Tag: warning

American Conservative Sleepwalkers wading into the dark South China Sea

LDNR authorities have identified the chemical substances US PMCs have brought to the cities of Mariupol, Krasnyi Liman and Avdeevka: botulinum toxin and dibenzoxazepine.  These chemical weapon were brought over from the USA by USAF contracted aircraft and are now deployed by 120 US mercenaries.

-False flag aborted in the Ukraine.
Jabber, jabber, jabber from the war-mongers in America about China and Russia. These people are deranged lunatics. And they are somehow delirious believing their invincibility and superiority. They have funded an enormous war machine, and they are pushing, pushing, and pushing towards WAR!
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Just this week Congress passed a $7 billion dollar anti-China propaganda campaign to villainize China and to prevent Chinese news from ever reaching America. To put this in perspective, the 2020 budget of NASA is $20 billion dollars. So it’s roughly one third of the entire space budget of America. That’s how serious the USA is determined to garner the population on a war-footing.
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Why bother? Americans already consider China the enemy. video 5MB
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Fools.
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Here’s an interesting discussion in the American Conservative circles discussing a war with China. It’s illuminating. Not only on the points of view being bantered about, but the lack of understanding on the true realities, and the absolutely horrific consequences involved.
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Read and be enlightened.
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Top American conservatives including AT’s David Goldman recently debated the risks of preparing for war with China

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by David P. Goldman
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Whether the United States should prepare for war with China – and thereby make war almost inevitable – was the matter of a verbal brawl at one of the largest gatherings of American conservatives, the National Conservatism Conference in Orlando, Florida, from October 31 to November 2.

The same debate is ongoing in American opinion journals, where the war party is represented by the neo-conservatives of the American Enterprise Institute – Hal Brands, Dan Blumenthal, Gary Schmitt and Michael Mazza – and former National Security Adviser John Bolton.

I was a participant in the debate.

It would have been unseemly to have a polite exchange in a hotel ballroom a few miles from Disney World about the desirability of killing millions of people in a nuclear exchange.

So I wasn’t polite.

Although the arguments on both sides are well known, the Orlando debate merited publication of a lengthy edited transcript, for two reasons.

First, the exchange between former Trump adviser and war-hawk Michael Pillsbury on one side, and former Trump National Security Council official Michael Anton and this writer on the other, set the issues in poignant relief.

Second, the audience of conservative activists, the opinion and organizational leaders of the Republican Party, repudiated the war party by a margin of about three to one, by my informal poll of the audience.

Of the informal guess-timation of participants;

75% of the Conservative opposed a war with China.
25% of the Conservatives were neocons in favor of a war with China.

The American right doesn’t want war with China.

That doesn’t mean war won’t come. Christopher Clark’s magisterial account of the outbreak of World War I, The Sleepwalkers, recounts the intellectual corruption and grandiose irresponsibility of the statesmen who stumbled into World War I.

It’s an old story: If one side mobilizes, the other has to mobilize or be defenseless; if one side believes the other is likely to mobilize, it must do so first. Clark proved – contrary to the usual Anglophile account – that it was the Russian mobilization, urged by the French, that started the war.

By the same token, if the United States attempts to force the issue of Taiwan’s independence, China will pre-empt this by seizing the island. If the United States takes military measures – stationing troops on the island, mining the Taiwan Straits – China will have to consider pre-emptive action.

It’s August 1914 all over again, played as farce rather than tragedy. The European powers had existential interests to defend; the United States has nothing to lose but the perception that it can project its power anywhere in the world, including China’s coasts.

The American military wasted US$6 trillion and thousands of lives in misguided nation-building campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, while China built up a massive high-tech defense in and around its coasts.

This weakened America’s strategic position decisively.

The blunderers who vitiated America’s defense will risk war simply to save their reputations. The war hawks have shown scant interest in rising to China’s technological ambition, which presents a real challenge to America’s leading position in the world.

But they will roll the dice on war over issues that do not bear directly on American security.

America is in NO STATE to take on a war against the combined forces of Russia and China.

Compared to them, the sleepwalkers of 1914 were exemplars of enlightened statesmanship.

Transcript

There follows my edit of the transcript of the conference session on China. I have included all the points of substance, leaving out the ancillary discussion in the interest of space.

Video of the event will be available at the conference website.

Pillsbury: The Hundred-Year Marathon [Pillsbury’s best-selling book] was translated by the Chinese military. No royalties, but they had a little ceremony for me. They make fun of Biden. They say Biden is plagiarizing, it’s the Trump administration policy.

Trump loves to say, if Hillary Clinton had won the election, China would be surpassing us now. But it’s not going to happen on my watch. If you’re close watchers of Joe Biden’s TV interviews, four months ago, he said the exact same words.

China wants to surpass us, but it’s not going to happen on my watch. The Chinese reaction to that is to laugh. Because they don’t expect it to come that soon. But when they do surpass us, I think the level of arrogance they showed today is going to be something that we wish for.

When they do believe that they’re superior to us in a number of ways. We will wish that it was 1947 when the Soviet Cold War began, and we did was, we created the CIA by legislation. We created the Defense Department. We created the National Security Council.

There’s not a single new institution in our government to deal with China. I think there should be.

Goldman: We will spend these next few days complaining about how terrible things are. I hear very little discussion of what we need to do about it. My argument is very simple. We’ve done it before. We did it during the Reagan administration. We did it during the Kennedy administration, we did it under Franklin Roosevelt.

We need to rebuild the American economy and we can only do that with a visionary strategy that galvanizes the imagination of Americans like the Kennedy moon-shot, the Reagan SDI.

The numbers show that the Trump policy towards China was a catastrophic failure. We’re importing now more than 30% more from China than we did in January 2018, when Trump imposed tariffs.

And as for technology suppression?

China’s built 70% of the world’s 5G networks and is proceeding to build the applications on top of that, which constitute the Fourth Industrial Revolution. We can do better than China. We’re better equipped to innovate than China.

But we’re not because we’re crushed by a technocratic elite which has sucked the marrow out of the United States economy and generated enormous wealth doing things that, for the most part, harm us. Nothing short of an intervention by the federal government, namely an industrial policy, will turn that around.

That’s not a classically liberal view of things. Industrial policies are dangerous. They lead to rent-seeking behavior, corruption and too much state power. But that’s what you do in a war, and we’ve got the economic equivalent of a war going on.

The thing that worries me the most is the knuckleheads who spent $6 trillion on forever wars and gutted our military by frittering away our resources. If we’d spent a 10th of that on high-tech weaponry, we wouldn’t be worrying about China’s hyper-velocity missiles or anything else like that.

They will steer us into a confrontation with China that will lead to a war that nobody can win.

John Bolton is the most dangerous lunatic roaming the streets of the United States right now.

If you try to force the independence of Taiwan, any Chinese government that wants to rule China will use military action, Communist or not.

The Chinese Communist Party is Communist the same way the mafia is Catholic. They take it very seriously. But it has very little practical importance for running a Chinese empire. You have to suppress rebel provinces. The only thing we can do with Taiwan is to maintain strategic ambiguity, raise the price of the Chinese taking it by force, which we have no means to stop at this point short of a nuclear war.

We should dissuade them from doing it, maintain Taiwanese democracy and walk the fine line.

John Bolton (on the other hand) would call the question, and that gets a lot of people killed.

John Bolton

If you don’t believe me, read Admiral Stavridis’  marvelous thriller 2034. Spoiler alert: We blow up a bunch of their cities. They blow up a bunch of our cities and we’re back to square one.

Now let me talk about the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is what’s really critical here. Wars are not won by stealing data, they are not won by spies, they are won by logistics in depth and the willingness to prevail. The first industrial revolution began when James Watt sold his first commercial steam engine in 1776.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution began when China responded to the Covid-19 pandemic by using artificial intelligence applied to massive data sets to predict potential outbreaks. They are now proceeding to roll out the technologies associated with this. This is the real science fiction stuff we’re talking about – 5G permitting groups of industrial robots to communicate on the shop floor and program themselves.

Smart logistics allow individual objects to be tracked from mine to factory to warehouse to ship back to warehouse to truck loaded onto autonomous vehicles and controlled all the way. It allows AI servers to optimize urban traffic and match every passenger and package to a conveyance.

It allows sensors at the base of soybean plants to communicate with drones that deliver fertilizer and pesticides and direct autonomous tractors to harvest them. We’re talking about an explosion of productivity like that of the first and second industrial revolutions.

The main thing the Chinese stole from us was the great idea of the Reagan Revolution that you can have dual-use technologies, which both give you button guns and butter. They foster civilian productivity. They pay for themselves 10 times over, just like the Apollo program did, just like the Strategic Defense Initiative did.

Every single invention of the digital age. No exceptions started with the DARPA project. They were all funded by the Department of Defense.

The Chinese have stolen the American approach. They want to be Reagan in the Cold War against the sclerotic Soviet Union. Now, they’re not as good at it as we are.

My argument is we have nothing to learn; we only need to remember. We know all these things because we’ve done every single one of them.

We only have to dust off the old ideas and get the band back together, and what I put to you is that the conservative movement needs a part of a positive program, a set of solutions to galvanize the American people, capture their imagination, as Kennedy did when he pointed to the Moon, as Reagan did when he promised to defend the homeland against enemy ballistic missiles.

We need a positive view. We need a can-do approach, and we need to found it on the proven track record of the United States of America in pioneering the future for the world.

Anton: I’m just going to go through a couple of historical points to put this in context. In 1842, the Chinese ceded Hong Kong island to the British in perpetuity – in perpetuity. The Chinese regime at the time of Imperial China greatly resented it. And that resentment carried over through Republican China to Communist China, National, etc.

Why is this important?

This is something that was a thorn in the side of the succession of China as a civilization, not of one regime, not of the communist regime of China for 150 years. It bothered them very greatly. They look forward to the day when they could get it back. They were patient and they got it back.

Without conflict, without much of a struggle, with just some gnashing of teeth and hair, pulling and sighing and crying by the British, but they got it back.

A couple of quotes.

“To win without fighting is best.”

Some of you may remember recognize this.

The second one is:

“To destroy the enemy is not the acme of skill; to capture what you want from the enemy, whether that’s a city, a fortress, a ship, an army, that is the acme of skill.”

Those are both from Sun Tzu, a Chinese classic written about 200 BC. This very well encapsulates the Chinese strategy, I would say, with regard to Hong Kong and with regard to Taiwan.

Taiwan is a similar thorn in the psyche of China.

This would be the case, no matter what the regime in Beijing were. It could be, you know, the neocons’ fantasy of a liberal democratic China, and they would still really care about getting Taiwan back. It’s central to the regime’s conception of its territorial national integrity…

One very firm demand of the Chinese government on the international community is Taiwan can never be a full member of an international organization for which statehood is a member and as a requirement, and they make it very plain that they’ll go to war over that.

They’re very, very clear about this.

An Article five guarantee in the NATO charter, for instance, that is a treaty requirement that the United States has got to go to a nuclear war in defense of a place. [Our agreement with Taiwan] is a commitment of sorts. The full extent of it and what it legally obligates us to do is a bit ambiguous compared to an actual mutual defense treaty signed by both sides.

This comes up a lot, especially lately, because we are told constantly that crisis is brewing in the Taiwan Straits.

China’s been patient.

Patience may be running out.

Maybe they’ll try to do something soon.

What we’ve seen now is a pretty dramatic shift toward I still have a bipartisan consensus on China, but now it’s a bipartisan consensus to sort of beat up on them rhetorically not to take any actual action as far as I can see, except some of the things we talked about.

But what, where that rhetoric leads is, you know, we’re obligated to do something about Taiwan and it would be a stain on the national honor and so on and so forth.

And so if something happens, we’ve got to get into a fight.

China’s preference is still to take Taiwan without fighting for it. Time is on their side. Some are saying, some people who claim to know, are saying, Oh no, no, they’re getting impatient and they’re going to … they’re going to do something shortly.

I just have no basis to evaluate that.

But based on historical precedent, I think the Chinese would certainly like to do exactly what they did with regard to Hong Kong, tipped the balance of strategic power, economic power, political power so much against the possibility of continued Taiwanese independence that public opinion in Taiwan comes to accept the notion that we just have to make the best deal we can make.

And then you win without fighting.

You know, a nation of 24 million can only have so big a military and especially against a nation of 1.4 billion … China’s been building up [its military] for decades. The Taiwan-American combination has not caught up either in terms of sheer numbers and certainly not in terms of technology.

So that’s a way of winning without fighting if you have two or three decades to build up so much force on one side that the other side just looks at it and goes, “I can’t win that fight,” then the fight doesn’t happen unless the other side is delusional or crazy brave.

And the last point I will raise, I just want you to think about this.

I’ll tell you the last time a United States aircraft carrier was sunk. It was the battle of Midway, the USS Yorktown, June of 1942. Actually, we did lose an aircraft carrier last year, not a fleet carrier, a smaller carrier, you know why?

Because it burned in San Diego Harbor and the navy couldn’t figure out how to put out the fire.

USS Bonhomme Richard. A compete loss.

And they had to scrap the ship, the USS Bonhomme Richard. Look it up.

The navy crashed four ships in 2017. Read the official reports from the Department of the Navy and the Congressional investigations on those crashes. They were marvels of esoteric writing to try to dodge the cause of what happened, while somehow revealing it between the lines.

If you’re Taiwan and you’re counting on the United States to defend you, what conclusion did you draw from Afghanistan this summer? Did you get the conclusion that here is a great power that knows what it’s doing, that keeps its promises, and that can execute the things that it wants to do?

American military flee Afghanistan just like they fled Vietnam.

Plausibly, if not certainly, the Chinese have had an ability to sink a fleet carrier for the last decade.

And now… ask yourself how the nation would take it.

Right now, there seems to be a massive amount of group think. We’re only allowed to think about this one way. Only one way.

Nobody is allowed to bring up any of the counterfactuals or any, you know, any other outlying considerations.

And when policy is made on that basis, horrible blunders and catastrophes result.

So before the United States commits itself to some policy or before we, whoever we broadly understood as being in this room are right of center conservatives, intellectuals, nationalists want the best for our country, who want the best for our military, who want to maintain our alliance structure with credibility.

But before we commit ourselves to a policy, are we in this room?

Take a stand in favor of X or against Y and make recommendations that other people may read and listen to.

We should be at least thinking about all of these considerations and, in my view, the conversation as it has. I don’t mean this conversation. I mean, the broad conversation on Taiwan has taken insufficient account of the things that I mentioned and others.

Goldman: The most important fact about any country is its people. Taiwan, according to the CIA World Factbook, has the lowest birth rate of any political entity in the world … China does have a demographic crisis, but Japan, South Korea and especially Taiwan are much worse.

So if you simply. Kick the can down the road, maintain strategic ambiguity. What the Chinese will get if they eventually get Taiwan is a bunch of old people. It’s simply, in my view, not worth having a nuclear war over.

The ideal situation is to maintain the status quo as long as possible. Anything else means a war, and the possible loss of American cities. I ultimately don’t care about China. I care about the United States of America. I’m a nationalist and I want what’s best for us.

We can’t abandon Taiwan because it makes us look weak and we lose important economic advantages and leverage against China. We can’t force the issue and start a war.

The Chinese have hundreds of anti-ship missiles.

Michael Pillsbury and I have something in common. He for many years, and I briefly, worked for a great man at the Pentagon, Andrew Marshall, head of the Office of Net Assessment.

Andy told me in 2013 that the Chinese missiles could (and would) sink an American carrier.

Anton: I think the core answer, it is the best outcome is the status quo for as long as possible because any attempt to change the status quo will be worse than the status quo.

There are only two alternatives to the status quo.

One is Taiwanese independence. Well, Taiwanese independence will start a war. Taiwan becoming part of China would be net bad for us. Obviously, if it becomes a part of China through military action, that’s worse than if they just make a deal.

So for as long as the status quo can be maintained, that’s, unfortunately, the best possible scenario. And I just say unfortunately, because it’s an inherently unstable scenario, and it’s also by its very definition, it’s not permanent. The status quo isn’t going to last forever, so let’s stretch it out for as long as we can, and that’s unfortunately about the best we can do.

Pillsbury: President Trump once asked me, How did we used to defend Taiwan? He saw me as the in-house historian who knew all this ancient stuff. Nobody else in the room knew.

So I finally spoke up.

We used to have atom bombs there. We used to have them attached to jet fighters ready to go to hit the mainland with the Chinese made sure that Kissinger took them out in ’74. We used to have a treaty with a garrison and 30,000 troops and a war planning unit underground in Taipei.

Now it’s an art center and a Mongolian barbecue restaurant …

So what do the paranoid group in charge today say when they hear someone like Michael Anton say, oh, we can’t get it in a war, you know, they think that this is American deception.

Of course, the Americans are going to get into a war, which is why they’ve been increasing the deployments and we are moving closer to a nuclear war with China.

It’s not just me saying this, quite a few other people inside the government are saying this as well.

The head of our strategic command in charge of all our nuclear forces, he’s given two interviews. He says the Chinese are engaging in a strategic breakout of their nuclear weapons, including ICBMs, which they are doubling or tripling.

This is the four-star admiral who commands our nuclear forces.

Quite a few other people are talking this way – very different from Michael Anton. They’re more like Churchill. Bill Buckley, the long tradition of Americans like Barry Goldwater …

So I’m going to have to go home to Washington.

So yes, I went to the conservatism conference. A bunch of the people there on the panel said surrender Taiwan. We don’t want to go to war with China. That’s appeasement. Michael and I should clarify his remarks in my humble opinion.

Anton: If they can sink an aircraft carrier and if the only way to stop an invasion of Taiwan is to deploy the forward-deployed aircraft carrier…

…and Yokosuka…

and maybe send one or two others out there, which as far as I know, is the only way for the United States to effectively defend the island if the Chinese decide to invade it and they sink one of these 12 to 14 billion dollar behemoths with 6,500 men on board.

What’s the US response going to be at that point?

Pillsbury: Well, we could turn to you and say, I surrender.

Anton: What would you do if you were either the secretary of defense, the president, the head of a Pacific Command and sitting there in Pearl Harbor?

Pillsbury: I’ve been working on this for 30 years. More recently, the US has gotten a much more detailed picture of what it could do.

Exactly which targets inside China could be struck.

Exactly which targets inside China could be struck?

What would happen the first morning?

…

New York “concrete jungle” cleared of the underbrush.

More and more work is being done on both sides about how a war would happen and both the Chinese and American military have come to a conclusion.

It would be a long war.

Okay, maybe two or three years – I haven’t read.

There’s a brand new book by the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Pentagon under Trump [Elbridge Colby’s The Strategy of Denial, featured in a June 2021 Asia Times webinar].

There’s a  whole chapter on how to recapture Taiwan after it’s been partially taken by the Chinese military.

This is the state of the art thinking.

There’s a new piece of legislation, the Taiwan Defense Act … They say, please, Pentagon, give us a plan for how to avoid a fait accompli taking place on Taiwan. The Pentagon is drafting their response.

We’re moving closer to a war.

It doesn’t help for you to tell conservatives, oh, if we lose an aircraft carrier, what are we going to do then? What would Winston Churchill say?

Goldman: What, Winston Churchill? Just before the fall of Singapore in 1942, according to Andrew Roberts, Winston Churchill said in the event of war “the Japanese would fold up like the Italians because there were the wops of the Far East.”

Winston Churchill, when it came to Asia, was an absolute idiot, and we bailed him out. He was as stupid as Nicholas II who lost the Russian fleet at Tsushima [in 1905].

Bridge Colby has been a dear friend for 20 years who is now hallucinating about what the United States might do to take Taiwan back.

This is crazy.

Anton: Following the logic of what you said – because I haven’t read whatever STRATCOM put out – I  have read certain analyses: not even analysis. There’s speculations that the Chinese are increasing the size of the nuclear arsenal in this underground network of tunnels that we can’t follow and so on.

The official estimate that we have some confidence in is that the Chinese nuclear arsenal is at least 300 warheads, right?

None of which have to be air-dropped anymore.

That means all [delivered by] ICBM hyper-velocity AI-guided missiles. And if you read their doctrine, unlike ours, they formally take a doctrine of minimal deterrence.

That is to say, they have no kind of nuclear warfighting doctrine at all.

They just have city killers.

And if they feel that the territorial integrity of China or the survival of the state is at stake, they’re willing to use those 300 missiles or some portion of them on American cities. The largest 300 American cities would be blasted into radioactive rubble.

The largest surviving American city would be New Bedford, Massachusetts. With it's five gas stations, and two strip malls. -MM

In fact, once as I’m sure you remember in the far-off year of 1996 on one of the more tense moments in the Taiwan Strait, a Chinese general was quoted as saying, “I don’t think the Americans will do anything at the end of the day. They won’t want to trade Los Angeles for Taipei.”

Their nuclear arsenal is now triple what it was.

And they’re going on a more offensive posture with nuclear weapons and this thing ends up going to nuclear war.

How that fits into the seeming “recommendation” you just gave, I have to admit, being somewhat dim, I don’t see because it would seem to make the danger greater.

And I also would ask: What do you think the American people’s response to losing a fleet carrier would be?

My own estimate is it would be the greatest psychological shock we’ve had in a generation, arguably greater than 9/11.

Unquestionably, getting one single city nuked would be the greatest psychological shock the American nation has ever had in its history.

So how do we deal with something like that, given that Taiwan is orders of magnitude more important to China, and they’re willing to do that over this, as they have said, than it is to us?

From a Chinese point of view, Taiwan is like the US "Statue of Liberty". Destroy it and the Chinese would sacrifice their first born in revenge.

From an American point of view Taiwan is a news item that fits in the bottom of a news feed. Nestled somewhere between a Viagra ad and a cute cat video. -MM

Well, I’m going to be the dove here and say that it’s possible to avoid a nuclear war, whether it be over Taiwan or any other place.

I’d kind of prefer to do that.

If that makes me an outlier, I’m at least I’m in good company with that other famous nuclear dove named Ronald Reagan.

Goldman: [to the audience] Who volunteers to be in the first city that gets nuked? Any takers?

No. Not me!

Pillsbury: One wonderful book shocked the hell out of me. It came out of the Hoover Institution 1962. It’s called Wall Street and Hitler. It’s by a professor who went through the Nuremberg war trials after the war.

  • I didn’t know Henry Ford’s photo was in Hitler’s office.
  • I didn’t know the Nazis gave prizes to different American businessmen.
  • I didn’t know that the Nazis knew they lacked synthetic oil production and that they got the technology from America.

It’s a long book and it goes to in great detail what Wall Street was willing to do even as late as 1938-1939. We had a huge debate about getting involved in Europe … A big group in our country in ’38, ’39 wanted to surrender to Hitler – for lack of a better word; surrender.

Anton: What are they trying to do? I mean, the Soviet Union had to be contained because the Soviet Union was very explicitly an expansionist power.

We know the Chinese would like to expand and take Taiwan.

I’m not aware of the Chinese wanting to expand and take other people’s territory.

They want to exert dominance in East Asia and in the western Pacific, and some of that dominance they will exert in ways that will be deleterious to American interests.

That’s irrespective of our ability to be able to prevent and stop that. But I think there are certain things we could probably be doing better that could push back against some of those influences. But it’s not as if unless, you know, Michael Pillsbury could tell me differently.

Like the Chinese after Taiwan, they’re going to invade South Korea and they’re going to invade Japan, and then they’re going to invade Vietnam.

I don’t know. I don’t get the sense of that from them, nor in the sources that I read. Granted, I can’t read Mandarin. They don’t say that they want to do that.

Pillsbury: Specifically, specifically on Japan and in India … the Chinese think this is part of the key.

They hope the Americans don’t do it.

The Japanese stick to 1% of their GDP on defense, which is very, very low. Maybe that will double to 2% over the coming years.

That’s an alarm sign to the Chinese.

The Indians want to. They’re fiercely independent. The British poured poison in their ears as they left that the Americans are going to be a new colonial power.

You know, we don’t have a treaty with them. So we’ve got a long way with the Indians. We have quite a few military exercises … So slowly, we’re improving our military cooperation with India, other countries in the region.

Trump picked up the idea of the Quad as a magic word. Japanese say they invented it. Biden attacked Trump. You don’t, you know, you’re not seeking help from our allies. I think it was not true.

But the Quad, even under Biden, is starting to increase its consultations, mainly about China. So things are moving in the direction of your question.

Some videos describing what is not being said

It’s like a discussion over tea and crackers. Oh “Taiwan is sort of important to the Chinese, well we can convince them…” In your fucking wet dreams. The Chinese no longer has any tolerance for the United States BULLSHIT. Just like Putin has.  These jackasses have no idea who they are dealing with.

I am gonna show you all.

History

Burned into the minds and soul of China. If you all think that China will allow an invasion by any one for any reason, you are very, VERY mistaken. They will rip apart your cities, gut your nations, and then burn it to the ground. They are a serious nation that does not play games.

Atrocities by the Japanese occupation forces 1937. video 6MB

Actual photos, actual sound recordings. Nasty shit. video 11MB

Atrocities by the Japanese inflicted on the Chinese. video 20MB

The Chinese are not individualists. they fight for their community! video 6MB

Defense of Shanghai. video 10MB

Chinese in the Korean war. Video 11MB

Modern Chinese Military

Serious. Dangerous. Well equipped. Superbly trained. video 3MB

Very dangerous. Not a music video. look at the equipment. video 6MB

You all think that American military can airlift and sea transport forces into Chinese waters safely to fight this formidable army? video 3MB

Reread the dialog

They are talking about a “long drawn out war” with China.

What would actually happen?

  • The moment a war starts, the USA GDP will fall to under 50% of what it is now. And that is just if there is another “regional police action”. Not a full-borne war. A full on war, would collapse the GDP to a fraction of what it is now. Perhaps in the single digits. Think 2% to 6%.
  • As such, inflation would skyrocket, and the value of the USD would approach zero. Think $25,000 for a can of Pepsi. That’s pretty pricy even for you Pepsi lovers out there.
  • 99% of all medicines used in the United States come from China. How is America going to deal with providing hospitals medications, and supplies? That means ZERO MEDICINE. When a full 65% of the American population is on some kind of medicine, and you take that away… whether pain medicine, anti-depression medicine, heart or high blood pressure medicine, anti-biotics, aspirin, tums stomach medicine… what will happen? My guess is “Zombie apocalypse”.
  • How are the people going to react to all this? Bare store shelves? Insane prices for gas and heating oil? Electricity? And periodic internet if any? They will be very frustrated, angry and fearful. And they all will have lots and lots of guns…
  • America is a mess domestically. You cannot isolate the long drawn out fighting and overlook how it will affect the domestic population.

America is a mess domestically. video 3MB

And…

  • Any war with China is a war against Russia and China together. There is no fucking way that America is able to fight TWO (x2) above-peer military forces, let alone one. The result would be the destruction of ALL 13 core aircraft carriers, all major naval bases and staging locations.
  • How will the American public react to that.
  • And knowing so…

Conclusion

…America would “push the big red nuclear button”. But it would be too late. American cites would already be rubble.

Funny how NO ONE is addressing this very clear and always present danger. My guess is that they are all collectively idiots of the lowest caliber. And I am being generous.

Consider this memo to all the employees at McDonald’s.

Do you want more?

You can find more articles related to this in my latest index; A New Beginning. And in it are elements of the old, some elements regarding the transition, and some elements that look towards the future.

New Beginnings 2

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The big secret; America is unable to wage a war with peer capable enemies

It's true, and as time goes on it appears that America is just the big bad neighborhood bully that everyone is afraid of, and that no one ever stands up to. That is until one day...

This is a pretty damning and frightening title, don’t you think? Well, it’s true and it’s accurate. But you won’t ever see anyone be so absolutely blunt as MM here. This isn’t salacious and eye catching as some kind of “click bait” for “doom porn”. Never the less, it’s a real and serous issue. And we are talking about it here, simply because the “drums of war” are beating loudly inside of America.

American war drums are beating loudly.

 #7  ·   

It's a shame that everyone is China bashing these days, and all of that is based on the USA government controlled press. 

If anyone were to do some research on the subject of China's claim to sovereignty over these South China Sea Islands, then they would quickly agree with China's stance. 

However, almost all are like "LindaLou" who watched "some" of a morning program "Inside China" and immediately made up his/her mind that China was bad and should be condemned for standing up for their rights. 

If this were the USA, making these claims, then ALL of the pandering USA citizens would be following the government press and saying "YES, YES, YES". 

The citizens of the USA should be very mindful of the fact that you're being manipulated to believe whatever the government wants you to believe. 

Ever watched "1984" ?
Listen to me.
.
Please.
.

America is not able, and is not capable, of fighting either Russia, or China on their territory. And would suffer catastrophic losses at a horrific level. Probably one that would result in the absolute collapse of the country (the entire United States as a nation) to a point where it is completely unrecognizable afterwards.

And you know, many, many people are starting to wake up to this fact. Even the most deluded sheeple. Some Americans. Maybe in numbers as high as 1% are scratching their heads and asking… what? You want to fight?

Why?

You're not suggesting that taking out China would be as easy, are you? 

I guarantee you that the US cannot defeat China. We are no longer the world's leading super power and, in fact, we're on the verge of becoming #3. 

China is #1 and we're close to coming in behind Russia. 

#18  ·

Any of the following areas of American provocation would result in the nuclear detonation upon American cities…

      • China over Taiwan.
      • China over Tibet.
      • China over Hong Kong.
      • China over Xinjiang.
      • China over the South China Sea.
      • Russia over the Ukraine.

The American military planners are aware of this fact. And so they have been conducting all sorts of studies, and war games, to find solutions where America would win a war again either Russia, China or both simultaneously.

They can’t find ANY.

Many in the know, believe America has two options when it comes to  winning a world war against China and Russia. Also, what most agree on  is the fact that America cannot win a conventional war against either  power, or both. 

-  Can America Win World War III? A Critical Analysis

Of course, because everyone is “dancing around it” and refuses to look at the issue “face to face” the actual study results (studies… many) are coded in euphemisms. Instead of saying that the United States military was wiped off the face of the globe, the studies say…

 "...there were challenges and difficulties that were encountered..."

Instead of saying that all the United States carriers were non-functional after three days, the reports read…

"...the Navy needs to invest money to improve defensive capabilities in a new and contentious environment...".

Instead of saying that half of the expensive and elaborate high cost weapons and equipment were no longer operable, the reports stated…

"...challenges in training must be addressed..."

These euphemisms have become the “New Speak” of American Imperial Policy. As this quote outlays…

"Question: So you think that the United States can no longer be called a democracy?

"Answer: Democratic countries do not engage in blackmail and threats against other sovereign states, do not interfere in their internal affairs. They do not violate international law, do not use military force and economic sanctions bypassing the UN. They do not trample on human rights or restrict freedom of speech on their territory and abroad. They do not try to use racism of all stripes to solve internal problems, nor do they lure extremists and terrorists to their side for geopolitical purposes. They do not allow transnational corporations to interfere in the work of the government, imposing their own interests on the country and society, much less block the legitimate head of state in social networks and mass media. In democratic countries, the administration that came to power does not disavow the decisions of its predecessors simply because there has been a personal antagonism between them."

But a "democratic country" is whatever America defines it as--at any given moment!

America is just like Humpty Dumpty in Alice in Wonderland: “When I use a word ... it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less."

Torture is Enhanced Interrogation.
Coup D'etats are Regime Change.
Kill Lists are a Disposition Threat Matrix.
Wars of Aggression are Wars of Choice (or Pre-emptive kinetic military action).

Ignorance is Strength....

As a former high-level Bush Regime official boasted, “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”

Welcome to the American Rules-Based Order.

-Posted by: ak74 | May 4 2021 23:21 utc | 30

And this use of euphemisms has been seriously misinterpreted by the American leadership elite who mistakenly believe that they can fight either or both Russia and China simultaneously and win in any conflict. And here you have Metallicman saying that this is simply not true.

Fifty years of fighting small, lightly armed military, in under-developed nations that rely on obsolete technology and who, at best engage in Guerilla Warfare  should not be considered the same thing as fighting a determined, skilled, peer capable military in Asia.

Well, this is well understood.

But whether or not American military is able to fight a war is not a concern to the bureaucracy in Washington DC. Whether they are able to profit from the threat of war is. And thus we have this curious article…

The following is an article titled “US ‘Gets Its Ass Handed To It’ In Wargames: Here’s A $24 Billion Fix “

By   Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. on March 07, 2019 at 5:53 PM And of course, all credit to the author, it was edited to fit this venue.

US ‘Gets Its Ass Handed To It’ In Wargames: Here’s A $24 Billion Fix

Warships sink. Bases burn. F-35s die on the runway. Can $24 billion a year — 3.3 % of the Pentagon budget — fix the problem?

WASHINGTON: The US keeps losing, hard, in simulated wars with Russia and China. Bases burn. Warships sink. But we could fix the problem for about $24 billion a year, one well-connected expert said, less than four percent of the Pentagon budget.

Easy-peasy, lemon-squeezy.

“In our games, when we fight Russia and China,” RAND analyst David Ochmanek said this afternoon, “blue gets its ass handed to it.”

In other words, in RAND’s wargames, which are often sponsored by the Pentagon, the US forces — colored blue on wargame maps — suffer heavy losses in one scenario after another and still can’t stop Russia or China — red — from achieving their objectives, like overrunning US allies.

No, it’s not a Red Dawn nightmare scenario where the Commies conquer Colorado.

But losing the Baltics or Taiwan would shatter American alliances, shock the global economy, and topple the world order the US has led since World War II.

Hey! Boys and Girls! I've got news for you all. The US no longer leads the world. It just thinks it does. The American Leadership shill haven't read the reports yet. -MM

Body Blows & Head Hits

How could this happen, when we spend over $700 billion a year on everything from thousand-foot-long nuclear-powered aircraft carriers to supersonic stealth fighters?

Well, it turns out US superweapons have a little too much Achilles in their heels.

“In every case I know of,” said Robert Work, a former deputy secretary of defense with decades of wargaming experience, “the F-35 rules the sky when it’s in the sky, but it gets killed on the ground in large numbers.”

Even the hottest jet has to land somewhere.

But big airbases on land and big aircraft carriers on the water turn out to be big targets for long-range precision-guided missiles.

Once an American monopoly, such smart weapons are now a rapidly growing part of Russian and Chinese arsenals — as are the long-range sensors, communications networks, and command systems required to aim them.

So, as potential adversaries improve their technology, “things that rely on sophisticated base infrastructure like runways and fuel tanks are going to have a hard time,” Ochmanek said. “Things that sail on the surface of the sea are going to have a hard time.”

That’s why the 2020 budget retires the carrier USS Truman decades early and cuts two amphibious landing ships, as we’ve reported. 

It’s also why the Marine Corps is buying the jump-jet version of the F-35, which can take off and land from tiny, ad hoc airstrips, but how well they can maintain a high-tech aircraft in low-tech surroundings is an open question.

While the Air Force and Navy took most of the flak today at this afternoon’s Center for a New American Security panel on the need for “A New American Way of War.” the Army doesn’t look too great, either.

Its huge supply bases go up in smoke as well, Work and Ochmanek said. Its tank brigades get shot up by cruise missiles, drones, and helicopters because the Army largely got rid of its mobile anti-aircraft troops, a shortfall it’s now hastening to correct.

And its missile defense units get overwhelmed by the sheer volume of incoming fire.

“I think it’s unanimous from all the soldiers involved that we got this one right,” said the Army’s project manager for the Future Tactical Unmanned Aerial System. Manned aircraft, FARA and FLRAA, are also moving out sharply.

- Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.

“If we went to war in Europe, there would be one Patriot battery moving, and it would go to Ramstein. And that’s it,” Work growled. “We have 58 Brigade Combat Teams, but we don’t have anything to protect our bases, so what different does it make?”

Worst of all, Work and Ochmanek said, the US doesn’t just take body blows, it takes a hard hit to the head as well.

Its communications satellites, wireless networks, and other command-and-control systems suffer such heavy hacking and jamming that they are, in Ochmanek’s words, “suppressed, if not completely shattered.”

The US has wargamed cyber and electronic warfare in field exercises, Work said, but the simulated enemy forces tend to shut down US networks so effectively that nothing works and nobody else gets any training done.

“Whenever we have an exercise and the red force really destroys our command and control, we stop the exercise,” Work said, instead of trying to figure out how to keep fighting when your command post gives you nothing but blank screens and radio static.

The Chinese call this “system destruction warfare,” Work said: They plan to “attack the American battle network at all levels, relentlessly, and they practice it all the time.”

Our Navy “gets its ass handed to it” in one scenario examining a fight against China over Taiwan and the Air Force “is going to lose fast.” 

In short, if Biden rashly sends the military to Taiwan’s defense, he could be sending us to our greatest naval defeat in our history. 

If the president’s military advisers convince him to attack military targets on the mainland, the results would be mushroom clouds over U.S. cities.

-1945

The $24 Billion Fix — And Cuts

So how do you fix such glaring problems?

The Air Force asked RAND to come up with a plan two years ago, and, surprisingly, Ochmanek said, “we found it impossible to spend more than $8 billion a year.”

That’s $8 billion for the Air Force. Triple that to cover for the Army and the Navy Department (which includes the US Marines), Ochmanek said, and you get $24 billion.

Yes, these are very broad strokes, but that’s only 3.3 percent of the $750 billion defense budget President Trump will propose for the 2020 fiscal year.

Work was less worried about the near-term risk — he thinks China and Russia aren’t eager to try anything right now — and more about what happens 10 to 20 years from now. But, he said, “sure, $24 billion a year for the next five years would be a good expenditure.

So what does that $24 billion buy?

To start with, missiles. Lots and lots of missiles. The US and its allies notoriously keep underestimating how many smart weapons they’ll need for a shooting war, then start to run out against enemies as weak as the Serbs or Libyans. Against a Russia or China, which can match not only our technology but our mass, you run out of munitions fast.

Specifically, you want lots of long-range offensive missiles. Ochmanek mentioned Army artillery brigades, which use MLRS missile launchers, and the Air Force’s JAGM-ER smart bomb, while Work touted the Navy’s LRASM ship-killer. You also want lots of defensive missiles to shoot down the enemy‘s offensive missiles, aircraft, and drones. One short-term fix there is the Army’s new Maneuver Short-Range Air Defense (MSHORAD) batteries, Stinger missiles mounted on 8×8 Stryker armored vehicles. In the longer term, lasers, railguns, and high-powered microwaves could shoot down incoming missiles much less expensively.

The other big fix: toughening up our command, control, and communications networks. That includes everything from jam-proof datalinks to electronic warfare gear on combat aircraft and warships. The services are fond of cutting corners on electronics to get as many planes in the air and hulls in the water as possible, Ochmanek said, but a multi-billion dollar ship that dies for lack of a million-dollar decoy is a lousy return on investment.

In the longer run, Work added, you want to invest heavily in artificial intelligence: not killer robots, he said, but “loyal wingmen” drones to support manned aircraft and big-data crunchers to help humans analyze intelligence and plan. Of course, you have to find the money for new stuff somewhere, which means either raising the defense budget even further — unlikely — or cutting existing programs. Ochmanek was unsurprisingly shy about specifics, saying only that the services could certainly squeeze out $8 billion each for new technologies.

Work was a little harder-edged. He said cutting a carrier and two amphibious ships over the forthcoming 2020-2024 budget “seems right to me.” He argued the US Army has way too many brigade combat teams — tanks and infantry — and way too little missile defense to protect them. And he bemoaned reports the US Air Force will retire the B-1 bomber, one of its few long-range strike aircraft: If the Air Force doesn’t want them, he said, give them to the Navy, revive the old VPB “Patrol Bomber” squadrons, and load them with Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles to sink the Chinese navy. Pentagon leaders should challenge the armed services to solve very hard, very specific problems.

Work said: Sink 350 Chinese navy and coast guard vessels in the first 72 hours of a war, or destroy 2,400 Russian armored vehicles. Whoever has the best solution gets the most money. Those are hardly easy goals, Work said, but they’re also doable with technology now in development.

Easy Solution. The immediate problems could be fixed with technology already in production, Ochmanek said. For $24 billion, “I can buy the whole kit,” he said. “It’s all mature technologies and it would scare the crap out of adversaries, in a good way.”

It’s all about the money…

According to Washington DC K-Street neocons, the solution is more money. Not, instead, to rethink the value of conducting war against a peer-capable enemy. Especially one that has no intention on invading America. And they should think about the consequences…

No matter how one calculates it, fighting China over Taiwan would harm American interests and security without even holding the potential for benefit. 

We must resist the temptation to act on the presumption that we can always choose to fight because we will always win. 

The future of our country might hinge on getting this right.

-1945

The only threat to America these days is domestic. Internally, America is collapsing and the rest of the world isn’t. But… Let’s suppose that the money-grabbing Washington “think tanks” have made the necessary Power Point PPT presentations and convinced, actually convinced, those that control the utilization of the military that it is indeed possible to win a war. What then? Well let’s look at the situation from this point of view…

Biden Can’t Assume America Beats China in a Taiwan War

By  . Published

Joe Biden will face a host of difficulties and challenges when he assumes office on January 20, but perhaps none more consequential than deteriorating China-U.S. relations.

It is the potential flashpoint of Taiwan that will have the greatest urgency. Many in Washington are advocating a shedding of the decades’ old policy of “strategic ambiguity,” in favor of an overt declaration that we would come to the defense of Taiwan if China ever seeks to reunify the island by force.

Well. According to the UN, and both China and Taiwan, Taiwan is Han Chinese and part of China. It operates independently like Hong Kong does. But in no way is it an American territory. Which is something that the United States media and the neocons in Washington DC wants everyone to believe.

Assumed in such advocacy is the presumption the U.S. Armed Forces would be able to successfully accomplish that mission. For at least three major reasons, those assumptions are badly misplaced.

First, the risk is high that on purely military fundamentals, the United States would fail to successfully prevent a resolute and committed Chinese assault. As the most recent Department of Defense annual report to Congress on China details, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) – remains on a multi-decade modernization push that has seen them develop a substantial defensive capability, known as anti-access, area-denial (A2/AD).

China’s A2/AD strategy, the Pentagon report explains, is designed to “dissuade, deter, or, if ordered, defeat third-party intervention during a large-scale, theater campaign such as a Taiwan contingency.”

Their strategy includes the use of modern weaponry including warships, new fighters, increasingly lethal missile forces, heavy armor, and cyberattack capability.

When comparing the armed forces of the United States and China, we are still substantially more capable than China. Our ability to project power, for example, remains ahead of China.

Critically, however, the balance of power near China’s shores would give them virtually EVERY military advantage.

Repeated wargames conducted in the United States pitting the U.S. against China in a Taiwan scenario reveal the ugly truth.

Former Assistant Secretary of Defense and current RAND analyst David A. Ochmanek revealed earlier this year that simulation exercises have exposed troubling results when the U.S. intervenes in war between China and Taiwan.

The American side, Ochmanek admitted, has “had its ass handed to it for years.”  

The reasons for the simulated combat losses aren’t hard to understand.

Over the past few decades, the Chinese have developed modern weapons of war and have improved the quality of their fighting force substantially above where they were when the U.S. dismantled Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi army in 1991.

Though our military is globally superior any fight within the so-called “first island chain” near China’s coast would play to Beijing’s tactical advantage.

As if 2020, this is now obsolete. According to the United States military, and the Trump White House the "first island chain" delimitation line is no longer an American advantage. 

It is an area of Chinese military advantage.

Our conventional and nuclear power deter China from ever attacking the U.S. mainland or Armed Forces – but if we choose to intervene in their back yard, they would have the advantage.

Second, in the event of war, Taiwan may defend itself not merely by targeting the attacking Chinese forces, but by hitting military bases on the Chinese mainland. 

If the U.S. joins the fight against China, it is unlikely China would differentiate whether an attack against its mainland came from a Taiwanese or American source and may well prompt a Chinese retaliation against U.S. targets either in the region (such as in Japan, South Korea, Guam, or Hawaii) or directly on our continental homeland. The risk would then rise precipitously of a nuclear response against American Cities on American soil.

Third, even if we overcame all the difficulties and imposed an outright defeat on the Chinese, there’s no guarantee China wouldn’t try again and we would be saddled with permanently garrisoning Taiwan, indefinitely making its security our responsibility. It would also all but guarantee a new war with China, as an American military presence across the Strait would entice Beijing to prepare for the next round. Taiwan is a core interest of China and they would never quit fighting.

As China has repeatedly warned the brain-dead American leadership, that Taiwan is Chinese territory. 

Any American killing of Chinese people on Chinese soil would result in American deaths on American soil.

Of course, the idea that China would stick to a conventional strategy and isolate Taiwan and allow it to work with the United States unencumbered is another major illusion. 

There is a much higher chance of San Fransisco turned to a flat, glassed over radioactive plain than this scenario coming into being. The Chinese leadership does not think like an American oligarch.

We would have to spend scores of billions annually to perpetually defend Taiwan, placing severe strain on our economy, diverting military forces and resources from everywhere else in the world, and require a major increase in the size of our military and thus base defense budget.

Undertaking such a burden as the “prize” for successfully preventing China from taking Taiwan could literally bankrupt our country and leave us more vulnerable than we’ve been since before World War I.

If you thought that Afghanistan's trillions of dollars was a waste, you ain't seen nothing yet. 

China would make that look like play-money. 

China could turn Taiwan into Verdun if it wanted to. And America would be trapped in throwing trillions of dollars into that sink hole, all to the glee of the neocons on K-street.

It should be beyond clear that it is not in America’s interests to take such an enormous risk. Naturally, the United States is a genuine advocate for freedom and self-determination across the globe.

It is not, however, our responsibility to be the global guarantor of every land and peoples’ freedom on the planet.

It would be a tragedy beyond compare if in trying to defend one country’s freedom, we put at risk our ability to guarantee our own.

Why are we even talking about this?

Well? Why?

Like him or hate him. Bernie Sanders made a great point thirty years ago (30 years!) that is even more pointed now. And it describes exactly what is going on right now. It describes the WHY everyone in Washington DC is talking about war with China, or War with Russia…

This video was made exactly 30 years ago.

Now, China at that time was truly third world. Over 90% of it’s people lived in poverty. But the government did exactly what Bernie Sanders proposes in this video, and now look at China today.

Now we have America looking to start a major war.

Idiots!

The next war will reduce all of America to slag. All of it. And the nations… nations… fractured remains that rise up, will be fourth world nations working hard to become more than just a radioactive banana republic.

How a War Against China Could Cripple the United States

By  . Published

Once China has decided to use military force to reunify Taiwan, their first actions will be covert actions designed to quietly set the stage for the assault of their main combat forces.

The assumption is...

The first action that will signal a full-on war has begun will be an initial, major barrage of ballistic missiles screaming across the strait at multiple civilian and military targets.

Once that happens, everything happens at warp speed.

The first barrage of missiles will target critical infrastructure and seek to destroy Taiwan’s ability to respond to the Chinese onslaught.

They will target military airfields to make them unusable, seek to destroy aircraft on the ground, especially those with the ability to conduct command and control and to direct other weapons (like AWACs-type craft); missile boats and Aegis-type destroyers in their births; anti-air and missile batteries on the ground.

“We warn those ‘Taiwan independence’ elements – those who play with fire will burn themselves, and Taiwan independence means war.”

— Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian

In the early hours of the battle, Taiwanese troops are shocked, confused, lack clear communications, and are fighting in the rear and from the front at the beaches.

Also an assumption.

China’s initial objectives will be to secure at least one of the three airfields and capture one or more beach landing sites by the end of the first day of fighting.

If they do, they will have a chance to open an airbridge and beach landing site through which they can pour more and more material with limited opposition. Like at the Normandy beach landings in 1944, once the invading force breaks through at the beach, it is almost impossible for the defenders to win.

The defenders’ primary objective is to identify and destroy all Chinese efforts on the island as quickly as possible, retain control of all airfields, and keep the beaches impregnable.

If China is not successful in landing the knock-out blow within the first 48 hours, it will likely have to switch its efforts to dramatically increasing its use of ballistic and cruise missiles, fighter and bomber sorties, and ship-to-shore missiles to try and force an opening at one or more beach landing zones.

They will try to overwhelm the island through brute force. If Taiwan is successful at preventing any large scale incursions either on the beach or via airborne or air-assault operations, their chances of thwarting the invasion increase dramatically. But they still won’t be out of the woods.

If China cannot penetrate the beach after two weeks of fighting, they may shift to a siege mentality, in which they will continue sustained bombing of the island, but at a reduced rate while putting into effect a naval blockade.

If things broke well for Taiwan, it is entirely possible that they could prevent China from opening any beachheads against their defenses. A naval blockade, however, will be more difficult to overcome.

Without any ability to replace the missiles and other ammunition they expend, no way to medically evacuate their wounded, or to import oil to power their warships, fuel their armored vehicles, and generate electricity – not to mention feed the population.

Though Taiwan can inflict serious damage to the PLA military, China’s capacity to absorb the damage and replace losses – while maintaining a blockade – is unlikely to be enough to stave off eventual defeat.

Taipei’s hope that by holding out long enough the U.S. will come riding to a the rescue will, one way or another, be dashed.

Constraints on U.S. Response

As Admiral Philip Davidson said in recent Congressional testimony, it would take American ships based in Alaska 17 days to reach Taiwan; 21 days from the U.S. West Coast.

Which is the entire idea behind the QUAD. To have massive military forces within close proximity of China. And thus American military would stream from Australia into the South Pacific Sea.

Beijing’s attack will require a no-notice launch to minimize the Taiwanese defender’s ability to man their positions, but possibly the greater purpose will be to ensure the U.S. Navy and Air Force are caught flat-footed and unable to mount an effective response.

To even have a chance at success, U.S. Forces in the Pacific region would have to have months to prepare.

They would have to bring personnel strength up near 100%, make all their ships and aircraft combat ready and fully supplied with wartime ammunition and fuel stocks.

That will never happen. At best American equipment is at 35% readiness, with a goal of some day reaching 50% readiness.

Any shortfalls in personnel, ships, and planes would have to be redeployed from other theaters to bring the Pacific naval and air fleets up to full capacity. None of those will be possible with a no-notice surprise attack by Beijing – and that vulnerability will put the U.S. president in a real bind.

Crisis in the White House Situation Room

The instant the first report reaches the Situation Room, the White House will assemble a crisis response team of senior advisors to begin analyzing the situation and debating potential responses.

Some will suggest the president order immediate long-range missile attacks against Chinese invasion air and naval forces in an attempt to aid the defenders.

Others may advocate hitting the Chinese bases supporting the invasion.

China will likely warn Biden that any attack on China-proper will result in missile strikes on American cities with conventional warheads* (still very lethal).

Word is that America HAS been warned. And the type of weapon used has not be specified. 

*One of the biggest problems that Americans make is assuming that everyone else thinks like them.

As Mike Sweeny recently wrote for Defense Priorities, such attacks against targets on the Chinese mainland will inflame the Chinese domestic audience against the United States in increase the pressure for a nuclear response.

Again. There is a serious fundamental difference between China and America. In China, day to day public option does not matter. Decisions are not made by mob rule. They are made by merit-appointed true experts and the decisions are always sound. If China believes that the advantage would be to eviscerate New York City with a cluster of six nuclear war heads, then it will do so, and what the newspaper reader on the street thinks will not factor into the equation.

The risk of a war between Washington and Beijing escalating to nuclear is higher than many understand.

Duh!

But the president will face enormous pressures to act militarily in the face of Chinese aggression.

Taiwanese officials will certainly be pleading for the U.S. to intervene. Those in the United States who are already China hawks will almost certainly advocate “limited” military retaliation.

They will argue that Washington cannot stand passively by while China swallows a leading democratic country in Asia.

To refuse to act would be tantamount to Neville Chamberlain’s infamous appeasement at Munich and encourage China to try and conquer other nations militarily. In all fairness, such concerns would not be without merit.

But Biden’s ability to respond militarily would be far more limited than would be commonly understood.

If Congress declared war on China or gave Biden authority to launch a military strike, the best he could do would be to unleash a relatively few cruise missiles and order some long-range bombing sorties from regional bases.

Those would have some impact but be insufficient to stop China’s invasion.

“China’s navy is viewed as posing a major challenge to the U.S. Navy’s ability to achieve and maintain wartime control of blue-water ocean areas in the Western Pacific.” 

—Congressional Research Service analysis

To engage in sustained operations in support of Taiwan’s defenses, it would take the U.S. Navy and Air Force months to properly enter the war theater.

Trying to rush our military into a fight as soon as it can reach Taiwan would be near suicidal, as we would be arriving to the fight in sub-optimal condition, not fully resourced – and would face the full brunt of the Chinese air and naval forces (which are about double the size of the U.S. Pacific fleets). As importantly, PRC air and naval forces have long had existing plans to fight a U.S. force sent to aid Taiwan and have conducted countless computer simulations and field exercises.

We would be outnumbered, out-prepared, and out-gunned while fighting a motivated enemy engaged in what it considers an existential battle.

Duh! If Texas was Attacked how would American react? The same kind of visceral reaction should be expected of China.

All of the recent U.S.-based computer simulations reach similar conclusions.

Our Navy “gets its ass handed to it” in one scenario examining a fight against China over Taiwan and the Air Force “is going to lose fast.”

In short, if Biden rashly sends the military to Taiwan’s defense, he could be sending us to our greatest naval defeat in our history.

If the president’s military advisers convince him to attack military targets on the mainland, the results could be mushroom clouds over U.S. cities.

The leaders in Washington DC believe that the loss of a city like Los Angles would be acceptable “collateral losses” in the quest to maintain Democracy off the coast of China.

Fortunately, however, there are superior options for Biden to choose that don’t involve dead Americans.

Preserving U.S. Military Power, Maintaining Security and Freedom

If China bull-headedly turns to violence to take Taiwan by force, the U.S. Government’s overriding priority will be to safeguard American security, freedom, and prosperity.

America's "freedom", and "prosperity"? Americans are so used to repeating the narrative that they no longer know what the words mean.

If Biden resists the temptation to respond immediately, he can dramatically shift the balance of power back in America’s favor by adopting realistic and attainable diplomatic and military strategy that features isolating, resisting, and containing China.

LOL. As if that is going to happen. Did you see any reasoning or strategy in the Alaskan meeting in April 2021 between Washington and China?

If China is foolish enough to gamble its future by attacking Taiwan – and America is smart enough to stay out of the war – the PRC will be severely weakened from its current status.

I disagree. 

The entire world relies on Chinese manufacturing. And factories do not grow on trees. There are no quality alternatives for precision manufacturing, high technology products or innovation. Everything has been outsourced to China, and that includes Japanese products and design, German products and design, Korean products and design and all the rest.

The United States has, for some time, championed Taipei building a defensive fortress that would make any Chinese attempt to invade prohibitively expensive.

If anything, (America)  should encourage Taiwan to expand further their defenses.

Even if China were successful in catching Taiwan unprepared, the surprise would not be complete, and Taipei would still have the ability to launch retaliatory strikes against the Chinese.

Unlike the United States, Taiwan would have no incentive to resist attacking mainland targets and would attack mainland airfields, naval bases, rocket and missile launch sites, and Chinese defense industry targets.

It would be very difficult seeing that the Chinese can render all missiles inactive by energy beam weapons.

They would also successfully sink some Chinese warships, knock out some fighter jets, and destroy thousands of their troops.

Maybe.

But China does not think like that.

Let me tell you what is more probable.

Nothing happens. Then one day the news says that Taiwan has embraced China as a co-family member. And has decided to get closer to the mainland.

That is the kind of level of strategy that we are dealing with here. Not the crude "blow 'em up" Rambo style of neocon warfare.

The net result of even a successful attack would gouge the PLA, severely weakening their ability to wage war; if Taiwan somehow held out and prevented an island takeover, the PLA would be set back decades and the PRC itself at risk of falling internally.

Um. Not even remotely realistic. 

Any nation that can build two (x2) 4000 bed hospitals in ten days, or a 80 story skyscraper in a week, would have no problem replenishing military forces.

In either event, America’s advantage over China would be significantly increased, our ability to protect U.S. interests global continue to be unmatched, and our people continue in complete freedom.

Americans living in "freedom"? Obviously he was doing drugs when he wrote this. I think that he is just rolling off some trite sayings without thinking, rather than adding constructive dialog to make his points with.

Moreover, we would then have decades to increase our defenses from Guam to Hawaii to the West Coast – should that be deemed necessary – to ensure China could never, even decades into the future, successfully mount a cross-Pacific attack.

With what money? When it would take a wheel-barrel full of $100 bills to buy a hamburger?

What Americans think China’s military is like…

This is exactly what Americans think that the Chinese military is today. It’s what most people think. It’s a group of peasant, illiterate, with little training using 1980’s era hand-me-down old Soviet Union weapons. Where, their only strength is in their enormous numbers of people.

What China’s military is actually like…

This has rapidly become my favorite video. This is what the Chinese military is actually like.

This is a singular unit in XinJiang, you know the place; where the gateway to the BRI is, and where America must stop at nothing to disrupt it.

You probably know of it though the propaganda campaign about Uighur Muslims in Concentration Camps and other bullshit. You know. That America “must do something to help those poor oppressed Muslims”. As if the American oligarchy ever cared about Muslims at all, ever.

And some of the technologies that China has. Their quads operate and behave quite differently than what the American units do. And it’s very interesting. You have to keep in mind that all, and every Chinese person is a member of the irregulars. They all have military training, and the enormous size of the Chinese military is only the active “professional” warrior class. Not the irregulars.

And every squad has one of these curious weapons. They also have this other “neato” gun which is sort of a pocket howitzer that is the size of a rifle.

Chinese knives are sure cool, eh?

A personal mortar. Also standard with all squads…

The jeep howitzers are pretty cool too…

And aside from the regular training, and the mandatory of all military train for every single 14 year old boy and girl in China, you have elements of training that is simply not present in the United States, such as being able to shoot, and load a weapon with one hand. As in this movie…

And of course, since all the parts and engines, and subsystems of all the latest military hardware is contracted out to China, it should be no surprise that their home-gown, home-design, and home-manufactured weapons systems would be equal or better than the American ones that spawned them…

All the videos

If you cannot access all or some of the videos you can get them all HERE. Some good stuff, especially if you are a military buff.

Conclusion

In sum, by staying out of a China vs. Taiwan war, not only would America  maintain our current strength, our national security would be stronger.

Conversely, if we foolishly insert ourselves into their fight, we will suffer severe damage to our Armed Forces at a minimum, placing our national security around the world at higher risk; in a worst-case, American cities could smolder in radioactive waste for years to come.

No matter how one calculates it, fighting China over Taiwan would harm American interests and security without even holding the potential for benefit.

We must resist the temptation to act on the presumption that we can always choose to fight because we will always win.

The future of our country might hinge on getting this right.

MM Comments

Ah. Perhaps. I can parse though many of his comments and poke holes through them.

(Taiwan) "...would attack mainland airfields, naval bases, rocket and missile launch sites, and Chinese defense industry targets."

Perhaps if he looked at a map he would see how ridiculous this statement is.

Taiwan would try.

And the planes wouldn’t be able to fly with  directed energy beam weapons causing them to fall out of the sky.

And even if they could make it back, where would they land.

All the airfields would be cratered.

Ok. You can never predict the outcome of a military operation.

Certainly [1] the failure of the Trump administration to cause starvation in China by using drone launched bio-weapons against livestock didn’t work. The [2] aggressive “color revolution” in Hong Kong didn’t work. The [3] attempt at destabilizing Xinjiang didn’t work, and most certainly [4] the COVID bio-weapon attack against China on CNY with the lethal B-strain did not work.

Any military action in defense of Taiwan… … has a very small likelihood of working.

Chances are that it would not be successful.

And the participation of the American military against China WILL LAUNCH a hot war against America. Which would have  at least a few of the following characteristics.

  • Destruction of Guam
  • Destruction of Diego Garcia
  • End of all trade with China… resulting in a collapse of many American industries as they still rely on Chinese trade to operate.
  • Probable war with Australia and the destruction of Australian Cities.
  • Russian involvement for certain as an ally of China.
  • Destruction of the cities in Hawaii.
  • And a high chance of nuclear destruction of American cities.

I would suggest the destruction of every city over a population of 750,000 in America. That would include all the “big names”. Perhaps the capital of the United States could relocate to Salina , Kansas.

All of these potential issues have an over 65% chance of happening if the USA gets involved and tries to provoke a war regarding China.

So the question really is… …just how out of touch, insane and crazy is the United States leadership? Would they be that foolish to tangle with Russia and China over some South China Sea incident?

Well…

Maybe this next article will provide the answer…

CIA Wokeness

Michael Tracey writes about a weird CIA video that is making the rounds (emphasis added):

In a mind-blowing marketing video first published on March 25, but which had escaped widespread notice until recent days, the CIA enthusiastically endorsed several key tenets of what has now indisputably become a hegemonic left/liberal ideological and rhetorical construct:

“I am a woman of color,” the video’s protagonist, an unnamed CIA officer, triumphantly proclaims. “I am a cisgender millennial who’s been diagnosed with generalized anxiety disorder. I am intersectional, but my existence is not a box-checking exercise.”

She continues, “I used to struggle with imposter syndrome. But at 36, I refuse to internalize misguided patriarchal ideas of what a woman can or should be. I am tired of feeling like I’m supposed to apologize for the space I occupy.”

I have to admit that I do not know what the words are supposed to mean. (Nor does my Firefox spellchecker. It flags them.) I also do not understand the  phrases. To me they sounds like utter bullshit. But if the CIA wants to hire more such people I am all for it. Folks who can not leave their personal issues at the door typically muck up their workplace and create productivity problems. A less effective CIA will be a plus for the rest of the world.

But it will certainly enable the already insane leadership to go blindly towards a very dangerous path.

And that path looks, more and more everyday, like a high-speed rail straight to Hell.

But America is invincible, don’t you know!

It’s all over the chat rooms. America has the best training, the most capable leaders, the strongest military, and the best manufacturing in the world. While China is what? “A third world, has been nation, that has stolen more than it contributes”, right? That’s the narrative. This is typical…

(This article is) Complete BS. You don't understand how military power and capability works. 

China doesn't have any Carrier groups, not one. That is a BIG deal. 

They can't project any significant sea / air power. 

They also don't have any significant amphibious assault capabilities such as the USMC. 

Their air-force isn't close in capability. 

The majority of their service members have very rudimentary training at best. There is much more to "staff" a military than just hand a rifle to a 16 year old peasant. A 155mm artillery shell or 1000 lb air delivered bomb takes care of numbers. 

#34  ·

But the interesting retort is here…

  • I completely understand how military power and capability works. I didn’t say they could or would invade the US. I said we couldn’t defeat them in a context of their island building in the South Pacific. They’ve been testing and demonstrating anti-satellite weapons for over a decade. They don’t have a lot of carriers but they have a lot of submarines to take out carriers. They don’t have the capability to deliver an invasion force on the US but they definitely have that capacity throughout the South Pacific. They have massive manufacturing capacity and we have dwindled ours to virtual non-existence. In WWII, our fleet was decimated in short order but we had massive manufacturing capacity and we cranked out ships and carriers in droves. Where are we going to do that today? Where are we going to make the electronic components to drive a modern fleet? 
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...56/US-weapons-full-of-fake-Chinese-parts.html
    Read that carefully. We get our legitimate Mil-Spec electronic parts from China and we get fake parts from China. Where are we going to get them when we go to war with China and have to rebuild a fleet? What about training? We’re training them on how to defeat us: 
    http://blogs.reuters.com/great-deba...hinas-military-while-inching-toward-conflict/

http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnew...up-u-s-training-of-communist-chinese-military
    If you think of China as a backwards country where the soldiers would be 16-year-old peasants, I think you’re wrong. Then you have to consider the likelihood of China using a tactical nuke. Are they crazy enough? They don’t have to be; they need only convince our President that they might be.

But it doesn’t matter. Decades of anti-China propaganda and an onslaught in the belief that America is a nation of Rambo’s has created a situation where everyone is living in this fantasy world…

They would not stand a chance vs the US today.

China has never won a war. They are defensive by nature, they are not an offensive power. historically they build walls. Their "islands" are an example of that. They don't plan on projecting force, they plan on defending what they see as their's.

China can't build a jet engine worth a poop.
China can't come up with their own ideas and relies on stealing to make their military products - so how do you conclude they can figure out how to out-think the west?

China has virtually NO access to oil/gas/coal should a war happen. Sounds like a short war.

Their navy would have a fair fight with japan.

If I recall correctly, Japan was beaten without any foot troops...

#40  ·

Lots of underestimating your enemy going on here.

Ah. A bunch of “arm chair” warriors debating some war that is on the other side of the world. A place where they never visited, and a society and culture that they know nothing about. It’s 2021. China has been very clear about what would happen;

  • Taiwan, and the SCS islands are all Chinese territory.
  • Kill one Chinese person on Chinese land, and China will retaliate in an equal measured manner.

They have already demonstrated this…

April 2020 China’s first Type-075 amphibious assault carrier, designed for launching helicopters, caught fire. It was mysterious how it happened. The Chinese Navy put out the fire, and repaired the damage and launched the ship as scheduled.

Then…

July 2020 The Navy’s USS Bonhomme Richard burned for days at its pier in San Diego. After the fire was put out, the Navy registered the destruction as “total” and wrote off the vessel as a total loss.

The Chinese Do Not Play.

A fine reminder…

Here’s a fine reminder for all the jack-asses that believe that American could shoot and kill Chinese people, on Chinese land, and somehow go unscathed…

Nuclear detonations map of the USA one

And let’s continue…

We need to look at the full scope about what it going on…

The full scope

  • American leadership are clueless psychopaths.
  • Their toadies are sociopaths that run the levels of government.
  • The bureaucracy that serves them has been politically and socially corrupted beyond usefulness.
  • Never the less, all studies point to catastrophic consequences if the United States tries to get involved in a war with either Russia or China.
  • And Russia and China have signed mutual military treaties so that they will work together if the USA tries to instigate a war.

The public is not aware of this. And because of that, we have a situation where American and their leadership wants a war. And this was made obvious in the April 2021 meeting in Anchorage Alaska.          

Meanwhile, the Chinese are not FOOLS. They know exactly what the stakes are, and they will absolutely not permit any “wars of democracy” to land anywhere near them. And if they do… oh, Lordy. God help the American citizenry. There will not be any mercy.

Why?

Because the Chinese know history…

.

Make no mistake.

The Chinese will fight to the death to guarantee that they will not be exterminated like vermin by the psychopaths in Washington DC. They will guarantee it.

Like it or not, but Trump has a real chance of winning the 2024 elections. 
This in fact will be the best thing ever because the whole world will immediately turn their backs on USA the way they did. 

Personally I can't wait for him to f*ck USA up and try to start a war with either China or/and Iran. About time USA get its ass whipped.

Posted by: Hoyeru | May 18 2021 3:28 utc | 66

The USA is ready with a new army

Do not worry, the “new and improved” military forces are more than ready to deal with 16 year old goat-herders with malfunctioning cheapo Chinese AK-47 clones…

Oh, and you want a real hoot?

Check out what the fuck happened to the enormous Armada that steamed to China in 2020. Nope, it did not go as planned. It was a fiasco, and President Trump sacked the top military brass for not following through on his wishes.

You all just got to read this…

Check out the stats

They don’t tell you the entire picture, but they do give you a feel for what is going on. Click on the link.

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Images of societal reset. Here’s some reminders that conflict and change is often ugly.

Please note that this article has a large number of videos. It is important for you to watch them to get the full impact of the message. None of the videos are longer than four minutes, but they might take some time to download depending on your service provider.

There’s a bunch of dunder-head idiots inside the United States that wants to get involved in a war. Whether it is with Russia, or Iran, or China. They want a war. And they are justifying war like they are some middle-school boys planning on a swing set in the playground. It’s dangerous, but it’s all there in black and white.

Right up front in our faces….

Rep Ted Yoho had a PR nightmare this week after reportedly calling Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez some ungentlemanly terms. Though this is the controversy du jour, we should not lose sight that actual policy is more important than sound bites. Yoho recently announced plans to submit legislation this week for the “Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act” that would commit the United States to war against China if Beijing attacks Taiwan. Such a proposition has long been popular in the Beltway. Before tying the United States to Taipei’s fate, however, a closer analysis is warranted.

-Should the United States Go to War with China if Taiwan is Attacked?

But, you know, this time is really different. Oh, now. The “boys” won’t be a marching off to war. It will pretty much be “game over” for the Old US of A.

They don’t seem to understand just how meager and vulnerable the United States actually is.

The truth is that America is so weak and disorganized right now, that the slightest “event” could have everyone fighting each other like a scene out of a Hollywood movie.

And to make this point, just how absolutely RIPE America is ready for social upheaval and tearing other Americans apart, I have to show a clip from a movie. It’s one that most non-Americans are confused by. But here, now that you understand the real context behind the deeper meaning of the scene, you can well appreciate it.

America is ripe and ready for this…

Exactly… THIS…

Sorry that the quality is on the poor side. But the point is there. Listen to it, and embrace it.

American against American. Black against white. Urban against rural. Rich against poor. Spanish against Anglos.

Notice how the wealthy oligarchy observes and knows what is going on, but they either [1] divert their eyes because they don't want to see, or [2] watch the events with glee. Others also watching look up it with horror, disgust, and a state of trying to monitor the situation reasonably. This piece of video art is a masterpiece.

And I'm not saying that solely because they use Lynyrd Skynyrd music as the backdrop.

I am not the only one saying this. It’s pretty much well-established inside of America today.

America is ripe for ignition.

The church fight scene in Kingsman: The Secret Service is hands down one of the most memorable action sequences in recent history. But there are actually layers to what makes it so great – layers beyond the primal gratification we collectively derive from seeing someone (rightfully) get the shit kicked out of them. 

-Bosshunting

People are angry. They’re angry about the Covid lockdowns. They’re angry because they are losing their jobs and can’t pay the rent and feed their families. They’re angry because the stores are all out of the food and supplies they need to survive.

They are angry because they get beaten up by the cops if they don’t keep a certain distance from each other in public. They’re angry at the politicians who pretend to be helping but in truth are making things worse with partisan, self-serving bullshit. And African-Americans are angry because they find themselves — yet again — in the crosshairs of deadly racism.

In short, Americans are as mad as hell.

America is on the verge of an explosion. I can feel its rumblings already. My guess is it’s already started happening in a small way, and within the next year or two it is going to spread like wildfire.

…

Right now, virtually the entire country is in a really bad mood, and unfortunately some people will choose to resort to violence.

And it can happen in places that you might not expect.  For instance, an argument over social distancing rules at a McDonald’s in Oklahoma resulted in three people getting shot…

But as our world gets even crazier, more people than ever are going to be going off the deep end.

