Tag: provoke

Again, yet again, MM here addresses the things that no one ever talks about. And in this case we are taking up the real whale; the massive, titanic-sized “elephant in the room”. While just virtually all of the American media press is gung-ho for a war against China (and assumes that China will be alone), no one is talking about the consequences of such a war.

Nothing surprises me, the more successful China becomes the greater the lies. 

-Roger

As the clueless media and their readership assumes that the United States will win any war that it starts in Asia. (Or actually, that it will be a long decades long war, and life would go on without any impact on their own lives.) No one talks about the rightful consequences of a war effort gone terribly wrong…

But we will.

The United States will lose.

And it will lose BIGLY.

And, it’s not just me saying this. It’s RAND, Heritage Foundation, the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies and every single one of the military war games (for the last 18 years), the military think tanks, and the “big buck” experts in Washington DC. As well as all of the generals in charge of the American military.

America would lose.

I have discussed over and over, and over again, why the United States would lose. Don’t want to hear this, do you? Well, tough cookies. Here, we talk about things as they actually are, not as we want them to be. If you are a new comer to MM, you might want to take a refresher course in actual current affairs here…

New Beginnings 2

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What do I mean about “could lose” a war?

According to US analysts, by 2025 the USA won’t be able to win a war against China. 

Frankly, I think that this ship has already sailed a long, long, LONG time ago.  

However, that semi-admission is a desperate attempt to create the political climate to circle the wagons before China officially becomes the second nation the USA cannot defeat.

The first one being, obviously, Russia (I would even include Iran and the DPRK is that list). 

Hence all the current Anglo posturing in the Black Sea (which is even far more dangerous for US/NATO ships than the China Seas) is just that: posturing. 

The main risk here is that I am not at all convinced by the notion that “Biden” can rein in the Brits or the Poles, especially since the latter are both NATO members who would sincerely expect NATO to protect them (they should ask Erdogan about that). 

But, of course, there really is no such thing as “NATO”: all there is the US and its vassal states in Europe. 

Should the two wannabe empires trigger a real, shooting war, all it would take is a single Russian conventional missile strike somewhere deep inside the continental USA (even in a desert location) to convince the White House, the Pentagon or the CIA “get with the program” and seek a negotiated solution, leaving the Brits and the Poles utterly disgusted and looking foolish. 

I don’t think anything else can bring those two countries back to a sense of reality. 

-Andrei

From The Saker;

Why concentrate on hybrid/unlimited war instead of an outright nuclear or conventional military conflict between the US and China and/or Russia?

That is because both conventional and nuclear military conflict between any of these three nations is an insane, suicidal choice, while those in charge of defining military strategy are specifically not selected for their suicidal tendencies.

Neither Russia nor China are known for their wars of aggression, and while the US is extremely well known for its homicidal, violent tendencies (having carried out 32 bombing campaigns on 24 countries since World War II), it is fundamentally a bully, only picking on weak countries that pose no threat.

And… it (because of the non-stop demonetization of China) thinks that China is weak enough to pick on.

Based on publicly available information, both Russia and China are now quite far ahead of the US in weapons development, to a point where any possible direct US attack on either of them would be [1] self-disarming at best and [2] suicidal at worst.

Its like when the schoolyard bully realizes he can't bully you anymore, so now he just throws slurs and insults instead of punches. After a while he loses all credibility and starts being ignored. A couple of decades later you go to a school reunion and he is the loser that no one wants to talk to. That reunion was sweet ....

Posted by: Roger | Nov 19 2021 17:20 utc | 16

[1] In the best case scenario, the US launches an attack which is successfully repelled: bombers and rockets shot down, ships sunk, US military bases and port facilities destroyed, possibly US command and control centers also destroyed, as quite pointedly promised by Putin.

The US then lays prostrate and at the mercy of its opponents.

If its cooperation still leaves something to be desired, some combination of deplorables, despicables, imponderables and indecipherables will be organized just enough to make a bloody mess of what’s left of US government structures and power elites, which will then be replaced with an international peacekeeping force (as an optimistic case) or just left to persist in durable disorder, misery and international isolation.

[2] The worst case scenario is the tired old mutual assured destruction, nuclear winter and end of life on Earth, but it is unlikely for a number of reasons.

First, of the US nuclear deterrent triad only the submarine component remains viable, and even it is quite tired.

