Collapse Versus Crisis

An economic crisis is not the same as an economic collapse. As painful as it was, the 2008 financial crisis was not a collapse. Millions of people lost jobs and homes, but basic services were still provided.

Other past financial crises seemed like a collapse at the time, but are barely remembered now.

1970s Stagflation

The OPEC oil embargo and President Richard Nixon’s abolishment of the gold standard triggered double-digit inflation. The government responded to this economic downturn by freezing wages and labor rates to curb inflation.7 The result was a high unemployment rate. Businesses, hampered by low prices, could not afford to keep workers at unprofitable wage rates.

1981 Recession

The Fed raised interest rates in a bid to end double-digit inflation.

That created the worst recession since the Great Depression. President Ronald Reagan cut taxes and increased government spending to end it.

1989 Savings and Loan Crisis

One thousand banks closed after improper real estate investments turned sour. Charles Keating and other Savings & Loan bankers had mis-used bank depositor’s funds. The consequent recession triggered an unemployment rate as high as 7.5%. The government was forced to bail out some banks to the tune of $124 billion.

Post-9/11 Recession

The terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 sowed nationwide apprehension and prolonged the 2001 recession—and unemployment of greater than 10%—through 2003. The United States’ response, the War on Terror, has cost the nation $6.4 trillion, and counting.

2008 Financial Crisis

The early warning signs of the 2008 Financial Crisis were rapidly falling housing prices and increasing mortgage defaults in 2006. Left untended, the resulting subprime mortgage crisis, which panicked investors and led to massive bank withdrawals, spread like wildfire across the financial community. The U.S. government had no choice but to bail out “too big to fail” banks and insurance companies, like Bear Stearns and AIG, or face both national and global financial catastrophes.

2020 Recession

It is too soon to tally up the total costs of the 2020 global health crisisCoronavirus pandemic—the crisis is still ongoing. Already we have seen worldwide supply-chain interruptions, heightened volatility and steep losses in financial markets, and sharp slowdowns in the travel and hospitality industries.

How much economic cost should we expect? According to the United Nations’ Conference on Trade and Development, the global economic hit could reduce global growth rates to 0.5% and cost the global economy as much as $2 trillion for 2020.

So what is going to happen?

I am not really all that good in predicting future events. You know, it’s all a very personal event that lies upon your world-line template. But regardless as to what your template map looks like we can make a couple of basic and reasonable statements…

• America is deep, deep in debt.
• There are no efforts to control this debt, or slow down spending.
• This is not sustainable.

Since it is not sustainable, there will come a time when this kind of behavior will end. It might be gradual, or sudden. But it will have to end.

How the nation handles this change in economic policy will depend on may, many factors. Knowing human nature, humans do not like change, and those accustomed to doing things a certain way will have a difficult time adapting.

Gradual Change

If the change is gradual, and those managing the economy are talented, capable and willing…

… the United States economy can contract in a very controlled implosion, will little radical change, and managed in such as way that the United States might experience a simple minor recession.

Significantly, in 2008, the U.S. National Intelligence Council admitted for the first time that America's global power was indeed on a declining trajectory. In one of its periodic futuristic reports, Global Trends 2025, the Council cited "the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way, roughly from West to East" and "without precedent in modern history," as the primary factor in the decline of the "United States' relative strength -- even in the military realm." 

Like many in Washington, however, the Council’s analysts anticipated a very long, very soft landing for American global preeminence, and harbored the hope that somehow...

... the U.S. would long "retain unique military capabilities… to project military power globally" for decades to come.

Sure…

What ever you say.

Wrapped in imperial hubris, like Whitehall or Quai d'Orsay before it, the White House still seems to imagine that American decline will be gradual, gentle, and partial. In his State of the Union address last January, President Obama offered the reassurance that "I do not accept second place for the United States of America." 

A few days later, Vice President Biden ridiculed the very idea that "we are destined to fulfill [historian Paul] Kennedy's prophecy that we are going to be a great nation that has failed because we lost control of our economy and overextended." 

Similarly, writing in the November issue of the establishment journal Foreign Affairs, neo-liberal foreign policy guru Joseph Nye waved away talk of China's economic and military rise, dismissing "misleading metaphors of organic decline" and denying that any deterioration in U.S. global power was underway.

Ordinary Americans, watching their jobs head overseas, have a more realistic view than their cosseted leaders. An opinion poll in August 2010 found that 65 percent of Americans believed the country was now "in a state of decline."  Already, Australia and Turkey, traditional U.S. military allies, are using their American-manufactured weapons for joint air and naval maneuvers with China. 

