We are moving slowly and cautiously towards the new year. By all accounts, this will be a pivotal year. Initial observations suggest a positive outlook for China, a continuation of the same for Europe, and a slow bumpy slide for the United States.
I tire of Geo-politics,, but you all do know that these last few years are history-book events. As will be this year.
Domain Commander suggest small to medium bads. But not what we all think. So don’t get too upset with your fears taking over.
Most of this post will be on the easy light side, with some thoughts…
11 Signs That The Economic “Tipping Point” That Everyone Has Been Waiting For Has Now Arrived
How bad do things have to get before people start realizing that we are in the midst of a full-blown economic crisis? The “experts” on television are endlessly debating about whether or not we are going to have a “recession” this year, and meanwhile economic activity is imploding all around us.
The number of homes being sold in this country each month has already fallen by a third. The number of job cuts in November was 417 percent higher than it was during the same month a year earlier, and at this point even Amazon is laying off thousands of workers.
The Federal Reserve has declared war on inflation, but prices continue to spiral out of control. In fact, vegetables are 80 percent more expensive now than they were 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the financial markets continue to plunge. A third of the value of the Nasdaq has already been wiped out, and more than two-thirds of the value of all cryptocurrencies is already gone.
After everything that has already transpired, everyone should be able to clearly understand what is happening.
So many people have been waiting for an economic nightmare to come, but the truth is that it is already here.
The following are 11 signs that the economic “tipping point” that everyone has been waiting for has now arrived…
#1 U.S. manufacturing is declining at the fastest pace that we have seen since the early days of the COVID pandemic…
The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell at the fastest rate since May 2020 in December, a continuing sign that the manufacturing sector is on the decline, S&P Global reported Tuesday.
The U.S. Manufacturing PMI posted a 46.2 in December, down from 47.7 in November and solidly below 50, which signals that the sector is contracting, according to S&P Global. Production levels contracted in back-to-back months, with new sales plummeting at the end of December at the fastest pace since 2007, as companies cited weakening demand amid “economic uncertainty” and inflation weighing on customers.
#2 U.S. services PMI has now fallen for sixth months in a row.
#3 We just witnessed the largest one day drop in the Baltic Dry Index since 1984…
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index crashed on Tuesday in the worst decline on record, sinking on prospects of a global recession.
Baltic Dry Good Index is a measure of global shipping and economic health. The overall index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax, and supramax shipping vessels carrying dry bulk commodities, plunged 17.5% to $1,250, the most significant daily decline since 1984.
#4 Thanks to rapidly falling imports, we just witnessed the largest monthly decline in the trade deficit since the last financial crisis…
According to the BEA, the November trade deficit narrowed to $61.5b from $77.8b in prior month, coming in below the median estimate of $63.0BN (and just barely missing the top end of the range of $61.3BN to $80.5BN from 42 economists).
Remarkably, the 20% one-month decline in the deficit was the single biggest drop in the US trade deficit on a percentage basis going back to the global financial crisis!
#5 In 2022, U.S. auto sales were the lowest that we have seen for a full year in more than a decade…
Industrywide, U.S. auto sales totaled 13.7 million vehicles in 2022, the lowest figure since 2011 and an 8% decrease from the prior year, according to the research firm Wards Intelligence. Sales had topped 17 million vehicles for five straight years before the Covid-19 pandemic struck in 2020, unleashing supply-chain problems that have bogged down deliveries ever since.
#6 The average rate on a 30 year fixed-rate mortgage is more than twice as high as it was this time last year…
Mortgage rates inched up again last week, after a slight increase the week before interrupted six straight weeks of falling rates.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.48% in the week ending January 5, up from 6.42% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate was 3.22%.
#7 According to CNN, sales of apartments in Manhattan were 28.5 percent lower in the fourth quarter of 2022 than they were in the fourth quarter of 2021…
Higher rates and still-high housing prices cooled demand at the end of last year, causing sales to tumble. Sales dropped 28.5% in the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.
#8 Overall, existing home sales in the United States have fallen for 10 months in a row and are now down by more than a third since January 2022.
#9 Bed Bath & Beyond is warning that the company is literally on the verge of declaring bankruptcy…
Bed Bath & Beyond warned Thursday it’s running out of cash and is considering bankruptcy.
The retailer, citing worse-than-expected sales, issued a “going concern” warning that in the upcoming months it likely will not have the cash to cover expenses, such as lease agreements or payments to suppliers. Bed Bath said it is exploring financial options, such as restructuring, seeking additional capital or selling assets, in addition to a potential bankruptcy.
#10 It is being reported that Amazon has decided to lay off approximately 18,000 employees…
Amazon.com Inc. is laying off more than 18,000 employees — the biggest reduction in its history — in the latest sign that a tech-industry slump is deepening.
#11 Overall, the tech industry has already laid off more than 150,000 workers over the last year.
Many more American workers will lose their jobs as economic activity slows down even more throughout 2023.
So if you currently have a good job that you value, try to cling to it as hard as you can.
The times that we are moving into are going to look completely different from the times that we have enjoyed over the past decade.
Our leaders were able to keep the party going for a long time by absolutely flooding the system with money, but now they have lost control.
We are literally careening toward disaster, but most Americans still don’t understand what is taking place.
Most Americans just assume that those in authority know exactly what they are doing and that a “return to normal” is inevitable.
I wish that was true, because the ride into the economic abyss that we are facing is not going to be fun.
What’s It Like To Witness An Execution?
I wrote the following description of having just witnessed an execution while in the passenger seat of a car driving away from the prison. I wanted it to be as accurate and detailed as possible…
I came to Oklahoma to witness a killing, a homicide in fact.
