According to the “Fourth Turning”, the year of 2025 will be the point in time where a major “turning point” or crisis will occur. Historically that means a serious war on American soil.

As 100% of the previous fourth turnings were [1] deadly serious wars that [2] occurred on American soil. They also [3] used the most lethal technology, and military forces of the time.

This article embraces this historical fact and extrapolates possible scenarios out from it.

These are ugly, ugly scenarios and I personally hope that none of them come true.

• A crisis event on American soil.
• Deadly serious event that costs the lives of Americans and wrecks the economy.
• Uses the most lethal technology of the time.

As a review, for those of you who are oblivious what this is all about, the “Fourth Turning” is a theory that predicts social turmoil upon an 80 year cycle.

• Social turmoil.
• The possibility of social upheaval.
• The possibility of a major HOT war during the crisis period.

The work was written around 1995, and EVERYTHING that was predicted has come to pass. This prediction also predicts for a major crisis event to take place in the 2025 time period +/- 2 years.

The article is about the “peak” of the Fourth Turning – A crisis period.

This article discusses a very specific event that takes place in the midst of the Fourth Turning. It is the “peak” or most dangerous time. It is known as the “crisis”.

If you want to read about the social upheavals and changes leading up to this crisis, you can read about it in another post. It opens up into a separate tab for your reading pleasure.

A nuclear nightmare.

Here, we talk about the “crisis” that will be the “big event” of this “Fourth Turning”. As such, and I am sorry to say, that there is a very strong likelihood that it will result in large-scale nuclear weapon detonations on American soil.

Yes.

You read that correctly.

There is a strong likelihood that large-scale nuclear weapon(s) will be detonated on American soil around the Fourth Turning crisis event.

There are numerous reasons why I hold this belief. But the biggest, I suppose, is the pro-war faction in the United States government.

You see, the United States now believes that we should improve our nuclear warfare fighting capability so that we can use it.

After all, with all those proxy wars the United States is fighting now, (eight in total as of 2019) that we should be able to field and use nuclear weapons freely without worry of retaliation. (After all, what’s all this nonsense about going to battle against Turkey and “our allies” the Kurds?)

 John  Bolton, openly advocates a first-strike policy against nuclear-armed  enemies, and the Pentagon, after decades of careful disarmament, wants  to spend $1.2 trillion to upgrade its nuclear arsenal. 

If you’ve felt a  new shiver of nuclear fear over the past year, you’re not alone: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has moved its “Doomsday Clock” to within two minutes of midnight — closer than it has been since the height of the Cold War.  

 - This Is What a Nuclear Bomb Looks Like  

You see, according to the military and political planned deep within the bowels of Washington, America can use “low yield” tactical nuclear weapons on a sovereign foreign nation, and aside from some “political squawk”, nothing bad will come of it.

No one ever fights back. Right?

In December 2016, the US Defense Science Board – a semi-independent  group that advises the Secretary of Defense – warned that “the nuclear  threshold may be decreasing owing to the stated doctrines and weapons  developments of some states.” 

Therefore, the DSB recommended DOD should  “provide many more options in stemming proliferation or escalation; and a  more flexible nuclear enterprise that could produce, if needed, a rapid, tailored nuclear option for limited use should existing non-nuclear or nuclear options prove insufficient.” This would involve “lower yield, primary only options” for strategic warheads on long-range ballistic missiles. 

- The Terrifying Nuclear War Game the US Shouldn't Play  

Now along with this attitude, is the strong belief that if America fields “low yield” nuclear devices that it will NOT result in devastating nuclear retaliatory strikes. That is considered inconceivable, as “everyone knows” that the United States is the strongest and most powerful nation in the world.

There wouldn’t ever be any repercussions.

It’s inconceivable.

America still thinks that it is the only dog in the barn-yard. But, you know, the rest of the farm animals are getting mightily tired of the dog bullying everyone around. Especially as the dog is getting old, has arthritis, and other problems. One day, another animal might just say that enough is enough.

America spent millions of dollars on NED, which actively went into China, into Hong Kong, on Chinese soil. They taught and trained the anti-government forces there. They taught them how to perform "soft violence" to provoke the mainland Chinese. They paid protestors, and gave them the skills to build bombs, and target maps and a strategy. 

All of which was caught on video. With Trumps advisors caught on film (with a clear audio track) in the HK Marriot hotel explaining how to conduct the riots and how to destroy the subway stations. The Chinese have videos of the teaching and training classes for the insurgents, and the NED even has the gall to have their members on LinkedIN boasting about their involvement in HK.

China did nothing. 

Though, if the roles were reversed, it would be a different story. If China sent advisors to train the BLM and Antifa on how to bomb bus stations, trains, airports and destroy all public transportation. And they were caught on film and broadcast on all the Conservative networks, with Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity talking about it 24-7. It would be a catastrophic error in judgement. Don't you agree?

But China did nothing.

So America believes that it can go about launching all sorts of military, quasi and semi-para military operations all over the globe and no one will ever raise a finger to stop the empire expansionism.

It can be Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan, the Ukraine. It can be anywhere from Venezuela to Turkey. No one will or can stop us. Right?

China will do nothing. Right?

Russia will do nothing. Right?

No one will fight back. Russia and China won’t ever work together against the USA. Right?

Right?

The belief is that the US can launch a few “low yield” nuclear weapons and no nation would dare strike back. The USA can deploy Marines in Hong Kong or Taiwan, and China won’t do anything.

