You confine the cosmic truth of the snooze into a thesis statement? You try to quantify the vibe?

I’ve written about this before on the Q and it never gets old.

In 1938 Chester Carlson, a patent attorney and inventor, developed a process that would change the world. Trouble was the world didn’t want it.

The product would not make it to market until 1959.

In the late 1940’s, A man Named Joseph Wilson, the founder of Haloid Corporation, took a risk and invested in development of Mr. Carlson’s new device.

Almost a decade of struggle and a factory was financed for the production of the above. Wilson headed the executive team. Top finance people from New York and elsewhere committed millions to the project. The Business press, however, said “it would never succeed in the market.”

The factory started to churn out these machines. The market included every government and private institution in the world. In today’s dollars? It was a trillion dollar market.

Top sales management and field reps had been brought in, organized and sent out to get orders. An institution would use a group of twenty staff to produce this commodity product. It would take these employees up to an hour to produce what Mr. Carlson’s device could do in less than a minute.

The campaign commenced. Reps fanned out and called on the US government, General Motors, Bell Labs, Ford, IBM, Texaco, Harvard, Yale … everyone.

Nothing happened.

The machine was not selling. There were tens of millions and a decade of work into this innovation and sales were 20% of schedule.

Machines were piling up in the warehouse and the all too famous “meeting” was called. Anyone in start-ups knows what this meeting is.

It is labeled the “what the hell are we gonna do now?” meeting. Wilson, Carlson, heads of sales, finance, engineering and an addition. This man was an outsider brought in for his perspective on the pending catastrophe.

A $25,000 machine was a “capex” item. It had to be budgeted on a 12 month cycle. General Motors would need hundreds of the machines and that would be an enormous budget item to push through. The sales staff was despondent.

The meeting adjourned and the outsider said he’d get back the following week.

The original model was to produce the device and sell it directly to the users.

The outsider called and a meeting was held.

Engineering was instructed to attach a “counter” to each machine. Finance was instructed to redesign the revenue model to a “fee per unit used” of 3 cents. Sales was instructed to call on clients and ask where the device could be located, plug it in and inform the client the machine was free of charge – they would only be billed monthly for the numbers of copies used.

The client now had two choices to get a 15 page document duplicated. Bring it to the typing pool where typists would type an original with carbon paper between sheets for additional copies or walk over to the Xerox 914 copier and get a spotless copy in a couple of minutes which the company would pay for, no budget meeting, no requisition…no problem.

Xerox became the fastest growing technology company in history.

Original model $25,000 capital purchase.

Pivot

Successful model 3 cents a page…(service)

“The machine nobody knew they needed until they had one”

EDITS: Thanks for comments/responses. I’m not a Xerox/Haloid archivist, just a business person who, through study of Mr. Carlson, was always fascinated by the story. The almost two decade struggle to get the technology packaged and onto the market was quite simply, epic. Every top tech firm shot him down. Just about everyone everywhere, besides Haloid and the Batelle Memorial Institute, just wrote him off as an idiot.

The stats on the pivot to “service” from “equipment sale” have been requested and the issue is there were “stages.” The paper I read 20 years ago stated the machine would be placed in the customer’s office and the only charge was three cents a copy. Perhaps this was an early rendition. As the deal eventually became identical to the structure IBM used for their computers. The lease was $95/month and the first 2000 copies were free. After the free 2000? It became 5 cents a copy.

Ready for the Inflation adjustment? $250,000 per machine in today’s dollars.

Their proposal related to current method which, for the majority of customers, was a “secretarial pool.” My Mom was the head of administration for the department of investigation of the United States Army Air Corps Intelligence in 1944. Their department had to manage tens of thousands of background checks with mechanical typewriters and carbon paper. They needed four or five copies of everything. She laughs out loud when telling about pushing paper through a government agency. They had fifty women just in their section in Manhattan typing all day long. God bless’em!

With that picture in mind, what the copying machine’s proposal was about is about the same as “horses to cars”. The profundity of this new automation?

This $250,000 machine would replace 50 employees and do a much, much better job in less time.