Already, America's closest economic partners are backing away from Washington's opposition to China's rigged currency rates. As the president flew back from his Asian tour last month, a gloomy New York Times headline  summed the moment up this way: "Obama's Economic View Is Rejected on World Stage, China, Britain and Germany Challenge U.S., Trade Talks With Seoul Fail, Too."

-Salon 2010

Sudden Change

If those in Washington DC, have been living in isolation bubbles, echo chambers, and have selfish, self-interests at heart rather than what is good for the nation, it is highly likely that there could be a very sudden change. Perhaps one that reaches the limits  and boundaries of a catastrophe.

There are far too many variables involved to make accurate predictions. But that doesn’t stop people. And you can find these predictions all over the internet.

• Data Shows the US Economy Was Collapsing 5 Months …
• No End to Devastating US Economic Collapse
• The US is facing a dollar collapse by the end of 2021
• The Coming Economic Collapse of 2021 and How to Benefit
• 10 Reasons the U.S. Economy Won’t Collapse
• How America will collapse (by 2025)
• How to Survive an Economic Collapse 2021 – SHTF Blog

But what will actually happen?

No one knows.

The Elites have their ideas…

Here’s a ten year old article from Salon, and they pretty much nailed it in regards to what is going on. If anything, they were too optimistic.

From Salon 2010…

Viewed historically, the question is not whether the United States will lose its unchallenged global power, but just how precipitous and wrenching the decline will be.

In place of Washington’s wishful thinking, let’s use the National Intelligence Council’s own futuristic methodology.

Here we suggest four realistic scenarios for how, whether with a bang or a whimper, U.S. global power could reach its end in the 2020s (along with four accompanying assessments of just where we are today).

The future scenarios include:

• Economic decline,
• Oil shock,
• Military misadventure, and…
• World War III.

While these are hardly the only possibilities when it comes to American decline or even collapse, they offer a window into an onrushing future.

Economic Decline: Scenario 2020

After years of swelling deficits fed by incessant warfare in distant lands, in 2020, as long expected, the U.S. dollar finally loses its special status as the world’s reserve currency.

Hasn't happened... yet. But that is currently in process.

For many reasons, the Chinese authorities will probably someday stop pegging the yuan to a basket of currencies, and shift to a modern inflation-targeting regime under which they allow the exchange rate to fluctuate much more freely, especially against the dollar.

When that happens, expect most of Asia to follow China. In due time, the dollar, currently the anchor currency for roughly two-thirds of world GDP, could lose nearly half its weight.

Considering how much the United States relies on the dollar’s special status – or what then-French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing famously called America’s “exorbitant privilege” – to fund massive public and private borrowing, the impact of such a shift could be significant.

Suddenly, the cost of imports soars.

This did happen. From the "Trump Tariffs" of 25%, to the costs of shipping in 2021, importing products into the United States is factually much more costly than before.

Unable to pay for swelling deficits by selling now-devalued Treasury notes abroad, Washington is finally forced to slash its bloated military budget. Under pressure at home and abroad, Washington slowly pulls U.S. forces back from hundreds of overseas bases to a continental perimeter. By now, however, it is far too late.

Did not happen. The United States military instead got much larger.

Faced with a fading superpower incapable of paying the bills, China, India, Iran, Russia, and other powers, great and regional, provocatively challenge U.S. dominion over the oceans, space, and cyberspace.

True, and in process.

Meanwhile, amid soaring prices, ever-rising unemployment, and a continuing decline in real wages, domestic divisions widen into violent clashes and divisive debates, often over remarkably irrelevant issues.

True and in process.

Riding a political tide of disillusionment and despair, a far-right patriot captures the presidency with thundering rhetoric, demanding respect for American authority and threatening military retaliation or economic reprisal.

Good call. Donald Trump became President, and Biden continues his neocon ambitions.

The world pays next to no attention as the American Century ends in silence.

Oh, the world is paying attention. It's just that America is viewed as a declining and unstable nation.

Oil Shock: Scenario 2025

The United States remains so dependent upon foreign oil that a few adverse developments in the global energy market in 2025 spark an oil shock.

By comparison, it makes the 1973 oil shock (when prices quadrupled in just months) look like the proverbial molehill.

Angered at the dollar’s plummeting value, OPEC oil ministers, meeting in Riyadh, demand future energy payments in a “basket” of Yen, Yuan, and Euros.

This is in process.

That only hikes the cost of U.S. oil imports further.