At a microphone Debbie Huggins fights tears and with a strong southern drawl says slowly, emphatically: “What we did to him today was much kinder than what he did to my dad.”
“Him” refers to Michael Selsor and “what” to the murder of Clayton Chandler, a clerk shot six times during a gas station robbery in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Selsor pulled the trigger even after Chandler had complied and volunteered the loot.
“In 1975 I never would have thought that it would take 37 years for justice,” Huggins says.
Today’s justice was delivered about half an hour before Huggins approached the microphone; it is why I am here.
There are few acts graver than when a government takes the life of one of its own citizens. Executions often get a lot of coverage in the US, when there is something controversial about the case or enough people believe the condemned might be innocent. These scenarios attract media attention and fuel vigils. This was not the case with Michael Selsor. Everyone agreed that he did it, including him. The reporters who cover Selsor’s execution will focus on Huggins and her family. Perhaps you cannot blame them. The only interview Selsor ever granted was to me.
Even though executions are conducted on behalf of the citizens of the state, very few are allowed to witness it: families of the condemned and their victims, lawyers, law enforcement, and journalists. This is why I felt a responsibility to witness Selsor’s end and then to report it as dispassionately and honestly as I could. The following attempts such an account.
About an hour before Huggins gives her statement, I am led from a makeshift media center to the notorious H Unit, home of Oklahoma’s death row. A pat down ensures our escorts that I carry no possessions other than the clothes on my back. They give me paper and a pen so I can take notes. I am joined by five other reporters. We maneuver through a set of gates that open to a large passageway. The walls and floor are made of smooth concrete. The passage feels stark, modern, like a secret missile silo – and incongruous with this century-old prison famous for inmate rodeos and executions.
Eventually we turn through a large yellow door into the death chamber’s viewing room. I have been here before, but then the space was empty and part of the tour – now it is ready for business.
A handful of prison officials and guards are waiting for us in the viewing room, a narrow rectangle about four times as long as it is wide. A long series of windows to my right are covered by drawn blinds. Two rows of 12 brown metal folding chairs – the kind dragged out of a storage closet at a school picnic – are lined up. I am the first reporter in the room and told to go to the end of the second row and take a seat.
As I sidestep down the row I notice for the first time another set of windows on the left side of the room. The tinted panes conceal the identity of those on the other side. I suppose the setup is not unlike a wedding with two families to attend to and keep separated. The original victim, Clayton Chandler, is represented by an unknown number of family members behind the dark glass. It is hot in the room – at least 90 degrees and rising as people file in. Movement behind the opaque windows catches the light and my eye; at least two people are fanning themselves with white paper. Chandler’s family members must already be in place, watching us nervously find our seats.
Three lawyers in dark suits representing Selsor enter next and sit directly in front of me. Selsor’s family follows. His son wears a grey t-shirt, shorts and a military-short haircut. Tattoos cover his neck and arms. Selsor’s sister, with a shock of blonde hair, looks tired. Her bright blue, short-sleeved shirt contrasts a suntanned face, wizened beyond her years. A box of cheap tissues rests in the son’s chair, courtesy of the state. Once Selsor’s family is settled, a small contingent of law enforcement file in, including Jeff Jordan, who investigated Chandler’s murder as a rookie homicide detective. He is now Tulsa’s police chief.
A cacophony of banging echoes throughout the prison. We have been warned not to be alarmed by the noise – it is how inmates say their goodbyes.
Selsor is respected on death row. He is seemingly regarded as a serious and contemplative individual who became an asset of sorts to prison inmates and staff alike – though officials always caveat the sentiment with a reminder that his crime was inexcusably wrong and such actions must bear consequences. As the run guy, a job given to the toughest of the condemned, Selsor made deliveries to other cells and kept fellow inmates in line. When school children visited the prison, Selsor played a regular part in the tour. From behind bars he shared his life lesson about the consequences of one’s actions with the children.
The appointed time nears and the banging becomes rhythmic – quick at first, but slowing now to a steady, dirge-like pace.
The director of Oklahoma prisons, Justin Jones, who has twice appeared on Fault Lines, enters. The yellow door shuts behind him. Rather than taking a chair, he is handed a phone, a hotline to the governor’s office. Though not far from me, I cannot hear what he is saying. Jones hangs the receiver up, picks up a different phone connected with the execution chamber and tells them to proceed.
It is exactly 6 pm local time. The curtain goes up as guards raise the mini-blinds inside the execution chamber. Selsor’s family in front of me gasps at the sight of him. He is strapped to the bed with his arms padlocked down and covered in a sheet up to his chest. Selsor’s pinched eyebrows convey a look between fear and guilt.
The son waves to his father for what turns out to be the last time and reaches for the tissues. The son and sister begin to cry. Selsor lifts his head as much as he can and turns toward his small audience: “My son, my sister, I love you ’til I see you again next time. Be good. Eric, [Selsor’s lawyer] keep up the struggle.” His eyes scan the viewing room: “I’ll be waiting at the gates of heaven for you. I hope the rest of you make it there as well.”
He looks to the prison official standing over him and says: “I’m ready.” Relaxing back to the bed, he turns his head to the side and focuses on his son.
Though we cannot see it, we all know what is happening now. Two intravenous lines run from Selsor’s arms to two holes in a wall about three feet behind his head. From a hidden room, three executioners each press a plunger sending lethal doses into his veins: one with pentobarbital, another with vecuronium bromide and a third with potassium chloride. The executioners are each paid $300 in cash, so no paper trail leads to their identity.