Our nation is so deeply divided, and explosions of anger and hatred are becoming increasingly common.  So many Americans are willing to “shoot first and ask questions later”, and the shooting of a 25-year-old African-American man in Georgia is causing a national uproar…

-End of the American Dream

Rage

Take this…

People are screaming at each other a lot these days. The most recent example is a viral video, seen by millions of people since last week, of a woman who went ballistic because a service dog was sitting near her in a Delaware restaurant.

The dog in question belonged to a veteran with post-traumatic stress disorder. But that didn't stop the woman from unleashing a three-minute, profanity-laced tirade. I'm sure all the diners at Kathy's Crab House lost their appetite that evening.

"It is disgusting to have an animal in a public restaurant ... I think it's gross!" the woman screams. (This is a family-friendly publication, so I can't print much more of what she said.)

It seems everybody is furious today. We've created a culture of outrage. People are offended, and if you aren't offended by what offends them, they are offended by your lack of offense.

We are addicts. We crave a daily fix of rage. We rant on Facebook and Twitter because we need a regular dose of vitriol to fuel our habit. Then we turn on a newscast to watch agitated political commentators throw more gasoline on the flames.

The rage burns on both sides of our political divide. White supremacists march with tiki torches to spread hate. Black Lives Matter activists loot stores and smash windows. Former NFL fans burn football jerseys on barbecue grills. Campus lectures require police protection because leftists have threatened right-wing speakers. Madonna drops expletives and threatens to blow up the White House because she's so mad President Trump won the election.

Is there anything we don't get angry about these days? Depending on which side of an issue Americans stand, we are offended by Starbucks coffee, Chick-fil-A sandwiches, Target restrooms, CNN, Fox, Nike shoes, the real cause of hurricanes or whatever the actress Jennifer Lawrence said yesterday.

Our rage has become so absurd that a shopper at a Hobby Lobby craft store was offended by cotton stalks (yes, cotton stalks!) in the fall décor aisle. She took her protest online and demanded that the store stop selling dried cotton bouquets for $12.99 because slaves were used in the 1800s to harvest the plants.

Honestly, it makes me wonder if the real cause of global warming is the alarming increase in human anger. We're going to burn up this planet with our rage if we aren't careful.

- Is America About to Explode?

Ok, to America isn’t just being led by psychopathic madmen with an IQ of a sixth grader, but that the American people are all worked up in a lather; in a frenzy. And the pressure is ON.

Now, couple this environment with the wealthy aristocratic and oligarchy inside the Washington Beltway that want to start a war with China. You know for “democracy”, and “freedom”!…

Back to China

But back to the subject at hand…

… if the fucking morons in Washington DC really want to engage in a Hot War with China…

… they will be doing it with Russia as well.

As they both; Russia and China, share self-defense interests.

But forget about Russia.  (For now.)

Here’s how a neocon journal characterizes going to a hot war with china. Here’s one of the precious few “con” points of view. As most view points are “we can fight the world and win! Rah! Rah!” So I was greatly relieved to read this contrary article from the K-street in Washington DC.

Well…

…sort of at least.

There would likely be no dispute from any American that we affirm and endorse the prospect that the people of Taiwan ought to be free, deserve to determine their own form of government, and above all to decide whether it is in their interests to unify with China. But what price should America be asked to pay to underwrite the freedom aspirations of another country?

Any conflict against China over Taiwan would result in American service men and women being killed, likely in large numbers. China’s military has been built over the past two decades specifically to deter the U.S. from attacking them–via anti-access, area denial (A2/AD)–but if deterrence fails, to build a defense force that would be able to sink our ships, knock out our satellites, and shoot down our fighters from great distances; if it ever came to a ground war, they have more than 375 million military-aged males from which to draw for their Army.

And keep in mind that the TOTAL population of the USA is less than that. That’s right. There are more Chinese military males than Americans in total.

United States Population (2021) - Worldometer
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population

The current population of the United States of America is 332,526,757 as of Thursday, April 15, 2021, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data. the United States 2020 population is estimated at 331,002,651 people at mid year according to UN data.

And they are not some idiotic, uneducated simpletons either. They are not “cannon fodder”.

But even he “get’s it” and understands the risks. Well, some of them at least…

Though Yoho was initially hailed as a more libertarian member of Congress, and even introduced a resolution in 2015 that would have reined in the president’s warmaking powers, the proposal to use U.S. troops for Taiwan’s defense is not characteristic of outside-the-box thinking championed by political renegades, but instead comes from the worst pages of the establishment’s playbook. 

Instead, the best way for America to help Taiwan would be to enable them to build an A2/AD defensive bubble of their own to deter China. 

But we must ensure our security first and foremost. Committing ourselves to a war against China for the benefit of another government would be a tremendous mistake because the cost to us could be a lost war, or a victory so expensive it bankrupts us and puts our own security in peril.

However you look at it, extending security guarantees to Taiwan is not in America’s interests.

-Daniel L. Davis

But he really doesn’t fully understand the risks. In his mind, and you read it for yourself, he has identified two possible outcomes of a war with China. Which are;

  • America could lose the war, and have to return home. (Vietnam, Afghanistan)
  • A victory so expensive it bankrupts the nation.

To which I must posit the most OBVIOUS outcome that for some reason the fucking idiots on K-street in Washington DC are somehow missing…

That World War III could erupt, all cities in America are destroyed, and the rest of the work sacks what remains, and America becomes a footnote in the history books. While a united-Asia administers a radioactive North America as a “backwater: for slave labor.

Here’s some video clips from various history/war movies. Let them serve as a reminder that any conflict with China, Russia, Iran or any combination will be up-front, personal, and on American soil.

Sierra Leon

This is about Sierra Leon. Rich oligarchy in the UK used the people of Sierra Leon to create a war of distraction so that they could mine diamonds. Here we see the one faction, the “rebels” enter a town and create havoc.

Sierra Leon War
Shooting an RPG during the Sierra Leon civil war.

Do not be under the impression that this cannot happen inside of America. America is terribly balkanized, and this is EXACTLY what the oligarchy needs to further their plans.

In Blood Diamond, the sinner ripe for enlightenment is Danny Archer (DiCaprio), a native of Zimbabwe who makes a point of referring to the country by its old colonial name, Rhodesia. A former Angolan mercenary, Danny now (the film is set in the late nineties) smuggles Sierra Leone diamonds into Liberia in return for guns and rocket-launchers, which go to the rebel army (the RUF)—the army we’ve seen mowing down women and children, training young boys to be rapists and mass murderers, and conscripting hardier men to work in the diamond fields. 

-NYMag

From Britannica..

Civil war

The difficulties in the country were compounded in March 1991 when conflict in neighbouring Liberia spilled over the border into Sierra Leone. Momoh responded by deploying troops to the border region to repel the incursion of Liberian rebels known as the National Patriotic Front of Liberia (NPFL), led by Charles Taylor. Sierra Leone’s army came under attack not only from the NPFL but also from the Revolutionary United Front (RUF), led by former Sierra Leone army corporal Foday Sankoh, who was collaborating with the Liberian rebels; this was the beginning of what would be a long and brutal civil war.

In April 1992 Momoh was deposed in a coup led by Capt. Valentine E.M. Strasser, who cited the poor conditions endured by the troops engaged in fighting the rebels as one of the reasons for ousting Momoh. A National Provisional Ruling Council (NPRC) was established with Strasser as the head of state. During Strasser’s administration the civil war escalated, with the RUF increasing the amount of territory under its control, including lucrative diamond mines—the source of the “blood” or “conflict” diamonds used to fund its activities. There were disturbing reports of atrocities committed against the civilian population not only by rebel forces but also by some government troops. Civilians were subject to horrific acts of mutilation, including having their limbs, ears, and lips cut off. Incidents of rape and forced labour were widespread, and many civilians were used as unwilling human shields or held in captivity and subjected to repeated acts of sexual violence by the combatants. Forced conscription was pervasive and made many civilians, including children, unwilling participants in the conflict.

And here’s the most important statement;

 Still, in the years after the war, Sierra Leone was consistently rated as one of the world’s poorest countries.

Any civil war in America will not be one that can be easily mended. A war will have long-term damage to what America is, and the fantasies that it stands upon.

Foreign oligarchs use people.
Wealthy oligarchs treat the world as their property and use people and citizens as pawns to do their bidding.

And make no mistake, a Civil War is result during any global internal war. this time, the nation will not be unified against a common enemy. It will remain balkanized where every “man for himself” will carve out their existence.

Of course, the scene is not from Blood Diamond, but it could be. The situation in Sierra Leon was very awful.

As I watched the senseless brutality, the shooting of mothers and children as they fled, I was torn up, divided. I thought, Why do I need to see this? Then I thought, This happened in Sierra Leone and is still happening in parts of Africa—I need to see it. Then I thought, If I need to see it, I need to see more than a sneering villain with an eye patch. I need to understand how this man—and the people under him—become the monsters they are.

-NYMag
But enough of the fiction.
.
The Sierra Leone Civil War was an armed conflict in the West African country of Sierra Leone from 1991 t0 2002. The war began on March 23, 1991, when the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) under Foday Sankoh, with support of Liberian rebel leader Charles Taylor and his group, the National Patriotic Front of Liberia (NFPL), attempted to overthrow the government of Sierra Leonean President Joseph Momah.

The Sierra Leone Civil War (1991-2002)

Or, anywhere in Africa or South America

The story line is identical. It’s just the climate, the societies, and the people that are different. Do you think that because America considers itself a First-Class nation that it is somehow immune to these kinds of conflicts?

Do you believe that this would NEVER happen in the United States, simply because the wealthy people in the Untied States are kind, caring, compassionate and religious?

This is what happens when the government of a country becomes big, bloated and terribly corrupt…

The situation was further complicated when Siaka Stevens, the third prime minister, took office in 1968. He served for 17 years and during his term, created a one-party political system which led to the further dismantling of public administrative offices and extreme levels of corruption. In 1985, the fourth prime minister, Joseph Momoh, proved to be one and the same. Under his watch, Sierra Leone suffered an absolute economic crisis. Public officials were left unpaid and, in retaliation, many looted and destroyed government property and offices. This included public school teachers which led to the complete collapse of the public educational system. By 1991, Sierra Leone was one of the most impoverished countries in the world, and its citizens were dissatisfied with their living conditions. 

-World Atlas

A very important review. Does it sound somewhat familiar; like it might actually happen in America…

In 1982, as Sierra Leone’s government and economy worsened, a group of Sierra Leone University, Fourah Bay College students set up a paramilitary organization.

They were led by their group leader Alie Kabbah.

They fled to eastern Sierra Leone to form a political organization to rebel against the Temne tribe's All People’s Congress (APC). This was the governing party of the time. 

Their organization became the RUF.

Its objectives were to [1] overthrow of the Sierra Leonean government, [2] oust corrupt officials, and [3] re-allocate Sierra Leone’s wealth to benefit the general population

And you do not think that it could happen in the United States?

RUF with pistol.
America is RIPE for war. But on in a far away land, but rather back on US soil, up front and personal.

Wealthy oligarchs have plans for America.

Meanwhile oligarchs (working behind the scenes) tried to recruit people to do their bidding.

In Sierra Leon, throughout the 1980s, neighboring Libyans infiltrated into Sierra Leone with the intention of recruiting rebels.

This was part of Libyan President, Colonel Muammar Gadhafi’s Pan-African initiatives to recruit dissidents against western influence in Africa. He wanted to create a "new Africa" where American influences would be removed completely.

Now, while training in Libya, Foday Sankoh from Sierra Leone met Liberian warlord Charles Taylor. 

The two decided to form a pact, or an agreement. After establishing a relationship, Sankoh and Taylor agreed to support guerilla wars in their respective countries.

Both had hopes of overthrowing their country’s governments and creating political change. 

And so it started.

In 1989, the Civil War in Liberia began.

Under the leadership of Charles Taylor, the National Patriotic Front of Liberia (NPFL) launched a guerilla war against the Liberian government. This led to Liberia’s civil war. 

He won the war, and came to power.

Once Taylor was in power in Liberia, he supported Sankoh’s invasion and guerilla war in Sierra Leone. For after all, they were close buddies and shared the same vision and objectives.

Or maybe you don’t think that these kinds of political alignments cannot happen. Like the Antifa, or the BLM, or the Marxists, or the Far-Right.

Civil war broke out in Sierra Leon in 1990 under the command of former Sierra Leonean army corporal Foday Sankoh.

He launched his first attack in villages in Kailahun District in eastern Sierra Leone on March 23, 1991. 

This small band of men who called themselves the Revolutionary United Front (RUF).

After that he began to attack villages in eastern Sierra Leone on the Liberian border. 

The government of Sierra Leone, overwhelmed by a crumbling economy and corruption, was unable to put up significant resistance. 

Within a month of entering Sierra Leone the RUF controlled much of the Eastern Province.

And so it begins…

Fighting continued in the ensuing months, with the RUF gaining control of the diamond mines in the Kono district.

Then, they were successful in pushing the Sierra Leone army back towards Freetown. 

On April 29, 1992, a group of young soldiers led by Capt. Valentine Strasser, apparently frustrated by the Sierra Leon government's failure to deal with rebels, launched a military coup.

This ended up sending President Momoh into exile in Guinea. 

They established the National Provisional Ruling Council (NPRC) with Yahya Kanu as its chairman. 

But Kanu was assassinated by fellow NPRC members, who accused him of trying to negotiate with the toppled APC administration. 

And so after a period of bloodletting, on May 4, 1992,Captain Valentine Strasser took over as chairman of the NPRC.

As well as thend Head of State of Sierra Leone.

And did it change anything?

No.

The NPRC proved to be nearly as ineffectual as the Momoh government in repelling the RUF. 

More and more of the country fell to RUF fighters.

By 1995 the RUF held much of the countryside.

They were also near the major populated cities, and were on the doorstep of Freetown. 

To retrieve the situation, the NPRC hired several hundred mercenaries from the private firm Executive Outcomes. 

Within a month they had driven RUF fighters back to enclaves along Sierra Leone’s borders.

So now that the new “reformed” government was able to suppress the RUF rebels, is that the end of the story?

No.

In January 1996, after nearly four years in power, Strasser was ousted in a coup by fellow NPRC members.

This was led by his trusted deputy Maada Bio. 

The new(est) government took immediate actions to change the course of Sierra Leon.

As a result of popular demand and mounting international pressure, the NPRC agreed to hand over power to a civilian government. 

Bio reinstated the Constitution and called for presidential and parliamentary elections. A a "democracy" was reconstituted.

Elections were held in April 1996. 

In the second round of presidential elections in early 1996, Ahmed Tejan Kabbah, candidate of the Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP) defeated John Karefa-Smart of the United National People's Party (UNPP). Kabbah was a diplomat who had worked at the UN for more than 20 years.

So an internationalist took power of the democratic Sierra Leon.

And eventually, after nearly a solid six years of bloody fighting, parliamentary elections were conducted.  And this time, under the system of proportional representation.

South Vietnam

Let’s look at Vietnam.

Ah, most MM readers won’t even remember the daily newscasts about the “proud American soldiers who died”.

But let’s not look at the American side of the involvement. Instead, let’s look at the actions of the American puppet government set up in South Vietnam…

Corruption played a signficant role in thwarting American objectives in Vietnam by contributing to the South Vietnam government’s lack of legitimacy. The heavy handed and corrupt government of South Vietnam actually made the countryside fertile for the insurgency of the Viet Cong and the communist. Successive governments left much to be desired and too readily turned a blind eye to corruption and incompetence.

An important cause for dissension among the ARVN soldiers was the widespread corruption and war profiteering that prevailed, not only among the civilian population but also among military officers. Corruption, of course, had long been common in South Vietnam. However, as infiation increased in the 1970’s and military pay failed to keep pace, corrupt practices drove wedges between the troops and their officers. Corruption had another adverse effect; it siphoned funds that could have been used to buy critically short supplies and ammunition. It has been estimated that as much as 25 percent of ARVN’s military payroll was in the name of dead or deserted soldiers who were kept on the roll so that corrupt officers could collect their salaries.

Historical photo of ARVN soldiers.
ARVN soldiers of South Vietnam.

The Republic of Vietnam, headed from 1954 to 1963 by Ngo Dinh Diem, was venal, reactionary, inefficient, and corrupt. Although Diem inherited a functional administration from the French, he failed to pursue judicial, economic, and administrative reforms, empower subordinates to exercise government authority, or create a system of oversight to curb corruption. Consequently, corruption abounded in all forms. In spite of Diem’s personal revulsion of corruption, the Ngo family was the biggest practitioner of nepotism. His close relatives filled the top ambassadorial, cabinet, and civil service posts.

In 1960, the Groupe Caravelliste, comprising 18 senior Vietnamese politicians, publicly condemned regime oppression and corruption in detail. Weeks later, a poorly planned military coup provided the regime withthe opportunity to crack down even more, including the imprisonment of the Groupe Caravelliste. At this point, Diem began to withdraw into himself, reducing his circle of confidants, and isolating himself even further from the public view. Nhu began to step up his persecution of “subversives,” as well as factionalizing the officer corps through corruption, extortion, and espionage.

The United States attempted to “fix” the incompetence, corruption, and oppression of the Diem administration by having him removed from office by a military coup. However, the problem remained. Like the Catholic Diem, who failed to connect with the predominantly Buddhist population, the military leaders who took control after the coup complicated matters by perpetuating corruption and failing to take the war to the Viet Cong insurgents.

The effectiveness of the gradually professionalizing South Vietnamese Army deteriorated rapidly as soldiers in the field lost confidence in their leaders and the government. In a matter of months, the Army of the Republic of Vietnam lost credibility with the population it was supposed to defend and with its American advisors.

Within the government of South Vietnam corruption, nepotism, extortion, and incompetence remained the norm afterwards with various leaders all the way through to President Thieu in the 1970s. A province chief might be removed here or there and replaced with a more competent and honest leader; however, the same problems would continue.

Near a jeep.
ARVN soldiers at rest.

The top leadership of the government and army remained as dependent as ever on the United States. The Saigon government remained a network of cliques, held together by American subsidies, a group of people without a coherent political orientation, bent on their own survival. Free-flowing aid lined the pockets of South Vietnamese generals and bureaucrats, deepening the corruption problem, not solving it.

Corruption was (and is) endemic throughout the developing world and even, at times, in much of the developed world. To have expected South Vietnam to be an exception was perhaps unrealistic. In fact, corruption was widespread in North Vietnam as well as in the South, giving lie to a common assumption that there was something morally pristine about the highly disciplined North. In fact, the problem of corruption had become so acute in the North that, in 1967, Ho Chi Minh himself felt compelled to go on the radio and inveigh against this troublesome plague.

More ARVN soldiers of South Vietnam.
More ARVN soldiers.

In the 1970s widespread corruption and war profiteering prevailed, not only among the civilian population but also among military officers. Corruption, of course, had long been common in South Vietnam. However, as infiation increased in the 1970’s and military pay failed to keep pace, corrupt practices drove wedges between the troops and their officers. For example, there were reports that the wounded had to pay helicopter pilots to fly medical evacuation missions.

President Thieu did make efforts to remove some of the more corrupt senior officials from office, but his actions proved to be a mere drop in the bucket. Corruption had another adverse effect; it siphoned funds that could have been used to buy critically short supplies and ammunition.

It has been estimated that as much as 25 percent of ARVN’s military payroll was in the name of dead or deserted soldiers who were kept on the roll so that corrupt officers could collect their salaries.

ARVN tank.
United States supplied tank used by the ARVN military in South Vietnam.

Syria

And of course, we could look at Syria.

Do you all think that it is any different? Aside from the new vehicles, the different weapons and drone systems, and the kinds of “news” reporting, do you actually think that somehow the United States is immune from all this boomeranging back?

All you need to so is read some history.

And China…

…well China has a long and horrible history of invasions and abuse. They KNOW what it is like to be hurt, destroyed and sacked. They know.

And if you all think that they are going to allow some pot-bellied neocon from the state of Kansas or Arkansas cheer on a war against them without consequence, then you are very, very, VERY mistaken.

China – Nanjing

Most Americans have absolutely no idea what the Chinese went through and why they are the way they are today.

A person who goes though a divorce is far more understanding of someone in the throes of marital troubles than say an unmarried 20-year old. And this is true about nations as well. Perhaps the American leadership would be very hesitant on poking Russia or China if they knew what it was like to see your beloved homeland reduced to rubble.

The Nanjing Massacre refers to the 40-day slaughter committed by the Japanese army in the early stages of their invasion of China, which cruelly claimed the lives of more than 300,000 civilians and captured soldiers. One third of the city was razed and property losses were beyond count.

Some believe that the Nanjing Massacre, along with Auschwitz Concentration Camp and bombing of Hiroshima (the first use of atomic weapons in combat) were the three greatest tragedies of WWII. Some refer to the massacre as the “Asian Auschwitz.” 

-ChinaToday

Nah…

It would never happen in America. You see, America is “exceptional“.

On December 13, 1937, after seizing Nanjing, the Japanese army carried out a bloody slaughter of unparalleled savagery in violation of international law. 

As stated in the Judgment of the International Military Tribunal for the Far East, "Estimates indicate that the total number of civilians and prisoners of war murdered in Nanjing and its vicinity during the first six weeks of the Japanese occupation was over 200,000....

These figures do not take into account those persons whose bodies were destroyed by burning, or by being thrown into the Yangtze River, or were otherwise disposed of by the Japanese Army." 

The Chinese Military Tribunal for War Crimes in Nanjing stated in a verdict that "during the period from December 12 to 21, 1937, it was estimated that more than 190,000 Chinese prisoners of war and civilians were shot with machine guns in large groups by the Japanese Army and their bodies were incinerated… 

In addition, more than 150,000 people were killed in small or scattered groups, and their bodies were collected and buried by charity organizations. Altogether, more than 300,000 people were murdered." 

After capturing the city, Japanese troops employed all kinds of brutal methods in their killing, such as decapitation, skull splitting, slicing open the stomach, pulling out the heart, drowning, burning, cutting off reproductive organs, dismemberment, and piercing the vulva or anus. 

Equally unthinkable, there was a killing contest between two second lieutenants, Toshiaki Mukai and Tsuyoshi Noda, to see who could win by being the first to kill 100 Chinese. When they met on December 12, Mukai had killed 106 and Noda 105. 

John Rabe, Wilhelmina (Minnie) Vautrin, and John Magee recorded the incidents of rape carried out by Japanese soldiers after the fall of Nanjing in their diaries, photographs, and films. It is roughly estimated that more than 80,000 women were violated in Nanjing, of whom more than 65,000 were killed. 

The Japanese army also committed frenzied acts of arson and looting. According to incomplete statistics calculated after the war, Japanese soldiers looted 2,406 sets and more than 309,000 pieces of appliances or utensils, 5,920 boxes and more than 5.9 million articles of clothing, 710 kilograms of gold and silver, plus 6,345 pieces of jewelry, 1,815 boxes, 2,859 sets, and 148,600 volumes of books, more than 28,400 ancient calligraphy scrolls and paintings, more than 7,300 antiques, more than 6,200 animals bred as livestock, and more than 720 million kilograms of grain. 

The International Military Tribunal for the Far East and the Chinese Military Tribunal for War Crimes in Nanjing, after collecting a large amount of evidence and confirming all the findings, pronounced death sentences for the principal culprits of the massacre, Iwane Matsui, Akira Muto, and Tadayuki Furumi. 

The crimes of the Japanese aggressors will forever be recorded in the history of the Chinese war of resistance against Japan.

-CRI

Or Germany…

Germany

Let’s not forget what happens to “scapegoats” when they are targeted for their “privilege”…

And not just in Germany. all the rest of Europe had to deal with the actions of a handful of crazed fanatics in Germany…

Europe

I suppose that I could go on and on.

And you all would turn off my MM and go watch cute and funny kitty videos, check out the latest vehicles out of Detroit, or look up Tender Pot Roast Recipe.

But all that you are reading…right now… in real time sounds AWFULLY familiar. Throw away the details and the names. Look at what is going on. It sounds like the kind of nonsense out of Sierra Leon in the 1980’s, or the bullshit in Saigon in the 1960’s in South Vietnam. It sounds like the bullshit leading up to “the war on terror” in the Middle East, or the crap nonsense made by Hitler as he demonized the Jews, or the Japanese demonized the Chinese.

Yet somehow…

Somehow, America can have another war with China, or Russia, or Iran or all three, and you know that magically it will happen in far away lands that Americans never herd of before.

You’ve got to be fucking kidding me!

China wants to fight the USA? It’s a nation of leadership by merit. They are not a military Empire like the USA. They just want for Chinese people to live in China free of foreign (namely USA) interference.

This idea that China wants war is ludicrous. It’s just political posturing.

Political Posturing
When someone pretends to have a particular opinion or attitude. This is done so that they can achieve their objectives without discussing the real reasons behind them.

It’s clear as day that the people who are running this (supposedly) Progressive Liberal Democrat administration, are actually war-mongering neocons.

And since this is the case, let me be very clear on my position on these matters.

Anyone who is desirous of a war with Russia, a war with China, a war with Iran are FUCKING evil. What is wrong with these people?

If you don’t think this is really happening, then you probably need to rethink that:

StratCom just issued a warning to Americans that we might be nuked as a result of the Biden Regime escalating tensions with these two nuclear powers.

Yes, they are that crazy.

But is there anyone, anyone at all inside the Pentagon that is really aware of what the stakes are today? Well, read this great article by Pepe…

Yes, and the regular disclaimers abound. All credit to the author. Formatted to fit this venue, etc.

Why the Empire of Chaos is Paralyzed

Fasten your seat belts.

What you are about to read is part of an internal report by one of my top business/intel sources in the Beltway for the past decade and a half. Readers who received it include JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon, Evelyn de Rothschild and wife Lynn, Blackrock’s Larry Fink, Michael Bloomberg – who would never hire me as a Bloomberg columnist… – Blackstone’s Stephen Schwartzman, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and other assorted Masters of the Universe. I received a copy with all their addresses – which for obvious reasons I cannot make public.

This is a MAJOR bombshell – in the sense that the financial Masters of the Universe are now fully aware of sensitive intel not shared with non-military players. The question is what they’re gonna do about it.

The section of the reports starts HERE:

“While Rome burns which I use as an extended metaphor about the hundreds of US cities that burned last summer, and the US faces internal disintegration, the Pentagon admits that the US cannot face a two front war.

The US cannot face a one front war in Europe alone and would be defeated in five to ten minutes. It is not widely known that the key means that the US has chosen conventionally to defend Europe was by its superior airpower which outguns the Russians. However, what also is not widely known is that the US will be defeated in Europe by the Russians in five to ten minutes by the Russian hypersonic missiles destroying all NATO and European commercial airfields including those in England as it merrily sends its warships towards the Kerch Peninsula.

Whether all of our F-35 trillion dollar aircraft will be blown up too in five minutes depends on how fast the US can fly them out of harm’s way to some foreign shore. The remaining key question then is whether the US can evacuate Europe fast enough via a Dunkirk exit to escape to England or whether all the US forces will join their NATO comrades in a Russian prisoners of war camp.

The answer is that it cannot escape as it would take more than the two weeks time to evacuate. This has been confirmed to me by the highest US military authorities.

The US use of recent sanctions on Russia was to send the message that the nation killer that they call SWIFT-CHIPS is in the US toolkit as the US reply to an invasion of the Ukraine. (It goes without saying that Nord Stream Two would be over and the pipeline presently in operation from Russia to Europe would be shut down.) The US thus is sitting back in this poker game in smug self-confidence that the Russians would not dare to invade the Ukraine, causing the US to pull the trigger on throwing Russia out of SWIFT-CHIPS payment system to their Iranian-style doom.

But the US has not seen the Russian cards in their hand yet, which would be to exercise their super financial weapon of closing the Strait of Hormuz with their ally Iran which is willing to cooperate, according to our best intelligence sources.

We have discussed this scenario with the Goldman Sachs derivative specialists in oil who predict the oil price would rise to $500.00 to a $1,000.00 a barrel on such a closing. This would result in a triggering and the implosion of the 600 trillion to 2.5 quadrillion derivative market. In effect, it would end up destroying the entire world financial system.

The cataclysm that would hit the US would lead (as in Germany did in 1933) to a 50% unemployment rate or more. This would automatically begin the instigation of the complete overthrow of the US government. A government right now.  which is barely hanging on by a thread (after last summer’s riots when the US military refused to intervene out of fear that its forces, as in Russia in 1918, would disintegrate along racial lines).

The defeat of the US in Europe would constitute the death knell of the US Empire as when Rome was sacked by Alaric. And make no mistake, there would be cheering all over the world.

[Now comes the killer part, which left me, well, speechless]

The myth of fissures between Russia and China should be dispelled by the following article in the Asia Times. There, where is sitting on Putin’s desk a major offer by a major company to finance the redirection of all oil and natural gas now going to Europe. Instead it would be redirected to China via pipeline.

It would constitute the largest commercial transaction in world history.

China could then depend on receiving from Russia the natural resources that presently come by sea.  And Russia can replace all European imports to Russia by substitution and where that is not possible from China.

This very deep article should be read very carefully. The hundreds of billions of dollars for this project are available today according to the highest intelligence sources.

Here is an important quote from the article:

“A closely guarded secret in Moscow is that right after German sanctions imposed in relation to Ukraine, a major global energy operator approached Russia with an offer to divert to China no less than 7 million barrels a day of oil plus natural gas. Whatever happens, the stunning proposal is still sitting on the table of Shmal Gannadiy, a top oil/gas advisor to President Putin.”

[And then the report links to my story]:

Definitive Eurasian alliance is closer than you think. And things are proceeding well in advance than anyone actually realizes. And America is in no state to take on any major global power as it currently stands. It’s a foolish exercise in futility, and a death sentence for the participants.

Modern America 2021.

So what is going to happen?

I hold no “magic crystal ball”. No one does.

If I could characterize the state of affairs inside the Untied States government today, numerous examples come to mind…

A Train Wreck

A bunch a crazed maniacal megalomaniacs are all crammed in the tiny engine of a locomotive, and everyone is trying to grab the controls to wheel and right this big, long enormous train back onto the tracks safely. Some are just there to stop the others. Some are earnestly trying to put the brakes on. Some are trying to increase the speed. Some are fighting among themselves, and some are lighting firecrackers at everyone's feet to see what will happen next. All are evil, out of control and running amok.

An Alien Monster trying to get out

The United States today is like the Alien monster that has incubated inside the host human (from the Alien movie). It is starting to get out, and the poor host is in a state of panic and fear.

I wrote an article on this theme. It is HERE.

Evil psychopath child playing with live dynamite

This is what it looks like. Especially after the "Long Telegram", and the Alaska meeting between China and the USA.

A suicidal man trying to get killed intentionally

It's almost that the people inside of Washington DC have no scruples, no idea of what reality is, and believe that they are somehow sitting on thrones in the clouds somewhere in their magical city of Olympus. Do they have a "death wish"? It most certainly seems that way, doesn't it?

What will happen, I don’t know. But keep your eyes open. Realize that the only idiots are in Washington DC and their colonies in the UK, and Australia. The rest of the world are watching from the spectator stands with popcorn in their right hand, and a Civil-Defense helmet in their left hand.

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Speculation on what the false flag will be to launch a war against China

"... if they (the psychopaths) keep playing "chicken" with Russia & China, they'll get it-sooner, rather than later"

This is going to be a pretty harsh article. We are not going to “dance around” any of the issues. Instead we are going to spell (or spit) it out directly. If you aren’t ready for it you can leave.

First of all, the Untied States has spent a good portion of the last twelve years building up a narrative towards a major global-wide war with China. The last four years (2016 through 2020) has really placed the Targeting Reticule on China, and you have to be delusional not to notice it.

And let’s be real about it, as well.

You can pretend that it’s a “cold war”, or it’s a “hybrid war”, or perhaps a simple “trade war”. But that’s just dancing around the raw and harsh facts. It’s a build up to a “hot shooting war” and you just simply cannot avoid that reality.

Most people avoid the harsh reality because [1] they don’t want to believe it, and [2] they are not given all the information of what if going on.

How many Americans know about the American drones spraying swine flu to devastate the pig industry in 2018? How many Americans know about the tit-for-tat attacks on the VTOL aircraft carriers in 2020? How many Americans are aware of the differences between the COVID-19A and the COVID-19B strains.

Very, very few.

It’s been exceptionally hot. And the only way that you can keep abreast of the latest run of attacks is to read the neocon publications out of the K-street military-industrial network in Washington DC.

Propaganda campaigns, and hybrid wars ALWAYS end up in a hot shooting war. There is not one single instance where it did not. Not once.

And people (!) all hot wars that America initiates requires an ignition event to launch. And if one cannot be found, then a fake event is created. These events are called “false flags”.

What is a “False Flag”?

A false flag operation is an act committed with the intent of disguising the actual source of responsibility and pinning blame on another party. The term is popular amongst conspiracy theory promoters in referring to covert operations of various governments and cabals.

-Wikipedia

The following is from History.com, All credit to the author.

On the night of the 31st of August 1939, several covert Nazi operatives dressed as Polish soldiers stormed the Gleiwitz radio tower on the Germany-Poland border. They broadcast a short anti-German message in Polish before leaving. The soldiers left behind the bodies of a pro-Polish German farmer and several unidentifiable Dachau concentration camp prisoners. The farmer and the prisoners had been murdered and dressed up in German uniforms.

The attack was part of a series of covert actions along the Polish border that the Nazis would use to justify Germany’s attack on Poland the following day. Gleiwitz was a classic ‘false flag’ operation.

So, what is meant by the term ‘false flag’? Originally, the phrase was coined for the practice of pirate ships flying the colors of other nations to deceive merchant ships into thinking they were dealing with a friendly vessel. While the pirates would usually unfurl their true colors just before attacking, the wrong flag would sometimes continue to be flown throughout an attack, hence the term ‘attacking under a false flag’. Over time, the term ‘false flag’ came to be applied to any covert operation that sought to shift the responsibility on to a different party from the one carrying it out, as was the case with the Nazis at Gleiwitz.

One of the most famous incidents considered by many to be a false flag operation is the Reichstag fire, which took place on the night of the 27th of February 1933. A lone communist sympathizer called Marinus van de Lubbe was arrested and charged with setting fire to the German parliament building. This gave Hitler and his propaganda minister, Joseph Goebbels, the excuse they needed to purge Germany of opposition, especially the communists. The sweeping emergency powers Hitler and the Nazi Party grabbed for themselves after the fire are the reason many people think the Reichstag was burned not by a lone communist protesting Germany’s treatment of the working classes (as van de Lubbe himself claimed while in custody), but by the Nazis themselves.

Of course, it isn’t just the Americans and the Europeans who have been accused of participating in false flag operations over the years. Between 1979 and 1983, the Israeli secret services stand accused of instigating a series of car bomb attacks in Lebanon that killed hundreds of Lebanese and Palestinians. Though the bombings were claimed by the terrorist organization, the Front for the Liberation of Lebanon from Foreigners, many believe the bombs were set off by the Israelis to sew dissent throughout the region and justify an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Though an Israeli general has admitted the attacks were carried out by his country, the official line is still that Israel was not involved.

In the modern era, things become a little murkier. Whether a modern-day false flag operation is real or not is now a matter to be bitterly fought over on the Internet.

To many online conspiracy theorists, the biggest false flag operation of all time was the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Many believe that these attacks were deliberately carried out by the US government as a way to justify the subsequent attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq, which they believe were carried out to install a gas pipeline across Afghanistan and to seize the oil wealth of Iraq.