At the same moment, while signing a new series of long-term delivery contracts with China, the Saudis stabilize their own foreign exchange reserves by switching to the Yuan.

In process.

Meanwhile, China pours countless billions into building a massive trans-Asia pipeline and funding Iran’s exploitation of the world largest percent natural gas field at South Pars in the Persian Gulf.

In process.

Concerned that the U.S. Navy might no longer be able to protect the oil tankers traveling from the Persian Gulf to fuel East Asia, a coalition of Tehran, Riyadh, and Abu Dhabi form an unexpected new Gulf alliance and affirm that China’s new fleet of swift aircraft carriers will henceforth patrol the Persian Gulf from a base on the Gulf of Oman.

Not happened, and there are no plans for this. What is happening is that China and Iran, with Russia have formed a joint military block.

Under heavy economic pressure, London agrees to cancel the U.S. lease on its Indian Ocean island base of Diego Garcia, while Canberra, pressured by the Chinese, informs Washington that the Seventh Fleet is no longer welcome to use Fremantle as a homeport, effectively evicting the U.S. Navy from the Indian Ocean.

Did not happen. In fact, the United States is pushing for even stronger military presence, and few other nations are enthusiastic about joining the QUAD.

With just a few strokes of the pen and some terse announcements, the “Carter Doctrine,” by which U.S. military power was to eternally protect the Persian Gulf, is laid to rest in 2025. All the elements that long assured the United States limitless supplies of low-cost oil from that region — logistics, exchange rates, and naval power — evaporate. At this point, the U.S. can still cover only an insignificant 12 percent of its energy needs from its nascent alternative energy industry, and remains dependent on imported oil for half of its energy consumption.

Did not happen. Instead, the USA is heavily involved militarily in the entire Middle East region.

The oil shock that follows hits the country like a hurricane, sending prices to startling heights, making travel a staggeringly expensive proposition, putting real wages (which had long been declining) into freefall, and rendering non-competitive whatever American exports remained.

Not happened yet, but 2025 is still four years away.

With thermostats dropping, gas prices climbing through the roof, and dollars flowing overseas in return for costly oil, the American economy is paralyzed. With long-fraying alliances at an end and fiscal pressures mounting, U.S. military forces finally begin a staged withdrawal from their overseas bases.

I would highly doubt it. If anything the last few years has been a nearly insane level of pro-military anti-China, anti-Russia and anti-Iran war-mongering.

Within a few years, the U.S. is functionally bankrupt and the clock is ticking toward midnight on the American Century.

Military Misadventure: Scenario 2014

Counterintuitively, as their power wanes, empires often plunge into ill-advised military misadventures. This phenomenon is known among historians of empire as “micro-militarism” and seems to involve psychologically compensatory efforts to salve the sting of retreat or defeat by occupying new territories, however briefly and catastrophically.

These operations, irrational even from an imperial point of view, often yield hemorrhaging expenditures or humiliating defeats that only accelerate the loss of power.

Embattled empires through the ages suffer an arrogance that drives them to plunge ever deeper into military misadventures until defeat becomes debacle.

• In 413 BCE, a weakened Athens sent 200 ships to be slaughtered in Sicily.
• In 1921, a dying imperial Spain dispatched 20,000 soldiers to be massacred by Berber guerrillas in Morocco.
• In 1956, a fading British Empire destroyed its prestige by attacking Suez.
• And in 2001 and 2003, the U.S. occupied Afghanistan and invaded Iraq.

With the hubris that marks empires over the millennia, Washington has increased its troops in Afghanistan to 100,000, expanded the war into Pakistan, and extended its commitment to 2014 and beyond, courting disasters large and small in this guerilla-infested, nuclear-armed graveyard of empires.

So irrational, so unpredictable is “micro-militarism” that seemingly fanciful scenarios are soon outdone by actual events. With the U.S. military stretched thin from Somalia to the Philippines and tensions rising in Israel, Iran, and Korea, possible combinations for a disastrous military crisis abroad are multifold.

Washington makes its move, sending in Special Operations forces to seize oil ports in the Persian Gulf. This, in turn, sparks a rash of suicide attacks and the sabotage of pipelines and oil wells. As black clouds billow skyward and diplomats rise at the U.N. to bitterly denounce American actions, commentators worldwide reach back into history to brand this “America’s Suez,” a telling reference to the 1956 debacle that marked the end of the British Empire.

Well things are going on. Most are not reported. There is the enormous Beirut explosion, as well as various other oil related military Mal-adventures.