It’s inconceivable. Don’t you know.

I am not the only person that believes this. Read John Paul Roberts excellent article on the pre-nuclear  holocaust  preparations that America is currently engaged in. 

Are You Ready To Die? 

And since it would be inconceivable, the military and the United States government officials are today, far more likely and prone to using “safe”, “tactical” nuclear weapons to further their agendas.

And these are dangerous agendas.

These are agendas that are BLIND to the idea that the rest of the world might put it’s collective foot down and say “ENOUGH!”. And launch a retaliatory strike in full force, not only against the military forces on their territory, but rather at the American homeland, the American cities, and the American people who allowed these morons to get anywhere near nuclear launch codes.

I argue that if the United States, for what ever reason, launches and detonates any kind of nuclear weapon (low-yield, small backpack, tactical strike, or strategic nuclear), that there will be a FULL SCALE retaliatory response aimed at the Untied States.

Any use of nuclear weapons in Asia will result in the complete destruction of the United States.

This, I argue is the 2025 crisis what we should prepare for.

...
                                                            
The  second reality we have failed to understand is what a nuclear  detonation and its aftermath would actually look like. In our  imaginations, fueled by apocalyptic fictions like The Road and The Day After, the  scale and speed of nuclear annihilation seem too vast and horrific to  contemplate. 

If nuclear war is considered “unthinkable,” that is in no  small part because of our refusal to think about it with any clarity or  specificity. 

In the long run, the best deterrent to nuclear war may be  to understand what a single nuclear bomb is capable of doing to, say, a  city like New York — and to accept that the reality would be even worse  than our fears. 

- This Is What a Nuclear Bomb Looks Like 

Most articles on the internet today, when discussing nuclear conflict on American soil, do so under the assumption that it would be a small “terrorist nuke”. A small nuclear weapon, roughly the size of the atomic bomb used against Japan in World War II.

I disagree, and this post does not cover that scenario.

And when American military planners contemplate the use of nuclear weapons it is along the lines of tailored tactical responses for set specific objectives. It’s always with “surgical” precision and “contained” destruction. Never taking into account the strong possibility of “unleashing the dogs of war” against us.

They never take into account that the rest of the world thinks of America as a big loud-mouth bully that one day will get it's comeuppance.

Here we consider a “slap back” response up to an all-out MAD-level (Mutually Assured Destruction) response to the United States. It assumes that we initiate the actions though our military use of “low yield” nuclear weapons in Asia. As such, we look at a large super-power unleashing modern large-capacity nuclear munitions, using hyper-glide technology against an unsuspecting America.

Though, at that, many basement computer nerds think that a nuclear war is winnable and not all that bad...

"A nuke is a big bomb, but not that big. Most of DC would survive, a lot of radiation poisoning though, and as you can see from the occasional floor shot, most of our congress is out of the building at least and most of the time... "

We consider them releasing this onslaught within minutes after the USA detonates a”low yield” device in Asia. Which means, that nuclear detonations over coastal cities by SLBM MIRVs will detonate within minutes of launch.

Minutes.

Two minutes after the SLBM launches off the USA coast, the red lights will light up at NORAD and they will scramble to contact the American leadership. Five minutes later Washington will be erased from the surface of the globe.

Thus obliterating the leadership of America in one fell swoop.

These scenarios assume that the leadership in both Russia and China are not idiots. That they have anticipated the use by America of a tactical "low yield" nuclear weapon, and have positioned submarines and other systems for an immediate kill-level response that would detonate on American soil within minutes.

Perhaps, you the reader disagree. Maybe you think that the rest of the world are idiots, and only Americans are smart. Good for you. Then.

A quick reminder.

While the United States has been very busy funding conventional military operations around the globe, strategic nuclear missile forces have taken a back seat to the realities of global proxy wars without nuclear strike-back.

Once a missile launch is detected, I am comfortable knowing that it will be detected via satellite and the knowledge relayed to SAC HQ. That is…

…unless the Chinese and the Russian hunter-killer satellites don’t take them out.

People!

People!

Five minutes is not enough time to react to nuclear destruction. Whether or not the United States strategic forces are aware of a launch means nothing when hyper-speed technology and delivery weapons are used.

Fundamentals

According to the “Fourth Turning”, we can expect a major critical event to take place around 2025. As shown in the following illustration…

We should note that it immediately follows an election. An election that historically will follow the following features…

• Typically a democrat is elected after an eight-year Republican presidency.
• Democrats historically tend to get America into proxy wars or full scale wars as need be.

It is well known that Democrats love to drag America into wars.

On October 12, 2016 longtime Putin ally Vladimir Zhirinovsky openly threatened nuclear war if Hillary Clinton is elected, saying:

Americans  voting for a president on Nov. 8 must realize that they are voting for  peace on Planet Earth if they vote for Trump. But if they vote for  Hillary it’s war. It will be a short movie. There will be Hiroshimas and  Nagasakis everywhere. 

…and…

I’m forced to remind myself that these are the same people who think  that “inclusion” means shutting down free speech, who believe that the  US should not have borders, who promote transsexual reading hours in the  grammar schools, and who fiercely desire to start a war with Russia. 

-Kunstler

…and…

Turkey’s invasion of northern Syria is about as relevant to the life  of the average American as Late Bronze Age incursions into Syria by the  Hittite king Suppiuliuma I. But for days now, President Trump has been  called a coward and a traitor—not only to his own country, but to the  valiant Kurds, who as far as the left is concerned, might as well have  fought with Washington at Yorktown.

