Tag: how long

How long will the COVID-19 outbreak last? History indicates that it could last for over a year.

Donald Trump, in late march 2020, announced that he expects that “things will be back to normal by Easter”. That’s pretty much a three week time period.

I am sorry to say that that probably will not happen.

The United States is not China. The United States cannot replicate China’s success in controlling the outbreak. China mastered the COVID-19 outbreak by the implementation of extremely drastic measures, and even at that, it took a three month-long national lock-down to do so.

America, unorganized, corrupt, rife with fraud and incompetence is not going to be able to handle this event like the Chinese did. As I write this, many Americans are not wearing masks outside, and just last week everyone was partying (without a care) during Spring Break.

Nah. It’s not going to end in three weeks.

Not for Americans. Anyways.

For America, and for other “free” democracies, the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak will be felt for a long time. How long? No one knows for certain, all we have is what we know from history. And, at that, history tells us that the Influenza outbreak in 1918 lasted for a solid year until well into 2019.

Here we review that event. We look at what happened and perhaps learn a little bit about history in the process.

The following information comes from the most excellent internet resource; Britannia which is an on-line encyclopedia. I find that it is better than most other internet resources and not as heavily propagandized as Wikipedia and other venues. It’s a resource worth bookmarking. Edited to fit this venue, and all credit to the author(s).

Influenza pandemic of 1918–19

Influenza pandemic of 1918–19, also called Spanish influenza pandemic or Spanish flu, the most severe influenza outbreak of the 20th century and, in terms of total numbers of deaths, among the most devastating pandemics in human history.

influenza pandemic of 1918–19: temporary hospital
influenza pandemic of 1918–19: temporary hospital A temporary hospital in Camp Funston, Kansas, during the 1918–19 influenza pandemic.Courtesy of the National Museum of Health and Medicine, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Washington, D.C

Influenza is caused by a virus that is transmitted from person to person through airborne respiratory secretions. An outbreak can occur if a new strain of influenza virus emerges against which the population has no immunity.

The influenza pandemic of 1918–19 resulted from such an occurrence and affected populations throughout the world.

An influenza virus called influenza type A subtype H1N1 is now known to have been the cause of the extreme mortality of this pandemic, which resulted in an estimated 25 million deaths, though some researchers have projected that it caused as many as 40–50 million deaths.

influenza A H1N1 virus
influenza A H1N1 virusTransmission electron micrograph of recreated 1918 influenza A H1N1 virus.Cynthia Goldsmith/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (Image Number: 8160)

Three Waves

The pandemic occurred in three waves.

The first apparently originated in early March 1918, during World War I. Although it remains uncertain where the virus first emerged, it quickly spread through western Europe, and by July it had spread to Poland. The first wave of influenza was comparatively mild.

However, during the summer a more lethal type of disease was recognized, and this form fully emerged in August 1918. Pneumonia often developed quickly, with death usually coming two days after the first indications of the flu. 

For example, at Camp Devens, Massachusetts, U.S., six days after the first case of influenza was reported, there were 6,674 cases. The third wave of the pandemic occurred in the following winter, and by the spring the virus had run its course.

In the two later waves about half the deaths were among 20- to 40-year-olds, an unusual mortality age pattern for influenza.

Walter Reed Hospital
Walter Reed HospitalThe influenza ward at Walter Reed Hospital, Washington, D.C., during the 1918–19 epidemic.Library of Congress, Washington, D.C. (cph 3a39569)

Outbreaks of the flu occurred in nearly every inhabited part of the world, first in ports, then spreading from city to city along the main transportation routes.

India is believed to have suffered at least 12.5 million deaths during the pandemic, and the disease reached distant islands in the South Pacific, including New Zealand and Samoa.

In the United States about 550,000 people died.

Most deaths worldwide occurred during the brutal second and third waves. Other outbreaks of Spanish influenza occurred in the 1920s but with declining virulence.

Conclusion

What does this mean?

We can expect that authoritarian governments will have a much better success in controlling the disease than the “freedom loving” democracies would. They are far better equipped in handling crisis events, emergencies and the mobilization of the citizenry.

We can expect that authoritarian governments should be able to resume “somewhat normal” life within a half year from the first onset of the sickness. China is leading the way, and showing that it can be done.

Other nations would have a longer duration of illness and it could easily move in multiple waves. The influenza of 1918 ran in three (four) waves, and each wave became successively more dangerous. It is possible that the COVID-19 would be able to suspend “normal” life in a non-authoritarian government for up to two years (worst case).

I cannot predict the future.

However, I feel reasonably confident that America will be dealing with this illness through the Fall of 2020 and into the Winter of 2021. It is unlikely that the United States could alter the path that it is firmly set upon. 

An emergency spending bill was passed in late March 2020 that was so loaded down with "pork projects" that it is a wonder that the people do not rise up and lynch the entire lot of Washington politicians on the spot.

It's politics as usual. And that can be fatal for many Americans. As in this latest bow-down to big-Pharma...
 
Michigan’s Democrat Governor THREATENS All  Doctors and Pharmacists who Prescribe or Dispense Hydroxychloroquine for  Coronavirus Patients

Meanwhile China, and the rest of Asia will be able to suppress the illness by late Spring 2020.

Meanwhile…

Please be prudent, take reasonable precautions, and ignore the American media advice that…

  • It is only lethal to older people.
  • It is just a kind of flu.
  • You do not need to wear a mask.

All of which are false.

People this is a SHTF event. You are either ready for it, or your aren’t. Please make the best of it, in your own way, with those that you care about. God Bless.

Please make the best of it, in your own way, with those that you care about. God Bless.
Please make the best of it, in your own way, with those that you care about. God Bless.

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