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Wonderful - this feels like a positive shift towards that multipolar future. I wonder what USA and its allies will do to fuck shit up again.
Posted by: irish al | Mar 10 2023 15:08 utc | 15
Big news going on with China and the Middle East. It’s a time of celebration and expectations for a great and glorious future.
Not well reported on American “media”, of course… It’s a blurb on “page 8”. LOL
2023 03 11 09 04
Let’s dance!
A Classic 70’s TV Show Dance Party
Mediated By China Iran And Saudi Arabia Restore Ties – There Are Winners And Losers
Archrivals Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed Friday to restore diplomatic relations, a dramatic breakthrough brokered by China after years of soaring tensions between the regional rivals.
The deal, which will see the two countries reopen embassies in each other’s capitals, was sealed during a meeting in China — a boost to Beijing’s efforts to rival the United States as a broker on the global stage.
The agreement also may put a dampener Israel's ongoing efforts to normalize relations with its Arab neighbors.
The talks were held because of a “shared desire to resolve the disagreements between them through dialogue and diplomacy, and in light of their brotherly ties,” according to a joint communique from Tehran, Riyadh and Beijing that was published by the Saudi Press Agency, the country’s official news agency.
The agreement followed intensive negotiations between Ali Shamkhani, a close adviser to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni, and Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State Musaad bin Mohammed Al-Aiban, according to the statement.
It added that the foreign ministers from both countries would “meet to implement this, arrange for the return of their ambassadors, and discuss means of enhancing bilateral relations.”
The joint statement by Saudi Arabia, Iran and China is here:
In response to the noble initiative of His Excellency President Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China, of China’s support for developing good neighborly relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran;
And based on the agreement between His Excellency President Xi Jinping and the leaderships in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, whereby the People’s Republic of China would host and sponsor talks between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran;
Proceeding from their shared desire to resolve the disagreements between them through dialogue and diplomacy, and in light of their brotherly ties; ...
Congrats to China for nudging this deal forward and making it possible.
There are winners and losers in this.
The winners are:
Iran, which will now be even more able to break through the sanctions wall the U.S. has put up around it.
Saudi Arabia, which now will likely be able to end its disastrous and costly war on Yemen.
China, for outplaying the U.S. State Department by achieving this.
Iraq, Syria, Yemen as they will become more peaceful as the two middle powers influencing policies on their grounds end their rivalry.
The losers are:
Israel, because the chances for its attempts to get the U.S. into a war with Iran are now diminished. Its hoped for coalition with the Saudis will not come into being.
The United States for having been outplayed on its traditional ‘home grounds’ in the Middle East.
Anti-Iran hawks everywhere.
The Emirates for losing at least some of the sanction busting trade with Iran to Saudi Arabia.
Tensions between Sunni Muslim powerhouse Saudi Arabia and Iran, which is majority Shiite, have dominated the region for decades.
The two countries have been locked in an intensifying struggle for dominance, their rivalry exacerbated by proxy conflicts, including the war in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam and the site of its two holiest cities, has historically seen itself as the leader of the Muslim world. The Iranian Revolution of 1979 shook Saudi Arabia and other Gulf kingdoms, which saw the regime in Tehran as a rival.
While tensions brewed for years, Saudi Arabia broke off ties in 2016 after protesters stormed Saudi diplomatic posts in Iran and set fire to the embassy in Tehran.
Days earlier, Saudi Arabia had executed the prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.
“Clearing up the misunderstandings and looking to the future in Tehran-Riyadh relations will definitely lead to the development of regional stability and security and the increase of cooperation between the countries of the Persian Gulf and the Islamic world to manage the existing challenges,” Shamkhani said Friday after signing the deal, according to Press TV.
In 2016 I describe the killing of Nimr al-Nimr as a smart move in the sense of Saudi domestic realpolitik. But I also said that it would lead to escalating costs in Saudi Arabia’s regional policies, predominantly in Yemen. That indeed proved to be the case.
Reviving relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran will make a lot of new things possible.
That Iran and Saudi Arabia accepted China’s mediation is a recognition of Beijing’s new standing in world policies. That alone is enough reason for the White House to hate the deal.
Posted by b on March 10, 2023 at 14:17 UTC | Permalink
People are noticing
Probably sound like a broken record, yet the pace of events & consequential change over the past twelve months is astounding. The closest I lived through in rapt attention would be GDR inadvertently nullifying the Berlin Wall/Border controls & all that promptly followed on like an avalanche.
Appears, even so, to be picking up steam now with China becoming an open active player ... 'interesting times' indeed.
Grins, of the Cheshire kind. :)) Peace. Still Steel
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 10 2023 16:14 utc | 41
Dad Builds Incredible Tree House In His Garden For Kids For Just $150
1 42
Dad Joe Rackley has created something truly special for his two daughters after building them an incredible greenhouse during lockdown.
Joe, from Watford (Hertfordshire, England), started the project on April 1, so they would have a place to play while schools were closed. And it’s fair to say the 43-year old succeeded – with his three-year-old daughter describing it as “heaven”. Perhaps more impressively, TV and film prop maker pulled it all off for just £120 (US$150) – and the first step was finding wood.
“Went foraging for pallets last week,” Joe posted on his Instagram on March 31. “Tabi is gonna get a free wood Wendy house!”
The Biden, Obama, Clinton, Nuland, Powers axis has absolutely FUBARed US foreign policy and national security. Even worse, the toxic rhetoric to demonize Trump voting conservatives has been so alienating that the same folks that marched off to war to avenge the 9-11 attacks are now praying for a nuclear 9-11.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Mar 10 2023 16:24 utc | 42
Cheesy Lasagna Soup
Lasagna in a bowl, chock full of what you love in regular lasagna, with the added ‘Florentine’ touch of spinach!
Cheesy Lasagna Soup Bowl2 768×1152 1
Ingredients
1 pound bulk sweet (mild) Italian sausage
1 yellow onion, thinly sliced
2 garlic cloves, minced
1/4 teaspoon red chile flakes (optional)
1 (28 ounce) can crushed tomatoes
4 cups (32 ounces) chicken stock
1 to 2 cups water
8 ounces lasagna noodles (not no-boil), broken into 1 to 2 inch pieces
1/4 cup fresh basil leaves, plus additional for serving
1/2 cup (2 ounces) Wisconsin parmesan cheese, shredded
Instructions
Heat Dutch oven or large pot over high heat. Brown sausage for 5 minutes, breaking up as it cooks.
Add onions; cook for 3 to 4 minutes, until onions are softened and sausage is cooked through.
Add garlic and red chile flakes; cook for 1 minute.
Add crushed tomatoes, scraping bottom of pan with wooden spoon.
Add stock, 1 cup water, lasagna noodles, basil and pepper. Bring to boil.
Reduce heat to medium-high; cook at a gentle boil for 10 to 12 minutes, until noodles are cooked through, stirring occasionally to prevent noodles from sticking to pot.
Stir in spinach. Add salt to taste. If soup is too thick, add additional 1 cup water. Remove from heat.
To serve, divide mozzarella among 6 serving bowls. Ladle soup over cheese. Top with spoonsful of ricotta, parmesan and additional basil.
People are noticing
Touch any Saudi assets and the petrodollar explodes into flames and dies as it will turn to yuan and other currencies, plus the Saudis can reciprocate against dollar assets.
Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 10 2023 16:59 utc | 57
Soul Train Line Let It Whip – Dazz Band
The Japanese Mini Truck Garden Contest Is A Whole New Genre In Landscaping
1 22
The Kei Truck, or kei-tora for short, is a tiny but practical vehicle that originated in Japan. Although these days it’s widely used throughout Asia and other parts of the world, in Japan you’ll often see them used in the construction and agriculture industries as they can maneuver through small side streets and easily park. And in a more recent turn of events, apparently they’re also used as a canvas for gardening contests.
The Kei Truck Garden Contest is an annual event sponsored by the Japan Federation of Landscape Contractors. Numerous landscaping contractors from around Japan participate by arriving on site with their mini trucks and then spending several hours transforming the cargo bed into a garden
First time ever I agree with anti-Iran lobbyist Mark Dubowitz:
Saudi Arabia and Iran Agree to Re-establish Ties in Talks Hosted by ChinaMark Dubowitz, the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based research institute, described the renewed Iran-Saudi ties resulting from Chinese mediation as “a lose, lose, lose for American interests.”
Posted by: b | Mar 10 2023 17:16 utc | 64
Sweet Red Pepper and Crab Bisque
The addition of red bell pepper adds color and flavor to the traditional smooth richness of bisque. Serve this soup with brunch or as a main course, with green salad and crusty bread. You can make the bisque up to two days ahead; cover and refrigerate it after pureeing.
8fe741759592ec0c30c6905b93146604
Ingredients
2 tablespoons butter
1 cup finely chopped onion
1 cup chopped celery
1 cup chopped red bell pepper
1 1/4 teaspoons Old Bay or other seafood spice blend
3 cups fish stock or bottled clam juice
1/2 cup diced peeled russet potato
1/2 cup Half-and-Half or skim evaporated milk
1 pound crabmeat
Instructions
Melt butter in heavy medium saucepan over low heat. Add onion, celery, bell pepper, and seasoning. Cover; cook 10 minutes, stirring twice.
Add stock and potato; bring to a boil. Reduce heat, cover partially, and simmer until potato is very tender, about 30 minutes.
Working in batches, puree soup in blender. Return soup to saucepan. Add Half-and-Half; bring to a simmer. Mix in crab. Season to taste. Cover; let stand 1 minute.
Ladle into bowls.
People are noticing
I don’t know, for the first time in 25 years I have the feeling this dystopian, neoliberal, globalist nightmare “Pax Americana” is coming to an end. Now I’m imagining Neocons in whatever dark place they come from, stripped of power, laughing maniacally and ranting with nobody listening. I suppose the decaying body is still capable to lash out and cause hurt, but the beast is getting given plenty of good whacks.
Posted by: Bristolian | Mar 10 2023 18:53 utc | 87
HUGE China brokered deal, Iran & Saudi Arabia restore diplomatic ties
Not reported that way in the West, eh? But, yeah. That’s exactly what has happened.
This article is VERY IMPORTANT.
I am configuring it using my MM "huge smorgasbord technique". Thus, it includes food, girls, and other things. It's fun, interesting, and it absolutely stops Trolls and 'Bots. You will find these little green comment boxes throughout the article, and I welcome you all to comment using them. Because if you wait until the end of the article, you will have forgotten much of the various, diverse content provided.
The comment boxes look like this...
…
Warning: A lot of videos here. To watch them either reload the embedded video (most are under one minute long) or click on the link above the video. They are well worth the time to watch.
I came across this excellent TASS article summarizing the 4 February 2022 Russia/China Joint Declaration. It’s a helpful reminder, on just how far-reaching the Declaration is and the principles it’s based upon.
These are some the many, many key paragraphs, although there are more:
"This declaration formalizes the de facto established union of Russia and China. We have been talking a great deal about strategic interaction. This is a real embodiment of this interaction," Maslov said.
Given the rejection by the West of everything Russian and Chinese, it actually seems probable that the Declaration went unread by American “high officials”, meaning Blinken, Austin and Sullivan, since they already had formalized their escalation plans.
The American “leadership” are still following their check-lists and scripts.
But the reality is something very different. Russia and China have unified. They are as one singular nation, and they coordinate as one singular nation.
It’s not just a treaty. It is the de facto union of Russia and China together.
It is the formation of a new POWER BLOCK.
It is equivalent to when the 13 American states formed the “United States” of America in 1776. It is equivalent to when the European Union was formed, and NATO was created. It is really, really BIG news.
Yet…
The entire West is pretending, or unaware, of the reality. They still are treating Asia as separate nations. They think there’s Russia. They deal deal with Russia. Then once dealt with, they “pivot” to China. Then they deal with China. Then once, Russia and China are done with, they take on India. Then, once India is finished, the “mop up” with Iran.
That’s the plan.
And it relies on a world that does not exist any longer.
Let’s look at how important this unification of Asia is. We will do so through the lens of history.
The formation of the United States
The 13 colonies were the group of colonies that rebelled against Great Britain, fought in the Revolutionary War, and founded the United States of America. Here’s the 13 colonies list:
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Maryland
Massachusetts Bay
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Virginia
In late 1774, a group of Patriot leaders at the Continental Congress meeting set up their own government to resist Great Britain, and, on April 19, 1775, the first battles of the Revolutionary War were fought at Lexington and Concord. During the war, each of the 13 colonies formed a Provincial Congress to lead them, now that they no longer accepted the laws of Great Britain.
On July 4, 1776, the thirteen colonies declared themselves free and independent states at the Second Continental Congress by signing the Declaration of Independence. This document unified the thirteen colonies into one nation known as “The United States of America”.
In many ways, this is exactly what has just occurred in Asia.
There are two nations;
Russia
China
On February 4, 2022, a very signifigant document was signed that unified the two nations into one solid singular nation. The treaty and agreements are tighter and stronger, and more substantive that the US Constitution that binds the United States together. The agreement if far stronger than the EU that bonds Europe together. It is a new kind of agreement. Better. Stronger. More detailed, than anything ever seen on this planet previously.
Russia-China Partnership Agreement
On February 4, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have signed a joint statement in Beijing before the Winter Olympics opening ceremony held in China.
This statement was accepted as a bold declaration of the “New World Order” and the partnership between the two states without any limitations.
The statement can be divided into four parts:
the manifest on the new world order,
Grand Eurasian Partnership,
the United States (US) aggression, and
cooperation against US aggression.
It should be noted that it is much more than just an inclusive agreement and it will change the balance of power in world politics.
About the New World Order, the sides believed that a new period has started in international relations, and global society demands a new international order based on development in a multi-polar world. Also, the sides suggested that multi-lateral ties have been quite significant in foreign policy and aimed at developing global governance. In addition to that, they offered a powerful United Nations is needed to provide multi-polar in international relations. In addition to that, the G20 format was supported instead of G7 since it is much more inclusive. Also, China and Russia believed that they played and will play an active role in the WTO.
On Grand Eurasian Partnership, the sides have declared that the relations between the two countries are much stronger than it was in the Cold War Period. Also, China’s continuing economic and political project is known as the “Belt and Road” Initiative (BRI). In the statement, it was claimed that following the BRI, a new Grand Eurasian Partnership would be established, contributing to cultural, economic, political, and historical relations of the region.
Russa and China against NATO. China and Russia have declared that they are against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as it approached the Black Sea region and started to try to contain Russia in the latest Ukraine-Russia conflict. The sides believe that NATO is following the mentality of the Cold War period; however, as mentioned before, the world order is changing, as they suggested. Besides NATO, the sides indicated that the policies of the US in the India-Pacific region are dangerous and threatening the peace-building attempts in the Asia-Pacific region. They claimed that Russia and China are concerned about the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom (AUKUS), which provides for deeper cooperation between its members in areas involving strategic stability, in particular their decision to initiate collaboration in the field of nuclear-powered submarines.
Against the United States. On the other hand, the most crucial element of the joint declaration was the alliance against the US. The sides declared that the US could escalate the colorful revolutions in the region and stand against that. Also, the sides have put their views on contrasting against terrorism, that they will not let politicization of terrorism, and using terrorism as a tool of interrupting the domestic politics of any country. The two countries highlighted that they would stand against the sanctions of the US by struggling with economic inequality.
Responses
Some responses were given after the declaration of that Joint Statement.
United States. It says (paraphrasing) “It’s a trivial attempt to circumvent our power and influence.” The US officials stated that, with the Joint Statement, that it was of no real consequence. They said that, China’s Xi Jinping could not protect Russia from sanctions. That, in their mind, was the sole purpose of the agreement.
Australia. The Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs Marise Payne criticized the Agreement. Australia stated,
“The joint statement lays out a vision of the world that differs from Australia’s and our allies’ and partners’, and I’m convinced it includes all of our Quad partners.”
Also, in an interview with the ABC on Wednesday, she claimed that the tight security situation at the Russia-Ukraine border did not overshadow the importance the US places on the Indo-Pacific region. Further, Russia and China have slammed the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy, rejecting the establishment of closed bloc structures and opposing camps in the Asia-Pacific region. She said Australia is very worried about the Russian military build-up along the Ukraine border and called for a reciprocal conversation to de-escalate the situation.
United Kingdom. The chair of the UK’s parliamentary defense committee, Tobias Ellwood, also claimed that “Russia provides oil, gas and military hardware. China, in return, provides advanced technology,” he wrote, adding that:
“Today, we are seeing the birth of a potent anti-democratic alliance. It is on track to see the world shear into two spheres of competing influence. And we have let it happen.”
Which has me scratching my head. has this Bozo Tobias Ellwood actually read the document. It actually clearly states…
"The sides believe that democracy is a means of citizens' participation in the government of their country with the view to improving the well-being of population and implementing the principle of popular government."
Joint statement by Russia, China formalizes bilateral alliance — analyst
"This declaration formalizes the de facto established union of Russia and China."-Maslov
In their joint statement two countries described the principles they would rely on in developing global cooperation, Alexey Maslov notes
MOSCOW, February 4. /TASS/. The joint statement Russia and China adopted on Friday outlines the principles of new global cooperation and formalizes their bilateral alliance, the director of the Moscow State University’s Asia and Africa Institute, expert of the discussion club Valdai, Alexey Maslov, told TASS on Friday.
“This declaration formalizes the de facto established union of Russia and China. We have been talking a great deal about strategic interaction. This is a real embodiment of this interaction,” Maslov said.
He stressed that in their joint statement Russia and China described the principles they would rely on in developing global cooperation.
“These principles are absolutely not new ones,” he remarked. “In fact, the statement heralds a return to the original UN principles that were laid down back in the 1940s and 1950s.”
The expert believes that the document is a clear sign the countries “share common values, a common understanding of democracy and the idea of the national nature of this democracy, pool together many international projects, the EAEU and the One Belt-One Road and also discuss interaction in the Arctic.”
Maslov stressed that the security issues mentioned in the statement were the most important of all. “A whole list of new types of security was determined there, including cybersecurity, on which the countries will cooperate,” he said.
The analyst stressed that the countries respected each other’s positions. “China does not threaten the interests of Russia and avoids intervention in Russian affairs. Likewise, Russia does not meddle in China’s affairs,” Maslov said.
New era of international relations
"This declaration formalizes the de facto established union of Russia and China."-Maslov
Maslov explained that the “new era” of cooperation was characterized by the need to restore trust in the broadest sense: in world trade, in the military field, in the economy and so on.
“The countries propose if not a program, then at least a declaration of principles a future world is to be based on,” he added.
The expert stressed that this statement “formalizes polarization of forces, and not a confrontation,” because the countries merely declare the principles they rely upon. Maslov stated that other countries were free to join in.
“If some other countries, not necessarily Western ones, for instance, countries in Southeast Asia are prepared for joining the statement or beginning discussions, they will find that this declaration as such is not a closed one for the simple reason other countries may pledge to adhere to the same principles,” he stated.
Maslov sees no risk this statement might cause an escalation of tensions in relations with the West, because it concerns an absolutely parallel process.
“In this respect the document will by no means trigger an escalation. On the contrary, it will rather show that the issue has another side to it. At least, the fact that Russia and China adhere to a different stance,” Maslov concluded.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday arrived in Beijing and held a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. This is Putin’s first visit to China since the beginning of the novel coronavirus pandemic. The Russian-Chinese summit level negotiations ended with the adoption of a joint statement on international relations that were entering a new era and on global sustainable development…
…
This massive document outlines a framework for unity between Russia and China. It does the EXACT SAME THING as what the document which unified the thirteen colonies into one nation known as “The United States of America”.