World War III: Present Situation

In the summer of 2010, military tensions between the U.S. and China began to rise in the western Pacific, once considered an American “lake.” Even a year earlier no one would have predicted such a development. As Washington played upon its alliance with London to appropriate much of Britain’s global power after World War II, so China is now using the profits from its export trade with the U.S. to fund what is likely to become a military challenge to American dominion over the waterways of Asia and the Pacific.

With its growing resources, Beijing is claiming a vast maritime arc from Korea to Indonesia long dominated by the U.S. Navy.

In August, after Washington expressed a “national interest” in the South China Sea and conducted naval exercises there to reinforce that claim, Beijing’s official Global Times responded angrily, saying, “The U.S.-China wrestling match over the South China Sea issue has raised the stakes in deciding who the real future ruler of the planet will be.”

Amid growing tensions, the Pentagon reported that Beijing now holds “the capability to attack… [U.S.] aircraft carriers in the western Pacific Ocean” and target “nuclear forces throughout… the continental United States.” By developing “offensive nuclear, space, and cyber warfare capabilities,”

China seems determined to vie for dominance of what the Pentagon calls “the information spectrum in all dimensions of the modern battlespace.” With ongoing development of the powerful Long March V booster rocket, as well as the launch of two satellites in January 2010 and another in July, for a total of five, Beijing signaled that the country was making rapid strides toward an “independent” network of 35 satellites for global positioning, communications, and reconnaissance capabilities by 2020.

To check China and extend its military position globally, Washington is intent on building a new digital network of air and space robotics, advanced cyberwarfare capabilities, and electronic surveillance. Military planners expect this integrated system to envelop the Earth in a cyber-grid capable of blinding entire armies on the battlefield or taking out a single terrorist in field or favela.

By 2020, if all goes according to plan, the Pentagon will launch a three-tiered shield of space drones — reaching from stratosphere to exosphere, armed with agile missiles, linked by a resilient modular satellite system, and operated through total telescopic surveillance.

Last April, the Pentagon made history. It extended drone operations into the exosphere by quietly launching the X-37B unmanned space shuttle into a low orbit 255 miles above the planet.  The X-37B is the first in a new generation of unmanned vehicles that will mark the full weaponization of space, creating an arena for future warfare unlike anything that has gone before.

From 2008 through 2016, American military forces were training to invade islands in the South China Sea, and moneys were spent enlarging military bases in the Pacific.

From 2017 through 2020, it's been war. Mostly "hybrid", but there has been a major biological warfare effort involved against China with 7 strains attacking livestock, and three attacking people. All have failed.

Leaving and resulting a March 2021 Alaskan meeting where the USA told China to "roll over and die", or be destroyed. China responded back with "Fuck you".

World War III: Scenario 2025

The technology of space and cyberwarfare is so new and untested that even the most outlandish scenarios may soon be superseded by a reality still hard to conceive. If we simply employ the sort of scenarios that the Air Force itself used in its 2009 Future Capabilities Game, however, we can gain “a better understanding of how air, space and cyberspace overlap in warfare,” and so begin to imagine how the next world war might actually be fought.

It’s 11:59 p.m. on Thanksgiving Thursday in 2025. While cyber-shoppers pound the portals of Best Buy for deep discounts on the latest home electronics from China, U.S. Air Force technicians at the Space Surveillance Telescope (SST) on Maui choke on their coffee as their panoramic screens suddenly blip to black. Thousands of miles away at the U.S. CyberCommand’s operations center in Texas, cyberwarriors soon detect malicious binaries that, though fired anonymously, show the distinctive digital fingerprints of China’s People’s Liberation Army.

The first overt strike is one nobody predicted. Chinese “malware” seizes control of the robotics aboard an unmanned solar-powered U.S. “Vulture” drone as it flies at 70,000 feet over the Tsushima Strait between Korea and Japan. It suddenly fires all the rocket pods beneath its enormous 400-foot wingspan, sending dozens of lethal missiles plunging harmlessly into the Yellow Sea, effectively disarming this formidable weapon.

Determined to fight fire with fire, the White House authorizes a retaliatory strike. Confident that its F-6 “Fractionated, Free-Flying” satellite system is impenetrable, Air Force commanders in California transmit robotic codes to the flotilla of X-37B space drones orbiting 250 miles above the Earth, ordering them to launch their “Triple Terminator” missiles at China’s 35 satellites. Zero response. In near panic, the Air Force launches its Falcon Hypersonic Cruise Vehicle into an arc 100 miles above the Pacific Ocean and then, just 20 minutes later, sends the computer codes to fire missiles at seven Chinese satellites in nearby orbits. The launch codes are suddenly inoperative.