With a tilted head still looking at his son, Selsor’s gaze begins to fade, his eyelids half closing. A final breath exits his body with a visible puff from his lips. His body stills, eyes half open and locked on his son. It is roughly 6:03 pm.
The next three minutes pass painfully slowly. No one moves in the death chamber or viewing room. I hear barely perceptible sounds of crying from the row in front of me. A medical examiner in the chamber approaches the bed, checks for signs of life and pronounces Michael Selsor dead at 6:06 pm.
We solemnly return to the media center. Huggins holds a press conference and tells us that the execution did not bring closure or the kind of justice it seems she was seeking, but it is easy to see her relief from the death of Selsor. The ultimate boogeyman in her mind was finally gone.
In time a death certificate will be issued from the state of Oklahoma. For cause of death, it will say Selsor died from a homicide. Though it took nearly four decades to find its target, it is clear now that the trigger Selsor pulled that fateful day in 1975 ended not only Chandler’s life, but Selsor’s own as well.
Confessions of an Investment Banker
What do you do?
I work in the Internet and Interactive Entertainment group of the bank, where we perform advisory mergers and acquisitions services and work to arrange financing for our clients through IPOs and by issuing debt (I help internet companies get access to piles of cash).
As a banker on the internet team, I get to work with the top brass at every possible website you can think of. Whenever you hear “xyz dot com is going to merge with abc”, you can bet that I’m involved.
Investment bankers do one of two things for their clients. all my clients are in the internet/video game space.
1) We help companies get access to capital (money) by issuing corporate bonds (debt) or by going public through an IPO. companies need money to expand, and we offer that service.
Issuing corporate bonds is similar to taking out a mortgage, except the dollar amounts of bonds are several orders of magnitude larger.
2) We help companies merge or acquire other companies. these often very complicated transactions that require the buyer to have access to billions of dollars of cash, for example.
Investment bankers are like real estate brokers. We don’t “invest”.
How much do you make?
I expect to make around 1.2 million this year
How many hours do you work per week?
Hours are easily 100 hours/week. Younger guys often sleep in the office, and work 7 days a week. You will be expected to drop everything, even if your brother is getting married, for the job.
How do you not burn out?
I take extravagant trips to crazy places and do serious outdoor/adventure type stuff. Last trip was a backpacking trek through the rockies with around two mountain passes each day and wild weather. I like to live off the land, and lots of guys here are obsessive about training for marathons, mountain expeditions, etc.
Being in the city helps. it never closes and you get to socialize. The worst part is waking up in the morning after you got home at 4am the prior night. it’s tough. really tough.
I get to see my fiance on the weekends and we basically see each other only in the mornings on weekdays.
We dont have kids yet. i’m not sure how that is going to go down, to be honest. I don’t think i want to be that kind of dad. and that day is coming soon. we think we can last about 2-3 years but i’m not sure i want my child raised in that kind of environment.
Is your lifestyle worth the money?
Like many in the business, I plan to earn big and retire early, leaving banking for good to focus on raising a family and living in the mountains. banking, for me, is a means to an end. It is also incredibly exciting, cut-throat, and demanding. Definitely not for everybody.
Although you earn an amazing amount of money each year, do you ever feel envious of other co-workers/superiors that earn 20-50x more? Do you hope to attain that level of income?
Yes i do. i think it’s human nature, especially when you see a guy and say “dude, i totally do the same thing that guy does, and i’d like to earn that much”. of course, i’m sure that other guys at the bank say the same thing about me….
Pretty sure they set it up this was on purpose so that employees retain an absurd competitive fire in their bellies for year after year.
Truth be told, i’m pretty satisfied with my income, but having an eight figure annual income just for one year would set up anybody’s family forever.
How’d you get that job and is it really all connections?
I got the job through a traditional route: top undergrad school with high gpa and engineering background, work experience in technical field, back to get my mba at top 5 school where i got a 3.8 gpa, and was hired to work at the bank following graduation. I did a summer internship at the bank.
Getting into investment banking is easy – as long as you are still a junior in college and are a serious student. the easiest way into banking is to get an internship after your junior year of college. it’s incredibly compettive, and you will need to stand out from the crowd.
Connections can play a big part in helping you get to know the bank.
How do you stand out from the crowd?
They assume the applicant pool for these jobs will have stellar grades, cool extracurriculars, and so forth.
The way to stand out is to show the bank you REALLY want the job. you do that by meeting with as many current employees of each bank as possible before the applications are due. place phone calls, get to know people etc etc.
Also, nailing your interviews and being supremely prepared for finance questions doesn’t hurt.
What kind of skillset do you have and do you use?
Powerpoint and Excel are the two tools that an analyst will use almost exclusively. it’s about creating the slides that we use in our “pitch books”. recent college graduates enter the bank as “analysts”, and after three years are either promoted to associate, go to business school, or are shuffled out of the bank.
A you progress, you become less “excel” (doing discounted cash flows aka DCF) and more into “client” relationships ie: going into Ford Motor and telling them how some crazy acquisition is going to increase the value of the firm. Investment Banking is ultimately a sales job, and the guys with the biggest rolodexes win.
Investment banking is by far the most competitive field to get into. I compare it to being a professional athlete. what would you sacrifice to become a starting pitcher for the yankees? year round strength training, intense focus, competitive fire, endless practice, and years on the road, away from your family.
What do you think of trading? Is it more competitive?
Trading has a slightly more aggressive culture, but it is easier to get into, possibly by a whisker. if your friend formatted an excel table incorrectly, he’d probably get absolutely reamed out by his superiors. screaming and yelling is very common. Trading is like that, but they also scream about everything in general, and they tend to have worse grammar than me when writing emails. Lots of capital letters and misspellings “HARLY DAVIDSON KITCHEN SINKED HTE QUARTER AND UR TELLING ME THAT THEIR FINANCEING ARM IS GOING TO BE OKAY LOL”
Have you been effectively saving a portion of what you earn throughout your employment?