Putin Bad: The Democrats Embrace Neoconservatism

Only the depleted discourse of an utterly bankrupt ruling class could  construe support for endless war, expressed in the puddle-deep  sentimentality of “muh Kurds,” as courageous, while opposition to the military-industrial complex and its misadventures is craven and worthy of the worst names that posterity can find.
 
The meltdown over the Syria crisis and the simultaneous Tulsi-Clinton  dispute, have driven home the strange truth that the Democrats have  become neocons. 

While the Republican party remains split between a  dissident, non-interventionist base and an increasingly illegitimate,  out-of-touch neoconservative Old Guard, which after three years is still  scrambling to defend its prestige in a “revolt” against Trump, the  Democratic party is almost totally in the interventionist camp. 

-American Greatness

• Modern warfare is quite advanced, and involves all sorts of high-technology.
• The world is evolving, and former isolated smaller nations are now aligning with strong super-power nations.
• Every crisis, of the previous three “Fourth Turning” crisis’s has involved full-scale warfare on American soil.

With that in mind, I have taken the liberty to make some assumptions regarding the next crisis which is due to occur in 2025. These are my opinions, and please let it be well understood, that I do not wish any of this to occur.

The assumptions

The following assumptions have been made, even though there are a significant number of variables in play.

• The 2024 election will result with a Democrat president. (A historical norm.)
• The new president will implement all sorts of progressive initiatives. Many of which will result in higher taxes, more rules and regulations and gun confiscation. (Well. Duh!)
• Unlike President Trump who wants to disengage the USA from foreign wars, proxy wars, and empire policing efforts, the democrat President will do the exact opposite and will resemble Presidents Obama and Bush Jr in that regard.
• The Neocon donors to the democrats will demand further involvement in additional proxy wars. The democrats in power will oblige. (It’s the price you pay for all that cold-hard cash.)
• American forays towards the next proxy war will not be an isolated event limited to a singular nations, but will involve an alliance with a major global super-power. (Surprise! and this fact alone will spell doom for many of the cherished beliefs that Americans hold so dearly.)
• The super-powers involved might include either Russia, China, both and a consortium of numerous other interests.
• The normal NED / CIA operations against a sovereign nation will be considered an act of war. (Or at the minimum a serious contributor.)
• Nuclear weapons will be unleashed upon the United States.

There are various reasons why nuclear weapons would be used against America. But we will limit the reasons to the following;

• To destroy the civilian population centers of America rendering it neutered to the effect so that internal civil strife can “eat it alive” unfettered by federal and state governments.
• To provide a “double tap” to smash all and any technological, research and industry might that might oppose efforts elsewhere in the world.
• To send the United States “back to the middle ages” to a point that it would not be able to recover as a viable nation for at least fifty years.

Welcome to 2025. It’s a truly scary scenario.

Nuclear War is no picnic

For those of you younger than 50 years old, here is a quick review about the dangers of a nuclear bomb. It is a nasty device, and if the blast and the light/heat doesn’t kill you, the poisonous radiation will.

 In front of me is a strange amalgamation  of '60s-era flip switches and modern digital display screens. It's the  control console for launching an intercontinental ballistic missile or  ICBM.

On  an archaic display screen in the center of the console, three large  letters blink in rapid succession. "EAM inbound," says my deputy  commander and the second member of the launch crew. An emergency-action  message is on its way, maybe from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, maybe from  the Commander of U.S. Strategic Command, maybe even from the president.  We both mechanically pull down our code books, thick binders swollen  with pages of alpha-numeric sequences, and swiftly decipher the message.

After  nearly four years of pulling ICBM-alert duty, this process is  instinctive. I deliberately recite the encrypted characters to ensure my  deputy is on the same page, literally and figuratively, as six short  characters can effectively communicate a wealth of information through  the use of special decoding binders. "Charlie, Echo, Seven, Quebec,  Golf, Bravo, six characters ending in Bravo." My partner concurs,  scribbling in his code book. 

-Death Wears a Snuggie

Here’s an article talking about a very tiny-tiny suitcase nuke that a terrorist might create and detonate in the center of New York City. (It is difficult to find MAD scenarios on the internet.)

Near  the center of the blast, the suffering and devastation most closely  conform to the fictional apocalypse of our imaginations. This is what it  would look like within a half-mile of Times Square: Few buildings would  remain standing. Mountains of rubble would soar as high as 30 feet. As  fires raged, smoke and ash would loft into the air. The New York Public  Library’s stone guardians would be reduced to pebble and dust.  Rockefeller Center would be an unrecognizable snarl of steel and  concrete, its titanic statue of Prometheus — eight tons of bronze and  plaster clad in gold  — completely incinerated.
                                                            
Within  a half-mile radius of the blast, there would be few survivors. Those  closest to the atomic bombings on Hiroshima and Nagasaki have described  the horrors they witnessed: People with ripped sheets of skin hanging  from their bodies; people whose brains were visible through their  shattered skulls; people with holes for eyes. Sakue Shimohira watched  her mother’s charred body crumble into ash as she tried to wake her.  Shigeko Sasamori’s father cut off the blackened husk of skin all over  her face, revealing pools of pus beneath.
                                        
As  the fireball travels outward from the blast, people, buildings, and  trees within a one-mile radius would be severely burned or charred.  Metal, fabric, plastic, and clay would ignite, melt, or blister. The  intense heat would set gas lines, fuel tanks, and power lines on fire,  and an electromagnetic pulse created by the explosion would knock out  most computers, cell phones, and communication towers within several  miles.
                    