As the Chinese virus spreads uncontrollably through the F-6 satellite architecture, while those second-rate U.S. supercomputers fail to crack the malware’s devilishly complex code, GPS signals crucial to the navigation of U.S. ships and aircraft worldwide are compromised. Carrier fleets begin steaming in circles in the mid-Pacific. Fighter squadrons are grounded. Reaper drones fly aimlessly toward the horizon, crashing when their fuel is exhausted. Suddenly, the United States loses what the U.S. Air Force has long called “the ultimate high ground”: space. Within hours, the military power that had dominated the globe for nearly a century has been defeated in World War III without a single human casualty.

A New World Order?

Even if future events prove duller than these scenarios suggest, every significant trend points toward a far more striking decline in American global power by 2025 than anything Washington now seems to be envisioning.

As allies worldwide begin to realign their policies to take cognizance of rising Asian powers, the cost of maintaining 800 or more overseas military bases will simply become unsustainable…

… finally forcing a staged withdrawal on a still-unwilling Washington.

With both the U.S. and China in a race to weaponize space and cyberspace, tensions between the two powers are bound to rise, making military conflict by 2025 at least feasible, if hardly guaranteed.

Complicating matters even more, the economic, military, and technological trends outlined above will not operate in tidy isolation.

As happened to European empires after World War II, such negative forces will undoubtedly prove synergistic.

They will combine in thoroughly unexpected ways, create crises for which Americans are remarkably unprepared, and threaten to spin the economy into a sudden downward spiral, consigning this country to a generation or more of economic misery.

As U.S. power recedes, the past offers a spectrum of possibilities for a future world order.

At one end of this spectrum, the rise of a new global superpower, however unlikely, cannot be ruled out.

Yet both China and Russia evince self-referential cultures, recondite non-roman scripts, regional defense strategies, and underdeveloped legal systems, denying them key instruments for global dominion. At the moment then, no single superpower seems to be on the horizon likely to succeed the U.S.

Nonsense. As of 2021, Russia, China and Iran have combined for a unified Asia.

In a dark, dystopian version of our global future, a coalition of transnational corporations, multilateral forces like NATO, and an international financial elite could conceivably forge a single, possibly unstable, supra-national nexus that would make it no longer meaningful to speak of national empires at all.

As stated by an American inside of America over ten years ago. Such dated ignorance.

While denationalized corporations and multinational elites would assumedly rule such a world from secure urban enclaves, the multitudes would be relegated to urban and rural wastelands.

In “Planet of Slums,” Mike Davis offers at least a partial vision of such a world from the bottom up. He argues that the billion people already packed into fetid favela-style slums worldwide (rising to two billion by 2030) will make “the ‘feral, failed cities’ of the Third World… the distinctive battlespace of the twenty-first century.”

As darkness settles over some future super-favela, “the empire can deploy Orwellian technologies of repression” as “hornet-like helicopter gun-ships stalk enigmatic enemies in the narrow streets of the slum districts… Every morning the slums reply with suicide bombers and eloquent explosions.”

At a midpoint on the spectrum of possible futures, a new global oligopoly might emerge between 2020 and 2040, with rising powers China, Russia, India, and Brazil collaborating with receding powers like Britain, Germany, Japan, and the United States to enforce an ad hoc global dominion, akin to the loose alliance of European empires that ruled half of humanity circa 1900.

Another possibility: the rise of regional hegemons in a return to something reminiscent of the international system that operated before modern empires took shape.

In this neo-Westphalian world order, with its endless vistas of micro-violence and unchecked exploitation, each hegemon would dominate its immediate region — Brasilia in South America, Washington in North America, Pretoria in southern Africa, and so on. Space, cyberspace, and the maritime deeps, removed from the control of the former planetary “policeman,” the United States, might even become a new global commons, controlled through an expanded U.N. Security Council or some ad hoc body.

All of these scenarios extrapolate existing trends into the future on the assumption that Americans, blinded by the arrogance of decades of historically unparalleled power, cannot or will not take steps to manage the unchecked erosion of their global position.

If America’s decline is in fact on a 22-year trajectory from 2003 to 2025, then we have already frittered away most of the first decade of that decline with wars that distracted us from long-term problems and, like water tossed onto desert sands, wasted trillions of desperately needed dollars.

Duh. It's pretty fucking obvious.