Old-Fashioned Patty Melts
Sure everyone has eaten a thousand hamburgers, but how many patty melts have you eaten?
Patty Melt done properly.
Everything about these Old-Fashioned Patty Melts is perfect, from the beef patty smothered in cheesy, oniony goodness, to the toasted and buttery rye bread. This sandwich is sure to have you saying “Ooh, it’s so GOUDA!”
What You’ll Need
2 tablespoons butter, divided
1 small onion, thinly sliced
3/4 pound ground beef
Salt to taste
Pepper to taste
4 slices rye bread
4 slices Gouda cheese
1/4 cup Thousand Island salad dressing
What to Do
In a large skillet or grill pan over medium-high heat, melt 1 tablespoon butter; saute onion 6 to 8 minutes, or until it starts to brown. Remove to a bowl and cover.
Shape beef into 2 oval patties; sprinkle with salt and pepper to taste.
In the same skillet over medium heat, cook patties 5 to 7 minutes per side, or until no longer pink in center. Remove from skillet and keep warm.
Spread remaining butter over one side of each slice of bread. Place in skillet buttered side down, and toast until lightly browned.
To assemble a sandwich, place a slice of cheese on a piece of toast, top with a beef patty, half the onion slices, and half the salad dressing. Top with another slice of cheese and piece of toast; repeat with second sandwich, then serve immediately.
Notes
We love some coleslaw as a go-along to this delicious sandwich, so why not make your own by whipping up a batch of some delicious Country Coleslaw!
.
Read this. This is the actual document and translated…
Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development
February 4, 2022
Background
At the invitation of President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping, President of the Russian Federation Vladimir V. Putin visited China on 4 February 2022. The Heads of State held talks in Beijing and took part in the opening ceremony of the XXIV Olympic Winter Games.
The Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China, hereinafter referred to as the sides, state as follows.
The Statement on the New Union
Today, the world is going through momentous changes, and humanity is entering a new era of rapid development and profound transformation.
It sees the development of such processes and phenomena as
multipolarity,
economic globalization,
the advent of information society,
cultural diversity,
transformation of the global governance architecture
and world order;
there is increasing interrelation and interdependence between the States;
a trend has emerged towards redistribution of power in the world;
and the international community is showing a growing demand for the leadership aiming at peaceful and gradual development.
At the same time, as the pandemic of the new coronavirus infection continues, the international and regional security situation is complicating and the number of global challenges and threats is growing from day to day.
Some actors representing but the minority (on the international scale) continue to advocate unilateral approaches to addressing international issues and resort to force;
they interfere in the internal affairs of other states,
infringing their legitimate rights and interests,
and incite contradictions, differences and confrontation,
thus hampering the development and progress of mankind, against the opposition from the international community.
The sides call on all States to pursue well-being for all and, with these ends, to
build dialogue and mutual trust,
strengthen mutual understanding,
champion such universal human values as
peace,
development,
equality,
justice,
democracy and freedom,
respect the rights of peoples to independently determine the development paths of their countries
and the sovereignty and the security and development interests of States,
to protect the United Nations-driven international architecture
and the international law-based world order,
seek genuine multipolarity with the United Nations
and its Security Council playing a central and coordinating role,
promote more democratic international relations,
and ensure peace, stability and sustainable development across the world.
I
The sides share the understanding that democracy is a universal human value, rather than a privilege of a limited number of States, and that its promotion and protection is a common responsibility of the entire world community.
The sides believe that democracy is a means of citizens’ participation in the government of their country with the view to improving the well-being of population and implementing the principle of popular government.
Democracy is exercised in all spheres of public life as part of a nation-wide process and reflects the interests of all the people, its will, guarantees its rights, meets its needs and protects its interests.
There is no one-size-fits-all template to guide countries in establishing democracy.
A nation can choose such forms and methods of implementing democracy that would best suit its particular state, based on
its social and political system,
its historical background,
traditions and unique cultural characteristics.
It is only up to the people of the country to decide whether their State is a democratic one.
The sides note that Russia and China as world powers with rich cultural and historical heritage have long-standing traditions of democracy, which rely on
thousand-years of experience of development,
broad popular support and
consideration of the needs and interests of citizens.
Russia and China guarantee their people the right to take part through various means and in various forms in the administration of the State and public life in accordance with the law.
The people of both countries are certain of the way they have chosen and respect the democratic systems and traditions of other States.
The sides note that democratic principles are implemented at the global level, as well as in administration of State.
Certain States’ attempts to impose their own ”democratic standards“ on other countries,
to monopolize the right to assess the level of compliance with democratic criteria,
to draw dividing lines based on the grounds of ideology,
including by establishing exclusive blocs and alliances of convenience,
prove to be nothing but flouting of democracy and go against the spirit and true values of democracy.
Such attempts at hegemony pose serious threats to global and regional peace and stability and undermine the stability of the world order.
The sides believe that the advocacy of democracy and human rights must not be used to put pressure on other countries.
They oppose the abuse of democratic values and interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states under the pretext of protecting democracy and human rights, and any attempts to incite divisions and confrontation in the world.
The sides call on the international community to respect cultural and civilizational diversity and the rights of peoples of different countries to self-determination.
They stand ready to work together with all the interested partners to promote genuine democracy.
The sides note that the Charter of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights set noble goals in the area of universal human rights, set forth fundamental principles, which all the States must comply with and observe in deeds.
At the same time, as every nation has its own unique national features, history, culture, social system and level of social and economic development, universal nature of human rights should be seen through the prism of the real situation in every particular country, and human rights should be protected in accordance with the specific situation in each country and the needs of its population.
Promotion and protection of human rights is a shared responsibility of the international community.
The states should equally prioritize all categories of human rights and promote them in a systemic manner.
The international human rights cooperation should be carried out as a dialogue between the equals involving all countries.
All States must have equal access to the right to development. Interaction and cooperation on human rights matters should be based on the principle of equality of all countries and mutual respect for the sake of strengthening the international human rights architecture.
II
The sides believe that peace, development and cooperation lie at the core of the modern international system.
Development is a key driver in ensuring the prosperity of the nations.
The ongoing pandemic of the new coronavirus infection poses a serious challenge to the fulfilment of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
It is vital to enhance partnership relations for the sake of global development and make sure that the new stage of global development is defined by balance, harmony and inclusiveness.
The sides are seeking to advance their work to link the development plans for the Eurasian Economic Union and the Belt and Road Initiative with a view to intensifying practical cooperation between the EAEU and China in various areas and promoting greater interconnectedness between the Asia Pacific and Eurasian regions.
The sides reaffirm their focus on building the Greater Eurasian Partnership in parallel and in coordination with the Belt and Road construction to foster the development of regional associations as well as bilateral and multilateral integration processes for the benefit of the peoples on the Eurasian continent.
The sides agreed to continue consistently intensifying practical cooperation for the sustainable development of the Arctic.
The sides will strengthen cooperation within multilateral mechanisms, including the United Nations, and encourage the international community to prioritize development issues in the global macro-policy coordination.
They call on the developed countries to implement in good faith their formal commitments on
development assistance,
provide more resources to developing countries,
address the uneven development of States,
work to offset such imbalances within States, and advance global and international development cooperation.
The Russian side confirms its readiness to continue working on the China-proposed Global Development Initiative, including participation in the activities of the Group of Friends of the Global Development Initiative under the UN auspices.
In order to accelerate the implementation of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the sides call on the international community to take practical steps in key areas of
cooperation such as poverty reduction,
food security,
vaccines and epidemics control,
financing for development,
climate change,
sustainable development,
including green development,
industrialization,
digital economy, and
infrastructure connectivity.
The sides call on the international community to
create open, equal, fair and non-discriminatory conditions for scientific and technological development,
to step up practical implementation of scientific and technological advances in order to identify new drivers of economic growth.
The sides call upon all countries to strengthen cooperation in
sustainable transport,
actively build contacts and share knowledge in the construction of transport facilities,
including smart transport and sustainable transport,
development and use of Arctic routes,
as well as to develop other areas to support global post-epidemic recovery.
The sides are taking serious action and making an important contribution to the fight against climate change.
Jointly celebrating the 30th anniversary of the adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, they reaffirm their commitment to this Convention as well as to the goals, principles and provisions of the Paris Agreement, including the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.
The sides work together to ensure the full and effective implementation of the Paris Agreement, remain committed to fulfilling the obligations they have undertaken and expect that developed countries will actually ensure the annual provision of $100 billion of climate finance to developing states. The sides oppose setting up new barriers in international trade under the pretext of fighting climate change.
The sides strongly support the development of international cooperation and exchanges in the field of biological diversity, actively participating in the relevant global governance process, and intend to jointly promote the harmonious development of humankind and nature as well as green transformation to ensure sustainable global development.
The Heads of State positively assess the effective interaction between Russia and China in the bilateral and multilateral formats focusing on
the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic,
protection of life and health of the population of the two countries and the peoples of the world.
They will further increase cooperation in the development and manufacture of vaccines against the new coronavirus infection,
as well as medical drugs for its treatment,
and enhance collaboration in public health and modern medicine.
The sides plan to strengthen coordination on epidemiological measures to ensure strong protection of health, safety and order in contacts between citizens of the two countries.
The sides have commended the work of the competent authorities and regions of the two countries on implementing quarantine measures in the border areas and ensuring the stable operation of the border crossing points, and intend to consider establishing a joint mechanism for epidemic control and prevention in the border areas to jointly plan anti-epidemic measures to be taken at the border checkpoints, share information, build infrastructure and improve the efficiency of customs clearance of goods.
The sides emphasize that ascertaining the origin of the new coronavirus infection is a matter of science.
Research on this topic must be based on global knowledge, and that requires cooperation among scientists from all over the world.
The sides oppose politicization of this issue. The Russian side welcomes the work carried out jointly by China and WHO to identify the source of the new coronavirus infection and supports the China – WHO joint report on the matter. The sides call on the global community to jointly promote a serious scientific approach to the study of the coronavirus origin.
The Russian side supports a successful hosting by the Chinese side of the Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in Beijing in 2022.
The sides highly appreciate the level of bilateral cooperation in sports and the Olympic movement and express their readiness to contribute to its further progressive development.
III
The sides are gravely concerned about serious international security challenges and believe that the fates of all nations are interconnected.
No State can or should ensure its own security separately from the security of the rest of the world and at the expense of the security of other States. The international community should actively engage in global governance to ensure universal, comprehensive, indivisible and lasting security.
The sides reaffirm their strong mutual support for the protection
of their core interests,
state sovereignty and territorial integrity,
and oppose interference by external forces in their internal affairs.
The Russian side reaffirms its support for the One-China principle, confirms that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and opposes any forms of independence of Taiwan.
Russia and China stand against attempts by external forces to
undermine security and stability in their common adjacent regions,
intend to counter interference by outside forces in the internal affairs of sovereign countries under any pretext,
oppose colour revolutions, and
will increase cooperation in the aforementioned areas.
The sides condemn terrorism in all its manifestations, promote the idea of creating a single global anti-terrorism front, with the United Nations playing a central role, advocate stronger political coordination and constructive engagement in multilateral counterterrorism efforts.
The sides oppose politicization of the issues of combating terrorism and their use as instruments of policy of double standards, condemn the practice of interference in the internal affairs of other States for geopolitical purposes through the use of terrorist and extremist groups as well as under the guise of combating international terrorism and extremism.
The sides believe that certain States, military and political alliances and coalitions seek to obtain, directly or indirectly, unilateral military advantages to the detriment of the security of others, including
by employing unfair competition practices,
intensify geopolitical rivalry,
fuel antagonism and confrontation, and
seriously undermine the international security order and global strategic stability.
The sides oppose further enlargement of NATO and call on the North Atlantic Alliance to abandon its ideologized cold war approaches, to respect the sovereignty, security and interests of other countries, the diversity of their civilizational, cultural and historical backgrounds, and to exercise a fair and objective attitude towards the peaceful development of other States.
The sides stand against the formation of closed bloc structures and opposing camps in the Asia-Pacific region and remain highly vigilant about the negative impact of the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy on peace and stability in the region. Russia and China have made consistent efforts to build an equitable, open and inclusive security system in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) that is not directed against third countries and that promotes peace, stability and prosperity.
The sides welcome the Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapons States on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races.
And believe that all nuclear-weapons States should abandon the cold war mentality and zero-sum games, reduce the role of nuclear weapons in their national security policies, withdraw nuclear weapons deployed abroad, eliminate the unrestricted development of global anti-ballistic missile defense (ABM) system, and take effective steps to reduce the risks of nuclear wars and any armed conflicts between countries with military nuclear capabilities.
The sides reaffirm that the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is the cornerstone of the international disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation system, an important part of the post-war international security system, and plays an indispensable role in world peace and development. The international community should promote the balanced implementation of the three pillars of the Treaty and work together to protect the credibility, effectiveness and the universal nature of the instrument.
The sides are seriously concerned about the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom (AUKUS), which provides for deeper cooperation between its members in areas involving strategic stability, in particular their decision to initiate cooperation in the field of nuclear-powered submarines.
Russia and China believe that such actions are
contrary to the objectives of security and sustainable development of the Asia-Pacific region,
increase the danger of an arms race in the region, and
pose serious risks of nuclear proliferation.
The sides strongly condemn such moves and call on AUKUS participants to fulfil their nuclear and missile non-proliferation commitments in good faith and to work together to safeguard peace, stability, and development in the region.
Japan’s plans to release nuclear contaminated water from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear plant into the ocean and the potential environmental impact of such actions are of deep concern to the sides.
The sides emphasize that the disposal of nuclear contaminated water should be handled with responsibility and carried out in a proper manner based on arrangements between the Japanese side and neighbouring States, other interested parties, and relevant international agencies while ensuring transparency, scientific reasoning, and in accordance with international law.
The sides believethat
the U.S. withdrawal from the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles,
the acceleration of research and the development of intermediate-range and shorter-range ground-based missiles
and the desire to deploy them in the Asia-Pacific and European regions,
as well as their transfer to the allies,
…entail an increase in tension and distrust, increase risks to international and regional security, lead to the weakening of international non-proliferation and arms control system, undermining global strategic stability.
The sides call on the United States to respond positively to the Russian initiative and abandon its plans to deploy intermediate-range and shorter-range ground-based missiles in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe.
The sides will continue to maintain contacts and strengthen coordination on this issue.
The Chinese side is sympathetic to and supports the proposals put forward by the Russian Federation to create long-term legally binding security guarantees in Europe.
The sides note that the denunciation by the United States of a number of important international arms control agreements has an extremely negative impact on international and regional security and stability.
The sides express concern over the advancement of U.S. plans to develop global missile defence and deploy its elements in various regions of the world, combined with capacity building of high-precision non-nuclear weapons for disarming strikes and other strategic objectives.
The sides stress the importance of the peaceful uses of outer space, strongly support the central role of the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space in promoting international cooperation, maintaining and developing international space law and regulation in the field of space activities. Russia and China will continue to increase cooperation on such matters of mutual interest as the long-term sustainability of space activities and the development and use of space resources.
The sides oppose attempts by some States to turn outer space into an arena of armed confrontation and reiterate their intention to make all necessary efforts to prevent the weaponization of space and an arms race in outer space. They will counteract activities aimed at achieving military superiority in space and using it for combat operations.
The sides affirm the need for the early launch of negotiations to conclude a legally binding multilateral instrument based on the Russian-Chinese draft treaty on the prevention of placement of weapons in outer space and the use or threat of force against space objects that would provide fundamental and reliable guarantees against an arms race and the weaponization of outer space.
Russia and China emphasize that appropriate transparency and confidence-building measures, including an international initiative/political commitment not to be the first to place weapons in space, can also contribute to the goal of preventing an arms race in outer space, but such measures should complement and not substitute the effective legally binding regime governing space activities.
The sides reaffirm their belief that the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction (BWC) is an essential pillar of international peace and security. Russia and China underscore their determination to preserve the credibility and effectiveness of the Convention.
The sides affirm the need to fully respect and further strengthen the BWC, including by institutionalizing it, strengthening its mechanisms, and adopting a legally binding Protocol to the Convention with an effective verification mechanism, as well as through regular consultation and cooperation in addressing any issues related to the implementation of the Convention.
The sides emphasize that domestic and foreign bioweapons activities by the United States and its allies raise serious concerns and questions for the international community regarding their compliance with the BWC.
The sides share the view that such activities pose a serious threat to the national security of the Russian Federation and China and are detrimental to the security of the respective regions.
The sides call on the U.S. and its allies to act in an open, transparent, and responsible manner by properly reporting on their military biological activities conducted overseas and on their national territory, and by supporting the resumption of negotiations on a legally binding BWC Protocol with an effective verification mechanism.
The sides, reaffirming their commitment to the goal of a world free of chemical weapons, call upon all parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention to work together to uphold its credibility and effectiveness.
Russia and China are deeply concerned about the politicization of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and call on all of its members to strengthen solidarity and cooperation and protect the tradition of consensual decision-making.
Russia and China insist that the United States, as the sole State Party to the Convention that has not yet completed the process of eliminating chemical weapons, accelerate the elimination of its stockpiles of chemical weapons.
The sides emphasize the importance of balancing the non-proliferation obligations of states with the interests of legitimate international cooperation in the use of advanced technology and related materials and equipment for peaceful purposes.
The sides note the resolution entitled ”Promoting international Cooperation on Peaceful Uses in the Context of International Security“ adopted at the 76th session of the UN General Assembly on the initiative of China and co‑sponsored by Russia, and look forward to its consistent implementation in accordance with the goals set forth therein.
The sides attach great importance to the issues of governance in the field of artificial intelligence. The sides are ready to strengthen dialogue and contacts on artificial intelligence.
The sides reiterate their readiness to deepen cooperation in the field of international information security and to contribute to building an open, secure, sustainable and accessible ICT environment.
The sides emphasize that the principles of the non-use of force, respect for national sovereignty and fundamental human rights and freedoms, and non-interference in the internal affairs of other States, as enshrined in the UN Charter, are applicable to the information space.
Russia and China reaffirm the key role of the UN in responding to threats to international information security and express their support for the Organization in developing new norms of conduct of states in this area.
The sides welcome the implementation of the global negotiation process on international information security within a single mechanism and support in this context the work of the UN Open-ended Working Group on security of and in the use of information and communication technologies (ICTs) 2021–2025 (OEWG) and express their willingness to speak with one voice within it.
The sides consider it necessary to consolidate the efforts of the international community to develop new norms of responsible behaviour of States, including legal ones, as well as a universal international legal instrument regulating the activities of States in the field of ICT.
The sides believe that the Global Initiative on Data Security, proposed by the Chinese side and supported, in principle, by the Russian side, provides a basis for the Working Group to discuss and elaborate responses to data security threats and other threats to international information security.
The sides reiterate their support of United Nations General Assembly resolutions 74/247 and 75/282, support the work of the relevant Ad Hoc Committee of Governmental Experts, facilitate the negotiations within the United Nations for the elaboration of an international convention on countering the use of ICTs for criminal purposes.
The sides encourage constructive participation of all sides in the negotiations in order to agree as soon as possible on a credible, universal, and comprehensive convention and provide it to the United Nations General Assembly at its 78th session in strict compliance with resolution 75/282. For these purposes, Russia and China have presented a joint draft convention as a basis for negotiations.