Many ‘9/11 Truthers’ point out discrepancies in the official report into the destruction of the World Trade Center, focusing primarily on the collapse of the Twin Towers and 7 World Trade Center. They argue that the towers could not have been brought down by plane strike and fire alone, be must instead have been brought down by another means, such as by controlled demolition. The claims that 9/11 was an inside job have been vigorously disputed both by the US government and various experts many times, but it is highly unlikely the myriad of conspiracy theories swirling around 9/11 will ever go away.

Accusations of false flag operations have continued right up to the present day. One of the most widely-disputed and discussed is the Sandy Hook Elementary School shootings of 2012, which has been laid at the door of the US Government.

People who refuse to believe the shootings were the act of a lone gunman allege twenty students and six staff were deliberately murdered so stricter gun controls could be imposed on the US population. Skeptics point to the attack coinciding with President Barack Obama’s announcement that he would sign restrictive small arms legislation. The convenient timing of the attack could then be used by the president as the excuse he needed to impose new restrictions, hence why it must have been a false flag operation. Again, like 9/11, it is highly unlikely that the theories surrounding the tragic attack will ever die down.

We now live in an age where, to some at least, nothing is as it seems, everything can be labelled a conspiracy and no amount of evidence to the contrary will change people’s minds.

There have been several documented false flag operations throughout history, and the existence of them goes some way to explaining why thousands upon thousands of people all around the world believe many more covert operations have been carried out regardless of government claims to the contrary.

Why does the United States want to start a war with China?

The following is from Global Research. Reprinted as found, all credit to the author and edited to fit this venue. The original title of the article is: "China-US Relations and Biden’s “Global Death Trap”: The World Is Facing Another Cold War Which May Become Hot, Even Very Hot" by Prof. Joseph H. Chung Global Research, April 09, 2021.

In Anchorage, Alaska, on 18-19 March 2021, top diplomats of China and the U.S. met and declared the new Cold War. The U.S. side was represented by Anthony Blinken, Secretary of State and Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor, while China was represented, by Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister and Yang Jiechi, top diplomat of China. 

Anthony Blinken said ” China’s actions pose a threat to a rule-based order designed to maintain global stability:”

Translation: “You unthankful China, listen carefully! Do not dare challenge the world in which Washington feels comfortable. Otherwise!” This is the declaration of the cold war.

On his part, Wang Yi said: “Beijing is firmly against US interference in domestic affairs. We will take firm actions in our response.”  “Most countries in the world do not recognize US values as global values.”

Translation: “Listen You Washington,. China has done a lot for you. China has something to tell you! China has had enough of your bullying. If Washington wants to fight, well, China is ready!

Two days later…

On March 22, Wang Yi, foreign minister of China and Sergei Lavrov, foreign minister of Russia met to protest against Washington’s sanction imposed on Russia and China.

The very next day, on March 23, Xi Jinping, president of China and Kim Jong-un, president of North Korea exchanged letters for mutual cooperation. This is the beginning of China’s recruiting of cold war alliances.

All these events mean one thing. The Global Cold War has begun and the world will be divided once again between the West and the East and the Cold War is likely to become Global Hot War and we will be all dead.

Before I begin, I would like tell this to Beijing and Washington!

In 2020, the combined GDP of China and the U.S. was 35 trillion USD, or 42% of the global GDP of 84 trillion USD.

You China and the U.S. listen! You have become rich and powerful, because the world has worked hard for you. The world has provided low-cost labor, high quality raw materials and people’s precious savings; the world has bought your products.

Remember! The world belongs to every human being and every country.

Please behave like responsible global super powers. You have no right to ruin the world with your hegemonic fight.

So, China and the U.S. please stop the dreadful cold war and take responsibility of assuring global peace, safety and prosperity.

*

In this paper, I am asking these questions.

  • Why does Washington declare the new cold war now?
  • What are the American objectives of the cold war?
  • What are the cold war Strategies of the U.S. and China?
  • Can Washington win the cold war?
  • Can the hot war happen?
  • What will be the impact of the Sino-American war on the humanity?

Why does Washington declare the New Cold War Now?

When it comes to the economy, the language betrays the reality all too clearly. The Trump administration’s economic struggle with China is regularly described, openly and without qualification, as a “war.” And there’s no doubt that senior White House officials, beginning with the president and his chief trade representative, Robert Lighthizer (image on the right), see it just that way: as a means of pulverizing the Chinese economy and so curtailing that country’s ability to compete with the United States in all other measures of power.

-Global Research

There are two possible reasons for Washington’s decision to declare the Cold war against China, a war which actually began since Barack Obama’s Asia Pivot.

The first reason is that Joe Biden needs an enemy dangerous enough to unify the American people and to deal with [1] the impossible task of restoring the economy and [2] justify the raison d’être of the existence of the government.

The Pearl Harbor attack was devastating enough to wake up the sleeping Americans to unite and follow the Washington’s leadership. But I wonder if the Chinese challenge is grave enough to unify the Americans and trust Washington and cooperate for the policy of restoring the economy.

The second reason is more convincing. It is matter of coping with the Chinese economic threat when China’s military challenge is still manageable. The Chinese economy is catching up with the U.S. economy at a threatening rate, while the Chinese military capability is still far weaker than American military capacity. In other words, Washington has decided to hit hard Beijing when it is still a weak attacker and get rid of the economic threat.

I have done some calculations to see the evolution of economic and military power of the two super powers. I have assumed that the Chinese GDP will increase per year, at a compound growth rate of 5 %, from US$ 15.42 trillion in 2020 to $ 24.98 trillion in 2031, or a accumulated increase of 62%. As for the United States, it is assumed that its GDP will increase by 2% a year from $20.93 trillion in 2020 to $25.32 trillion in 2031, or accumulated increase of 21%.

This means that, in 2020, the Chinese GDP was 73.6% of the U.S. GDP to reach 98.7% in 2031. This is surely threatening to Washington.

Thus, the Chinese GDP is expected to catch up with the U.S. economy in ten years. But, we have a different picture as far as military strength is concerned.

We have examined the 10-year evolution of national defense budget of the two countries. It is assumed that the share of the defense budget in the GDP will remain the same throughout the 10 year period. The Chinese 2020 national defense share was 1.15% of GDP yielding $ 178 billion. In 2031.The Chinese defense budget will be $287 billion. Now, for the U.S. in 2020, the national defense budget was $730 billion, or 3.6% of GDP, this rate is applied for 2031 to get $911 billion.

This means that despite rapid rise, the Chinese catching up for the defense budget is much slower than the case of GDP. In fact, in 2020, the amount of Chinese national defense expenditures was 24.5% of that of the American national defense budget to increase only to 30.2% in 2031. This may allow Washington to feel safe as far as the Chinese military threat is concerned.

So, Washington’s strategy is to strike China before the Chinese economy catches up with the U.S. economy while Beijing’s is still “militarily weak”. 

What are the Objectives of the U.S. initiated Cold War?

An examination of the demands submitted to Chinese negotiators by the U.S. trade delegation last May suggests, however, that Washington’s primary intent hasn’t been to rectify that trade imbalance but to impede China’s economic growth. Among the stipulations Beijing must acquiesce to before receiving tariff relief, according to leaked documents from U.S. negotiators that were spread on Chinese social media:

[1] halting all government subsidies to advanced manufacturing industries in its Made in China 2025 program, an endeavor that covers 10 key economic sectors, including aircraft manufacturing, electric cars, robotics, computer microchips, and artificial intelligence;

[2] accepting American restrictions on investments in sensitive technologies without retaliating;

[3] opening up its service and agricultural sectors — areas where Chinese firms have an inherent advantage — to full American competition.

In fact, this should be considered a straightforward declaration of economic war. Acquiescing to such demands would mean accepting a permanent subordinate status vis-à-vis the United States in hopes of continuing a profitable trade relationship with this country. 

“The list reads like the terms for a surrender rather than a basis for negotiation,” was the way Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University, accurately described these developments.

The principal objectives of the Cold War is to prevent China from becoming a Global Power threatening the accumulated interests of the U.S. and its allies.

-Global Resource

What are the Cold War Strategies of the U.S. and China?

The weapons of the New Cold War are likely to include the following:

  • Security Alliance War
  • Ideological War
  • Economic War
  • Security War

Security Alliance War

The security alliance is designed to maximize the “friendly supports” for the country’s war efforts. On this ground, the U.S. has a definite upper hand. Actually, China has only a few alliances; its potential alliances would include North Korea, Russia, Cambodia, Myanmar and Pakistan. But, there is no guarantee that these potential alliances will help China in a  Sino-American war. On the other hand, Washington has a lot of alliances.

The U.S. has many security alliances in the East Asian region: the U.S.-Japan Security Alliance, the U.S.-South Korea Security Alliance, the U.S.-Australia Security Alliance, the U.S.-the Philippines Security Alliance. The U.S. has security partnership with Singapore and Taiwan.

The U.S. has the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) composed of Australia, India, Japan and the U.S.

Moreover, there was the TPP (Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership) led by Washington. It had 12 member countries. Since Trump withdrew, it has become CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership) with 11 member countries. But, Biden might rejoin it, because it is supposed to be a free-trade alliance, but, in reality, it is a part of China-containment alliance. It includes five East Asian countries: Brunei, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. In addition, most of the East Asian countries have some sorts of security cooperation with Washington. Thus, the U.S. has a lot of countries with which it has security related relations.

But, the question is whether these security alliances will join the U.S.-initiated anti-China war. They may cooperate with Washington as long as the cold war remains cold. However, what they should do is to persuade Washington to end the cold war, for it is the best way to keep their economy going in peace.

This is suggested by Graham Allison, the author of his famous book, “Destined for War: Can America and China escape Thucydides Trap?” (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Boston-New York, 2017) 

Ideological War

The purpose of the ideological war is to demonize the rival country in order to justify the country’s war on the one hand, and on the other, to maximize global support for the war.

The ideological war relies on the following weapons:

  • Human Right Violations
  • Freedom of the Press
  • Violation of law-Based Rules
  • Authoritarianism
  • Assertiveness
  • Violation of the UNCLOS

Human Right Violations:

The U.S. accuses China for violating minority groups’ rights to maintain autonomous values and political system. But, Beijing argues that it upholds the rights of minority groups. China would say that it has to intervene in order to prevent minority regions from becoming independent, thus threatening the sovereignty of China.

China may ask Washington how it would react, if the State of Alaska fights for its separation from the United States. Moreover, China openly criticises widespread human right violations in the U.S. against minority groups including the Black Africans, Native Indians and other minority groups.

The Canadian Human Right Commission defines human rights as the fundamental right of all human beings for a life of dignity, respect and equality. Hence, all human beings have rights to enjoy public goods such as health, education, housing, racial equality, physical safety on the street. These rights may be violated not only by the government but also by individuals and institutions. Any government which fails to protect these rights is violator of human rights.

In the mainstream media, the perception of human rights violation is limited to the harsh measures taken by the government. The human rights issue has become a political tool in international relations. The debate on human rights issue should, on the contrary, focus on a solution to human rights violations rather than political gain.

In regards to Washington’s policy of China’s human rights violations, I am quite puzzled by its lack of consistency. In fact, for decades since the time of Richard Nixon to the era of Barack Obama, human rights violations in China was not a major issue.

Joe Biden makes human right the key issues in Sino-American relations. Why? Is it because he considers China as a threat to U.S. hegemony?

Freedom of the Press:

The American media criticizes China for lack of the freedom of press. It is true that the press in China is closely managed by the State in order to minimize criticism of government policies. China may react by asking if there is freedom of press in the U.S. China may ask if the American press is free to criticize large corporations which finance the media.

Here, I may ask one question which may interest both China and the U.S.

Is the freedom of the press the raison d’être of the press? What happens, if the free press is biased and behaves in such a way that it is harmful to the welfare of the ordinary people? The Korean press is the freest press in the world, owing to the liberal policies of the government of Moon Jae-in.

Unfortunately 98% of the press present biased report, fabricate stories, publish lies in order to protect the corrupted vested interests of the conservatives accumulated for 70 years; the press is the integral part of the corruption; its sole purpose is to destroy the liberal government and retake the power so that it could enjoy the privileges and wealth provided by the corruption culture. The freedom of press is important, but without political neutrality, it can hurt the nation.

In fact, in the context of the Sino-U.S. cold war, one of the most dangerous weapons is the press. Unfortunately, the press gives itself the mission of demonizing the enemy through lies, biased reports, presenting prepared horror pictures. In a way, the outcome of the New Cold War depends largely on the “press war”. So, my humble wish is that the press in the U.S. and China give itself the mission of stopping the Sino-American cold war and not intensifying it.

Law-Based Rules:

If there is any universal consensus in the West, it is the belief that China does not respect law-based rules. But, we seldom find any concrete incidences where China violates such rules.

The trouble is that rules cannot cover all things and all behaviors. Besides, rules must evolve in function of the need of the time. There are hundreds of reports and research papers which give the impression that China does not respect the international rules. But seldom do they point out which laws are violated. If China is such a violator of international laws, how could it trade with other countries and how could it realize the economic miracle without respecting international laws? Have any international institutions including IMF, WTO, WHO and other international institutions complained about China’s not respecting international laws?

China would react. First, it may ask Washington to provide the actual cases of China’s rule violation. In addition, China may add that most of the international rules being conceived and imposed by the U.S., they may not be suitable for countries of different cultures and judicial traditions. Therefore, China might suggest a reform of the international laws more flexible and inclusive.

Authoritarianism:

Another favorite pass time topic in Washington elite circle and media is the sins of China’s authoritarian regime. This is rather amazing, because the U.S. is a lover of authoritarian regimes in numerous countries, provided these regimes are good boys obeying Washington’s command.

Washington loved General Park Chung-hee and General Jun Doo-hwan for their oppressive authoritarian regime, because they were obedient to Washington.

Chiang Kai-sek was a more than an authoritarian dictator in Taiwan, but he was an asset for America’s China policy.

China may tell the U.S. not to worry about the authoritarian character of the Chinese political regime. China may tell Americans that the authoritarianism has been the core of Chinese values and culture. Besides, as a country of 1.5 billion people with more than a hundred dialects and constant threats of [US supported] independence of minority regions, China needs a strong top-down authoritarian decision-making process.

China’s Assertiveness:

China is accused also for its being assertive with its BRI project, its relations with ASEAN countries and, especially, its militarization of the South China Sea.

China is accused for its assertiveness in connection with its Belt-Road Initiative (BRI). The often quoted incident of such assertiveness is the China’s debt-trap applied to Sri Lanka. However, according to studies by Sri Lankans, the story of debt trap is a lie or misunderstanding by so-called China haters. The project of the Hambantato Port was initiated by current prime minister (former president) in the early 2000s.

It was a purely commercial project and managed by a Chinese government-owned enterprise (GOE). Sri Lanka excessively borrowed money from Western financial institutions including the IMF. Sri Lanka’s debt was so high that the cost of servicing the debts represents 44% of government revenue; this is the debt trap which has nothing to do with the BRI. In fact, Chinese loans represent mere 9% of Sri Lankan government debt. The Hambantato Port is leased for 99 years managed by a Chinese enterprise, CMPort. Sri Lanka has to pay the debt to China for the loans. By the way, the port cannot be used by Chinese navy.

China is accused also for bullying South East Asian countries. This is contentious, according to several studies, these countries do not experience Chinese political assertiveness. On the contrary, Chinese soft business diplomacy is greatly appreciated.

Moreover, China’s productive participation in the activities of ASEAN, APT (ASEAN plus Three), ARF (Asia Regional Forum), EAS (East Asia Summits), RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) Shangri-La Dialogue, and numerous FTAs is highly valued. Even those countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam which have security cooperation with Washington do not feel the pressure of apparent Chinese assertiveness.

Chinese assertiveness which is the most criticized is its alleged military assertiveness. To see more clearly the nature of China’s military assertiveness, we need to study its evolution, which shows that China’s assertiveness was the reaction to American assertiveness.

In 2008, The U.S. joined the TPSEP (Trans-pacific Strategic Economic Partnership) which became later the TPP (Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership) which was more a security alliances than FTA (Free Trade Agreement).

In March 2009, China was under surveillance by an American vessel’s surveillance activities near Hainan Island, the key Chinese navy port.

In September, 2009, the U.S. adopted the Air and Sea Battle (ASB) which was another threat to Chinese A2/AD (Anti-Air/Area-Denied) strategy.

In 2010, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the U.S. had interests in the South China Sea, meaning the strong military presence in Asia.

In 2012, Barack Obama announced the Asia-Pivot or “Rebalancing” of American military might in favour of the Asia-Pacific region. It is important to point out here that this series of Washington’s assertive activities hostile to China inevitably invited China’s assertive actions.

In fact, in the period, 2013-2014, China extended its ADIZ (Air-Defence Identification Zone) to as far as the region of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Island.

In September 2013, China started its Island-Building operations in the South China Sea.

In 2013, a Chinese navy vessel dangerously approached USS Cowpens, U.S. navy guided-missile destroyer.

Thus, Chinese assertiveness was, largely, the counter defensive actions to the American assertiveness. In short, so called, Chinese assertiveness, cannot not be used for China denunciation.

The building of the South China Sea islands and the militarization of these islands have been the principal object of China demonization. In fact, this operation started in 2013 and completed in 2016. Several reefs including the Mischief Reef, the Subi Reef and the Fiery Reef all became islands armed with missile launch facilities and airstrips for jet fighters. The reason behind this operation may be the fear of blockade of the South China Sea by the U.S. and its allies, a military operation which will make China to starve to death.

Unfortunately, the American assertive actions followed by Chinese counter actions have inevitably led to the deterioration of the Washington-Beijing relations.

In 2014, Barack Obama visited Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore in order to strengthen the China containment operations. What is disturbing is the fact that Barack Obama promised Shinzo Abe, Japanese prime minister, that the U.S. would be ready to intervene, if  a Japan-China conflict took the form of military confrontation. Obama did not, however, commit himself to US military intervention. In contrast, Biden’s Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, promised, during his recent visit to Japan, US military intervention in case of China-Japan confrontation involving the Diaoyu/Senkaku Island. This is indeed a dangerous decision on the part of the U.S.

Violation of UNCCLOS:

Another item on the China demonization menu is the theory that China does not respect the UNCLOS (UN Convention of the Law of Sea) and that China prevents free maritime traffic in the South China Sea. But, there is no actual evidence of China’s violation of free maritime traffic in the South China Sea.

To sum up, the Sino-U.S. ideological war has failed to make China’s regime to deserve global suspicion and denunciation.

Washington has no assurance that the region’s neighbouring countries would rally behind the U.S. because of China’s regime and ideology. This does not mean, however, that China is the winner. . 

Economic War 

As suggested by America’s trade demands, Washington’s intent is not only to hobble China’s economy today and tomorrow but for decades to come. This has led to an intense, far-ranging campaign to deprive it of access to advanced technologies and to cripple its leading technology firms.

Chinese leaders have long realized that, for their country to achieve economic and military parity with the United States, they must master the cutting-edge technologies that will dominate the twenty-first-century global economy,

-Global Research

As I pointed out above, in ten years, Chinese economy will catch up with the U.S. economy assuming that the American GDP will increase by 2% per year, while the Chinese GDP will rise by 5% per year. My assumptions may be wrong, but one thing which is certain is that China’s GDP will soon catch up with that of the US.

There are several reasons:

First, the Chinese per capita is about $11,000 meaning that there is a lot of room for further growth, while in the U.S. where the per capita GDP is $63,000 the potential growth is approaching its limit.

Second, under the intensification of the trade war, the diversification of trade partners becomes strategic. The American trade partners being highly developed countries, the diversification of trade partners will not be a great help, whereas, China’s trade partners being Asian countries with high growth rate, its trade partner diversification will be an advantage.

Third, the U.S., the economy being dependent on high technology, economic growth is unable to create jobs and it creates unequal income distribution at the expense of ordinary Americans, which in the long run, it will slow down the growth of the American economy.

Fourth, the U.S. economy is excessively dependent on the domestic market, the strength of which is the consumer demand. Remember that, in the U.S., the consumer demand accounts for as much as 70% of GDP as against 50% in China. The consumer demand requires strong middle-income class. Unfortunately, in the U.S. the rising inequality of income distribution has almost destroyed the middle class, which will make it difficult to sustain the domestic market.

The COVID-19 crisis has worsened the problem. In short, it will be difficult to stop the Chinese economy from catching up with the American economy.

Security War

As we saw above, it is more than possible that by 2031, Chinese GDP will have caught up with the U.S. GDP. Moreover, if China allocates 3% of its GDP, instead of the present 1.15 %, its military spending will be $ 749 billion, or 82% of Washington’s military expenditures.

The U.S. may beef up its striking force by deploying its 3rd fleet to strengthen the power of its Sea Air Battle (ASB). China will be able to improve its 2A/AD strategy. So, there will be no clear cut winner.

Under such circumstance, God knows what will happen, if China and the U.S. start to “shoot one another”. The message is clear. The shooting war will bring the dooms day for us all. The dooms day will come, if bloody cold war continues.

Can Washington win the Cold War?

The answer is: “it cannot.”

There are several reasons for this.

First, it seems clear that none of the anti-China strategies will give clear upper hand to Washington. In fact, none of the China demonization tactics, the economic war and the military confrontation promises Washington’s victory.

Second, since the fall of the Berlin Wall of 1989, the ideological difference has been much diluted. Hence, the anti-China antagonism is much weaker than it was during the Soviet-U.S. cold war. The implication is that Washington will have difficulties in ganging up its supporters, which will make American offensive uncertain victory.

Third, China being the world’s factory and the world’s consumer market, most of the U.S. allies will be reluctant to support the cold war.

Fourth, the decadence of the U.S.-led neo-liberal economic system and the world wide corruption of the American version of democracy will make it difficult to attract U.S. sympathizers.

In short, neither the U.S. nor China can be the winner. In their cold war, there will be no winner. If there is one, it will be the suffering of all humanity.

If the U.S. cannot win the cold war, that is, if it cannot prevent China from catching up the U.S. economy and the U.S. power, it means that Washington has failed to attain its objectives.

Then, Washington might decide to declare a hot war.

But, American generals and admirals know very well that China is not the (former) Soviet Union and that China is much stronger and richer than the Soviet Union. Moreover, there will be few allies including the UK which will join Washington’s shooting war fight.

However, misguided political leaders might make dangerous decisions to venture into a “shooting war with China” to save the honor and the glory of the U.S. At any rate, we must all try to stop the shooting war, because it will destroy what the humanity has built so far.

Thus, neither the U.S. nor China can win the cold war.

The hot war will kill us all.

So, the only way out for Washington is to admit China as co-leader of the world and cooperate for the global security, safety, peace and prosperity.

There are so many areas where they should cooperate and lead including public health, climate change, natural disasters and terrorism. There are so many global enemies that we need the U.S. and China to deal with these enemies.

Can the Hot War happen?

As Admiral Davidson suggests, one possible outcome of the ongoing cold war with China could be armed conflict of the traditional sort. Such an encounter, in turn, could escalate to the nuclear level, resulting in mutual annihilation. A war involving only “conventional” forces would itself undoubtedly be devastating and lead to widespread suffering, not to mention the collapse of the global economy.

-Global Research

The hot war should not happen, but it can.

The possible flash points of shooting war are the South China Sea, the East China Sea, Taiwan, North Korea especially the Dioayu/Senkaku Island. But, none of these flashpoint countries is likely to lead to shooting war with one exception, namely the Dioayu/Senkaku Island.

Major wars are often sparked by allies of major powers. Graham Allison in his Book (pp 34-38) tells us that the Peloponnesian war between Athena and Sparta, started because of the conflict between Corinth, alley of Sparta and Megara, alley of Athena. In fact, for this reason, Allison is saying that Washington’s plan of expanding security alliances is a very risky game.

If there is any Washington’s ally  which might ignite war with China, it will be Japan. (Graham Allison, pp.178-179) There are many reasons. But, I may point out two of them. First, Japan is a military might; its Self Defence Force (SDF) is the third most powerful military force in Asia and it will be much more strengthened by Washington, if the Cold War continues. Incidentally, despite the Peace Constitution, the SDF can go to war and assist the U.S. forces. That is, Japan can participate in the Sino-American war.

The second reason is Japan’s ambition to rule the world. For last 70 years, Japan has been ruled by far-right imperial nationalist conservatives who dream of reviving the Japan of the pre-WWII era.

This extreme right-wing of Japanese politics is inspired by the Japan Conference, led by imperialist symbolized by Shinzo Abe and encouraged by Washington, The Sino-American war provides a golden opportunity for Japan to rearm and realize its dream.

There are four psychic elements which might induce Japan to get into a war against China. These elements are the Hak-Ko-Ichi-U, the Tanaka Memorial of 1929, Shintoism and Bushido.

The Hak-ko-Ichi-U means that the single roof (Japan) should rule the eight corners (the world). This psychic was well represented by the Tanaka Memorial which argued that it was Japan’s sacred destiny to conquer Manchuria for raw materials using Korea as the royal high way to Manchuria, then conquer China for slave labour, then the rest of Asia, and then the U.S.(Pearl Harbour).

Shintoism is back and the Japanese accept the Emperor as God. Bushido has returned and the Japanese people seek redemption by dying for the Emperor. True, many of ordinary Japanese are free from such psychic, but they have no power to participate in Japan’s national policy.

What could happen is Japan’s provocation of military confrontation in the Dioayu/Senkaku Island. Japan could be tempted to provoke war against China just like it did in Manchuria in 1930 and Nanking in 1937.

Moreover, Washington might welcome the Sino-Japan war, not only because it can ruin China and but also the fight between Asian powers would weaken Asia facilitating Washington’s control of Asia. This is something the world should be concerned with. To avoid this, the U.S. should dissolve its security alliance with Japan. For that matter, to avoid shooting war, the U.S. should dissolve all its security alliances.

What we need is huge anti-war alliances including Japan, South Korea and other Washington’s alliances. The same goes for Chinese alliances, although it has few alliances. The ultimate mission of the anti-war alliances is to prevent the super powers from getting into war so that humanity can be saved from total annihilation.

What would be the Impact of the Sino-American War on humanity?

There is no point of talking about the consequences of a hot war, because it is bound to lead to nuclear war and the end of human civilization.

So we will not talk about it…

If Nuclear War is avoided…

Even if a shooting war doesn’t erupt, however, a long-term geopolitical war of attrition between the U.S. and China will, in the end, have debilitating and possibly catastrophic consequences for both sides. Take the trade war, for example. If that’s not resolved soon in a positive manner, continuing high U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will severely curb Chinese economic growth and so weaken the world economy as a whole, punishing every nation on Earth, including this one. High tariffs will also increase costs for American consumers and endanger the prosperity and survival of manyfirms that rely on Chinese raw materials and components.

This new brand of war will also ensure that already sky-high defense expenditures will continue to rise, diverting funds from vital needs like education, health, infrastructure, and the environment.  Meanwhile, preparations for a future war with China have already become the number one priority at the Pentagon, crowding out all other considerations. “While we’re focused on ongoing operations,” acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan reportedly told his senior staff on his first day in office this January, “remember China, China, China.”

Perhaps the greatest victim of this ongoing conflict will be planet Earth itself and all the creatures, humans included, who inhabit it. As the world’s top two emitters of climate-altering greenhouse gases, the U.S. and China must work together to halt global warming or all of us are doomed to a hellish future. With a war under way, even a non-shooting one, the chance for such collaboration is essentially zero. The only way to save civilization is for the U.S. and China to declare peace and focus together on human salvation.

-Global Research

What interests us is the consequence of the cold war. One thing sure is that the longer it lasts, greater become its negative impact. The cold war is likely to have the following impacts.

  • Globalization impact
  • Political and ideological Impact
  • Economic Impact

Globalization impact: the world will be de-globalized and decoupled. There will be Washington-led bloc and China-led bloc. There will be regional globalization led by Washington and Beijing.

Political and Ideological Impact: there will be emergence of two political and ideological blocs. The China bloc will have varying types of political regimes including hybrid regimes, while the U.S. bloc will maintain liberal democracy. Washington’s ambition of evangelical propagation of its democracy will be compromised.

Economic Impact: there will be China-led free trade bloc in which member countries’ sovereignty is respected and trade negotiations will allow accommodations for member countries specific needs. On the other hand, there will be Washington-led free trade bloc in which member countries sovereignty is minimized and the trade negotiations are likely to be controlled by large corporations.

It is difficult to estimate the cost of the cold war. The Rand Corporation is reported to suggest that the American GDP will fall by 30% because of the cold war. It could be more than that because of the pronounced interdependence of national economies. One thing sure is that the longer the cold war lasts, the greater will become the cost.

To conclude, we have to stop, at all costs, the Sino-American Cold War which will surely throw  humanity into the deep and dark bottom of the Thucydides Trap.

It is not too late for academics, research centers, thin-tanks, social movements, decent media and, above all, people’s organizations at the grassroots to launch anti-cold war movements throughout the world.

So what is the ignition going to be?

Well, I do disagree with the author above. I believe that we NEED to discuss the very real and very strong possibility of a hot war between the USA and China / Russia. After all, that is what the neocon publications and the military-industrial think tanks on “K-street” and Washington DC beltway have all been chattering about these last few years.

We just cannot ignore it.

Pretend that it will go away if we don’t mention it. Like in the article above.

So, seriously, what kinds of “false flags” can we expect to get the American population all hot and bothered and ready to march off and attack China?

Nuclear Detonation on American soil.

No. China is not going to randomly launch a nuclear weapon on a “sacrificial” city in America. They are not idiots. But the American population might believe the narrative, and thus it is a real possibility of a pending false flag. All it takes is an American made nuke detonated on American soil, and then unleash the dogs of propaganda blaming China, then immediately gear-up Congress into a war footing.

Japan
This is the kind of thing that launched World War II with the bombing of Pearl Harbor.

Middle East War on Terror
As well as the eight wars in the Middle East against terror by the plane attacks on the World Trade Center on 9-11.

Syria
Reasons for War "States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger." –George W. Bush,

Blaming China for the Global Pandemic and having a “smoking gun”.

You get Americans all upset about some aspect of their life, then you “prove” that it was caused by the Chinese. For instance the inconvenience of the Coronavirus pandemic, is a good target to direct anger towards.

Bosnia
This is one of the more complex reasons to start a war. An event, often beyond anyone's control sparks a breakup of society, and the changes are often uncomfortable. Such as the pandemic. Certain forces use this period of societal upset to initiate war. Such is the case with Bosnia.  

In 1990, as Yugoslavia collapsed, the first multiparty elections were held. These elections created nationalist parties intent on perpetuating ethno-national identities and causes. By 1992, war was being imposed through Serbian and Croatian nationalists seeking to expanded into “greater”national territory. 

In the coming years the perpetrators of “ethnic cleansing,”displacement, mass atrocity, and genocide, were rewarded by the international community at the Dayton Accords in 1995. Dayton ended the war, but then imposed an ethno-nationalistic portioned Bosnia. A “tycoon class”of nationalist leaders continues to enrich themselves through corruption supported by poverty, fear, insecurity, and the promotion of divisive ethnic identities. 

"The hate didn’t exist before; it was artificially installed. It was all so unbelievable that at first, it seemed funny...The emphasis on ethnicity and exclusion was so strong that ethnic hatred became normalized...There is also the ideology of religion and nationality...Never has there been more religion and less faith...National and religious identities are openly used as weapons in the political arsenal.

–Vedran Grahovac, Prijedor"

An assassination of an American Politician inside Washington DC.

This is a very common technique, and there have been numerous Hollywood movies based on this theme.

World War I
This was the kind of event that started World War I. World War 1 started when Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria was assassinated on June 28, 1914. This was the immediate cause but there were a series of events which triggered the war. 

Rwanda
It's also the kind of thing that started the civil war in Rwanda. The genocide was sparked by the death of the Rwandan President Juvenal Habyarimana, a Hutu, when his plane was shot down above Kigali airport on 6 April 1994.

The need to rescue or save people

Maybe the people in Xinjiang, those “poor Muslims”, or Tibet, or Taiwan, or Hong Kong. So many areas that the United States has been prepping for actionable “color revolution”.

Panama
The United States invades Panama in an attempt to overthrow military dictator Manuel Noriega, who had been indicted in the United States on drug trafficking charges and was accused of suppressing democracy in Panama and endangering U.S. nationals. Noriegas Panamanian Defense Forces (PDF) were promptly crushed, forcing the dictator to seek asylum with the Vatican anuncio in Panama City, where he surrendered on January 3, 1990.

When American is attacked by military forces

As unlikely as it appears, there is nothing to prevent the US government to stage a “false flag” to make it look like some military attacked America. That’s what it did to pull America into the war in Vietnam.

The American Civil War
The bloodiest four years in American history begin when Confederate shore batteries under General P.G.T. Beauregard open fire on Union-held Fort Sumter in South Carolina’s Charleston Bay. During the next 34 hours, 50 Confederate guns and mortars launched more than 4,000 rounds at the poorly supplied fort. On April 13, U.S. Major Robert Anderson surrendered the fort. Two days later, U.S. President Abraham Lincoln issued a proclamation calling for 75,000 volunteer soldiers to quell the Southern “insurrection.”

Vietnam War
The false flag that started the Vietnam War There was no torpedo attack in the Gulf of Tonkin How Lyndon Johnson lied us into a catastrophe On this day in 1964, Congress passed the “Gulf of Tonkin Resolution” which began massive escalation of the US war and occupation of Viet Nam.The false flag that started the Vietnam War |

Conclusion

America has decided to wage a war against Asia. There are aspects of both China, Russia and Iran involved. Right now, it is considered to be “trade”, “Hybrid”, “ideological”, “propaganda”, and …

…it’s intended to go hot.

Whether or not it will be limited to conventional weapons is a silly argument. Of course it will go nuclear.

This article looks at the kinds of false flags that are being set in place for the ignition for the war. And while the planners in K-street and the Washington DC beltway are looking towards a very long generational war, I don’t see that their planning will come to fruition. Instead I picture an unholy terror unleashed upon the USA if any action is attempted. And the result will be a very, very bad and nasty war. And no matter what damage that America wrecks China with, the end result will be the complete and utter devastation of America by the combined forces of Russia and China acting in unison.

To pretend otherwise is foolish.

It’s and entirely uncomfortable subject, but fits exactly with the predictions for the Fiuth Turning generational theory.

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An uncomfortable look at how capable America is in rebuilding after a world war.

There’s a lot of talk in the United States these days. It’s all about how “evil” the Chinese are, and how “evil” the Russians are, and how “evil” the Iranians are. And along with this well publicized narrative is the flood of articles about “how strong” and “how invincible” the American military is. It’s almost like, well it’s exactly like, America is on a war-footing and is readying the population for a long drawn out, multi-generational war, with Asia.

It’s a big mistake.

I guess that the American “leadership” wasn’t paying attention in history class. Perhaps they should ask the ghosts of Napoleon Bonaparte and Hitler how that all worked out.

But one of the unspoken realities is the illusion that Asia won’t fight back. That it is inconceivable. And that any far in far-away Russia, or far-away China, or far-away Iran will stay far away.

Far… far… away.

And that, even if it did somehow manage to “throw a few punches” back at the United States, that the (good ol’) USA will manage to absorb them, quickly recover, and continue living a great and exceptional life as the “leader of the free world”, and that “brilliant city on the hill”. America is “exceptional” don’t you know…

And I for one am going to tell you that this is delirious wishful thinking.

Back in the day

This attitude that “we are strong and invincible” and that “we can tell the world what to do, or else” is thuggish bullying. And it’s more than just irritating, it’s disgusting. But for historians (well, I am an amateur, but you all know what I mean) it’s frightening.