If only 15 years remain, the odds of frittering them all away still remain high. Congress and the president are now in gridlock; the American system is flooded with corporate money meant to jam up the works; and there is little suggestion that any issues of significance, including our wars, our bloated national security state, our starved education system, and our antiquated energy supplies, will be addressed with sufficient seriousness to assure the sort of soft landing that might maximize our country’s role and prosperity in a changing world.

Yup. Forget about a "soft landing". The psychopaths in Washington DC will have none of that.

Europe’s empires are gone and America’s imperium is going.

It seems increasingly doubtful that the United States will have anything like Britain’s success in shaping a succeeding world order that protects its interests, preserves its prosperity, and bears the imprint of its best values.

This was written a decade ago in 2010.

The “knee jerk” reaction is for America to start a war.

Don’t.

China. Does. Not. Play.

The Oligarchy have their ideas…

Certainly the PTB, and the oligarchy skedaddled to their hidy-holes in remote areas of NZ, Canada, and Europe. So that tells me that the oligarchy believe that a collapse is imminent.

So, taking their lead and some common sense, we can take note and prepare…

How Do We Prepare for Economic Collapse?

From the SHTFblog…

Thankfully, history can give us some advice here.

As Ayn Rand points out throughout her books (particularly in Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal), it is production which is true wealth. The person who produces, whether that be food, shoes, holsters, or some other form of tangible good, is the one who holds true wealth. They’re adding something to society, creating something that others need or want.

In the same spirit, I would argue that the person who can provide a tangible service as well also has true wealth. An electrician who can provide light to a building, a plumber who can ensure personal hygiene is a diminished issue, and a doctor who can repair a wound are all examples of people who may not necessarily produce tangible goods (such as in the case of farmers, leatherworkers, and blacksmiths), but they still are able to produce a service that is both wanted and needed.

So, one of the first things that we can do to prepare ourselves for economic collapse is to become capable of producing.

This can be done in two primary ways: by the learning of a new skill or by getting into the business of producing merchandise.

Learning a New Skill

This is part of the reason that I went and became a locksmith. I have more than one job but wanted to have something of a backup plan perchance something should happen to my primary income. Tradesmen are both necessary and (typically) in short supply. Learning a concrete skill seemed to be something that would provide a fairly decent insurance policy should I need to fall back on something else. I’m glad I did, too. We’re a ‘key’ business.

Whether it be plumbing, carpentry, farrier work, or any other kind of trade for that matter, the point is that becoming proficient in a trade is to make yourself proficient in something that is likely to always be necessary. To look at a rather morbid example of such, we can analyze what the Germans did to the Jews throughout the Holocaust. Whether you are reading Schindler’s List, Maus, or The Man Who Broke into Auschwitz, you can see that it was the Jews who knew a trade such as metal polishing, mechanical work, or machining were (at least for a while) kept alive. (Of course, I’m by no means saying that pianists, teachers, and shopkeepers had no value.)

Learning to Produce Products

The second aspect would be investment in a particular merchandise. It involves producing products, starting a side business of some sort, perhaps. True, this often requires increasing one’s knowledge in a particular field, but there are some regions where it is simply the investment that allows a man to produce. As the saying goes, it takes money to make money.

This is where a shopkeeper would fit in. It is because such a man has invested capital into supplies that he is able to produce wealth for himself. Post-economic collapse though, which supplies will help one to produce wealth, however? Well, that leads me to the next topic: bartering.

Barter Society

I think that one of the first things that people need to realize when it comes to economic collapse is that things revert to a BARTER society. Look throughout history, and you’ll see that this is the case. The world doesn’t go to pot and a day later people are walking around and trading gold coins with one another. (I believe Joe Nobody illustrates this point rather well in his Holding Their Own series).

No, people start with trading goods and services for other needed/desired goods and services. Greece proved this with their recent economic collapse within the past five years or so. People traded eggs, milk, and meat for what they needed. I think it’s important to note that the farmer – a producer – was the one that was able to provide this for people as well. HE had true wealth throughout the collapse.

Again, in Venezuela we saw the same thing. People resorted to trading bananas for haircuts. The FIRST thing that becomes of value during an economic collapse is goods and services. True, there will be a very short window in which cash is king until people realize that the paper they have trusted all those years is now truly worthless in every sense of the word, but that window is short.

Barterable Goods and Services

So, after the brief cash window closes, after your world resorts to barter, the question becomes: “Okay, so what do I barter with? How do I get the things that my family needs?”

