Tag: duration

How long will the COVID-19 outbreak last? History indicates that it could last for over a year.

Donald Trump, in late march 2020, announced that he expects that “things will be back to normal by Easter”. That’s pretty much a three week time period.

I am sorry to say that that probably will not happen.

The United States is not China. The United States cannot replicate China’s success in controlling the outbreak. China mastered the COVID-19 outbreak by the implementation of extremely drastic measures, and even at that, it took a three month-long national lock-down to do so.

America, unorganized, corrupt, rife with fraud and incompetence is not going to be able to handle this event like the Chinese did. As I write this, many Americans are not wearing masks outside, and just last week everyone was partying (without a care) during Spring Break.

Nah. It’s not going to end in three weeks.

Not for Americans. Anyways.

For America, and for other “free” democracies, the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak will be felt for a long time. How long? No one knows for certain, all we have is what we know from history. And, at that, history tells us that the Influenza outbreak in 1918 lasted for a solid year until well into 2019.

Here we review that event. We look at what happened and perhaps learn a little bit about history in the process.

The following information comes from the most excellent internet resource; Britannia which is an on-line encyclopedia. I find that it is better than most other internet resources and not as heavily propagandized as Wikipedia and other venues. It’s a resource worth bookmarking. Edited to fit this venue, and all credit to the author(s).

Influenza pandemic of 1918–19

Influenza pandemic of 1918–19, also called Spanish influenza pandemic or Spanish flu, the most severe influenza outbreak of the 20th century and, in terms of total numbers of deaths, among the most devastating pandemics in human history.

influenza pandemic of 1918–19: temporary hospital
influenza pandemic of 1918–19: temporary hospital A temporary hospital in Camp Funston, Kansas, during the 1918–19 influenza pandemic.Courtesy of the National Museum of Health and Medicine, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Washington, D.C

Influenza is caused by a virus that is transmitted from person to person through airborne respiratory secretions. An outbreak can occur if a new strain of influenza virus emerges against which the population has no immunity.

The influenza pandemic of 1918–19 resulted from such an occurrence and affected populations throughout the world.

An influenza virus called influenza type A subtype H1N1 is now known to have been the cause of the extreme mortality of this pandemic, which resulted in an estimated 25 million deaths, though some researchers have projected that it caused as many as 40–50 million deaths.

influenza A H1N1 virus
influenza A H1N1 virusTransmission electron micrograph of recreated 1918 influenza A H1N1 virus.Cynthia Goldsmith/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (Image Number: 8160)

Three Waves

The pandemic occurred in three waves.

The first apparently originated in early March 1918, during World War I. Although it remains uncertain where the virus first emerged, it quickly spread through western Europe, and by July it had spread to Poland. The first wave of influenza was comparatively mild.

However, during the summer a more lethal type of disease was recognized, and this form fully emerged in August 1918. Pneumonia often developed quickly, with death usually coming two days after the first indications of the flu. 

For example, at Camp Devens, Massachusetts, U.S., six days after the first case of influenza was reported, there were 6,674 cases. The third wave of the pandemic occurred in the following winter, and by the spring the virus had run its course.

In the two later waves about half the deaths were among 20- to 40-year-olds, an unusual mortality age pattern for influenza.

Walter Reed Hospital
Walter Reed HospitalThe influenza ward at Walter Reed Hospital, Washington, D.C., during the 1918–19 epidemic.Library of Congress, Washington, D.C. (cph 3a39569)

Outbreaks of the flu occurred in nearly every inhabited part of the world, first in ports, then spreading from city to city along the main transportation routes.

India is believed to have suffered at least 12.5 million deaths during the pandemic, and the disease reached distant islands in the South Pacific, including New Zealand and Samoa.

In the United States about 550,000 people died.

Most deaths worldwide occurred during the brutal second and third waves. Other outbreaks of Spanish influenza occurred in the 1920s but with declining virulence.

Conclusion

What does this mean?

We can expect that authoritarian governments will have a much better success in controlling the disease than the “freedom loving” democracies would. They are far better equipped in handling crisis events, emergencies and the mobilization of the citizenry.

We can expect that authoritarian governments should be able to resume “somewhat normal” life within a half year from the first onset of the sickness. China is leading the way, and showing that it can be done.

Other nations would have a longer duration of illness and it could easily move in multiple waves. The influenza of 1918 ran in three (four) waves, and each wave became successively more dangerous. It is possible that the COVID-19 would be able to suspend “normal” life in a non-authoritarian government for up to two years (worst case).

I cannot predict the future.

However, I feel reasonably confident that America will be dealing with this illness through the Fall of 2020 and into the Winter of 2021. It is unlikely that the United States could alter the path that it is firmly set upon. 

An emergency spending bill was passed in late March 2020 that was so loaded down with "pork projects" that it is a wonder that the people do not rise up and lynch the entire lot of Washington politicians on the spot.