History is full of stores of the proud rulers of nations. They would live inside their huge stone forts. they would have these huge banners fluttering in the azure blue skies, and they would have gaggles of beautiful maidens attending to them. And they would have large armies of “Heavy Cavalry” and “Knights in singing armor” . They would have thousands of these armed knights.

And they would sit inside their castles, on their thrones, and eat their lamb, drink their mead, and cavort with their wenches.  They would make proclamations. They would be delirious and drunk with power, and totally and completely unaware of true and real dangers elsewhere in the world.

I feel a lecture coming on…

Genghis Khan and the “Brilliant Cities on the hill”

Genghis Khan was the Emperor of the Mongol Empire. He must have been one of the most ferocious people ever to live on the planet Earth. Genghis marked his reign with blood, feasts, and love of different women. People like Napoleon, Hitler, or Stalin look like amateurs when we compare them to Genghis Khan.

This fierce Mongol knew how to rule, and he successfully did it for many years in the 13th century. There wasn’t a person back in the day, who would not be scared of Genghis Khan’s power.

But before he came to power, he was not all that well known. And, as such he was dismissed as a “uncouth”, “uncultured” barbarian. Which he pretty much was…

The knights at their tournaments, in their finery, armor and emblems of ancestry, believed they were the foremost warriors in the world, while Mongol warriors thought otherwise. 

Mongol horses were small, but their riders were lightly clad and they moved with greater speed. These were hardy men who grew up on horses and hunting, making them better warriors than those who grew up in agricultural societies and cities. 

Their main weapon was the bow and arrow. And the Mongols of the early 1200s were highly disciplined, superbly coordinated and brilliant in tactics.

The Mongols were illiterate, religiously shamanistic and perhaps no more than 700,000 in number. Their language today is described as Altaic, a language unrelated to Chinese, derived from inhabitants in the Altay mountain range in western Mongolia. 

They were herdsmen on the grassy plains north of the Gobi Desert, south of Siberia's forests. Before the year 1200, the Mongols were fragmented, moving about in small bands headed by a chief, or khan, and living in portable felt dwellings. 

The Mongols endured frequent deprivations and sparse areas for grazing their animals. They frequently fought over turf, and during hard times they occasionally raided, interested in goods rather than bloodshed. They did not collect heads or scalps as trophies.

-Genghis Khan

…but that is besides the point.

The Mongol Empire conquered all Asia, and no enemy could withstand Genghis Khan and his bloodthirsty army. Oh yes, even though Mongols loved to compromise, they were known for their brutal physical power.

But they were much more than that. The Mongols under Genghis Khan were fair, just and orderly. You just don’t get on their bad side.

Genghis Khan created a body of law that he was to work on throughout his life. This included outlawing the tradition of kidnapping women. The kidnapping of women had caused feuds among the Mongols, and, as a teenager he had suffered from the kidnapping of his young wife, Borte, and he had devoted himself to rescuing her.

In addition, Genghis Khan declared all children legitimate, whomever the mother. He made it law that no woman would be sold into marriage. The stealing of animals had caused dissension among the Mongols, and Temujin made it a capital offense. A lost animal was to be returned to its owner, and taking lost property as one's own was to be considered thievery and a capital offense. Temujin regulated hunting – a winter activity – improving the availability of meat for everyone. He introduced record keeping, taking advantage of his move years before to have his native language put into writing. He created official seals. He created a supreme officer of the law who was to collect and preserve all judicial decisions, to oversee the trials of all those charged with wrongdoing and to have the power to issue death sentences. He created order that strengthened his realm and improved his ability to expand its territory.

-Genghis Khan

People believed that one Mongolian man could defeat ten or more warriors of other culture. And that was true. Genghis Khan proved many times how strong his army was, defeating his enemies against all the odds.

Nowadays, the only news we can hear about Mongolia is that Russians are trying out their nuclear weapons in the steppes of this ancient empire. Or that the Chinese are placing farming robots to herd cattle in inner Mongolia.

We forget that modern Chinese, and modern Russians are the direct descendants of the Mongol warriors of Genghis Khan.

What about this “uncouth barbarian”…

Genghis Khan was one of the most deeply feared historical figures in the world for a good reason. Historians estimate that Genghis Khan is responsible for over 40 million deaths, and at that time it was equal to 11 percent of the world’s population. For comparison, we can look at World War II, which has put “only” around three percent of the world’s population, 60-80 million people, to the graveyard. What Genghis Khan did is downright scary when we put it in perspective, right?

Not bad for an “evil” uncouth barbarian.

Genghis Khan was the most feared human of the 13th century, who could destroy dynasties just by moving his little finger. He created the Mongol Empire all by himself and earned his eternal spot in the history books. However, a lot of people had to suffer for Genghis Khan to succeed.

In cities the Mongols were forced to conquer, Genghis Khan divided the civilians by profession. He drafted the few who were literate and those he could use as translators. Those who had been the city's most rich and powerful he wasted no time in killing, remembering that the rulers he had left behind after conquering the Tangut and the Jurchens had betrayed him soon after his army had withdrawn.

It is said that the Genghis Khan's military did not torture, mutilate or maim. But his enemies are reported as having done so. Captured Mongols were dragged through streets and killed for sport and to entertain city residents. Gruesome displays of stretching, emasculation, belly cutting and hacking to pieces were something European rulers were using to discourage potential enemies – as was soon to happen to William Wallace on orders from England's King Edward I. The Mongols merely slaughtered, and preferred doing so from a distance.

The city of Nishapur revolted against Mongol rule. The husband of Genghis Khan's daughter was killed, and, it is said, she asked that everyone in the city be put to death, and, according to the story, they were.

-Genghis Khan

Oh yes, the Mongolians were known for their horrendous torturing techniques. One of the most popular was pouring molten silver down the throat and ears of a victim.

Genghis Khan also liked bending his enemy’s back until the backbone snapped. If that sounds barbaric, skip this next part. So, the Mongols once celebrated victory over Russians in a very bizarre way. They picked all the Russian survivors, dropped them on the ground and put a heavy wooden gate on top of them. Then, Genghis Khan and the entire Mongol army had a huge banquet on that wooden gate. They ate, drank, and watched how Russians were dying one by one from the suffocation, pressure, and wounds.

Genghis Khan had so much power that he could do whatever he wanted. For instance, when Genghis occupied some new area, he would kill or enslave all the men and share all the women amongst his tribe.

Genghis Khan would even make beauty contests of captured women to decide which woman is the most beautiful one. Yeah, he was having his Miss Universe competition before it was cool. So, the queen of those beauty competitions would win the privilege to become one of many Genghis Khan’s women.

The rest of the Mongolian army would share all the other contestants. It shows us once again how cruel and barbaric Mongols were. I suppose that it was a different time and a different place, but the fact remains that when you have lost, your cities destroyed, and sacked, the victor can do whatever they want. And they wanted sex.

Lots and lost of sex.

Genghis Khan was able to destroy entire “impenetrable” cities easily.

When we look at what Genghis Khan achieved with the Mongol Empire, we cannot help but appreciate his mastermind as a warlord. It surely looks like Genghis Khan had three dragons with him just like Khaleesi.

I cannot find any other explanation of Genghis Khan’s success.

I mean, he defeated Jin Dynasty’s one million troops with only 90,000 Mongolians by his side. Yes, Genghis Khan managed to win a war with ten times fewer troops than his opponent’s army.

Jin Dynasty.

On top of that, he was invading China, so he had to overcome all the “little” problems such as the Great Wall of China.

Genghis Khan with his army had destroyed over 500,000 of Chinese troop before getting control of Northern China and Beijing. The rest of the Chinese army had to surrender to the power of Genghis Khan.

Destroying Jin Dynasty is only one of many examples of how great of a warlord Genghis Khan was. Also, he had some brutal and loyal men by his side, so let’s not rule out the dragon theory.

Physical force is not enough to achieve something as great as Genghis Khan did.

Yes, there is no doubt that he is the greatest and most brutal warlord in history, but he was also a very wise man. In 1201, during a battle, Genghis Khan was shot by an enemy archer. Needless to say, he was not happy about it.

So, after the Mongolian army won the battle, Genghis Khan spent some time looking for the man that shot him. He even pretended that it was not him who got shot, but his horse, so the enemy archer would have the courage to confront Genghis.

An unbelievable thing happened when the archer finally stepped out of the crowd and confessed shooting Genghis Khan.

Instead of killing his enemy, Genghis Khan recognized his talent and asked him to join the Mongolian army. The archer became a great general and loyally served Genghis for many years. That is one of the reasons why Mongol Empire was such a success back in the 13th century.

It is not a secret that Genghis Khan loved to have some bedroom time with all the different women. Whenever Genghis would conquer new land (he did it more frequent than people scroll Facebook nowadays), he would also get himself a couple of new wives.

As well as a gaggle of some “playthings”.

Genghis did that because he liked beautiful women, but it was also a very convenient way to demonstrate his power. Spreading his blood line all over Asia ensured peace in the entire Mongol Empire.

So, how many children did Genghis Khan have? It is pretty much impossible to tell the number, but historians estimate that today, around eight percent of men from Asia are his descendants. I cannot even start to process this number, but apparently, Genghis Khan was a great lover. No one in the history is even close to having such a wide family tree. So, next time when you talk about Genghis Khan, remember that it is a great chance that he is your ancestor.

Torture time.

Genghis Khan was a man of reason. He let the people in the Mongol Empire live a happy life as long as they followed his rules.

However, Genghis Khan cruelly punished everyone who tried to break those rules.

In Hungary and Poland the Mongols were outnumbered but tactically superior. They defeated several Hungarian armies. In early April, 1241, at the Battle of Lenica (Liegnitz) in Poland, they defeated an army that is said to have included heavily armored Teutonic knights. Dying in the battle was the most powerful of Polish dukes, Henryk II (Henry II).

-Genghis Khan

For example, when the governor of one of the cities in the Khwarazmian Empire took over Genghis Khan’s trade caravan and killed all the traders, Genghis Khan went berserker.

He sent 100,000 Mongols to the Khwarazmian Empire and killed thousands of people, including the governor.

Genghis Khan poured molten silver into the governor’s eyes and mouth until the poor guy roasted from the inside. That was a clear sign that anyone, stupid enough to harm the Mongol Empire, would have to face devastating consequences.

While Genghis Khan was consolidating his conquests in what had been the Khwarezmian Empire, a force of 40,000 Mongol horsemen pushed through Azerbaijan and Armenia. Without Genghis Khan they defeated Georgia's Christian crusaders, captured a Genoese trade-fortress in the Crimea and spent the winter along the coast of the Black Sea. In 1223, as they were headed back home, they met 80,000 warriors led by Prince Mstislav of Kiev. The Battle of Kalka River (map location) commenced. Staying out of range of the crude weapons of peasant infantry, and with better bows than opposing archers, they devastated the prince's standing army. Facing the prince's cavalry, they faked a retreat and drew the prince's armored cavalry forward, taking advantage of the over-confidence of the mounted aristocrats. Lighter and more mobile, the Mongols strung out and tired the pursuers and then attacked, killed and routed them. 

-Genghis Khan

History shows that spreading fear worked perfectly in Genghis Khan’s favor. He still needed to invade some rebellious places from time to time, but for the most of the time, people in The Mongol Empire behaved really well.

Genghis Khan could be as powerful and respected as he wanted, but he still had to surrender to the laws of nature. Genghis Khan died in 1227, at the age of 65.

And why is all this important?

History tells us that psychopathic personalities in charge of nations that possess science, technology, and modern works tend to be blinded to the realities of the world. They become drunk with power, and forget that there are “bigger fish in the sea” and that you should not discount them because they are different…

…or they look different…

…or that they are “book worms”…

…or are drunk on vodka all the time…

…or whatever bullshit reinforcements that you want to believe. Genghis Khan serves as a stark and frightening reminder that there is always someone bigger, and better, and stronger than you are. And you should mistake their polite actions, their calm words, their soft tone of voice for a sign of weakness.

The result could be lethal.

"Let me control the media and I will turn any nation into a herd of pigs"

- Nazi Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels

Consider the reality

I could type until my fingers fall off, and no one is going to believe the statistics that pretty much show that a FIRE based economy isn’t capable of rebuilding, creating, or structuring anything. I can show you historical examples, you you all would ignore them. I can show you charts and graphs, but they will remain oblivious.

A FIRE economy is any economy based primarily on the finance, insurance, and real estate sectors. Finance, insurance, and real estate are United States Census Bureau classifications. Barry Popik describes some early uses as far back as 1982. Since 2008, the term has been commonly used by Michael Hudson and Eric Janszen. It is New York City's largest industry and a prominent part of the service industry in the United States overall economy and other Western developed countries.

-Wikipedia

I argue that strategically, a nation that makes, creates and builds things is far superior to that that talks about things, writes about things, and tabulates numbers on spreadsheets. And this superiority manifests in numerous ways.

The historical displacement of America’s industry for replacement by lawyers, economists, bankers and real estate tycoons.

But rather than get into all the charts and the graphs, it get’s tiresome don’t you know, instead we are going to greatly simplify things and look at the far simpler model.

So what we are going to so is simplify the equations.

An exercise in simplification

We are going to create an imaginary nation, roughly the the same size and structural organization of the United States. We are going to call it “Freedom United!”.

And…

We are also going to create another nation, this is going to be a unified Asia that includes Russia, China and Iran. We will call it “Asia First!”

And…

Does this map remind you of anything?

How about this…

Genghis Khans empire.

Comparisons

What we are going to do is compare the two collective communities. For each one is comprised of a group of separate states or independent nations, all brought together under a common banner.

And when we do compare them, we see this…

Ah…

And the first thing that should strike the reader is that there is a major “real estate difference” involved.

Asia First! is much larger, geographically, than Freedom United! is.

But it’s more than that…

"Early in life I have noticed that no event is ever correctly reported in a newspaper, but in Spain, for the first time, I saw newspaper reports which did not bear any relation to the facts, not even the relationship which is implied in an ordinary lie. I saw great battles reported where there had been no fighting, and complete silence where hundreds of men had been killed. I saw troops who had fought bravely denounced as cowards and traitors, and others who had never seen a shot fired hailed as the heroes of imaginary victories; and I saw newspapers in London retailing these lies and eager intellectuals building emotional superstructures over events that had never happened. I saw, in fact, history being written not in terms of what happened but of what ought to have happened according to various ‘party lines’."

- George Orwell, Looking back on the Spanish War, Chapter 4

The second thing that you must note it it is not only bigger, but it has more people, more factories, and more resources.

But let’s simplify things and note that while Freedom United! and Asia First! both have factories and R&D centers, the nature of them, and the location of them within the geographical territories are quite different.

Freedom United! has pretty much “offshored” it’s manufacturing capability to other nations and places, and what remains are “think tanks”, “conceptional Research” and “study centers”.  They are staffed by bankers, accountants and highly paid diversity directors. Further, their location tends to be centralized to the major cities within the nation body.

Cities like Yorker City, San Chicago, and New Angles have their “industry” very close to the densely packed urban centers. And while there are certainly scattered factories and manufacturing center peppered throughout the nation, the vast bulk of them at located at the urban city centers.

Something like this…

Meanwhile, Asia First! not only has more factories, but they are scattered throughout the entire nation. Furthermore, they tend to make real physical things. Not spreadsheets, Power Point Presentations, and accounting evaluations. The owners and the executives are all merit driven as it is their culture. All the leadership can, if needed, go onto the factory floor and make the parts and equipment products themselves.

Like Freedom United!, they also tend to cluster, but instead of clustering with the major population centers, they cluster inside manufacturing communities that are widely separated and located in the vast tracks of the countryside.

Here’s a map of Guangdong. It is a collection of many, many, many smaller towns that host many, many, many factories. This area is a designated Tier 1 city in China and it is north of the principal city of Shenzhen. For your shit’s and giggles, MM used to live in one of these cities here in this region. It’s all factories, and hills. Factories and hills. Factories and hills.

 

Dongguang

.

The Human bridge is really a hassle I will tell you what. That’s the icon at the far lower left of the picture. I go over it maybe once ever few months. It’s traffic as far as the eye can see!

Now for our purposes, we will consider ASIA FIRST! to be much like this. Which regions of scattered communities and factories all spread out over wide expansive terrain.

It looks something like this…

Now…

Let’s compare the two nation states

"The media's the most powerful entity on earth. They have the power to make the innocent guilty and to make the guilty innocent, and that's power. Because they control the minds of the masses."

- Malcolm X

When you compare the two nations you notice something very important to our calculus here. No matter how smart, how prosperous, how beautiful or how exceptional one nation is compared to the other… a nation with a bigger population, and more factories, and resource will be able to out-produce and out-survive a lesser nation.

It’s the “Risk” strategy.

In the Risk game, the goal is simple: players aim to conquer their enemies’ territories by building an army, moving their troops in, and engaging in battle. Depending on the roll of the dice, a player will either defeat the enemy or be defeated. This exciting game is filled with betrayal, alliances, and surprise attacks.

We saw that during World War II with the Nazi Germans. While their military weapons industry was top rate, and the quality of their equipment was the best in the world, it was the ill-trained, masses and hordes of soldiers from Russia that was able to overwhelm Germany.

This idea that huge quantities of “average” soldiers, and mediocre equipment can compensate for very specialized, and efficient, and expensive weapons systems is not new. It’s just not well reported as the Freedom United! military-industrial lobby is desirous of keeping this issue quiet and “under wraps”.

Let’s compare the two nations side by side…

All this is very interesting, but let’s get to the point.

A comparison with the events of the last few years leading up to today.

America takes on Asia…

Freedom United! is just getting “clobbered” on the international scene. It is a military empire that has few remaining exports of value. It exports aircraft, and wheat, and some very specialized machines, but that’s about it. It’s primary revenue generating venue is in the banking, finance and real estate venues.

This nation has been fighting numerous wars all over the globe, and it’s leadership are drunk with power, and oblivious to the true realities of the world.

So, where they got this idea is unknown, they get this idea that they can take on and fight with Asia First! And that they would win!

What’s more, they seriously believe that they could draw out the battle and fighting for a long, long time.

Not just years and decades, but generations…

Mike Pompeo in India working on the QUAD to fight against China.

.

Now they know that it would be very difficult to fight on the geographical territory of Asia First! as it would result in a complete nuclear retaliation.

Asia First! combined has an enormous nuclear arsenal. It is far bigger, more technologically advanced, and with a larger military than what Freedom United! has.

Thus, they need to be able to fight Asia First! is such a way that Nuclear MAD doctrine is avoided.

They also know that they need to “bleed out” Asia First! in such a way as to give them time to overtake the nation through attrition.  So they have established other areas by which the fighting can take place.

  • Create a MAJOR “false flag” event to ignite a war-footing.
  • Keep the fighting conventional. Avoid nuclear weapons.
  • Fight by proxies on predetermined proxy nation locations.
  • Bleed Asia First! through dominance on the oceans, and in Space.
  • Isolate Asia First! in all ways and means.
  • Prevent war from hitting the mainland Freedom United!

The battles are designed to occur on proxy locations.

The idea is to have wars and battles taking place in far-away lands, so that no one in Freedom United! is harmed, and a direct nuclear strike with Asia First! can be avoided. These proxy war locations (already decided upon by FREEDOM UNITED!) are shown in gold.

And of course, the idea is that Freedom United! would fight Asia First on these designated battlefields. These areas are known as the QUAD.

It’s a brilliant plan.

Except one thing.

Some of those QUAD areas are considered to be Asian First! territory. And pretending that they are not is a egregious mistake. And Asia First! has said so explicitly. These are “RED LINES” that one dare not cross.

But the leadership of Freedom United! just chucked, and pretended that they didn’t hear the statements.

A Battle Rages

So let’s go through the logical progression of things.

Logical.

Progression.

Of events as we know them.

Freedom United! creates a series of “false flags” to justify a war with Asia First!. There are a number of events stacked up that are ready to go. The question is which one will Freedom First! use to “get the ball rolling”?

And within a short period of time there are global military actions globally.

Initially, it looks like everything is going to plan. One or two QUAD members decide to “sit the conflict out”, but the rest support the effort in varying degrees.

Trade slows to a trickle and even stops.

The people of Freedom United! are all in gleeful patriotism, and conventional fighting is occurring all along the “doorsteps” of Asia First!. As planned! Off in far-away lands!

American media constantly pushes for war because they have no idea what real war is. To them, going to war is like spanking a child: possibly backfiring socially, but no real danger to their own lives. Most of the time, they just send bombers and take cool videos. When guys have to be sent on the ground, their deaths can be used to fuel the national hard-on America has for its military. I call it the "thank you for your service culture.

America has waged war on minor nations for so long that they can't even imagine that fighting another nation might result in aunt Nancy meeting her creator early. To them, Afghanistan, Iraq, China, Russia, it's all the same.

Also, the infantile thinking in terms of good and bad doesn't help.

Posted by: Eeny | Apr 12 2021 18:32 utc | 12

They can sit down in front of their televisions set, and social media feeds and feel so proud and patriotic about how strong and powerful their military is, and finally doing something about all those evil dirty filthy Asia First! people.

But then something happens.

Those “neutral” QUAD nations are not all independent. Some of them are actually geographically part of Asia First! They are not considered to be “protectorates of Freedom United!” instead they are recognized by the UN as actual sovereign territory of Asia First!, and…

…when the military operations in support of the False Flag events start to occur, action starts to unfold very rapidly.

Asia First! decides that enough is enough, and that this bullshit must end. So it unleashes a combined military horror upon Freedom United!.

All Hell breaks loose.

The event was is brief and is over quickly. All in all an equal exchange of nuclear conflagration occurs to both nation states. No one is spared.

But…

The nuclear strike has been planned for decades. It’s not spontaneous.

And one nation decides to end it, and it remains the victor who lays the terms of surrender of the other nation.

Which nation would be the winner, and which would be the loser, do you suppose?

It looks like this…

Global Devastation

We can see what happens.

Not only are the designated battlefields (pre-established by Freedom United!) hit with crippling nuclear salvos, but the “untouchable” cities of Freedom United! are also targeted. In fact, ALL of the major urban ares of Freedom United! are erased from the globe.

All of the major cites of Freedom United are erased from the map. All of the military bases in support of the military empire of Freedom United! are turned into slag and glass. The capital, and all the leadership locations are craters surrounded by radioactive wasteland.

Freedom United! ceases to be a nation.

The world is in big trouble.

It did come at a price.

Asia First! also took some hits and they did not survive unscathed. But we can clearly see that even though there was an equal exchange of hostilities, the nation that suffered the worst was Freedom United! by the simple geography of it’s cities and manufacturing base.

The Aftermath

Now consider the years following this nuclear exchange.

How was the globe able to recover, and which nations recovered the best?

And…

Which nations are best able to recover?

Which nations would be able to recover within a decade?

Which nations would be able to recover within 50 years?

Let’s take a look at that…

Recovery Suggestions

Well, there are far too many variables at play to make any kind of reasonable determine what could happen. All we have are the numbers and the proportions. Asia First! could lose 75% of it’s population and still be better off than Freedom United! And then there is the destruction of factories and cities, and the ability to rebuild. In all aspects, Asia First! would be far better equipped to rebuild, stabilize the situation, and begin all over.

Not so with Freedom United!

Because of this, and the fact that Freedom United! is already balkanized, it seems logical that whatever the condition of Freedom United! would be after a major nuclear exchange, it would fracture into many different singular, independent cities, and independent nations. Some would be healthier than others. Some would be absolutely horrible and horrid places to live, while others might be generally unscathed.

We can also say that there would probably be some serious internal domestic conflict as a nation of “independence” (and high levels of gun ownership and decades of “race bating”) and government actions that pit one group against another…

… that there would be a relatively long period of adjustment to the new normal.

There might be efforts to maintain the original constitution, while there might be efforts to maintain the independence of the individual states. There might be efforts to carve out new states and new territories, as well as neighboring nations deciding to annex some of the lands that are now “up for grabs”.

No matter, how contentious, how difficult, how problematic, and how confused, one thing is certain, the Federal Government will no longer exist, and it would take a herculean effort to keep the Freedom United! national unity intact after a global nuclear exchange.

Conclusion

Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads. Nuclear war has become a multi-billion dollar undertaking, which fills the pockets of US defense contractors. What is at stake is the outright “privatization of nuclear war”.  

Massive amounts of money have been allocated by the Joe Biden Administration to feed the weapons industry including the Pentagons’ 1.3 trillion dollar nuclear weapons program  first launched under Obama, is ongoing under the Biden administration.

Michel Chossudovsky, April 12, 2021

This post looks at the world like the simplified game of “Risk”. The nation with the bigger population and armies will be able to offset what ever technical advantage you might possess. This is not always true, of course. (Consider the Incas when they met the Spanish in search of gold.) But it is often true enough to say that perhaps 80% of modern conflict follows this rule.

We can wish that advantage can be mitigated by brilliant generals (Carl von Clausewitz, and Rommel), or exciting cutting edge technology (radar, sonar, stealth, cruse missile, hyper-glide technology, drones, nuclear weapons), and elite and specialized training (Seals, Green Berets) but for the most part these advantages are on the Tactical level, not on the Strategic level.

Avalon Hill’s game “Squad Leader” simulates tactical level military warfare on the Eastern Front between Germany and Russia during World War II.

But we have to take into account something else. This is something that is rarely if ever addressed…

… incompetence at the leadership level.

The public faces change, but the stupidity remains because, like Rome, you can change the leadership… but the system is faulted and humans will abuse it.

When Germany ran over France in 1941 the French generals were ill prepared to deal with the Germans. When World War II broke out, Stalin was so incompetent, that he locked himself in the room and got drunk waiting for people to haul him away and arrest him.

When Genghis Khan attacked Europe, and the Silk Road, many nations and city state had an unrealistic understanding of the threat that was facing them, and they had an artificially inflated idea of what they were capable of.

Like the 20,000 armored knights that rode into battle to take on 4 million angry Huns... none survived.

In this overly simplified scenario we discount advantages on the tactical level.

Instead we compare geography and leadership (only). In this set of goggles it is quite obvious that Asia First! has a decided advantage over Freedom United!. Yet, as much fun as this very frightening scenario plays out, we do not know what to expect, and our guesses can be wildly inaccurate.

But, and yet, given the little what we know, and what we have learned from history, there is a case that the scenario presented here has a 60% likelihood of occurring. The Freedom Forever! nation will not easily recover at any pre-confligation level, and it is ridiculous to assume that it would. No matter what “secret weapon” the neocons in control of the nation might think.

We need only review the catastrophic mistakes of the Hungarians when they encountered the Huns of Genghis Khan to underline this point.

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What is coming to America. No punches pulled and telling you all straight.

This post is in response to an Influencer who asked…

What troubles me the most is what is coming to my country and you covered it so well but if there is anything that you can add i am sure the majority of readers are concerned with this and would greatly appreciate your input.  

What is so odd is everyone  I talk with  tells me that they can feel something coming but they don't know what it is.  

i love my country dearly but to see what has happened to it and to so many lazy, entitled and plain stupid Americans i know that this has to happen.   I do so very much appreciate MM.

Yes. Something is coming. Everyone can feel it. But no one knows what it is.

All throughout history there have been critical turning points when  events have greatly accelerated, and it appears that we have reached one  of those turning points.

 In fact, this may be turn out to be the biggest turning point of them all.
 Millions upon millions of Americans can sense that big trouble is  ahead.  For many, it is like a “gut feeling” that they just can’t shake.

 Just a few days ago, my wife met a woman from the west coast that  just moved here.  This woman and her husband were desperate to leave  California, and they felt very strongly that they should move somewhere  safe.

 What makes her story remarkable is the fact that my wife and I have  heard similar stories from others countless times over the past 12  months.

 Our nation is being shaken in thousands of different ways, and so  many of us can feel that things are building up to some sort of a grand  crescendo.

-Why Are So Many Americans Stockpiling Guns, Silver And Food Right Now?

Part of the problem, maybe a big part, is that the American “free” media doesn’t report anything. And Americans are manipulated and kept in the dark about so many things that the rest of the world knows about. Since Americans are kept ignorant for manipulation purposes, they can “feel” things, but have no “knowledge” to channel their feelings into understandings.

Feelings + Intel = Knowledge

I’ve tried to lay out information (Intel) so that you all can be ready and prepared. But even with that people as asking for more concrete and hard predictions.

Timing

Historical records clearly point out the the United States will go through a severe and harsh change in society. This has been building up for some time. The worst and most catastrophic elements of that change has already been set in motion. Anything that will occur will occur during the ten-year span from 2020 though 2030.

Serious upheaval in America will occur from 2020 though to 2030. This is a ten year period of time. As this post was written in 2021, there are nine years remaining during this period.

Summary

I’m going to lay out some points and some information. I’ve covered the background elsewhere in great detail. However, here we are just going to throw it all out for purposes of review.

Generational Turnings are a historically accurate methodology for predictive behaviors.

America; the United States, will go through the following in the next ten years;

  • Domestic unrest resulting in death(s).
  • A complete change in the Federal Government.
  • The value of the USD will collapse.
  • A very serious “Hot War” on American soil.
  • Cultural, and societal collapse.

Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a cognitive bias which leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings. Consequently, individuals underestimate the likelihood of a disaster, when it might affect them, and its potential adverse effects. The normalcy bias causes many people to not adequately prepare for natural disasters, pandemics, and calamities caused by human error. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster.

-Wikipedia

Let’s go one by one on these points.

[1] Domestic unrest resulting in death(s).

Historically, Fourth Turnings are always associated with domestic unrest. Not only that but people die. Yes. There is an entire sub-culture of Americans that believe that domestic unrest will occur. All you need to do is google SHTF and “prepper”. And you know that many Americans expect this. Gun stores are empty of guns and ammo.

Everyone is expecting societal unrest. And they plan on defending themselves and their family. In fact, for the last three months the top MM posts are those devoted to the SHTF Index.

And sure… nothing is guaranteed. This fear might just be a passing fad. Or the absolute result of American media going “off the rails”. Or some kind of mass psychosis due to being locked inside all 2020. It could be anything.

I am of the opinion …

  • Most Americans are unhappy.
  • Most Americans are locked inside of a class structure with little upward movement.
  • There are terrible and systematic problems regarding American society.
  • Government “solutions” are insufficient, meager and viewed as an insult.
  • There are groups who desire to capitalize on domestic discord to promote their own agendas.
  • There are elements inside of the Federal Government that have the power and plans to come down aggressively to any disruption of society.

None of the above should come as any surprise to most Americans. And thus I conclude…

There is a higher than average chance that there will be domestic revolt / upset. This is not a continuation of BLM, Antifa “riots”, or a Trump Supporter “frat party” style takeover of Congress. This will be something far more serious, sinister and deadly. It will not be reported, or if it is, it will be reported in such a way as to minimize what is actually going on.

Historically, these kinds of events are preceded by the government trying to take preemptive actions. That could be [1] “false flag” events, [2] a banning of weapons or one or more Rights / freedoms, and [3] a call to fight some kind of “enemy” or “threat”.

If any of the above occurs to any serious degree, you can well expect domestic discord to follow promptly.

Historically, all Democrat Presidents have had a major "Gun-related mass-killing event" within the first nine months of their Presidency. That includes Trump who was supposed to lose to Hillary Clinton.

[2] A complete change in the Federal Government.

Historically, Fourth Turnings are always associated with a serious and large change in the Government. The current American government is an enormous behemoth, it is sluggish, inefficient, lazy, and is out of control. To believe that it is working fine or that it could be improved is to ignore the facts. Both sides of the political divide demand a restructuring.

  • Democrats are looking towards a Socialist and Marxist solution.
  • Republicans are looking for a return to the 1776 Republic.

The compass is all over the place on this. One thing is for certain, the wealthy oligarchy loves the status quo and do not want to change anything. To make the changes that are necessary, a real revolution must occur.

The Federal Government will change substantially. I can offer no insight into what it will change into. Needless to say, the nation is completely divided and polarized and no matter who obtains the reins of power, large segments of the population will be unhappy. The only way that I can see any kind of satisfaction is by an overwhelmingly exhausted citizenry that is ready to accept change, no matter how radical it is.

Nor can I offer insight as to how this will happen. What I do know is that unless it happens, there will be no ‘Crisis Event”.

[3] The value of the USD will collapse.

Historically, Fourth Turnings are always associated with economic changes. I see an exponential increase in the value of the stock market with zero connection to the lives of actual American citizenry. I also see an exponential increase in the national debt. It doesn’t take a genius to see that both of these things are not sustainable.

People have been predicting the eventual collapse of the American economy for decades. Yet it still hums along. The only way that this will change is if the international medium of exchange changes. And there is evidence that this is exactly what is going on. I do not see this as a sudden, precipitous event, but rather a trend that continues over a long swath of time before the USD stabilizes.

The USD will significantly change in value negatively. This will occur over a period of time. The end result will be generalized discomfort for Americans on many levels.

[4] A very serious “Hot War” on American soil.

Historically, Fourth Turnings are always associated with “hot wars”; shooting wars that occurring using the most advanced technology available, and they occur on American soil.

Even if the nation stays together, its geography could be fundamentally changed, its party structure altered, its Constitution and Bill of Rights amended beyond recognition. 

History offers even more sobering warnings: Armed confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war—class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or superpower war. 

If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war, fought until the losing side has been rendered nil—its will broken, territory taken, and leaders captured. And if there is total war, it is likely that the most destructive weapons available will be deployed.

There is no avoiding this. Anyone who thinks that China will allow another Yemen, Afghanistan or Syria to occur in the South China Sea is delusional. The same goes for Russia. These nations do not play, are peer-capable, or superior in training and weaponry, and work together. The idea that America can take on China or Russia independently is a fantasy. Any war with either will result in a war with both simultaneously.

So forget the illusions that America has the biggest, the baddest, and the best military. It might get by trying twenty years to fight goat-herders with AK-47’s, but is no match for merit-based, well-trained, superior-armed, and a pissed-off Asia.

From 2017 through 2020, the United States “carpet bombed” China with bio-weapons. This effort affected Russia, and Iran. And of course, China, Iran and Russia knows who was involved, why and how.

But China, Russia and Iran didn’t take any obvious retaliatory action.

That should make every single Americans hair stand on end.

We should expect a major hot war. This war will be instigated though American actions and international activities. Neither China, nor Russia are stupid. They will strike first. They will use full-spectrum nuclear weapons, and America will resemble one of the nations that it “bombed the shit out of” for “democracy”.

[5] Cultural, and societal collapse.

Historically, Fourth Turnings are always associated with severe changes to society and the individuals who live inside America. In the past, Americans have been resilient enough, independent enough, and hardy enough to rebuild any collapsed society. But today, I am not so sure.

With or without war, American society will be transformed into something different. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers' visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin.

Most Americans are terribly overweight, and while many are functional with technology, during a period of societal collapse most technology will not operate in an optimal manner during a full scale Crisis Event. During 2020 large segments of the American population failed to work together and wear masks during the pandemic. I just cannot imagine that Americans would rebuild radioactive cities, start planting vegetables in their suburban lawns, and working together for free.

Americans have been a historically resilient people, but whether or not they will be able to come together during the Crisis Event is unlikely. It is not a politically attractive position, but it is a realistic expectation.

Let’s combine everything together.

Well, there is nothing that I have said here that I have not covered elsewhere. But let’s see if we can compile some knowns to help us make a substantive predictive engine for our use.

Keep in mind that this is just a predictive map. It may or may not happen.

