They defend their interests, not the EU´s.
Ref # 15 Article
Ref # 16 Article
two to tango
Which brings us to the fact that the EU cannot dream of moving its pieces in a vacuum as if the Russian enemy were not there also playing in the same theater scenarios and moving its pieces alternatively. The instant the EU makes any headway whatsoever regarding the possible banning of Russian oil, then Russia will respond in kind or possibly before so as to carry out a pre-emptive deterrence sort of like a taste of things to come such as in Poland and Bulgaria
“We have every right to take a matching decision and impose an embargo on gas pumping through the [existing] Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. So firstly, Russia may reduce or cut off its gas exports if the West goes ahead with a ban on Russian oil”. Understand? The EU attacks Russian oil and Russia counter-attacks reducing or cutting off Russian natural gas, etc. In other words, asymmetric non-military retaliation.
Ref # 17 Article
Prices
If the Russian oil ban attempt goes ahead, agreed that the first thing that Russia may do is reduce or cut off nat-gas supplies – or other key commodities — with the stroke of a keyboard.. And it would be impossible to find replacements for Russian oils fast enough also. It would take years of adaptation and readjustments and it will still be much more expensive for European consumers. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak left on record that a “rejection of Russian oil would lead to catastrophic consequences for the global market causing oil prices to more than double to $300 a barrel”…possibly up to $ 500 pundits say assertively in specialized blogs. Be it $300 or $500 does the EU actually want that ? And Russia would end up earning much more by exporting far less. Trust US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, she said it, not me. And the higher the price, the higher the inflationary pressure and the higher the prices at the supermarkets already at approx. 35% p.a.. I can´t believe having to explain all this, really…
Ref # 18 Article
Despite sanctions, Russia has almost doubled its monthly earnings from selling fossil fuels to the EU, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The EU has imported about $23 billion dollars of fossil fuels per month from Russia since March 2022 as oil and gas prices have soared, compared with an average of about $ 12 billion in 2021. Meanwhile, transfers of oil between tankers have surged as buyers take advantage of discounted Russian crude. Different crude blends shipped from Russia may also contain oil from elsewhere which would also be affected.
logistics & freight
Banning Russian oil also means a logistics major reversal from-East-to-West to from-South-to-North. Such cardinal change is costly and risky. New shipping freighters are unprepared for unknown delivery schedules and product specs. Ports and oceans are different, shipping lanes are different, climate is different, seasonal availability of product and ship size and type are also different. That also involves lots of negotiating time, coordination, money, expertise, risk, permanent costs, and new dependencies with yet unknown trade and business partners, new modus operandi, brokers, insurance companies, etc. That is why every EU government has failed to build a realistic energy strategy that does not depend on Russia. Continuity, LNG & LPG terminal bottlenecks, and processing, availability, cost, no weather restrictions when needed. Pipe delivery is safe, dependable, and cheap, sea freight is risky and cost-prohibitive
nuclear blues
Germany had 15 nuclear plants in operation. The last 3 operating nuclear plants in Germany were scheduled to be decommissioned permanently in 2022. Part of the “Green Agenda” in the EU is to eliminate nuclear plants. France does not approve this, but is having technical trouble with its nuclear plants. France has said it will shut down 50% of its nuclear plants for critical maintenance this year at the worst possible timing imaginable.
Ref # 19 Article
military impact
No readily available fuels of the right type (careful) mean no deployment no planes or other aircraft which means pretty much being stuck. Bad logistics, less food, no (or less) supplies, no heating to speak of. The European conventional military dependence on Russian fuels is beyond overwhelming, close to checkmate. Fuel imports are not anywhere near a military solution, just a way for civilians to survive if and when available and at a terribly high price.
“So the EU better be prepared to continue paying (many) billions of euros each week to Russia, supporting the Ruble and subsidizing its military in the process. It’s not just a short-term problem, either. If Germany manages over time (many years ?) to find adequate replacements for Russian natural gas, oil and coal, it will be at (tremendously) much higher prices. The era of cheap-Russian natural gas fueling the German economy is over. German energy-intensive companies, like its chemical giants, could not compete in the global market. Germany will face painful choices about the future of its industrial economy”. So without very specific and unreplaceable exclusive Russian grades of natural gas and oil and coal the European military are pretty much game-over.
Ref # 20 Article
unmanageable world finances
The camel is 990% overloaded and this one foolish decision may break its back. The world already rides on a wild $ 600+ trillion of a derivatives tiger that can only survive provided the corresponding counterparties do not fail.
“ Clearly, central banks in conjunction with their governments will have no option but to rescue their entire financial systems, which involves yet more central bank credit being provided on even greater scales than seen over Covid, supply chain chaos, and the provision of credit to pay for higher food and energy prices. It must be unlimited.”