The sides support the internationalization of Internet governance, advocate equal rights to its governance, believe that any attempts to limit their sovereign right to regulate national segments of the Internet and ensure their security are unacceptable, are interested in greater participation of the International Telecommunication Union in addressing these issues.
The sides intend to deepen bilateral cooperation in international information security on the basis of the relevant 2015 intergovernmental agreement. To this end, the sides have agreed to adopt in the near future a plan for cooperation between Russia and China in this area.
IV
The sides underline that Russia and China, as world powers and permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, intend to
firmly adhere to moral principles and accept their responsibility,
strongly advocate the international system with the central coordinating role of the United Nations in international affairs,
defend the world order based on international law,
including the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations,
advance multipolarity and
promote the democratization of international relations, together create an even more prospering, stable, and just world, jointly build international relations of a new type.
The Russian side notes the significance of the concept of constructing a ”community of common destiny for mankind“ proposed by the Chinese side to ensure greater solidarity of the international community and consolidation of efforts in responding to common challenges.
The Chinese side notes the significance of the efforts taken by the Russian side to establish a just multipolar system of international relations.
The sides intend to strongly uphold the outcomes of the Second World War and the existing post-war world order, defend the authority of the United Nations and justice in international relations, resist attempts to deny, distort, and falsify the history of the Second World War.
In order to prevent the recurrence of the tragedy of the world war, the sides will strongly condemn actions aimed at denying the responsibility for atrocities of Nazi aggressors, militarist invaders, and their accomplices, besmirch and tarnish the honour of the victorious countries.
The sides call for the establishment of a new kind of relationships between world powers on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and mutually beneficial cooperation.
They reaffirm that the new inter-State relations between Russia and China are superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War era.
Friendship between the two States has no limits.
There are no ”forbidden“ areas of cooperation, strengthening of bilateral strategic cooperation is neither aimed against third countries nor affected by the changing international environment and circumstantial changes in third countries.
The sides reiterate the need for consolidation, not division of the international community, the need for cooperation, not confrontation.
The sides oppose the return of international relations to the state of confrontation between major powers, when the weak fall prey to the strong.
The sides intend to resist attempts to substitute universally recognized formats and mechanisms that are consistent with international law for rules elaborated in private by certain nations or blocs of nations, and are against addressing international problems indirectly and without consensus, oppose power politics, bullying, unilateral sanctions, and extraterritorial application of jurisdiction, as well as the abuse of export control policies, and support trade facilitation in line with the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The sides reaffirmed their intention to strengthen foreign policy coordination, pursue true multilateralism, strengthen cooperation on multilateral platforms, defend common interests, support the international and regional balance of power, and improve global governance.
The sides support and defend the multilateral trade system based on the central role of the World Trade Organization (WTO), take an active part in the WTO reform, opposing unilateral approaches and protectionism. The sides are ready to strengthen dialogue between partners and coordinate positions on trade and economic issues of common concern, contribute to ensuring the sustainable and stable operation of global and regional value chains, promote a more open, inclusive, transparent, non-discriminatory system of international trade and economic rules.
The sides support the G20 format as an important forum for discussing international economic cooperation issues and anti-crisis response measures, jointly promote the invigorated spirit of solidarity and cooperation within the G20, support the leading role of the association in such areas as the international fight against epidemics, world economic recovery, inclusive sustainable development, improving the global economic governance system in a fair and rational manner to collectively address global challenges.
The sides support the deepened strategic partnership within BRICS, promote the expanded cooperation in three main areas: politics and security, economy and finance, and humanitarian exchanges.
In particular, Russia and China intend to encourage interaction in the fields of
public health,
digital economy,
science,
innovation and technology,
including artificial intelligence technologies,
as well as the increased coordination between BRICS countries on international platforms.
The sides strive to further strengthen the BRICS Plus/Outreach format as an effective mechanism of dialogue with regional integration associations and organizations of developing countries and States with emerging markets.
The Russian side will fully support the Chinese side chairing the association in 2022, and assist in the fruitful holding of the XIV BRICS summit.
Russia and China aim to comprehensively strengthen the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and further enhance its role in shaping a polycentric world order based on the universally recognized principles of international law, multilateralism, equal, joint, indivisible, comprehensive and sustainable security.
They consider it important to consistently implement the agreements on improved mechanisms to counter challenges and threats to the security of SCO member states and, in the context of addressing this task, advocate expanded functionality of the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure.
The sides will contribute to imparting a new quality and dynamics to the economic interaction between the SCO member States in the fields of
trade,
manufacturing,
transport,
energy,
finance,
investment,
agriculture,
customs,
telecommunications,
innovation and
other areas of mutual interest, including through the use of advanced, resource-saving, energy efficient and ”green“ technologies.
The sides note the fruitful interaction within the SCO under the 2009 Agreement between the Governments of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member States on cooperation in the field of international information security, as well as within the specialized Group of Experts. In this context, they welcome the adoption of the SCO Joint Action Plan on Ensuring International Information Security for 2022–2023 by the Council of Heads of State of SCO Member States on September 17, 2021 in Dushanbe.
Russia and China proceed from the ever-increasing importance of cultural and humanitarian cooperation for the progressive development of the SCO. In order to strengthen mutual understanding between the people of the SCO member States, they will continue to effectively foster interaction in such areas as cultural ties, education, science and technology, healthcare, environmental protection, tourism, people-to-people contacts, sports.
Russia and China will continue to work to strengthen the role of APEC as the leading platform for multilateral dialogue on economic issues in the Asia-Pacific region.
The sides intend to step up coordinated action to successfully implement the ”Putrajaya guidelines for the development of APEC until 2040“ with a focus on creating a free, open, fair, non-discriminatory, transparent and predictable trade and investment environment in the region. Particular emphasis will be placed on the fight against the novel coronavirus infection pandemic and economic recovery, digitalization of a wide range of different spheres of life, economic growth in remote territories and the establishment of interaction between APEC and other regional multilateral associations with a similar agenda.
The sides intend to develop cooperation within the ”Russia-India-China“ format, as well as to
strengthen interaction on such venues as the East Asia Summit,
ASEAN Regional Forum on Security,
Meeting of Defense Ministers of the ASEAN Member States and Dialogue Partners.
Russia and China support ASEAN’s central role in developing cooperation in East Asia, continue to increase coordination on deepened cooperation with ASEAN, and jointly promote cooperation in the areas of public health, sustainable development, combating terrorism and countering transnational crime.
The sides intend to continue to work in the interest of a strengthened role of ASEAN as a key element of the regional architecture.
…
It’s very straight-forward. This document lays out the actions and behaviors of the two nations (Russia and China), their interaction with the rest of the work, how the two nations interact with each other, and areas where they will jointly work together.
It is, a de facto. constitution for a unified Asia.
Now, let’s see how this document was presented to Americans. My guess is that they are far too stupid to understand what is going on.
My guess is that they will interject the article with boilerplate negatives, distortions of the text, and gloss over the actual content and meaning behind it.
They will also include disparaging comments, and attempt to detrail the content.
Russia and China Unveil a Pact Against America and the West
In a sweeping long-term agreement, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the two most powerful autocrats, challenge the current political and military order.
In their matching mauve ties, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping last week declared a “new era” in the global order and, at least in the short term, endorsed their respective territorial ambitions in Ukraine and Taiwan. The world’s two most powerful autocrats unveiled a sweeping long-term agreement that also challenges the United States as a global power, NATO as a cornerstone of international security, and liberal democracy as a model for the world. “Friendship between the two States has no limits,” they vowed in the communiqué, released after the two leaders met on the eve of the Beijing Winter Olympics. “There are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation.”
Agreements between Moscow and Beijing, including the Treaty of Friendship of 2001, have traditionally been laden with lofty, if vague, rhetoric that faded into forgotten history. But the new and detailed five-thousand-word agreement is more than a collection of the usual tropes, Robert Daly, the director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, at the Wilson Center, in Washington, told me.
Although it falls short of a formal alliance, like NATO, the agreement reflects a more elaborate show of solidarity than anytime in the past. “This is a pledge to stand shoulder to shoulder against America and the West, ideologically as well as militarily,” Daly said. “This statement might be looked back on as the beginning of Cold War Two.” The timing and clarity of the communiqué—amid tensions on Russia’s border with Europe and China’s aggression around Taiwan—will “give historians the kind of specific event that they often focus on.”
Beyond security, the declaration also pledged collaboration on space, climate change, the Internet, and artificial intelligence. Politically, the document claimed that there is “no one-size-fits-all” type of democracy, and heralded both forms of authoritarian rule in Moscow and Beijing as successful democracies. “It’s a pretty striking step closer to an alliance and shows that they’re very much aligned in their vision of the world order in the twenty-first century,” Alexander Vershbow, a former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, told me.
Putin described the broader strategic partnership with China as “unprecedented.”
Xi said that their joint strategy would have a “far-reaching influence on China, Russia, and the world.”
U.S. experts described the lengthy statement, which was riddled with false and accusatory language, as startling. “I’ve never seen a joint statement from both leaders using this kind of language.
She described the communiqué as “quite Orwellian” and called it an “inflection point” in which Russia and China are challenging the balance of power that has defined the global order since the Cold War ended, three decades ago. “We could be at the beginning of a new era as the Russian relationship with the West deteriorates and China’s does as well.”
The agreement puts Washington and its key allies “in a terrible bind,” she added. “The fact is, whatever we do to counter what Russia is doing only reinforces its reliance on China.”
The joint statement is, at least for the moment, a diplomatic boon for Putin amid his showdown with the United States and Europe over Ukraine. For the first time in any of Russia’s recent aggressions, Putin has won the open support of China’s leader. China did not back Russia’s war in Georgia in 2008, or its invasion of Ukraine in 2014, nor has it recognized Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Now Moscow and Beijing, which both have the ability to veto any resolution at the United Nations, have declared their opposition to further enlargement of NATO and to the formation of other regional security alliances. “Russia and China stand against attempts by external forces to undermine security and stability in their common adjacent regions, intend to counter interference by outside forces in the internal affairs of sovereign countries under any pretext, oppose colour revolutions, and will increase cooperation,” the often unwieldy statement declared. “This is where they pledge their troth,” Daly said.
Washington had been pressuring Beijing, including in a call last month between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in an attempt to keep China neutral or out of the Ukraine crisis. Now, at least on paper and in public voice, it has budged, Andrew Weiss, a former National Security Council official who is currently at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told me. “Russia now has China as an endorser of the egregious and inflammatory position that Putin has staked out on Ukraine.”
Hints of China’s shift have been emerging in the past two weeks, as the Ukraine crisis began spilling over onto already tense U.S.-China relations. President Biden’s foreign policy had hoped to steer relations with Beijing toward stable and manageable competition.
Instead, China, which is normally discreet in its diplomacy, is visibly pushing back.
After his conversation with Blinken last month, the Chinese foreign minister said publicly that Russia’s security concern about NATO expansion is legitimate and must be addressed. The Biden Administration countered last week with an admonition. The State Department warned that the West has “an array of tools” to deploy against foreign companies—including in China—that help Russia evade punitive sanctions.
In the new agreement, Russia, in turn, reaffirmed its support for Beijing’s One China policy that Taiwan is “an inalienable part of China, and opposes any forms of independence.” The joint communiqué also supported Beijing’s ruthless crackdown on dissidents in Hong Kong in the past two years. The bold assertions in the joint statement follow deepening military ties between the two nations in the past decade, Weiss noted. Russia and China have conducted dozens of joint exercises and war games that have involved as many as ten thousand troops to hone tactical and operational capabilities.
Russian officials have boasted that the growing defense partnership was designed to warn the United States and NATO not to pressure Moscow. The naval operations have included mock seizures of islands, patrols by long-range bombers over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea, and surface-to-air missile targeting.
Last summer, Putin and Xi both witnessed military exercises in China. In October, they held joint naval exercises off Russia’s far-eastern coast. “The frequency, complexity, and geographic scope has steadily increased, reflecting the growth in the overall bilateral defense relationship,” the U.S. Naval Institute reported last year. As two nuclear-armed countries that span Europe and Asia, the more muscular alignment between Russia and China could be a game changer militarily and diplomatically. “They want this to be as threatening as a formal alliance to the West, but don’t want to formally commit to mutual defense,” Daly said. “They don’t have to. The spectre of their mutual aid will serve as a deterrent.”
The joint announcement reflects a shift in the balance of power between Russia and China as well. “The Russians for the longest time were condescending in their view of China as an uninteresting rural society,” Weiss said. “Now China looks at Russia and says, ‘What are you good for?’
China’s ambitions do not run through Moscow.” China has become “canny” in exploiting Russia’s neediness, he said. “It uses Russia as a cat’s paw to disrupt the U.S. pivot to Asia. The fact that we have to keep coming back to Putin, as the neighborhood bully, is beneficial to China.”
Putin was the highest-profile leader to show up for the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The U.S. and other major powers opted not to send high-profile delegations, to protest China’s human-rights abuses, particularly against its Uyghur minority. Russia had received a two-year ban from officially sending teams to the Olympics after conducting a years-long, state-sponsored doping scheme. Russian athletes—who are not supposed to carry their nation’s flag, wear the Russian insignia, or play the national anthem—instead compete as part of the Russian Olympic Committee. After his meeting with Xi, Putin applauded the team during the opening ceremony’s Parade of Nations on Friday. But his visit clearly had another purpose.
The question now is how far Russia and China will take their agreement. “Words are one thing,” Vershbow, the former Ambassador, said. “We still have to see if the statement will translate into greater tangible Chinese support for Russia’s aggressive behavior—or whether they’ll say, ‘We’re with you, good luck,’ and then turn the other way.” The Chinese have different and sometimes more pragmatic interests in their relations with the U.S. and Europe, which are vital to their economy. “They don’t want to burn all bridges for the sake of a relationship with Russia.”
Oh, fine and dandy, but…
Let’s stop playing around.
The United States set up identical conditions for war in both Ukraine and Taiwan simultaneously.
This began in 2014 under President Obama.
This action was planned long before that. Perhaps as early as 2004.
The USA set up pro-United States governments in 2014 by NED sponsored activity.
The USA has since poured billions of dollars in weapons to those areas.
And has established bioweapons labs in both areas.
Both governments possess a hatred of their larger neighbor.
And both will try to provoke their neighbor according to the RAND directions.
The United States WILL create a contexual reason to drag China into a terrible and long-duration conventional war on the border of China identically to what has occurred in Ukraine.
So stop pretending.
Right now Russia is in complete control of the Ukraine situation, no matter what the Western “news” says, and a “false flag” event is scheduled to drag the USA and NATO into the conflict. With NATO being a light-weight serrogate for the USA battle forces.
Then the USA will “pivot to Asia” and take out China.
So the conflict in Taiwan will be similiar.
It is planned to be a long drawn out conventional war, and a “false flag” will be a justification for invasion by Japanese, Australian and United States forces.
…
Now, I’m not too swift a Geo-Political strategist. However, if I can see this, then you can well expect that China and Russia see this as well.
Do you think that they have plans, and are aware of the big and larger plans that are in place and the systems that are set in motion?
.
And with that understood, please keep in mind that…
"This declaration formalizes the de facto established union of Russia and China."-Maslov
With this understood, now let’s see what is going on today.
The United States demands that China sever economic ties with Russia or else!
Now, consider the reality about the domestic situation inside of America right now…
A White House account of the call on Friday said that the US president “described the implications and consequences if China provides material support to Russia as it conducts brutal attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilians”.A senior administration official said there would be consequences “not just for China’s relationship with the United States, but for the wider world”, but would not give more details on whether Biden had gone into specifics on possible sanctions, other than to point out what had happened to Russia as an example.
There was nothing specific. Just warnings of “serious consequences” if China and Russia maintain their close relationship.
Obviously, the United States is acting like a pentulant child that is hold his ears and shutting his eyes and screaming as he tries to force the world to go away.
It appears that the United States does not recognize the agreement just forged last month between Russia and China.
Just a reminder to the reader that you now understand thngs far better than the American “leadership” does;
"This declaration formalizes the de facto established union of Russia and China."-Maslov
China is READY
China and Russia are BOTH aware what is going on. They know that the United States plans to destroy both nations and then pick over the carcass like vultures. It’s very clear. It’s very plain. So let’s stop playing games. Let’s stop pretending.
The United States and its allies are getting ready to go full-spectrum war when they are ready to “pivot to Asia”.
It will begin [1] with crossing one of China’s “RED LINES”, just like the USA did with Ukraine. [2] China will react, then [3] a “False Flag” will be tripped, and (of course, to plan, [4] the United States will use it as an excuse to engage in a full war on Chinese soil. Becuase, after all, Taiwan is de facto Chinese soil. No matter what propagandized narrative the West wishes to create.
But… you know…
China is ready.
Video 1– China knows that America wants a war. – Adults
The pretext will be Taiwan. Just like it was with Ukraine. And China considers it an American invasion of it’s land. They will fight to the death, and employ great weapons of mass, mass, destruction.
You all had wish you were not on the recieving side of this onslaught of rage. I can tell you, and so can other expats inside of China, the Chinese are very quiet and studious, but when they get angry… when they get angry… they will unleash a rage that is indescribable. They will unleash… slaughter.
Video 2 -First grade military training – 5 / 6 year olds
Inside of China, very first grade, and many Kindergardens begin their day with roll-call, and reporting. Such as this. video 5 MB
Video 3 – Elementary school training – 9 year olds
Hey! Do you notice that these are not cheap AK-47 clones. They do not exist in China. REAL GUNS exist in China.
These are real deal full-auto Chinese military weapons. These are fourth grade kids. Nope. They probably couldn’t take on American SEALs or Green Berets. But that is not the point. The point is everyone in China is trained to fight. It is the law. And they are merit driven and they work together as one. Everyone in a town or villiage acts as a fully managed army unit. Let that soak in. All 1.4 billion of them.
That’s 1,400,000,000,000,000 people.
How many military forces do you think that the United States can throw together to invade China? 60,000? 90,000? Even including Japan and Australia? Watch the video. This is all over China. video 31MB
Video 4 – EVERYONE in China has combat training – 17 year olds
Oh, you don’t beleive me, eh? What, you think that this is basic training, huh? No. It isn’t. It’s High School drills. High School drills. Let that sink in.
While the United States has “pepe rallies”, diversity training, ebonics, and soft subjects like fund-raising, China teaches basics, drills and trains over and over and over. They train with real weapons with real live ammo. video a must watch. Know the context. Filmed at their High School complex. video 11MB
Video 5 – Middle School exercises. 14 year old kids
Every Summer, the middle school students go on training exercises. Some resemble “Boot Camp”, while others are “actual maneuvres” and “War Games”. Here’s one such event.
Sure, they cannot take an American Green Beret one-on-one or an SAS fighter. But what about 20-to-1, or 200-to-1, or maybe 2000-to-1. How do you think the United States invasion of Taiwan will work out?
Video 6 – Middle school (14 year old) target practice
Using real government issued weapons, and ammo. Tell me about the firearm training that the United States, the UK, or Australia provides in middle school. I would like to hear it.
Video 7 – China hasn’t forgotten, and they haven’t forgiven.
All of China remembers the “great humiliation” inflicted on them by Europe and America, and they well remember the atrocities of Japan, as this video clearly show.
I can tell you truthfully, if Japan engages China, Japan will become radioactive waste.
Video 8 – What the start of world war III might look like
You know, Hollywood has been glorifying war for decades. And China is always considered an enemy and an easy target. Ever watch the latest “Red Dawn” remake?