Uh Oh!

My argument is that the COVID-19 fiasco in the United States is not part of this collapse crisis vector. It is only a contributor.

Whether the future occurs as predicted will depend on the actions or inaction’s of the American Presidency. Any of the following events will probably unleash a particular singular element of the Crisis event.

  • Passage of restrictive laws that infringe on cherished Rights.
  • A military action that involves either China, Russia or Iran.
  • No attempts at financial, banking or economic restructuring.
  • A “false flag” event of any purpose.

Knowing that these are exactly the same kind of modus operandi that Washington has used over the last fifty years, you can well expect that some or all of them will precipitate the Crisis event.

Year by Year expectations

The graphic above is pretty complex. Let’s look at it like you would a newspaper horoscope.

2021

  • The pandemic continues all year.
  • Posturing of various political and special interests organized by various oligarchies.
  • Continued (minor) unrest on many levels.
  • A somewhat stabilization of the overall economic consideration.
  • A “false flag” event.

2022

  • The pandemic continues.
  • Domestic unrest starts to manifest. Maybe shootings or some kind of organized behavior.
  • Some unpopular laws or regulations are implemented.
  • The USA starts to get involved in some strong covert (not visible) international military actions.

2023 Crisis

  • People are adapting to the Pandemic and it seems to be subsiding.
  • Domestic unrest continues and gets more violent.
  • The economy and the USD starts to falter. Economic Balloons start to “pop”.
  • The Federal Government looks towards a hot war with a major power as a desirable technique of distraction and unification.
  • The USA starts to engage in International Military Actions of some visible type.
  • Risk of a HOT WAR is very high. It may or may not hit American soil.

2024 Insanity

  • Still a pandemic, but is under control.
  • Domestic unrest breaks out in open conflict in numerous areas.
  • The Federal Government starts to decentralize, or change in some significant manner.
  • The economy starts a long sequence of contractions and mini-collapses.
  • The USD starts to have it’s value erode significantly.
  • HOT WAR! Americans on American soil are affected. It’s not a “police action” in a far away land or sea.
  • The health system, inefficient and expensive collapses completely.
  • Society is disrupted. Communication, transport, food, and electricity are all unreliable and disrupted.
  • The Election is a landslide for one political party who promises massive change.

2025 “Everything but the kitchen sink”

  • 2025 will be like 2024, only crazier, and more intense.
  • Discord and disruptions are commonplace and are no longer isolated to certain geographic regions. Everyone “feels the pinch”.
  • May people start to die of illnesses that could have been prevented or cured.
  • New illnesses and viruses start to appear all over America. These are far worse than the COVID-19. Americans treat them like the “seasonal flu”.
  • Everyone is in “survival mode”.
  • Americans start to turn to non-American news for information.

2026 “The Kitchen Sink gets included”

  • Anything that was good about 2025, is now gone.
  • Normal lifestyles are permanently disrupted.
  • Urban areas are hotbeds of contentious activity.
  • Woods and forests are flooded with urban refugees.
  • Hot war ends.

2027

  • Things are still crazy, but groups of people are working together to sort out the craziness.
  • A new type of government emerges.
  • Domestic discord and fighting continues, but it’s mostly “turf wars”.
  • The USD has substantially collapsed.
  • US economy is in ruins.
  • The government begins to discuss reconstruction efforts and mobilization of work forces for a common good.

2028

  • A new normal has arrived in America.
  • There is a new government, new people, new ideas, and new systems.
  • The USA is shattered and a real mess, but people are starting to band together in small groups to make things right in their little area of control.
  • People can see the “light at the end of the tunnel”.

2029

  • Reconstruction efforts begin.
  • Rehabilitation efforts begin.
  • New policies and lifestyles start to manifest.
  • A brighter future lies ahead for everyone.

The sky is falling!

We were told that 2021 would be the year when everything starts to get  back to normal.  But that hasn’t exactly been the case, has it?  It has  been just over a month, and there is still chaos everywhere.  We have  seen a wild riot at the U.S. Capitol, civil unrest has been erupting in major cities from coast to coast, millions of people have filed for unemployment benefits, a president was impeached, and a crazy ride on Wall Street  made “GameStop” a national phenomenon.  That would normally be enough  for an entire year, but we are still in the first week of February. 

Economic Collapse Blog (Read More...)

Oh, sure. Doomsday predictions are a “dime a dozen”. From Global Cooling, to Global Warming, to Chinese Killer Zombie Hornets, to 5G radiation. From California sliding into the Pacific, to Y2K collapsing the entire basis of civilization. To …

…well you get the picture.

Those that run the government and their oligarchy owners know all of this. The trick is, and the key is, to identify just how the President and Congress will be able to prevent any of this from occurring. I argue that it’s like the little boy with his finger in a dike. He might not be able to stop the great enormous explosion of change.

But if he is able to, if he is able to redirect it, than much of all this can be avoided, and the status quo can continue for another 150 years.

…

Wouldn’t that be wonderful?

Remember the final scene in the movie “Back to the Future III”, when the Professor Emmet Brown tells Marty and his girlfriend that the future is not carved in stone. You have the ability and the tools to change it.

Back to the future III scene.
The future is not carved in stone. You have the ability to change it.

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Was 2020 the Crisis of the Fourth Turning as predicted by Strauss and Howe?

It is easy to get distracted by the daily gyrations, ceaseless media propaganda, political theater, false narratives, and delusional beliefs of both the left and right, as this military empire built on debt and deceit spirals towards its fiery cataclysmic climax. 

Opposing forces have gathered themselves into position focusing on defeating their domestic enemies, with the left seeming to have strategic advantage but led by hubristic dullards, while numerous foreign adversaries circle like hungry vultures ready to pounce on the dying beast of an empire.

-The Burning Platform

The Fourth Turning is when (the American) society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. This idea of cycles and change where society rises and falls upon generational maturity was developed by two authors; Strauss and Howe. They postulated that there are four turnings in society. Together, the four turnings comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth.

This is a prediction of the future based upon the generational and social cycles of the past history. It is fundamentally an American observation, though the system and predictions can be applied to other cultures and other societies.

According to the predictions…

Even if the nation stays together, its geography could be fundamentally changed, its party structure altered, its Constitution and Bill of Rights amended beyond recognition. History offers even more sobering warnings: Armed confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war—class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or superpower war. If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war, fought until the losing side has been rendered nil—its will broken, territory taken, and leaders captured. And if there is total war, it is likely that the most destructive weapons available will be deployed.

After the Crisis event…

With or without war, American society will be transformed into something different. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers' visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin.

This post asks if the predictions made by the authors [1] actually manifested as predicted, or are [2] yet still to manifest.

Prediction

.

Taking note of “The Fourth Turning” and the Strauss and Howe generational theory of predictive behavior in America, we note that they predicted a Crisis Catalyst in 2005 and a Climax in 2020.

If the Crisis catalyst comes on schedule, around the year 2005, then the  climax will be due around 2020, the resolution around 2026. 

What will  America be like as it exits the Fourth Turning? History offers no  guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong—the  possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues,  from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume  that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible  tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary  hardship, but debasement and total ruin. 

Since Vietnam, many Americans  suppose they know what it means to lose a war. 

Losing in the next Fourth  Turning, however, could mean something incomparably worse. It could  mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence—and perhaps even  our nation—might never recover. As many Americans know from their own  ancestral backgrounds, history provides numerous examples of  societies that have been wiped off the map, ground into submission, or  beaten so badly they revert to barbarism.

Indeed, the dates are close but seem to be off by a few years.

In our case, it appears that the “Crisis catalyst” did not occur in 2005 as predicted. It occurred in 2008 with the Wall Street “too big to fail” debacle.

That is three years later.

Adjusting the dates

“It seems I always underestimate the ability of sociopathic central  bankers and their willingness to destroy the lives of hundreds of  millions to benefit their oligarch masters. I always underestimate the  rampant corruption that permeates Washington DC and the executive suites  in mega-corporations across the land. And I always overestimate the  intelligence, civic mindedness, and ability to understand math of the  ignorant masses that pass for citizens in this country. It seems that  issuing trillions of new debt to pay off trillions of bad debt,  government sanctioned accounting fraud, mainstream media propaganda,  government data manipulation and a populace blinded by mass delusion can  stave off the inevitable consequences of an unsustainable economic  system.”

-The Burning Platform

Adjusting the Strauss and Howe dates to account for the delay in the catalyst, messes things up a bit. They predicted…

There is a nice graphic that I composed for your purposes of planning out the next few years. I hope that it is helpful. Adding three years, gives us…

  • “Crisis catalyst” in 2008.
  • Climax in 2023.
  • Resolution in 2029.

.

Of course, you could argue the 2020 was the “climax” simply because it was one Hell of a shitty year. But you all know, it was a shitty year for everyone on the globe. Not just Americans. I argue that it was just foreplay for bigger stuff to come.

Am I right or am I wrong?

I'd say that America is inching closer to 476 - 1000 era (the Dark Ages). Free thought and speech is dying. Common sense is gasping its last breath. Freedom will be a pleasant memory if we remain on our current path. A handful of evil despots are grasping for world domination and they aim to take their wrath out on all us peasants and serfs.

-Action Jackson

The way I see things is in a very simplistic manner.

I view the entire event cycle as if one would clear out the dead-wood and brush that accumulates in a field gone wild. There, the weeds and undergrowth are permitted to grow and clutter up and starve the field in such a ways that no productive crops can grow. Instead of having a field full of tomato plants, you end up with a plot full of weeds, long woody undergrowth, and difficult to remove tenacious shrubbery and young trees.

Overgrown field.
Overgrown field.

Obviously you need to tend to the field to prevent this from ever getting so bad, but as the farmer gets old, and his children move to other pursuits in the cities, he just cannot tend to the weeds and growth. They start to overtake the farm. Pretty soon eventually all that remains are but one or two well tended productive fields and the rest are permitted to go fallow.

The thing is about fallow fields is that the farmer can light a periodic fire and burn away all the problematic undergrowth. But if the farmer fails to do this, the undergrowth just piles up and accumulates.

Eventually it reaches a point of spontaneous combustion. Whether the spark that ignite it is a heat wave, lightening, or an errant cigarette butt, eventually the field will catch fire and burn up.

Brush fire.
Brush fire.

The amount of damage that occurs is directly proportional to the amount of debris that is present. Thus if the field has been permitted to grow fallow for a decade or more, it will go up in a braze of fire that will burn uncontrollably, perhaps even extending well past the borders of the farmer’s field.

Thus I contribute this thought…

The United States is a field that has been permitted to go fallow. It has been untended for a long, long time. Other farmers have predicted that any day now that it would start to burn up. But…

… those dates seemed to come and go.

Now the debris is piled up really high. And it is bone dry. No rain for a couple of years. There seems to be things that are smoldering. You see some smoke here and some smoke there. But no real fire has yet to ignite.

Smoldering brush.
Smoldering brush.

Thus we enter 2021…

Nothing caught fire yet.

I believe there are smoldering embers just waiting to be stirred into a conflagration which will engulf the entire world in a fiery purging of the existing social order, which has exhausted itself and needs to be cleansed. Jefferson understood the nature of Fourth Turnings two hundred years before Strauss & Howe put it to paper.

-The Burning Platform

Sure 2020 was a shit year, and the United States handled it terribly. The smoke is wafting up from the brush piles in the fields. But nothing has yet ignited. It hasn’t.

  • Wall Street is still cheating. And they getting away with blatant crimes and raking in billions of dollars. Sure there was the Game Stop and Robinhood scandals. But nothing has changed.
  • Race relations are at the lowest point. And laws, protests, and social re-engineering are not achieving anything other than pissing people off from both sides of the isle.
  • The Coronavirus showed how incompetent the United States government actually is. And yet aside from a few shuttered businesses, and having to wear masks, everything else seems to be a continuation of the status quo. The only difference is that the poor are poorer, the rich are richer, and the middle class are turning into the lower-middle class.
  • Donald Trump had an opportunity to make a difference. But in hindsight he talked a big game but pretty much wrecked not only the economy, but the global standing of the United States in the eyes of the world. He left office in disgrace. The GOP is in shambles, leaving the DNC as the only party of worth standing. Radical elements stand in the wings waiting to take over.
  • The Washington DC riots were a joke. This was not a revolution. It was a party by drunk frat boys. Yet there is evidence that it will result in laws that are going to turn up the Police State from idle to aggressive.
  • Armed rebellion is all talk with no substance. Sure gun stores are out of stock of everything from guns to bullets to flack vests. But aside from one or two well reported incidents, no “hot” fighting has occurred.

All this tells me that the “Crisis” has yet to occur.

Having studied the Civil War exensively when I was a history major years ago, I would say there are many very clear parallels with the 1850's right now. The level of division and hate is comparable. 

What many seem to forget is the war didn't just start out of the blue nor did most people in the 1850's believe war was going to happen. War became entirely unavoidable in 1859 with John Brown's raid on Harper's Ferry. That was a tipping point. 

The southerners began arming themselves to the teeth and preparing for war. 

That raid was itself more or less inevitable after the Dred Scott decision by the Supreme Court in 1857, which so angered abolitionists that they became far more aggressive. 

In 1860 of course the South realized they had no ability to sway the outcome of the election and they could not block anything the north wanted.

 To compare this to current events I would say the SCOTUS refusal to address the second amendment violations ongoing, particularly with multiple cases denied cert this summer, can be compared with Dred Scott in terms of effects. 

The various one person-one vote rulings in the 60's which held that states could not model their legislatures after the federal Congress (i.e., towns or counties equally represented in one house, representation by population in another) handed total power to the big cities, stripping rural areas of any power to prevent trampling of their rights. 

So we have the legal/political situation that existed in the 1850's/60's with a large swath of the population, a minority in terms of numbers but still substantial, essentially having no real voice in the government. 

We also have the hate and division over various issues. Gun control, notably. A Biden presidency implementing his gun control plans could trigger a modern-day John Brown moment.

 But it's important to also remember that as civil wars go, ours in the 1860's was quite unusual. We had a relatively clean dividing line. State governments versus a federal government. And leaders who were honorable enough people they more or less accepted defeat in the case of the south, and didn't mass incarcerate the defeated enemy afterwards as criminals in the case of the north. 

Most civil wars particularly in more recent times are not this clean. 

They tend to be messy with less clear geographical boundaries to delineate the opposing sides. Armed groups rise and fall, violence tends to be random and sporadic, and you don't necessarily have two opposing government-controlled armies more or less following the rules of conventional warfare. 

If we have another civil war this is how I would expect it to go. Neighbor versus neighbor, city versus country, far left vs far right. Very violent, bloody, disorganized, highly desperate as one side will criminalize the other for participating, and hard to stop once it starts. And of course foreign governments would be involved if indirectly.

 I would say toss a coin for the answer on if it happens. I think the risk is high. The only way to avoid it is for the politicians to back off of the divisive issues to attempt to bring back some national unity. But neither side is showing any such signs of doing so. The SCOTUS could single handedly prevent the gun control plans of the democrats with some well written rulings on pending cases but I doubt it will.

-Vermont Mountain Man

2020 was NOT the Crisis.

I could be wrong

The historical target dates are approximate. Which is something at I believe. And that there are elements that will cause variances on the target dates.

In my mind the Crisis catalyst was targeted for 2005 +/- 3 years. And we have pretty much identified 2008 as this Fourth turnings Crisis Catalyst. It is three years later. Which means that if the time from the catalyst remains stable, then the Climax has yet to occur.

With this knowledge, we can say that the Climax is targeted for 2023.

Or, any day now with the range of 2023 +/- 3 years. Means 2020 though 2026.

Any. Day. Now.

What does Mr. Howe say?

Below is a brief essay originally published on 3/11/19 by Neil Howe discussing the typical progression of each “Turning”. It remains more relevant than ever amidst our current zeitgeist. It was written nearly a year before 2020 showed it’s ugly, ugly face.

NH: We live in a tumultuous time in American history.

 The 2008 financial crisis and all its hardships, was the catalyst  that tipped us into this age of uncertainty. It marked the start of a  generation-long era of secular upheaval that will continue to run its  course over the next decade or so. This is the generational theory I  laid out in “The Fourth Turning,” a book I co-authored with William Strauss in 1997.

 The Fourth Turning explains the rise of a figure like  President Trump. In Trump’s Inauguration Day speech, he painted a bleak  picture of “American carnage,” of “rusted-out factories scattered like  tombstones across the landscape of our nation” with “mothers and  children trapped in poverty in our inner cities.”

 Looking abroad, it’s unclear whether America will turn inward and fall prey to nativism or maintain it’s nearly seventy year role as  leader of the Free World. Other countries are becoming similarly insular. Britain voted to exit the European Union and we’ve heard  anti-E.U. rumblings echoed throughout Europe from France to the  Netherlands.

 Other nations and peoples around the world are looking to either fill  the vacuum in global leadership or exploit it to advance their own ambitions. We’ve seen the thunderous rise of Chinese economic clout, the calculating geopolitical maneuvering of a resurgent Russia, and the barbarous chaos wrought by the so-called Islamic State.

 In many ways, this era of uncertainty follows the natural order of  things. Like Nature’s four seasons, the cycles of history follow a natural rhythm or pattern. Over the past five centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era – a new turning – every two decades or so.

 At the start of each turning, people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future. Turnings come in cycles of four. Each cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly eighty to one hundred years, or a unit of time the ancients called the saeculum.

 The First Turning is called a High.
 This is an era when institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, even if those outside the majoritarian center feel stifled by the  conformity.

 America’s most recent First Turning was the post-World War II  American High, beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of John Kennedy in 1963, a key lifecycle marker for today’s older Americans.

 The Second Turningis an Awakening.
 This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal  and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of personal authenticity. Young activists and spiritualists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural poverty.

 America’s most recent Awakening was the “Consciousness Revolution,”  which spanned from the campus and inner-city revolts of the mid 1960s to  the tax revolts of the early ‘80s.

 The Third Turning is an Unravelling.
 The mood of this era is in many ways the opposite of a High. Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and  flourishing. Highs follow Crises, which teach the lesson that society  must coalesce and build. Unravelings follow Awakenings, which teach the  lesson that society must atomize and enjoy.

 America’s most recent Unraveling was the Long Boom and Culture Wars,  beginning in the early 1980s and probably ending in 2008. The era opened with triumphant “Morning in America” individualism and drifted toward a pervasive distrust of institutions and leaders, an edgy popular culture, and the splitting of national consensus into competing “values” camps.

 And finally we enter the Fourth Turning, which is a Crisis.

 This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression  finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group.

 In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new  “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the  national identity. Currently, this period began in 2008, with the Global  Financial Crisis and the deepening of the War on Terror, and will extend to around 2030. 

If the past is any prelude to what is to come, as  we contend, consider the prior Fourth Turning which was kicked off by  the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II.

 Just as a Second Turning reshapes our inner world (of values, culture  and religion), a Fourth Turning reshapes our outer world (of politics,  economy and empire).

 To be clear, the road ahead for America will be rough. But I take  comfort in the idea that history cycles back and that the past offers us  a guide to what we can expect in the future. Like Nature’s four  seasons, the cycles of history follow a natural rhythm or pattern.

 Make no mistake. Winter is coming. How mild or harsh it will be is anyone’s guess but the basic progression is as natural as counting down the days, weeks and months until Spring. 

Exerpts from the book The Fourth Turning

In 1860-1861 southern states took the Lincoln victory as a de-facto proof that the North would increasingly seek to impose its will upon the south (they were right, but losing the war actually made it happen faster and more completely). 

What people generally forget is that all states had large militias that were beholden ONLY to the states, and people had much more belief and legal adherence to the individual states, than now. 

Terrorist actions do not start a war, because you cannot really go to war conventionally against terrorism. What happened in the 1860's is that state governments formed a new nation in rebellion. 

Personally I don't think the Left or the Right, as a whole, have the balls to do this today. But I guess we'll see. Eventually the threats become real enough that it's hard to ignore them and just hope everything goes back to normal.

-Aerindel, SoJ_51 and Observer

This is straight from the book …

“Something happened to America at that time,” recalled U.S. Senator Daniel Inouye on V-J Day in 1995, the last of the 50-year commemoratives of World War II.  “I’m not wise enough to know what it was.  But it was the strange, strange power that our founding fathers experienced in those early, uncertain days.  Let’s call it the spirit of America, a spirit that united and galvanized our people.”  Inouye went on to reflect wistfully on an era when the nation considered no obstacle too big, no challenge too great, no goal too distant, no sacrifice too deep.  A half-century later, that old spirit had long since dissipated, and nobody under age 70 remembered what it felt like.  When Joe Dawson reenacted his D-Day parachute drop over Normandy, he said he did it “to show our country that there was a time when our nation moved forward as one unit.”

The Eternal Return

On the earthen floors of their rounded hogans, Navajo artists sift colored sand to depict the four seasons of life and time.  Their ancestors have been doing this for centuries.  They draw these sand circles in a counter-clockwise progression, one quadrant at a time, with decorative icons for the challenges of each age and season.  When they near the end of the fourth season, they stop the circle, leaving a small gap just to the right of its top.  This signifies the moment of death and rebirth, what the Hellenics called ekpyrosis.  By Navajo custom, this moment can be provided (and the circle closed) only by God, never by mortal man.  All the artist can do is rub out the painting, in reverse seasonal order, after which a new circle can be begun.  Thus, in the Navajo tradition, does seasonal time stage its eternal return.

Like most traditional peoples, the Navaho accept not just the circularity of life, but also its perpetuity.  Each generation knows its ancestors have drawn similar circles in the sand—and each expects its heirs to keep drawing them.  The Navaho ritually reenact the past while anticipating the future.  Thus do they transcend time.

Modern societies too often reject circles for straight lines between starts and finishes.  Believers in linear progress, we feel the need to keep moving forward.  The more we endeavor to defeat nature, the more profoundly we land at the mercy of its deeper rhythms.  Unlike the Navajo, we cannot withstand the temptation to try closing the circle ourselves and in the manner of our own liking.  Yet we cannot avoid history’s last quadrant.  We cannot avoid the Fourth Turning, nor its ekpyrosis.  Whether we welcome him or not, the Gray Champion will command our duty and sacrifice at a moment of Crisis.  Whether we prepare wisely or not, we will complete the Millennial Saeculum.  The epoch that began with V.J.-Day will reach a natural climax—and come to an end.

An end of what?

The next Fourth Turning could mark the end of man.  It could be an omnicidal armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing.  If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly.  But this end, while possible, is not likely.  Human life is not so easily extinguishable.  One conceit of linear thinking is the confidence that we possess such godlike power that—at the mere push of a button—we can obliterate nature, destroy our own seed, and make ourselves the final generations of our species.  Civilized (post-Neolithic) man has endured some 500 generations, prehistoric (fire-using) man perhaps 5,000 generations, Homo Erectus ten times that.  For the next Fourth Turning to put an end to all this would require an extremely unlikely blend of social disaster, human malevolence, technological perfection, and bad luck.  Only the worst pessimist can imagine that.

The Fourth Turning could mark the end of modernity.  The Western saecular rhythm—which began in the mid-fifteenth century with the Renaissance—could come to an abrupt terminus.  The seventh modern saeculum would be the last.  This too could come from total war, terrible but not final.  There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society.  The “Western Civilization” of Toynbee and the “Faustian Culture” of Spengler would come to the inexorable close their prophesiers foresaw.  A new dark ages would settle in, until some new civilization could be cobbled together from the ruins.  The cycle of generations would also end, replaced by an ancient cycle of tradition (and fixed social roles for each phase of life) that would not allow progress.  As with an omnicide, such a dire result would probably happen only when a dominant nation (like today’s America) lets a Fourth Turning ekpyrosis engulf the planet.  But this outcome is well within the reach of foreseeable technology and malevolence.

The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation.  It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify.  This nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, Etruria ten, the Soviet Union (perhaps) only one.  Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival.  Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a threat in more than one battle.  In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most horrible war in history.  In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed.  In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.

Or the Fourth Turning could simply mark the end of the Millennial Saeculum.  Mankind, modernity, and America would all persevere.  Afterward, there would be a new mood, a new High, and a new saeculum.  America would be reborn.  But, reborn, it would not be the same.

The new saeculum could find America a worse place.  As Paul Kennedy has warned, it might no longer be a “great power.”  Its global stature might be eclipsed by foreign rivals.  Its geography might be smaller, its culture less dominant, its military less effective, its government less democratic, its Constitution less inspiring.  Emerging from its millennial chrysalis, it might evoke nothing like the hope and respect of its “American Century” forbear.  Abroad, people of goodwill and civilized taste might perceive this society as a newly dangerous place.  Or they might see it as decayed, antiquated, an Old New World less central to human progress than we now are.  All this is plausible, and possible, in the natural turning of saecular time.

Alternatively, the new saeculum could find America, and the world, a much better place.  Like England in the Reformation Saeculum, the Superpower America of the Millennial Saeculum might merely be a prelude to a higher plane of civilization.  Its new civic life might more nearly resemble that “shining city on a hill” to which its colonial ancestors aspired.  Its ecology might be freshly repaired and newly sustainable, its economy rejuvenated, its politics functional and fair, its media elevated in tone, its culture creative and uplifting, its gender and race relations improved, its commonalities embraced and differences accepted, its institutions free of the corruptions that today seem entrenched beyond correction.  People might enjoy new realms of personal, family, community, and national fulfillment.  America’s borders might be redrawn around an altered but more cogent geography of public community.  Its influence on world peace could be more potent, on world culture more uplifting.  All this is achievable as well.

Conclusion

2020 was not the Climax; the Crisis of the Forth Turning in America. That still lies ahead of us.

I hope it never comes to this. In lieu, I can see the Balkinization of the country take place, sides would move to designated areas and set up permanent camp. There may be 2, 3 or more countries within the US before the dust settles.

-Survivalist Boards

A climax is a major event. It is typically marked by full-scale discord and absolute totality of full-scale war. That did not occur in 2020. That is not occurring now. 2020 was marked by a “pandemic”. Most Americans (through their media) believe that either [1] it is a hoax, or [2] it is a new strain of flu that is sweeping the globe. It is neither. It is a bio-weapon attack on China by the neocon Trump administration gone terribly wrong.

Xi Peng and Putin do not get their intel from Rush Limbaugh, Alex Jones, and CNN. They get it from their Intel divisions. And both nations have a full picture of what is going on, has gone on and will go on further.

Both nations (China and Russia) filed a formal complaint against the United States for launching this bio-weapon (and all the others that it launched in late 2020). And while Americans ignored this complaint, pretending that it is meaningless, it did do something. It marked the start of Russia and China teaming up militarily against the United States.

…

United States. (With the UK, Canada, Israel, and Australia.) Today there is isolated America. Confused. Arrogant. Thrashing and moaning. Demanding all sorts of things.

The Rest of the World. And the rest of the world, lead by Russia, and China, that are very carefully and very precisely planning to stop all this nonsense once and for all.

…

…

And America learned nothing.

Keep in mind that the last pandemic of 1918 was not a climax event, though it certainly was a contributor that lead to events that shaped the actual Climax. A climax is full-scale-war. It’s terrible discord at home domestically, and engagement with a major “hot” war. Both at the same time.

The “Fourth Turning” is a crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval — the old order is toppled and a new one put in its place. 

As America’s most recent “Third Turning” began in the mid-1980s, it was due to expire in the first decade of the 21st century. If we accept Howe and Strauss’ thesis, America has already entered its next “Fourth Turning”.

-What exactly is the “Fourth Turning” envisioned by William ...

It’s a combination of events that will shatter all norms, and make people settle down and just be happy to drink some simple tea under the shade of a tree.

No.

It hasn’t yet arrived.

Many world leaders feel that we are approaching a major war. Countries are preparing for war, with Russia and China at the forefront, and Japan starting its own re-militarization program. 

According to the Strauss-Howe theory, 2017 is equivalent to 1933 (when Hitler got in charge and started rebuilding Germany’s army), 1854 (when the prospect of an American Civil War felt more and more imminent), and 1779 (the middle of the American Revolutionary War against Britain, and the year of the French Revolution). 

Needless to say, right now we are living in very interesting times.

-Charting the Strauss Howe Fourth Turning

The piles of brush and fallow fields are all smouldering. A bunch of kids are playing with matches at the edge of the field, a lighting storm is gathering in the skies, a dog knocked over the logs that held the fire pit and the ashes are smoldering in the dry grass, and a tanker truck full of gasoline crashed and tipped over and all the gasoline is spilling into the dry, dry field.

All the signs are there.

No one is calling the fire department to start engaging in preventative measures. Instead every one is standing by watching it smolder, chewing on crud and going moo.

…

The nearest practical equivalent that I can illustrate is a Civil Defense officer wearing a helmet and telling everyone to get into the bomb shelter. Meanwhile you can hear the bombs drop and explode in the far distance, as they are getting closer and closer to you.

World War II
Civil Defense Warden

A “Crisis” will be an actual “Crisis”. All you need to do is compare it to previous fourth turnings.

The “Fourth Turning” is a crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval — the old order is toppled and a new one put in its place. 

-What exactly is the “Fourth Turning” envisioned by William ...

The last crisis was a five year war, with nuclear, and chemical weapons. It consisted of a complete meltdown in the American economy, and the loss of the lives of millions of people. It changed America and resulted in the formation of outsourcing Congressional power to alphabet organizations, turning America into a military empire, and a multi-decade “cold war”.

The crisis before that was also a five year war, using the most modern weapons available at the time. The entire society was torn apart and rebuilt. American state economies were shattered and the resulting reconstruction period lasted a full decade. It changed America and resulted in not only a ban on alcohol, but also the income tax system.

No.

The Crisis hasn’t yet arrived.

Check out this most interesting graphic. It’s a close up view of a much larger graphic that puts all the Strauss and Howe Fourth Turning writings into a really nice pictorial. Amazing.

The best graphic ever on the fourth turning.
Plotting when wars occurred during the Fourth Turning. This very interesting graphic clearly shows when the expected Climax will occur, and it is pointing straight towards a “hot war”. America will not win that “Hot war”. And America will be forever changed afterwards.

.

This chart is just one quadrant of a much larger graphic. It shows the seasonality of Anglo-American history since the end of the Middle Ages, according to the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory (as described in their 1997 book The Fourth Turning). Click here to download an enlarged version of the entire chart..

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What to do when you are having trouble writing new affirmations for your prayer campaign.

Are you having trouble with your affirmation campaign? Well, you are not alone. I am getting numerous private emails by people that describe this problem. That includes just about everyone. Including MM myself. As a result, I am releasing this “emergency” post to help everyone out of this situation.

Oh what to do?

Suddenly you have a difficult time writing your affirmations, and everything seems discordant. Your words no longer pour out of you, and it’s feels difficult to move forward with any new ideas, new wordings, or even the most basic reviews of where you are are now in your writings.

You are not alone.

I am in the first month of my new campaign and I must say, I’m having a hard time with wording. Something feels off about it, almost as if I’m being too vague and basic about the words. I surely don’t want to mess it up, because these are very very important to me. Do you have any suggestions?

The Basic Suggestion

For starters, you can always continue your old campaign. Just continue reading off the good-old standby affirmations that you have written down. By doing so you add energy and strength to your earlier affirmations and they will continue to plow through the waves of the MWI and move you towards to destinations.

Don’t try too hard.

If you have something new you want to add, then add it. And do not worry about whether it is polished perfectly or not. Just plop it there in it’s imperfect form. It’s the thoughts that matter, not the specific wording.

Stick to the basics. Good health for you and your loved ones. Protection from discord, bad people, evil intentions, or events that might destroy your familial happiness.

Make sure that your affirmations say only good and positive things about you and your loved ones futures. If you are feeling discord, then this is NOT the time to start new affirmation campaign goals. You need to solidify the seeds that you have already planted.

What’s going on?

There are many reasons for a “mind block” in regards to the generation of new affirmation prayers for a campaign. Though the larger number of inquiries that I am currently getting is quite alarming. It’s almost like there is a “disturbance in the force” to use a Star Wars movie reference.

I wrote this a few days back in my personal journal…

Feel an ugly crazy disturbance of some sort. Something is going on… not me personally. Just in general. Like how dogs and cats freak out before an earthquake.

It’s like this…

Ripples in the MWI.
Ripples in the MWI. Where the Y-axis is a measure of world-line entropy variance from previous life-line vectors.

.

If you, the reader, are not feeling any of this do not be alarmed. A person’s reality is a very personal thing and not everyone shares the same world-line template. We just have a tendency to touch or share the templates of others (rarely the world-lines) occasionally.

We are individuals

Yes we are. We are all different. And as such what we might experience or feel will differ from person to person. That is a good thing.

Having a difficulty in laying out a new set of affirmations need not be alarming. It’s just that perhaps there are other things that are making it difficult to concentrate on the future… like a discordant future. Or, a discordant present.

Don’t worry about it.

It’s called “being a human”.

Just follow the basic rules…

  • When in doubt, just default to the last campaign affirmations.
  • If you feel a need to add “something”, just add affirmations that relate to personal health and well-being. Make sure that not matter what, your prayers are protective in nature.
  • Unless you are young and experimental, it is far better to have health and stability in your life. Focus on that.
  • If you want to push for new “things” then be specific and then forget about them when your affirmations end.

Sample affirmations

Here’s some sample affirmations to get you all started…

  • I, my family, and my friends are safe, healthy, and live a stable and secure life.
  • Good things and moving into place for me, my family and my friends.
  • My life is very lucky and I am able to avoid problems, distress or upset.
  • I know why I am having what ever troubles that I am experiencing now, and I understand the reasons and purposes for them.

Don’t “freak out”

Change is difficult to take, but usually results in new experiences, new adventures and new opportunities. If you are having trouble and feel these disturbances, do not get too worked out about it. Just “go with the flow”. All will be good.

Chill out with some friends or family, or a much beloved pet. When in doubt, do not isolate. Get around people. The people will help break you out of whatever “funk” you are in, and you will end up being able to break out of the “prayer affirmation writing block” that you are in.

…and…

Merry Christmas!

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Contemporaneous American youth as a consequence of the United States successful stratification of society into rulers and serf peasantry via education

There’s a lot of things that you can say about all the changes going on in America today. I have written about this extensively. But one area that I hardly touched upon is the way that the American public education system has been geared up to produce peasants.

Yes, you read that correct. Peasants.

The rulers, and the wealthy (aren’t they one and the same?) send their children off to private (for profit) expensive schools for education. Everyone else, by law, must attend “public” schools, where the government decides what will be taught, when and how.

These “public schools” indoctrinate. They train young youth to become reactionary (as opposed to free-thinking), and to obey authority without question. They learn that they must work within the systems provided, pay taxes because it is necessary, and conform at all costs.

Which results in some really stunning changes to the population…

Now, this subject has been covered elsewhere by other authors on both sides (heck, all sides) of the political spectrum. Neither side likes it.

  • The traditional conservatives are horrified at what is being taught, and want to eject their children from the educational system and home-school them.
  • The progressive liberals are concerned that the schools are not progressive enough, and that real change is necessary given how messed up the United States is today.

Now…

Don’t get confused.

American peasants. These are the under-employed strata of the peasant class.

Please, it’s easy to get confused, but don’t.

I live inside of (so called) “Communist China”, but China hasn’t been “communist” since the late 1970’s. Instead, it is a single-party, traditional, social republic, internally policed with membership by merit. Which is think is light-years of improvement over the fiasco that Mr. Mao setup back in the 1940’s.