Traveling  much farther than the fireball, a colossal pressure wave would hurtle  forth faster than the speed of sound, generating winds up to 500 miles  per hour. The shock wave would demolish the flimsiest buildings and  strip the walls and roofs off stronger structures, leaving only their  naked and warped scaffolding. It would snap utility poles like  toothpicks and rip through trees, fling people through the air, and turn  brick, glass, wood, and metal into deadly projectiles. A blast in Times  Square, combined with the fireball, would carve a crater 50 feet deep  at the center of the explosion. The shock wave would reach a diameter of  nearly 3.2 miles, shattering windows as far as Gramercy Park and the  American Museum of Natural History.
                                        
All this would happen within a few seconds. 

 - This Is What a Nuclear Bomb Looks Like  

Modern Nuclear Weapons

But we are not talking about small ultra-tiny portable nuclear weapons. We are also not talking about the same kinds of bombs that were dropped on Japan in 1945.

We are talking about something quite different.

We are talking about massive city-reduction weapons using high-technology and specifically designed ultra-lethal nuclear weapons. But not just “city reduction” weapons. These are massive weapons that will turn an entire State into a glassed-over desert.

Oct 26, 2016 · Russia unveils massive Satan 2 ICBM capable of destroying France or Texas in a single hit.  Russia has moved to update its nuclear arsenal with an extreme-range, massive payload ICBM designed specifically to defeat anti-missile systems. Capable of traversing the planet's poles and blowing up Texas in one hit, meet the RS-28 Sarmat, or Satan 2. 

- Cold war redux? Russia unveils massive Satan 2 ICBM 

Yes, you read that right.

The Soviets have fielded full MIRV equipped ICBM’s armed with high-capability nuclear weapons capable of wiping out Texas in a single strike.

People, this is serious business.

This is not MOAB, or “suitcase nuke”. This is a lance forged in Hell and would totally redefine the geography (not to mention the social, cultural, and physical) makeup of the United States.

Russia unveiled its new  super-heavy, MIRV-equipped ICBM this week. The ‘Satan-2’ (that’s its  NATO codename), has a reported throw-weight of 10,000kg, and can carry  up to 15 separate warheads. 

MIRV is an acronym that stands for Multiple  Independently targeted Reentry Vehicles. MIRV-equipped missiles can  deliver multiple nuclear weapons  to a single target area, or blanket a large area with separate  detonations. 

Historically, MIRVs have been seen as potentially  destabilizing because they give a decisive advantage to the country that  can strike first and eliminate its opponent’s land-based missile silos.

The  stats on the RS-28 demonstrate this is a missile that means business, and media outlets controlled by the Russian government have stated that a  single missile is large enough to destroy Texas or France. 

We could  quibble with the definition of “destroy,” but we won’t — any time a  government drops 50MT of nuclear weapons on you, you’re going to have a  really bad day. 

- Russia unveils its new class of RS-28 ‘Satan 2’ nuclear missiles 

Lead ups

Now, back to the Fourth Turning.

Keep in mind that the United States will be in the midst of a great “unraveling”. It will seem like it is teetering and tottering out of control. And well, it will be.

For ten years leading up to the 2025 event, the United States will be in the middle of social and political upheaval.

2015 through to 2025

As crazy as everything seems under a Donald Trump presidency in 2019, now imagine that same level of craziness, except that a radical progressive Marxist democrat is in office, with full support of the mainstream press, the judicial branch, the agencies, and the military. The domestic scene in the United States will be unbearable for most of the nation.

Again, this scenario predicts a democrat president in 2024. Thus, prior to any international activity, the United States would be quite busy involved in converting America into a progressive democrat Marxist “utopia”.

Something along the lines of maybe…

• Cambodia under Pol Pot.
• China under Mr. Mao.
• The Soviet Union under Stalin.
• Cuba under Fidel Castro.

You know, socialist utopias following the traditional model. Though, not everyone will be on board with this vision, and thus civil strife will start to manifest. America, already a police state, would become a very contentious place to live.

Hard line gun disarmament will be under-weigh as well as other progressive initiatives (which were well planned, just “waiting in the wings” since 2014.)

The disruptions would tend to get ugly, and when domestic squabbles get too clamorous, a democrat presidential solution is always to bring America into another war.

He’s making a point here. Ten years ago we were told that these 50  troops would be there for 30 days, and we’re still there. And you know  what is amazing is that you have the American left, which ostensibly  opposes all use of the military. They actually don’t. 

Democrat leaders  don’t. They’re in on this game like everybody else. Just like they are  the original segregationists but have gotten away with not being seen  that way. 

They are huge warmongers.

They profit incredibly from it. 

Their public position is anti-war.  Their public position is anti-military. But look at all the political  donations they get from — they supposedly hate Wall Street. They  supposedly hate the big banks because the big banks screw the average  little guy, American consumer. 

Yet look where all their donations come  from. The big banks, Wall Street, military industrial contractors and so  forth. A gigantic scam. 

-Rush Limbaugh

At some point in time, I predict early on in the first year of the 2024 democrat president, the following events will transpire…

• A mass-shooting event (within the first six months) followed by massive gun disarming efforts. There will be zero efforts to maintain any legal constitutionality in this matter.

This is as predictable as the Epstein death in prison. Everyone knew that he was going to be killed, and that any "investigation" would go nowhere.