Yes and no. firstly, yes my expenses have risen as I have purchased a nice apartment. but more importantly, outside of a house, you really have to push the envelope in my profession to spend more than you earn.
One of the pressures is this: you have so little free time that you’re actual free time/vacation becomes invaluable. it means i end up spending inordinate amounts of money to get places quickly – if i haven’t taken a single day off for three months and i finally have five days, you better believe i’m not taking the bus or slow-boat anywhere for my vacation.
How do you invest your savings? By yourself or with an adviser?
My money is professionally managed. due to compliance issues, lots of the information I possess is “inside”. I speak directly to management and we are given extreme amounts of need to know information. The SEC watches all of our trades and our families and friends trades to combat insider trading.
What are the motives of most people involved in the industry. Is it simply money, or do people actually find joy in that kind of lifestyle? Or anything else?
Having a ceo call you up and ask for your opinion day after day after day is pretty awesome.
Every day, the things i work on are reported on the front page of every newspaper in the world. you get to be involved at a very high level, which is honestly thrilling.
Money plays a big role in putting up with the hours. but there is more to the job than simply long hours and big paychecks. The work we do tends to be rockstar awesome. Call me crazy but I get off on doing stuff like that. We get to talk to so many interesting and successful people.
The worst kind of investment banker is the guy who just really, really doesn’t want to be there. they wanted the lifestyle, but just can’t deal with the downsides, which are monumental. If you get into banking for the wrong reasons, you’re going to hate it!
What’s the most you ever spent on strippers?
Not a lot. Have been with people who have spent a lot. Strip clubs are not my scene to be honest. I am a geek/nerd/numbers guy. Outdoorsey.
If after college graduation you’d unexpectedly inherited a trust fund that meant you could live an extravagant life without working, what career do you think you would’ve ended up in?
Mountaineer/ski instructor/backcountry ski guide – without a doubt. my third career will hopefully be something tangential such as opening up a heliski operator or ski store or something.
If you were to die tomorrow, would you have been happy with your life?
Actually, very happy. have an amazing, beautiful, smart fiance and feel a real sense of accomplishment about my work. I am optimistic about the future, and proud of what i’ve accomplished in the past.
Classic Rock And New Wave Songs Brilliantly Reimagined As Vintage Pulp Fiction Paperbacks
“London Calling” re-imagines the classic Clash song as an issue of a 1950s-era pulp detective magazine. Prints come in four sizes, priced accordingly. Prints are on heavy, glossy archival-quality paper. The perfect gift for the punk rocker in your life.
Graphic artist Todd Alcott has brilliantly reimagined classic rock and new wave songs as vintage pulp-fiction paperback books.
“Black Dog” re-imagines the epochal 1971 Led Zeppelin song as the German poster for a 1930s movie version of The Hound of The Baskervilles.
Michael Snyder: The Overall Theme For 2023 Will Be “Here We Go!”
A lot of people tend to use the phrase “here we go” when they think that something really good is about to happen, and others tend to use it when they think that something really bad is about to happen. Needless to say, in this case I am using the phrase “here we go” as my overall theme for 2023 because I believe that we are going to be facing a really rough year.
I expect that so many of the trends that have been percolating throughout 2022 will greatly accelerate over the next 12 months. So if you were not pleased with 2022, it is likely that you are really not going to enjoy what is ahead of us in 2023.
I certainly don’t need to tell any of you that 2022 was a very tough year for the economy. It truly was a year when “everything started to fall apart”, and lots of prominent voices on Wall Street are now warning that things will get even worse in 2023.
But if the Federal Reserve were to suddenly reverse course and begin lowering interest rates, that would help the short-term economic outlook a great deal.
Unfortunately, that isn’t going to happen. In fact, Fed officials are openly telling us that they expect interest rates to remain elevated for “some time” to come…
Federal Reserve officials reaffirmed their commitment to combating inflation at their December meeting and indicated that interest rates could remain elevated for “some time” until there is clear evidence that consumer prices are falling.
Minutes from the U.S. central bank’s Dec. 13-14 meeting released on Wednesday showed that policymakers worried that investors and financial markets could misinterpret their decision to raise interest rates more slowly as a sign they were ending their campaign to bring prices under control. Officials stressed that the smaller rate hike – 50 basis points, compared to the previous fourth 75-basis point-increases – “was not an indication of any weakening” and warned of continued risks on the inflation front.
So there is no hope on the horizon, and higher rates will continue to crush economic activity for the foreseeable future.
And with each passing day, what is happening to the economy is becoming clearer and clearer. For example, we just learned that Salesforce will be laying off approximately 8,000 workers…
Salesforce plans to lay off about 10% of its workforce, or nearly 8,000 employees, and reduce its office space as tech companies cut costs amid concerns about the economy.
In a note to employees Wednesday, Chief Executive Officer Marc Benioff said the move comes as customers take a more cautious approach to spending as the economic “environment remains challenging.”
This is just the tip of the iceberg.
There will be many more layoffs during the weeks and months to come.
Another trend that I will be watching very closely in 2023 is the deterioration of faith in our politicians and in our governmental institutions.
The drama that is playing out in Washington right now is a perfect example of what I am talking about. Kevin McCarthy is a prototypical “swamp creature”, and that is why the establishment loves him. As Speaker of the House, McCarthy would be in charge of keeping the wheels of corruption in motion. There is so much campaign money that needs to be funneled in the right direction, so many important favors that need to get done, and so many critical deals that need to be orchestrated.