Here we see a mashup with Hollywood movies, and Chinese movies trying to suggest what the start of world war III looks like when the United States places a Naval Battle Group between the mainland and Taiwan.
What we are witnessing is truly the beginning of the end. In recent months I have focused a lot on the economic implosion that is now taking place, but what we are facing is so much broader than that.
Our society is literally falling to pieces all around us, and now World War 3 has begun. Many regard the war that has erupted on the other side of the globe as just a conflict between Ukraine and Russia, but the truth is that it is really a proxy war between the United States and Russia. And since neither side seems much interested in diplomacy at this point, this proxy war could eventually become a shooting war between the two greatest nuclear powers on the entire planet.
Before the war started, events were already starting to accelerate substantially. Inflation was out of control, a new energy crisis had flared up, and global food supplies were getting tighter and tighter. But now we are truly in unprecedented territory. If you doubt this, just look at what is happening to the price of fertilizer.
2022 03 28 09 47
That chart should chill you to the core, because it clearly tells us that food shortages are coming.
In fact, even Joe Biden is now publicly admitting that food shortages are coming. On his show the other night, Tucker Carlson broke this down in a way that only Tucker Carlson can…
Before the war, some fertilizers had doubled in price and some had tripled in price.
In the video that you just watched, we are told that some fertilizer prices are now four to five times higher than they were a year ago.
Here in the western world, most farmers will simply bite the bullet and pay the higher prices. In turn, we will pay higher prices for food at the grocery store.
But in poorer parts of the globe, many farmers will use a whole lot less fertilizer or none at all. As a result, global food production will be way down in the months ahead.
To turn this crisis around, what we really need is for the proxy war in Ukraine to end. Unfortunately, both sides just continue to escalate matters instead.
For example, on Saturday Joe Biden shocked the entire world when he stated that Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power”…
President Joe Biden on Saturday said Russian leader Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power,” ratcheting up international pressure and further uniting NATO allies against Putin over his invasion of Ukraine.“A dictator, bent on rebuilding an empire, will never erase the people’s love for liberty,” Biden said at the end of a sweeping speech in Poland. “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia, for free people refuse to live in a world of hopelessness and darkness.”
That was a call for regime change in Russia.
Russian leaders were already paranoid about western intentions before, and now their paranoia is going to be off the charts.
Biden administration officials are trying to walk back Biden’s comments, but the damage has already been done.
Meanwhile, we just learned that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have not spoken at all since February 15th…
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov have not spoken since February 15, over a week before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the State Department told Antiwar.com on Friday.Earlier this week The Washington Post cited US officials who said Blinken hasn’t attempted to speak with Lavrov since the start of the conflict. When asked to confirm the story, a State Department spokesperson said, “We can confirm that the last time Secretary Blinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov spoke was on February 15.”
Even during the darkest days of the Cuban missile crisis, U.S. officials always kept talking to the Russians.
So this is something that should alarm all of us greatly.
On top of everything else, Joe Biden just told U.S. troops in Poland that they will see what conditions in Ukraine are like “when you’re there”…
According to The Associated Press, Biden’s remarks were given in front of U.S. troops who “had been sent near Poland’s border [with Ukraine] to assist with the humanitarian emergency and to bolster the U.S. military presence on the eastern flank of NATO.” The words, “and you’re gonna see when you’re there,” were spoken right after the president mentioned the bravery of Ukrainian citizens. Later, the White House once again told reporters that U.S. troops would not be deployed to fight in the war in Ukraine.
Every time Biden opens his mouth, he makes things even worse.
President Joe Biden is abandoning a campaign vow to alter longstanding US nuclear doctrine, and will instead embrace existing policy that reserves America’s right to use nukes in a first-strike scenario, according to multiple reports.As Russian forces continue their bloody assault on Ukraine, Biden is under pressure from NATO allies not to abandon the right to use nuclear weapons to deter conventional attacks.
Many had thought that the war in Ukraine would help to unite America and would provide a boost to Biden’s extremely poor approval ratings.
And in the initial days of the war, that seemed to happen.
President Joe Biden’s job approval ratings keep falling in his second year in the White House, with just 40% of Americans approving of the job that he is doing, a new NBC News survey finds.That is the lowest rating Biden has seen in his presidency.
We were warned that 2022 would be a very troubled year, and we are still in the very early chapters.
If the Biden administration continues with all of this insanity, things are going to get a whole lot worse. I really like how Gerald Celente summarized matters during his recent interview with Greg Hunter…
“We are headed for an economic calamity the likes of which we have never seen in our lifetime. They are getting our minds off it with the war in Ukraine. . . . You know, I wrote in the magazine in the beginning of the year, we said that the Covid war would wind down by late March and mid-April. It’s winding down. . . . So, now, as we said in the magazine, we went from the Covid war to the Ukraine war, and now to world war. We are headed to World War III. . . . There is not a peep about a cease-fire. Biden is only bragging about more weapons being sent in. Biden says we are going to defeat the Russians. We are not backing down. No one is talking about a cease-fire, and no one is talking about peace. If we don’t unite for peace, we are all going to die in war.”
But right now Biden administration officials apparently don’t even see any point in talking with the Russians.
We are steamrolling down a road that leads to nuclear war, and meanwhile the global economy is starting to implode at frightening speed.
If you are still delusional enough to believe that everything will work out “just fine” somehow, then I really feel sorry for you.
Taiwan
Keep in mind again…
Taiwan is part of China. China thinks so, The UN thinks so, and even Taiwan thinks so.
But that does not matter.
The Untied States NEEDS a war and is going to have one. They are going to “pull a Ukraine” on China, and they are almost ready. And you know what? Just like Russia, China is going to move befor the United States can “make its move”. It’s probably going to be undercover, and hidden, but I’m not sure.
One thing that we are learning right now is that the “government” of the Ukraine is just a robot entity. It is a bought-for, and paid-for actor that the Untied State put in charge of things so that it could move it’s military, and it’s forces, and it’s systems onto the border of Russia. It is NOT an independent, democratically elected, goverment. It is a proxy puppet; bought and owned by the United States.
We have to assume that that exact thing is going on in Taiwan.
There is no “government in Taiwan”. There are instead American robots who do whatever Washington DC tells them to do.
So stop all the nonsense and fact the facts.
And China knows this.
Maybe not exactly as I have described, but yeah, they get the picture. In fact, I would arge that they understand the nuiances far better than MM here.
Of course, you would NEVER hear about this in the Western “news” media. China has a military force that is peer-capable, and lethal. And if you are Japanese or a cocky Australian American-lover they will decapitate you. The Chinese DO NOT PLAY.
The Chinese have two things that are found nowhere else in the world; [1] Social unity. They work in groups together as one organism, and [2] They are merit-dren and always do their best.
If you take those two things, and then organize it towards military action. From an early age, then the formation of military actions; defensive actions all become automatic. That is China.
Video – More Chinese elementary schools students video 8MB
Video – Rifle disipline.
Taught with “training weapons”. Lighter, and firing a low recoil projectile instead of a full cartridge. Second and third grade students. China. video 6MB
Video -They fight for family. They fight for survival.
Unlike the American and British “soy-boys” that went to the Ukraine to plink at Russians, and ran home crying after one simple missile barriage, the youth of China are disiplined, and prepared. They will fight to the death. All for their family; their parents and their friends. video 4MB
Video – Chinese youth training
Resembles American Green Beret and SEAL training. Yeah. They get it starting in first grade.
Because the flat slobs in the West, in their easy-chairs, coffered hair, riding their nice cars, and making royal decrees like some kind of bloted evil and corrupt spoiled brat are planning on causing hardship, hurt, turmoil to THESE PEOPLE. And I am here to tell you that is will not work. Instead, it will make them very, very, VERY angry.
There is a reason why China is considered THE DRAGON. And no, it’s not just public relations. China will slice you up and spit you all out. Do not poke the dragon. video 7MB
Video – But it’s the military that China has that is peer capable and lethal
You do not want to fuck with them. All state of the art. Peer capable, or better than what the United States fields, and they love, just love their AI-guided missiles and rockets. Do NOT FUCK with them. video 3MB
Now keep in mind that if it comes down to the Chinese having to use these systems, they will do so with their enemies cites in radioactive rubble. The Chinese do not play around. They are lethal and they will go after enemies with everything they have.
You don’t want to poke the dragon.
Why does the United States want to anger the dragon?
Why?
Because the American “leadership” are psychopaths. They have no understanding of the world, and ideological monsters that are following a dangerous script that will eventually result in the absolute shredding of the Untied States, and a tumble into poverty for all the the West. video 7MB
Ok. Enough of this. Let’s calm down a tad.
Cute Chinese Girl
I think that she is pretty. Nice girl with an umbrella. Video 2MB
Fake UFO video
It’s fun to check out UFO videos. You find them all over the internet, and many are very interesting, but most have no context and thus provide zero information.
The following video is filmed near the “fisher girl” statue here in Zhuhai next to my house where I live. It takes me about seven minutes to walk to it from my front door.
Nothing beats Old-Fashioned Roast Beef the way mama used to make it!
With this roast beef recipe you can bet there’ll be lots of good eatin’. Just remember to let it rest, slice it thinly across the grain, and finish it off with the pan drippings – that’s what makes it absolutely perfect. Oh, and add some potatoes and gravy.
What You’ll Need
1 (4-pound) beef bottom round roast
1 teaspoon paprika
1/2 teaspoon garlic powder
1/2 teaspoon onion powder
1/2 teaspoon salt
1/2 teaspoon black pepper
A beef bottom round roast.
What to Do
Preheat oven to 400 degrees F. Place roasting rack in large roasting pan and coat with cooking spray. Place roast on rack, fat side up.
In small bowl, combine remaining ingredients; mix well. Rub spice mixture over entire roast, covering completely.
Roast 30 minutes. Reduce oven to 300 degrees and continue roasting beef 70 to 75 minutes, or until a meat thermometer registers 135 degrees for medium-rare, or until desired doneness beyond that. Let stand 15 to 20 minutes before slicing.
Notes
To make a tasty sauce for your roast beef, just add 1 cup beef broth to roasting pan and heat over high heat, scraping the bottom to loosen any brown bits.
And sandwiches…
Open Faced Reuben Sandwiches
It’s an awfully delicious sandwich.
Ever find yourself wondering how to make a Reuben sandwich with some style? Some of the biggest and best delis serve their Reubens open-faced, just like in this recipe that we got from a deli in Central New York. We loved these Open Faced Reuben Sandwiches and we had to pass along the recipe for you to enjoy! There’s something about this sandwich that just makes your mouth water.
What You’ll Need
1/2 cup mayonnaise
2 tablespoons ketchup
2 tablespoons sweet pickle relish
1/8 teaspoon garlic powder
1/8 teaspoon salt
1/8 teaspoon black pepper
8 slices rye bread
1 pound sliced deli corned beef
2 (14-ounce) cans sauerkraut, rinsed and well drained
8 slices (6 ounces) Swiss cheese
What to Do
Preheat the oven to 450 degrees F.
In a medium bowl, combine the mayonnaise, ketchup, relish, garlic powder, salt, and pepper; mix well.
Arrange the bread on two baking sheets. Spread dressing mixture on each slice. Top each with corned beef, sauerkraut, and a slice of Swiss cheese.
Bake for 6 to 8 minutes, or until heated through, and the cheese is melted. Place 2 pieces on each plate and serve open-faced.
Test Kitchen Tips
You might want to use only half of the Thousand Island dressing on the sandwiches before baking them. Then just top each slice with a dollop of dressing before serving. Our mouths are already watering!
China is a major force
If you are in the West, it’s easy to get overwhelmed in the lies and bullshit about China.
China is advanced, a manufacturing powerhouse, run on merit and disipline. They are successful and they “ain’t stopping for shit”. If you take them on, they WILL FUCKING SLAUGHTER YOU.
The rest of the world appears lazy in comparison. Chinese are hard drivers. video 4MB
China military. Don’t be so sure that they would be an easy nation to conquer. video 4MB
And this fool, in Hong Kong, obviously influenced by the Pro-Democracy NED “color revolution” decided to harass the Chinese guards. The Chinese DON’T PLAY. Down and drawn in 1.5 seconds. video 3MB
China is fighting to exist. Just like Russia. And if you think , and believe that they are not taking the THREATs from the United States seriously, you are deluded. It’s no mistake that they have a mass production of hyper-velocity nuclear missiles all with the United States targets plastered on them.
Oh, you think that I am kidding? Oh, you think that I am being alarmist? Look at this quote out of the Kremlin directly from President Putin…
PUTIN:
"I am now instructing our 4 combat regions that if USA and NATO dare to provoke us (around the Black Sea) and try to hit us with even ONE guided missile then you must hit them back as hard as possible.
Hit them fiercely until they kneel down for mercy.
If they retaliate, I command you to use nuclear weaponsto hit their countries.
No need to think about the consequences.
I will be solely responsible.
Your duty is just to hit them hard until they kneel down begging for mercy.
Once the war has started I expect you to subdue Europe within 5 days.
No need to think... just take over the 8 capitals of Europe.
From now on our Air, Land and Navy armed forces are on full alert.
I want the world to know who is the leader of the world.
What is USA... I am telling them they will be trembling in front of us.
They have been belittling and making fun of many countries but don't they dare to try us.
Go to hell.
My view is that if the Russians have to live under USA's mercy then what good is there left in this world!!"
-Kremlin
[This link is blocked in the usa, france, hungary, serbia, moldova, switzerland, and singapore. Heck, even the russian language website is blocked.]
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In June 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree stating,
“The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies…
...and also in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is put under threat.”
Clearly, the United States has pushed Russia to a state where they beleive this is the case.
Clearly, though not reported in the Western media, both Russia and China are at a high state of military readiness.
Russia is at the highest state; DEFCON 1. (Open Warfare)
China is at second highest state DEFCON 2. (Full readiness; no open warfare).
No American pre-emptive nuclear strikes are possible without immediate unleashing of MAD upon the entirety of the West.
Out of necessity, Russia and China have banded together and created a new nation. It’s a United Asia. Other nations are drifiting towards it. For now, you can consider it to be similiar to the USA, or the EU in unity.
Presently, the comprehensive document is only between Russia and China. However, Iran is interested in generating similiar agreements, and India is working towards joining the block as well.
That’s 70% of the world’s population.
85% of the world’s manufacturing.
65-70% of the world’s energy resources.
All of the rest of the nations in Asia are moving towards this group.
It’s a new nation.
And the Untied States (and it’s proxy nations) are pretending that this is not the case. They are pretending that they can treat China separately from Russia, India from Russia, Iran from China, and so on and so forth.
They cannot face the reality; the truth.
So, without plans and “expert” guidance from RAND, the United States (leading the West) are still following the same tired-old “take over the world” script written decades ago, and implementing the plans set forth. (Follow the links for the RAND plans to initiate war. When you read them, you will discover that the US government has been following them to the letter.)
These plans have been telegraphed, and well understood by the Russian and Chinese leadership. And since the United States is following that old script, they are easy to anticipate and handle.
However, the unifed Russia and China block was unexpected, and it doesn not fit in with the plan. So the way that the United States has decided to handle this issue is to IGNORE IT and pretend that this reality does not exist.
They will continue their assaults and probing actions.
Now it’s Russia. Russia has issued strike orders, and telegraphed them to the West, but you know, eventually they will engage China, and when that happens, China WILL ENGAGE THEM RIGHT BACK. Unlike Russia, China will not telegraph any warning.
It will be on American soil, by the way. It will not be so nice.
You can find more articles related to this in my latest index; A New Beginning. And in it are elements of the old, some elements regarding the transition, and some elements that look towards the future.
It’s an exciting time. If you can ignore the howls of fright, and fear, from the oligarchy in the United States you can clearly see that the world is uniting and coming together. Roadblocks have been set aside. nations are unifying, sharing resources, and working together for the mutual benefit of all. And it’s long overdue.
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Key to this is the BRI. And all the nations that are connected to the BRI will profit handsomely. But here (in this article) we will concentrate on the main lines or corridors between the big three; Russia, China and Iran. Of course, everyone else near by stands to profit and benefit from all of this. Indeed, it’s a real exciting time.
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Here’s some “meat” as to what the BRI contains. Noting that much is still left out, the roads, the bridges, the tunnels, the high-speed rail lines, and the local community infrastructure. Indeed the scope of the BRI project is vast, just vast. It’s sort of like a major effort to go to the moon, kind of “vast”.
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The following is an article titled “How Eurasia will be interconnected”. I was written by Pepe Escobar. I edited it to fit this venue, and all credit to the author. You also might want to visit the UNZ where most of his articles reside and where there are many other articles of great interest.
The extraordinary confluence between the signing of the Iran-China strategic partnership deal and the “Ever Given” saga in the Suez Canal is bound to spawn a renewed drive to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and all interconnected corridors of Eurasia integration.
"Ever Given" saga in the Suez Canal
EverGiven is one of the largest container ships in the world. The ship is owned by Shoei Kisen Kaisha, and is time chartered and operated by container transportation and shipping company Evergreen Marine, headquartered in Luzhu District, Taoyuan City, Taiwan.
In April 2021, it blocked the Suez Canal for days leading onto weeks, and put a halt to most sea-traffic using the canal.
Iran-China strategic partnership
The Iran-China bilateral 25-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was signed in Tehran by foreign ministers Javad Zarif and Wang Yi on 27 March 2021.
While specific details of the agreement are unknown, the joint statement released on signing refers to strengthening political and parliamentary ties, the recognition and pursuit of mutual strategic interests, increased cooperation in defense training, equipment, technology, and intelligence, increased cooperation in counterterrorism and counter-narcotics, and expanded economic ties, especially in finance, mining, energy, agriculture, and infrastructure.
Infrastructure includes ports and railway networks and is linked to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
This is the most important geoeconomic development in Southwest Asia in ages – even more crucial than the geopolitical and military support to Damascus by Russia since 2015.
Multiple overland railway corridors across Eurasia featuring cargo trains crammed with freight (the most iconic of which is arguably Chongqin-Duisburg) are a key plank of BRI. In a few years, this will all be conducted on high-speed rail.
The chongqing duisburg railway.
ChinaandEurope: Reconnecting Across a New Silk Roaddigitalrepository.trincoll.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1129&context=facpub
Chongqing Duisburg BELARUS GERMANY POLAND Venice Athens GEORGIA ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN Colombo TRANS-EURASIA RAILROADThe 11,179-kilometre rail line is the most important connection to Europe.
Launched in 2011 by a joint venture with Germany, China, Kazakhstan, and Russia, the rail goes from the city of Chongqing in southwestern China to Duisburg,Germany.
The key overland corridor is Xinjiang-Kazakhstan. (As shown in the map below.)
And then onwards to Russia and beyond outbound to Europe.
The other overland corridor traverses Central Asia and Iran, all the way to Turkey, the Balkans and Eastern Europe. It may take time – in terms of volume – to compete with maritime routes, but the substantial reduction in shipping time is already propelling a massive cargo surge.
The Iran-China strategic connection is bound to accelerate all interconnected corridors leading to and crisscrossing Southwest Asia.
A visual comparison of maritime travel compared to rail travel.
Crucially, multiple BRI trade connectivity corridors are directly linked to establishing alternative routes to oil and gas transit, controlled or “supervised” by the Hegemon since 1945: Suez, Malacca, Hormuz, Bab al Mandeb.
HegemonyHegemony (UK:, US:) is the political, economic, or military predominance or control of one state over others.
In ancient Greece (8th century BC – 6th century AD), hegemony denoted the politico-military dominance of a city-state over other city-states. The dominant state is known as the hegemon.