Aside from a single Minuteman missile launch test most hasn’t been tested in decades, and these are ballistic missiles which, once the boost phase is over, follow a perfectly predictable inertial trajectory.

This makes them easy targets for Russia’s and China’s new air defense systems.

Of the Minutemen that manage to get out of their silos and launch in the general direction of Russia or China, it is unknown how many of their nuclear payloads would actually detonate since these are all quite old and haven’t been tested in a long time either.

The US no longer has the ability to make new nuclear charges, having lost the recipe for making the high explosive needed to make them detonate. But that may be a moot point, since at this point no ICBM is likely to be able to penetrate Russian air defenses. Both Russia and China have state of the art formidable anti-ICBM systems. video

As far as Chinese air defenses, it is notable that Russia and China have integrated their early warning systems and China now has four divisions of Russian S-400 Triumph air defense systems and is planning to add more. video

Turning to the airborne part of the US nuclear triad, its mainstay is still the Boeing B-52 Stratofortress, the youngest of which is almost 60 years old. It cruises at 260 knots at an altitude of 34000 feet and is the opposite of stealthy, making it easy to shoot down at a stand-off distance of several hundred kilometers. Since this makes it perfectly useless for dropping bombs, all that remains is cruise missiles, which fly at a positively poky 0.65 Mach, again making them easy targets for modern air defenses.

There are also some newer stealth bombers—very few and, it has turned out, not too stealthy, putting them essentially in the same category as the Stratofortress, and the cruise missiles they can launch are also those same old subsonic ones.

Lastly, there are the strategic nuclear submarines, which are the only part of the US nuclear triad that is still viable. They remain effective as a deterrent, and they do have the ability to get up close to launch a sneak attack with a good chance that at least a few of the missiles will get through the air defenses, but they can’t possibly hope to get around the inevitability of retaliation which will cause unacceptable, fatal damage to the continental US. This makes them useless as an offensive weapon.

The uncloaking, and damage to the USS Connecticut, is worth a good study in this regard. HERE.

Add to this Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine, according to which any attack against Russian sovereign territory or Russian sovereign interests, whether conventional or nuclear, would open the door to a nuclear retaliation, launched upon warning, and Putin’s solemn promise to counterattack not just against the locations from which a strike is launched but against the centers of decision-making.

Considering that Russian missiles are hypersonic and will reach their targets before those of the US reach theirs, and that Russia has the means to shoot down US missiles while the US is unable to shoot down Russian ones, if the US were to launch an attack, those who launched it would be dead before they could find out whether their attack succeeded in causing any damage at all or whether they had just suicided themselves for nothing.

The “Punch Line”

All of this adds up to an inevitable conclusion: under no circumstances will the US attack either Russia or China, using either conventional or nuclear weapons. To do so would result in nuclear annihilation. And for a weakened nation such as the United States is today, it’s wouldn’t take too much to throw it into absolute chaos.

Only an idiot would consider such an action.

However, there are experts who are of the opinion that a world war could spontaneously erupt at any moment without anyone wishing it to do so, just as the world slid into World War I due to a confluence of unhappy accidents. But there is a big difference: the military and civilian leaderships of the warring sides in World War I did not have hypersonic missiles pointed directly at their heads.

They thought that the war would be fought far away from their palaces, headquarters and stately mansions. They were, in some cases, quite wrong, but that was their thought originally: why not test our industrial prowess while sacrificing the lives of several million useless peasants?

Now the situation is quite different: any substantial provocation is an automatic self-destruct trigger and all sides know this.

Especially against Asia.

Pilger is bouncing a few examples of Western anti-China drivel off a Chinese historian. The historian gets a bit impatient and says (words to the effect):

"Look, China doesn't want to take over the world or tell other countries how to behave. In fact we built the Great Wall to keep the barbarians OUT!"

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Nov 19 2021 18:24 utc | 23

Of course, there will be minor provocations such as the US Navy steaming around in the Taiwan Strait or the Black Sea close to the shores of Crimea, but then they do have to earn their keep somehow.

In turn, the Russians and the Chinese will periodically up the ante a little bit by shooing them away with a harshly worded radio message or a few shots fired across their bows. But both sides know just how careful they have to be because any serious error will require immediate deescalation and may entail major loss of face.

And that, as the saying goes, would be worse than a crime: it would be a vast mistake.

The USA Leadership are idiots

And at that, we can see that no matter how much we can parse the issues; no matter how many times we can study the calculus; no matter how many times we can say “nah, no one would be that stupid to risk a war”, we see the United States doing just that.