It's politics as usual. And that can be fatal for many Americans. As in this latest bow-down to big-Pharma...
 
Michigan’s Democrat Governor THREATENS All  Doctors and Pharmacists who Prescribe or Dispense Hydroxychloroquine for  Coronavirus Patients

Meanwhile China, and the rest of Asia will be able to suppress the illness by late Spring 2020.

Meanwhile…

Please be prudent, take reasonable precautions, and ignore the American media advice that…

  • It is only lethal to older people.
  • It is just a kind of flu.
  • You do not need to wear a mask.

All of which are false.

People this is a SHTF event. You are either ready for it, or your aren’t. Please make the best of it, in your own way, with those that you care about. God Bless.

Please make the best of it, in your own way, with those that you care about. God Bless.
Please make the best of it, in your own way, with those that you care about. God Bless.

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Evolution of America, divided into two sets of 100 year duration periods, and how it manifested.

This is what we refer to as a "sanity check". It is where we, as engineers, perform a simplified calculation to determine if the calculations that we arrived at, are valid...

This is a reprint of the most excellent Ron Paul article. Modified and edited to fit this venue. In it, he argues that you don’t need to look at complicated “generational theories”, r/K or KaLa theories to explain what is happening to America today. You just need to look at what happens every one hundred years or so…

It is titled Two Sets of 100 yr Periods in American History — Each Guided by Completely Opposite Ideas and it was written on 1/8/2020. There’s a lot here, and it is worth some study. This is an interesting take on the changes that moved America far, far… far and FAR away from what it was initially founded upon.

The idea behind this is that all , and I do mean ALL, nations collapse after around a one hundred year period.

Two Sets of 100 yr Periods in American History — Each Guided by Completely Opposite Ideas

The great Austrian economist Ludwig Von Mises wrote: 

"History  is a struggle between two principles, the peaceful principle, which  advances the development of trade, and the militarist-imperialist  principle, which interprets human society not as a friendly division of  labour but as the forcible repression of some of its members by others."

America was founded on the peaceful principle.

If you are peaceful, other people and nations will work with you on friendly terms, and your people will be happy.

The country’s first President, George Washington, said in his farewell address: 

"It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliance with any portion of the foreign world".

Ah, that is all nice and good. However consider the practical applications and issues…

This policy, which can be packaged into the euphemism “America First” was the guiding policy for the first 100+ years of the country’s existence.

The guiding principle for the first one hundred years was to put Americans first in all national decisions and programs.

Indeed, America truly was independent.

America

This did not mean that America was “isolationist.” Far from it, of course. Thomas Jefferson explained at his inaugural that the policy was one of: 

"Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations - entangling alliances with none."

Do not laugh.

America, as founded, was a peaceful and positive and friendly life. It was a place where people formed communities and welcomed others and helped others.
America, as founded, was a peaceful and positive and friendly life. It was a place where people formed communities and welcomed others and helped others.

Here was a land, the largest free-trade zone to ever exist, shielded by giant oceans, with a limited government that only had a few enumerated powers. The individual was master of his domain. 

Consider…

The situation. The creation of “America”in a free-ranging (or apparently so) land, were Earth-shattering and life-changing — Prosperity, the likes of which have never existed before.

America was a prosperous and happy place. The government was run by people much like ourselves, and they held the same value and issues that we ourselves cherished..
America was a prosperous and happy place. The government was run by people much like ourselves, and they held the same value and issues that we ourselves cherished..

But alas, after 100+ years passed, new generations with little to no connection (or care) for the ideas of Washington & Jefferson, decided to change course for the worse. The ‘Old World’ ideas of power and empire crept in through the back door…

Ideals were replaced by individual greed.

Roughly one hundred years after the founding, ideals were replaced by individual greed.

The new reality.

In this new embrace of the ‘Old World,’ the individual would no longer be the master of his domain. Government would be the master.

Sounds perfect, eh?

It is a parent-child relationship. One in which sociologists and psychiatrists consider to be very unhealthy for peer-to-peer interaction.
Big government only grows bigger. Eventually it takes and consumes everything and you, as a hapless civilian, gets trampled upon.
Big government only grows bigger. Eventually it takes and consumes everything and you, as a hapless civilian, gets trampled upon.

I know many Democrats believe that utopia is “just around the corner”. It’s just only if…

A new America…

Suddenly, in 1898, after much careful planning by those who had an insatiable lust for power, America would take on the role of conqueror.

And conquer it did.

In a single year, the United States took control of five far-flung nations, which contained 11 million people, all in one fell-swoop.

The military was no longer used for defensive and humanitarian missions to help American citizens. It became a money-making machine to serve the special interests of Washington neocon insiders.
The military was no longer used for defensive and humanitarian missions to help American citizens. It became a money-making machine to serve the special interests of Washington neocon insiders.