In the 19th century, hegemony came to denote the "Social or cultural predominance or ascendancy; predominance by one group within a society or milieu". Later, it could be used to mean "a group or regime which exerts undue influence within a society".
Also, it could be used for the geopolitical and the cultural predominance of one country over others, from which was derived hegemonism, as in the idea that the Great Powers meant to establish European hegemony over Africa, Asia and Latin America.-Wikipedia
Black Ops for the Ever Given Blockage in the Suez Canal?
Informal conversations with Persian Gulf traders have revealed huge skepticism about the foremost reason for the Ever Given saga.
The Ever Given, the 200,000-ton cargo ship that became stuck in the Suez Canal on March 23, was finally freed Monday after blocking the waterway for nearly a week, according to the Associated Press. The ship garnered international media attention and has become the subject of online conspiracy theories.
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Merchant marine pilots agree that winds in a desert storm were not enough to harass a state of the art mega-container ship equipped with very complex navigation systems.
The pilot error scenario, induced or not, is being seriously considered.
Then there’s the predominant shoptalk: stalled Ever Given was…
No wonder cynics, addressing the whole episode, are asking, Cui Bono?
Cui BonoCui bono? (Classical Latin: [kui̯ ˈbɔnoː]), in English "to whom is it a benefit?", is a Latin phrase about identifying crime suspects.
Itexpresses the view that crimes are often committed to benefit their perpetrators, especially financially. Which party benefits may not be obvious, and there may be a scapegoat.
-Wikipedia
Persian Gulf traders, in hush hush mode, also drop hints about the project for Haifa to eventually become the main port in the region. This would be in close cooperation with the Emirates. It would connect via a railway to be built between Jabal Ali in Dubai to Haifa, bypassing Suez.
Back to facts on the ground, the most interesting short-term development is how Iran’s oil and gas may be shipped to Xinjiang via the Caspian Sea and Kazakhstan – using a to-be-built Trans-Caspian pipeline.
Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCP) is a proposed pipeline which would transport gas from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan across the Caspian sea via an undersea pipeline.[1] It is also known as the South Caucasus Pipeline Future Expansion (SCPFX), due to its connection with the South Caucasus Gas Pipeline. It is similar to the proposed Trans-Caspian 2 Gas Pipeline.
In May 2019 a pre-FEED (front end engineering and design) study began for a plan to build two Trans-Caspian pipelines. The first pipeline would follow an expanded SGC route (South Caucasus Pipeline, Tanap and Tap) to a final destination of Italy. The Trans-Caspian 2 Gas Pipeline would follow the White Stream route from the Georgian coast, entering the EU in Romania and reaching western Europe via existing pipelines in Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Slovakia and onwards.
- Global Fossil Infrastructure Tracker, a project of Global Energy Monitor
That falls right into classic BRI territory.
Actually more than that, because Kazakhstan is a partner not only of BRI but also the Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).
From Beijing’s point of view, Iran is also absolutely essential for the development of a land corridor from the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea and further to Europe via the Danube.
It’s obviously no accident that the Hegemon is on high alert in all points of this trade corridor…
“Maximum pressure” sanctions and hybrid war against Iran;
An attempt to manipulate the Armenia-Azerbaijan war;
The post-color revolution environment in both Georgia and Ukraine – which border the Black Sea;
NATO’s overarching shadow over the Balkans;
It’s all part of the plot.
Now get me some Lapis Lazuli
Another fascinating chapter of Iran-China concerns Afghanistan.
According to Tehran sources, part of the strategic agreement deals with Iran’s area of influence in Afghanistan and the evolution of still another connectivity corridor all the way to Xinjiang.
And here we go back to the always intriguing Lapis Lazuli corridor – which was conceptualized in 2012, initially for increased connectivity between Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.
Lapis Lazuli corridor
LapisLazuliisan international transit route openedin 2018 linking Afghanistan toTurkeyviaTurkmenistan, Azerbaijan andGeorgia. The name “Lapis Lazuli” isderived from the historic route that Afghanistan'slapislazuliand other semiprecious stones were exported along, over 2,000 years ago, to the Caucasus, Russia, the Balkans, Europe, and North Africa along the ancient Silk Road. The initiative will serve to reinforce the Afghan Government's Infrastructure and Connectivity Development, Energy, and Private Sector Development National Priority Programs. The Lapis Lazuli corridor is funded by the Asian Development Bank. Currently, the transit project’s budget is estimated at $2 billion.-Wikipedia
Lapis Lazuli, wonderfully evocative, harks back to the export of an array of semiprecious stones via the Ancient Silk Roads to the Caucasus, Russia, the Balkans and North Africa.
Now the Afghan government sees the ambitious 21st century remix as…
Departing from Herat (a key area of Persian influence),
Continuing to the Caspian Sea port of Turkmenbashi in Turkmenistan,
Via a Trans-Caspian pipeline to Baku,
Onwards to Tblisi,
And through the Georgian ports of Poti and Batumi in the Black Sea,
And finally connected to Kars and Istanbul.
This is really serious business; a drive that may potentially link the Eastern Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean.
Since Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan signed the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea in 2018, in the Kazakh port of Aktau…
…what’s interesting is that their major issues are now discussed at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where Russia and Kazakhstan are full members.
Iran will soon be;
Azerbaijan is a dialogue partner;
and Turkmenistan is a permanent guest.
Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea ...Publish Year: 2019
Author: Rizal Abdul Kadir
Published: Apr 25, 2019
After twenty-two years of negotiations, in Aktau on August 12, 2018, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, and Turkmenistan signed the Convention onthe Legal Status of the Caspian Sea. The preamble of the Convention stipulates, amongother things, that the Convention, made up of twenty-four articles, was agreed on by the five states based on principles and norms of the Charter of theUnited Nations and International Law.
The Iranian Caspian Sea Canal
Construction of a navigable channel linking the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf is underway. It is expected the project will be completed in the 2020s.
The project is particularly interesting for Russia due to the cold spell with Turkey, but European and post-Soviet states will also benefit from it.
But it seems the US is worried about this alternative to the Suez Channel.
"The West and Turkey have directly or indirectly tried to block the waterway [from being created]. As a matter of fact, the United States imposed sanctions" on companies that have been involved in the project, economic analyst Alexei Chickin wrote.
-Sputnik News
One of the key connectivity problems to be addressed is the viability of building a canal from the Caspian Sea to Iran’s shores in the Persian Gulf.
Another issue is the imperative transition towards container cargo transport in the Caspian.
In SCO terms, that will…
Increase Russian trade with India via Iran
As well as offering an extra corridor for China trade with Europe.
Now, with Azerbaijan prevailing over Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh flare up…
…while finally sealing a deal with Turkmenistan over their respective status in the Caspian Sea…
… impetus for the western part of Lapis Lazuli is now in the cards.
The eastern part is a much more complicated affair, involving an absolutely crucial issue now on the table not only for Beijing but for the SCO: the integration of Afghanistan to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
And then…
In late 2020, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan agreed to build what analyst Andrew Korybko delightfully described as the PAKAFUZ railway. PAKAFUZ will be a key step to expand CPEC to Central Asia, via Afghanistan. Russia is more than interested.
This can become a classic case of the evolving BRI-EAEU melting pot.
Crunch time – serious decisions included – will happen this summer, when Uzbekistan plans to host a conference called “Central and South Asia: Regional Interconnectedness. Challenges and Opportunities”.
So everything will be proceeding interconnected:
A Trans-Caspian link;
The expansion of CPEC;
Af-Pak connected to Central Asia;
An extra Pakistan-Iran corridor (via Balochistan, including the finally possible conclusion of the IP gas pipeline) all the way to Azerbaijan and Turkey;
With China deeply involved in all these projects.
Beijing will be building roads and pipelines in Iran, including one to ship Iranian natural gas to Turkey.
Iran-China, in terms of projected investment, is nearly ten times more ambitious than CPEC.
Call it CIEC (China-Iran Economic Corridor).
In a nutshell: the Chinese and Persian civilization-states are on the road to emulate the very close relationship they enjoyed during the Silk Road-era Yuan dynasty in the 13th century.
INSTC or bust
An extra piece of the puzzle concerns how the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) will mix with BRI and the EAEU.
Iran, Russia and India have been discussing the intricacies of this 7,200 km-long ship/rail/road trade corridor since 2002.
INSTC technically starts in Mumbai and goes all the way via the Indian Ocean to Iran, the Caspian Sea, and then to Moscow.
As a measure of its appeal, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Oman, and Syria are all INSTC members.
Much to the delight of Indian analysts, INSTC reduces transit time from West India to Western Russia from 40 to 20 days, while cutting costs by as much as 60%.
It’s already operational.
But not yet as a continuous, free flow sea and rail link.
New Delhi already spent $500 million on a crucial project: the expansion of Chabahar port in Iran, which was supposed to become its entry point for a made in India Silk Road to Afghanistan and onward to Central Asia.
But then it all got derailed by New Delhi’s flirting with the losing United States “Quad” proposition.
Mike Pompeo (USA) with Subrahmanyam Jaishankar (India).
.
India also invested $1.6 billion in a railway between Zahedan, the key city in southeast Iran, and the Hajigak iron/steel mining in central Afghanistan.
This all falls into a possible Iran-India free trade agreement which is being negotiated since 2019 (for the moment, on stand-by).
Iran and Russia already clinched a similar agreement.
And India wants the same with the EAEU as a whole.
Following the Iran-China strategic partnership, chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Mojtaba Zonnour, has already hinted that the next step should be an Iran-Russia strategic cooperation deal, privileging…
What Moscow is already seriously considering is to build a canal between the Caspian and the Sea of Azov, north of the Black Sea. Meanwhile, the already built Caspian port of Lagan is a certified game-changer.
Thisisbecause one of the twocanals connecting the Caspian Sea to the outside worldistheVolga–Don Canal, which links the Caspian Sea with the Sea of Azov. Russia hasused the Volga–Don Canal to move warships between the Caspian Sea andtheSea of Azov.
-Russian dominancein the Black Sea: TheSeaofAzov
Volga–Don Canal.
Lagan directly connects with multiple BRI nodes.
There’s rail connectivity to the Trans-Siberian all the way to China.
Across the Caspian, connectivity includes Turkmenbashi in Turkmenistan and Baku in Azerbaijan, which is the starting point of the BTK railway through to the Black Sea and then all the way from Turkey to Europe.
On the Iranian stretch of the Caspian, Amirabad port links to the INSTC, Chabahar port and further on to India. It’s not an accident that several Iranian companies, as well China’s Poly Group and China Energy Engineering Group International want to invest in Lagan.
What we see in play here is Iran at the center of a maze progressively interconnected with Russia, China and Central Asia.
When the Caspian Sea is finally linked to international waters, we will see a de facto alternative trade/transport corridor to Suez.
Himalaya Silk Road
Post-Iran-China, it’s not far-fetched anymore to even consider the possible emergence in a not too distant future of a Himalaya Silk Road uniting BRICS members China and India (think, for instance, of the power of Himalayan ice converging into a shared Hydropower Tunnel).
Himalaya Silk Road to the BRI.
.
As it stands, Russia is very much focused on limitless possibilities in Southwest Asia, as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made it clear in the 10thMiddle East conference at the Valdai club.
The Hegemon’s treats on multiple fronts – Ukraine, Belarus, Syria, Nord Stream 2 – pale in comparison.
21st Century Geopolitics
The new architecture of 21st century geopolitics is already taking shape, with China providing multiple trade corridors for non-stop economic development…
…while Russia is the reliable provider of energy and security goods, as well as the conceptualizer of a Greater Eurasia home…
… with “strategic partnership” Sino/Russian diplomacy playing the very long game.
Southwest Asia and Greater Eurasia have already seen which way the (desert) winds are blowing.
And soon will the masters of international capital. Russia, China, Iran, India, Central Asia, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Korean Peninsula, everyone will experience a capital surge – financial vultures included.
Following the Greed is Good gospel, Eurasia is about to become the ultimate Greed frontier.
…if left unencumbered.
The United States has a say…
The problem with the BRI is that it links Europe to Russia, Persia and China and permits local currency use instead of the USD and oceanic maritime trade. Over a period of time, the value of the USD will decrease due to it no longer being the global currency, and in order to maintain it’s value the United States would have to revert back tot he “gold standard”.
Which shouldn’t be a problem. Right?
I’m sure that the United States has 30 trillion dollars worth of gold stashed here and there. Somewhere. <\sarcasm>
Of course, it is in the best interests of the United States to prevent any kind of prosperity, or changes at any level from occurring in Asia. Any and all changes will have a negative effect on America at all levels. The only way that America can maintain it’s “rules based hegemony” (The USA makes the rules, and you either follow them or be destroyed) is for it to be the dominant and preeminent ruling structure on the globe.
Here is a couple of links to thorough, in-depth analysis </sarcasm> of this situation from America;
Nah. They pretty much say the same tired old thing. China is doing this because it is evil and wants to ensnare the world like a spider trapping a fly in it’s web. Yada, yada, yada.
The only way to stop this is militarily
And that, in itself open up a “whole can of worms”.
Rick0Sheaon April 10, 2021 · at 5:56 pm EST/EDT
I watched an excellent documentary on war a fews years ago. They talked about wars going back thousands of years to the present. When an army is going to attack, all the plans and logistics are carefully put in place. Once all the preparations have been made the only thing left is to trigger it off. The instigators do not want to be seen as the aggressors so they fabricate (false flag) something so they claim they were attacked first — and off they go. The war they planned and wanted so bad is underway.The Russian military would see all this unfolding – it’s on rails. But what could they do? The USA won’t be deterred. The only way this could have been avoided that I can see is that if the USA feared a nuclear war with Russia to the extent they would not take such ridiculously dangerous chance.
Here’s a great article by John Paul Roberts that is certainly worth a read regarding the sum total of military options that the USA has…
In Continuation of a Conversation with Paul Craig Roberts
Andrei Martyanov • April 7, 2021
.
Here are few numbers, we’ll start with two: 447 million and 4.67 billion. These two numbers speak volumes, and are in the foundation of the America’s decline and increasingly irrational behavior which may, quoting Bachman Turner Overdrive’s famous hit, get us to the point of a proverbial ain’t seen nothing yet.
The first number is a population of European Union, while the second one is a population of Asia.
Second place in this count is taken by Africa, around 1.37 billion, and the third–by Latin America and Caribbean with respectable 659 million which is considerably larger still than the population of the European Union. The Northern America’s population is around 371 million, which in the larger scheme of things doesn’t look that impressive. In fact, it isn’t.
The history of colonialism—I deliberately omit here this qualifier “Western”, there were all kinds of colonialisms—as related to classic capitalism was more than just about exploitation of colonies for the benefit of metropole.
While images of extraction of natural resources from colonies and shipping those to metropoles are correct, they do not form a complete picture.
In the end, colonies were viewed as markets where metropole would sell its products. The larger the colony, the more numerous its population was, the larger was the market for products manufactured in metropole.
This all made a complete, however often bloody, economic sense in the times of a good ol’ industrial capitalism when metropole would get resources from colony and turn them into finished product and then will ship this finished product, with a huge value added, to be sold in colony.
For Native Americans who sold Manhattan to Dutch in 1626 for allegedly, and hotly contested by historians, $24 worth in finished goods, whatever was offered was a huge value for them because they could not produce those items, be that, as mythology states, shiny glass bids or whatever else much more technologically advanced Dutch would offer them.
That is how it worked more or less for centuries.
The more and better items one produced the richer one would become.
That is until FIRE economy and simulacrum of the post-industrialism were revealed to the world by people most of who would have difficulty passing a general contractor exam, not to speak of getting industrial engineering degree.
FIRE economyA FIRE economy is any economy based primarily on the finance, insurance, and real estate sectors.
Finance, insurance, and real estate are United States Census Bureau classifications. Barry Popik describes some early uses as far back as 1982. Since 2008, the term has been commonly used by Michael Hudson and Eric Janszen.
It is New York City's largest industry and a prominent part of the service industry in the United States overall economy and other Western developed countries.
-Wikipedia
Fast forward to May 2000 to the passage of House Resolution 4444 China Trade Bill. In one of the most profoundly mindless and ignorant statements of America’s foreign and economic policy, Bill Clinton proclaimed that:
“Today the House of Representatives has taken an historic step toward continued prosperity in America, reform in China and peace in the world. If the Senate votes as the House has just done, to extend permanent normal trade relations with China, it will open new doors of trade for America and new hope for change in China. Seven years ago, when I became president, I charted a new course for a new economy—a course of fiscal discipline, investment in our people and open trade. I have always believed that by opening markets abroad we open opportunities at home. We’ve worked hard to advance that goal of more open and more fair trade since 1993, all the way up to the landmark legislation I signed just a few days ago to expand trade with Africa and the Caribbean Basin.”
Cringeworthy in its sheer falsity and insufferable pathos…
…the economic equivalent of Chamberlain’s “Peace in Our Time” 1938 proclamation, after signing the Munich capitulation to Hitler…
…Clinton’s declaration rattled even those who otherwise wouldn’t even pay much attention to the economic affairs of the United States.
China, wasn’t upset; why would it be?
Both NAFTA and China’s accession to the WTO served as a massive vacuum cleaner sucking the life from American industries and, to be sure, these weren’t banking or financial consulting “industries” which were being shipped abroad.
American manufacturing started to leave its own shores.
America started to lose its only tool which was and even today remains the only valid mean to an end of economic prosperity—manufacturing capacity.
A concept which is beyond the grasp of most American economists and political pseudo-scientists most of who today wear Chinese tailored suits, carry iPhones manufactured in China and use laptops and PCs assembled there as well.
To be sure, America still produces some things—civilian aircraft, as an example.
But since the whole Boeing 737 Max affair, which can only be described in strongest profanity, the shining from the polished outward façade of Boeing is largely gone and the stalwart of the American commercial aviation has de facto lost competition to its EU rival Airbus.
Cars?
Sure. America still remains competitive at manufacturing trucks.
The rest?
America’s sedans are not competitive and lose out to Japanese and Korean car makers both domestically and internationally, enough to take a look at Ford losing Russian market to Asian, Russian and EU automakers, with the last Ford Focus plant closed in Russia recently.
In other, rather startling development, America’s main soft power export, Hollywood is losing its piercing power in China and in Russia.
In fact, it is not just losing it, it already lost it.
Hollywood’s “values” of a radical feminism, anti-male misogyny and promotion of the sexual deviancy are hardly in demand in largely conservative Chinese and Russian societies.
Sure, there are some items which the United States manufactures today which are in demand, or, if one gets to the reality of it all, forcefully imposed on customers—America’s hugely overpriced and dubiously effective weapon systems.
This is what remains of once America’s mighty industrial plant which could produce anything from socks and kitchen combines to good combat and excellent commercial aircraft.
Today this capacity is no more, since it is China who is the world’s consumer goods main manufacturer, and the only way the United States is capable to secure any market for its weapons is to retain Europe, NATO that is, as its main customer and vassal.
NATO will gladly (if not, color revolutions are a good tool for convincing those who have doubts) “buy” America’s weapons and “defense” of Europe…
… but America needs Europeans to believe that hordes of democracy-hating, only two-gender accepting, backward bearded Russian Ivans are ready to pounce to deny Europe her favorite values of a complete sexual depravity…
… her cities, also known as dirty multicultural cloacae…
…and declining economy for the reasons only Americans know…
So, to convince those 447 million EU’s residents that they need America’s protection and weapons, America needs Russia to get into the war in Ukraine.