All part of the required reverberations for the "drum beat of war".

Making the public recognize and demonize an enemy is a requirement! Step by step, little by little.

Don't think there is a war on the way? Just look around at the chaos, misinformation and pursuit of control.

Don't think others hear the drum beat? Read here: https://thesaker.is/russian-options-in-a-world-headed-for-war/
Posted by: James Cook | Nov 19 2021 17:04 utc | 5

The provocations against China are getting more and more outrageous, outlandish and dangerous. This is intentional, and it is not going to end up well.

The calculus so far assumes reasonable people would be in charge of the Leadership of the West. But that variable is “thrown out the window”, the United States and their proxy nations are all run by imbeciles and they are dancing on top of nuclear armageddon.

The Chinese military is dangerous

Here’s a training exercise. Hey! Do you see any cheap AK-47 / SKS clones here? Do you see uneducated peasants? Do you see any starving people that was all that delicious freedom and democracy out of America? VIDEO

And they start training in first grade. Military discipline is part of their lives.

Listen to me. They will not be nice. VIDEO.

Here’s some third grade students showing first grade students how to assemble and handle rifles, and weapons. VIDEO. It’s a long video at 83MB, but WELL worth the watch. I recorded it while watching my little girls, so sorry about the chit-chat in the background.

Please pay attention to what is going on. Third grade students doing this. 9 years old. We see them teaching the first and second graders in basic squad movement and behaviors. VIDEO.

We will discuss the consequences of the loss of the United States to Asia

In this article we will assume the following…

• The United States is successful in triggering a war with China. After all, it has been non-stop provocations for years now. It’s not like China has an aircraft carrier off Boston harbor. Sooner or later there WILL be a response. And it won’t be a subtle hint like the USS Connecticut affair, either.

And, what is omitted from American media (and Conservative) articles and discussions on this subject…

• Russia and China work together to fight the USA as they said they would.
• Nuclear weapons would be used as they said they would.
• The “war” would be short and devastating. Per war game results.
• The “war” would be on Asian terms, not defined by America. Per war game results.
• First use of nuclear weapons occurs. Per Russian military doctrine.

We will also ignore the ruin and destruction in the rest of the world. This article is not about Israel, Europe, the Ukraine, China, or Japan. This article is about what would happen to the United States once it lost a war.

It would be a first.

And, it would be painful.

Some history…

To understand this article you have to understand history.

America has never lost in a war. The closest to losing a war is what the Confederate States experienced when the South lost the American Civil War. And using that as a template, as well as the pain and anguish that both Russia and China has experienced over the last ten centuries or so, we can compile up a pretty comprehensive picture of what to expect.

So don’t yell at me.

You all should have read a history book or two while you were in school. None of this should be new. The only difference here is that I am providing a reminder that YOU are right now, living in a historical moment. And that moment can have enormous consequences.

We are teetering on the very sharp edge of a very thin line, with a deep abyss on both side.

And using this history, we can compile a listing of potential things to expect to occur once America loses World War III.

Brace yourself…

New borders

Every losing nation ends up having it’s geographical boarders redrawn. For a large nation such as the United States, we would see the entire nation carved up into separate “Protectorates.”

• Hawaii would be it’s own Protectorate.
• Alaska might be returned to Russia.
• Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands will become a Protectorate.
• Texas would be carved up. Part would go to Mexico. The other half would be a Protectorate.
• California would be carved up. Part would go to Mexico. The remaining sections carved up into protectorates.
• The remaining states on the continental United States would be reshaped into ten to 25 individual protectorates.

No existing State would be permitted to retain it’s borders.

Think about what happened to Poland after World War I, and then again after World War II. Think about what happened to Africa when the British colonial power left it. Thank about what happened when the “White Settlers” colonized North America.

Protectorate laws

As a “Protectorate” the region would function under the rules and laws of the conquering nation. This would vary from protectorate to protectorate. But some things will be constant.

• A protectorate can ONLY trade with it’s physical neighbor.
• A protectorate cannot have a standing army, navy, air force, space forces.
• A protectorate must pay tribute to the conquering nation. This historically consists of a lump sum, plus a very high annual tax born by the inhabitants.
• A protectorate would do anything the conquering nation demands.

New Government

The federal United States government would be crushed, destroyed, and any mention of any former leaders retaining power would be harshly suppressed.