Ref # 21 Article
So unless something dramatically favorable happens very soon, economic-financial considerations will have highly negative socio-political impact driving the crisis to a high-pitch climax with the pitchforks roaming about European streets. Per Rabobank: “ When the ´food system´ breaks down, everything will break down with it”.
Per The Guardian, “…Come October, it’s going to get horrific, truly horrific … a scale beyond what we can deal with”.
Europe´s mad ban on Russian oil is just another perfect example of sheer Anglo-Saxon European puppeteering.
Ref # 22 Article
Ref # 23 Article
Chaka Khan and Rufus – Tell me something Good (RE-MASTERED) Official Video HD
I pray… look at her! She’s got such a wonderful smile. Ugh!
Baked Ham with Brown Sugar-Orange Glaze
Makers like you know that simple ingredients can create the most delicious dishes. Our brown sugar, orange juice ham glaze is the perfect example with just 4 ingredients needed to make an orange glaze for ham. While the ham roasts uncovered, create the glaze using brown sugar, orange juice, ground mustard and grated orange peel. Brush it over the ham during the last 45 minutes of baking for a sweet, zingy and just-right tangy flavor.
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Ingredients
- 6-lb fully cooked smoked bone-in ham
- 1/2 cup packed brown sugar
- 2 tablespoons orange or pineapple juice
- 1 tablespoon ground mustard
- 1 teaspoon grated orange peel
Steps
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1Heat oven to 325°F. On rack in shallow roasting pan, place ham. Insert meat thermometer in thickest part of ham. Bake uncovered 1 hour 30 minutes or until thermometer reads 135°F to 140°F.
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2Meanwhile, in small bowl, mix remaining ingredients. Brush glaze over ham during last 45 minutes of baking.
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3Remove ham from oven; cover with tent of foil and let stand 10 to 15 minutes for easier carving.
Trailer Park Boys – The Kittyman Sea Shanty
And let’s leave on this lite note…
Do you want more?
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New Beginnings 4.
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It looks like Finland is taking the locomotive to hell by actually sending in an application to join NATO. Both the president and prime minister advocated today in a joint statement for joining NATO.
(Note the lack of justification of their assumption that this move will increase security in the Baltic region. Politicians don’t have to justify anything anymore least ask the population what they think. The referendum was simply scrapped because support of this decision is so obviously high…)
It will probably be a certainty on Monday.
Now that doesn’t mean the application will be accepted by all NATO member states.
The Croatian president stated he will be vetoing Finland and Sweden’s application.
All NATO members have to accept the application for it to be ratified.
On the other hand Russia might treat Finland and Sweden’s intent of joining NATO as reason enough to prepare counter measures.
People here still think it is WWII and the Russians will send in their foot soldiers and tanks. I for my part will stay far away from any big cities. And I would not be surprised if Northern Karelia once again belongs to Russia in the near future. Let’s see how good the Duolingo course for Russian is…
Finland and Sweden are watching the Titanic sink, and they yell to the Captain; “can I join you”?
Now that the Western cow has been thoroughly milked by the central bankers, it’s time to slaughter it and feast on the corpse.
This is all going to plan. There’s no stupidity or incompetence involved.
The US will attempt to draft all able bodied men to fight the war with Russia that they started. This will start a civil war. That’s their plan.
“…If Clean Energy Didn’t Need Key Metals Resources”Not only that, the whole concept of renewable energy from wind and solar is based on the use of gas-fired power plants that can be ramped up quickly when there is no wind or no sun. Switching from cheap Russian gas to American LNG or importing gas from the Netherlands or Norway is very expensive. So Germany, which is leading the energy transition in the EU, will lose its industry to countries with cheaper energy and thus become a third world country.
Hello MM,
The behavior of Germany, and other Euro contries
have always struck me lopsided, exploitative, unfair, and
dictatorial to their fellow members. Actually, the Euro
nations are a mini-lite NWO. The un-elected actual rulers/
powers are feeding, free wheeling, calling the shots. They
get highly compensated, and apparently do not contribute
to the tax burden. Rather than thank Russia for the products
they have fairly sold, they make groundless threats/virtue
signal/create their own demise. I am sick of their pasty
reasoning. The behavior is stone stupid or fatalistic.
I live in a system that may even be demonic in the efforts
to lie, steal, and cheat other weaker nations. Now they are
spreading poison all over the place (they had done) including
the USA population after squeezing the people dry. I think I am
in a foul mood…where are the brains working for the good
outcomes? We are overloaded with stupid, dense, and bad will.
Thank you for the music and the ham recipe/looks great!
You do know to contrast, and you do reveal what we all need
to understand.