Regarding goods, I believe that the following is a good list to begin with. These are the things that people are going to need, and that are going to hold intrinsic value post-economic collapse:

• Water – Particularly water bottles. These are readily portable, and not so value dense as to be unpractical for trade.
• Water Filters – The majority of Americans have less than 3 days of food in their home. That includes water. If people can’t afford their electric bill, post-economic collapse, they are going to need access to safe water, and a water filter provides that.
• Ammo – I truly believe that this will be one of the most practical and widely accepted forms of currency. It’s been used before as a currency, and it’ll be used again.
• Guns – Value-dense, but there are going to be people who want them to protect their families from post-collapse violence. The demand for guns skyrocketed this year thanks to the riots and government action. What do you think the demand will look like post-collapse?
• Gasoline Containers – Everybody will need them, and very few have them.
• Food – There will always be a need for food, and – as witnessed by food bank lines – one of the first indicators of economic downturns.
• Diapers – Parents go through thousands of these per year and will not have an adequate supply for their kids post-collapse. I believe reusable cloth diapers will be important.
• Body Armor – Value-dense, but people will want it. There are record sales of it this year, and that desire will continue in a violent, post-collapse economy.
• Coffee – It creates an addiction, and the withdrawal effects SUCK. People are going to want coffee, and there are ways to store it for a long time.
• Boots – There will be an increase in the amount of walking the average man does thanks to the unavailability of gasoline. Shoes will wear out and need to be replaced.
• Coats – Clothing wears out, new people are always being created, people constantly change size, and people always need it.
• Gloves – There will be an increase in outdoor work, and gloves wear out.
• Alcohol – Another thing that mankind can’t seem to get enough of. I just wouldn’t broadcast how much of this stuff that you have. People kill for it.
• Tobacco – Another addiction that I wouldn’t broadcast you have a lot of. Cigarettes were routinely used as currency among POWs in WW2, and still are used in prisons throughout the world as currency.
• Baby Formula – If breastfeeding is no longer an option, people are going to need formula to feed their babies. Parents WILL feed their babies, and there will be a dire need for such. Once again, not something I would advertise that I have a stockpile of.
• Gasoline – This will always be needed for vehicles and generators.
• Salt – Needed for meat storage since it is very unlikely that people will have access to constant electricity for refrigeration.
• Medical Supplies – Crutches, slings, gauze, various first aid equipment and more will be in short supply. People always hurt themselves, and very few of much stored for their own first aid.
• Medicine – There will always be a need for medication.
• Spare Gun Parts – Guns break, and few have spare parts stored.
• Condoms – People are going to realize that now is probably not the best time to get pregnant. If you staple three of them together and sell them in multi-packs, you can create a market for your baby formula as well! (I’m kidding, I’m kidding.)
• Eye Glasses – Maybe it’s difficult to get replacement glasses, but reading glasses can be bought in bulk cheaply. It’s one of the most difficult things to get in prison, as the “state issue” glasses make you look like a retired mob boss.
• Holsters – The thousands of people who bought pistols to keep in their nightstand will come to realize that they need a way to carry their weapon around with them. Things will be too dangerous to do otherwise, and many forget to buy a holster ahead of time.

When it comes to services, these are the skills that I believe will be in great demand post-economic collapse. It would be wise to learn at least some degree of proficiency in one of them.

• Farming – Food production will be vital, and the man with beehives, fields, a garden, chickens, or dairy animals will be able to produce an item that people need on a daily basis.
• Ranching – Much different than farming. Whether you know how to manage cattle for somebody else, or have the knowledge to raise them of your own accord, cattle, sheep, goats, and so on are going to need to be cared for to provide meat, leather, hides, and more for people.
• Mechanical Work – Vehicles, generators, and more will break down and people will need them to be fixed.
• Electrical Work – Wiring solar, pumps for wells, and more will always be needed.
• Machining – It is likely that there will still be factories producing, and machinists will be needed for such.
• Gunsmithing – Accidents happen, and few trust their own abilities to fix a firearm. Gunsmiths will be needed for such events.
• Leatherwork – Primarily for holsters, gun straps, and clothing.
• Medical Work – There will be a dire need for such workers post-economic collapse. People will be unable to afford their medications, or regular healthcare services, and thus there will be a drastic increase in acute conditions. Medical workers will be needed to address such, even if it is on the individual barter basis.
• Protection – Herds, businesses, neighborhoods, and residences are going to want permanent protection, and will be willing to hire experienced armed men to do so. Knowing how to patrol, set up a perimeter, and dispose of threats will be in demand.
• Baking – Knowledge of how to make bread will allow you to produce an item that everyone will need and want post-collapse.
• Textile Creation – Whether this comes in the form of knitting, crocheting, tailoring, or so on, there will be a need for items of cloth as clothing gradually wears out, is lost, soiled, or stolen.