Xerox simply didn’t know how large the market was for this machine. They assumed the lifetime market was in the 100,000 unit range…as above they were really expensive. That is an estimated $2.5B (today’s dollars) market for the device. Not too shabby.

Once they got it rolling? Xerox could not make them fast enough, their inability to assess the breadth of the market is shown here…They sold the “estimated 100,000 machine product lifetime” in six months! Now there’s a back log for ya.

The New York Times business editor attended the roll out for the machine and panned it. People simply didn’t understand that it was going to change the world.

Listen, you think the tech companies of today generated some wealth?

Xerox stock split 138 times.

Chester Carlson was worth $1.8B in today’s dollars.

Xerox developed the PC, the interface and the rest so that Jobs and Gates could claim they stole it from each other….when they just stole it from Xerox.

One of the first units is in the Smithsonian next to the light bulb and the cotton gin.

Pictures

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Question: Why is China’s Fujian aircraft carrier’s electric magnetic catapult system better than that of the USS Gerald Ford?

Answer:

The same reason a steel sword is better than a bronze one.

For an electrical engineer, it is quite easy to understand the difference between the two system, neither vessel has sufficient engine output to generate the required power meet the instantaneous power demand of a heavy EM catapult, so the additional power gotta come from somewhere else.

Note, power, not energy. Power is simply energy divided by time, so one Watt (power) is equal to one Joule (energy) per second (time). Middle school level physics.

In other words, the ship’s engine (be it nuclear or gas turbine) don’t really need to generate a lot of energy for the EM catapult, but the power at the seconds of launching aircraft must be high.


Now, why is Ford’s EM catapult the “bronze sword”? Because it is a AC-AC conversion system with flywheel for additional energy storage. This is power converter typically seen in early Cold War time period, where power converter technology for industrial motors are just taking shape. It is called a cycloconverter.

It is still used today where the motor is too big and the user can’t cough up the money for good capacitor or meet the power demand.

Cycloconverter – Wikipedia
Electrical circuit that changes AC frequency Topology of blocking mode cycloconverter [ 1 ] A cycloconverter ( CCV ) or a cycloinverter converts a constant amplitude, constant frequency AC waveform to another AC waveform of a lower frequency by synthesizing the output waveform from segments of the AC supply without an intermediate DC link ( Dorf 1993 , pp. 2241–2243 and Lander 1993 , p. 181). There are two main types of CCVs, circulating current type and blocking mode type, most commercial high power products being of the blocking mode type. [ 2 ] Whereas phase-controlled semiconductor controlled rectifier devices (SCR) can be used throughout the range of CCVs, low cost, low-power TRIAC -based CCVs are inherently reserved for resistive load applications. The amplitude and frequency of converters' output voltage are both variable. The output to input frequency ratio of a three-phase CCV must be less than about one-third for circulating current mode CCVs or one-half for blocking mode CCVs.( Lander 1993 , p. 188) [ 3 ] Output waveform quality improves as the pulse number of switching-device bridges in phase-shifted configuration increases in CCV's input. In general, CCVs can be with 1-phase/1-phase, 3-phase/1-phase and 3-phase/3-phase input/output configurations, most applications however being 3-phase/3-phase. [ 1 ] The competitive power rating span of standardized CCVs ranges from few megawatts up to many tens of megawatts. CCVs are used for driving mine hoists , rolling mill main motors, [ 4 ] ball mills for ore processing, cement kilns , ship propulsion systems, [ 5 ] slip power recovery wound-rotor induction motors (i.e., Scherbius drives) and aircraft 400 Hz power generation. [ 6 ] The variable-frequency output of a cycloconverter can be reduced essentially to zero. This means that very large motors can be started on full load at very slow revolutions, and brought gradually up to full speed. This is invaluable with, for example, ball mills , allowing starting with a full load rather than the alternative of having to start the mill with an empty barrel then progressively load it to full capacity. A fully loaded "hard start" for such equipment would essentially be applying full power to a stalled motor. Variable speed and reversing are essential to processes such as hot-rolling steel mills. Previously, SCR-controlled DC motors were used, needing regular brush/commutator servicing and delivering lower efficiency. Cycloconverter-driven synchronous motors need less maintenance and give greater reliability and efficiency. Single-phase bridge CCVs have also been used extensively in electric traction applications to for example produce 25 Hz power in the U.S. and 16 2/3 Hz power in Europe. [ 7 ] [ 8 ] Whereas phase-controlled converters including CCVs are gradually being replaced by faster PWM self-controlled converters based on IGBT, GTO, IGCT and other switching devices, these older classical converters are still used at the higher end of the pow

And the flywheel is a literally a giant metallic wheel which spins and when it decelerates, it feed power back into the grid to give the catapult a temporarily power boost.