Washington & Jefferson were tossed into the dust-bin.

Independence was cast aside. Intervention was the new game in town. In 1898, the slow death of “America First” was given its first real kick to the chops.

Of course, the original role of government would have to be transformed. 

Transformed…

If America was to have an empire, it would have to take control of every American citizen’s earnings.

Once citizens no longer owned their earnings, and money. They became powerless. The people who had control of the money also had control over them. Americans became debt-serfs at the mercy of the government.
Once citizens no longer owned their earnings, and money. They became powerless. The people who had control of the money also had control over them. Americans became debt-serfs at the mercy of the government.

Enter President Wilson – Progressive Genius.

And so, in 1913, with the creation of the income tax, every American’s earnings would belong to the government first. The government would decide how much each person would be allowed to keep.

The government would decide.

President Wilson believed that the concepts of “Liberty” and “Freedom” were outdated and needed to be replaced with “modern” and “progressive” systems.

The government should decide what to do with people’s earnings.

Not the people.

Not the individual.

The government should decide.

American government today. It is far, far too powerful. This is the complete creation of President Wilson.
American government today. It is far, far too powerful. This is the complete creation of President Wilson.

It’s all so progressive…

…

A nightmare!

What a drastic change for the worse!

The big enormous government takes and takes and takes. It threatens and puts the citizenry in a state of near constant fear, and what do they get in return? Nothing.
The big enormous government takes and takes and takes. It threatens and puts the citizenry in a state of near constant fear, and what do they get in return? Nothing.

But an income tax would not be enough.

It wasn’t enough. Not for the people who thought that they were better then everyone else. Oh, no.

After all, government can only tax people up to a certain point before they decide to revolt. American politicians, of all people, knew that!

So an even more insidious institution would be created, also in 1913. It would be called The Federal Reserve. This central bank would be granted a monopoly on counterfeiting money.

Pure genius!

Take the blame out of the hand of the government and put it into an unaccountable entity. Such wonderful genius.

The Impact…

How much money?

As much money as the government needs in order to sprawl itself around the world. Every American would be forced to use this “money,” of course, even though its purchasing power would be constantly eroded. Legal Tender Laws would make sure that there was no way out.

It’s ok, though.

Americans voted for the people who decided to implement this system. You know…

… one hundred years ago.

And the people in charge allocated their responsibilities and veto power to other people…

…other people who turned it over to others…

…who allocated it to others…

… who decided to pass it on to others…

… who would work in the best interests to make the system work….

Sounds bad. Well, sorry, that’s the way it is.

And so, with an income tax and a printing press, the Land of The Free would morph, over the next 100+ years, into the biggest government to ever exist … the biggest military empire to ever exist … and the biggest welfare state to ever exist.

Aren’t you all happy?

American leadership knows just how to manipulate and cajole the American serf-cash-cows... erp, I mean citizens.
American leadership knows just how to manipulate and cajole the American serf-cash-cows… erp, I mean citizens.

Freedom!

Washington & Jefferson would not recognize this at all. It’s literally the exact opposite of why the 13 colonies seceded from England.

It is.

America

Do not tell me that it is not the case.

This new era of empire would be dominated by “Bread and Circuses”. There would be plenty of food, and plenty of entertainment. What happens outside of America would remain out-of-sight and out-of-mind.

Yeah.

All political fighting inside of America would take place between two virtually indistinguishable factions. The gangs would passionately battle each other, but they would never battle the policy of empire.

Yeah.

Policy is the only thing that matters. But Americans would be flooded with a deluge of propaganda telling them that the ability to change politicians is a gift from the heavens. That, they would be told, is the only thing that matters.

Yeah.

And so, throughout this period, the politicians would certainly change, but the policy wouldn’t budge even a single inch. In other words, the politicians would change….but it wouldn’t matter!

And now…

So now we have two sets of 100 year periods in American history, each guided by completely opposite ideas.

The first produced liberty and prosperity in tremendous abundance. The second has produced a dependency, militancy and debauchery that has always been the lot of mankind living under the boot of power.

American today. This is what America is, it rules by force, and power.
American today. This is what America is, it rules by force, and power.

The two one hundred year periods…

The first was underpinned by peace, trade, sound money, savings and investment.

The first one hundred years of America was one with solid and conservative values. It put the individual in full control of his domain, and kept the government small. People lived their lives as they deemed fit.
The first one hundred years of America was one with solid and conservative values. It put the individual in full control of his domain, and kept the government small. People lived their lives as they deemed fit.

The second has been underpinned by war, sanctions, counterfeit money, taxes, and crushing debt.