The Washington establishment can’t afford to have someone with principles as Speaker of the House, and so they are going to keep pushing for McCarthy.
Of course McCarthy is deeply unpopular outside of Washington, but so was Nancy Pelosi.
Sadly, that doesn’t really matter, because we we are not supposed to have a say in these battles.
But the American people are getting fed up. They can see the endless corruption that is going on, and the popularity of both parties is sinking.
And the truth is that politicians from both parties have been lying to our faces over and over again.
For many of our politicians, lying is as natural as breathing is.
Unfortunately, we have gotten to a point where most of our politicians have lost all of their credibility, and a population that no longer has faith in the system is going to be exceedingly difficult to govern.
I also expect 2023 to be a year of great natural disasters.
Throughout 2022, there was just one historic disaster after another. It seemed like I was constantly writing about droughts, famines, wildfires, hurricanes, giant storms, earthquakes, volcanoes and tornadoes.
Unfortunately, I believe that the 12 months that are ahead of us will be even worse.
If you doubt this, just consider what has been happening over the past few weeks.
In late December, a colossal “bomb cyclone” brought a “once in a generation storm” to the Midwest. In fact, the blizzard that we witnessed in Buffalo was the worst storm in the entire recorded history of the city.
Just as we were recovering from that, a mammoth “atmospheric river” slammed into the west coast. Some parts of California received more than four feet of snow, and there was catastrophic flooding in other areas.
Now here we are just a few days later, and another “bomb cyclone” is about to hammer California. According to the National Weather Service, this is going to be a “truly brutal” storm…
Another powerful storm, known as a bomb cyclone, is hitting the California coast and the National Weather Service in the Bay Area is warning residents that the “truly brutal” system needs to be taken seriously.
The system could trigger “immediate disruption to commerce, and the worst of all, likely loss of human life,” forecasters say. It comes on the heels of a round of record-breaking rainfall that slammed the same area over the weekend.
I have never seen two immensely powerful storms hit California so close together.
There will be “widespread flooding”, and conditions in some parts of the state will be so dangerous that authorities are actually encouraging people to have “go bags” prepared in advance…
A dangerous storm system is slamming California, with meteorologists at the National Weather Service warning of imminent “widespread flooding, impassible roads, mudslides/landslides [and] rapid rises in rivers/creeks.” The system, which prompted the Weather Service to take the unusual step of urging residents to have “go bags” at the ready and prepare insurance documentation in advance, is set to unleash its harshest conditions Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Virtually the entirety of Northern and Central California is under flood watches and high-wind warnings, with damaging gusts to 60 mph possible. Strong to severe thunderstorms could be in the offing as well, in addition to 2 to 4 inches of rain in the lowlands and more in the mountains. In the highest terrain, the heavy rain will transition to up to 2 to 4 feet of heavy snow. Along the coast, beaches will be battered by large waves and areas of coastal flooding.
I also believe that 2023 will be a year when multiple pestilences run wild all over the planet.
These days, it seems like a different disease is making global headlines each week.
A few weeks ago everyone was talking about RSV, and then it was Strep A, and now this week a new “super variant” of COVID is deeply alarming authorities…
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist and chief of the COVID Risk Task Force at the New England Complex Systems Institute, has called XBB1.5 a “super variant.”
XBB.1.5, which is mutated from the original Omicron strain, appears to be spreading faster than others because it is better at attaching itself to human cells.
“A mutation in the virus is located at the site where it binds to the human cells,” said Wine. “To effectively infect humans, the virus needs to bind to cells, and XBB.1.5 seems to do this very tightly.”
Next week it might be something else.
At this point, there are billions of people that have compromised immune systems, and that means that the global population has been perfectly primed for whatever plagues we see in 2023.
I certainly can’t end this article without talking about war.
I expect that both sides will continue to escalate the conflict in Ukraine in 2023, and it appears that the Russians may be preparing a massive new offensive campaign from the north.
Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East continue to rise, and I believe that a war between Israel and Iran has become inevitable.
On the other side of the planet, the Chinese could soon pull the trigger on an invasion of Taiwan, and if that happens we could also see North Korea invade South Korea while the U.S. is distracted with China.
I have been warning that these wars were coming for a long time, and once they erupt our world will never be the same again.
In fact, our world is already radically different from what it was like just a few short years ago.
So much changed throughout 2020, 2021 and 2022.
But the pace of change is only going to accelerate even more as we get deeper into 2023.
So buckle up and hold on tight, because here we go…
Cabbage Beef Bake
“Quick, easy, and inexpensive.”
Ingredients
- 1 small cabbage, shredded
- 1 1⁄2 lbs lean ground beef, can use lean ground turkey
- 1 large onion, chopped
- 1⁄2 cup chopped red bell pepper
- 1 (15 ounce) can diced tomatoes, undrained
- 1⁄2 teaspoon salt
- 1⁄2 teaspoon pepper
- 1⁄2 teaspoon sugar
- 1 teaspoon caraway seed
- 1 (8 ounce) can tomato sauce
- 1 cup reduced-fat sour cream
- 1 cup shredded swiss cheese, can use mozzarella, cheddar, etc
Directions
- Preheat oven to 350. Lightly grease/spray a deep 13 x 9 baking dish.
- Place shredded cabbage in bottom of baking dish; set aside.
- Brown and crumble ground beef (or turkey) with the onion and red bell pepper; drain and return to the skillet.
- To the drained beef mixture, add the diced tomatoes (undrained), salt, pepper, sugar and caraway seeds. Stir together well and spread this mixture over the cabbage in the baking dish.