• A rapid mainstream press war stance against a super-power or an ally of a superpower. This will be in the first year.
• One or two “international incidents” which will serve as an excuse to deploy troops.

The rush into yet another proxy war is hard to predict. However it is likely that no time will be wasted in this effort.

Oh and make no mistake, the democrats greatly want another proxy war, and they are not getting it under Trump. But once he’s out of the picture, it will be business as usual.

…They think.

"In leading Australia China Business Council for a decade, I saw first hand China's primary and dominant focus is internal - on the welfare of its people, on the betterment of their lives, not on global conquest - as cold war apologists would have us believe. And it has delivered in spades, bringing 850 million of its people out of poverty at the same time as fueling global growth.  

It is the United States that has 800 overseas military posts when China has just 1. It is the United States that is threatening to "totally destroy and obliterate" Turkey. It is the United States that is funding disruption in HK. It is the United States that created the fiction of weapons of mass destruction. 

Australians need to see beyond the US strategies to extend its global hegemony at any cost and focus on the reality of Chinese history and engagement."

-Duncan Calder

This post describes the scenarios when the aligned super-powers decide to snap-back at the United States.

For, the rest of the world is "de-coupling" from the United States and forging strong relationships with Asian nations instead. 

The mainstream American media is not reporting on this trend, and Americans are now oblivious at how badly they are perceived, and how out of touch with the rest of the world they are becoming. 

There are four scenarios.

• Limited Strike. A “warning shot”. A do not mess with us, warning in bright flash technicolor. This situation is one in which America might still be able to retain a kind of national sovereignty.
• A controlled, and yet limited nuclear strike. A “friendly” slap in the face warning to stop all war-like action or face obliteration. All major cities will be crippled beyond repair. Local authorities would take over and the Federal government would be hardly functional at all. Most of America will revert to a time before the Internet, and would consider themselves lucky to have clean water, and electricity that works once or twice a week.
• A nuclear response. This is a “slap back” nuclear response on American soil, if America decides to unleash nuclear weapons in any proxy nation. This is the best-scenario version or the most probable outcome. If America is lucky, it might resemble a radioactive North Korea with a Democrat President declaring himself Marxist utopia ruler for life.
• The Fuck-you Response. This is the “double tap” nuclear response that is intended to send America back to the dark ages. It is designed to allow for the indigenous peoples outside of the cities to balkanize America into smaller, easier to manage third-world “shit holes”. An America after this strike would look like Somalia on a bad day. If America is lucky and fortunate, America would fracture into tiny “third world” nations with would require 75 years to even begin to negotiate on the global table.

Knowing what I know, I would say that the probability of response to be around 80% the “Fuck You” response, and about a 10% chance for the “Nuclear response” and the “Limited Strike” responses respectively.

I argue this based on what i know about democrat presidents. They make decisions based on emotion, not reason. The other nations realize this.

On October 12, 2016 longtime Putin ally Vladimir Zhirinovsky openly threatened nuclear war if Hillary Clinton is elected, saying:

Americans  voting for a president on Nov. 8 must realize that they are voting for  peace on Planet Earth if they vote for Trump. But if they vote for  Hillary it’s war. It will be a short movie. There will be Hiroshimas and  Nagasakis everywhere.  

Why Russia?

While China or other nations might be the target of American proxy wars towards distraction. There are two elements here that are coming to the forefront. It’s all very simple really.

• The election of 2024 will be a Democrat President. (This is a historical norm.)
• Since 2016, the Democrat narrative has been “Russia! Russia! Russia!
• Democrats tend to start large wars, historically speaking.

While it is obvious to everyone that it’s all a concocted narrative aimed at defeating Donald trump and the conservatives, there is no evidence that this narrative is dissipating. Thus, we can expect that the narrative will “take on legs of it’s own” and start to “walk”. This would be dangerous with the rabid ultra-progressive wing demanding that the USA “do something” about Russia.

And what is the government going to do?

Sanctions?

More likely than not a movement of military forces, and subversive NED / NID activity internally. This alone will be enough to trigger a nuclear conflagration.

I argue, and it seems more likely to me, that the Russians are already seeing this scenario in their future, and the moment a military event (troop movement, weapons detonation, or nuclear launch) on their territory, you can expect a Russian response. And, I dare say, Russia will not wait and then react. They will have a plan in place and actions to take.

Automatic full-scale nuclear detonations the very second that the USA tries anything. There will not be a gradual phase-in and tit-for-tat activities. I’m telling you, the Russian reaction will be the pincer event for the rest of the world – a world absolutely fatigued of American arrogance and bellicosity.

Russia will strike first, and will do so in a way that the entire American leadership will be taken out within minutes.

Some notes on the nuclear detonations

This study does not assume one nuclear warhead per city.

Here, the assumption is city devastation by clusters of 1 MT to 5 MT nuclear payloads. These payloads are delivered in clusters of targeted strikes. The clusters are to spread the glassed-over devastation over a wider area, and render nearby areas uninhabitable for centuries.

It assumes groups of three or more nuclear warheads (1 MT) targeted to obliterate specific urban areas completely. The idea is to eviscerate entire swaths of infrastructure and render the population poisoned and unable to recover. Which is the expected norm with both Russia and China.

Now, you can easily see on the map above that the use of one megaton nuclear weapon, in a cluster of three such warheads, would devastate a large city like Los Angles. The thing is, that most of the weapons used by superpowers are not that small. They are, instead, much larger.