And America…

That “land of the free”, of “democracy” and “liberty” is only a myth perpetuated by the ignorant. America ceased being “free” with the passage of the 11th amendment, and has has six major reorganizations of governmental structure since. Today it is a Military Empire, serviced by American tax-paying serfs, for the well being of the ruling oligarchy.

I argue that the changes to the American population is NOT random or a natural evolution. I argue that it is intentional.

Just like the former Soviet Union tried to remake the Russian population into loyal serfs, so has the United States tried to do so.

Here is an interesting take on this matter by a woman who used to live inside Russia while it was hard-core communist. She teaches inside America and is shocked how little the student understand history and what hard-core Marxist Communism is. Of course, the reader might think that all this has to do with political ideology. I argue something different…

I argue that this is what you see when there is an overt attempt at the stratification of society into separate and distinct classes of people; The rulers, and the ruled.

So don’t look at the following article as “communism being indoctrinated inside of America“, instead look at it as an attempt by the American oligarchy to create a nation of serf-peasants by using the same techniques that successfully operated within the former Soviet Union.

The following is a direct reprint of “A Russian Woman Working as a College Professor in the US Writes About the Sovietization of Amerika” by Rod Dreher Sat, Feb 29, 2020. It was edited to fit this venue, and all credit to the writer.

A Russian Woman Working as a College Professor in the US Writes About the Sovietization of Amerika

I’m in the editing and rewriting stage of Live Not By Lies now, but I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to talk yesterday with a woman I’ll call “Clarissa,” whose stories were so good that I’m weaving them into the book’s narrative.

Clarissa is a college professor who emigrated to the US from Russia as a young woman, a few years after the fall of the Soviet Union. She is yet another ex-Soviet bloc person who is extremely anxious about the emergence of soft totalitarianism here. Of course she can’t use her real name, because she fears professional retaliation. It should tell us something that not a single academic from a former communist country that I interviewed for this book was willing to speak using their own name — this, in the Land of the Free. Why not? Because they were afraid of facing professional consequences for speaking out against identity politics and the “social justice” regime. Below, some quotes from our interview:

I have the feeling of extreme frustration. Our stories of  people in the former Soviet space are constantly dismissed. I have no  idea why. 

I think it happens because people still think that the ideas  that existed in the Soviet Union are basically good – that it was the  execution that was at times excessive. 

My father says what happened to  us was not about the economic system. The economic system was just an  excuse. This could happen anywhere – even under capitalism.
The American serf-peasant class buying necessities at a store.

—

Totalitarianism is something that takes away from people the  unbearable burden of freedom. It allows many people to hound and  persecute with impunity. That is pleasant in many senses. 

There was a  practice in the Soviet Union where people would be told to get together  in groups at work and write letters to the newspaper to denounce famous  poets or artists. 

We see that today in Twitter. People love that because  it allows a little person to completely destroy somebody who has done  something great.

This is very human. Once you have removed any moral or religious obstacles to that behavior, what’s to stop anybody?

—

When I was nine years old, I had a teacher of Russian literature. I  really admired her. 

What we didn’t know was that her father was a high  ranking KGB officer. 

He found out that a little girl in our class,  Masha, was attending church with her parents, and not only that, but was  singing in the choir. The teacher one day pulled that little girl out  in the class and for an hour unleashed a torrent of abuse on this child.  

For what? 

The feeling of power of persecuting that child in front of  the rest of us. This is not happening right now in the US, but it’s conceivable.

—

(On American vulnerability to totalitarianism)

It’s American exceptionalism. 

You all think you’re such special people that you’re going to do it right. 

If socialism comes here, don’t  worry, we’ll make it happen in the correct way. 

Not true! Ten years ago  if you had told me I would be seeing this in the US, I would have  laughed in your face. But now it’s happening. I’m seeing it happening to  my friends. 

It’s like their minds are disintegrating.
American peasant serfs are not taught discipline, care, concern, morals, or basic behavior. Instead they are taught to be automatons for the state. In much the same way that the former Soviet Union instructed unyielding obedience and a squashing of independence. You can see this lack of discipline throughout America today.

—

Once your religion is taken away, you still have a need for an  overarching moral law. 

You’re going to look for it somewhere else, even  outside religion. We’re seeing it now with this identity politics. … 

In  the Soviet Union when I was young, cynicism was everywhere. Nobody  believed in anything. Everybody just went through the motions. 

I used to  think that cynicism was the worst thing in the world. It’s not. The  worst thing in the world is the lack of cynicism and critical  difference, and accepting everything uncritically. 

These people today,  they really believe all this woke ideology. And that’s what’s really  scary.

I have a friend who is very woke. The woke ideology is the belief is  that if somebody departs from the dogma, even by an inch, that person is  an evil, hate-filled bigot. 

When I disagree with her, I can see that  she genuinely can’t comprehend that I disagree with her. She knows I’m a  good person, but here I am disagreeing with her. She can’t understand  it. And she’s an educated person! A college professor.

The intellectuals are playing a dangerous game. They think they can  control it. They think that once their ideas are imposed on society,  they can control it. That’s ludicrous. They’re going to be the first  ones the system turns on, because as intellectuals, they can be the  first ones to spot the flaws in the system.

Nobody is going to be safe. Nobody can pledge enough allegiance to this kind of system to protect themselves.

—

I mentor early career academics. I used to enjoy it, but not anymore.  These graduate students are not producing scholarship. They’re just  turning in collections of woke slogans. 

I don’t even know what to do  with that. When we start talking to the younger academics, they don’t  understand what we want for them. They were taught this way, and they’re  reproducing it. 

I see this from students who come to college. 

It seems  like all they get in the schools is dogma. They are blank slates. They  have no real knowledge of anything – they just repeat slogans, and when  you ask them to explain it, they turn blank.

In the Soviet Union, when you were a student and assigned to write a paper, you knew that the thing to do was to go straight to the correct books in the library and copy the relevant articles, word for word, with  no deviations. 

That was your paper. 

When my family left, we arrived in  Canada, and I entered the university there. When I was assigned my first paper, I found it impossible to believe that the teacher really did  want me to think for myself. It was an incredible feeling! 

To think  about something, and to say what I really thought about it! It was so  weird, but so liberating.Now, I’m seeing young people who are just like we were in the Soviet  Union. 

They are afraid to think for themselves. They only want to know  what the “right” answer is, and repeat it. It’s depressing.

—

The problem is that many people still associate totalitarianism with  an all-powerful state, and if it doesn’t come from the state, it’s not  totalitarianism. 

What we’re dealing with now is not coming from the  state. None of us are afraid that the government is going to send secret  police and take us to the dungeon. 

That’s not going to happen. 

No.  We’re afraid of being humiliated and deprived of a living. Of being a  pariah, of being marginalized, unpersonned, cancelled. 

You don’t need  the government for that, especially in the age of social media. It  wasn’t the government hounding those Covington Catholic boys, or J.K.  Rowling.

Voting for someone [as a protest against political correctness] is wonderful, but the government cannot solve this problem.

—

Since I started going to church a couple of years ago, I began to  understand what was taken from us. I feel incredibly angry that we were  deprived of something that’s such a huge part of our culture and  civilization, that it taken from us. I take my little girl to church and  Sunday school. I want my child to know this so she doesn’t have to  discover it in her forties, and feel clumsy.

—

I wish we had some form of a secret handshake [on my campus]. I know a  couple of other professors on campus who I suspect are one of us. But  everybody is so closeted, it’s impossible to talk about it.

We have this bias response team that prowls the campus looking  for signs of non-compliance, and to justify their existence. We had the  same thing in the Soviet Union. 

Right now they’re on campus, but  eventually, they’re going to be in every workplace. If you have  everybody in your workplace trained in diversity, then you can treat  your workers however you like, and nobody will care.

(On the culture created by diversity and sensitivity training in the workplace)

All your co-workers are enemies. Either they can get you in trouble,  or they are out to destroy you with an accusation. It destroys all sorts  of uncontrollable communities – friendship, families, church  communities. When you set people against each other, they are much  easier to control. This is what it was like under totalitarianism.

—

By the way, here is a link to Clarissa’s blog, if you’re interested. Here’s a post from a previous blog of hers, about her father’s life as a closeted Christian in the USSR.

Here’s a Clarissa post on teaching a class on totalitarianism. 

Excerpt:

The wall-to-wall propaganda that characterizes this new  totalitarianism isn’t state-sponsored either. It’s disseminated solely  through corporate channels. Traditional politicians are squeezed out by  TV and social media stars who represent this new form of power. The  complete dependence of their popularity on Twitter and Instagram means  they will do absolutely anything to avoid being deplatformed. It’s no  longer about courting rich donors to donate to your campaign. Now it’s  all about being a funny enough clown that attracts hits and likes to  enrich the owners of these platforms.

Every day, the power of these giant corporations to unearth a tweet  or a like on a tweet that can sink absolutely anybody grows. There is no  need for a state to keep a dossier of kompromat (compromising  material) on each citizen. This process has been completely  corporatized. And the worst part is that people who are wielding this  sort of coercive power honestly see themselves as powerless victims who  have to defend themselves from coercion.

You know, since I started writing this post, I went to look up the blog entry I posted from my first interview with Clarissa, a year or so ago. I couldn’t find it, except in my notes for the book. I wonder if I ever posted it. Sorry if you’ve already seen it, but I suspect I forgot to put it on the site.

Here’s the text:

Just got off the phone with a Soviet-born academic who teaches in a small state university in the American heartland. She blogs under the name “Clarissa,” but I got her real name, and checked her out. She’s REALLY excited about this book, and told me she would be a source, and introduce me to the emigre community. She’s teaching a class on totalitarianism this semester, and is unnerved to have discovered that every single one of her students thinks that socialism is a good thing.

“I teach in the heart of America, in what a lot of people think of as the Bible Belt, and this is how they think,” she said.

She got her PhD at a top American university (I checked this out), and said that it was a constant struggle there to be heard. Whenever Marxist topics would come up, she would talk about her experience in the USSR, and people would shout her down. “You wouldn’t believe the rage in their faces,” she said. “They did not want to hear it.”

She said that when she talks to her parents and tells her about things she’s seeing as an American academic, within academia, they’re shocked. They keep saying, “It’s like we had it back in the Soviet Union!”

She has learned to be very, very careful about what she says among her colleagues. She knows that nobody wants to hear it, and now she’s afraid of being identified and punished. She said, “I have to live my intellectual and spiritual life underground. I stay silent about so many things with my colleagues because I know that they would honestly and sincerely see me as some kind of monster because of the things I believe, which are in no way radical.”

Yesterday a tenured academic she knows in California wrote to her to say that he withdrew from publication a paper he had written that very mildly criticizes woke dogma (she didn’t say what it was) within the academy, because he lost his nerve. He’s tenured, so he wasn’t afraid of losing his job. He was afraid of becoming a pariah — of his friends turning their backs on him because of his views, and others being afraid to take his side out of fear that they would be seen as tainted.

“To be honest, I wouldn’t want anybody at work to know I read your blog,” she said.

She also said that she can’t stand Trump, but has come to see him as the only obstacle between herself and total progressive madness. “It’s the most frustrating thing!” she said, her voice rising. I told her I agreed with her, and we laughed about that.

The diversity commissars have everybody terrified at her university, she said. Recently the chief diversity officer publicly identified her as “transphobic.” Why? Because a student asked her about use of the term “Latinx.” It came up in class, and as a Spanish speaker, she mentioned that many Spanish speakers hate the term. For this, she was identified as “transphobic” by the diversity office. She said that she didn’t even express an opinion about the term, only noted that it’s not popular among Spanish speakers. So now she’s on the watch list.

Here’s something really interesting: she said that one of her research interests is how multinational corporations undermine the nation-state. She said that wokeness in corporate America is a weapon used by white-collar professionals to weed out competitors for increasingly scarce jobs. She said, “People find ideological purity tests useful to weed out people who compete for jobs you cover. Progressive forces are completely allied with globalist capitalism.”

She also said that people have no idea how vulnerable they are to this mindset, because of social media. “You will not be able to predict what will be held against you tomorrow. You have no idea what completely normal thing you do today, or say today, will be used against you to destroy you. This is what people in the Soviet Union saw. We know how this works. This is why people like me are so upset today. I’m so glad you’re writing this book. Thank you for calling me and letting me vent.”

Metallic comments…

It’s so easy to read this and fall into any one of the many “pigeon hole” narratives that we have been programmed to follow. Much like Pavlov’s dog, we must look at everything as political ideology. And that is the way that this professor looks at it. And that is the way that the author looks at it.

But that is not whats really going on.

What is actually going on is the [1] the system for social stratification used by the former Soviet Union,has [2] been ported and adopted by the United States and [3] it’s implementation has been through the American educational system.

It has created an environment that favors a Ruling Class that is served entirely by an under-educated peasant / serf class.

And we can see how this system has resulted in RADICAL changes to American society…

The following article is a complete reprint of “America 1950 vs. America 2020” by Michael Snyder on September 14, 2020. It was edited to fit this venue, and all credit to the author.

America 1950 vs. America 2020

If you could go back to 1950, would you do it?  There would be no Internet, no cellphones and you would only be able to watch television in black and white.  But even though they lacked many of our modern conveniences, people genuinely seemed to be much happier back then.  Families actually ate dinner together, neighbors knew and cared about one another, and being an “American” truly meant something.  Today, we like to think that we are so much more “advanced” than they were back then, but the truth is that our society is in the process of falling apart all around us.  Could it be possible that we could learn some important lessons by looking back at how Americans lived 70 years ago?

Of course there has never been any era in our history when everything has been perfect.  But without a doubt, things are vastly different today than they were back in 1950…

In 1950, Texaco Star Theatre, The Lone Ranger and Hopalong Cassidy were some of the most popular shows that Americans watched on television.

In 2020, a Netflix film entitled “Cuties” is so trashy and so disgusting that four states have sent a letter to Netflix asking for it to be removed because it is “fodder for those with criminal imaginations, serving to normalize the view that children are sexual beings.”

When an isolated ruling caste controls over under-educated peasants, there are apt to be conflicts and turmoil between the uneducated serfs.

In 1950, television networks would not even show husbands and wives in bed together.

In 2020, “adult websites” get more traffic than Netflix, Amazon and Twitter combined.

With social engineering comes a destruction of morals, when the government becomes the solution to all issues.

In 1950, people would greet one another as they walked down the street.

In 2020, Americans are too enamored with their cellphones to be bothered with actual human contact.

One of the first things to disappear during social re-engineering are societal manners.

In 1950, gum chewing and talking in class were some of the major disciplinary problems in our schools.

In 2020, kids are literally gunning down police officers in the streets.

With the collapse of the middle class, the PTB isolated themselves in enclaves, and the lower serf / peasant classes now merge with the unemployed and under-employed classes that are prone to violence.

In 1950, people would make an effort to dress up and look nice when they would go out in public.

In 2020, most of the population has become utter slobs and “People of Walmart” has become one of our most popular memes.

When you are a peasant, you don’t care about your public appearance.

In 1950, the typical woman got married for the first time at age 20 and the typical man got married for the first time at age 22.

In 2020, the typical woman gets married for the first time at age 27 and the typical man gets married for the first time at age 29.

With societal change comes an evolution from a generalized behavior via the r/K theory.

In 1950, a lot of people would leave their homes and their vehicles unlocked because crime rates were so low.

In 2020, many that live in urban areas are deathly afraid of all the civil unrest that has erupted, and gun sales have soared to all-time record highs.

With a segregated and stratified society are large numbers of unnecessary people. Who resort to crime for entertainment and emotional escape.

In 1950, Americans actually attempted to parent their children.

In 2020, we pump our kids full of mind-altering drugs and we let our televisions and our video games raise our children.

Like the former Soviet Union, people use escape methods to leave a life that is stressful and that they have no control over.

In 1950, Baltimore was one of the most beautiful and most prosperous cities on the entire planet.

In 2020, Baltimore regularly makes headlines because of all the murders that are constantly occurring.  Of course the exact same thing could be said about many of our other major cities.

Along with the collapse of society comes the collapse of the infrastructure that supports the society.

In 1950, 78 percent of all households in America contained a married couple.

In 2020, that figure has fallen below 50 percent.
In 1950, about 5 percent of all babies in the United States were born to unmarried parents.

In 2020, about 40 percent of all babies in the United States will be born to unmarried parents.

A total breakdown in American society structure that favors both parents working in grey cube boxes, and not raising children as family units.

In 1950, new churches were regularly being opened all over the United States.

In 2020, it is being projected that 1 out of every 5 churches in the U.S. “could be forced to shut their doors in the next 18 months”, and the mayor of Lubbock, Texas just said that opening a new Planned Parenthood clinic is like starting a church.

America needs no moral compass. The government controls all. Thus, the oligarchy controls everything.

In 1950, we actually had high standards for our elected officials, and people actually did research on the candidates before they cast their votes.

In 2020, more than 4,000 people in one county in New Hampshire voted for a “transsexual Satanic anarchist” in the Republican primary, and she is now the Republican nominee for sheriff in Cheshire County.

American government has become a joke.

In 1950, children would go outside and play when they got home from school.

In 2020, our parks and our playgrounds are virtually empty and we have the highest childhood obesity rate in the industrialized world.

Children have become isolated, and easy to entertain with sedentary pastimes. Just like the former Soviet Union citizens became.

In 1950, front porches were community gathering areas, and people would regularly have their neighbors over for dinner.

In 2020, many of us don’t know our neighbors at all, and the average American watches more than five hours of television a day.

Americans have become isolated, and easy to control. Just like the former Soviet Union citizens became.

In 1950, Americans used words such as “knucklehead”, “moxie” and “jalopy”.

In 2020, new terms such as “nomophobia”, “peoplekind” and “social distancing” have been introduced into the English language.

Normal change is trivial. But when someone or some nation is involved in social change it will affect everything, including the language.

In 1950, the very first credit card was issued in the United States.

In 2020, Americans owe more than 930 billion dollars on their credit cards.

Americans are in debt and must work to stay alive. The consequence of not working is starvation and possibly prison.

In 1950, one income could support an entire middle class household.

In 2020, tens of millions of Americans have lost their jobs and filed for unemployment, and more than half of all households in some of our largest cities are currently facing “serious financial problems”.

An entire family must toil to pay the taxes and fees, and living costs. All of which benefit the wealthy elite.

In 1950, the American people believed that the free market should govern the economy.

In 2020, most Americans seem to believe that the government in Washington and the Federal Reserve must endlessly “manage” the economy.

Now, people expect the wealthy oligarchy to provide for their needs through a mechanism known as “the government”.

In 1950, “socialists” and “communists” were considered to be our greatest national enemies.

In 2020, most of our politicians in Washington have eagerly embraced socialist and communist policy goals.

From independence to dependence on government.

In 1950, the U.S. Constitution was deeply loved and highly revered.

In 2020, anyone that actually admits to being a “constitutionalist” is considered to be a potential domestic terrorist.

The original constitution supported independence from government. That is a dangerous idea today.

In 1950, the United States loaned more money to the rest of the world than anybody else.

In 2020, the United States owes more money to the rest of the world than anybody else.

America is in dept, as the ruling oligarchy operates above and isolated form the government that it controls. They are safe no matter what happens.

In 1950, the total U.S. national debt reached the 257 billion dollar mark for the first time in our history.

In 2020, we added 864 billion dollars to the national debt in the month of June alone.  In other words, we added over three times more to the national debt in that one month than the total amount of debt that had been accumulated from the founding of our nation all the way to 1950.

The wealthy oligarchy can drive a nation into the ground. It matters not to them. For they exist above and beyond the government.

In 1950, most Americans were generally happy with their lives.

In 2020, the suicide rate is at an all-time record high, and it has been rising every single year since 2007.

It sucks being a poor peasant.

Conclusion

Change is a natural part of life. When you get older, such as myself, you view change with a kind of nostalgia. You miss “the good old days”. But the fact is that most change is artificial.

Prior to the Industrial Revolution, most change was glacial. Entire generations would come and go with very little change in their lives.

So what was driving the change?

Technology?

Yah! Well, that’s the standard “boiler plate” answer.

And yes, it is true that “technology” was what advanced change during the “Industrial revolution”, but it is really only a small contributor. Something else happened at the same time…

It was the power, and the methodology of large government ruled by small groups of men.

Did you notice the changes since 1950? Did you notice what had changed? Yes, everything that changed favored the small elite Ruling Class of America at the expense of the working class. In fact, the working class had become serf / slaves. And that is why the Ruling class treats them like the peasants that they are.

I will say it again, and repeat. What changed everything was…

Large powerful governments ruled by small groups of men.

The major driver of change are governments, for they alone have the power to change society. And society, like it or not, is what drives all the changes in our lives. And the number one method that these governments use to enact social change is the education system.

Thus we have a situation where the United States government has adopted the very same stratification systems employed by the former Soviet Union.

The reason why America is currently “on fire” and such a mess right now is because the stratification process is nearly complete. There are large segments of the society that welcomes their new roles as serfs and peasants (out of ignorance) and large sections that do not.

Unlike the Soviet Union. In Russia, Stalin killed enormous groups of people, and anyone who would oppose him was rounded up, killed outright or sent off to die of starvation. When he implemented his stratification program, he had very little remaining opposition.

That is not the case in America today.

Thus,

The ruling oligarchy is looking at this situation and sees that the former Soviet Union system of control can only happen when there are large groups of opposition forces out of the way. In order to implement their segregation and stratification initiatives, they will need to devise a system to suppress these opposition forces.

What will happen is unknown.

  • Civil War
  • An external war of distraction.
  • A World War.
  • Nothing, just more of the same ratcheting up in severity.

But the PTB pretty much expect that all this to settle out eventually. One way or the other. And when the dust settles and the fires die out, and the survivors start to rebuild their lives, you can well realize that the world will be quite different going out, than what it is today; going in.

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Deagel August 2020 Forecast For America has the population dropping a full 70% by 2025

It’s one thing to have Alex Jones predicting that the United States is going to collapse any day now, and it is another thing entirely when an intelligence analyst says so. And thus we have this bit of shocking news. A global military intelligence website has revised it’s five year forecast to predict a massive drop in American population by 2025.

Deagel.com is apparently some sort of global military intelligence site. They have had an online presence since 2003. They report on high-level military equipment assets and keep track of military expenditures by country “with nearly impeccable numbers”. It’s very similar to Janes.

However, unlike Janes, this is not an “Industry” outlet. But rather an “intelligence” outlet staffed with retired or former intelligence and military folk. As such, it is interesting to those of us that follow the military trends in industry.

Now, since the Military-Industrial cabal has pretty much the “lion’s share” of the oligarchy control over the United States government, any military intelligence related to this should be considered important. For this level of intelligence is what industry uses to make forecasts and projects for markets and survivability of the sales generation options.

In Late August, the Internet was all buzzing about a forecast on this website…

Deagel Forecast For USA – Population Drops 70% by 2025

One aspect of their site is to “forecast” financial outlooks for countries around the world. They track GDP (gross domestic product), defense budgets, and even population (forecasts) for each country.

No one knows for sure, but I’ve read that their sources are “the ‘deep state’ with the CIA, US Department of Defense, US Department of State and World Bank contributing data for their forecasts.

According to their own website, Deagel provides news and intelligence on international military aviation and advanced technologies.

Little is known about the real owner(s). The site name is registered in France. All online information about them is “redacted for privacy”. The site hosting company is located in Old Tappan, New Jersey. Which is pretty much in a semi-rural location with some nice wooded hills and nothing much else. The only thing that I can recall (personally) about that area is the rather large contingent of Jewish establishments there.

Deagel Forecasts Massive Depopulation in the USA by 2025

They have been forecasting a huge population drop in the United States for several years. They haven’t changed their forecast. It’s been projected to decrease for a long time now. And the election of Donald trump made no difference in the projection.

Current population of the USA is about 327 million.

Deagle forecast for 2025 is 100 million.

What this means is that the defense intelligence organizations represented by Deagel believe that there will be some kind of event or series of events that will result in a major population drop by 2025.

Deagel site projections.

From the chart above we can clearly see a number of conclusions or extrapolations that they have made.

[1] USA Population (Red notations)

According to their projections, by the years 2025, the population of the United States would decrease. It would go from 327 million people to 100 million people. This would be approximately a 70% decrease in population over a short period of time (from now 2020 to 2025 = five years).

[2] World Population (Purple notations)

According to their projections, the entire world would suffer through a depopulation event. With the population decreasing from 7,385 million people to 6.870 million people. This is a drop of 515 million people. This is about a 7% decrease in the world population.

Thus taking [1] and [2] together, we can see that they expect the United States to take the brunt of most of the population decrease.

[3] American Defense Budget (Blue Notations)

We can see that they anticipate a very drastic decrease in American military spending by 2025. From $637 billion to $32 billion. It would be a reduction to 5% of what the current budget is.

Certainly they anticipate that the American military would be repurposed to a significant extent and this budget would not be able to support any kinds of expeditionary foreign operations.

[4] Global Defense Budgets (Green Notations)

This is very interesting, while there is a slight decrease in global defense spending, the change in spending values is small (comparatively). The global spending would go from $1.7 trillion to $1.2 trillion dollars.

Obviously they believe that the rest of the world’s military would still be funded at nearly the same levels as presently shown.

What are they saying?

To look at the chart and observe the numbers, they anticipate some kind of event or series of events that will take place IN AMERICA between 2020 and 2025.

These event(s) will dramatically decrease the size of the United States population.

The global population will also be reduced as well, but not at all at the same level of catastrophic drop that America will experience. It will not be as catastrophic to the rest of the world as it will be for Americans.

By 2025, the American military would be severely scaled down to a mere 5% of what it is now (by budget). But the rest of the world would pretty much keep their military budgets as the same level.

And this all means that…

  • America’s GDP will collapse from $19T to $1.6T.
  • PPP (Power purchasing parity) would collapse from $60,000 to $16,000

The resulting America would not look like anything that would be recognizable to anyone today. Those survivors would be struggling financially, and economically. America would not longer be a global superpower or “the policeman” for the world. Most of the rest of the world would move on, and continue with their lives and societies. While Americans would be undergoing some very severe changes to it’s society and cultures.

How did they arrive at these conclusions?

No one really knows how they came to these numbers and figures. But we do know that these are the same kinds of figures that the intelligence and military agencies use to make forecasts for spending, planning and purchases.

What I can pretty much say is that these figures pretty much match up with the John Titor narrative. He claimed to be a time traveler from the future, and pretty much said all of what is being presented here. It’s just that his dates were off by exactly ten years.

You all can read what he had to say in my John Titor Index here…

John Titor

But these figures pretty much agree with the Fourth Turning predictions and other predictive sources that I have mentioned in my SHTF Index. Many people are pretty much convinced that the USA is under a state of collapse. The question is not “if”, but “When” and “how bad” it will be.

And let me offer some thoughts…

Metallicman commentary

There’s much I can say, and much that I cannot. But I will throw out some things to give the reader pause to contemplate…

  • A 70% decrease in the population signifies either [1] massive starvation, [2] a bio-weapon (i.e. smallpox. Something with a high R0 and high lethality.) WMD, or [3] A MAD level nuclear exchange with Russia.
  • China is “small potatoes” in regards to nuclear weapons. Their entire military is defensive in nature. They are no slouches, and could render the top ten American cities into radioactive glass. But they are not equipped to wage this kind of war with the USA. This level of destruction involves Russia.
  • Many people could die in an American Civil War, but not at a 70% level.
The low estimate of 600,000 is 1.91 percent of the census population. And 750,000 deaths would represent 2.38 percent of the total population. All told, the Civil War likely claimed somewhere between 2 percent and 2.5 percent of the total population.

-What Percentage of Americans Died During the Civil War ...

Starvation

Intentional starvation is the ONLY method, short of a full-on MAD-level nuclear exchange would result in these kinds of deaths. History tells us that Stalin, Mao and Pol Pot all were very successful in this effort.

In fact, the starvation of the Eastern European peoples by Stalin is exactly the kinds of events that can result in these high and terrifying numbers…

So I would have to suggest that it might be due to starvation.  This is a true and real possibility. Either through the loss and destruction of crops, or transportation and distribution channels, or by pricing the foods to un-affordable levels.

Bio-Weapons

The only nation that still maintains bio-weapon inventories and development is America. Last I heard it was under the control of neocon John Bolton.

The rest of the world just simply isn’t a threat.

Russia scaled down their operations back in the 1990’s. If the Russians still have this capability I would be surprised.

China has no bio-warfare labs, nor do they train and practice in this environment. Their only concern is defense.

North Korea might have bio-weapons, but there is no actual verification of this. Iran might also have bio-weapons, but again there is no actual verification of this.

The rest of the world just simply doesn’t have the resources to develop such weapons.

Since there is a real lack of “enemies” with this capability, it is unlikely that a bio-weapon event would ever occur. The only way that it would occur is if America used the weapons against some enemy and it boomeranged back to the United States.

Nuclear

True to form, Donald Trump has been re-configuring the military to use nuclear weapons in a strategic and tactical “humane” way. If so, this could trigger the Russian “Dead Hand” system, and unleash holy Hell upon an unprepared America.

Conclusion

How many times have you wished that you invested in Google back in the day when you had a chance? How many times do you lament not buying stock in Walmart, McDonald’s, Starbucks, or Microsoft? Well the future seems to be written on the wall…

Well, it pretty much looks like anyone who is going to remain in the United States for the next ten years is in for a very exciting and dangerous time. I do hope that it does not materialize, but it looks to me that a nice small bungalow cabin in Chile might be preferable to a penthouse apartment in Los Angles, a suburban house near Portland, or a mobile home in Kentucky.

As I have stated before, if you can…

…then leave the States. At this point, it doesn’t matter where, or how ill-prepared you are. I think you all need to start making the preparations to either shelter-in-place, or bug-out to less dangerous neighborhoods.

  • Those top-tier oligarchy members left for their underground bunkers in early March 2020.
  • Their highly-paid enablers and support “armies” are all publishing articles like this one. You can well recognize that “the writing is on the wall”, and that action should be well in process by now.

What ever happens, please keep in mind that food storage is important, as is being armed with something simple and reliable and dangerous. Like a shotgun. (Forget about those AK-47 look-alike clones. They cannot hit the side of a barn.) Learn skills like first aid, and other things that can enable you to be a well liked and well-needed person in your community. And finally, stop being a lone wolf. You work as part of a community, or you will DIE.

Good wishes.

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A few warnings about what is happening from people who have been there, and see America through the lens of experience.

Yesterday, I published a post by a Hard-Right conservative Russian who had some dire warnings for America and Americans. I published it with some caveats, as some of his terminology was repugnant to my readership (and me). Never the less, if you distill everything, he had something good to say.

He said “Organize”.

Now, I took his article and massaged it with Metallic finesse. And I laid it all out that it is the PTB (sitting comfortably in their mansions) that are the enemy. They want us to fight among ourselves.

Don’t.

To which I (sort of) twisted his message. I said yes, we must organize. But, organize, on both sides. Come together on both sides. Fight against the common enemy the PTB that are causing all this turmoil in the first place.

And that was my message.

The way for humanity to get through this trying and difficult time is to work together and subdue the evil psychopaths that have hoarded all the gold and are using it to destroy humanity and remake it in THEIR image.

Well…

Now let’s give equal time to some words of wisdom from the Left. And yes, I’m going to twist this message in a metallic way as well…

“We Don’t Know How to Warn You Any Harder. America is Dying.”

The title for this comes from Umair Haque, who has seen what is happening here now in America, and warns that those who have seen the end result elsewhere first hand are being ignored. He is crying out to be heard.

We Don’t Know How to Warn You Any Harder. America is Dying.

We Survivors of Authoritarianism Have a Message America Needs to Hear: This is Exactly How it Happens, and It’s Happening Here.

…We survivors of authoritarianism have a terrible, terrible foreboding, because we are experiencing something we should never do: deja vu. Our parents fled from collapsing societies to America. And here, now, in a grim and eerie repeat of history, we see the scenes of our childhoods played out all over again. Only now, in the land that we came to. We see the stories our parents recounted to us happening before our eyes, only this time, in the place they brought us to, to escape from all those horrors, abuses, and depredations.

We survivors are experiencing this terrible feeling of deja vu right now as a group, as a class. We talk about it, how eerie and grim this sense of deja vu is. It’s happening all over again! Do you remember this part of your childhood? When the armed men roamed the streets? When the secret police disappeared opponents? When the fascist masses united — and that was enough to destroy democracy for good? We talk about it, believe me — but you don’t hear it because we have no real voice. America’s pundits are named Chris and Jake and Tucker. They are not named Eduardo and Ravi and Xiao and Umair. But Chris and Jake and Tucker can’t help you now. They don’t know what the hell they’re dealing with. They literally have no idea because they have no experience whatsoever.

The only people who do right now in America are us survivors. Let me remind you, by the way, what happens we speak out: we lose whatever credibility and status we have. The moment I began to warn of this, I lost my column in HBR, my cable news appearances, and so forth. Don’t cry for me. Understand me, my friend, know me. If we had a voice, we survivors, we would be warning you as loudly and strongly as we possibly could.

All of us. We would say:

This is not a joke. This is not a drill. When we survivors of authoritarianism experience, as a group, a class, a cohort, something that we never, ever should — the horrific deja vu that the horrors of our childhoods, that our parents knew, are happening, all over again, here, something is much, much more wrong than you know.

This is what four more years looks like.

READ THE WHOLE THING. It may be the most important thing you read all day or all week or all month.

Consider just this one warning:

Why? They point to the complete breakdown of the rule of law. The rule of law only means something when an authoritarian can’t simply disappear people from the streets, ordering his paramilitary to do it, ignoring the constitution, discarding due process — with total impunity. But all that is exactly what Trump can do.

He now has the nascent powers of a Gaddafi or a Saddam. No, I’m not kidding. He doesn’t have the full powers, to be sure — but he certainly has the beginnings of them. Maybe he can’t have people tortured in jail yet — but he can have almost anyone he likes in America picked up and disappeared.

So how far away do you think even worse abuses of power are? When a tyrant can have almost anyone in a country they like disappeared, how far away do you really think torture is? Rape? Murder? I’m not being hyperbolic. I’m trying to speak to you like an adult. Will you listen?

Those words take on real urgency when you see something like this coming from the Trump administration.

Via Talking Points Memo:

Acting Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Chad Wolf stated that the Justice Department is looking into arresting leaders of Black Lives Matter (BLM) amid protests over the shooting of Jacob Blake by police officer Rusten Sheskey.

“Do you think the Department of Homeland Security is getting the help it needs from the Justice Department?” Fox News host Tucker Carlson asked. “Why haven’t we seen the leaders of antifa and BLM arrested and charged for conspiracy under, say, [Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Law], like the heads of the mafia families were?”

“This is something I talked to the AG personally about and I know that they are working on it,” Wolf replied, referring to Attorney General Bill Barr.

The DHS chief also stated that the Justice Department is “targeting and investigating the head of these organizations, the individuals that are paying for these individuals to move across the country.”

Carlson pressed Wolf on why the “funders” of the anti-police brutality protests “haven’t been punished.”

“Again, I would say that again the Department of Justice, who has the lead in all of those investigations, are certainly moving as quickly as possible,” Wolf said.

There is no evidence that the protesters are being paid by BLM leaders or anyone else, for that matter, nor is there evidence that BLM is directly responsible for violence at the protests.

It can happen here. It IS happening here.

Conclusion

That was the Hard-Left message.

Both the Hard-Right and the Hard-Left narratives are dripping with emotion and angst. Both are yelling at Americans. Both are saying “Wake Up!” Things can go really, really bad.