- In a small bowl, stir together the tomato sauce and sour cream, blending well. Spread this mixture over the beef mixture in the baking dish.
- Cover and bake for 1 hour.
- Uncover, evenly sprinkle with the 1 cup of shredded swiss cheese and bake (uncovered) for an additional 15-20 minutes.
Confessions Of A Woman Who Had Her Rapist’s Baby
What happened?
When I was 19 years old, my 38 year old boss held me against my will for 3 weeks and raped me multiple times. I ended up pregnant and have been raising my son for the last 8 years.
How did he keep you against your will?
He told me we were working in a different city for a few days. He proceeded to take me to his elderly mother’s house. She had some sort of dementia so she didn’t understand what was going on. He took my keys and my phone and if someone called me, he would send a text pretending to be me. He kept me in a constant state of buzzed by only allowing me to have drinks with alcohol.
At night I was to take a sleeping pill with alcohol so I wouldn’t wake up and sneak away. I tried to fight him, but he had 100 pounds on me and I didn’t stand a chance against him.
Did he go to jail?
No. The cops failed to properly investigate claiming the lack of physical evidence made this a he-said/she-said case so it basically wasn’t worth their time.
Is there no way to hold this guy accountable?
The statute of limitations was up 2 years ago. Because they failed to properly investigate and didn’t place charges against him, there is nothing to be done to hold him accountable.
Did the police/authorities give you a reason they wouldn’t investigate someone’s three week abduction?
Lack of physical evidence. And because I went willingly (I thought we were going for work) it wasn’t considered an “abduction” because I was an adult.
Was abortion ever something that crossed your mind?
There was a moment where I seriously considered it. But due to my faith, I just couldn’t do it. However, I would NEVER agree to FORCING a woman into carrying their rapist’s child. I had my faith to hold onto, but even then, it was the hardest thing I have ever had to do.
I also want to add that I had considered adoption, but when I had my first ultrasound and saw the heartbeat, I felt this overwhelming love and I knew we would survive this together.
Does your son look like him?/Do you love your son?
Luckily my son looks like a mini male version of me, so I never feel like I’m looking at my rapist. And I absolutely love my son with all my heart. This wasn’t his fault anymore than it was mine.
Does your son know?
No. He knows that another man “put him in my belly”. I WILL NOT EVER tell him about the rape.
There is absolutely NO circumstance in which this information will be beneficial to my son. I will not withhold any pertinent medical information, etc.
As far as he will ever know, it was a one night stand with a guy who turned out to be dangerous. He has a long criminal rap sheet that I can refer to.
He knows that another man “put him in mommy’s belly”, but he’s never pressed beyond that because my husband is “daddy” and always has been. He’s an amazing father so my son has no holes he feels need to be filled.
I’m aware that he may ask more questions as an adult, but I plan to be as vague as possible. Make him believe it was just some one night stand or something. The truth would just destroy him.
Is the rapist trying to claim parental rights? Does he pay child support?
He he fighting the petition to terminate his rights. He hasn’t made any attempt to contact my son, but he’s trying to make it as difficult as possible for my husband to adopted him.
I never sued for child support because that would give him an open to visitation rights. I have done everything I can to protect my son from him.
He is a rotten human being. Still wants to feel powerful my making you feel miserable.
That’s exactly why he’s doing this. It’s always been about power. 9 Years later and he still holds some power in my life. He isn’t going to give it up.
Have you ever been scared of your child ending up like the father?
Absolutely! It’s one of my biggest fears. But my husband and I are raising him to respect everyone, not just women. I will do whatever it takes to raise him to be a productive and successful member of society.
Has this created fear of intimacy or having future children ?
Initially it was extremely difficult for me to enjoy intimate moments. But then I met my now husband when my son was 16 months old.
He was patient and sweet and our relationship was about more than sex, so I grew to trust him and allow myself to enjoy the intimacy with him.
Still, every year, the month of June I subconsciously shut down the “funky town train”. My husband always understands and allows me to initiate when I’m ready to be intimate again.
Due to my amazing husband’s patience, we have actually had 3 more children in the last 5 years.
What advice do you have for people in your situation who did not get the rape allegation immediately pursued?
EMDR therapy! You may not be able to put your rapist away, but at least you can work through the trauma and not let it control your life. Take back your life!
What is EMDR?
Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing (EMDR) EMDR.com explains the process. Basically it reprograms your brain to dissociate the emotion from an event. It’s extremely helpful for all forms of PTSD. 🙂
How did going through the emdr therapy feel?
The first few weeks were ROUGH… soooooo much was brought up and I wanted to quit so many times. But it’s amazing how the process works through your trauma, separating the emotion from the event.
For about 3 days after each session you will feel everything again. But by the 4th or 5th day, the portion of your trauma you worked on during that session is suddenly easier to think about without breaking down.
It’s really the most indescribable experience.
Twitter Files Show How The Deep State Conquered Social Media
Matt Taibbi provides a summary of the recent revelations of Twitter manipulations in service of partisan government entities. The publication of the ‘Twitter files’ came in several Twitter threads from writers, left and right leaning ones, who had been given access to the files and internal Twitter communication.
Capsule Summaries of all Twitter Files Threads to Date, With Links and a Glossary
There have been 12 threads so far. Some of these are of special interest:
Twitter Files Part 1: December 2, 2022, by @mtaibbi
TWITTER AND THE HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP STORY
Recounting the internal drama at Twitter surrounding the decision to block access to a New York Post exposé on Hunter Biden in October, 2020.