• The ICBM RS-28 ‘Satan 2’ carries fifteen (x15) 50 megaton nuclear weapons.
• The SLBM R-29RM carries six smaller 500 kilaton nuclear warheads (1/2 a megaton).

In the following scenarios, we will assume small SLBM launched by submarines. Each target shown would be a cluster of three 500KT to 1MT nuclear detonation.

These scenarios are based on Typhoon "boomer" submarines (Project 941 Akula) launching SLBM R-29RM SLBM armed with six 500 kiloton nuclear munitions aimed at two cities per missile (three warheads per city).

For example, one Typhoon "boomer" would launch  20 R-39 (NATO: SS-N-20) ballistic missiles. Each missile could target two cities, with three nuclear warheads each. Thus one sub could totally and completely destroy 40 cities; launching 120 nuclear 500KT nuclear weapons.

Let’s look into these responses in detail.

[1] Limited Strike.

Here we have a limited strike.

Note, for purposes of simplicity, I refer to a “single warhead” as a single target of three smaller low-yield nuclear weapon detonations. The maps can be used to assume a single warhead in the 10 megaton range, if you would prefer.

This is the scenario that most Americans assume would be the worst possible scenario that America might need to confront.

Of course, most neocons believe that this will never happen, but if you ask them in private, they would grudgingly admit that a nuclear “strike back” option is possible. But that the damage and causalities could be contained, and at most less than a few million Americans dead.

“Just” a few hundred million dead. It’s a “win – win”.

I personally consider this scenario to be the least likely scenario. Though it is considered to be the most realistic worst-case nuclear scenario by the military “experts” in the Washington “think tanks”.

This scenario would devastate the American industry, the stock exchange, the value of the USA dollar, and rock the government to it’s core. It will also result in a full mobilization of the United State military for a global war footing. No one wants this.

Well, almost no one.

• This scenario allows the United States to be able to launch a counter strike. Thus, it is very unlikely that any nation would want the Untied States to be able to retaliate from a nuclear strike.

The thing about this scenario is that it is recoverable. Within five to ten years the United States could recover and continue with “business as usual”.

Personally I found the creepiest parts to be the ones in the aftermath  where the struggling survivors have to contend with a government that  pathetically and menacingly still sees itself as ruling something —  particularly the bit where soldiers gun down a farmer who resists their  “taxing” his meager crops. 

- Umbriel from  The Day After traumatized a generation with the horrors of nuclear war  

The problems that I have with this scenario is that…

• America is able to recover from it and continue “business as usual”.
• America would still be able to launch a nuclear counter-strike.

[2] A controlled, and yet limited nuclear strike.

This scenario is a larger response to the previous scenario.

It describes a nuclear exchange that has the intention of reducing the United States to a third world nation.

This is the the kind of scenario that has been portrayed in fictional Hollywood movies like "In dawns early light". It's a fictional scenario. Do not ever think that Hollywood represents reality. It doesn't.

This nuclear exchange renders all government and social programs neutral.

It zeros all government outlays, and thus risks severe public out-lash from the urban folk that live off the government handouts. It also renders the stock market, financial markets, and industrial base into squashed pablum.

An America that survives this attack would still have a very difficult time fighting any kind of global war. Many troops would need to be recalled as their support network of supplies would be rendered inert.

Any overseas military operations would be terribly exposed and subject to capture and destruction.

This scenario would cause America to retract it’s global empire building efforts and concentrate on repairing the American infrastructure. This scenario will result in a 25 year long retardation in the global world stage.

For this reason alone, this scenario is attractive to the rest of the world.

[3] A nuclear response.

This scenario is what might possibly happen when American armed military forces are employed in attacking a nation strongly in line with one of the global super-powers. This is a very ugly and nasty scenario.

This scenario is what would happen if the United States were to employ or dispatch American troops onto the soil of either Russia or China. It would be the result if American troops were to set foot on Taiwan. It would be what would happen if a "low yield" nuclear weapon were detonated anywhere in Asia.

It is what would happen if the United States launches a "low yield" nuclear weapon in Iran.

This response is a truly nasty response.

The entire East and West coast turns to desolate glass covered wasteland. The uneducated migrant folk from the South American nations then march up into the United States and start claiming territory as their own.

The American government is rendered inert.

After the strike, or more likely, the numerous strikes the United States will no longer be functional. Any government that exists will hardly be functional. Only the state governments will exist, and they will enact strong levels of independence from the Federal government.

If a federal government were still to exist, it would probably operate out of the Courthouses of West Virginia. And have little to no authority.

[4a] The Fuck-you Response.

This is a “lite” version of the “Fuck You” response. For, I personally believe that if we piss off the wrong nation, that they will come for America and flush it right down into the sewer. They don’t FUCKING CARE.

Wake the Fuck up!

Now for the last fifty years America has been pushing “democracy” as the reason for the imperial expansion. But it’s all a lie, and while many Americans might believe in it, the rest of the world does not.

They do not like it.

They just bide their time, and when the opportunity comes, they will bitch slap American in a most violent method.

America can only keep fighting all those proxy wars so long before there is some serious kick-back.

Yes. And when it comes to a nuclear equipped nation, they will not have the same kind of political restraints that Americans might not accept. DO NOT ASSUME THAT THE REST OF THE WORLD THINKS LIKE AMERICANS.

They do not.

This is a very bad scenario.

And would in fact, be what I would assume would happen within minutes of the United States entry into Asia of either physical troops, or a nuclear weapon of any size.