And if it will end up with utter destruction, and it will if Russia really decides so, of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and, likely, Ukrainian statehood, so be it.
Americans never really cared how many aborigines die, as long as it works for the US bottom line.
Or, if one may, a condition of American condition…
… which is deteriorating steadily because not only the United States increasingly has very little of substance, that is of high value added, to sell to the world…
… but forming economic and military monster of Eurasia removes the United States from its (grossly exaggerated to start with), self-proclaimed status of global hegemon…
…to the status of, at best, one of the few big shots on the planet.
At worst, the United States is removed from Eurasia as a viable competitor and is relegated to a status of a regional power…
…still powerful relative to its continental neighbors…
…but not having a shot at this second number of 4.67 billion.
This is a big chunk of population and customers.
Now imagine if the United States loses EU.
Suddenly 4.67 billion become 4.67 billion + 447 million = 5.117 billion, it is 65% of Earth’s population.
It is a huge majority of world’s population and, most importantly, population much of which can pay for goods, unlike it is the case with gigantic population of Africa.
Moreover, this population is concentrated within a single continental mass which is insulated from the United States by two oceans.
The United States cannot allow this consolidation of the market to happen and the loss of Europe, Washington’s thinking goes, is tantamount to capitulation.
So, the United States must hold on to EU, or whatever it will become once EU inevitably collapses, and NATO remains the only tool to drive European weaklings into submission.
Making Russia obliterate Ukrainian Armed Forces is a perfect way to scare Europeans into abandoning any attempts to economically compete with the United States and deny them access to Russia’s energy.
Considering an extremely low level of Western scholarship in the field of practical geopolitics and its pseudo-scientific offspring—geoeconomics…
…which failed for the last 30 years to come up with even the fuzziest description of the emerging world…
… it doesn’t matter if the United States “retains” Europe or not anymore.
The reasons for the utter failure of those “academic” predictions and resulting policies are numerous but few of them are worth focusing on.
Europe is not anymore a crucial trade partner for Russia and mutual trade plummeted in the last few years. The trend will continue and it is not only due to America’s pressure, albeit that too, on EU but is a result of Russia steady change of both economic model and her reorientation towards Asia which is now largely complete. Russia simply doesn’t need anymore many goods she used to buy in the EU. The policy of import substitution on average is a success and Russia economically insulating herself from the West will continue.
A much-discussed pipeline of Nord Stream 2 is, actually, not a crucial economic project for Russia anymore. Russia can absorb losses if the project eventually sabotaged by the United States and its European poodles such as Poland, but for Germany, and EU in general, this sabotage will result in catastrophe, due to European greens’ suicidal energy policies which make European goods costs extremely energy-dependent. In realty, America’s attempts to sabotage Nord Stream 2 are primarily directed against EU in general, and Germany in particular, not against Russia per se.
The United States lost the arms race. America’s weapons acquisition process and military doctrine-mongering cannot be viewed anymore as a normal, that is logical and justified, process. While still being able to produce some state-of-the-art platforms and enablers, such as signal processing, combat computer and communications networks, recon assets, in terms of actual weapons the United States begins to lag behind Russia not just in years but in generations. As recent, February 2021, Congressional Budget Office report on missile defense admitted, the United States is defenseless against salvo of combination of new Russia’s cruise missiles and that there is nothing to stop them. There isn’t. US air defense systems lag behind Russian ones dramatically and the gap only grows with Russia’s S-500 getting into serial production and the latest S-350 already being deployed into the first line units.
The United States simply cannot develop modern supersonic anti-shipping missile and the US Navy is forced, incomprehensibly, to buy Norwegian Kongsberg Naval Strike Missile—an underwhelming subsonic missile which is no match for modern high supersonic and hypersonic strike weapons Russia deploys, and is not survivable in modern air defense and ECM environment.
Lastly, the intellectual level and the level of awareness of modern American elites is in a precipitous decline, which inevitably resulted in the embarrassment of America’s last elections, especially scandalous debate between two geriatric candidates in 2020, which paraded the US as Springeresque tawdry TV show. Resultant loss of a legitimacy and yet another confirmation of the America’s position as a non-agreement capable entity hardly serve as boosters for America’s already tarnished reputation as a big-mouth bully and its elites being uncultured and uneducated.
The United States already fails to meet a number criteria imperative for the status of superpower, among which a military one is crucial.
If some American military “strategists” still exercised a suicidal idea of fighting Russia conventionally in Ukraine in 2014, today in 2021 such an idea is downright mad, because the United States cannot win conventional war in Russia’s vicinity and any US force will be annihilated.
This leaves the United States only two options:
Indeed, believing its own propaganda, try to unleash mayhem in Ukraine, provoke Russia into a direct military operation and then introduce whatever the force US and NATO will muster into the theater of operations. Any such plan is bound to fail miserably because not only such a force will be annihilated but participating NATO nations will face the possibility of their military installations destroyed by stand-off weapons. That raises the possibility of US escalating to nuclear threshold which means that the United States may cease to exists as a country. This is an undesirable plan and majority of US policy makers, bar some severe cases of psychological Russophobic disorders which are numerous in the current Administration and America’s elites, understand what it means. So, while not completely impossible, a probability for such a plan being implemented is fairly low. Not to mention the fact that for the US to fight conventionally around Russia will require assembly of the force which will dwarf whatever was assembled for the First Gulf War. There, the United States had almost 6 months to do so.
So, what’s left realistically is to push Ukraine into the suicidal campaign with Russia being designated aggressor before even the first shots are fired. What the United States does not recognize is the fact that this unties Russia’s hands who already has an overwhelming escalation dominance not only over Ukraine, but whatever might be attempted in terms of “support” for irrational regime in Kiev. Russia has many options, the United States has one—it needs war in Donbass, which, Washington’s thinking goes, will allow to drive Europeans into submission, which allegedly should allow the United States to save her hegemonic status. It will not even if Europe is driven into submission.
United States today has the only one resource left which allows it to stay relevant—virtual reality of both money “printing” press and of the media propaganda which is increasingly ineffective.
One could hide America’s decrepit cities, mass riots, destruction of the education system, incompetence of political and military top echelons, suicidal social practices and breakdown of law and order, aggravated by huge lines to food banks for only so long.
Now it is in the open and even subjugation of Europe and, allegedly, opening Europe’s markets to those few items the United States can still provide for its clients there…
… does not change the fact that the United States as it exists today has no future with or without Europe…
…and that it still has to recon with China’s immense manufacturing capacity…
…and Russia’s advanced military might…
…which drive unification of the Eurasian market whether the United States unleashes war in Ukraine or not.
Even without EU this market dwarfs whatever the United States will be able to “salvage” in order to avoid relegation to a lower league.
It cannot stop a process which was ongoing for years now…
…once Russia, after, the bloody coup in Ukraine…
… understood that there is nobody to talk too in the combined West…
…which apart from losing its military and economic power…
… started to disintegrate from the inside due to Western societies becoming increasingly totalitarian…
…and unable to face the reality that we still live in the highly industrialized world which needs energy, industrial plant and weapons which will defend them.
Both China and Russia seem to accumulate all that and with it the fate of the United States is sealed.
Bill Clinton may have thought that he “charted the new course for a new economy” in 2000, too bad for him, and the US, the “new economy” turned out to be an old one.
What?
You didn’t think that jeans, smartphones and rocket engines grow on the trees, did you?
But let us go back to the collision of warships. Why would a diversity-admit junior officer open fire on China? Proximately, because he is frightened and panicky. A bit more remotely, because he has been told over and over and over that the Chinese are dangerous and aggressive and want to do terrible things, seldom specified. The military tells them this because you cannot prepare the troops for war by telling them that there is no reason for it.Why would a President allow a war, knowing (if in a lucid moment) that it would produce absolute unshirted havoc in the economy even if it didn’t go nuclear? He wouldn’t. That is, he wouldn’t all at once choose Armageddon. But he couldn’t afford to seem soft on China, not with the midterms looming, so he couldn’t back off. If in the ensuing shootout the Navy got trounced, he most assuredly couldn’t drop the matter, and would have to double down. So, of course, would the Chinese for the same sorts of reasons. Off to the races.Deeper in the forest of causation is that the pathologically aggressive, amoral, manipulative, and crafty tend to rise to power. We select as rulers those who are least fit to rule. In America this is often done a bit differently, with the unscrupulous and powerful choosing cardboard leaders whose strings they can pull. The effect is the same.Why would war seem reasonable? Because Americans have never seen one, and believe their forces to be invincible. If you think that you can’t lose a fight, why avoid one? And because those in comfortable circumstances know that a war in Asia would be fought by the lower economic classes, about whom they care nothing and don’t much like. American elites do not fight. Note the list of draft dodgers during Vietnam: Bush II, Cheney, Bolton, Trump, Biden.These men, knowing almost nothing of the military, war or, very likely, military history, are quickly hijacked mentally by the Pentagon. The firm handshake, the steely gaze, the clean shaven, confident, and patriotic warriors (if only via Powerpoint) are impressive to pols who…well, you know…haven’t done that. They project strength and realism, without necessarily having either. Listening to them, you can easily get a sense of being accepted into a special, manly club. They say that America has the most powerful, invincible, best trained, tra la, tra la, and if you haven’t been there it is easy to believe. The Chinese? A cakewalk. Iran? Coupla weeks.Another reason for easily blundering into a war poorly understood is the very low quality of American government. Congress and the President are chosen by popularity contests, not according to competence. A congressman who worked his way up the political ladder in Wheeling or Baton Rouge knows state politics. He is unlikely to know anything about the first Island Chain or what a terminally guided ballistic missile is. A friend in a position to know estimates that ninety percent of the Senate do not know where Myanmar is. No one without a grasp of geography has more than a child’s understanding of military, economic, or strategic reality. But they vote on these things.Sez I, we are well and truly screwed. But there is little we can do about it.
Conclusion
You all can believe what you want. I know full well what is going on. If China is surrounded by peaceful and successful trading partners, then China will be safe and secure from conflict, invasion or NGO-sponsored “color revolutions”. Like Switzerland, like Germany, like Italy, and like Finland are today. Its a belief in the win-win possibilities of long term planning, cooperation and leadership by merit.
And nations that make physical things, that provide physical services, and that partner for joint success for their peoples will invariably be more successful, and longer lasting than ones that retain their existence on supporting a small patricidal oligarchy leadership that makes nothing of substance, but trades in invisible vapor ideas, and numbers on large elaborate spreadsheets.
But, you know, the United States is ruled by idiots.
And no matter how much we can reason, we can pray, or we can justify our actions and ideas and thoughts, the wildcard of an insane morn like Mike Pompeo with his finger on the military operations is a serious and real danger….
…as opined by this commenter…
A. Daneon April 11, 2021 · at 9:24 am EST/EDTWhat will happen next?
In June, During the NATO exercise Defending Europe 21, the Ukro NAZIs or Turkish controlled head-choppers will launch a falls flag attack.
This could be a chemical weapon launched against Ukrainian soldiers, claiming that the attack was launched by the Donbass militia, and that the chemical weapon was supplied by Russia.
The western MSN will blame Russia for the aggression.
While Russia is busy defending itself against the unjust accusations from the so called international community, the NATO exercise will go live and invade Donbass, claimed as humanitarian intervention.
The only way this can be avoided is if the US really fears a nuclear attack on American soil.
As soon as the first falls flag attack occurs in Ukraine, Russia should launch a nuclear weapon on American soil.
A good target will be the HAARP facility located in desolate Alaska. The facility is operated by the private Global Elite, and hated world wide for its clandestine operations.
When the facility is reduced to rubble, and nuclear radiation is traveling the northern hemisphere via the Jet stream, the western MSN will go into hysteria, calling for a ceasefire.
Mass demonstrations against war and COVID Lock Down will quickly turn into Riots and civil war, devastating every major city in Europe and America.
If the NATO do not stop its invasion of Donbass by then:
Russia will send missiles against every NATO Command center located in Ukraine and Poland.
And then hell will break loose:
China will attack US Navy vessels in the South China Sea and invade Taiwan.
North Korea will attack South Korea.
Nationalist in Japan will attack US deployments in Japan.
The Philippines will attack US assets like Al Qaeda in the region and invade Indonesia.
The Taliban will attack US and NATO deployments in Afghanistan.
India will enter into war with Pakistan.
Iraq will attack the US deployment in Bagdad, and northern Iraq.
Iran will attack US-NATO vessels in the Gulf, ending all oil supply to the west.
Yemen will attack Saudi Arabia.
Somalia will attack all ships in the bay of Aden.
Egypt will close the Suez Canal.
Syria will launch an attack against Turkish troops in Northern Syria.
Russia will shoot down every Fighter jet and drone entering Syrian airspace.
Lebanon will attack Israeli forces in the Golan.
Hezbola will attack Israel from Gaza.
Libya will launch attacks against Turkish troops in Libya.
Armenia will launch major attack against Turkish forces in eastern Anatolia.
Greece will attack Turkish transgression of Greek airspace and Turkish vessels near Cyprus.
Civil war will erupt in the Balkan, Serbia will retake Kosovo, and enter war with Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Civil war will erupt in Spain, and Catalonia will secede from Madrid.
Paris will enter into chaos, and Macron will flee.
Al-Qaeda will launch a major attack on French troop in West Africa.
Venezuela will attack US navy vessels in the Caribbean sea.
Argentina will invade the Falkland Islands.
American Patriots will storm Washington for real. The National Guard protecting DC will defect.
CIA and FBI Agent will be hunted down by American Patriots. Many states will secede from the US.
Most western government will be forced to step down. The EU and NATO will disintegrate.
All Nordic Nations will enter into a Nordic defense Alliance.
As the American Fascist Empire collapses, the multi polar world will be reborn.
Do you want more?
I have more posts in my BRI sub-index within my China index…
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From 2016 through 2019, the United States under the guidance and direction of Donald Trump was enmeshed in trade negotiations with China. For most of that time, the negotiations were rocky and a period of discord and confusion reigned. Things become worrisome, and as a result, the world economy went into a recession and things began to take on a very gloomy outlook.
Then, in October of 2019, it was announced that the trade talks were resolved and that Phase One of the trade negotiations would be implemented. Here we discuss these issues, trends and the related affairs that colored this sequence of events.
There is a lot to learn here, as it involves diplomacy, expectations, society, culture, manufacturing, the global environment, and industry. Rather than look at it from the simplistic black-and-white “cardboard cutout” of how it is presented in the American media, let’s look at it in detail. It’s a very interesting study of the affairs of men and nations.
We will start with a recap.
A Brief Historical Recap
The US-China trade dispute erupted publicly in March 2018.
Its origins, however, go back to August 2017, when the Office of US Trade Representative (USTR) issued a preliminary report charging that China’s ‘2025 Plan’ projected passing the US in next generation technology development (5G wireless, Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity).
China’s plan represented a fundamental challenge to US global economic—and military—hegemony next decade, according to the USTR.
Made in China 2025 is a strategic plan of China issued by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and his cabinet in May 2015. With it, China aims to move away from being the world’s “factory” and move to producing higher value products and services. It is in essence a blueprint to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries.
That initial USTR report was followed by a second report released in March 2018. That report concluded and confirmed what the first report had raised. Both reports argued that China represented a threat in nextgen technology development that the US could not ignore.
Dr. Christopher Ashley Ford, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, gave a speech at the Multilateral Action on Sensitive Technologies (MAST) Conference, in which he explained that “countries that choose Huawei technology are opening the door to Chinese access to their domestic networks and local companies, as well as potential surveillance by Chinese officials, posing a potential threat to their national security and economic well-being.”
- State Department Highlights Chinese Technology Threats
The trade war with China only then commenced, with Trump imposing an initial $50 billion in tariffs on China imports.
An initial tentative agreement was reached between the main negotiators, the US team led at the time by US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, in May 2018.
But you know, that tentative deal was quickly scuttled. The kibosh was put on it and it was shit-canned.
Neocons aborting the plan 1.
This is because US neocons, China hardliners, Pentagon, and the US Military Industrial Complex and friends in Congressional defense appropriations committees organized their forces and got Trump to nix the deal.
The scuttled deal included some serious concessions by China. That included [1] China agreeing to buy $1 trillion more in US farm goods over five years and [2] agreeing to allow US banks and financial institutions to have 51% ownership control of their operations in China.
These are really big deals.
But, the neocons would not have any of that. They wanted to rule the world and wouldn’t give an inch any way in any manner. Only America will be in charge. Only America can rule, tell other nations how to live and define the trade agreements. And if war is necessary to put other nations “in their place”, then so be it.
China reiterated their earlier (and substantial) concessions over the summer of 2018, but to no avail. The neocons would nave none of it.
The main issue was not the US trade deficit.
Nor IP guarantees.
Nor tech sharing of US companies in China.
Nor even majority ownership of US operations in China.
The main issue was the development of nextgen technologies—AI, 5G, and cyber. US Neocons aligned with the Pentagon-Military Industrial Complex, now led by Robert Lighthizer, the head of the USTR. These neocons did not want any nation to have any kind of technical superiority over America and they would fight it “tooth and nail” and economies, world trade, and prosperity be damned!
America MUST be number one, or nothing.
NOTHING!
Other notable neocons included Peter Navarro, special trade adviser to Trump.
Not to forget the largest neocon of them all, John Bolton, who demanded China slow, and even share its nextgen technology development with the US, or else no deal!
"We want your technology and you WILL give it to us.
If you don't well, we will put every pressure possible on you. And, oh by the way, don't think that we are not capable of planting swine flu to destroy all your pork products, launch revolutions and unrest in your cities, and maybe even sink a few ships if that's what it take to put you all in your place.America is the biggest, the best and the most powerful. Never forget that."
Seriously!
Negotiations stalled thereafter as Trump turned his focus to the NAFTA 2.0 negotiations and the 2020 midterm elections approached.
Six months burned away, and the trade negotiations, were dead in the water. The neocons convinced president Trump to “hold fast”, that China is still a third-rate nation and that the trade “wars” are sending China back twenty years.
But they were deluding themselves.
All the signs pointed to a reality that was at odds with American perceptions. Indeed, the Chinese had many “cards up their sleeves” and many of the assumptions that American advisors had on China were simply not true.
What’s worse, the American people started to notice this.
Negotiations were restarted in January 2019 after the midterm elections, and another five months of negotiations between the parties took place until another tentative deal was reached in May 2019.
Neocons aborting the plan 2.
That tentative deal once again was blown up at the last minute by the Lighthizer-Navarro neocon faction now in control of negotiations, with Mnuchin in tow as a co-chair.
That tentative deal once again was blown up at the last minute by the Lighthizer-Navarro neocon faction now in control of negotiations, with Mnuchin in tow as a co-chair.
As the China delegation prepared to come to the US to sign off in May 2019, the US raised new additional demands:
[1] China had to share its nextgen technology development with the US.
[2] China to cease subsidizing its state owned enterprises.
[3] China to provide assurances it would not devalue its currency to offset US tariffs (which now totaled $200 billion).
[4] The existing US tariffs would remain in effect even if an agreement were reached. They would not be removed.
These were the new terms, “Too bad” they said.
All these demands were publicly communicated in the week prior to the May 2019 meeting in Washington D.C. when the deal was scheduled to be signed off.
It seems like they were totally and wholly devoted to terminating the deal, rather than trying to find some common ground from which to negotiate to in good faith.
Neocons aborting the plan 3.
Understandably, the China delegation came and returned home in a day.