Keep in mind that all the above are general lists. Undoubtedly, you will be able to think of both goods and services that will have post-economic collapse value that are not included above. These are simply given to get your mind thinking about some sure-fire ways to be able to barter for what you need in the event of an economic collapse.

What About Precious Metals?

There are two reasons gold and silver have been omitted:

First, the use of precious metals doesn’t seem to come into common use until well after the period of barter transactions.

Second, I believe that precious metals are much more important for wealth evacuation. Let’s take a look at both of these in more detail.

To begin with, seldom throughout history do we see precious metals instantly being reverted to as currency post-economic collapse. Why? You can’t eat them, you can’t drink them, and few understand their inherent value (ask a friend what the current price of gold is to find see). Even fewer can tell if the gold/silver that you are offering them is the real deal or a fake.

Stocking precious metals is now how to survive an economic collapse. People don’t want gold and silver after an economic collapse. They want to be able to feed their families. Gold and silver will not be a readily used means of exchange in such an event.

To further complicate matters, gold is incredibly value dense. As of this writing, gold is a little over $2000 an ounce. That’s a lot of value wrapped up in that little coin. If you need ammunition, and go to buy it from some small-time reloader, do you think he’ll be able to honor the equivalent of an ounce of gold’s worth of ammo? Odds are he won’t even have that much in stock. If we really want to examine the issue, I think that silver would be a better form of currency, precious-metals wise.

Silver is currently around $25/ounce. That’s a much more useable value amount on a daily basis. (If you want to read more, read about the best silver for preppers.) However, what we see throughout history is the reversion to barter, not to the gold standard.

Gold Exception – Wealth Evacuation

If you’ve got to get the heck out of somewhere, and fast, then I believe that gold is where it’s at. Silver is too bulky. A pocket full of gold coins would allow you to “start fresh” somewhere a bit more stable (if you can find such a place). Shoot, we can even look at the US post-Civil War here. Southern money was worth nothing after the war. However, those with gold and silver were able to have something with inherent value that would be redeemable for the new currency.

Again, we can look to the German Jews of the late 1930s. This was a very scary time to be a Jew in Europe. The persecution was very real, and things were heating up. The man who was able to sew gold coins up into the hem of his jacket, and get the heck out of Dodge ASAP was able to arrive at a new and politically friendlier climate with at least some of his wealth intact and under the radar. Baggage is lost and stolen. Clothing seldom is. Thus, I believe that one of the best purposes of gold is wealth evacuation.

How to Survive an Economic Collapse Summary

If you had asked people a year ago if they ever thought the entire world would enact lockdowns and throw refuse people for not wearing a surgical mask at Kroger, they would have said you were nuts. Yet, here we are. Why is it so improbable to think an economic collapse couldn’t be next? All of the warning signs are there? Is it foolish to just ignore them, and pretend that things will always continue on as “normal”?

I’ll let you come to your own conclusions.

Conclusion

So, let’s simplify things.

• The statists argue that nothing really bad will happen in the future. At worst will be a recession, but Washington DC will have everything under control.
• The “doom and gloomers” are forecasting a complete melt-down of the American society, and it will happen regardless of an American involvement in World War III.
• Preppers are fearful for the worst of the worst.
• Fourth Turning followers are also fearful for the worst of the worst.
• Media Shrills are mindless automatons. They just regurgitate their programming.
• Sheeple are oblivious. They know that things are going to shit, but they believe what ever they read. The the “news” says that everything is under control.
• Neocons believe that everything will be fixed and turn around once the USA wins World War III.

So what is going to happen?

I cannot tell you all because everyone’s future is different. We all have our own MWI topography maps, and our futures depend on our thoughts, and affirmations.

Would it be too strange for me to allude that the members of each of the groups above will have their own futures play out exactly as their thoughts and actions dictate…

…Yup. That is what it’s gonna be (more or less).

No one is going to be unscathed. We will all experience changes. It’s just that the magnitude of the changes will differ from person to person. The best advice that I can give is to make your immediate environment safe, secure and as stable as possible.

There is no way to predict what will happen for the vast bulk of humanity. All you can do is prepare for your own family and your own region.

The best way to prepare is to be prudent. Be cautious. Be positive, and conduct prayer affirmations that include a GENEROUS listing of affirmations that describe safety and isolation from any looming catastrophes as a result of American mismanagement, evil behaviors, or insanity of one level or the other.

Do you want more?

I have more posts in my SHTF Index here…

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