The cycloconverter itself is already harder to control since you gotta deal with complex controls over the thyristors firing and add a decelerating flywheel on top of it, you are asking for trouble.

That’s why most of the manufacturing industry don’t use them anymore.

The solution to the cycloconverter problem? Simply, add in a DC bus bar between the two AC power converters and attach sufficient capacitor onto them and you create a AC-DC-AC setup.

With the DC bus bar acting as the central temporary power storage, the energy is stored as electrical charges and readily available, so the output side power converter as draw as much power as it needs. Since the overall energy requirement for the catapult isn’t high, all the engine has to do is spend a few moments charging up the capacitor (while the aircraft move into position), then the catapult launches, deplete the capacitors, rinse and repeat for the next one.

The bonus is that with DC bus bar and capacitor as the energy storage, you got rid of all the harmonics, background noise, etc. So the output is smooth and exactly as you want.

There is only problem————you gotta have the technology to build that central DC power storage section of the system. Due to the immense instantaneous power requirement and limited space onboard an aircraft carrier, you must have duration capacitors that can both charge and discharge quickly and hold a large amount of energy.

This is what commonly referred to as super capacitor. They are used in many industrial applications, such as power grid stability, electrical car fast charging, etc.

And guess which nation is the leading one in all these technologies.

This is why Fujian’s catapult is a “steel” sword vs Ford’s “bronze” sword. A steel sword isn’t shaped very differently from a bronze one and their main difference is simply in the raw material and the technology to produce such raw material.


So this is why all the accusation of “stealing it from US” is completely idiocy. Ford’s problem is that US just don’t have the necessary technology to build an AC-DC-AC catapult while China has the technology to do it.

Oh, fun fact, US don’t the technology to build new steam catapult either, as the last of the US companies that make those went bankrupt a couple of years back. So the only companies that still do have the technology to build steam catapult is located…in China.

Yes, the Chinese has work steam catapults as well. The mechnical requirement for steam catapult is actually higher than that of the EM catapult, because in order for pneumatic system to operate, a lot more manufacturing precision (such as welding and sealing the tubes for steam over a long distance) is required. And guess who has the largest manufacturing industry in the world.


The bigger picture is that we are currently in that transition time period that US no longer has a competitive overall industry to China. This time period may not be long by history standard, since a few decades is nothing comparing to thousands of years of human history. But to the individual human being right in the middle of that transition, it can take up the entire time period for your world view to form. So a lot of people, particularly the Americans, just can’t reconcile the difference between their already formed world view and the ever evolving reality.

It is not just in technology either. A lot of the rhetoric today is that “lots of talented Americans went to finance” and “we moved our manufacturing to China”. No, those are not the accurate description. The actual reality is that since Nixon was forced to stop US’ sanction on China back in 1973 in exchange for China’s help against USSR, the Chinese product become rapidly more competitive in the western market, so by the 1990s, any US manufacturer who isn’t using a Chinese supplier just can’t stay competitive and by the 2020s, US manufacturer located in US just can’t stay competitive period.

People don’t “went to finance industry” or “moved manufacturing”, the Chinese simply out-competed US and the US financial sector still remains because China hasn’t touched those yet. And that’s not going to last forever either, as USD is rapidly losing its status as the global reserve currency against the RMB.

It wasn’t the job itself. It was part of the job that sucked.

Big time.

Overall, McDonald’s really wasn’t that bad of a gig. Especially when your friends worked there.

It could even be fun. Like piling a comically high mountain of diced onions on a cheeseburger if a customer asked for extra. Or stuffing a 6-piece chicken nugget box with six plastic Halloween Happy Meal toys instead.