This scenario, as awful as it is, is only the first part of a full devastating strike. This scenario consists of three parts.

• Knock out of all military satellites.
• SLBM launch, five minutes to target and complete devastation of American coastal cities, and much of America’s nuclear deterrent capability. Followed by…
• ICBM launch. (No more than) Thirty minutes to target and complete obliteration of all America.

So, that image; that map shown above is only the first “punch” of a two-part KO punch. Now, we discuss the second part…

[4b] The second part of the Fuck-You response.

Now, if this scenario were to manifest, I dare say that the RS-28 Satan 2 ICBM’s and MIRVs would be called into service. As a result, it is quite possible that the United States might look something like this “love tap” scenario.

Here, we have the [4] Fuck You scenario broken down into two parts. The first is SLBM launches within five minutes of USA detonation of low yield nuclear weapons in Asia. Followed up with this punishing scenario.

But let me warn the reader about this. Of all the scenarios, including this one, there is a strong possibility that the nuclear exchange could be much, much worse. It could be global and turn all of the earth into a real cesspool. It could look a lot like this.

The Day After becomes a genuine horror film as its characters  begin to succumb to radiation poisoning, their hair and teeth falling  out as they shamble through scorched fields strewn with bloated animal  corpses and dead family dogs, swarming with flies. 

Befitting the deathly  pallor, Meyer imbues these scenes with classically gothic imagery: a  bell struck by an unseen hand wielding a brick summons survivors from  the crypts of their shelters; a lighthearted conversation between  Robards and Williams is interrupted by a bandaged woman sitting up into  frame and shrieking; a preacher gives a sermon inside the crater of a  church, a burned crucifix dangling behind him; a young woman sitting in  the pews begins suddenly bleeding from between her legs into her white  dress. 

A bit heavy-handed, maybe—but then, there’s nothing subtle about  apocalypse. And as the end title card reminds us, even this grisly  depiction is still “in all likelihood, less severe than the destruction  that would actually occur,”. 

- The Day After traumatized a generation with the horrors of nuclear war  

In this most horrible scenario, you would be lucky to die in the first few strikes. No one would want to live in the United States after this exchange.

And it would truly be horrible.

“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”  

-Einstein (Paraphrased.)

Just look at this map, and this map (I must add) is not nearly as bad as what a pissed-off Russian would do.

Yes. This is our possible future, post 2025.

Like the scene where Cullum’s farmer is given the laughable,  FEMA-sourced advice to just “scrape off” his irradiated topsoil, it’s in  moments like these that The Day After’s actual—and again,  sadly relevant—message makes itself known: Should we be  hit with  nuclear missiles, no one will really know what to do about it. Hell, if  it happens sooner rather than later, we won’t even have the cold comfort  of a president who can offer up some eloquently empty words. 

That’s why, watching it today, the most chilling aspect of The Day After  isn’t the bombs, or their grisly aftermath. It’s all the scenes leading  up to it, as people go about their lives with snatches of news  broadcasts overheard—and ignored—in the background reporting on some  tense, but relatively minute skirmish in Berlin. Even Lithgow’s  politically informed, astutely cynical intellectual laughs off the idea  of escalation, saying he has symphony tickets. The soldiers stationed  around Lawrence’s missile silo joke about nuclear war infringing on  their weekend fishing plans. Robards’ wife sees an alarmist special  bulletin, moans, and says she just wants to go to bed. Even as the world  teeters on the edge, Robards pauses to ask, to no one in particular,  “Do you understand any of this?” Throughout, the threat of cataclysmic  war remains a distant, inscrutable, headache-inducing hum, something to  be switched off as soon as it becomes too complicated to follow. If it  were made today, you could easily cut in shots of people paging  listlessly through Twitter.

 - The Day After traumatized a generation with the horrors of nuclear war   

I know that the reader cannot control the ideas, and the passions of the oligarchy that is aligned with the Marxist democrats in power, However, the reader should be aware that after 2025 +/- 2 years, the entire globe could completely change. With America reverting to a radioactive bronze-age existence.

It is with this sad, sad warning that I leave the reader.

 The  moment a nuclear bomb detonates, several forms of nuclear radiation  instantly permeate the environment. As this pulse of radiation surges  through the bodies of everyone who is outside, or in weakly insulated  buildings, it wreaks biological havoc at the molecular level. By  altering the structure of key cellular machinery and injuring DNA, the  radiation impairs the ability of cells to replicate and repair  themselves. A ground detonation of a ten-kiloton bomb in Times Square  would subject everyone between Murray Hill and Hell’s Kitchen, and from  32nd Street to the bottom of Central Park, to a potentially lethal dose  of radiation.
                    
Within  minutes to hours, most people exposed in these areas would begin to  show signs of acute radiation syndrome: nausea, headache, dizziness, and  vomiting. After several days to two weeks, new symptoms would emerge:  diarrhea, hair loss, fever, seizures, and bleeding in the mouth and  under the skin, which sometimes creates purple blotches on the body. In  the most severe cases, people would become emaciated, delirious, and  incapacitated. Most people with radiation sickness will die for one of  two reasons: because they no longer have enough immune cells to fight  off microbial infections, or because their digestive system is too  damaged to function properly.
                                        
The  radiation released instantaneously by an explosion is only a prelude to  a much more insidious and long-lived threat. Immediately after the  blast, a huge fireball would rise swiftly through the air and begin to  condense into a mushroom cloud, tinted red at first, then white. A  strong updraft and inflowing winds would suck soil and debris, already  bonded with radioactive particles released by the explosion, into the  cloud. Within 15 minutes, a portion of this radioactive dust — mostly  grains the size of salt or sand — would begin to fall directly on the  city. Within a day, some survivors exposed to the dust would begin to  experience itching and burning sensations; within two to three weeks,  lesions would begin to appear. Fallout that is inhaled or swallowed, or  that enters the body through a wound, would be even more dangerous: It  exposes internal organs to a continuous source of nuclear radiation,  damaging tissue in the same way as the initial pulse of radiation from  the explosion itself. 