Everything in this picture was destroyed with American bombs, and weapons, fired by American soldiers, and used by America to spread American "democracy". This is the reality today.
The second hundred years has been nothing but war after war, after war. All funded with more and more, and more taxes. You know for “democracy”. Everything in this picture was destroyed with American bombs, and weapons, fired by American soldiers, and used by America to spread American “democracy”. This is the reality today.

And us, the American citizens…

Those who live are always presented with a choice — continue, or change?

America: CONTINUE or CHANGE?

For years…

Years…

Generations..

No one did any thing.

America. Americans live in a constant state of fear and are really too afraid to change anything. They are just content to yell about their "freedom" and the wonderful "democracy", instead of doing things and fixing things.
America. Americans live in a constant state of fear and are really too afraid to change anything. They are just content to yell about their “freedom” and the wonderful “democracy”, instead of doing things and fixing things.

Nothing.

Weaklings. Lazy. Slothful.

Our parents, grand parents, great-grand parents.

Change happens through individual choice. The ideas that we each individually embrace mean everything.

Real change can happen when we stop allowing the government to take over society. We need to throw away that connection. Because a corrupt government will corrupt society.
Real change can happen when we stop allowing the government to take over society. We need to throw away that connection. Because a corrupt government will corrupt society.

People!

A corrupt government will corrupt society.

Power lives and breathes on your belief in it. Why do you think you’re surrounded by propaganda at every turn?

For fun?

No! … It’s to keep you believing.

You do not need to live your life in fear. Prepping is well and good, but your government should be on your side. Not the other way around.
You do not need to live your life in fear. Prepping is well and good, but your government should be on your side. Not the other way around.

It’s to convince you that liberty is dead. And that government has the keys to your happiness. You just keep on following the media talking points. Nothing else matters.

Reality

However, if you change your belief, you change everything. You breathe life into the idea of liberty. 

If you breathe life into the idea of liberty, you make America a much better place.

Washington left us with these wonderful words: “Liberty, when it begins to take root, is a plant of rapid growth.”

The choice is always yours…..continue, or change?

And that is it.

Thank you Ron Paul.

Many Americans mistakenly believe that “America is the greatest nation in the world”, simply based on the longevity of the nation. That’s just pure ignorance. The nation had changed governmental structure numerous times.

  • Founded as a Republic.
  • Changed to a Democracy with the 12th amendment.
  • Centralized Federal Democracy during the Civil War.
  • Progressive Social Democracy under President Wilson.
  • Military Oligarchy under President Lindon Johnson.
  • Corrupt Military Totalitarian Empire today.

If you believe that what is written makes sense than you have two choices of action. They are [1] take immediate action to protect you and your family, or [2] ignore it.

If you ignore it, then that if fine. Just listen to me and do not allow the American propaganda to force you to live within fear. The world is not a terrible and dark place. Good people are everywhere and the world outside the United States increasingly looks like a modern scene from the televisions show “Wally and the Beaver”.

Avoid the American “news”. In all of it’s forms…

What in the world is the American government up to? I thought that the ninth amendment states that Americans have more rights than just the enumerated ones.
What in the world is the American government up to? I thought that the ninth amendment states that Americans have more rights than just the enumerated ones.

If you don’t believe that this is the state of affairs, then you can can ignore this and read CNN, MSN and WaPo to tell you what to believe and how to act.

Do not live your life in fear. DO NOT LIVE YOUR LIFE IN FEAR!
Do not live your life in fear. DO NOT LIVE YOUR LIFE IN FEAR!

It’s your choice.

American news is really just propaganda. It is designed to keep Americans into a state of control. While real events and real news is kept secret.
American news is really just propaganda. It is designed to keep Americans into a state of control. While real events and real news is kept secret.

Commentary and Conclusion

Kinda of boring,eh?

Well, that’s the way it is. America has stratified, and it is the rich vs. the slaves and there is nothing that exists in the “dead-lands” between the two groups. This is the sum total of the “wonderful” progressive utopia implemented by President Wilson in the early part of the last century and engineered to perfection today.

You like it?

You’d better, because there ain’t no way that you can change it. You are fucked.

You are fucked.

Fucked.

Welcome to being an American.

America

Put a smile on your face. It’s your life.

Rah! Rah.

“freedom”. “liberty”, “democracy”! Rah. Rah!

Hope you keep all your receipts to give to the IRS in April. You don’t want to suffer the consequences for “non-compliance”, now don’t you? It’s all part of that big “freedom” package that comes with “democracy” don’t you know.

Friendly IRS making sure that you will not cheat your owners out of their money. You had best obey or else you and your family will be shot dead. It's all so very progressive and modern, don't you know!
Friendly IRS making sure that you will not cheat your owners out of their money. You had best obey or else you and your family will be shot dead. It’s all so very progressive and modern, don’t you know!

I hope you enjoyed this little narrative. You can find more, and better, discussions on other SHTF posts, Accessed here…

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