The Neocons had scuttled a deal once again. Nextgen technology was the crux. Either China capitulated on nextgen tech or there was no deal, according to the Neocon-Pentagon position.
The Neocons had scuttled a deal once again. Nextgen technology was the crux. Either China capitulated on nextgen tech or there was no deal, according to the Neocon-Pentagon position.
Trump thereafter met China president, Xi, in Osaka Japan at the G20 meeting. They both agreed once again to restart negotiations. Both also agreed to keep a hold on the level of existing tariffs and not raise them further in the meantime.
But Trump broke the pledge in late July 2019.
On the advice of his neocon trade negotiators, he raised tariffs on the remaining $250 billion of China imports. The understanding with Xi not to raise more tariffs was thus shattered.
China raised tariffs of its own on US goods in response.
On the advice of his neocon trade negotiators, he raised tariffs on the remaining $250 billion of China imports. The understanding with Xi not to raise more tariffs was thus shattered. China raised tariffs of its own on US goods in response.
Trump threatened to raise existing tariffs by another 5%, to 25% and 30%, and levy more on all the remaining China imports in December 2019.
The trade war was intensifying.
China took steps to stabilize the situation. China stopped intervening briefly in global money markets to prevent its currency, the Yuan, from devaluing and allowed it to fall 5%-7%–a move that essentially negated Trump’s additional 5% tariff hike.
China stopped intervening briefly in global money markets to prevent its currency, the Yuan, from devaluing and allowed it to fall 5%-7%–a move that essentially negated Trump’s additional 5% tariff hike.
Stock and bond markets plummeted on the mere prospect of a trade war now morphing into a currency war. The trade war, based mostly on tariff hikes, was about to expand the economic conflict beyond mere tariff measures.
Uh oh!
It will be the USD (inflated with mountains of debt) against a rising currency the yuan (that represents the bulk of world wide manufacturing).
Tariffs were already slowing the global economy. A currency war would quickly spread beyond US and China and inject even more instability into the already slowing global economy.
Both China and Trump peered over the cliff of a pending broader economic war between the two economies—and then backed off.
Both China and Trump peered over the cliff of a pending broader economic war between the two economies—and then backed off.
This continued all Summer until September 2019.
Fast forward, the outcome by September 2019 was yet another resumption of negotiations between the two parties, followed by the announcement of a ‘Phase 1’ deal on trade.
So why did Trump ‘stand down’ and agree to a deal now, after escalating his threats and actions over the summer?
The reasons pointed to American problems as a result of the “trade dispute”. You see, America was not as robust as the government would like everyone to believe. Thus, clearly it had to do with [1] the US economy softening in the 3rd quarter combined with [2] a growing discontent in the farm sector. This discontent is over Trump’s handling of the trade dispute that was beginning to bite hard on US farm sector sales. You see, American farmers were heavily dependent on exports to China.
The reasons clearly have to do with [1] the US economy softening in the 3rd quarter combined with [2] a growing discontent in the farm sector. This discontent is over Trump’s handling of the trade dispute that was beginning to bite hard on US farm sector sales. You see, American farmers were heavily dependent on exports to China.
As the trade dispute between the countries had intensified over 2018-19, Trump had placated farm interests by providing an extra $28 billion in direct farm subsidies.
But it wasn’t enough.
According to some sources, no fewer than 12,000 farms went bankrupt in 2018 alone. The $28 billion was going mostly to agribusiness and not getting down to independent farmers who needed it most.
According to some sources, no fewer than 12,000 farms went bankrupt in 2018 alone. The $28 billion was going mostly to agribusiness and not getting down to independent farmers who needed it most.
Farm sector trade associations were demanding Trump settle the trade dispute and their voices grew louder after the August escalation between the US and China.
"This trade war of YOURS is killing US. Please stop it, resolve it, or do whatever it takes, and do it soon. You are killing us!"
So too were other notable business groups, like the US Chamber of Commerce and Business Roundtable, raising their complaints about the now rapid deterioration of the negotiations.
"I thought that we would come to a mutually fair and agreeable trade agreement. Not one that is contentious, where we are making all the demands, and forcing China into a corner in which they will never agree to. This is not only stupid in the short term, but unwise in the long term. STOP POKING THE PANDA BEAR!"
So too were other notable business groups, like the US Chamber of Commerce and Business Roundtable, raising their complaints about the now rapid deterioration of the negotiations.
The trade war was beginning to clearly impact general business investment and manufacturing in the Midwest US, and not only in the US but worldwide.
The entire global economy started to slow affecting everything and everyone.
US business investment on new plant and equipment turned negative in the 2nd quarter and promised to continue to slump, while business inventory investment was also being pared. If actions wouldn’t reverse, the entire “deck of cards” could go “belly up”.
On January 8 the World Bank released its report Global Economic Prospects, which confirmed what most people had suspected all along. The World Bank estimates global economic growth to decelerate by 0.1 percentage points in 2019, and the decline could continue well into 2020 as well.
Part of this could be attributed to the Donald Trump factor — free trade is being threatened like never before. However, it is also because the world has been awash in cash after 2008. Any attempt to bring back financial sobriety will mean a bit of belt-tightening, and hence an inevitable slowdown.
The trade war was beginning to impact beyond the farm sector.
By August the US manufacturing sector began to contract, joining what had now become a global manufacturing recession.
Moreover, at the end of August it was also beginning to appear that the manufacturing contraction in the US was potentially spilling over to the larger services sector.
While manufacturing PMIs were contracting in the US, the even larger Services sector PMI had begun to decelerate sharply in terms of growth rate.
Chase bank research was estimating that, with the new Trump tariffs on China consumer good imports set for September and December, consumer spending would be reduced on average by no less than $1,000 per household.
Of equal concern, the new round of Trump tariffs on consumer goods now threatened to slow US consumer spending—the only sector of the economy still holding up in terms of growth. If it does in fact impede growth, there could be disastrous consequences for America, Americans the reelection chances of Donald Trump.
"A key measure of consumer spending unexpectedly dropped for the first time in seven months in September, raising concerns about one of the brightest spots in the US economy.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday retail sales fell 0.3% last month, the first decline since February and compared with a 0.6% rise in August. Retail sales account for more than two-thirds of economic output.
Consumer activity, along with hiring, has propelled an economy that has been otherwise roiled by a trade dispute between the Trump administration and China."
Chase bank research was estimating that, with the new Trump tariffs on China consumer good imports set for September and December, consumer spending would be reduced on average by no less than $1,000 per household.
It was this growing economic slowdown in the US—combined with the growing political discontent in the farm sector and from other major non-farm business organizations—that pushed Trump to concede to the Phase 1 deal.
President Donald Trump’s trade war provided the kind of real-world experiment that practitioners of the dismal science so desperately crave, but the results weren’t all that different from what their econometric models predict. In a new paper, “The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare,” economists Mary Amiti of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Stephen J. Redding of Princeton University and David Weinstein of Columbia University document what economists have told us for decades: that tariffs are a tax on the consumer.
Trump may say, and believe, that “billions of dollars will soon be pouring into our Treasury from taxes that China is paying for us,” but China isn’t paying the taxes. U.S. consumers are. And as for the president’s belief that tariffs will “cure” the nation’s trade deficit, which he sees as a sign of weakness, today’s data suggest otherwise.
The study found that the waves of tariffs throughout 2018 resulted in “substantial increases” in the prices of intermediate and final goods, the cost of which was borne entirely by U.S. consumers. There was little improvement in the “terms of trade,” which means exporters didn’t lower their pre-tariff prices. And the higher price of imports enabled U.S. producers to raise their prices. What’s more, the tariffs introduced inefficiencies by disrupting supply-chain networks. And the customs duties were insufficient to offset the loss to consumers.
Trump’s 2020 election interests had become more paramount than the concerns of the neocons and militarists who were demanding China capitulate on the nextgen tech issue or no deal.
A rapid about face by Trump occurred by late August-early September and China was once again invited to resume talks in Washington in early October.
The content of the Phase 1 deal reached October 11, 2019 reveals that Trump abandoned his ‘big deal or no deal’ position. He retreated from the neocon ‘non negotiable’ demand, that was holding up a deal since May 2018. This demand was that China capitulate on the nextgen tech issue or no trade deal.
The content of the Phase 1 deal reached October 11, 2019 reveals that Trump abandoned his ‘big deal or no deal’ position. He retreated from the neocon ‘non negotiable’ demand, that was holding up a deal since May 2018. This demand was that China capitulate on the nextgen tech issue or no trade deal.
Placating his farm sector political base to get China to resume purchases, and taking China’s 51% ownership concession desperately wanted by US big banks (i.e. the primary demand of the Mnuchin faction on the US negotiating team), became Trump’s new priority demand in Phase 1.
Neocon John Bolton fired.
The nextgen technology issue so critical to the neocons was clearly demoted and removed from the bargaining table by the US.
In Phase 1 China got its ‘partial’ deal—and absent any concessions on the nextgen tech issue. That was left for a Phase 2 or even Phase 3, as Trump put it in his press conference the same day.
Trump’s advisers believe he wants to impose a 25 percent tariff on foreign autos, hoping to raise the cost on foreign competition and persuade U.S. consumers to buy American-made cars. But critics — which include many of his fellow Republicans and even some of his own advisers — caution it could raise costs for consumers and be a disaster for jobs.
Those critics also (unsuccessfully) urged Trump to not put tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, but this time the stakes are far higher.
So far, the president has tariffs on foreign washing machines, solar panels, steel, aluminum and some Chinese-made goods. In total, the tariffs cover about $85 billion worth of products. It sounds like a big number, but it is less than 4 percent of the United States’ total imports last year ($2.4 trillion)
Trump got what the China delegation had already offered way back in 2018: i.e. 51% ownership and resumption of big purchases of US farm products.
In short, Trump caved in and in effect “took the money and ran”. His 2020 re-election interests took precedence over the neocon-military concerns over China’s nextgen tech development. He announced to the world that the USA and China came to an agreement and trade deal.
In short, Trump caved in and in effect “took the money and ran”. His 2020 re-election interests took precedence over the neocon-military concerns over China’s nextgen tech development. He announced to the world that the USA and China came to an agreement and trade deal.
What’s In the Phase 1 Deal?
Important to note, the Phase 1 deal itself is not yet a signed agreement. It’s a verbal understanding between Trump and China’s vice-premier and chief negotiator, Liu He.
In his press conference announcing the deal on October 11, Trump admitted the parties were yet to sign off even on Phase 1 but hoped that it could be done within 5 weeks; that is by the time Trump and Xi meet again at the APEC conference in Chile in November.
Increased purchases of farm products by China.
Trump boasted repeatedly the Phase 1 deal included up to $40-$50 billion in new US farm purchases by China.
Over what period was not clear, however. Trump vacillated from saying current levels of China farm purchases were $8 billion, or maybe $16 billion, or was $17 billion at prior peaks.
He really didn’t know. Or maybe it was $20 billion, as one side comment was made in the press conference. It sounded like $40 billion was the target agreed to in principle and over the course of the next two years.
But that was the ceiling apparently.
Trump declared there’s “never been a deal of this magnitude for the American farmer”. Of course that wasn’t true. But the Trump hyperbole and spin was in.
Americans can have controlling interest in their companies on Chinese soil.
Another major agreement area in Phase 1, according to Trump, was China’s confirmation it would allow US companies to own 51% of their operations in China. As Trump put it, “banks will be very very happy”.
More US multinational corporations could now shift even more production to China.
A Suspension of an additional 5% tariff hike over the already applied 25% tariff hike.
On the important tariff front, in Phase 1 Trump agreed only to
suspend his threatened 5% tariff hike (raising rates from 25% to 30%)
due the following week of October.
What’s NOT In Phase 1
What’s not in Phase 1 reveals clearly that Trump clearly capitulated
on the nextgen tech issue in exchange for resumption of farm purchases
and the 51% US bank ownership in China offer.
No Intellectual Property protections.
What was agreed to in ‘IP, or intellectual property’ protections was
left vague in Phase 1. Trump admitted only some IP issues were included
in Phase 1 but didn’t say what. IP was mostly left to Phase 2, per
Trump.
No details on how China can control the value of the yuan.
Equally vague was the understanding in Phase 1 on how China might agree not to devalue the Yuan, its currency. That was key to the US since devaluation would offset Trump tariffs.
Trade representative, Lighthizer, provided some vague commentary during the Trump press conference about how China and the US would meet to work out some rules in that regard. But the devaluation issue itself was irrelevant.
China had consistently over the preceding 15 months of trade war intervened in money markets to keep its currency from devaluing, and did so even as the rising US dollar was the primary cause of the pressure on the Yuan to devalue, as it other currencies worldwide as well.
If anything was driving the devaluation it was the rising US dollar, not a policy action by China to enact a devaluation.
No action on nexgen technology.
Tech issues were in general put off.
As Trump declared, would be “largely done in Phase 2”, or maybe even a Phase 3. And Phase 2 would not begin until and if Phase 1 verbal understandings were ‘signed off’ in writing five weeks from now by Trump and Xi in Chile.
Further revealing no agreement on the strategic nextgen tech issue, Trump indicated the US would continue its policy attacking China’s 5G tech company, Huawei, as well as selectively ‘blacklist’ other Chinese AI companies in the US.
That was, he added, “a separate process”.
So the nextgen tech issue is now a separate track, in effect decoupled from the trade negotiations. It is very unlikely it will be reintroduced in Phase 2, should that subsequent round even occur, which is not likely in any substantive way before the 2020 US elections.
No reduction on existing tariffs.
Also left out of Phase 1 was any US reduction of existing tariffs on
China imports. That continuation of tariff levels included the $160
billion of China consumer goods exports to the US scheduled for December
15, 2019.
China can continue to subsidize it’s state-owned businesses.
The US also apparently failed to attain its demand that China reduce
its subsidies to its state owned enterprises—a strange proposal given
that the US just subsidized its business sector with trillions of
dollars with Trump’s 2018 tax cuts.
How and Why Trump Folded in the Trade War with China
As usual, Trump talked tough before his G20 meeting with Xi Jinping in Osaka, Japan.
“China will face 25% tariffs on the $300 billion of the remaining imports,”
It was frightening and terrifying, and the world shook. But lo and behold, he not only came up empty handed, but he also caved in numerous ways, including reversing his ban on Huawei.
What happened?
To summarize Trump’s astonishing loss at the negotiations with China:
He didn’t raise new tariffs (on the $300 billion of Chinese goods)
He reversed his ban on Huawei as well as eight other Chinese hi-tech companies, which were sentenced into the “entity list” just a month and half ago. (Now the whole “Huawei is a security threat” has been revealed as an utter hoax!)
He accepted more talks (though, without any deadline targets).
In exchange for all of this, all Trump got was China’s promise to buy more agricultural goods. Ah yes. Once again soybeans and farmers play an immense role in trade decisions.
Tech Bomb Neutralized
How did this happen?
First, China quickly neutralized Trump team’s “nuclear option”. With that option (or idea) being to shut down Huawei, at all levels, in the United States.
Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. is a Chinese multinational technology company that provides telecommunications equipment and sells consumer electronics, including smartphones and is headquartered in Shenzhen, Guangdong province.
It’s not a bad play. As it has worked before.
The US was trying the same playbook that worked with Japan in the 1980s. That time, the US banned Toshiba to bully Japan into the infamous Plaza Accord. But, don’t you know, China isn’t Japan!
ThePlazaAccordorPlazaAgreementwasanagreementbetweenthegovernmentsof France, West Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, todepreciatetheU.S. dollarinrelationtotheJapaneseyenandGermanDeutsche Markbyinterveningincurrencymarkets.
-Wikipedia
This time, however, was different.
Indeed, China and Huawei had a surprise for the US team. Huawei announced that it had been preparing for just this kind of an emergency for many many years.
They were ready.
This time, however, China and Huawei had a surprise for the US team: Huawei announced that it has been preparing for just this kind of an emergency for many many years. They were ready.
Huawei’s CEO (Ren Zhengfei) went on the offensive.
With the media hounding him for rebuttals and sound bites, he responded in a measured and methodical manner. In all, he laid out some pretty surprising comments and announcements. In which [1] he claimed that HiSilicon (a Huawei subsidiary) can make most of the semiconductor chips that Huawei uses, and [2] that Huawei has been working on a secret operating system (“Hong Meng” or “Ark OS”) that can replace both Android and Microsoft Windows!
Huawei did not need American semiconductor chips.
Huawei did not need American or Korean operating systems.
Some media outlets reported that this OS, referred to as "Hongmeng OS", could be released in China in either August or September 2019, with a worldwide release in the second quarter of 2020. On 24 May 2019, Huawei registered "Hongmeng OS" as a trademark in China.
- Harmony OS - Wikipedia
The reaction on the social media was unmistakable. Make no mistake. Anyone who was not an American was rooting for Huawei. Yes, the “underdog” which sold 200 million smartphones last year and half of them were outside China.
Hisilicon Technologies Co., Ltd. (海思半導體) is a Chinese fabless semiconductor company wholly owned subsidiary of Huawei. Founded in 1991 as ASIC Design Center of Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd., HiSilicon became an independent, wholly owned subsidiary of Huawei in 2004.
- HiSilicon - WikiChip
The reaction on the social media was unmistakable. Make no mistake. Anyone who was not an American was rooting for Huawei. Yes, the “underdog” which sold 200 million smartphones last year and half of them were outside China.
Americans had no idea. The Trump negotiation team were blindsided by this. American industry were stunned.
Now, Google and Microsoft were scared.
What if Huawei really launched a good decent OS that can take on Android and Windows? Worse, what if all the other Chinese smartphone companies switched to Hong Meng?
About 65% of worldwide Android users are using Chinese brands!
China is a major player when it comes to the production of smartphones. In addition to having a hand in many of the most recognizable tech brands, China has a number of its own brands that have become quite popular internationally. Are any smartphones not made in China? You can find a phone that’s not manufactured in the People’s Republic–if you’re willing to hunt.
While the US was trying to kill Huawei, it seemed like Huawei was about to kill Android.
The roles were reversed, and America wasn’t ready.
And the implications are far worse.
For the US would lose all its abilities to spy on the world, if both the hardware and the software are Chinese! Truth be told, this is the real reason why Google started lobbying the Trump administration to lift the ban on Huawei.
As for the US semiconductor companies, they also started seeing signs of Chinese independence in the chip-designing area.
China announced a new home-grown CPU that could compete with Intel and AMD. This would be the first time a non-American company would make its own CPU. And another Chinese company announced it will start mass production of memory chips (DRAM).
China announced a new home-grown CPU that could compete with Intel and AMD. This would be the first time a non-American company would make its own CPU. And another Chinese company announced it will start mass production of memory chips (DRAM).
To summarize: US plans for crushing Huawei fell flat and (depending on your point of view) even backfired.
US plans for crushing Huawei fell flat and backfired.
Chinese Economy
How about China’s economy? Are Trump’s tariffs crushing the Chinese economy? Was China on the verge of collapse due to starvation, famine and a rising tide demanding “democracy”?
Not really.
Of course, you wouldn’t be able to tell, with the American propaganda machine in full force, churning out bullshit…
"China’s economy grew at mere 6 per cent in the third quarter of 2019 compared with a year earlier, its slowest pace in about 30 years, delivering another blow to global growth and underlining many of the challenges facing President Xi Jinping.
The country’s trade war with the US, slowing income growth and cooling manufacturing investment took a toll on the world’s second-largest economy between July and September, according to the figures released by the (American) National Bureau of Statistics on Friday."