For a new world out of the old, all old and former government influences are to be extinguished. Buildings would be destroyed, historical monuments raised, and all history rewritten. This is not just on the Federal level, but on the state and local levels as well. Everything would be raised and then altered beyond recognition, and a new command and control government structure rebuilt upon the ashes of the former.

Each protectorate will be told (by the conquering nation) what government it shall have. Some will become theocracies. Such as the “Bible Belt States”. Others will become quaizi-republics. Still others will be dictatorships, and others will simply be socialist based government structures.

All will use the police forces to enforce their new laws, rules and regulations.

New laws

There will be new laws. All of the old laws will be discarded. This will be everything from divorce law to business law, to patent law and criminal law. The laws specified by the protectorate will be determined by the conquering nation. You can expect a very harsh social credit scoring system, and the harshest penalties for non-compliance.

They can be arbitrary, vindictive, and capricious.

• Loss of a leg for drinking alcohol.
• Beheading for jay-walking.
• Death for showing disrespect.
• Penis removal for wearing shoes on Sunday.

Non-compliance is often death.

Ownership will change drastically

You may suddenly discover that the home you live in has been seized for “public housing”, a “museum”, or a barracks. That your factory where you work is now under new management and everything is being disassembled and shipped elsewhere, or that the apartment complex that you rent out of is now being turned into hospital.

What’s more, you might be granted 24 hours to gather your belongings and leave… if you are lucky.

Ownership takes on a new meaning when the world is turned upside down, and you are on the losing side. And now you will have to obey your new masters. Imagine that these people were now YOUR local government authority…

Quality of life will plunge

Sure, you might have three cars, two motorcycles and live in a McMansion. But all that means nothing when you have a social credit score so low that you are not authorized to drive, purchase gasoline, or use electricity.

What are you going to do? Hide in your house for months?

Many people will find themselves plunged from “Middle Class” into the world of the sub-slave. Today, the United States is a stratified, balkanized society with nine social classes. After conquest, many will find themselves at the lower “bottom feeder” social classes.

9 Social Classes

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And let’s not even talk about the lifestyle changes for those who expect running water, electricity, access to a cell phone and radio. All these things can, and probably will, be subject to the whims of the new protectorate government.

The USD will collapse and be replaced

One of the first casualties of any war will be the total and complete collapse of the “house of cards” known as the United States Dollar. It’s kept alive on vapor, dreams, hope and frantic, fanatical spending. During a war, and afterwards, these pieces of paper will have zero value.

And unless you have something tangible, and not other vapor-currency like bit-coin, you will suddenly become penniless. Then what are you going to use for trade and commerce when your stomach is growling, and you need heat, water, electricity and a meal in your gut?

What are you going to barter with?

An x-box when there is no electricity? A car when there’s no access to gasoline? Your collection of Pokemon cards?

More than likely it will be a service that you, or your family can provide to others. Do they have the necessary training? Or will they need to receive on-the-job training to meet the needs of others during a SHTF scenario?

Think sex, manual labor, or other undesirable activities.

Rights become zero

Forget about the “Bill of Rights”.

You will be a slave. Slaves have no Rights. It’s a historical norm.

Sure it is pretty much meaningless today, but in this scenario, it not only doesn’t exist, but it would be ignored BY LAW. If you think that you have the right to think, speak, dream or practice your religion… then think again.

It will be OVER. And non-compliance would mean death. It’s a historical norm.

Conquered people do not have Rights. They are slaves, servants, or chattel.

Deal with this historical fact.

Places will be renamed

The water-filled crater formerly known as New York City will be renamed “Commode”. Washington DC will become “Fresh Vomit”, and San Francisco will become “Fagland”.

This means different things to different people. But with the renaming of places will come with an entire different understanding of geography. Maps will all be different, and along with it will be the associated perceptions.

Restrictions become many

There will be all sorts of restrictions on everything. The inhabitants of the conquered territories will need to ask permission to do anything and everything. Failure to get the correct permissions, permits, or pay the necessary fees will result in the harshest measures possible.

Driving a car. Traveling. Ownership of a bicycle, access to a bridge. Crossing a border will all be illegal.

And that’s just for movement.

Think about food, clothing and shelter. All will be restricted access. You will be told where to live, what to eat, how to behave, how to dress, what to do, and whether or not you are paid for your labors.

History will be rewritten

Typically all history books and records are burned, destroyed and eliminated. The teachers killed, and a new history constructed to fit the needs of the new ruler class.