Like I said, it wasn’t that bad of a gig.

Until Alan, my boss, showed up. Then it was always bad news.

“A kid pissed in the playground again.”

Dammit. He didn’t even have to ask me anymore. Being the scrawniest teenage punk at the restaurant, I knew it was destiny.

So I’d go get out the hose. Screw on the sanitizer attachment. Crawl my way through winding plastic tunnels looking for a puddle hoping it hadn’t smeared its way through the entire thing by some snot-nosed kid waiting on his cheeseburger.

I hated it.

They didn’t even let me go home early for jumping on the pee-grenade.

Nope.

They’d stick me right back in the drive-thru serving Big Macs and milkshakes to unsuspecting customers who had no clue that 15 minutes earlier I was cleaning piss out of the PlayPlace.

But if you think that’s bad, nothing was more degrading than the time Alan came up to me with an unusually odd expression mixed with pity and guilt…

I stood there waiting for the worst.

I didn’t have to wait long…

“A kid just crapped in the ball pit.”

Feteer bel Asaag
(Pastry with Ground Meat – Egypt)

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Ingredients

  • 1 large onion chopped
  • 1 pound super lean ground beef
  • 2 tablespoons olive oil
  • 1 1/2 cups water
  • Salt and pepper
  • 1/2 cup chopped almonds or walnuts (optional)
  • 1/2 cup (1 stick) butter, melted
  • 1 egg
  • 1/2 cup milk (skim milk if you like)
  • 1 package frozen filo dough sheets (thawed overnight)

Instructions

  1. Sauté the onion in the oil until it changes color to dark yellow.
  2. Add the meat and brown it then add the water, salt and pepper and let it cook until all the water has evaporated. If you decide to use nuts add them at this time.
  3. Open the filo dough package and divide the sheets in half.
  4. In a greased 13 x 9 x 3 inch baking dish layer 2 to 3 sheets at a time and sprinkle them with a few drops of the melted butter, and so on until you finish the first half of the sheets.
  5. Spread the meat and nut mixture on it and start doing the same thing with the other half of the sheets. Don’t worry about spreading the butter on the sheets. When you finish with all the dough cut the feteer in 2 x 1 inch squares with a sharp knife.
  6. Mix together the left-over melted butter, the egg and the milk and a pinch of salt (not much) beat it with fork. At this point, if you want, you can wrap the dish in plastic wrap and refrigerate until 1/2 hr before it is time to eat.
  7. Pour the egg mixture gently over the feteer and bake, uncovered, in a 375 degrees F oven for about 20 minutes or until the milk is absorbed and the feteer turns golden yellow.

Would You Make It Through Day One of the Apocalypse?

I had a girl from Basingstoke in England come and stay with us once in 2012 and when she was planning her trip she casually said ……”If we hire a car at Uluru (Ayers Rock) in Central Australia and leave at 8.00am what time in the afternoon will we get to Adelaide”? After I finished laughing I said “If you add another day you should make it by 5.00pm on the second day”!!

People from Europe have no concept of the size, the scale of Australia. To drive across Australia from Sydney to Perth is longer than a drive from London in England to Cairo in Egypt!

This is a trip I do 3 times a year from Adelaide in South Australia to Sydney on the East coast of Australia. By the shortest road route it is 1,360 Kms, (845 miles). And all I am actually driving is across the bottom corner of the continent.

Now if you drive consistently at the country road speed limit of 110 Kph (67 miles per hour) and have 2 stops of 15 minutes each along the way it would take you 14 + hours to drive that distance. I just recently did it in a single drive, I left Wollongong on the east coast at 7.30 am and I arrived home at Mt Barker that evening at 8.00 pm after gaining back 30 minutes crossing the border from Eastern standard time to central standard time ……a 13 hour drive. I had 2 toilet stops of less than 5 minutes each and ate as I drove. I can tell you that is a serious drive to do in one day, particularly when you have to be ever vigilant for wildlife (Kangaroos, Emu’s) that might stray onto the road surface.

Anyone who can drive from Melbourne to Sydney in 9–10 hours having a couple of stops along the way is seriously driving at the speed limit I can assure you!

Cheers……..Rob.