 - This Is What a Nuclear Bomb Looks Like   

Nuclear notes & Conclusion

Nuclear war will devastate America for centuries.

If America is lucky, yes if it is lucky, America might revert to horse and buggy carriages as the primary means of conveyance. Medical treatments can revert as well. Leaving other nations first world status while America is marked on the map as “Keep Out – Dangerous”.

We do not know what the future holds, but here I try to look at what might manifest, given the historical norms with American politics. Given the historical norms, nuclear war is highly likely no matter what the politicians might pontificate.

I pray that this does not happen, but as time moves forward, it is becoming more and more likely each and every day. Most of the oligarchy that exists today has no idea of just how dark and black things can get.

They have raised the stakes of human existence sky-high, and when things tumble, they will crash with a thunderous roar.

They are oblivious and do not care. And at that, we can guarantee that nuclear Armageddon will most certainly destroy America.

Not Convinced?

For decades, the United States has taken China’s ballistic missile capability for granted, assessing it as a low-capability force with limited regional impact and virtually no strategic value. But on October 1, 2019 during a massive military parade celebrating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Beijing put the U.S., and the world, on notice that this assessment was no longer valid.

In one fell swoop, China may have nullified America’s strategic nuclear deterrent, the U.S. Pacific Fleet, and U.S. missile defense capability. Through its impressive display of new weapons systems, China has underscored the reality that while the United States has spent the last two decades squandering trillions of dollars fighting insurgents in the Middle East, Beijing was singularly focused on overcoming American military superiority in the Pacific. If the capabilities of these new weapons are taken at face value, China will have succeeded on this front…

One of the nations keenly observing the impact of the American RMA in  the Persian Gulf was China. Chinese military theorists studied how  Marshall adapted Ogarkov’s theories into an American version of RMA, and  responded with a Chinese adaptation, developing weapons specifically  intended to overcome American superiority in critical areas.

 These weapons became known as “shashoujian,” or “the Assassin’s Mac,” derived from the traditional Chinese way of describing a weapon of surprising power. “A shashoujian,” a contemporary Chinese military journal notes,  “is a weapon that has an enormous terrifying effect on the enemy and  that can produce an enormous destructive assault.” More importantly, the  modern Chinese concept of shashoujian envisions not a single weapon, but rather a system of weapons that combine to produce the desired effect. 

There’s more…

 Enter the DF-41, China’s ultimate shashoujian weapon.  A three-stage, road-mobile ICBM equipped with between six and 10  multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads, the  DF-41 provides China with a nuclear deterrent capable of surviving an  American nuclear first strike and delivering a nation-killing blow to  the United States in retaliation. The DF-41 is a strategic game changer,  allowing China to embrace the mutual assured destruction (MAD) nuclear  deterrence posture previously the sole purview of the United States and  Russia.

 In doing so, China has gained the strategic advantage over the U.S.  when it comes to competing power projection in the Pacific. Possessing a  virtually unstoppable A2/AD capability, Beijing is well positioned to  push back aggressively against U.S. maritime power projection in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits. 

Words from a time traveler

There’s a fellow by the name of John Titor that claimed to be from a future where scenario 4a & 4b took place. What he had to say was very interesting. Believe it or not. But it’s an interesting read.

They are;

Some Related Links

Russian Yu-71 Hypersonic Attack Aircraft (HAA)/’Nuke Glider’ and Yu-74 Ultra-Maneuverable Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) Nuclear Attack Threats: Can We Defend Against Them?

Russian Low-Observable/Stealth Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (and Possibly Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles?) Under Development: What it Means for Future Warfare and Geopolitics

Russian Low-Observable/Stealth Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (and Possibly Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles?) Under Development: What it Means for Future Warfare and Geopolitics

Hypersonic Missiles Being Developed by China and the United States for World War III (WWIII): Meet the WU-14 Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) and DARPA-Raytheon Tactical Boost Glide (TBG) Hypersonic Cruise Missile

Chinese Develop New ‘Ultra-Thin’, Lightweight ‘Tunable’ UHF Microwave Radar-Absorbing Stealth Material Cloaking Technology for Manned and Unmanned Combat Aircraft and Warships

Chinese YJ-18 (YingJi-18) Low-Flying Subsonic-to-Supersonic Anti-Ship Cruise Missile (ASCM): Aircraft Carrier Killer Going Operational

Chinese DF-21D ASBM (Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile): Will it Obsolete U.S. Aircraft Carriers?

Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) ‘Kill Weapon’ Flummoxes U.S. Navy

SHTF Related Index

This is a collection of my posts related to prepping, SHTF (Shit Hit The Fan), CWII (American Civil War 2), Fourth Turning (Strauss–Howe generational theory) and other posts related to the very sad and sorry tatters that America is today. Actually, I am a little stunned that I have written so much about these matters. But America today is very ill and there are things that really should be said.

Here are the posts.

SHTF and Related Index

Articles & Links

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