Think about the reeducation camps for the teachers and intellectuals in South Vietnam when the North Vietnam took over Saigon (now, Ho Chi Men city.) Think about what happened in Cambodia with the “killing fields”. Think about what happened to the Polish in the Katyn Forest massacre.

The Katyn massacre, also known as the zbrodnia katyńska ('Katyń crime'), was a mass execution of Polish POW officers and citizens ordered by the Soviet authorities in 1940. The most widely accepted estimate of the number of dead is about 22,000. The victims were murdered in the Katyn forest, Kalinin ( Tver) and Kharkiv prisons, and elsewhere. 

-Katyń

Prison camps / rape camps / mass torture complexes

There will be segregation of people into locations. Then new jobs, activities, and tasks will be assigned to them depending on their utility.

Men typically are used either for fertilizer (killed outright in mass graves) or as slaves.It is very rare for a male to survive within a conquered land. They are viewed as a viable threat vector and eliminated in mass. Though, exceptions can occur based on their skills or knowledge.

Women are almost always earmarked as sex toys. Historically the women that manage to survive in this role age from 12/14 to up to 30. Older than that, then they are killed.

All of the women will be dehumanized, raped and sent off to “collection centers”. There they will be provided dehumanizing clothing and attire, and raped until they are of no further use.

Everyone, and every moment will be documented to excess. It doesn’t matter if it was the Nazi’s with the Jews, the Soviets with other Soviets, the Khmer Rouge with their fellow citizens, or Americans against Americans. Each person will be interviewed, indexed, photographed, sheared, and categorized prior to execution.

Know your history.

Children are typically killed. Older people are also typically killed. Pets tend to be eaten.

Schools will change

Historically schools are eliminated, and then when they do reappear, access is severely curtailed and limited. The subjects and information taught in the schools also change as well.

Know your history.

It’s not all boring you know.

Important cities will be erased

If a city manages to survive the war, and the attacks, it will not be spared when the occupation forces arrive.

The Japanese “rape of Nanjing” in China is one such example.

Nanjing was “occupied” by the Japanese when Japan conquered the region. Then then decided to torture and kill every single person in that entire city.

The entire city was rounded up, tortured and killed by the Japanese occupation forces. Many such examples of this occur throughout history.

Have you ever wondered what happened to the American Indians that lived in such places as Kittanning, PA, or Oswego, NY? All erased from history. Their cities plowed under and now exist as State Game Lands, farm land or parking lots.

Cultural landmarks will be destroyed

Expect such landmarks as Mount Rushmore to be dynamited, The statue of liberty to be torn down and used as scrap metal, the San Francisco bridge to be destroyed, and the iconic White House to be leveled into dust.

A new “privileged class” will arise

Those “bottom feeders” in society, who have obtained power and control over groups of people, such as urban ghetto enclaves will often be granted special powers and abilities. They will use these powers to control people, places and things in the new protectorates.

Urban groups will seize control of the cities.

Drug gangs will seize entire geographical areas.

Restrictions on movement, attire, and activity

Seemingly random restrictions will appear and will be mandatory. Such as not being allowed to wear camouflaged clothing, shoes, use a cell phone or use a cigarette lighter. Certain areas may forbid the use of automobiles, and the access of grains, apples, seeds, or corn could mean a death sentence.

Conclusion

Pretty terrible, huh?

Well then, WHY THE FUCK IS THE UNITED STATES TRYING TO PROVOKE A WAR with both China and Russia simultaneously? Are they out of their minds? Because sooner or later, when you poke a lion it will snap back.

Sooner…

…or, later.

So here is what you all have to look forward to unless things change. You cannot continue to act like a bully when you walk into a gang of Hell’s Angels (hard core bikers). They will not be nice.

Summary

Once a war starts, it will only be a matter of time before the United States collapses and is occupied by the rest of the world. During that time, the nation will be broken up, tortured, abused, redefined, purged, and the lives of Americans will be worth nothing.

That’s what you get when your government is corrupt and your leaders are dysfunctional.

The ONLY way to prevent this nightmare scenario is for America to stop trying to provoke a war with Asia, and start trying to reform itself. Though to expect that to actually happen is very, very unlikely.

Do you want more?

You can find more articles related to this in my latest index; A New Beginning. And in it are elements of the old, some elements regarding the transition, and some elements that look towards the future.

New Beginnings 2

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