The Hard-Right offered a solution; Organize.

The Hard-Left also offered a solution; Embrace democracy more.

Scene from Aliens. You need to know what you are dealing with before your rush in and try to improve upon it.

Hum. Do you see where I am going with this? Both sides are correct. Both sides see that there is a problem. Both sides are terrified with what might happen. Both sides are concerned and offer solutions. But what are they?

More democracy.

WTF?

What is going on.

In both cases the people on both sides of the political spectrum look at the same failed model for answers and solutions. They look towards “democracy” to be the savior in this issue and the means to stop this mess.

It's like sheep that are unhappy with their lot in life. They look at the field next door. They see the taller, and greener grass, and the the other sheep, and they want to revolt and be like that other farm. They want to exchange their shepherd for another shepherd.

Here’s a big secret for you all…

“Democracy” is NOT the answer.

All democracies turn into oligarchies. And oligarchies turn into military empires. With various political solutions cropping up from time to time. 

It's pretty well discussed. You all should read the Federalist Papers. The founders of the United States pretty much laid all this out for everyone to see. No one listened, of course. But it is the historical record.

So what is the answer?

Well, if I were to wave a magic wand, and place an ideal governance upon the United States, the LAST thing that I would do is have a democracy.

Democracy is a failed model. It has an expiration date; a “half-life” before it devolves into something else.

No.

Democracy is the LAST thing that you want.

You want something else.

  • You want small government. That way it can be participative.
  • You want quick and responsive “feed back mechanisms” on the local level.
  • You want management by merit and ability.
  • You want rotating management with short terms of office.

Now, I can tell you what you do not want…

  • You don’t want the same system with different ideologies.
  • You don’t want a larger system.
  • You don’t want a bigger, more powerful system.
  • You don’t want a militarized system.

Now, China is doing it right. For how long is unknown. I do not know how long this current bout of Chinese governance will last for. But I do know that it shows the rest of the world that [1] things CAN be governed by merit over popularity. That [2] small levels of governance at the local level does work, and [3] that a policing mechanism for the leadership ranks (the Corruption Police) is necessary to control fraud.

So right now, in these early stages of the popular American revolt, everyone is thinking about changing the individuals and their party platforms that comprise the government. They are not talking about changing the way the government operates.

And they should.

Nothing will change otherwise.

If you want real change, real substantive change, then you need to nuke it all from orbit and start from scratch all over again.

Ripley meme.

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The Heart of the Matter in the South China Sea. China and America stare into the abyss

Right now, as I write this, America has two complete battle-ready carrier assault groups in the South China Sea. Each one has one Major carrier, and at least one minor carrier. In addition each are supported by numerous underwater hunter-killer submarines, and both B-1 and B-2 bombers are flying mission sorties over the South China Sea. They are being supported by the British navy with their massive aircraft carrier, and have assurances from Australia that they can be supplied if necessary.

What.

The.

Fuck.

This is extraordinarily dangerous and a difficult time. Why is Donald Trump playing this dangerous “game” with China? Why are these ships off the Chinese coast? And what is all this nonsense about the need to suppress China for “democracy”? Are they out of their collective minds?

Well…

Maybe they are…

The following is a reprint of a great article titled “The Heart of the Matter in the South China Sea” by Pepe Escobar . It was written on July 30, 2020 . It was found on UNZ and copied with very little editing short of fitting within this venue. All credit to the author. You can read the comments on the original article here; Comments .

When the Ronald Reagan and Nimitz carrier strike groups recently engaged in “operations” in the South China Sea, it did not escape to many a cynic that the US Pacific Fleet was doing its best to turn the infantile Thucydides Trap theory into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The pro forma official spin, via Rear Adm. Jim Kirk, commander of the Nimitz, is that the ops were conducted to…

“...reinforce our commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, a rules-based international order, and to our allies and partners”.

Nobody pays attention to these clichés, because the real message was delivered by a CIA operative posing as diplomat. Mr. Secretary of State Mike “We Lie, We Cheat, We Steal” Pompeo: 

“The PRC has no legal grounds to unilaterally impose its will on the region”

,…in a reference to the Nine-Dash Line. For the State Dept., Beijing deploys nothing but “gangster tactics” in the South China Sea.

Once again, nobody paid attention, because the actual facts on the sea are stark.

Anything that moves in the South China Sea – China’s crucial maritime trade artery – is at the mercy of the PLA, which decides if and when to deploy their deadly DF-21D and DF-26 “carrier killer” missiles.

There’s absolutely no way the US Pacific Fleet can win a shooting war in the South China Sea.

The United States has ZERO defense against these deadly missiles.

Electronically jammed

A crucial Chinese report, unavailable and not referred to by Western media, and translated by Hong Kong-based analyst Thomas Wing Polin, is essential to understand the context.

Not reported in the Western Media.

Unavailable in America.

This report is pretty much well known all over Asia, China, and Russia.

The report refers to US Growler electronic warplanes rendered totally out of control by electronic jamming devices positioned on islands and reefs in the South China Sea.

According to the report, 

“after the accident, the United States negotiated with China, demanding that China dismantle the electronic equipment immediately, but it was rejected. 

These electronic devices are an important part of China’s maritime defense and are not offensive weapons. Therefore, the US military’s request for dismantling is unreasonable.”

It gets better: 

“On the same day, former commander Scott Swift of the US Pacific Fleet finally acknowledged that the US military had lost the best time to control the South China Sea. 

He believes that China has deployed a large number of Hongqi 9 air defense missiles, H-6K bombers, and electronic jamming systems on islands and reefs. 

The defense can be said to be solid. 

If US fighter jets rush into the South China Sea, they are likely to encounter their ‘Waterloo.’”

The bottom line is that the systems – including electronic jamming – deployed by the PLA on islands and reefs in the South China Sea, covering more than half of the total surface, are considered by Beijing to be part of the national defense system.

I have previously detailed what Admiral Philip Davidson, when he was still a nominee to lead the US Pacific Command (PACOM), told the US Senate.

Here are his Top Three conclusions:

1) “China is pursuing advanced capabilities (e.g., hypersonic missiles) which the United States has no current defense against. As China pursues these advanced weapons systems, US forces across the Indo-Pacific will be placed increasingly at risk.”

2) “China is undermining the rules-based international order.”

3) “China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States.”

Implied in all of the above is the “secret” of the Indo-Pacific strategy: at best a containment exercise, as China continues to solidify the Maritime Silk Road linking the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean.

Remember the nusantao

The South China Sea is and will continue to be one of the prime geopolitical flashpoints of the young 21st century, where a great deal of the East-West balance of power will be played.

I have addressed this elsewhere in the past in some detail, but a short historical background is once again absolutely essential to understand the current juncture as the South China Sea increasingly looks and feels like a Chinese lake.

Let’s start in 1890, when Alfred Mahan, then president of the US Naval College, wrote the seminal The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, 1660-1783. Mahan’s central thesis is that the US should go global in search of new markets, and protect these new trade routes through a network of naval bases.

That is the embryo of the US Empire of Bases – which remains in effect.

It was Western – American and European – colonialism that came up with most land borders and maritime borders of states bordering the South China Sea: Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam.

We are talking about borders between different colonial possessions – and that implied intractable problems from the start, subsequently inherited by post-colonial nations.

Historically, it had always been a completely different story.

The best anthropological studies (Bill Solheim’s, for instance) define the semi-nomadic communities who really traveled and traded across the South China Sea from time immemorial as the Nusantao – an Austronesian compound word for “south island” and “people”.

The Nusantao were not a defined ethnic group. They were a maritime internet. Over centuries, they had many key hubs, from the coastline between central Vietnam and Hong Kong all the way to the Mekong Delta. They were not attached to any “state”. The Western notion of “borders” did not even exist. In the mid-1990s, I had the privilege to encounter some of their descendants in Indonesia and Vietnam.

So it was only by the late 19th century that the Westphalian system managed to freeze the South China Sea inside an immovable framework.

Which brings us to the crucial point of why China is so sensitive about its borders; because they are directly linked to the “century of humiliation” – when internal Chinese corruption and weakness allowed Western “barbarians” to take possession of Chinese land.

A Japanese lake

The Nine Dash Line is an immensely complex problem.

It was invented by the eminent Chinese geographer Bai Meichu, a fierce nationalist, in 1936, initially as part of a “Chinese National Humiliation Map” in the form of a “U-shaped line” gobbling up the South China Sea all the way down to James Shoal, which is 1,500 km south of China but only over 100 km off Borneo.

The Nine Dash Line, from the beginning, was promoted by the Chinese government – remember, at the time not yet Communist – as the letter of the law in terms of “historic” Chinese claims over islands in the South China Sea.

One year later, Japan invaded China.

Japan had occupied Taiwan way back in 1895. Japan occupied the Philippines in 1942. That meant virtually the entire coastline of the South China Sea being controlled by a single empire for the fist time in history.

The South China Sea had become a Japanese lake.

Well, that lasted only until 1945. The Japanese did occupy Woody Island in the Paracels and Itu Aba (today Taiping) in the Spratlys. After the end of WWII and the US nuclear-bombing Japan, the Philippines became independent in 1946 and the Spratlys immediately were declared Filipino territory.

In 1947, all the islands in the South China Sea got Chinese names.

And in December 1947 all the islands were placed under the control of Hainan (itself an island in southern China.) New maps duly followed, but now with Chinese names for the islands (or reefs, or shoals). But there was a huge problem: no one explained the meaning of those dashes (which were originally eleven.)

In June 1947 the Republic of China claimed everything within the line – while proclaiming itself open to negotiate definitive maritime borders with other nations later on. But, for the moment, there were no borders.

And that set the scene for the immensely complicated “strategic ambiguity” of the South China Sea that still lingers on – and allows the State Dept. to accuse Beijing of “gangster tactics”. The culmination of a millennia-old transition from the “maritime internet” of semi-nomadic peoples to the Westphalian system spelled nothing but trouble.

Time for COC

So what about the US notion of “freedom of navigation”?

In imperial terms, “freedom of navigation”, from the West Coast of the US to Asia – through the Pacific, the South China Sea, the Malacca Strait and the Indian Ocean – is strictly an issue of military strategy.

The US Navy simply cannot imagine dealing with maritime exclusion zones – or having to demand an “authorization” every time they need to cross them. In this case the Empire of Bases would lose “access” to its own bases.

This is compounded with trademark Pentagon paranoia, gaming a situation where a “hostile power” – namely China – decides to block global trade. The premise in itself is ludicrous, because the South China Sea is the premier, vital maritime artery for China’s globalized economy.

The FON program

So there’s no rational justification for a Freedom of Navigation (FON) program. For all practical purposes, these aircraft carriers like the Ronald Reagan and the Nimitz showboating on and off in the South China Sea amount to 21st century gunboat diplomacy.

And Beijing is not impressed.

The ASEAN nations have things to say about all this…

As far as the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is concerned, what matters now is to come up with a Code of Conduct (COC) to solve all maritime conflicts between Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and China.

Next year, ASEAN and China celebrate 30 years of strong bilateral relations.

There’s a strong possibility they will be upgraded to “comprehensive strategic partner” status.

Because of Covid-19, all players had to postpone negotiations on the second reading of the single draft of COC. Beijing wanted these to be face to face – because the document is ultra-sensitive and for the moment, secret. Yet they finally agreed to negotiate online – via detailed texts.

It will be a hard slog, because as ASEAN made it clear in a virtual summit in late June, everything has to be in accordance with international law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS).

Mid 2021

If they can all agree on a COC by the end of 2020, a final agreement could be approved by ASEAN in mid-2021. Historic does not even begin to describe it – because this negotiation has been going on for no less than two decades.

Not to mention that a COC invalidates any US pretension to secure “freedom of navigation” in an area where navigation is already free.

Yet “freedom” was never the issue.

In imperial terminology, “freedom” means that China must obey and keep the South China Sea open to the US Navy.

Well, that’s possible, but you gotta behave.

That’ll be the day when the US Navy is “denied” the South China Sea.

You don’t need to be Mahan to know that’ll mean the imperial end of America ruling the seven seas.

Conclusion

So when you look into the issues deeper, you discover that the American military presence near China is more than just trying to put pressure on China, and influence trade. If America does not seize any islands NOW, or disrupt commerce NOW, then by 2021, the United States Navy might be forever limited in action in this region.

This limitation on military movements would be unacceptable to the Neocons currently occupying the White House.

And that is exactly why the United States has an ENORMOUS assault / invasion flotilla off the China coast in the South China Sea.

Do you want more?

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You’ll not find any big banners or popups here talking about cookies and privacy notices. There are no ads on this site (aside from the hosting ads – a necessary evil). Functionally and fundamentally, I just don’t make money off of this blog. It is NOT monetized. Finally, I don’t track you because I just don’t care to.

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How to tar and feather a corrupt government official.

This is part of my SHTF – Practical skills posts. Most of what I post (in this section) are lost skills; skills that Americans have forgotten though the centuries of disuse. So, now, as the fourth turning is rapidly approaching, these skills need to be dusted off and updated to fit the modern American lifestyle. Here we discuss the practical methods of “tar and feathering” corrupt officials, progressive Marxists, aggressive social justice warriors, Wall street bankers and members of the elite oligarchy.

It’s a discussion that’s long overdue.

Other posts in this series include;

Important note

This is not written for historical interest, or in some kind of jest.

These are serious issues and should not be taken trivially. We can only hope that things do not ever get to the point where humans are seriously contemplating these kinds of actions. Let’s hope and pray that we all never have to deal with these matters.

We, as Americans have been (for the most part) isolated from them. America has lived a life of relative calmness and tranquility for the vast bulk of population. We erroneously believe that it will always stay that way and never change.

At worst, we somehow imagine climbing up on a hilltop near our home and shooting police as they approach our “stomping grounds”. Those thoughts are all fantasies. We are not talking about those childish dreams. We are talking about real issues that mean death and destruction. We imagine something out of a television series, or a movie. We cannot imagine what really happens during periods of societal reset.

We’ve been isolated and insulated from that harshness.

Meanwhile the rest of the world confronts these kinds of issues with far greater frequency than we are aware of…

Tar and feathering in contemporaneous Africa.
Tar and feathering in contemporaneous Africa. This was in 2019.

I argue that the United States is going to go through a barbaric time, and it will be on par with the rest of the world. This reality is something that Americans have no concept of. We just cannot imagine it.

It’s a horror.

So buckle up and get ready. If you find yourself trapped within an area of conflict, such as Virginia, then be advised. Wars do not play by the Geneva Conventions, or Papal Decree. They are nasty, nasty affairs.

There are events where you would have a high 70% probability of one member of your family being killed or maimed in the process. War is very ugly. Loved ones, family die.

War is very ugly. Loved ones, family die.
FILE – In this Friday, Nov. 18, 1994 file photo, seven year old Nermin Divovic lies mortally wounded in a pool of blood as unidentified U.S and British U.N. firefighters arrive to assist after he was shot in the head in Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina. More than 20 years after Bosnia’s war, Radovan Karadzic will learn his fate on Thursday when U.N. judges deliver verdicts in his genocide and war crimes trial. (AP Photo/Enric Marti, File)

Cliff Notes

Note, if the worst does indeed come to past, keep these points in mind…

  • You can never win a Defensive war. Do not “fortify” your territory to try to defend it.
  • You fight on the turf and territory of the enemy, on your terms.
  • You always spend most of your resources going after the enemy leadership, their confederate instigators and enablers. You hunt them out, you target their friends and family. You flush them out of hiding, you capture them and you apply horrors to them Genghis Khan style.
  • To be fully effective in war, you need to create horror. Real wars are not tea and biscuits. It’s an ugly, ugly business where objectives must be realized with finality and horror.

Introduction

At a Dec. 3 2019 meeting of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, U.S. Marine Corps Reservist Maj. Ben Joseph Woods addressed the board and admonished Commonwealth of Virginia lawmakers for their plans to pass sweeping gun laws after they gained the majority in 2020. 

The Democrats in the Virginia House are poised to impose controversial,  and likely unconstitutional, gun laws in that state, including a program  to register firearms.  Gun registration has historically been the first step in confiscation by extremis regimes worldwide. It also is a prelude to wide scale genocide.

As Maj. Woods addressed the meeting, he spoke of his time in the military and federal law enforcement and what he feared politicians were doing to the state: 

“I’m not going to address the bills themselves. What I would like to  address is the fact that at this point, so many people believe that  these are unconstitutional or draconian that as of last night, 30  counties in this state which have voted themselves…to be Second Amendment sanctuary counties.

The ugly truth of our situation is that is just scratching the  surface of what is happening…I work plainclothes law enforcement…I walk  around without a uniform, people don’t see my badge, people don’t see my  gun, and I can tell you: 

People are angry.

And I am frightened to the point that I am looking at moving my wife  and child…out of this state if these bills pass. The reason is because  my fellow law enforcement officers…

Tell me that they would not enforce these bills regardless of  whether they believe in them ideologically because they believe that there are so many people angry in gun shops, gun shows, at bars, we have heard it now, people talking about tar and feathering politicians in a less than joking manner…

That is a terrifying prospect and I have never seen people willing  to speak about something like that publicly…As a law enforcement  officer, I empathize with concerns people have over gun violence.” 

...

“The legal precedent we would set by allowing the legislature to  selectively ignore enumerated rights at will is the same mindset that  150 years ago let this country into a civil war.”

The progressive Marxists don’t even bother trying to follow the Constitution. They no longer try, nor do they even bother to pretend. They know, after decades of getting away with crimes, that they can continue to do so without consequence. Thus, they are going to pass unconstitutional laws and expect everyone to obey them. No matter what.

They write the laws and you obey. This is classic tyranny.

This is not acceptable to the vast majority of law-abiding citizens in the state of Virginia. And as such, they are openly considering invoking the anti-tyranny measures inherent in the second amendment to the Bill of Rights.

So, with the understanding that large numbers of extremely pissed-off conservatives are openly discussing [1] capturing, [2] torturing, [3] tar and feathering, and [4] lynching the politicians in Virginia, it might be a good time to discuss the practical fundamentals of a punishment method known as “tar and feathering”.

Discussion of the “ugly side” of things.

This is a truly distasteful post.

It discusses torture as a form of punishment. This is Genghis Khan type of stuff, and not for the uninitiated. For the record… I do not like writing about this.

No Such Thing as Limited War
 
Shall we go one step further?  We're now watching the smoke rising over what amounts to a small-scale battlefield between the Virginia National Guard and the sheriffs and deputies of one or more counties along with however many gun rights advocates stream in from adjacent states to augment the flash mob.  

Unlike the slaughter of 1861, this will be broadcast live and in living color.
 
Of course, the National Guard has tanks and most sheriffs don't.  Odds are, they'll win, but only by slaughtering large numbers of Trump voters - and yes, obviously, it will be Trump voters lying dead at the hands of, ultimately, Mr. Trump's political enemies.
 
What would the President do?  

Well, what could and should the President do?  Legally, he can nationalize the National Guard and order them to stand down, but by that time the Guard officers who might have obeyed his orders to stand down would have long since resigned.
 
He could order in the regular army.  

Now we have a battle between two trained, equipped armies - yes, literally, that is a Civil War by definition, assuming the regular army was willing to obey such an order and fire on their colleagues.
 
Would other governors stand idly by?  

Dare we imagine what Congress would do?  Might there be a 25th Amendment coup, as the media and the bureaucracy have been agitating for since before Mr. Trump took office?  How would the half of the country that voted for Mr. Trump respond to that?  Don't forget that Trump would either be in the midst of running for re-election, or recently re-elected to office.
 
Or, he could just suck it up and let the Democrat National Guard destroy "his" people and the Constitution by force.  This, too, has happened before.  Paul Hindenburg, while President of Germany, let Nazi stormtroopers effectively take control of the country and suppress opposing voters and politicians until, in short order, Germany was a Nazi one-party state.
 
Does this sort of passive compliance seem characteristic of what we've seen of Donald J. Trump thus far?  Let's just say it doesn't seem yuuuuugely likely that he'd let his supporters be gunned down without doing something about it. 
 
Beyond this point, there are far too many unknowns to make any sort of solid predictions.  Wars never go the way people who start them intend, and the end result is almost always something nobody predicted and few wanted at the beginning.  

Novelists could write any number of vaguely plausible scenarios, and we'll leave that job to them. 

 - Virginia's Rampup to Civil War

I argue that it’s going to get ugly. Very, very ugly. It will be a horror of unimaginable magnitude, and most people will have a difficult time coming to terms with it.

You all shouldn’t.

Instead, you should read a history book or two. This is what always happens. It’s never pretty.

The Siege Of Sarajevo.
The Siege Of Sarajevo. One can well imagine a similar situation in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Framington, and Tampa.

History

Tarring and feathering is a form of punishment which was developed in 12th century England. It spread across feudal Europe, and was also practiced in many European colonies, once Europeans began exploring and colonizing the globe. In this punishment, the victim was stripped, painted with hot tar, and then covered in feathers which stuck to the tar.

They were then released running about and flailing their arms in pain. They would look like some kind of demented crazed bird, running around all over the streets in circles.

The primarily goal of this was physical intimidation and humiliation, with people being tarred and feathered in an attempt to run them out of town. The term “tarred with the same brush” in reference to guilt by association appears to be derived from this practice.

This practice appears to have been practiced primarily among mobs and vigilantes, rather than being an officially sanctioned form of punishment.

Depending on the temperature of the tar and the attitude of the crowd, it could sometimes become quite violent and rather dangerous. Hot tar could cause significant burns, and removing the tar would pull out hair and pieces of skin, potentially putting the victim at risk of infection. Theoretically, covering the skin in tar would also prevent it from breathing, potentially causing death.

However, the goal of tarring and feathering was humiliation, not death, and not many deaths as a result of this practice have been recorded.

More commonly, people were scarred for life by the hot tar and resulting injuries from removal, marking them to other members of the community as victims.

People also died as a result of lynchings, in which they were tarred and feathered, marched around town, and then hung.

Tar and feathering is often used as humiliation prior to being lynched in the town square.

Several variations on tarring and feathering have been recorded. In the British military, for example, people once practiced pitchcapping, in which a soldier’s head would be covered with hot tar.

Removing the tar involved being willing to lose much of your hair and scalp along with the tar, leaving ugly scars. Sometimes the bodies of people who had been hung or beheaded were also tarred and feathered, to add humiliation, and to hold the bodies together when they were hung on the gibbet as a warning for other citizens.

Many people associate tarring and feathering with the American West, where the practice endured until a surprisingly late date, with recorded instances dating to the 1900s.

In fact, people were tarred and feathered recently enough for there to be photographic examples of tarring and feathering, in which streaks of tar and feathers can be clearly seen, suggesting that the practice involved less of a careful painting of the body, and more of a streaking with lines of hot tar.

Fundamentals

The goal of tarring and feathering was humiliation, not death, and not many deaths as a result of this practice have been recorded. More commonly, people were scarred for life by the hot tar and resulting injuries from removal, marking them to other members of the community as victims.
The goal of tarring and feathering was humiliation, not death, and not many deaths as a result of this practice have been recorded. More commonly, people were scarred for life by the hot tar and resulting injuries from removal, marking them to other members of the community as victims.

To conduct a “tar and feathering” punishment, the two (primary) ingredients are [1] Tar and [2] feathers. These used to be quite common back in the day, as all bedding, pillows and insulation used feathers. Today, feathers are relatively difficult to obtain and you need to procure them in advance. Additionally, you need to produce a container, or caldron to cook the tar to boiling, and a heat source.

You need a rack or device to securely bind the victim to. Do not expect to hold him / her steady while applying the tar. They will be very difficult to manage.

You need to strip, and bind the victim on a metal or wooden frame.

Substitutes

You can substitute other materials in the event that you are unable to produce tar or feathers. For instance, maple syrup, glue, water proof sealants for mobile homes, coal-tar epoxy and Lacquer might be considered suitable materials. Just make sure that the tar substitute is well heated to a temperature that would generate painful first-degree burns.

Tar

Ordinary roofing tar can be procured at any hardware store and DIY chain. Make sure that you follow the heating instructions and make sure that you do not detonate the tar over a fire.

Expert tip; Watch for the flash point.

Typically, you can pour the tar into a large 55 gallon drum that is sitting over an open fire. Then, using ladles, you can pour the tar over the victim.

Henry brand roofing tar.
Henry brand roofing tar.

Other techniques with the tar include simply heating the metal bucket that the tar comes in over a fire, or a propane stove.

Application

When applying the tar, you can either pour it over the victim or brush it on. Make sure that the victim is nude. They must be fully nude for a proper tar and feathering. Also, they must be bound securely. You can use handcuffs or wire ties. Just make sure that they are securely bound. A well welded frame with attachment points for the wore ties works best.

The idea is to fully cover the victim from head to toe with hot scalding tar. The victim must be fully bound for this to happen, and you must be very thorough in the application. No area of skin can be ignored.

Then you can apply the “feathers”.

Tar and feathers and being rode out of town on a rail.
Tar and feathers and being rode out of town on a rail.

Feathers

Feathers are rather difficult to come by in the quantities necessary for a decent tar and feathering. Sources of feathers are down coats and jackets, and bedding. You can also go to poultry farms such as chicken and geese and collect the dander and feathers there.

If gathering feathers are problematic, you can certainly use commonly available substitutes. Here are some suggestions…

  • Used cat litter.
  • Styrofoam peanuts.
  • Dryer lint (you need to collect enough of it).
  • Broken glass bottle fragments.
  • Cut hair (from a barbershop).

Alternatives

Let’s see what the Marxists do when they take power…

Necklacing is a preferred method of torture and execution under the Marxists in Africa.
Necklacing is a preferred method of torture and execution under the Marxists in South Africa.

In South Africa, the Marxists implement a similar kind of punishment. They only problem is that the victim tends to die, instead of being maimed for life. It’s known as “necklacing” and the survivors are scarred for life. It’s really nasty.

In South Africa, the Marxists implement a similar kind of punishment. They only problem is that the victim tends to die, instead of being maimed for life. It's known as "necklacing" and the survivors are scarred for life. It's really nasty.
In South Africa, the Marxists implement a similar kind of punishment. They only problem is that the victim tends to die, instead of being maimed for life. It’s known as “necklacing” and the survivors are scarred for life. It’s really nasty.

They would take a tire and put it around the neck of a victim. Then they would chain it in place, place a highly flammable liquid in the tire well, and set it on fire. It’s a horrible way to die.

Necklacing was the primary form of torture under Nelson Mandela in South Africa.
Necklacing was the primary form of torture under Nelson Mandela in South Africa.

It’s more work, but far easier to procure and implement.

It’s coming. That’s for certain.

Here’s a quote from one of my “must see” blogs called Busted Knuckles. He’s a word-smith that can say things far better than I can. Listen up!

Here’s just a highlight of a most excellent commentary…

 Who the hell knows what is going on for sure?

 Being the Realist I am, Rose scented Unicorn farts and Magic Rainbows don’t enter my world view.

 Then we have Virginia.

 Every truly patriotic American is watching that like a hawk.
 The very real possibility of another Shot Heard Around The World is but one stupid mistake away from becoming a reality.

 A lot of people have decisions to make.

 On both sides of that whole scenario.

 Everyone has their own personal convictions and I most certainly have mine.

 I am hoping against hope that we have turned a corner at this point in time.

 We as in the kind of people who think like I do.

 There are a lot more of us than the media would lead you to believe.

 A vast majority as a matter of fact.

 It’s time we started acting like one.

 Push back.

 Come together as a united front against these Socialists.

 Spicy Time is coming, get ready for it, the party is about to start.

Conclusion

The images are horrible, right?

You want to avoid all this, right?

You want to live a calm and peaceful life where your families can live in peace and harmony… right?

This horror is what happens when bad, evil and dangerous people are permitted to come to power, change the world around them, subvert the law, and rule over others. Once they gain control of your weapons of defense, it’s all over.

Climb into the boxcars.

Game over!

Game over, man. Game Over!
Game over, man. Game Over!

Human nature is predictable.

Those progressive Marxists believe in a stable life where they are always in control and that the systems that they have put in place can overwhelm the most basic of human emotions. They believe that through incremental steps, over a long time, their (long desired) changes to the American State and Federal Constitutions would be accepted without incident.

They believe that change is gradual. Conservatives believe that change in an on/off switch from acceptable to unacceptable.

Can you blame them? It’s been this way for at least 100 years if not longer.

But, they are wrong.

If the National Guard gets involved, it is not merely imaginable but inevitable that a televised bloodbath would ensue.  

What will happen when National Guard units encounter the county sheriff in uniform, backed up by a throng of deputized, armed citizens, many of whom are former military who took a solemn oath to defend the Constitution with their lives, their liberty, and their sacred honor?  What would happen when they start breaking down doors and confiscating guns?
 
It is inconceivable that the defenders of the Second Amendment would peacefully back down - that's the whole point of the Second Amendment, after all - and thus far, Democratic rhetoric doesn't seem to leave much room for backing down either. 

- Virginia's Rampup to Civil War

Rage, anger, disgust, fury and horror are real emotions that no amount of Prozac can suppress. It’s been pent up for decades, and it’s gonna blow.

In the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina, conflict between the three main ethnic groups, the Serbs, Croats, and Muslims, resulted in genocide committed by the Serbs against the Muslims in Bosnia. Bosnia is one of several small countries that emerged from the break-up of Yugoslavia, a multicultural country created after World War I by the victorious Western Allies. Yugoslavia was composed of ethnic and religious groups that had been historical rivals, even bitter enemies, including the Serbs (Orthodox Christians), Croats (Catholics) and ethnic Albanians (Muslims).
In the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina, conflict between the three main ethnic groups, the Serbs, Croats, and Muslims, resulted in genocide committed by the Serbs against the Muslims in Bosnia. Bosnia is one of several small countries that emerged from the break-up of Yugoslavia, a multicultural country created after World War I by the victorious Western Allies. Yugoslavia was composed of ethnic and religious groups that had been historical rivals, even bitter enemies, including the Serbs (Orthodox Christians), Croats (Catholics) and ethnic Albanians (Muslims).

The objects of this anger should consider themselves lucky to be killed off humanely. A shot to the head, a lynching, burning down a union hall with the radicalized members all trapped inside…

Quick, easy death.

More often than not, however, it looks like extreme forms of torture are going to be the norm. It’s gonna be truly horrific. And if you are on the side “balancing the equation” back to Constitutional law as opposed to progressive Marxism, you had best know how to torture properly.

Let’s pray that the Marxists stand down and give up their assault on America. Because “Sunset” is coming and it’s going to be spectacular in it’s ferocity.

How do we know?

Read your history.

An archaeological team in France has unearthed a Gallo-Roman necropolis in Saintes, France, in which the remains of a group of adults and a child were found with iron shackles around their wrists, ankles, and/or necks. Archaeologists are trying to unravel the story of these individuals’ lives, their origin, and the circumstances of their death.
An archaeological team in France has unearthed a Gallo-Roman necropolis in Saintes, France, in which the remains of a group of adults and a child were found with iron shackles around their wrists, ankles, and/or necks. Archaeologists are trying to unravel the story of these individuals’ lives, their origin, and the circumstances of their death.

I so pray that we all can avoid this fate.

Final comment

Where are all those activist judges? You know the ones that are putting everything that President Trump does on hold. Why aren’t they issuing injunctions on these blatant anti-Constitutional actions?

Maybe its’ because the country is too far gone to matter.

I have other posts on this subject matter. You can check out my SHTF index here…

SHTF Articles

Articles & Links

You’ll not find any big banners or popups here talking about cookies and privacy notices. There are no ads on this site (aside from the hosting ads – a necessary evil). Functionally and fundamentally, I just don’t make money off of this blog. It is NOT monetized. Finally, I don’t track you because I just don’t care to.

  • You can start reading the articles by going HERE.
  • You can visit the Index Page HERE to explore by article subject.
  • You can also ask the author some questions. You can go HERE to find out how to go about this.
  • You can find out more about the author HERE.
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Be the Rufus. More stories of personal heroism.

This post describes some stories of personal heroism. Included are some micro-videos that depict some acts of heroism. I personally believe that inside all us, we all can be a hero. We just need to take on the mantle when needed and go forth and do what is necessary.

Please kindly note that this post has multiple embedded videos. It is important to view them. If they fail to load, all you need to do is to reload your browser.

Emergency in route to the hospital.

Sometimes it’s part of our job. Like when you are a hospital worker like a doctor or a nurse. Sometimes it isn’t. You are just an innocent bystander minding your own business. But when you are called, what are you going to do?

Neighbors

Sometimes it’s just you and a neighbor down the street is in crisis. You need to go out and forth and help them out. Ar you up for it? Can you lend a hand to the best of your ability. Or will you try to cover your face so you can ignore the problem like a coward.

You get friends and you all work together. You help. You do what ever is necessary. Be a man!

You alone

Sometimes you are alone. No one is there to help you out. You are on your own. What are you going to do? Seconds matter. Are you going to wait on the sidelines. What would you do?

Notice the others, totally oblivious to what is transpiring next to them.

Rescue a person in distress

You are at a train station, or a stop. You check you phone and are waiting for the train to pull in, when you see someone crawl onto the tracks to kill themselves. What are you going to do? Let them die? Or are you going to risk your own life to save theirs? Be the Rufus.

Notice the others. Too little. Too late.

Baby fallen into the icy cold water

What will you do if you see a baby in icy cold water in January? Would you pull out your phone and call the police, or dive right on it and save the kid? A hero would stop thinking and risk his own life to save the baby.

Notice the others milling around with their hands in their pockets. Useless.

Posts Regarding Life and Contentment

Here are some other similar posts on this venue. If you enjoyed this post, you might like these posts as well. These posts tend to discuss growing up in America. Often, I like to compare my life in America with the society within communist China. As there are some really stark differences between the two.

Mongolian Women under Genghis Khan
What is going on in Hollywood?
Why no High-Speed rail in the USA?
Link
Link
Link
End of the Day Potato
Dog Shit
Tomatos
Link
Mad scientist
Gorilla Cage in the basement
The two family types and how they work.
How to manage a family household.
Link
The most popular American foods.
Soups, Sandwiches and ice cold beer.
Pleasures
Work in the 1960's
School in the 1970s
Cat Heaven
Corporate life
Corporate life - part 2
Build up your life
Grow and play - 1
Grow and play - 2
Baby's got back
Link
A womanly vanity
Army and Navy Store
Playground Comparisons
Excuses that we use that keep us enslaved.

More Posts about Life

I have broken apart some other posts. They can best be classified about ones actions as they contribute to happiness and life. They are a little different, in subtle ways.

Being older
Things I wish I knew.
Asian Nazi Chic
Link
Travel
PT-141
Bronco Billy
How they get away with it
Paper Airplanes
Snopes
Link
Link
Link
Link
Link
Link
Link
Link
1960's and 1970's link
The Confederados
Democracy Lessons
The Rule of Eight

Funny Pictures

Picture Dump 1

Be the Rufus – Tales of Everyday Heroism.

Be the Rufus - 1

Articles & Links

You’ll not find any big banners or popups here talking about cookies and privacy notices. There are no ads on this site (aside from the hosting ads – a necessary evil). Functionally and fundamentally, I just don’t make money off of this blog. It is NOT monetized. Finally, I don’t track you because I just don’t care to.

  • You can start reading the articles by going HERE.
  • You can visit the Index Page HERE to explore by article subject.
  • You can also ask the author some questions. You can go HERE to find out how to go about this.
  • You can find out more about the author HERE.
  • If you have concerns or complaints, you can go HERE.
  • If you want to make a donation, you can go HERE.