Key revelations: Twitter blocked the story on the basis of its “hacked materials” policy, but executives internally knew the decision was problematic. “Can we truthfully claim that this is part of the policy?” is how comms official Brandon Borrman put it. Also: when a Twitter contractor polls members of Congress about the decision, they hear Democratic members want more moderation, not less, and “the First Amendment isn’t absolute.”
We will later learn that it was the FBI, which had the Hunter Biden laptop material and knew it was real, which pushed Twitter to censor the story by claiming that it was ‘Russian hacked’ material.
Twitter censorship:
Twitter Files Part 2, by @BariWeiss, December 8, 2022
TWITTER’S SECRET BLACKLISTS
Bari Weiss gives a long-awaited answer to the question, “Was Twitter shadow-banning people?” It did, only the company calls it “visibility filtering.” Twitter also had a separate, higher council called SIP-PES that decided cases for high-visibility, controversial accounts.
Key revelations: Twitter had a huge toolbox for controlling the visibility of any user, including a “Search Blacklist” (for Dan Bongino), a “Trends Blacklist” for Stanford’s Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, and a “Do Not Amplify” setting for conservative activist Charlie Kirk. Weiss quotes a Twitter employee: “Think about visibility filtering as being a way for us to suppress what people see to different levels. It’s a very powerful tool.” With help from @abigailshrier, @shellenbergermd, @nelliebowles, and @isaacgrafstein.
The above one is of special interest to me.
Until late 2021 my Twitter account @MoonofA, which I mostly use to promote my writings here, was not allowed to grow beyond 19,500 followers. There were also signs that tweets by me were not shown to users who were following me. After my account was released from the growth prison it rapidly grew to 47,500 followers in the fall of 2022. It then again went into growth prison for no discernible reason and without me getting any notice of it. Now anytime my follower count increases by 100 or so it will automatically be slashed back to 47,450 followers. There are also again signs that tweets from my account are again ‘shadowbanned’.
Yesterday @semperfidem2014 retweeted my latest:
Blue Check Brandon @semperfidem2004 – 21:27 UTC · Jan 5, 2023Well worth reading
Moon of Alabama @MoonofA · Jan 4New on MoA:
Ukraine – The Big Push To End The War
https://moonofalabama.org/2023/01/ukraine-the-big-push-to-end-the-war.html
Image
Then @New_Westphalian responded to @semperfidem2014;
New Westphalian @New_Westphalian – 21:47 UTC · Jan 5, 2023Replying to @semperfidem2004
If you hadn’t retweeted that, I doubt I’d have seen it. I follow MoA, never see a single tweet.
Not sure the cleanup has been entirely successful yet.
Well, I do not think that Elon Musk bought Twitter to do a ‘cleanup’. I believe he wants to use it for his own purposes whatever those may be. If it requires a new deal that gives government entities censoring access in exchange for whatever Musk’s wants or needs he will agree to that.
Back to Matt Taibbi’s summaries. Thread 3 to 5 were about Trump’s removal from Twitter. His account was locked despite the fact that he had not violated any of Twitter’s internal rules.
Thread 6 to 12 are about the government infiltration of Twitter from every angle, the Pentagon, the three letter agencies as well as various other entities started to censor free speech on Twitter:
Twitter Files Parts 11 and 12, by @mtaibbi, January 3, 2023HOW TWITTER LET THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY IN
and
TWITTER AND THE FBI “BELLY BUTTON”
These two threads focus respectively on the second half of 2017, and a period stretching roughly from summer of 2020 through the present. The first describes how Twitter fell under pressure from Congress and the media to produce “material” showing a conspiracy of Russian accounts on their platform, and the second shows how Twitter tried to resist fulfilling moderation requests for the State Department, but ultimately agreed to let State and other agencies send requests through the FBI, which agent Chan calls “the belly button of the USG.”
Revelations: at the close of 2017, Twitter makes a key internal decision. Outwardly, the company would claim independence and promise that content would only be removed at “our sole discretion.” The internal guidance says, in writing, that Twitter will remove accounts “identified by the U.S. intelligence community” as “identified by the U.S.. intelligence community as a state-sponsored entity conducting cyber-operations.” The second thread shows how Twitter took in requests from everyone — Treasury, HHS, NSA, FBI, DHS, etc. — and also received personal requests from politicians like Democratic congressman Adam Schiff, who asked to have journalist Paul Sperry suspended.
The big mainstream media have been quiet about the Twitter revelations. The New York Post and a few other right leaning outlets had a piece about the attempt to ban columnist Paul Sperry:
The journalist in question was Paul Sperry, a Post columnist who in January 2020 wrote an article for RealClearInvestigations about the purported “whistleblower” behind former President Donald Trump’s first impeachment, for which Schiff served as a House manager.In the article, Sperry said then-CIA analyst Eric Ciaramella was overheard talking in the White House with Sean Misko, a holdover staffer from former President Barack Obama’s administration.
A former official who reportedly heard the conversation told Sperry, “Just days after [Trump] was sworn in they were already trying to get rid of him.”
Misko later left the White House and joined the Intelligence Committee, which Schiff chaired, Sperry reported.
The email posted by Taibbi shows that Schiff’s office asked Twitter to take five specific steps that an unidentified company employee said were “related to alleged harassment from QAnon conspiracists.”
They included, “Remove any and all content about Mr. Misko and other Committee staff from its service — to include quotes, retweets, and reactions to that content.”
In response, another unidentified Twitter employee wrote, “no, this isn’t feasible/we don’t do that.”
Schiff’s office also asked for suspension of “the many accounts, including @GregRubini and @paulsperry_, which have repeatedly promoted false QAnon conspiracies and harassed” someone whose name is blacked out.