- The Worst Chinese Economy in 30 Years
Meanwhile, the American economy is roaring forward ever skyward…
"The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 2.30 percent in the second quarter of 2019 over the same quarter of the previous year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.20 percent from 1948 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 13.40 percent in the fourth quarter of 1950 and a record low of -3.90 percent in the second quarter of 2009."
- United States GDP Annual Growth Rate | 2019
Um… I might not be the smartest fellow in the world, but I am pretty sure that 6.0% is a lot better than 2.3% growth. No matter how you look at it.
What’s going on?
During Jan-May 2019, China’s exports to the US fell about 5%, but China’s exports to the EU rose more than 14%. And, guess what, EU is China’s #1 trading partner (and ASEAN is the #2 trade partner), while the US is #3.
During Jan-May 2019, China’s exports to the US fell about 5%, but China’s exports to the EU rose more than 14%. And, guess what, EU is China’s #1 trading partner (and ASEAN is the #2 trade partner), while the US is #3.
So, China keeps growing at a healthy pace. In fact, the IMF predicts a healthy 6.2% real GDP growth for China this year!
But here’s the kicker.
While China’s exports to the US fell 4.8%, the reverse — US exports to China — fell by a whopping 24% (for the first five months of 2019).
The talking is over. Now we’re fighting a real trade war — and here on my farm in Iowa, I’m on the front line.
The dispute between the United States and China poses a direct threat to my livelihood. Because of the new and emerging tariffs on both sides, the things I grow will sell for less and the things I buy will cost me more.
This week the price of hogs dropped $12 for every pig I sell. This morning, soybeans are down 40 cents a bushel — a $1.7 billion loss to the value of U.S. soybeans. And if I want to make new capital purchases of machinery or grain bins — anything made with steel or aluminum — I’ll have to pay a higher amount.
For years, we’ve engaged in a war of words with China over trade. American officials have complained about everything from China’s currency manipulation and subsidized industries to a trade deficit that hit a record level in 2017. The difference between what Americans bought from China and what Chinese bought from the United States reached $375 billion last year. President Trump recently demanded that the United States reduce this gap by at least $100 billion.
Last month, Trump fired a salvo, announcing new tariffs of 25 percent on imported steel and 10 percent on imported aluminum. China retaliated a few days ago with a long list of new tariffs, affecting about $50 billion of American-made products. Many fruits and nuts, for example, will face a 15 percent tax. So will a variety of stainless steel pipes.
China also slapped a 25-percent tax on pork products — a category that affects me directly because I raise hogs. We try to sell every part of these animals, from the meat to the offal. Even before the trade war erupted, pork prices weren’t very good. Now they have dropped to the lowest prices since 2003.
Now things are going from bad to worse.
The Trump administration responded on Tuesday by proposing more than 1,300 new tariffs on Chinese products, including televisions, chemicals and machinery. They’re also worth about $50 billion, in a tit-for-tat move that aims to match China’s latest round.
Now China has shot back. On Wednesday, it added tariffs to more than 100 U.S. products, including cars and planes. This round affects me, too. If the Chinese impose the announced tariff of 25 percent on soybeans, another major product on my farm, it will lower my price $2.50 a bushel.
China isn’t the only market for my pork and soybeans. Reducing our access to this important destination, however, has global repercussions. The bottom line is that what I produce is suddenly worth less money. My competitors in Argentina and Brazil must be celebrating their good luck.
What will tomorrow bring? Nobody knows. Today, however, is bad enough: My farm business is now under siege, held hostage by a trade war that my neighbors and I never wanted. Yet, U.S. Trade Ambassador Robert Lighthizer says we can’t worry about me, it is the big picture that is important. All I can say to him is that the financial bullets are real, and they hit with real impact on us in agriculture.
To be sure, Trump isn’t doing anything he said he wouldn’t do. He has talked tough on trade from the moment he announced his candidacy. I supported his election, but also harbored deep reservations about his trade agenda. Now my fears have come to fruition.
My hope is that the president will make good on the promise that he’s a master negotiator. Perhaps he’ll bargain his way out this mess. Many of the new tariffs have yet to take effect. They’ve already shaken markets and taken an economic toll, but they are threats rather than realities. Perhaps a round of productive bargaining will sweep them away.
- Impact of Chinese trade war: What American farmers produce is suddenly worth less money
So, US exporters and farmers are hurting real bad.
And Trump cannot win re-election without the support of those “great soybean/corn/pork farmers.”
As for the tariffs on the last $300 billion of imports from China, 600 major US corporations and influential trade groups — Walmart, Nike, Apple etc. — strongly lobbied against the tariffs and held a few days of hearing/testimony with the US Dept. of Commerce.
Behind the doors, corporate lobbyists were probably threatening US politicians — “If you don’t stop these tariffs, we will fund your opponent in the coming election and destroy you!”
Then, to really really rub it in, Apple announced one day before the G20 meeting that they were going to move manufacturing of high-end desktop computers (Mac Pro) from the US to China!!!
Yes, it is true, China can cripple the US economy in many ways. Rather than actually carrying out these threats, the Chinese government warned US corporations whose subsidiaries are making hundreds of billions of dollars every year in China — note that this is not reflected in the official trade surplus/deficit calculations.
Then China made these corporations lobby the Trump administration. This is much more effective.
At the same time, China has also been opening up certain sectors in the last month. For example, Morgan Stanley was allowed to become a majority holder in its joint venture; and US corporations would be free to compete
in oil/gas sectors in China. Such actions create allies who will put
the pressure on US politicians to not escalate the trade war.
As for manufacturing, China is moving ahead with artificial intelligence, robotics, 5G, IoT etc. The Chinese really don’t want to be stuck with low-end manufacturing. If some of these jobs move to Vietnam, Thailand etc., that’s fine.
China needs only four or five more years before it fully catches up with the US in major sectors such as semiconductor, biotechnology and civil aviation. While the Chinese government has officially stopped talking about “Made in 2025,” you can bet it has been accelerated to “Made in China 2023.”
Thus, the Chinese government’s plan is to just ride out America’s temper tantrum for a few more years.
The US needs a completely new paradigm for the 21st century. Unfortunately, Washington elites are totally clueless.
Washington elites are totally clueless.
Sun Tzu said, “strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory, but tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” The latter approach is more appealing to Trump, the real estate salesman and TV reality star.
Total capitulation? Art of the Deal? There are actually some very interesting global dynamics at play and lessons to learn. First, to summarize, Trump announced a ‘Phase 1’ of trade deal with China.
Moreover, to the dismay of many of his supporters who are virulently anti-China, he said the following: “There was a lot of friction between the US and China. Now it’s a love fest! That’s a good thing.”
Why Trump made the deal with Phase One
As I have written numerous times over the last 1.5 years, the trade war with China was a futile effort.
China is too strong.
The US is too dependent on China.
It is also impossible to move any meaningful amount of manufacturing out of China.
Moreover, Trump is facing re-election and now, to make things worse, possible impeachment by Democrats. He needs a win. The best solution is to get a partial deal and declare victory.
Winners and Losers
While the US didn’t get its biggest demand (structural changes to the Chinese system) Trump certainly won some decent concessions. These include
China opening up its financial sector to Wall Street
US companies operating in China without joint ventures or technology transfer
Currency deal (strengthening Yuan)
Chinese purchase of agricultural products
Winner #1: The people who run the US are the financial guys — Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Blackstone, Fidelity, Vanguard, Citigroup etc. These guys don’t give a damn about manufacturing,
which is a low-profit operation. The mega and easy profits are made in
stocks, bonds, mutual funds, insurance, derivatives etc.
The ultimate dream of these Wall Street types is to tap into the Chinese market, which has the world’s largest middle class with the fastest growing wealth. Starting next year, these financial guys will be able to set up fully foreign-owned firms that specialize in futures, securities and mutual funds.
Winner #2: China comes out as a winner, even though it has suffered and compromised quite a bit in the negotiations.
First, the US attack has forced Chinese companies to accelerate their plans for technology independence.
Second, the trade war has helped strengthen the Chinese communist party and has increased the sense of nationalism among the public. China has now proven to the world and itself that it can stand up to the US — it didn’t fold in the trade war; numerous countries have refused to ban Huawei or drop out of the Belt and Road Initiative in spite of a lot of American pressure; and US corporations like the NBA and Apple have bowed to China.
Third, the opening up of China will create competition and eventually improve Chinese companies.
Finally, fourthly this truce will stabilize China’s economy and stop America’s hybrid wars (non-war wars). Indeed, just watch how quickly the protests in Hong Kong fizzle out; and watch how the Uyghur “concentration camp” story gets forgotten by the US media.
Partial Winners: US corporations are partial winners, and US farmers will go back to where they were before.
US corps will be able to export more, when the Yuan becomes stronger.
Of course, it depends on how much and how fast Yuan rises. Also, Trump
says that China has agreed to buy $40 or $50 billion worth of US
agricultural products, but farming is not like a factory where you can
double the output easily. So, farmers will just go back to the status
quo before the trade war began.
Just like Bush didn’t break China, Trump won’t break China by forcing
another 20 or 25% rise in Yuan’s value. In fact, that will work just
fine for China, which wants to (1) move its economy more towards
consumption and (2) make Yuan an international currency.
Losers: First, all the rabid anti-China, anti-communist and anti-globalist conservatives are going to be deeply disappointed.
We are not decoupling with china and, worse, we are becoming more interconnected with China. There’s a big crowd on social media who spew insane things like China is our biggest enemy every day! Followers of Steve Bannon, Peter Navarro, Gordon Chang, Kyle Bass etc. will be going through the five stages of grief.
Also, the losers will be those who dreamed of manufacturing jobs
streaming back from China to the US. (They may come back 10-15 years
from now when industrial robots are much smarter).
Phase 1 Conclusion, and on to Phase 2
In his White House briefing, Trump also mentioned a couple of times that this deal is good for world peace. Whether he meant it or not, the sentiment is right. The concept of “Chimerica” may have a chance to live a little longer.
However, there is a catch: US elites may still be dreaming of the “Phase 2” of the deal.
What’s in Phase 2
This is the failed dream-plan to stop the rise of China. Many conservatives hope that this will be implemented to put China in it’s “rightful” place.
This includes “structural changes” to China’s economy — basically making China open up its entire economy to foreign banks/corporations and dismantle its socialist system. It is intended to dismantle the Chinese “Communist with Chinese characteristics” system and replace it with American-style democracy…
As if that is EVER going to happen!
On Tuesday, the House of Representatives passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019. Also, we can expect more legislation. The legislation will hamper Chinese interests. Geng Shuang, China’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson, warned the US about consequences. He said that the legislation is the “wrong decision of the U.S.”
He also said, “Chinese side will have to enact effective countermeasures,” according to a CNBC report.
Shuang warned that if the Senate passes the bill, the bilateral relationship between the US and China could deteriorate. The deal will hamper US interests in China.
Notably, China is an important market for US stocks like Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA). Apple suppliers are located in China. Notably, car sales in China contribute significantly to Tesla’s revenues. However, the above events might give President Trump an extra edge during the trade talks. The legislation needs President Trump’s approval.
-Market Realist
Such changes will mean that there won’t be any state-owned enterprises or government-directed plans like “Made in China 2025.”
From the beginning, US elites were trying to break China like they did with Japan in the 1980s.
In the Plaza Accord, the US forced Japan to double the value of Yen, move car manufacturing plants from Japan to the US, accept crippling sanctions on Toshiba, and handover valuable semiconductor technology patents to the US. All these were possible because the US still occupied Japan. And the lead American negotiator who made it all possible was … Robert Lighthizer … who’s now been leading the charge against China for more than two years.
Unlike Toshiba … Huawei and other Chinese companies now under the “entity list” can survive without US technology or market. Unlike Japan … China is a fully independent country.
Head’s up…
Phase 2 will never happen.
It is highly unlike there will be a ‘Phase 2’ in anything but a token discussion level. And if there is, it is extremely unlikely it will include any meaningful concessions by China on next gen tech—i.e. AI, 5G, cybersecurity.
China has now clearly prevailed in blunting Trump and the neocon offensive in that regard.
For their part, Trump and US military-industrial-Pentagon interests will continue to pursue blocking China on the tech issue in ways decoupled from trade negotiations.
Various other measures will now be the focus, such as attacking and blacklisting China tech companies in the US and even elsewhere among US allies. Perhaps even delisting them from US stock exchanges, as a recent Washington ‘trial balloon’ proposed.
Trump did not go there on the eve of the recent negotiations.
It would certainly have ‘blown up’ the trade deal once again if he had. But that—blacklisting and delisting—remain as likely US tactics in the months to come. For the technology war—i.e. the real war behind the tariffs and trade war—has only just begun between the two countries.
And a broader economic war involving non-tariff measures is almost certain to erupt after the 2020 elections.
A ‘Phase 2’ follow up negotiations is tentatively set for after the Phase 1 sign off in November in Chile. Not much will come of it, however, so long as Trump insists on maintaining the current level of 25% tariffs on China imports to the US.
Trump likes the current level of tariffs and the revenue it brings in, which allows him a somewhat independent source of financing for his domestic programs independent of the US Congress passing legislation and authorization bills which he now won’t get.
On the other hand, Trump may temporarily suspend the planned tariff hikes on $160 billion of consumer goods due December 15, 2019 should the US economy continue to weaken in the 4th quarter, which is more likely than not.
But it will be a temporary suspension, not a dropping of the tariffs.
The 15 month long US-China so-called trade war is over.
There will be further discussions but no significant changes before the US 2020 election. What Trump got in Phase 1 is all he’s going to get.
He’s probably promised the neocons, who have lost out on this Phase 1 deal, even more aggressive action against China companies doing business in the US. That’s their ‘concession prize’.
Worst case, Phase 1 might not even be finalized, should the neocon-Pentagon-Military Industrial Complex faction regroup and try to scuttle the deal, once again for a third time. There’s always that possibility.
-Counterpunch
Meanwhile, China is putting the Neocons on warning… do NOT mess with us.
This is China's most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and it has an operational range of more than 14, 000 kilometers. The DF-41 is capable of carrying about 10 independently targetable nuclear warheads which can hit any target on earth. DF-41 is now the world's longest range missile ahead of US LGM-30 Minuteman which has a reported range of 13,000 kilometers.
- China unveils Dongfeng-41 missiles that ‘can strike US
…the US realized that gunboat diplomacy or nuclear diplomacy are off the table.
For decades, the United States has taken China’s ballistic missile capability for granted, assessing it as a low-capability force with limited regional impact and virtually no strategic value. But on October 1, during a massive military parade celebrating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Beijing put the U.S., and the world, on notice that this assessment was no longer valid.
In one fell swoop, China may have nullified America’s strategic nuclear deterrent, the U.S. Pacific Fleet, and U.S. missile defense capability. Through its impressive display of new weapons systems, China has underscored the reality that while the United States has spent the last two decades squandering trillions of dollars fighting insurgents in the Middle East, Beijing was singularly focused on overcoming American military superiority in the Pacific. If the capabilities of these new weapons are taken at face value, China will have succeeded on this front.
The ghosts of Opium Wars and the Century of Humiliation made sure that China was prepared for this moment.
A Failed Trump Trade Policy
Trump’s trade war with China is clearly a net failure. Trump could have gotten the same deal back in 2018, more than a year ago. Instead, the dispute was allowed to escalate, with the effect of causing business uncertainty and slowing investment in the US and worldwide due to the 15 month trade war.
The trade war has clearly played a part in the global manufacturing recession now underway, which threatens now to spread to services and consumption and precipitate a general recession in the US economy and possibly even worldwide.
Trump has pushed the global economy to the brink of a worldwide
currency war in the process as well. He has drained $28 billion thus
far from business and consumer spending in order to collect tariff
revenues that he’s diverted in turn to the farm sector in subsidies that
otherwise might not have been necessary. Small business, household
consumers, and failing small farmers have paid the price and will
continue to do so in higher prices from continuing tariffs.
Despite 15 months of trade war with China—and a series of ‘softball’ trade deals with South Korea, Japan, and Mexico-Canada—the US trade deficit as of August 2019 has reached record deficit levels of $55 billion that month and an annual rate of nearly $700 billion a year. The trade wars have been totally ineffective in reducing the US trade deficit—if that was ever the goal.
If we look at the ratio of #exports to #GDP (currently 19.51%) and the #distribution by country (just about 20% to the #US), we realize that only about 3.9% of #China's GDP is coming from exports to the US.
That is less than the annual growth of GDP.
In other words, China's #economy grows by much more than all the exports to the US - every year.
This puts the potential pressure the #USA can put on China via protectionist policies in quite some perspective.
Of course, the actual exports have a multiplier, as suppliers to exporting companies would also suffer from a further closing down of the US economy.
But the main message remains: 80% of Chinese exports don't go to the US (and increasing as trade with #Africa grows), and overall the Chinese economy is less and less dependent of foreign #currency coming from exports. #TradeWar
-Harold Bachmann
Now some humorous Dilbert on this matter…
Links about China
Here are
some links about my observations on China. I think that you, the reader,
might find them to be of interest. Please kindly enjoy.
China and America Comparisons
As an
American, I cannot help but compare what my life was in the United
States with what it is like living in China. Here we discuss that.
The Chinese Business KTV Experience
This is
the real deal. Forget about all that nonsense that you find in the
British tabloids and an occasional write up in the American liberal
press. This is the reality. Read or not.
Learning About China
Who
doesn’t like to look at pretty girls? Ugly girls? Here we discuss what
China is like by looking at videos of pretty girls doing things in
China.
Contemporaneous Chinese Music
This is a
series of posts that discuss contemporaneous popular music in China. It
is a wide ranging and broad spectrum of travel, and at that, all that I
am able to provide is the flimsiest of overviews. However, this series
of posts should serve as a great starting place for investigation and
enjoyment.
Parks in China
The parks
in China are very unique. They are enormous and tend to be very
mountainous. Here we take a look at this most interesting of subjects.
Really Strange China
Here are
some posts that discuss a number of things about China that might seem
odd, or strange to Westerners. Some of the things are everyday events,
while others are just representative of the differences in culture.
What is China like?
The
purpose of this post is to illustrate that the rest of the world,
outside of America, has moved on with their lives. That while they
might not be as great as America is, they are doing just fine thank
you.
And while
America has been squandering it’s money, decimating it’s resources,
and just being cavalier with it’s military, the rest of the world has
done the opposite. They have husbanded their day to day fortunes, and
you can see this in their day-to-day lives.
Summer in Asia
Let’s take a moment to explore Asia. That includes China, but also includes such places as Vietnam, Thailand, Japan and others…
Some Fun Videos
Here’s a collection of some fun videos taken all over Asia. While
there are many videos taken in China, we also have some taken in
Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Korea and Japan as well. It’s all in fun.
Articles & Links
You’ll not
find any big banners or popups here talking about cookies and privacy
notices. There are no ads on this site (aside from the hosting ads – a
necessary evil). Functionally and fundamentally, I just don’t make money
off of this blog. It is NOT monetized. Finally, I don’t track you
because I just don’t care to.
You can start reading the articles sequentially by going HERE.
You can visit the Index Page HERE to explore by article subject.
You can also ask the author some questions. You can go HERE to find out how to go about this.
![The reasons clearly have to do with [1] the US economy softening in the 3rd quarter combined with [2] a growing discontent in the farm sector. This discontent is over Trump’s handling of the trade dispute that was beginning to bite hard on US farm sector sales. You see, American farmers were heavily dependent on exports to China.](https://metallicman.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/5107_Fig5-1024x718.png)