The Twitter employee responded to that by writing, “we’ll review these accounts again but I believe [name blacked out] mentioned only one actually qualified for suspension.”
In an email Tuesday, Sperry told The Post, “I have never promoted any ‘QAnon conspiracies.’ Ever. Not on Twitter. Not anywhere.”
“Schiff was just angry I outed his impeachment whistleblower and tried to get me banned,” he said. “I challenge Schiff to produce evidence to back up his defamatory remarks to Twitter.”
The only major and good piece written about the Twitter revelations I know of is by Lee Smith in the otherwise not readable Tablet Magazine:
How the FBI Hacked Twitter
The answer begins with Russiagate
This one is well researched and well written. It shows that the whole manipulation by the FBI was and is done in partisan interest with the war-mongering parts of the Democrats being the main beneficiary. The piece is quite long but I recommend to read it in full.
You may think that the paragraph below is exaggerated. However, the evidence following it fully supports the conclusion:
In fact, the FBI’s penetration of Twitter constituted just one part of a much larger intelligence operation—one in which the bureau offshored the machinery it used to interfere in the 2016 election and embedded it within the private sector. The resulting behemoth, still being built today, is a public-private consortium made up of U.S. intelligence agencies, Big Tech companies, civil society institutions, and major media organizations that has become the world’s most powerful spy service—one that was powerful enough to disappear the former president of the United States from public life, and that is now powerful enough to do the same or worse to anyone else it chooses.
All of this was build in secret. All of it can be secretly used against any target. It is also interesting that the fake issue of ‘Russiagate’, like the ‘Skripal affair’ in Britain, was to a large part the preparatory buildup to the current war in Ukraine.
While the Twitter files have now given us some knowledge of this they will not change anything. The Republicans are too weak, too corrupt and too susceptible to blackmail to seriously get into the depth of the whole issue.
Posted by b on January 6, 2023 at 17:26 UTC | Permalink
Ground Beef Stuffed Green Bell Peppers With Cheese
“We had these not too long ago and we both decided that they needed a little more seasoning. We put a little hot pepper sauce on them and they were much better. I would probably include 2 teaspoons in the meat mix the next time that I make them.”
Ingredients
- 6 large green peppers
- 1 lb beef, Ground
- 1⁄2 cup onion, Chopped
- 1 (16 ounce) can tomatoes, diced
- 1⁄2 cup long grain rice, any available rice is fine it may affect cooking time though
- 1 cup water
- 1 teaspoon salt
- 1 teaspoon Worcestershire sauce
- 1 cup cheddar cheese, Shredded (about 4 ounces)
Directions
- Cut off the tops of green peppers; discard seeds and membranes.
- Chop enough of the tops to make 1/4 cup, set aside.
- Cook the whole green peppers, uncovered in boiling water for about 5 minutes; invert to drain well.
- Sprinkle insides of the peppers lightly with salt.
- In a skillet cook ground beef, onion and 1/4 cup chopped pepper till meat is browned and vegetables are tender.
- Drain off excess fat. Add drained tomatoes, salt, Worcestershire, and a dash of pepper.
- in a separate pot put water bring to boil add rice cook until rice is soft. if needed add more water.
- add rice to beef mixture.
- Stir in cheese. Stuff peppers with meat mixture. Place in a 10x6x2 baking dish.
- Bake, covered in a 350 degree oven for 30 minutes. in the last 5 minutes add any remaining cheese to the top of the peppers.
What’s It Like To Know You Are Going To Die Soon?
How does it feel to know you are dying? That is a difficult question, because the answer can be different from day to day or even from hour to hour. The feeling, range from denial, to fear, to guilt, to anger, to sadness and to acceptance. It is the same, I suppose, as any grieving process. You can’t work your way through one set of feelings and neatly move on to the next.
It is almost like being at the beach, standing in the water on a windy day. A wave comes at you and almost knocks you off your feet. You struggle and regain your balance, just in time for the next wave to hit. Over time, the strength of the waves subside and you think your footing is a little more secure. Suddenly, out of seemingly no where another large wave hits and you almost loose your balance again.
I suppose that pretty much describes the grieving process for anything. You can be hit by wave after wave of denial or anger, what ever, each wave trying to knock you down. The emotional waves don’t hit in any particular order or strength. Gradually, these waves do lessen in strength or intensity and you come to the peacefulness of acceptance. You are still not out of the water, and at anytime a wave can suddenly come back and hit.
Over time these emotional waves become less frequent and less severe. For me acceptance came almost as a relief. Knowing, I would not have to deal with the roller coaster ride of emotions, the ups and downs. Am I totally free of these feelings, no. I don’t really know, if I ever will be totally free. As long as you are alive, how can you be totally free of your feelings? Accepting them is one, thing being free of them is another. The waves have just been downsized and more easily manageable.
Maybe, I am still in an element of denial. I know what the doctors have said and I accept that. I just don’t think it is going to happen any time soon. Is that denial or just the human spirit pushing us on? I don’t know. With acceptance does that mean I have given up? No. Does that mean I have lost the will to live? NO. All it means is I am ready to go when God calls me, but not one minute before that. I do not fear death, I just want to delay it as long as possible.
– Bill Howdle
They missed ‘Hotel California’ You check in but never check out
Image1-46. The text are part of the lyrics to Pink Floyds “Is there anybody in there” from the Wall album from memory. Thanks for todays post mate as always.
I was incorrect in regards to my previous post. The text from the add is in the lyrics of “Comfortably Numb” The Wall not ‘Is there anyboby out there”. Sorry https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=km8QHSxDc8c